{"schema_version": "alpha.fed_supply.v1", "module": "alpha_fed_supply", "model_version": "public-usda-14-day-ensemble-1.0.0", "status": "PASS", "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "live_trade_status": "DISABLED", "decision_use": "DISPLAY_RESEARCH_CONTEXT", "max_points": 0, "trade_mode": "RESEARCH CONTEXT ONLY \u2014 NO EXECUTION EFFECT", "as_of_ct": "2026-07-20T16:05:05.946648-05:00", "definition": "Estimated fed cattle available for marketing during the next 14 calendar days.", "not_definition": "Not a feedlot showlist, inventory census, or proprietary third-party reproduction.", "horizon_days": 14, "signal": "755,032 HEAD / NEXT 14 DAYS | RANGE 687,029-864,000", "bias": "FED SUPPLY AVAILABILITY", "reason": "Median of 4 independent public-USDA anchors. The displayed range is the lowest-to-highest anchor, not a confidence interval.", "estimate_head": 755032, "low_head": 687029, "high_head": 864000, "confidence": "MEDIUM", "valid_anchor_count": 4, "combination": "MEDIAN_NOT_SUM", "anchors": [{"id": "cof_run_rate", "label": "COF marketing run rate", "status": "PASS", "value_head": 700452, "formula": "latest monthly marketings * 14 / calendar days in activity month", "inputs": {"marketings_head": 1551000, "calendar_days": 31, "activity_month": "2026-05-01"}, "freshness": {"state": "CURRENT", "age_calendar_days": 32, "warn_days": 32, "stale_days": 40}, "source": "USDA NASS Cattle on Feed"}, {"id": "lm_ct142_flow", "label": "Slaughter Pipeline \u2014 Committed/Delivered", "status": "PASS", "value_head": 687029, "formula": "((national committed + national delivered) / 2) * 2 weeks", "inputs": {"committed_head": 338539, "delivered_head": 348490, "report_date": "2026-07-20"}, "freshness": {"state": "CURRENT", "report_age_calendar_days": 0, "hours_since_publication": 4.9, "stale_after_calendar_days": 8, "newer_incomplete_report_dates": []}, "source": "USDA AMS LM_CT142"}, {"id": "placement_cohort_maturity", "label": "Placement-cohort maturity", "status": "PASS", "value_head": 809613, "formula": "normal maturity kernel by placement-weight bucket, then trailing-24-month median calibration", "inputs": {"target_live_weight_lbs": 1450, "adg_lbs_per_day": 3.5, "calibration_factor": 0.974318}, "freshness": {"cattle_on_feed": {"state": "CURRENT", "age_calendar_days": 32, "warn_days": 32, "stale_days": 40}, "weekly_weight": {"state": "CURRENT", "age_calendar_days": 10, "warn_days": 14, "stale_days": 21}}, "source": "USDA NASS Cattle on Feed + USDA AMS weekly live weight"}, {"id": "fed_slaughter_pace", "label": "Fed steer/heifer slaughter pace", "status": "PASS", "value_head": 864000, "formula": "median of latest four non-holiday steer-plus-heifer slaughter weeks * 2", "inputs": {"latest_period_end": "2026-07-04", "latest_value_head": 371300, "nonholiday_sample": [{"period_end": "2026-06-06", "value_head": 435800}, {"period_end": "2026-06-13", "value_head": 428200}, {"period_end": "2026-06-20", "value_head": 427800}, {"period_end": "2026-06-27", "value_head": 436000}], "excluded_recent_holiday_weeks": [{"period_end": "2026-05-30", "value_head": 363500, "holiday": "Memorial Day"}, {"period_end": "2026-07-04", "value_head": 371300, "holiday": "Independence Day"}], "median_weekly_head": 432000, "freshness": {"state": "CURRENT", "age_calendar_days": 16, "warn_days": 21, "stale_days": 35}}, "freshness": {"state": "CURRENT", "age_calendar_days": 16, "warn_days": 21, "stale_days": 35}, "source": "USDA NASS QuickStats slaughter by class"}], "diagnostics": {"on_feed_head": 11682000, "estimate_pct_on_feed": 6.46, "slaughter_coverage_weeks": 1.75, "committed_minus_delivered_head": -9951, "committed_to_delivered_ratio": 0.971}, "cohort_model": {"window_start": "2026-07-20", "window_end_exclusive": "2026-08-03", "raw_maturity_head": 830953, "calibration": {"method": "TRAILING_24_COMPLETED_MONTH_MEDIAN_ACTUAL_TO_RAW", "sample_count": 24, "first_activity_month": "2024-05-01", "last_activity_month": "2026-05-01", "raw_factor": 0.974318, "factor": 0.974318, "factor_cap": [0.75, 1.35], "in_sample_median_absolute_error_pct": 6.5}, "calibrated_head": 809613, "target_live_weight_lbs": 1450, "assumed_adg_lbs_per_day": 3.5, "dispersion_days": 30, "placement_date_rule": "activity-month first day plus 14 days", "components": [{"bucket": "less_than_600_lbs", "label": "Under 600 lb", "midpoint_lbs": 550.0, "mean_days_to_finish": 257.1, "raw_maturing_head": 187390}, {"bucket": "600_699_lbs", "label": "600-699 lb", "midpoint_lbs": 650.0, "mean_days_to_finish": 228.6, "raw_maturing_head": 166677}, {"bucket": "700_799_lbs", "label": "700-799 lb", "midpoint_lbs": 750.0, "mean_days_to_finish": 200.0, "raw_maturing_head": 188418}, {"bucket": "800_899_lbs", "label": "800-899 lb", "midpoint_lbs": 850.0, "mean_days_to_finish": 171.4, "raw_maturing_head": 184217}, {"bucket": "900_999_lbs", "label": "900-999 lb", "midpoint_lbs": 950.0, "mean_days_to_finish": 142.9, "raw_maturing_head": 74397}, {"bucket": "1000_lbs_and_greater", "label": "1,000+ lb", "midpoint_lbs": 1050.0, "mean_days_to_finish": 114.3, "raw_maturing_head": 29855}], "sensitivity_low_head": 731484, "sensitivity_high_head": 820165, "sensitivity_cases": [{"target_live_weight_lbs": 1425, "adg_lbs_per_day": 3.2, "calibrated_head": 785902}, {"target_live_weight_lbs": 1425, "adg_lbs_per_day": 3.5, "calibrated_head": 820165}, {"target_live_weight_lbs": 1425, "adg_lbs_per_day": 3.8, "calibrated_head": 819770}, {"target_live_weight_lbs": 1450, "adg_lbs_per_day": 3.2, "calibrated_head": 759497}, {"target_live_weight_lbs": 1450, "adg_lbs_per_day": 3.5, "calibrated_head": 809613}, {"target_live_weight_lbs": 1450, "adg_lbs_per_day": 3.8, "calibrated_head": 814600}, {"target_live_weight_lbs": 1475, "adg_lbs_per_day": 3.2, "calibrated_head": 731484}, {"target_live_weight_lbs": 1475, "adg_lbs_per_day": 3.5, "calibrated_head": 798136}, {"target_live_weight_lbs": 1475, "adg_lbs_per_day": 3.8, "calibrated_head": 813467}], "latest_official_activity_month": "2026-05-01"}, "slaughter_pace": {"latest_period_end": "2026-07-04", "latest_value_head": 371300, "nonholiday_sample": [{"period_end": "2026-06-06", "value_head": 435800}, {"period_end": "2026-06-13", "value_head": 428200}, {"period_end": "2026-06-20", "value_head": 427800}, {"period_end": "2026-06-27", "value_head": 436000}], "excluded_recent_holiday_weeks": [{"period_end": "2026-05-30", "value_head": 363500, "holiday": "Memorial Day"}, {"period_end": "2026-07-04", "value_head": 371300, "holiday": "Independence Day"}], "median_weekly_head": 432000, "freshness": {"state": "CURRENT", "age_calendar_days": 16, "warn_days": 21, "stale_days": 35}}, "weekly_beef": {"live_weight_lbs": 1450.0, "live_weight_lbs_period_end": "2026-07-10", "dressed_weight_lbs": 889.0, "dressed_weight_lbs_period_end": "2026-07-10", "slaughter_head": 529000.0, "slaughter_head_period_end": "2026-07-10", "beef_production_mil_lbs": 469.1, "beef_production_mil_lbs_period_end": "2026-07-10", "sample_counts": {"live_weight_lbs": 14, "dressed_weight_lbs": 14, "slaughter_head": 14, "beef_production_mil_lbs": 14}, "freshness": {"state": "CURRENT", "age_calendar_days": 10, "warn_days": 14, "stale_days": 21}, "use": "Current physical calibration only; canonical history is not yet long enough for trained seasonality."}, "flow_overlay": {"report_date": "2026-07-20", "committed_head": 338539, "delivered_head": 348490, "committed_minus_delivered_head": -9951, "committed_to_delivered_ratio": 0.971, "freshness": {"state": "CURRENT", "report_age_calendar_days": 0, "hours_since_publication": 4.9, "stale_after_calendar_days": 8, "newer_incomplete_report_dates": []}, "validation_passed": true, "interpretation": "National scheduling/plant-flow diagnostic; not added to another anchor."}, "freshness": {"state": "PASS", "anchors": {"cof_run_rate": {"state": "CURRENT", "age_calendar_days": 32, "warn_days": 32, "stale_days": 40}, "lm_ct142_flow": {"state": "CURRENT", "report_age_calendar_days": 0, "hours_since_publication": 4.9, "stale_after_calendar_days": 8, "newer_incomplete_report_dates": []}, "placement_cohort_maturity": {"cattle_on_feed": {"state": "CURRENT", "age_calendar_days": 32, "warn_days": 32, "stale_days": 40}, "weekly_weight": {"state": "CURRENT", "age_calendar_days": 10, "warn_days": 14, "stale_days": 21}}, "fed_slaughter_pace": {"state": "CURRENT", "age_calendar_days": 16, "warn_days": 21, "stale_days": 35}}}, "provenance": {"canonical_cattle_snapshot": {"manifest_path": "/opt/alpha_current/data/cattle/current_snapshot.json", "core_status_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/cattle_data_core_status.json", "build_id": "ab06fb90e18df347", "run_id": "cattle-core-20260719T113909399397-0500-4b66a8e087a4", "snapshot_path": "/opt/alpha_current/data/cattle/snapshots/cattle_fundamentals_ab06fb90e18df347.sqlite", "snapshot_sha256": "54d5cc3aaeb199d8d6dfb0689e48e8fa6f58727a9bd36ecb1fbfad1e6771c4c0", "snapshot_byte_count": 602259456, "source_fingerprint": "6f0263faaa91fd1d5d0821fe4e20766326b399a3e94aa8f522a44438d51e2037", "parser_version": "alpha-cattle-core-migration-1.5.0", "as_of_ct": "2026-07-20T16:05:05.946648-05:00", "series": ["usda.nass.cof.on_feed_head", "usda.nass.cof.placements_head", "usda.nass.cof.marketings_head", "usda.nass.cof.other_disappearance_head", "usda.nass.cof.net_placements_head", "usda.nass.cof.less_than_600_lbs", "usda.nass.cof.600_699_lbs", "usda.nass.cof.700_799_lbs", "usda.nass.cof.800_899_lbs", "usda.nass.cof.900_999_lbs", "usda.nass.cof.1000_lbs_and_greater", "usda.ams.weekly_beef.live_weight_lbs", "usda.ams.weekly_beef.dressed_weight_lbs", "usda.ams.weekly_beef.slaughter_head", "usda.ams.weekly_beef.beef_production_mil_lbs"]}, "nass_slaughter_source": {"status": "PASS", "path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/cow_heifer_slaughter_history.csv", "sha256": "b182da98adfeed25c7618fa86b81fd2f3294ef3664122e7c9f497bff8e07eefa", "byte_count": 713992, "row_count": 2529, "latest_period_end": "2026-07-04", "latest_available_at": "2026-07-20T13:08:11+00:00", "series": "fed_slaughter_from_steer_heifer", "source": "USDA NASS QuickStats bulk", "period_semantics": "OFFICIAL_WEEK_ENDING_SATURDAY", "vintage_quality": "LATEST_REVISED_CURRENT_CONTEXT_ONLY", "canonical_adapter_note": "Direct hashed source used until cattle-core week-ending semantics are migrated."}, "slaughter_pipeline_status_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/feedlot_supply_status.json", "slaughter_pipeline_payload_sha256": "7bae77986aa946914af18322187d766e26c1faf0fb5ebf546c54b30c3f21d840", "official_sources": ["USDA NASS Cattle on Feed", "USDA AMS LM_CT142", "USDA NASS QuickStats slaughter by class", "USDA AMS Weekly National Carlot Meat Report"]}, "data_quality": {"event_count": 113, "complete_weight_reconciliations": 109, "weight_reconciliations_passed": 109, "weight_reconciliations_all_pass": true, "accounting_checks": 111, "accounting_checks_passed": 111, "accounting_all_pass": true, "latest_weight_check": {"activity_month": "2026-05-01", "difference_head": 0, "passed": true}, "latest_accounting_check": {"activity_month": "2026-05-01", "difference_head": 0, "passed": true}, "canonical_series_count": 15, "lm_validation_passed": true}, "guardrails": ["Built only from public USDA data; no proprietary third-party series is ingested or used as a target.", "The four anchors are combined by their median and are never summed.", "Holiday-depressed slaughter weeks are excluded from the four-week pace anchor and disclosed.", "The NASS slaughter bundle is latest-revised and is used only for the current pace anchor, not a point-in-time backtest.", "The range is anchor disagreement, not a statistical confidence interval.", "This is a 14-day availability estimate, not a showlist or inventory census.", "Research context only; zero live-decision or execution points."], "history_path": "/opt/alpha_current/data/alpha_fed_supply/alpha_fed_supply_history.csv", "last_refresh_time_ct": "2026-07-20T16:05:05.946648-05:00", "errors": []}