{"module": "market_thesis_history", "status": "PASS", "count": 266, "vintages": [{"snapshot_id": "db52bc609a2fa873", "semantic_fingerprint": "db52bc609a2fa8730f8b469f22ac7ca8e55f12869f083962ce29a4909924822f", "generated_at_ct": "2026-07-12T09:52:28.648195-05:00", "headline": {"text": "Near term BEARISH; 1-3 months MIXED; 6-24 months MIXED.", "what_changed": "Initial independent typed thesis snapshot.", "dominant_driver": {"factor_id": "cash_weekly_change_near", "label": "Live cash change versus last week", "raw_value": -7.14, "unit": "usd_per_cwt", "direction": -1, "context_contribution": -34.0, "metadata": {}}, "contradiction": "Pipeline tightening conflicts with current cash weakness.", "confidence": "HIGH"}, "horizons": {"near_term": {"window": "1-10 sessions", "bias": "BEARISH", "context_score": -61.9, "confidence": "HIGH"}, "intermediate": {"window": "1-3 months", "bias": "MIXED", "context_score": -13.5, "confidence": "MEDIUM"}, "structural": {"window": "6-24 months", "bias": 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0.7241, "quality": 0.52, "freshness_state": "CURRENT", "freshness_multiplier": 1.0, "context_contribution": 0.0, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-11", "metadata": {}}, {"factor_id": "packer_cei_gross_spread_intermediate", "horizon": "intermediate", "raw_value": -5.264764, "unit": "usd_per_cwt_carcass", "direction": 0, "strength": 0.351, "quality": 0.84, "freshness_state": "CURRENT", "freshness_multiplier": 1.0, "context_contribution": 0.0, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-10", "metadata": {"correct_sign": "DEMAND_BOX_MINUS_SUPPLY_LIVE", "per_head_proxy_excluded": true}}, {"factor_id": "tuesday_cutout_weekly_change_near", "horizon": "near_term", "raw_value": -1.718717, "unit": "percent", "direction": -1, "strength": 0.5729, "quality": 0.88, "freshness_state": "CURRENT", "freshness_multiplier": 1.0, "context_contribution": -12.6039, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-07", "metadata": {"top_primal_driver": {"primal": "Rib", "average_contribution_usd_per_cwt": -3.4856, "share_of_absolute_impact_pct": 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"weekly_slaughter_utilization_intermediate", "horizon": "intermediate", "raw_value": 82.161309, "unit": "percent_of_p95_throughput_proxy", "direction": 0, "strength": 0.7135, "quality": 0.22, "freshness_state": "CURRENT", "freshness_multiplier": 1.0, "context_contribution": 0.0, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-03", "metadata": {"slaughter_head": 458000.0, "p95_weekly_head": 557440.0, "holiday_distorted": true, "prior_week_slaughter_head": 537000.0}}], "contradiction_ids": ["tight_placements_vs_weak_cash", "tight_placements_vs_weak_wholesale", "high_on_feed_vs_lighter_placements"], "market_reference": {"source_id": "DATABENTO_LC_DAILY", "contract_method": "FIXED_CONTRACT_NON_STITCHED", "symbol": "LEQ6", "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 235.0, "unit": "cents_per_pound", "roll_adjusted": false, "survivorship_note": "Reference is the observed fixed contract, not a stitched continuation series."}}, {"snapshot_id": "df280112e8ad3532", "semantic_fingerprint": 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"metadata": {}}, {"factor_id": "futures_ma_location_near", "horizon": "near_term", "raw_value": -2.523703, "unit": "percent", "direction": -1, "strength": 0.8412, "quality": 0.78, "freshness_state": "CURRENT", "freshness_multiplier": 1.0, "context_contribution": -15.0917, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-10", "metadata": {}}, {"factor_id": "kill_throughput_proxy_structural", "horizon": "structural", "raw_value": -10.861419, "unit": "percent", "direction": 0, "strength": 0.7241, "quality": 0.52, "freshness_state": "CURRENT", "freshness_multiplier": 1.0, "context_contribution": 0.0, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-11", "metadata": {}}, {"factor_id": "packer_cei_gross_spread_intermediate", "horizon": "intermediate", "raw_value": -5.264764, "unit": "usd_per_cwt_carcass", "direction": 0, "strength": 0.351, "quality": 0.84, "freshness_state": "CURRENT", "freshness_multiplier": 1.0, "context_contribution": 0.0, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-10", "metadata": {"correct_sign": "DEMAND_BOX_MINUS_SUPPLY_LIVE", 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"session_complete": true, "contract_identity_guard": "PASS"}}, {"factor_id": "kill_throughput_proxy_structural", "horizon": "structural", "raw_value": -10.861419, "unit": "percent", "direction": 0, "strength": 0.7241, "quality": 0.52, "freshness_state": "CURRENT", "freshness_multiplier": 1.0, "context_contribution": 0.0, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-14", "metadata": {}}, {"factor_id": "packer_cei_gross_spread_intermediate", "horizon": "intermediate", "raw_value": -6.787288, "unit": "usd_per_cwt_carcass", "direction": 0, "strength": 0.4525, "quality": 0.84, "freshness_state": "CURRENT", "freshness_multiplier": 1.0, "context_contribution": 0.0, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-14", "metadata": {"correct_sign": "DEMAND_BOX_MINUS_SUPPLY_LIVE", "per_head_proxy_excluded": true}}, {"factor_id": "tuesday_cutout_weekly_change_near", "horizon": "near_term", "raw_value": -1.718717, "unit": "percent", "direction": -1, "strength": 0.5729, "quality": 0.88, "freshness_state": "WATCH", "freshness_multiplier": 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"observed_at_ct": "2026-07-14", "metadata": {}}, {"factor_id": "packer_cei_gross_spread_intermediate", "horizon": "intermediate", "raw_value": -6.787288, "unit": "usd_per_cwt_carcass", "direction": 0, "strength": 0.4525, "quality": 0.84, "freshness_state": "CURRENT", "freshness_multiplier": 1.0, "context_contribution": 0.0, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-14", "metadata": {"correct_sign": "DEMAND_BOX_MINUS_SUPPLY_LIVE", "per_head_proxy_excluded": true}}, {"factor_id": "tuesday_cutout_weekly_change_near", "horizon": "near_term", "raw_value": -1.718717, "unit": "percent", "direction": -1, "strength": 0.5729, "quality": 0.88, "freshness_state": "WATCH", "freshness_multiplier": 0.6, "context_contribution": -7.5624, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-07", "metadata": {"top_primal_driver": {"primal": "Rib", "average_contribution_usd_per_cwt": -3.4856, "share_of_absolute_impact_pct": 44.659}}}, {"factor_id": "weekly_slaughter_utilization_intermediate", "horizon": "intermediate", "raw_value": 94.898106, 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"2026-07-16T07:55:31.944295-05:00", "headline": {"text": "Near term BEARISH; 1-3 months MIXED; 6-24 months BULLISH.", "what_changed": "No material typed-factor change.", "dominant_driver": {"factor_id": "futures_ma_location_near", "label": "Fixed-contract close versus MA40/MA100", "raw_value": -3.937163456187187, "unit": "percent", "direction": -1, "context_contribution": -17.94, "metadata": {"instrument_id": 42101047, "source_file": "/opt/alpha/data/databento_live_cattle_ohlcv_1m.csv", "last_ts": "2026-07-15 18:04:00+00:00", "session_complete": true, "contract_identity_guard": "PASS"}}, "contradiction": "Pipeline tightening conflicts with weekly wholesale weakness.", "confidence": "MEDIUM"}, "horizons": {"near_term": {"window": "1-10 sessions", "bias": "BEARISH", "context_score": -79.3, "confidence": "MEDIUM"}, "intermediate": {"window": "1-3 months", "bias": "MIXED", "context_score": -15.0, "confidence": "MEDIUM"}, "structural": {"window": "6-24 months", "bias": "BULLISH", 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"quality": 0.9, "freshness_state": "CURRENT", "freshness_multiplier": 1.0, "context_contribution": -3.24, "observed_at_ct": "2026-06-18", "metadata": {}}, {"factor_id": "cof_placements_intermediate", "horizon": "intermediate", "raw_value": 90.0, "unit": "percent_of_year_ago", "direction": 1, "strength": 0.6667, "quality": 0.95, "freshness_state": "CURRENT", "freshness_multiplier": 1.0, "context_contribution": 20.2667, "observed_at_ct": "2026-06-18", "metadata": {}}, {"factor_id": "cof_placements_structural", "horizon": "structural", "raw_value": 90.0, "unit": "percent_of_year_ago", "direction": 1, "strength": 0.6667, "quality": 0.7, "freshness_state": "CURRENT", "freshness_multiplier": 1.0, "context_contribution": 8.4, "observed_at_ct": "2026-06-18", "metadata": {}}, {"factor_id": "cot_liquidation_risk_near", "horizon": "near_term", "raw_value": 97.1, "unit": "historical_percentile", "direction": -1, "strength": 0.5538, "quality": 0.82, "freshness_state": "CURRENT", 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"per_head_proxy_excluded": true}}, {"factor_id": "tuesday_cutout_weekly_change_near", "horizon": "near_term", "raw_value": -1.718717, "unit": "percent", "direction": -1, "strength": 0.5729, "quality": 0.88, "freshness_state": "WATCH", "freshness_multiplier": 0.6, "context_contribution": -7.5624, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-07", "metadata": {"top_primal_driver": {"primal": "Rib", "average_contribution_usd_per_cwt": -3.4856, "share_of_absolute_impact_pct": 44.659}}}, {"factor_id": "weekly_slaughter_utilization_intermediate", "horizon": "intermediate", "raw_value": 94.898106, "unit": "percent_of_p95_throughput_proxy", "direction": 0, "strength": 0.2041, "quality": 0.58, "freshness_state": "CURRENT", "freshness_multiplier": 1.0, "context_contribution": 0.0, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-10", "metadata": {"slaughter_head": 529000.0, "p95_weekly_head": 557440.0, "holiday_distorted": false, "prior_week_slaughter_head": 458000.0}}], "contradiction_ids": ["tight_placements_vs_weak_wholesale", 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"context_contribution": 20.2667, "observed_at_ct": "2026-06-18", "metadata": {}}, {"factor_id": "cof_placements_structural", "horizon": "structural", "raw_value": 90.0, "unit": "percent_of_year_ago", "direction": 1, "strength": 0.6667, "quality": 0.7, "freshness_state": "CURRENT", "freshness_multiplier": 1.0, "context_contribution": 8.4, "observed_at_ct": "2026-06-18", "metadata": {}}, {"factor_id": "cot_liquidation_risk_near", "horizon": "near_term", "raw_value": 97.1, "unit": "historical_percentile", "direction": -1, "strength": 0.9242, "quality": 0.82, "freshness_state": "CURRENT", "freshness_multiplier": 1.0, "context_contribution": -14.399, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-07", "metadata": {}}, {"factor_id": "dressed_weight_yoy_intermediate", "horizon": "intermediate", "raw_value": 23.0, "unit": "pounds_per_head", "direction": -1, "strength": 0.7667, "quality": 0.88, "freshness_state": "CURRENT", "freshness_multiplier": 1.0, "context_contribution": -15.5173, "observed_at_ct": 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"/opt/alpha/data/databento_live_cattle_ohlcv_1m.csv", "last_ts": "2026-07-17 18:04:00+00:00", "session_complete": true, "price_measure": "COMPLETED_SESSION_LAST_1M_CLOSE", "survivorship_note": "Reference is the observed fixed contract, not a stitched continuation series; close is the final 1-minute bar, not the official exchange settlement."}}, {"snapshot_id": "d1b4cf53a143416b", "semantic_fingerprint": "d1b4cf53a143416bce1785136d1c03268fa165b7ab7166f59293b609053697f6", "generated_at_ct": "2026-07-18T14:18:17.331729-05:00", "headline": {"text": "Near term BEARISH; 1-3 months MIXED; 6-24 months BULLISH.", "what_changed": "Changed typed factors: futures_ma_location_near", "dominant_driver": {"factor_id": "futures_ma_location_near", "label": "Fixed-contract close versus MA40/MA100", "raw_value": -6.323806490990636, "unit": "percent", "direction": -1, "context_contribution": -17.94, "metadata": {"instrument_id": 42325272, "source_file": "/opt/alpha/data/databento_live_cattle_ohlcv_1m.csv", "last_ts": "2026-07-17 18:04:00+00:00", "session_complete": true, "contract_identity_guard": "PASS"}}, "contradiction": "Pipeline tightening conflicts with current cash weakness.", "confidence": "MEDIUM"}, "horizons": {"near_term": {"window": "1-10 sessions", "bias": "BEARISH", "context_score": -67.5, "confidence": "MEDIUM"}, "intermediate": {"window": "1-3 months", "bias": "MIXED", "context_score": -15.0, "confidence": "MEDIUM"}, "structural": {"window": "6-24 months", "bias": "BULLISH", "context_score": 35.7, "confidence": "MEDIUM"}}, "factors": [{"factor_id": "aphis_southern_ports_structural", "horizon": "structural", "raw_value": 1.0, "unit": "typed_supply_direction_code", "direction": 1, "strength": 1.0, "quality": 0.78, "freshness_state": "CURRENT", "freshness_multiplier": 1.0, "context_contribution": 14.82, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-17T18:30:20.063982-05:00", "metadata": {"southern_livestock_ports": "CLOSED", "condition": "APHIS_PAGE_EXPLICIT_CLOSURE", "duration_assumption": 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"intermediate", "raw_value": 90.0, "unit": "percent_of_year_ago", "direction": 1, "strength": 0.6667, "quality": 0.95, "freshness_state": "CURRENT", "freshness_multiplier": 1.0, "context_contribution": 20.2667, "observed_at_ct": "2026-06-18", "metadata": {}}, {"factor_id": "cof_placements_structural", "horizon": "structural", "raw_value": 90.0, "unit": "percent_of_year_ago", "direction": 1, "strength": 0.6667, "quality": 0.7, "freshness_state": "CURRENT", "freshness_multiplier": 1.0, "context_contribution": 8.4, "observed_at_ct": "2026-06-18", "metadata": {}}, {"factor_id": "cot_liquidation_risk_near", "horizon": "near_term", "raw_value": 86.0, "unit": "historical_percentile", "direction": -1, "strength": 0.3217, "quality": 0.82, "freshness_state": "CURRENT", "freshness_multiplier": 1.0, "context_contribution": -5.012, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-14", "metadata": {}}, {"factor_id": "dressed_weight_yoy_intermediate", "horizon": "intermediate", "raw_value": 23.0, "unit": "pounds_per_head", "direction": -1, "strength": 0.7667, "quality": 0.88, "freshness_state": "CURRENT", "freshness_multiplier": 1.0, "context_contribution": -15.5173, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-10", "metadata": {"latest_dressed_weight_lbs": 889.0, "year_ago_dressed_weight_lbs": 866.0}}, {"factor_id": "drought_rebuild_conditions_structural", "horizon": "structural", "raw_value": 99.8, "unit": "percent_of_normal", "direction": 0, "strength": 0.008, "quality": 0.58, "freshness_state": "WATCH", "freshness_multiplier": 0.6, "context_contribution": 0.0, "observed_at_ct": "2026-06-01", "metadata": {}}, {"factor_id": "futures_ma_location_near", "horizon": "near_term", "raw_value": -6.323806, "unit": "percent", "direction": -1, "strength": 1.0, "quality": 0.78, "freshness_state": "CURRENT", "freshness_multiplier": 1.0, "context_contribution": -17.94, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-17", "metadata": {"instrument_id": 42325272, "source_file": "/opt/alpha/data/databento_live_cattle_ohlcv_1m.csv", "last_ts": "2026-07-17 18:04:00+00:00", "session_complete": true, "contract_identity_guard": "PASS"}}, {"factor_id": "kill_throughput_proxy_structural", "horizon": "structural", "raw_value": -10.999739, "unit": "percent", "direction": 0, "strength": 0.7333, "quality": 0.52, "freshness_state": "CURRENT", "freshness_multiplier": 1.0, "context_contribution": 0.0, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-18", "metadata": {}}, {"factor_id": "packer_cei_gross_spread_intermediate", "horizon": "intermediate", "raw_value": -3.40538, "unit": "usd_per_cwt_carcass", "direction": 0, "strength": 0.227, "quality": 0.84, "freshness_state": "CURRENT", "freshness_multiplier": 1.0, "context_contribution": 0.0, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-17", "metadata": {"correct_sign": "DEMAND_BOX_MINUS_SUPPLY_LIVE", "per_head_proxy_excluded": true}}, {"factor_id": "tuesday_cutout_weekly_change_near", "horizon": "near_term", "raw_value": -1.718717, "unit": "percent", "direction": -1, "strength": 0.5729, "quality": 0.88, "freshness_state": "WATCH", "freshness_multiplier": 0.6, "context_contribution": -7.5624, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-07", "metadata": {"top_primal_driver": {"primal": "Rib", "average_contribution_usd_per_cwt": -3.4856, "share_of_absolute_impact_pct": 44.659}}}, {"factor_id": "weekly_slaughter_utilization_intermediate", "horizon": "intermediate", "raw_value": 95.045591, "unit": "percent_of_p95_throughput_proxy", "direction": 0, "strength": 0.1982, "quality": 0.58, "freshness_state": "CURRENT", "freshness_multiplier": 1.0, "context_contribution": 0.0, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-10", "metadata": {"slaughter_head": 529000.0, "p95_weekly_head": 556575.0, "holiday_distorted": false, "prior_week_slaughter_head": 458000.0}}], "contradiction_ids": ["tight_placements_vs_weak_cash", "tight_placements_vs_weak_wholesale", "high_on_feed_vs_lighter_placements"], "market_reference": {"source_id": "DATABENTO_LC_DAILY", "contract_method": "FIXED_CONTRACT_NON_STITCHED", "symbol": "LEV6", "instrument_id": 42325272, "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 220.625, "unit": "cents_per_pound", "roll_adjusted": false, "source_file": "/opt/alpha/data/databento_live_cattle_ohlcv_1m.csv", "last_ts": "2026-07-17 18:04:00+00:00", "session_complete": true, "price_measure": "COMPLETED_SESSION_LAST_1M_CLOSE", "survivorship_note": "Reference is the observed fixed contract, not a stitched continuation series; close is the final 1-minute bar, not the official exchange settlement."}}, {"snapshot_id": "532e45c3ef5453a1", "semantic_fingerprint": "532e45c3ef5453a1c0b13ebbb337a9febd0fe9196752c197b29b3dc9d30e0c8a", "generated_at_ct": "2026-07-20T00:03:20.218113-05:00", "headline": {"text": "Near term BEARISH; 1-3 months BEARISH; 6-24 months BULLISH.", "what_changed": "Changed typed factors: aphis_southern_ports_structural, cof_marketings_intermediate, cof_on_feed_structural, cof_placements_intermediate, cof_placements_structural", "dominant_driver": {"factor_id": "futures_ma_location_near", "label": "Fixed-contract 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"direction": -1, "strength": 0.2, "quality": 0.9, "freshness_state": "WATCH", "freshness_multiplier": 0.6, "context_contribution": -1.944, "observed_at_ct": "2026-06-18", "metadata": {}}, {"factor_id": "cof_placements_intermediate", "horizon": "intermediate", "raw_value": 90.0, "unit": "percent_of_year_ago", "direction": 1, "strength": 0.6667, "quality": 0.95, "freshness_state": "WATCH", "freshness_multiplier": 0.6, "context_contribution": 12.16, "observed_at_ct": "2026-06-18", "metadata": {}}, {"factor_id": "cof_placements_structural", "horizon": "structural", "raw_value": 90.0, "unit": "percent_of_year_ago", "direction": 1, "strength": 0.6667, "quality": 0.7, "freshness_state": "WATCH", "freshness_multiplier": 0.6, "context_contribution": 5.04, "observed_at_ct": "2026-06-18", "metadata": {}}, {"factor_id": "cot_liquidation_risk_near", "horizon": "near_term", "raw_value": 86.0, "unit": "historical_percentile", "direction": -1, "strength": 0.3217, "quality": 0.82, "freshness_state": 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["tight_placements_vs_weak_cash", "tight_placements_vs_weak_wholesale", "high_on_feed_vs_lighter_placements"], "market_reference": {"source_id": "DATABENTO_LC_DAILY", "contract_method": "FIXED_CONTRACT_NON_STITCHED", "symbol": "LEV6", "instrument_id": 42325272, "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 220.625, "unit": "cents_per_pound", "roll_adjusted": false, "source_file": "/opt/alpha/data/databento_live_cattle_ohlcv_1m.csv", "last_ts": "2026-07-17 18:04:00+00:00", "session_complete": true, "price_measure": "COMPLETED_SESSION_LAST_1M_CLOSE", "survivorship_note": "Reference is the observed fixed contract, not a stitched continuation series; close is the final 1-minute bar, not the official exchange settlement."}}, {"snapshot_id": "b4a96db1e78a2589", "semantic_fingerprint": "b4a96db1e78a2589c4827dcf849a678c0658bc638c2dd327831d707e6c401697", "generated_at_ct": "2026-07-20T06:25:37.697659-05:00", "headline": {"text": "Near term BEARISH; 1-3 months BEARISH; 6-24 months BULLISH.", "what_changed": 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"generated_at_ct": "2026-07-21T13:07:51.053924-05:00", "headline": {"text": "Near term BEARISH; 1-3 months BEARISH; 6-24 months BULLISH.", "what_changed": "No material typed-factor change.", "dominant_driver": {"factor_id": "futures_ma_location_near", "label": "Fixed-contract close versus MA40/MA100", "raw_value": -6.323806490990636, "unit": "percent", "direction": -1, "context_contribution": -11.661, "metadata": {"instrument_id": 42325272, "source_file": "/opt/alpha/data/databento_live_cattle_ohlcv_1m.csv.bak_unreadable_1784559309", "last_ts": "2026-07-17 18:04:00+00:00", "session_complete": true, "contract_identity_guard": "PASS"}}, "contradiction": "Pipeline tightening conflicts with weekly wholesale weakness.", "confidence": "MEDIUM"}, "horizons": {"near_term": {"window": "1-10 sessions", "bias": "BEARISH", "context_score": -53.0, "confidence": "MEDIUM"}, "intermediate": {"window": "1-3 months", "bias": "BEARISH", "context_score": -23.8, "confidence": "MEDIUM"}, "structural": {"window": "6-24 months", "bias": "BULLISH", "context_score": 40.3, "confidence": "MEDIUM"}}, "factors": [{"factor_id": "aphis_southern_ports_structural", "horizon": "structural", "raw_value": 1.0, "unit": "typed_supply_direction_code", "direction": 1, "strength": 1.0, "quality": 0.78, "freshness_state": "CURRENT", "freshness_multiplier": 1.0, "context_contribution": 14.82, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-21T11:45:28.099829-05:00", "metadata": {"southern_livestock_ports": "CLOSED", "condition": "APHIS_PAGE_EXPLICIT_CLOSURE", "duration_assumption": null, "page_checked_at_ct": "2026-07-21T11:45:28.099829-05:00", "source_last_modified_date": "2026-07-16"}}, {"factor_id": "beef_exports_ytd_intermediate", "horizon": "intermediate", "raw_value": -17.2, "unit": "percent", "direction": -1, "strength": 0.86, "quality": 0.62, "freshness_state": "LAGGED", "freshness_multiplier": 0.45, "context_contribution": -3.3592, "observed_at_ct": "2026-05", "metadata": {}}, {"factor_id": 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"freshness_state": "WATCH", "freshness_multiplier": 0.6, "context_contribution": 0.0, "observed_at_ct": "2026-06-01", "metadata": {}}, {"factor_id": "futures_ma_location_near", "horizon": "near_term", "raw_value": -6.819583, "unit": "percent", "direction": -1, "strength": 1.0, "quality": 0.78, "freshness_state": "CURRENT", "freshness_multiplier": 1.0, "context_contribution": -17.94, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-22", "metadata": {"instrument_id": 42325272, "source_file": "/opt/alpha/data/databento/parquet/leq6_fixed_ohlcv_1m_2025_2026.parquet", "last_ts": "2026-07-22 18:04:00+00:00", "session_complete": true, "contract_identity_guard": "PASS"}}, {"factor_id": "kill_throughput_proxy_structural", "horizon": "structural", "raw_value": -10.999739, "unit": "percent", "direction": 0, "strength": 0.7333, "quality": 0.52, "freshness_state": "CURRENT", "freshness_multiplier": 1.0, "context_contribution": 0.0, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-22", "metadata": {}}, {"factor_id": 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0.2269, "quality": 0.58, "freshness_state": "CURRENT", "freshness_multiplier": 1.0, "context_contribution": 0.0, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-17", "metadata": {"slaughter_head": 525000.0, "p95_weekly_head": 556575.0, "holiday_distorted": false, "prior_week_slaughter_head": 529000.0}}], "contradiction_ids": ["tight_placements_vs_weak_cash", "tight_placements_vs_weak_wholesale", "high_on_feed_vs_lighter_placements"], "market_reference": {"source_id": "DATABENTO_LC_DAILY", "contract_method": "FIXED_CONTRACT_NON_STITCHED", "symbol": "LEV6", "instrument_id": 42325272, "date": "2026-07-22", "close": 219.2, "unit": "cents_per_pound", "roll_adjusted": false, "source_file": "/opt/alpha/data/databento/parquet/leq6_fixed_ohlcv_1m_2025_2026.parquet", "last_ts": "2026-07-22 18:04:00+00:00", "session_complete": true, "price_measure": "COMPLETED_SESSION_LAST_1M_CLOSE", "survivorship_note": "Reference is the observed fixed contract, not a stitched continuation series; close is the final 1-minute bar, not the official exchange settlement."}}, {"snapshot_id": "9315e91c49e99ce8", "semantic_fingerprint": "9315e91c49e99ce857f39cdf002a709b11d6eb37dce3a39c912ee5cbd9d130be", "generated_at_ct": "2026-07-23T11:16:19.506613-05:00", "headline": {"text": "Near term BEARISH; 1-3 months BEARISH; 6-24 months BULLISH.", "what_changed": "No material typed-factor change.", "dominant_driver": {"factor_id": "futures_ma_location_near", "label": "Fixed-contract close versus MA40/MA100", "raw_value": -6.819583297134013, "unit": "percent", "direction": -1, "context_contribution": -17.94, "metadata": {"instrument_id": 42325272, "source_file": "/opt/alpha/data/databento/parquet/leq6_fixed_ohlcv_1m_2025_2026.parquet", "last_ts": "2026-07-22 18:04:00+00:00", "session_complete": true, "contract_identity_guard": "PASS"}}, "contradiction": "Pipeline tightening conflicts with current cash weakness.", "confidence": "MEDIUM"}, "horizons": {"near_term": {"window": "1-10 sessions", "bias": "BEARISH", "context_score": 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"2026-07-23", "metadata": {}}, {"factor_id": "cof_marketings_intermediate", "horizon": "intermediate", "raw_value": 88.0, "unit": "percent_of_year_ago", "direction": -1, "strength": 0.8, "quality": 0.85, "freshness_state": "WATCH", "freshness_multiplier": 0.6, "context_contribution": -7.344, "observed_at_ct": "2026-06-18", "metadata": {}}, {"factor_id": "cof_on_feed_structural", "horizon": "structural", "raw_value": 102.0, "unit": "percent_of_year_ago", "direction": -1, "strength": 0.2, "quality": 0.9, "freshness_state": "WATCH", "freshness_multiplier": 0.6, "context_contribution": -1.944, "observed_at_ct": "2026-06-18", "metadata": {}}, {"factor_id": "cof_placements_intermediate", "horizon": "intermediate", "raw_value": 90.0, "unit": "percent_of_year_ago", "direction": 1, "strength": 0.6667, "quality": 0.95, "freshness_state": "WATCH", "freshness_multiplier": 0.6, "context_contribution": 12.16, "observed_at_ct": "2026-06-18", "metadata": {}}, {"factor_id": "cof_placements_structural", 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"drought_rebuild_conditions_structural", "horizon": "structural", "raw_value": 99.8, "unit": "percent_of_normal", "direction": 0, "strength": 0.008, "quality": 0.58, "freshness_state": "WATCH", "freshness_multiplier": 0.6, "context_contribution": 0.0, "observed_at_ct": "2026-06-01", "metadata": {}}, {"factor_id": "futures_ma_location_near", "horizon": "near_term", "raw_value": -6.819583, "unit": "percent", "direction": -1, "strength": 1.0, "quality": 0.78, "freshness_state": "CURRENT", "freshness_multiplier": 1.0, "context_contribution": -17.94, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-22", "metadata": {"instrument_id": 42325272, "source_file": "/opt/alpha/data/databento/parquet/leq6_fixed_ohlcv_1m_2025_2026.parquet", "last_ts": "2026-07-22 18:04:00+00:00", "session_complete": true, "contract_identity_guard": "PASS"}}, {"factor_id": "kill_throughput_proxy_structural", "horizon": "structural", "raw_value": -10.999739, "unit": "percent", "direction": 0, "strength": 0.7333, "quality": 0.52, "freshness_state": "CURRENT", "freshness_multiplier": 1.0, "context_contribution": 0.0, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-22", "metadata": {}}, {"factor_id": "packer_cei_gross_spread_intermediate", "horizon": "intermediate", "raw_value": -4.99062, "unit": "usd_per_cwt_carcass", "direction": 0, "strength": 0.3327, "quality": 0.84, "freshness_state": "CURRENT", "freshness_multiplier": 1.0, "context_contribution": 0.0, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-22", "metadata": {"correct_sign": "DEMAND_BOX_MINUS_SUPPLY_LIVE", "per_head_proxy_excluded": true}}, {"factor_id": "tuesday_cutout_weekly_change_near", "horizon": "near_term", "raw_value": -1.718717, "unit": "percent", "direction": -1, "strength": 0.5729, "quality": 0.88, "freshness_state": "STALE", "freshness_multiplier": 0.0, "context_contribution": -0.0, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-07", "metadata": {"top_primal_driver": {"primal": "Rib", "average_contribution_usd_per_cwt": -3.4856, "share_of_absolute_impact_pct": 44.659}}}, {"factor_id": "weekly_slaughter_utilization_intermediate", "horizon": "intermediate", "raw_value": 94.32691, "unit": "percent_of_p95_throughput_proxy", "direction": 0, "strength": 0.2269, "quality": 0.58, "freshness_state": "CURRENT", "freshness_multiplier": 1.0, "context_contribution": 0.0, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-17", "metadata": {"slaughter_head": 525000.0, "p95_weekly_head": 556575.0, "holiday_distorted": false, "prior_week_slaughter_head": 529000.0}}], "contradiction_ids": ["tight_placements_vs_weak_cash", "tight_placements_vs_weak_wholesale", "high_on_feed_vs_lighter_placements"], "market_reference": {"source_id": "DATABENTO_LC_DAILY", "contract_method": "FIXED_CONTRACT_NON_STITCHED", "symbol": "LEV6", "instrument_id": 42325272, "date": "2026-07-22", "close": 219.2, "unit": "cents_per_pound", "roll_adjusted": false, "source_file": "/opt/alpha/data/databento/parquet/leq6_fixed_ohlcv_1m_2025_2026.parquet", "last_ts": "2026-07-22 18:04:00+00:00", "session_complete": true, "price_measure": "COMPLETED_SESSION_LAST_1M_CLOSE", "survivorship_note": "Reference is the observed fixed contract, not a stitched continuation series; close is the final 1-minute bar, not the official exchange settlement."}}, {"snapshot_id": "e6354613ed4c3985", "semantic_fingerprint": "e6354613ed4c39854d70a9c60b7e0935ebe7d89f0cfa7d89abfd05f23da713a7", "generated_at_ct": "2026-07-23T11:32:57.625578-05:00", "headline": {"text": "Near term BEARISH; 1-3 months BEARISH; 6-24 months BULLISH.", "what_changed": "No material typed-factor change.", "dominant_driver": {"factor_id": "futures_ma_location_near", "label": "Fixed-contract close versus MA40/MA100", "raw_value": -6.819583297134013, "unit": "percent", "direction": -1, "context_contribution": -17.94, "metadata": {"instrument_id": 42325272, "source_file": "/opt/alpha/data/databento/parquet/leq6_fixed_ohlcv_1m_2025_2026.parquet", "last_ts": "2026-07-22 18:04:00+00:00", "session_complete": true, "contract_identity_guard": "PASS"}}, "contradiction": 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{"factor_id": "cash_weekly_change_near", "label": "Live cash change versus last week", "raw_value": -9.11, "unit": "usd_per_cwt", "direction": -1, "context_contribution": -15.3, "metadata": {}}, "contradiction": "Pipeline tightening conflicts with current cash weakness.", "confidence": "MEDIUM"}, "horizons": {"near_term": {"window": "1-10 sessions", "bias": "BEARISH", "context_score": -72.9, "confidence": "MEDIUM"}, "intermediate": {"window": "1-3 months", "bias": "BEARISH", "context_score": -23.8, "confidence": "MEDIUM"}, "structural": {"window": "6-24 months", "bias": "BULLISH", "context_score": 40.3, "confidence": "MEDIUM"}}, "factors": [{"factor_id": "aphis_southern_ports_structural", "horizon": "structural", "raw_value": 1.0, "unit": "typed_supply_direction_code", "direction": 1, "strength": 1.0, "quality": 0.78, "freshness_state": "CURRENT", "freshness_multiplier": 1.0, "context_contribution": 14.82, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-23T15:45:20.455654-05:00", "metadata": 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"/opt/alpha/data/databento/parquet/leq6_fixed_ohlcv_1m_2025_2026.parquet", "last_ts": "2026-07-22 18:04:00+00:00", "session_complete": true, "price_measure": "COMPLETED_SESSION_LAST_1M_CLOSE", "survivorship_note": "Reference is the observed fixed contract, not a stitched continuation series; close is the final 1-minute bar, not the official exchange settlement."}}, {"snapshot_id": "13abbdd4104b1996", "semantic_fingerprint": "13abbdd4104b1996671425d0f34dd857ad1f9411bc30aa613688334165904539", "generated_at_ct": "2026-07-24T18:30:53.410517-05:00", "headline": {"text": "Near term BEARISH; 1-3 months BEARISH; 6-24 months BULLISH.", "what_changed": "No material typed-factor change.", "dominant_driver": {"factor_id": "cash_weekly_change_near", "label": "Live cash change versus last week", "raw_value": -8.21, "unit": "usd_per_cwt", "direction": -1, "context_contribution": -15.3, "metadata": {}}, "contradiction": "Pipeline tightening conflicts with current cash weakness.", "confidence": "LOW"}, "horizons": {"near_term": {"window": "1-10 sessions", "bias": "BEARISH", "context_score": -53.2, "confidence": "LOW"}, "intermediate": {"window": "1-3 months", "bias": "BEARISH", "context_score": -20.8, "confidence": "MEDIUM"}, "structural": {"window": "6-24 months", "bias": "BULLISH", "context_score": 25.2, "confidence": "MEDIUM"}}, "factors": [{"factor_id": "aphis_southern_ports_structural", "horizon": "structural", "raw_value": 1.0, "unit": "typed_supply_direction_code", "direction": 1, "strength": 1.0, "quality": 0.78, "freshness_state": "CURRENT", "freshness_multiplier": 1.0, "context_contribution": 14.82, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-24T18:30:20.067465-05:00", "metadata": {"southern_livestock_ports": "CLOSED", "condition": "APHIS_PAGE_EXPLICIT_CLOSURE", "duration_assumption": null, "page_checked_at_ct": "2026-07-24T18:30:20.067465-05:00", "source_last_modified_date": "2026-07-24"}}, {"factor_id": "beef_exports_ytd_intermediate", "horizon": "intermediate", "raw_value": -17.2, 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"freshness_state": "CURRENT", "freshness_multiplier": 1.0, "context_contribution": -15.3, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-24", "metadata": {}}, {"factor_id": "cof_marketings_intermediate", "horizon": "intermediate", "raw_value": 97.0, "unit": "percent_of_year_ago", "direction": -1, "strength": 0.2, "quality": 0.85, "freshness_state": "CURRENT", "freshness_multiplier": 1.0, "context_contribution": -3.06, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-24", "metadata": {}}, {"factor_id": "cof_on_feed_structural", "horizon": "structural", "raw_value": 102.0, "unit": "percent_of_year_ago", "direction": -1, "strength": 0.2, "quality": 0.9, "freshness_state": "CURRENT", "freshness_multiplier": 1.0, "context_contribution": -3.24, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-24", "metadata": {}}, {"factor_id": "cof_placements_intermediate", "horizon": "intermediate", "raw_value": 97.0, "unit": "percent_of_year_ago", "direction": 1, "strength": 0.2, "quality": 0.95, "freshness_state": "CURRENT", "freshness_multiplier": 1.0, "context_contribution": 6.08, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-24", "metadata": {}}, {"factor_id": "cof_placements_structural", "horizon": "structural", "raw_value": 97.0, "unit": "percent_of_year_ago", "direction": 1, "strength": 0.2, "quality": 0.7, "freshness_state": "CURRENT", "freshness_multiplier": 1.0, "context_contribution": 2.52, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-24", "metadata": {}}, {"factor_id": "cot_liquidation_risk_near", "horizon": "near_term", "raw_value": 66.9, "unit": "historical_percentile", "direction": 0, "strength": 0.1183, "quality": 0.82, "freshness_state": "CURRENT", "freshness_multiplier": 1.0, "context_contribution": 0.0, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-21", "metadata": {}}, {"factor_id": "dressed_weight_yoy_intermediate", "horizon": "intermediate", "raw_value": 23.0, "unit": "pounds_per_head", "direction": -1, "strength": 0.7667, "quality": 0.88, "freshness_state": "CURRENT", "freshness_multiplier": 1.0, "context_contribution": -15.5173, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-17", "metadata": {"latest_dressed_weight_lbs": 887.0, "year_ago_dressed_weight_lbs": 864.0}}, {"factor_id": "drought_rebuild_conditions_structural", "horizon": "structural", "raw_value": 99.8, "unit": "percent_of_normal", "direction": 0, "strength": 0.008, "quality": 0.58, "freshness_state": "WATCH", "freshness_multiplier": 0.6, "context_contribution": 0.0, "observed_at_ct": "2026-06-01", "metadata": {}}, {"factor_id": "futures_ma_location_near", "horizon": "near_term", "raw_value": -6.819583, "unit": "percent", "direction": -1, "strength": 1.0, "quality": 0.78, "freshness_state": "STALE", "freshness_multiplier": 0.0, "context_contribution": -0.0, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-22", "metadata": {"instrument_id": 42325272, "source_file": "/opt/alpha/data/databento/parquet/leq6_fixed_ohlcv_1m_2025_2026.parquet", "last_ts": "2026-07-22 18:04:00+00:00", "session_complete": true, "contract_identity_guard": "PASS"}}, {"factor_id": "kill_throughput_proxy_structural", "horizon": "structural", "raw_value": -11.138058, "unit": "percent", "direction": 0, "strength": 0.7425, "quality": 0.52, "freshness_state": "CURRENT", "freshness_multiplier": 1.0, "context_contribution": 0.0, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-24", "metadata": {}}, {"factor_id": "packer_cei_gross_spread_intermediate", "horizon": "intermediate", "raw_value": 3.65626, "unit": "usd_per_cwt_carcass", "direction": 0, "strength": 0.2438, "quality": 0.84, "freshness_state": "CURRENT", "freshness_multiplier": 1.0, "context_contribution": 0.0, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-24", "metadata": {"correct_sign": "DEMAND_BOX_MINUS_SUPPLY_LIVE", "per_head_proxy_excluded": true}}, {"factor_id": "tuesday_cutout_weekly_change_near", "horizon": "near_term", "raw_value": -1.718717, "unit": "percent", "direction": -1, "strength": 0.5729, "quality": 0.88, "freshness_state": "STALE", "freshness_multiplier": 0.0, "context_contribution": -0.0, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-07", "metadata": {"top_primal_driver": {"primal": "Rib", "average_contribution_usd_per_cwt": -3.4856, "share_of_absolute_impact_pct": 44.659}}}, {"factor_id": "weekly_slaughter_utilization_intermediate", "horizon": "intermediate", "raw_value": 94.473736, "unit": "percent_of_p95_throughput_proxy", "direction": 0, "strength": 0.2211, "quality": 0.58, "freshness_state": "CURRENT", "freshness_multiplier": 1.0, "context_contribution": 0.0, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-17", "metadata": {"slaughter_head": 525000.0, "p95_weekly_head": 555710.0, "holiday_distorted": false, "prior_week_slaughter_head": 529000.0}}], "contradiction_ids": ["tight_placements_vs_weak_cash", "tight_placements_vs_weak_wholesale", "high_on_feed_vs_lighter_placements"], "market_reference": {"source_id": "DATABENTO_LC_DAILY", "contract_method": "FIXED_CONTRACT_NON_STITCHED", "symbol": "LEV6", "instrument_id": 42325272, "date": "2026-07-22", "close": 219.2, "unit": "cents_per_pound", "roll_adjusted": false, "source_file": 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The latest COF report showed 11.370M on feed (+246K; +2.211% YoY), 1.399M placements (-42K; -2.915% YoY), and 1.661M marketings (-46K; -2.695% YoY); placements were -13.2K head versus the stored release-matched expectation.", "dominant_driver": {"factor_id": "cash_weekly_change_near", "label": "Live cash change versus last week", "raw_value": -8.21, "unit": "usd_per_cwt", "direction": -1, "context_contribution": -15.3, "metadata": {}}, "contradiction": "Pipeline tightening conflicts with current cash weakness.", "confidence": "LOW"}, "horizons": {"near_term": {"window": "1-10 sessions", "bias": "BEARISH", "context_score": -53.2, "confidence": "LOW"}, "intermediate": {"window": "1-3 months", "bias": "BEARISH", "context_score": -24.4, "confidence": "MEDIUM"}, "structural": {"window": "6-24 months", "bias": "NEUTRAL", "context_score": -12.6, "confidence": "MEDIUM"}}, "factors": [{"factor_id": "aphis_southern_ports_reopening_intermediate", "horizon": "intermediate", "raw_value": -1.0, "unit": "typed_supply_transition_direction_code", "direction": -1, "strength": 0.45, "quality": 0.82, "freshness_state": "CURRENT", "freshness_multiplier": 1.0, "context_contribution": -7.011, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-24", "metadata": {"state_machine": "CLOSED -> PHASED_REOPEN_SCHEDULED", "current_state": "CLOSED", "announcement_date": "2026-07-24", "effective_date": "2026-08-24", "scheduled_ports": [{"port": "Douglas, AZ", "effective_date": "2026-08-24", "status": "SCHEDULED"}], "preparation_ports": [{"port": "Santa Teresa, NM", "effective_date": null}, {"port": "Columbus, NM", "effective_date": null}], "contingency": "Mexico adherence to the Joint Action Plan", "inspection_requirement": "Every animal entering through reopened ports receives a full USDA New World screwworm inspection.", "confirmation_required": true, "current_status_source_url": "https://direct.aphis.usda.gov/animals/animal-health/livestock-and-poultry-disease/current-status", "transition_source_url": "https://direct.aphis.usda.gov/news/agency-announcements/usda-announces-phased-reopening-southern-ports-livestock-trade-0"}}, {"factor_id": "beef_exports_ytd_intermediate", "horizon": "intermediate", "raw_value": -17.2, "unit": "percent", "direction": -1, "strength": 0.86, "quality": 0.62, "freshness_state": "LAGGED", "freshness_multiplier": 0.45, "context_contribution": -3.3592, "observed_at_ct": "2026-05", "metadata": {}}, {"factor_id": "beef_imports_ytd_intermediate", "horizon": "intermediate", "raw_value": 9.9, "unit": "percent", "direction": -1, "strength": 0.495, "quality": 0.62, "freshness_state": "LAGGED", "freshness_multiplier": 0.45, "context_contribution": -1.9335, "observed_at_ct": "2026-05", "metadata": {}}, {"factor_id": "boxed_daily_change_near", "horizon": "near_term", "raw_value": -1.835, "unit": "usd_per_cwt", "direction": -1, "strength": 0.6117, "quality": 1.0, "freshness_state": "CURRENT", "freshness_multiplier": 1.0, "context_contribution": -8.5633, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-24 AFTERNOON", "metadata": {}}, {"factor_id": "cash_weekly_change_near", "horizon": "near_term", "raw_value": -8.21, "unit": "usd_per_cwt", "direction": -1, "strength": 1.0, "quality": 0.45, "freshness_state": "CURRENT", "freshness_multiplier": 1.0, "context_contribution": -15.3, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-24", "metadata": {}}, {"factor_id": "cof_marketings_intermediate", "horizon": "intermediate", "raw_value": 97.305214, "unit": "percent_of_year_ago", "direction": -1, "strength": 0.1797, "quality": 0.85, "freshness_state": "CURRENT", "freshness_multiplier": 1.0, "context_contribution": -2.7487, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-24", "metadata": {"exact_pct_year_ago": 97.30521382542472, "printed_pct_year_ago": 97.0, "actual_head": 1661000.0, "year_ago_head": 1707000.0, "yoy_head_change": -46000.0, "expected_head": 1655790.0, "head_surprise": 5210.0, "expectation_pct_year_ago": 97.0, "expectation_source": "User-provided Dow Jones/WSJ analyst table image", "expectation_release_date": "2026-07-24", "official_release_date": "2026-07-24", "release_dates_matched": true}}, {"factor_id": "cof_on_feed_structural", "horizon": "structural", "raw_value": 102.211435, "unit": "percent_of_year_ago", "direction": -1, "strength": 0.2211, "quality": 0.9, "freshness_state": "CURRENT", "freshness_multiplier": 1.0, "context_contribution": -3.5825, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-24", "metadata": {"exact_pct_year_ago": 102.21143473570658, "printed_pct_year_ago": 102.0, "actual_head": 11370000.0, "year_ago_head": 11124000.0, "yoy_head_change": 246000.0, "expected_head": 11368728.0, "head_surprise": 1272.0, "expectation_pct_year_ago": 102.2, "expectation_source": "User-provided Dow Jones/WSJ analyst table image", "expectation_release_date": "2026-07-24", "official_release_date": "2026-07-24", "release_dates_matched": true}}, {"factor_id": "cof_placements_intermediate", "horizon": "intermediate", "raw_value": 97.085357, "unit": "percent_of_year_ago", "direction": 1, "strength": 0.1943, "quality": 0.95, "freshness_state": "CURRENT", "freshness_multiplier": 1.0, "context_contribution": 5.907, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-24", "metadata": {"exact_pct_year_ago": 97.0853573907009, "printed_pct_year_ago": 97.0, "actual_head": 1399000.0, "year_ago_head": 1441000.0, "yoy_head_change": -42000.0, "expected_head": 1412180.0, "head_surprise": -13180.0, "expectation_pct_year_ago": 98.0, "expectation_source": "User-provided Dow Jones/WSJ analyst table image", "expectation_release_date": "2026-07-24", "official_release_date": "2026-07-24", "release_dates_matched": true}}, {"factor_id": "cot_liquidation_risk_near", "horizon": "near_term", "raw_value": 66.9, "unit": "historical_percentile", "direction": 0, "strength": 0.1183, "quality": 0.82, "freshness_state": "CURRENT", "freshness_multiplier": 1.0, "context_contribution": 0.0, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-21", "metadata": {}}, {"factor_id": "dressed_weight_yoy_intermediate", "horizon": "intermediate", "raw_value": 23.0, "unit": "pounds_per_head", "direction": -1, "strength": 0.7667, "quality": 0.88, "freshness_state": "CURRENT", "freshness_multiplier": 1.0, "context_contribution": -15.5173, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-17", "metadata": {"latest_dressed_weight_lbs": 887.0, "year_ago_dressed_weight_lbs": 864.0}}, {"factor_id": "drought_rebuild_conditions_structural", "horizon": "structural", "raw_value": 99.8, "unit": "percent_of_normal", "direction": 0, "strength": 0.008, "quality": 0.58, "freshness_state": "WATCH", "freshness_multiplier": 0.6, "context_contribution": 0.0, "observed_at_ct": "2026-06-01", "metadata": {}}, {"factor_id": "futures_ma_location_near", "horizon": "near_term", "raw_value": -6.819583, "unit": "percent", "direction": -1, "strength": 1.0, "quality": 0.78, "freshness_state": "STALE", "freshness_multiplier": 0.0, "context_contribution": -0.0, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-22", "metadata": {"instrument_id": 42325272, "source_file": "/opt/alpha/data/databento/parquet/leq6_fixed_ohlcv_1m_2025_2026.parquet", "last_ts": "2026-07-22 18:04:00+00:00", "session_complete": true, "contract_identity_guard": "PASS"}}, {"factor_id": "kill_throughput_proxy_structural", "horizon": "structural", "raw_value": -11.138058, "unit": "percent", "direction": 0, "strength": 0.7425, "quality": 0.52, "freshness_state": "CURRENT", "freshness_multiplier": 1.0, "context_contribution": 0.0, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-24", "metadata": {}}, {"factor_id": "packer_cei_gross_spread_intermediate", "horizon": "intermediate", "raw_value": 3.65626, "unit": "usd_per_cwt_carcass", "direction": 0, "strength": 0.2438, "quality": 0.84, "freshness_state": "CURRENT", "freshness_multiplier": 1.0, "context_contribution": 0.0, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-24", "metadata": {"correct_sign": "DEMAND_BOX_MINUS_SUPPLY_LIVE", "per_head_proxy_excluded": true}}, {"factor_id": "tuesday_cutout_weekly_change_near", "horizon": "near_term", "raw_value": -1.718717, "unit": "percent", "direction": -1, "strength": 0.5729, "quality": 0.88, "freshness_state": "STALE", "freshness_multiplier": 0.0, "context_contribution": -0.0, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-07", "metadata": {"top_primal_driver": {"primal": "Rib", "average_contribution_usd_per_cwt": -3.4856, "share_of_absolute_impact_pct": 44.659}}}, {"factor_id": "weekly_slaughter_utilization_intermediate", "horizon": "intermediate", "raw_value": 94.473736, "unit": "percent_of_p95_throughput_proxy", "direction": 0, "strength": 0.2211, "quality": 0.58, "freshness_state": "CURRENT", "freshness_multiplier": 1.0, "context_contribution": 0.0, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-17", "metadata": {"slaughter_head": 525000.0, "p95_weekly_head": 555710.0, "holiday_distorted": false, "prior_week_slaughter_head": 529000.0}}], "contradiction_ids": ["tight_placements_vs_weak_cash", "tight_placements_vs_weak_wholesale", "high_on_feed_vs_lighter_placements", "scheduled_border_reopening_vs_lighter_placements"], "market_reference": {"source_id": "DATABENTO_LC_DAILY", "contract_method": "FIXED_CONTRACT_NON_STITCHED", "symbol": "LEV6", "instrument_id": 42325272, "date": "2026-07-22", "close": 219.2, "unit": "cents_per_pound", "roll_adjusted": false, "source_file": "/opt/alpha/data/databento/parquet/leq6_fixed_ohlcv_1m_2025_2026.parquet", "last_ts": "2026-07-22 18:04:00+00:00", "session_complete": true, "price_measure": "COMPLETED_SESSION_LAST_1M_CLOSE", "survivorship_note": "Reference is the observed fixed contract, not a stitched continuation series; close is the final 1-minute bar, not the official exchange settlement."}}, {"snapshot_id": "e4aae40c1b5e423c", "semantic_fingerprint": "e4aae40c1b5e423c8e8d4de3fbbbad0ca9232ee809684ab4157e251f61f452a3", "generated_at_ct": "2026-07-25T13:07:39.742962-05:00", "headline": {"text": "Near term BEARISH; 1-3 months BEARISH; 6-24 months NEUTRAL.", "what_changed": "USDA scheduled a conditional Douglas, Arizona cattle-port reopening for 2026-08-24; southern cattle ports remain closed today, while Santa Teresa and Columbus have no confirmed opening dates. The latest COF report showed 11.370M on feed (+246K; +2.211% YoY), 1.399M placements (-42K; -2.915% YoY), and 1.661M marketings (-46K; -2.695% YoY); placements were -13.2K head versus the stored release-matched expectation.", "dominant_driver": {"factor_id": "cash_weekly_change_near", "label": "Live cash change versus last week", "raw_value": -8.21, "unit": "usd_per_cwt", "direction": -1, "context_contribution": -15.3, "metadata": {}}, "contradiction": "Pipeline tightening conflicts with current cash weakness.", "confidence": "LOW"}, "horizons": {"near_term": {"window": "1-10 sessions", "bias": "BEARISH", "context_score": -53.2, "confidence": "LOW"}, "intermediate": {"window": "1-3 months", "bias": "BEARISH", "context_score": -24.4, "confidence": "MEDIUM"}, "structural": {"window": "6-24 months", "bias": "NEUTRAL", "context_score": -12.6, "confidence": "MEDIUM"}}, "factors": [{"factor_id": "aphis_southern_ports_reopening_intermediate", "horizon": "intermediate", "raw_value": -1.0, "unit": "typed_supply_transition_direction_code", "direction": -1, "strength": 0.45, "quality": 0.82, "freshness_state": "CURRENT", "freshness_multiplier": 1.0, "context_contribution": -7.011, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-24", "metadata": {"state_machine": "CLOSED -> PHASED_REOPEN_SCHEDULED", "current_state": "CLOSED", "announcement_date": "2026-07-24", "effective_date": "2026-08-24", "scheduled_ports": [{"port": "Douglas, AZ", "effective_date": "2026-08-24", "status": "SCHEDULED"}], "preparation_ports": [{"port": "Santa Teresa, NM", "effective_date": null}, {"port": "Columbus, NM", "effective_date": null}], "contingency": "Mexico adherence to the Joint Action Plan", "inspection_requirement": "Every animal entering through reopened ports receives a full USDA New World screwworm inspection.", "confirmation_required": true, "current_status_source_url": "https://direct.aphis.usda.gov/animals/animal-health/livestock-and-poultry-disease/current-status", "transition_source_url": "https://direct.aphis.usda.gov/news/agency-announcements/usda-announces-phased-reopening-southern-ports-livestock-trade-0"}}, {"factor_id": "beef_exports_ytd_intermediate", "horizon": "intermediate", "raw_value": -17.2, "unit": "percent", "direction": -1, "strength": 0.86, "quality": 0.62, "freshness_state": "LAGGED", "freshness_multiplier": 0.45, "context_contribution": -3.3592, "observed_at_ct": "2026-05", "metadata": {}}, {"factor_id": "beef_imports_ytd_intermediate", "horizon": "intermediate", "raw_value": 9.9, "unit": "percent", "direction": -1, "strength": 0.495, "quality": 0.62, "freshness_state": "LAGGED", "freshness_multiplier": 0.45, "context_contribution": -1.9335, "observed_at_ct": "2026-05", "metadata": {}}, {"factor_id": "boxed_daily_change_near", "horizon": "near_term", "raw_value": -1.835, "unit": "usd_per_cwt", "direction": -1, "strength": 0.6117, "quality": 1.0, "freshness_state": "CURRENT", "freshness_multiplier": 1.0, "context_contribution": -8.5633, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-24 AFTERNOON", "metadata": {}}, {"factor_id": "cash_weekly_change_near", "horizon": "near_term", "raw_value": -8.21, "unit": "usd_per_cwt", "direction": -1, "strength": 1.0, "quality": 0.45, "freshness_state": "CURRENT", "freshness_multiplier": 1.0, "context_contribution": -15.3, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-24", "metadata": {}}, {"factor_id": "cof_marketings_intermediate", "horizon": "intermediate", "raw_value": 97.305214, "unit": "percent_of_year_ago", "direction": -1, "strength": 0.1797, "quality": 0.85, "freshness_state": "CURRENT", "freshness_multiplier": 1.0, "context_contribution": -2.7487, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-24", "metadata": {"exact_pct_year_ago": 97.30521382542472, "printed_pct_year_ago": 97.0, "actual_head": 1661000.0, "year_ago_head": 1707000.0, "yoy_head_change": -46000.0, "expected_head": 1655790.0, "head_surprise": 5210.0, "expectation_pct_year_ago": 97.0, "expectation_source": "User-provided Dow Jones/WSJ analyst table image", "expectation_release_date": "2026-07-24", "official_release_date": "2026-07-24", "release_dates_matched": true}}, {"factor_id": "cof_on_feed_structural", "horizon": "structural", "raw_value": 102.211435, "unit": "percent_of_year_ago", "direction": -1, "strength": 0.2211, "quality": 0.9, "freshness_state": "CURRENT", "freshness_multiplier": 1.0, "context_contribution": -3.5825, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-24", "metadata": {"exact_pct_year_ago": 102.21143473570658, "printed_pct_year_ago": 102.0, "actual_head": 11370000.0, "year_ago_head": 11124000.0, "yoy_head_change": 246000.0, "expected_head": 11368728.0, "head_surprise": 1272.0, "expectation_pct_year_ago": 102.2, "expectation_source": "User-provided Dow Jones/WSJ analyst table image", "expectation_release_date": "2026-07-24", "official_release_date": "2026-07-24", "release_dates_matched": true}}, {"factor_id": "cof_placements_intermediate", "horizon": "intermediate", "raw_value": 97.085357, "unit": "percent_of_year_ago", "direction": 1, "strength": 0.1943, "quality": 0.95, "freshness_state": "CURRENT", "freshness_multiplier": 1.0, "context_contribution": 5.907, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-24", "metadata": {"exact_pct_year_ago": 97.0853573907009, "printed_pct_year_ago": 97.0, "actual_head": 1399000.0, "year_ago_head": 1441000.0, "yoy_head_change": -42000.0, "expected_head": 1412180.0, "head_surprise": -13180.0, "expectation_pct_year_ago": 98.0, "expectation_source": "User-provided Dow Jones/WSJ analyst table image", "expectation_release_date": "2026-07-24", "official_release_date": "2026-07-24", "release_dates_matched": true}}, {"factor_id": "cot_liquidation_risk_near", "horizon": "near_term", "raw_value": 66.9, "unit": "historical_percentile", "direction": 0, "strength": 0.1183, "quality": 0.82, "freshness_state": "CURRENT", "freshness_multiplier": 1.0, "context_contribution": 0.0, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-21", "metadata": {}}, {"factor_id": "dressed_weight_yoy_intermediate", "horizon": "intermediate", "raw_value": 23.0, "unit": "pounds_per_head", "direction": -1, "strength": 0.7667, "quality": 0.88, "freshness_state": "CURRENT", "freshness_multiplier": 1.0, "context_contribution": -15.5173, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-17", "metadata": {"latest_dressed_weight_lbs": 887.0, "year_ago_dressed_weight_lbs": 864.0}}, {"factor_id": "drought_rebuild_conditions_structural", "horizon": "structural", "raw_value": 99.8, "unit": "percent_of_normal", "direction": 0, "strength": 0.008, "quality": 0.58, "freshness_state": "WATCH", "freshness_multiplier": 0.6, "context_contribution": 0.0, "observed_at_ct": "2026-06-01", "metadata": {}}, {"factor_id": "futures_ma_location_near", "horizon": "near_term", "raw_value": -6.819583, "unit": "percent", "direction": -1, "strength": 1.0, "quality": 0.78, "freshness_state": "STALE", "freshness_multiplier": 0.0, "context_contribution": -0.0, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-22", "metadata": {"instrument_id": 42325272, "source_file": "/opt/alpha/data/databento/parquet/leq6_fixed_ohlcv_1m_2025_2026.parquet", "last_ts": "2026-07-22 18:04:00+00:00", "session_complete": true, "contract_identity_guard": "PASS"}}, {"factor_id": "kill_throughput_proxy_structural", "horizon": "structural", "raw_value": -11.138058, "unit": "percent", "direction": 0, "strength": 0.7425, "quality": 0.52, "freshness_state": "CURRENT", "freshness_multiplier": 1.0, "context_contribution": 0.0, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-25", "metadata": {}}, {"factor_id": "packer_cei_gross_spread_intermediate", "horizon": "intermediate", "raw_value": 3.65626, "unit": "usd_per_cwt_carcass", "direction": 0, "strength": 0.2438, "quality": 0.84, "freshness_state": "CURRENT", "freshness_multiplier": 1.0, "context_contribution": 0.0, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-24", "metadata": {"correct_sign": "DEMAND_BOX_MINUS_SUPPLY_LIVE", "per_head_proxy_excluded": true}}, {"factor_id": "tuesday_cutout_weekly_change_near", "horizon": "near_term", "raw_value": -1.718717, "unit": "percent", "direction": -1, "strength": 0.5729, "quality": 0.88, "freshness_state": "STALE", "freshness_multiplier": 0.0, "context_contribution": -0.0, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-07", "metadata": {"top_primal_driver": {"primal": "Rib", "average_contribution_usd_per_cwt": -3.4856, "share_of_absolute_impact_pct": 44.659}}}, {"factor_id": "weekly_slaughter_utilization_intermediate", "horizon": "intermediate", "raw_value": 94.473736, "unit": "percent_of_p95_throughput_proxy", "direction": 0, "strength": 0.2211, "quality": 0.58, "freshness_state": "CURRENT", "freshness_multiplier": 1.0, "context_contribution": 0.0, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-17", "metadata": {"slaughter_head": 525000.0, "p95_weekly_head": 555710.0, "holiday_distorted": false, "prior_week_slaughter_head": 529000.0}}], "contradiction_ids": ["tight_placements_vs_weak_cash", "tight_placements_vs_weak_wholesale", "high_on_feed_vs_lighter_placements", "scheduled_border_reopening_vs_lighter_placements"], "market_reference": {"source_id": "DATABENTO_LC_DAILY", "contract_method": "FIXED_CONTRACT_NON_STITCHED", "symbol": "LEV6", "instrument_id": 42325272, "date": "2026-07-22", "close": 219.2, "unit": "cents_per_pound", "roll_adjusted": false, "source_file": "/opt/alpha/data/databento/parquet/leq6_fixed_ohlcv_1m_2025_2026.parquet", "last_ts": "2026-07-22 18:04:00+00:00", "session_complete": true, "price_measure": "COMPLETED_SESSION_LAST_1M_CLOSE", "survivorship_note": "Reference is the observed fixed contract, not a stitched continuation series; close is the final 1-minute bar, not the official exchange settlement."}}]}