{"schema_version": "alpha.feedlot_supply.v1", "module": "feedlot_supply", "status": "PASS", "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "live_trade_status": "DISABLED", "decision_use": "DISPLAY_SHADOW_CONTEXT", "max_points": 0, "promotion_gate_passed": false, "trade_mode": "DISPLAY / SHADOW CONTEXT ONLY", "signal": "1 outlier | 3 unusual | 4 normal across 8 regional reads", "bias": "NON_DIRECTIONAL SUPPLY CONTEXT", "confidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Official USDA committed/delivered cattle with five-year seasonal context. This is a public scheduling proxy, not a true feedlot showlist, and it contributes zero execution points.", "source": "USDA AMS Livestock Mandatory Reporting", "source_mode": "LIVE_INCREMENTAL", "report": {"report_id": "2472", "report_code": "LM_CT142", "report_date": "2026-07-20", "published_date_source": "07/20/2026 11:11:07", "published_at_ct": "2026-07-20T11:11:07-05:00", "source_timezone": "America/Chicago", "revision_status": "ORIGINAL_OR_UNFLAGGED", "payload_sha256": "fa6379760d534178f7aac9fc47da8d278cb53e7c53b0d2f8d3f75a2674b81078", "report_page": "https://mymarketnews.ams.usda.gov/viewReport/2472", "first_seen_at_ct": "2026-07-20T11:30:06.351183-05:00", "archive_path": "/opt/alpha_current/data/feedlot_supply/raw_reports/2026-07-20/07202026111107-fa6379760d53.json"}, "freshness": {"state": "CURRENT", "report_age_calendar_days": 6, "hours_since_publication": 133.31, "stale_after_calendar_days": 8, "newer_incomplete_report_dates": []}, "definitions": {"committed": "Cattle reported as committed when scheduled for slaughter.", "delivered": "Cattle reported as delivered when unloaded at the plant.", "normal": "Middle 80 percent of the seasonal comparison pool (P10-P90).", "unusual": "Outside P10-P90 but inside the Tukey 1.5 x IQR outlier fences.", "outlier": "Outside the Tukey 1.5 x IQR fences."}, "summary": {"classification_counts": {"NORMAL": 4, "UNUSUAL": 3, "OUTLIER": 1, "INSUFFICIENT": 0}, "national": {"committed": {"current_head": 338539, "week_ago_head": 402305, "year_ago_head": 393618}, "delivered": {"current_head": 348490, "week_ago_head": 353531, "year_ago_head": 385810}}, "tracked_four_region_totals": {"committed": 260659, "delivered": 267593}, "national_committed_minus_delivered_head": -9951, "national_committed_to_delivered_ratio": 0.9714, "alerts": [{"basis": "Committed", "region": "Kansas", "current_head": 80446, "classification": "Outlier low"}, {"basis": "Committed", "region": "Colorado", "current_head": 20008, "classification": "Unusually low"}, {"basis": "Delivered", "region": "Texas/Okla/New Mexico", "current_head": 78102, "classification": "Unusually low"}, {"basis": "Delivered", "region": "Colorado", "current_head": 19873, "classification": "Unusually low"}]}, "rows": [{"basis": "Committed", "region": "Texas/Okla/New Mexico", "current_head": 81852, "prior_week_head": 86909, "wow_pct": -0.0582, "four_week_average": 80572.0, "seasonal_average": 96390.9, "seasonal_median": 100927.0, "seasonal_low": 67503, "seasonal_high": 122752, "vs_seasonal_median_pct": -0.189, "classification": {"code": "NORMAL", "label": "Normal", "sample_count": 25, "normal_low_p10": 79130.6, "normal_high_p90": 109196.2, "q1": 84475.0, "q3": 106428.0, "lower_outlier_fence": 51545.5, "upper_outlier_fence": 139357.5}, "confidence": "HIGH", "seasonal_pool": {"method": "Same basis and region; prior five ISO years; current season week +/-2; maximum 25 observations", "current_iso_year": 2026, "current_season_week": 30, "sample_count": 25, "earliest_date": "2021-07-12", "latest_date": "2025-08-04"}}, {"basis": "Committed", "region": "Kansas", "current_head": 80446, "prior_week_head": 118341, "wow_pct": -0.3202, "four_week_average": 91575.0, "seasonal_average": 102661.0, "seasonal_median": 103366.0, "seasonal_low": 82562, "seasonal_high": 117630, "vs_seasonal_median_pct": -0.2217, "classification": {"code": "OUTLIER_LOW", "label": "Outlier low", "sample_count": 25, "normal_low_p10": 91705.2, "normal_high_p90": 113305.0, "q1": 98712.0, "q3": 110816.0, "lower_outlier_fence": 80556.0, "upper_outlier_fence": 128972.0}, "confidence": "HIGH", "seasonal_pool": {"method": "Same basis and region; prior five ISO years; current season week +/-2; maximum 25 observations", "current_iso_year": 2026, "current_season_week": 30, "sample_count": 25, "earliest_date": "2021-07-12", "latest_date": "2025-08-04"}}, {"basis": "Committed", "region": "Nebraska", "current_head": 78353, "prior_week_head": 84936, "wow_pct": -0.0775, "four_week_average": 77365.5, "seasonal_average": 87898.0, "seasonal_median": 86721.0, "seasonal_low": 64981, "seasonal_high": 108244, "vs_seasonal_median_pct": -0.0965, "classification": {"code": "NORMAL", "label": "Normal", "sample_count": 25, "normal_low_p10": 76402.8, "normal_high_p90": 99600.4, "q1": 82424.0, "q3": 94226.0, "lower_outlier_fence": 64721.0, "upper_outlier_fence": 111929.0}, "confidence": "HIGH", "seasonal_pool": {"method": "Same basis and region; prior five ISO years; current season week +/-2; maximum 25 observations", "current_iso_year": 2026, "current_season_week": 30, "sample_count": 25, "earliest_date": "2021-07-12", "latest_date": "2025-08-04"}}, {"basis": "Committed", "region": "Colorado", "current_head": 20008, "prior_week_head": 28440, "wow_pct": -0.2965, "four_week_average": 21555.8, "seasonal_average": 31156.8, "seasonal_median": 29755.0, "seasonal_low": 16258, "seasonal_high": 47766, "vs_seasonal_median_pct": -0.3276, "classification": {"code": "UNUSUALLY_LOW", "label": "Unusually low", "sample_count": 25, "normal_low_p10": 23704.0, "normal_high_p90": 39457.6, "q1": 26499.0, "q3": 35593.0, "lower_outlier_fence": 12858.0, "upper_outlier_fence": 49234.0}, "confidence": "HIGH", "seasonal_pool": {"method": "Same basis and region; prior five ISO years; current season week +/-2; maximum 25 observations", "current_iso_year": 2026, "current_season_week": 30, "sample_count": 25, "earliest_date": "2021-07-12", "latest_date": "2025-08-04"}}, {"basis": "Delivered", "region": "Texas/Okla/New Mexico", "current_head": 78102, "prior_week_head": 80475, "wow_pct": -0.0295, "four_week_average": 77601.5, "seasonal_average": 93847.3, "seasonal_median": 93737.0, "seasonal_low": 72540, "seasonal_high": 107751, "vs_seasonal_median_pct": -0.1668, "classification": {"code": "UNUSUALLY_LOW", "label": "Unusually low", "sample_count": 25, "normal_low_p10": 83965.2, "normal_high_p90": 103867.4, "q1": 88989.0, "q3": 102050.0, "lower_outlier_fence": 69397.5, "upper_outlier_fence": 121641.5}, "confidence": "HIGH", "seasonal_pool": {"method": "Same basis and region; prior five ISO years; current season week +/-2; maximum 25 observations", "current_iso_year": 2026, "current_season_week": 30, "sample_count": 25, "earliest_date": "2021-07-12", "latest_date": "2025-08-04"}}, {"basis": "Delivered", "region": "Kansas", "current_head": 91764, "prior_week_head": 88568, "wow_pct": 0.0361, "four_week_average": 88880.5, "seasonal_average": 101704.1, "seasonal_median": 101859.0, "seasonal_low": 81013, "seasonal_high": 113989, "vs_seasonal_median_pct": -0.0991, "classification": {"code": "NORMAL", "label": "Normal", "sample_count": 25, "normal_low_p10": 89745.6, "normal_high_p90": 111184.8, "q1": 97148.0, "q3": 109037.0, "lower_outlier_fence": 79314.5, "upper_outlier_fence": 126870.5}, "confidence": "HIGH", "seasonal_pool": {"method": "Same basis and region; prior five ISO years; current season week +/-2; maximum 25 observations", "current_iso_year": 2026, "current_season_week": 30, "sample_count": 25, "earliest_date": "2021-07-12", "latest_date": "2025-08-04"}}, {"basis": "Delivered", "region": "Nebraska", "current_head": 77854, "prior_week_head": 77433, "wow_pct": 0.0054, "four_week_average": 71175.2, "seasonal_average": 86140.1, "seasonal_median": 85208.0, "seasonal_low": 73286, "seasonal_high": 101745, "vs_seasonal_median_pct": -0.0863, "classification": {"code": "NORMAL", "label": "Normal", "sample_count": 25, "normal_low_p10": 76094.2, "normal_high_p90": 96846.0, "q1": 79418.0, "q3": 92791.0, "lower_outlier_fence": 59358.5, "upper_outlier_fence": 112850.5}, "confidence": "HIGH", "seasonal_pool": {"method": "Same basis and region; prior five ISO years; current season week +/-2; maximum 25 observations", "current_iso_year": 2026, "current_season_week": 30, "sample_count": 25, "earliest_date": "2021-07-12", "latest_date": "2025-08-04"}}, {"basis": "Delivered", "region": "Colorado", "current_head": 19873, "prior_week_head": 22389, "wow_pct": -0.1124, "four_week_average": 19252.8, "seasonal_average": 30257.3, "seasonal_median": 30180.0, "seasonal_low": 21388, "seasonal_high": 39225, "vs_seasonal_median_pct": -0.3415, "classification": {"code": "UNUSUALLY_LOW", "label": "Unusually low", "sample_count": 25, "normal_low_p10": 23669.0, "normal_high_p90": 37355.2, "q1": 27915.0, "q3": 33766.0, "lower_outlier_fence": 19138.5, "upper_outlier_fence": 42542.5}, "confidence": "HIGH", "seasonal_pool": {"method": "Same basis and region; prior five ISO years; current season week +/-2; maximum 25 observations", "current_iso_year": 2026, "current_season_week": 30, "sample_count": 25, "earliest_date": "2021-07-12", "latest_date": "2025-08-04"}}], "validation": {"passed": true, "row_count": 22, "reconciliations": [{"basis": "Committed", "regional_non_null_total": 338539, "summary_current_volume": 338539, "difference": 0, "passed": true}, {"basis": "Delivered", "regional_non_null_total": 348490, "summary_current_volume": 348490, "difference": 0, "passed": true}]}, "guardrails": ["Display/shadow context only; no intraday decision or execution points.", "Texas/Okla/New Mexico is preserved as one USDA reporting region and is not relabeled Texas.", "Missing values remain null and are never converted to zero.", "Publication timestamp, not report date, controls point-in-time availability.", "True showlist estimates require a separate reliable or licensed source."], "last_refresh_time_ct": "2026-07-21T12:05:12.894220-05:00", "latest_data_time_ct": "2026-07-20T11:11:07-05:00", "errors": [], "build_id": "83350c6bd516b4e5"}