{"schema_version": "1.1.0", "module": "ALPHA_MARKET_THESIS_V1", "status": "PASS", "generated_at_ct": "2026-07-26T01:25:17.455792-05:00", "latest_data_time_ct": "2026-07-25", "source": "Independent typed compiler over primary-source Alpha outputs", "usable_for_decision": true, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "decision_use": "CONTEXT", "max_points": 0, "mode": "CONTEXT_ONLY", "signal": "Near term BEARISH; 1-3 months BEARISH; 6-24 months NEUTRAL.", "bias": "BEARISH", "confidence": "LOW", "reason": "Near term BEARISH; 1-3 months BEARISH; 6-24 months NEUTRAL.", "headline": {"text": "Near term BEARISH; 1-3 months BEARISH; 6-24 months NEUTRAL.", "what_changed": "USDA scheduled a conditional Douglas, Arizona cattle-port reopening for 2026-08-24; southern cattle ports remain closed today, while Santa Teresa and Columbus have no confirmed opening dates. The latest COF report showed 11.370M on feed (+246K; +2.211% YoY), 1.399M placements (-42K; -2.915% YoY), and 1.661M marketings (-46K; -2.695% YoY); placements were -13.2K head versus the stored release-matched expectation.", "dominant_driver": {"factor_id": "cash_weekly_change_near", "label": "Live cash change versus last week", "raw_value": -8.21, "unit": "usd_per_cwt", "direction": -1, "context_contribution": -15.3, "metadata": {}}, "contradiction": "Pipeline tightening conflicts with current cash weakness.", "confidence": "LOW"}, "horizons": {"near_term": {"window": "1-10 sessions", "bias": "BEARISH", "context_score": -53.2, "confidence": "LOW", "confidence_value": 0.39, "coverage": 0.39, "agreement": 1.0, "decision_use": "CONTEXT", "max_points": 0, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "drivers": [{"factor_id": "cash_weekly_change_near", "horizon": "near_term", "family": "cash_market", "label": "Live cash change versus last week", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_CASH", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/cash_cattle_status.json", "source_url": null, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-24", "raw_value": -8.21, "unit": "usd_per_cwt", "basis": "USDA AMS blended live cash change", "direction": -1, "strength": 1.0, "quality": 0.45, "thesis_weight": 34.0, "context_contribution": -15.3, "decision_use": "CONTEXT", "max_points": 0, "promotion_gate_passed": false, "usable_for_decision": true, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "evidence_grade": "OBSERVED_PRIMARY", "freshness": {"state": "CURRENT", "expected_current": true, "age_seconds": 177917.456, "multiplier": 1.0, "cadence": "USDA AMS daily cash cattle index", "reason": "2026-07-24 meets expected business date 2026-07-24."}, "reason": "Weekly cash direction is a nearby leverage observation, not a standalone futures trigger.", "metadata": {}}, {"factor_id": "boxed_daily_change_near", "horizon": "near_term", "family": "wholesale_beef", "label": "Daily Choice/Select average change", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_BOXED_DAILY", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/boxed_beef_status.json", "source_url": "https://mpr.datamart.ams.usda.gov/services/v1.1/reports/2453?q=report_date=07/24/2026&allSections=true", "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-24 AFTERNOON", "raw_value": -1.835, "unit": "usd_per_cwt", "basis": "Average of official Choice and Select daily changes", "direction": -1, "strength": 0.6117, "quality": 1.0, "thesis_weight": 14.0, "context_contribution": -8.5633, "decision_use": "CONTEXT", "max_points": 0, "promotion_gate_passed": false, "usable_for_decision": true, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "evidence_grade": "DERIVED_PRIMARY", "freshness": {"state": "CURRENT", "expected_current": true, "age_seconds": 177917.456, "multiplier": 1.0, "cadence": "USDA AMS business-day AM/PM release sessions", "reason": "2026-07-24 AFTERNOON meets expected 2026-07-24 AFTERNOON."}, "reason": "One-session wholesale movement is confirmation only and receives less weight than the weekly change.", "metadata": {}}, {"factor_id": "tuesday_cutout_weekly_change_near", "horizon": "near_term", "family": "wholesale_beef", "label": "Tuesday Choice/Select weekly change", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_BOXED_TUESDAY", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/boxed_beef_tuesday_history.json", "source_url": "https://mpr.datamart.ams.usda.gov/services/v1.1/reports/2453", "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-07", "raw_value": -1.7187167624055477, "unit": "percent", "basis": "Average Tuesday-to-Tuesday Choice and Select cutout change", "direction": -1, "strength": 0.5729, "quality": 0.88, "thesis_weight": 25.0, "context_contribution": -0.0, "decision_use": "CONTEXT", "max_points": 0, "promotion_gate_passed": false, "usable_for_decision": true, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "evidence_grade": "DERIVED_PRIMARY", "freshness": {"state": "STALE", "expected_current": false, "age_seconds": 1646717.456, "multiplier": 0.0, "cadence": "Weekly Tuesday LM_XB403 cumulative final", "reason": "Older than one weekly release behind 2026-07-21."}, "reason": "Weekly wholesale direction includes breadth but remains a fundamental input, not a validated futures edge. Top primal driver: Rib, -3.49/cwt average contribution (44.7% of absolute primal impact).", "metadata": {"top_primal_driver": {"primal": "Rib", "average_contribution_usd_per_cwt": -3.4856, "share_of_absolute_impact_pct": 44.659}}}, {"factor_id": "cot_liquidation_risk_near", "horizon": "near_term", "family": "positioning", "label": "Managed Money crowding with post-COT OI", "source_id": "CFTC_COT", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/cot_positioning_status.json", "source_url": null, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-21", "raw_value": 66.9, "unit": "historical_percentile", "basis": "Managed Money net percent-of-OI all-history rank", "direction": 0, "strength": 0.1183, "quality": 0.82, "thesis_weight": 19.0, "context_contribution": 0.0, "decision_use": "CONTEXT", "max_points": 0, "promotion_gate_passed": false, "usable_for_decision": true, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "evidence_grade": "DERIVED_PRIMARY", "freshness": {"state": "CURRENT", "expected_current": true, "age_seconds": 437117.456, "multiplier": 1.0, "cadence": "Weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders", "reason": "Observation is 5.1 calendar days old."}, "reason": "Extreme length plus contracting OI is liquidation risk; positioning alone does not choose an entry.", "metadata": {}}, {"factor_id": "futures_ma_location_near", "horizon": "near_term", "family": "market_confirmation", "label": "Fixed-contract close versus MA40/MA100", "source_id": "DATABENTO_LC_DAILY", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/sma_market_outlook_status.json", "source_url": null, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-22", "raw_value": -6.819583297134013, "unit": "percent", "basis": "Close versus average of current MA40 and MA100", "direction": -1, "strength": 1.0, "quality": 0.78, "thesis_weight": 23.0, "context_contribution": -0.0, "decision_use": "CONTEXT", "max_points": 0, "promotion_gate_passed": false, "usable_for_decision": true, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "evidence_grade": "DERIVED_PRIMARY", "freshness": {"state": "STALE", "expected_current": false, "age_seconds": 350717.456, "multiplier": 0.0, "cadence": "Databento fixed-contract completed-session last-1m-close context", "reason": "Older than one business observation behind expected 2026-07-24."}, "reason": "Uses a completed, instrument-validated fixed-contract observation and ignores expired narrative labels.", "metadata": {"instrument_id": 42325272, "source_file": "/opt/alpha/data/databento/parquet/leq6_fixed_ohlcv_1m_2025_2026.parquet", "last_ts": "2026-07-22 18:04:00+00:00", "session_complete": true, "contract_identity_guard": "PASS"}}], "confirmations": ["cash_weekly_change_near", "boxed_daily_change_near"], "invalidations": [{"factor_id": "cash_weekly_change_near", "current_value": -8.21, "unit": "usd_per_cwt", "condition": "Direction reverses on the next official observation."}, {"factor_id": "boxed_daily_change_near", "current_value": -1.835, "unit": "usd_per_cwt", "condition": "Direction reverses on the next official observation."}, {"factor_id": "tuesday_cutout_weekly_change_near", "current_value": -1.7187167624055477, "unit": "percent", "condition": "Direction reverses on the next official observation."}], "next_catalysts": [{"source_id": "USDA_AMS_CASH", "factor_id": "cash_weekly_change_near", "trigger": "Next scheduled primary-source update"}, {"source_id": "USDA_AMS_BOXED_DAILY", "factor_id": "boxed_daily_change_near", "trigger": "Next scheduled primary-source update"}, {"source_id": "USDA_AMS_BOXED_TUESDAY", "factor_id": "tuesday_cutout_weekly_change_near", "trigger": "Next scheduled primary-source update"}]}, "intermediate": {"window": "1-3 months", "bias": "BEARISH", "context_score": -24.4, "confidence": "MEDIUM", "confidence_value": 0.658, "coverage": 0.742, "agreement": 0.676, "decision_use": "CONTEXT", "max_points": 0, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "drivers": [{"factor_id": "dressed_weight_yoy_intermediate", "horizon": "intermediate", "family": "beef_tonnage", "label": "Completed-week dressed cattle weight YoY", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/weekly_kill_weights.csv", "source_url": "https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/lswwcbs.pdf", "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-17", "raw_value": 23.0, "unit": "pounds_per_head", "basis": "Latest completed-week dressed weight minus the same week a year earlier", "direction": -1, "strength": 0.7667, "quality": 0.88, "thesis_weight": 23.0, "context_contribution": -15.5173, "decision_use": "CONTEXT", "max_points": 0, "promotion_gate_passed": false, "usable_for_decision": true, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "evidence_grade": "DERIVED_PRIMARY", "freshness": {"state": "CURRENT", "expected_current": true, "age_seconds": 782717.456, "multiplier": 1.0, "cadence": "USDA AMS completed weekly cattle slaughter and weight summary", "reason": "Observation is 9.1 calendar days old."}, "reason": "Higher dressed weights add beef tonnage per harvested animal and offset part of a lower head count.", "metadata": {"latest_dressed_weight_lbs": 887.0, "year_ago_dressed_weight_lbs": 864.0}}, {"factor_id": "aphis_southern_ports_reopening_intermediate", "horizon": "intermediate", "family": "animal_health_trade_flow", "label": "USDA conditional Douglas cattle-port reopening \u2014 2026-08-24", "source_id": "USDA_APHIS_ANIMAL_HEALTH", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/animal_health_status.json", "source_url": "https://direct.aphis.usda.gov/news/agency-announcements/usda-announces-phased-reopening-southern-ports-livestock-trade-0", "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-24", "raw_value": -1.0, "unit": "typed_supply_transition_direction_code", "basis": "Official APHIS state transition: -1 supply easing, 0 unverified, +1 supply tightening", "direction": -1, "strength": 0.45, "quality": 0.82, "thesis_weight": 19.0, "context_contribution": -7.011, "decision_use": "CONTEXT", "max_points": 0, "promotion_gate_passed": false, "usable_for_decision": true, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "evidence_grade": "DERIVED_PRIMARY", "freshness": {"state": "CURRENT", "expected_current": true, "age_seconds": 177917.456, "multiplier": 1.0, "cadence": "USDA APHIS official southern-port policy announcements", "reason": "Observation is 2.1 calendar days old."}, "reason": "Ports remain closed today, but USDA scheduled a contingent Douglas, Arizona reopening inside the 1-3 month window. This is forward supply easing, not proof that cattle are already moving.", "metadata": {"state_machine": "CLOSED -> PHASED_REOPEN_SCHEDULED", "current_state": "CLOSED", "announcement_date": "2026-07-24", "effective_date": "2026-08-24", "scheduled_ports": [{"port": "Douglas, AZ", "effective_date": "2026-08-24", "status": "SCHEDULED"}], "preparation_ports": [{"port": "Santa Teresa, NM", "effective_date": null}, {"port": "Columbus, NM", "effective_date": null}], "contingency": "Mexico adherence to the Joint Action Plan", "inspection_requirement": "Every animal entering through reopened ports receives a full USDA New World screwworm inspection.", "confirmation_required": true, "current_status_source_url": "https://direct.aphis.usda.gov/animals/animal-health/livestock-and-poultry-disease/current-status", "transition_source_url": "https://direct.aphis.usda.gov/news/agency-announcements/usda-announces-phased-reopening-southern-ports-livestock-trade-0"}}, {"factor_id": "cof_placements_intermediate", "horizon": "intermediate", "family": "supply_pipeline", "label": "COF placements: 1.399M vs 1.441M (-42K; -2.915% YoY)", "source_id": "USDA_NASS_COF", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/cattle_on_feed_status.json", "source_url": "https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795993/cofd0726.txt", "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-24", "raw_value": 97.0853573907009, "unit": "percent_of_year_ago", "basis": "Exact official placements head-count ratio; USDA's published percentage is rounded to a whole number", "direction": 1, "strength": 0.1943, "quality": 0.95, "thesis_weight": 32.0, "context_contribution": 5.907, "decision_use": "CONTEXT", "max_points": 0, "promotion_gate_passed": false, "usable_for_decision": true, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "evidence_grade": "OBSERVED_PRIMARY", "freshness": {"state": "CURRENT", "expected_current": true, "age_seconds": 177917.456, "multiplier": 1.0, "cadence": "Monthly USDA NASS Cattle on Feed", "reason": "Observation is 2.1 calendar days old."}, "reason": "Below-100 placements tighten the later fed-cattle pipeline; above-100 placements expand it. The score uses exact heads, while the expectation comparison is retained as metadata to avoid double counting one report.", "metadata": {"exact_pct_year_ago": 97.0853573907009, "printed_pct_year_ago": 97.0, "actual_head": 1399000.0, "year_ago_head": 1441000.0, "yoy_head_change": -42000.0, "expected_head": 1412180.0, "head_surprise": -13180.0, "expectation_pct_year_ago": 98.0, "expectation_source": "User-provided Dow Jones/WSJ analyst table image", "expectation_release_date": "2026-07-24", "official_release_date": "2026-07-24", "release_dates_matched": true}}, {"factor_id": "beef_exports_ytd_intermediate", "horizon": "intermediate", "family": "trade_demand", "label": "Beef exports YTD versus prior YTD", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_TRADE", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/import_exports_status.json", "source_url": null, "observed_at_ct": "2026-05", "raw_value": -17.2, "unit": "percent", "basis": "Carcass-weight-equivalent exports YTD through the latest month versus prior-year YTD", "direction": -1, "strength": 0.86, "quality": 0.62, "thesis_weight": 14.0, "context_contribution": -3.3592, "decision_use": "CONTEXT", "max_points": 0, "promotion_gate_passed": false, "usable_for_decision": true, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "evidence_grade": "DERIVED_PRIMARY", "freshness": {"state": "LAGGED", "expected_current": true, "age_seconds": 7435517.456, "multiplier": 0.45, "cadence": "Monthly USDA ERS livestock and meat trade", "reason": "Expected lagged series; observation is 86.1 calendar days old."}, "reason": "Lower YTD exports weaken external demand; the monthly publication lag still limits timing value.", "metadata": {}}, {"factor_id": "cof_marketings_intermediate", "horizon": "intermediate", "family": "current_flow", "label": "COF marketings: 1.661M vs 1.707M (-46K; -2.695% YoY)", "source_id": "USDA_NASS_COF", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/cattle_on_feed_status.json", "source_url": "https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795993/cofd0726.txt", "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-24", "raw_value": 97.30521382542472, "unit": "percent_of_year_ago", "basis": "Exact official marketings head-count ratio; USDA's published percentage is rounded to a whole number", "direction": -1, "strength": 0.1797, "quality": 0.85, "thesis_weight": 18.0, "context_contribution": -2.7487, "decision_use": "CONTEXT", "max_points": 0, "promotion_gate_passed": false, "usable_for_decision": true, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "evidence_grade": "OBSERVED_PRIMARY", "freshness": {"state": "CURRENT", "expected_current": true, "age_seconds": 177917.456, "multiplier": 1.0, "cadence": "Monthly USDA NASS Cattle on Feed", "reason": "Observation is 2.1 calendar days old."}, "reason": "Below-100 marketings reduce current flow even when the later placement pipeline is tight.", "metadata": {"exact_pct_year_ago": 97.30521382542472, "printed_pct_year_ago": 97.0, "actual_head": 1661000.0, "year_ago_head": 1707000.0, "yoy_head_change": -46000.0, "expected_head": 1655790.0, "head_surprise": 5210.0, "expectation_pct_year_ago": 97.0, "expectation_source": "User-provided Dow Jones/WSJ analyst table image", "expectation_release_date": "2026-07-24", "official_release_date": "2026-07-24", "release_dates_matched": true}}, {"factor_id": "beef_imports_ytd_intermediate", "horizon": "intermediate", "family": "trade_supply", "label": "Beef imports YTD versus prior YTD", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_TRADE", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/import_exports_status.json", "source_url": null, "observed_at_ct": "2026-05", "raw_value": 9.9, "unit": "percent", "basis": "Carcass-weight-equivalent imports YTD through the latest month versus prior-year YTD", "direction": -1, "strength": 0.495, "quality": 0.62, "thesis_weight": 14.0, "context_contribution": -1.9335, "decision_use": "CONTEXT", "max_points": 0, "promotion_gate_passed": false, "usable_for_decision": true, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "evidence_grade": "DERIVED_PRIMARY", "freshness": {"state": "LAGGED", "expected_current": true, "age_seconds": 7435517.456, "multiplier": 0.45, "cadence": "Monthly USDA ERS livestock and meat trade", "reason": "Expected lagged series; observation is 86.1 calendar days old."}, "reason": "Higher YTD imports add domestic beef supply; the monthly publication lag still limits timing value.", "metadata": {}}, {"factor_id": "packer_cei_gross_spread_intermediate", "horizon": "intermediate", "family": "packer_economics", "label": "USDA CEI gross packer spread", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_CEI", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/packer_economics_status.json", "source_url": "https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/nw_ls910.txt", "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-24", "raw_value": 3.65626, "unit": "usd_per_cwt_carcass", "basis": "Demand box equivalent minus supply live equivalent, quality-mix blended", "direction": 0, "strength": 0.2438, "quality": 0.84, "thesis_weight": 9.0, "context_contribution": 0.0, "decision_use": "CONTEXT", "max_points": 0, "promotion_gate_passed": false, "usable_for_decision": true, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "evidence_grade": "DERIVED_PRIMARY", "freshness": {"state": "CURRENT", "expected_current": true, "age_seconds": 177917.456, "multiplier": 1.0, "cadence": "USDA AMS daily Beef Carcass Price Equivalent Index", "reason": "2026-07-24 meets expected business date 2026-07-24."}, "reason": "The unit-consistent CEI spread describes processor economics, but negative economics can reduce cattle demand while later constraining beef output; it is intentionally two-sided.", "metadata": {"correct_sign": "DEMAND_BOX_MINUS_SUPPLY_LIVE", "per_head_proxy_excluded": true}}, {"factor_id": "weekly_slaughter_utilization_intermediate", "horizon": "intermediate", "family": "completed_slaughter", "label": "Completed weekly slaughter versus p95 throughput proxy", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/weekly_kill_weights.csv", "source_url": "https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/lswwcbs.pdf", "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-17", "raw_value": 94.47373630130824, "unit": "percent_of_p95_throughput_proxy", "basis": "Completed weekly cattle slaughter divided by current-year p95 weekly FI throughput", "direction": 0, "strength": 0.2211, "quality": 0.58, "thesis_weight": 7.0, "context_contribution": 0.0, "decision_use": "CONTEXT", "max_points": 0, "promotion_gate_passed": false, "usable_for_decision": true, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "evidence_grade": "DERIVED_PRIMARY", "freshness": {"state": "CURRENT", "expected_current": true, "age_seconds": 782717.456, "multiplier": 1.0, "cadence": "USDA AMS completed weekly cattle slaughter and weight summary", "reason": "Observation is 9.1 calendar days old."}, "reason": "Utilization is economically two-sided and remains neutral context rather than a price direction.", "metadata": {"slaughter_head": 525000.0, "p95_weekly_head": 555710.0, "holiday_distorted": false, "prior_week_slaughter_head": 529000.0}}], "confirmations": ["dressed_weight_yoy_intermediate", "aphis_southern_ports_reopening_intermediate", "beef_exports_ytd_intermediate", "cof_marketings_intermediate", "beef_imports_ytd_intermediate"], "invalidations": [{"factor_id": "dressed_weight_yoy_intermediate", "current_value": 23.0, "unit": "pounds_per_head", "condition": "Direction reverses on the next official observation."}, {"factor_id": "aphis_southern_ports_reopening_intermediate", "current_value": -1.0, "unit": "typed_supply_transition_direction_code", "condition": "Direction reverses on the next official observation."}, {"factor_id": "cof_placements_intermediate", "current_value": 97.0853573907009, "unit": "percent_of_year_ago", "condition": "Direction reverses on the next official observation."}], "next_catalysts": [{"source_id": "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT", "factor_id": "dressed_weight_yoy_intermediate", "trigger": "Next scheduled primary-source update"}, {"source_id": "USDA_APHIS_ANIMAL_HEALTH", "factor_id": "aphis_southern_ports_reopening_intermediate", "trigger": "Next scheduled primary-source update"}, {"source_id": "USDA_NASS_COF", "factor_id": "cof_placements_intermediate", "trigger": "Next scheduled primary-source update"}]}, "structural": {"window": "6-24 months", "bias": "NEUTRAL", "context_score": -12.6, "confidence": "MEDIUM", "confidence_value": 0.634, "coverage": 0.634, "agreement": 1.0, "decision_use": "CONTEXT", "max_points": 0, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "drivers": [{"factor_id": "cof_on_feed_structural", "horizon": "structural", "family": "current_inventory", "label": "COF inventory: 11.370M vs 11.124M (+246K; 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