{ "schema_version": "1.0.0", "module": "ALPHA_STRUCTURAL_RADAR_HISTORY_V1", "status": "PASS", "mode": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "decision_effect": "NONE", "wow_command_effect": "NONE", "vintage_count": 32, "vintage_head_hash": "046bcb6139e28d74876b49b3c511e1bc0d590e660997e28b9461289eaffab934", "persisted_checkpoint_validation": "PASS", "external_trust_anchor_present": false, "integrity_scope": "Strict JSON parsing and a hash chain protect new records; the prior history file checkpoints single-file tail loss. Pre-V2 legacy records retain semantic fingerprints but no record hash, and no external WORM anchor is claimed.", "vintages": [ { "balance_sheet": { "as_of": "2026-07-10", "periods": [ { "period": "Current feedlot inventory", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current fed-cattle inventory.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 23, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Cattle on feed", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_on_feed_head", "revision_status": "NEW_BASELINE", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "feedlot_inventory", "unit": "head", "value": 11682000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": 2.0 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Incoming placement pipeline", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Incoming fed-cattle pipeline.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 23, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Monthly placements", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_placements_head", "revision_status": "NEW_BASELINE", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "incoming_pipeline", "unit": "head", "value": 1704000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -10.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 23, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements under 600 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_less_than_600_lbs", "revision_status": "NEW_BASELINE", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 320000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 23, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 600-699 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_600_699_lbs", "revision_status": "NEW_BASELINE", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 240000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 23, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 700-799 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_700_799_lbs", "revision_status": "NEW_BASELINE", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 400000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 23, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 800-899 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_800_899_lbs", "revision_status": "NEW_BASELINE", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 444000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 23, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 900-999 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_900_999_lbs", "revision_status": "NEW_BASELINE", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 225000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 23, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 1,000+ lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_1000_lbs_and_greater", "revision_status": "NEW_BASELINE", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 75000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "USDA ERS-derived feeder-cattle reservoir outside feedlots; lower inventory can constrain future placements.", "freshness": { "cadence": "Quarterly USDA ERS feeder supply", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Feeder cattle outside feedlots", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots", "revision_status": "NEW_BASELINE", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_FEEDER_SUPPLY" ], "stage": "feeder_supply", "unit": "thousand_head", "value": 18776.97, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-04-01", "yoy_pct": 2.2631 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Fed-cattle outflow and meat production", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Fed-cattle outflow toward slaughter.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 23, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Monthly marketings", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_marketings_head", "revision_status": "NEW_BASELINE", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "fed_outflow", "unit": "head", "value": 1551000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -12.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Non-marketing feedlot disappearance.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 23, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Other disappearance", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_other_disappearance_head", "revision_status": "NEW_BASELINE", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "fed_outflow", "unit": "head", "value": 55000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -11.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Observed weekly cattle head throughput.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-12T04:03:59", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Weekly federally inspected slaughter", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head", "revision_status": "NEW_BASELINE", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "slaughter", "unit": "head", "value": 458000.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-03", "yoy_pct": -3.3755 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Pounds produced per slaughtered animal.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-12T04:03:59", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Average dressed weight", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "revision_status": "NEW_BASELINE", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "yield", "unit": "lb_per_head", "value": 891.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-03", "yoy_pct": 2.8868 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Observed weekly beef output combines head throughput and carcass yield.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-12T04:03:59", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Weekly beef production", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "NEW_BASELINE", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "meat_output", "unit": "million_lb", "value": 407.2, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-03", "yoy_pct": -0.5617 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Counterfactual pounds effect holding year-ago dressed weight constant.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-12T04:03:59", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Head-count contribution to weekly production change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_head_count_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "NEW_BASELINE", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "production_bridge", "unit": "million_lb", "value": -13.856, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-03", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Incremental pounds attributable to the dressed-weight change at current slaughter.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-12T04:03:59", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Dressed-weight contribution to weekly production change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "NEW_BASELINE", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "production_bridge", "unit": "million_lb", "value": 11.45, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-03", "yoy_pct": null } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Trade and domestic availability", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Imported beef adds to domestic carcass-weight-equivalent availability.", "freshness": { "state": "UNKNOWN" }, "label": "Year-to-date beef imports", "metadata": { "ytd_comparable": true, "ytd_through_month": 5 }, "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "NEW_BASELINE", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 2754566570.58, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": 9.9 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Exported beef removes product from domestic availability while reflecting foreign demand.", "freshness": { "state": "UNKNOWN" }, "label": "Year-to-date beef exports", "metadata": { "ytd_comparable": true, "ytd_through_month": 5 }, "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "NEW_BASELINE", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 978518541.27, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": -17.2 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Imports less exports; this is a product-availability measure, not a fed-cattle-equivalent count.", "freshness": { "state": "UNKNOWN" }, "label": "Year-to-date net beef imports", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "NEW_BASELINE", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 1776048029.31, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": -1.7187, "economic_read": "Weekly wholesale movement; descriptive context only because its futures validation gate has not passed.", "freshness": { "state": "UNKNOWN" }, "label": "Tuesday Choice/Select average weekly change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "tuesday_cutout_average_change_pct", "revision_status": "NEW_BASELINE", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_BOXED_TUESDAY" ], "stage": "wholesale_demand", "unit": "percent", "value": -1.7187, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-07", "yoy_pct": null } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Capacity, cash, herd, and policy context", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Standardized box-minus-live operating-spread proxy; not company net income and not a futures timing signal.", "freshness": { "business_release_lag": 0, "calendar_age_days": 2, "expected_report_date": "2026-07-10", "holiday_calendar_note": "Weekday-aware; USDA holiday exceptions may produce WATCH until the next release.", "reason": "Latest expected weekday USDA CEI report is present.", "release_cutoff_ct": "15:45", "report_date": "2026-07-10", "state": "PASS", "status": "PASS", "weekend_aware": true }, "label": "USDA CEI gross packer spread", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "revision_status": "NEW_BASELINE", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_CEI" ], "stage": "processing_economics", "unit": "usd_per_cwt_carcass", "value": -5.2648, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current operating status constrains or restores feeder-cattle inflow; duration and price impact are not assumed.", "freshness": { "state": "UNKNOWN" }, "label": "Southern livestock port status", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports", "revision_status": "NEW_BASELINE", "source_ids": [ "USDA_APHIS" ], "stage": "biological_policy", "unit": "status", "value": "CLOSED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current cash transmission and feedyard/packer leverage context.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "pass_max_days": 2, "state": "PASS", "watch_max_days": 5 }, "label": "Blended live cash cattle", "metadata": { "change_vs_last_week_usd_per_cwt": -7.14 }, "metric_id": "blended_live_cash", "revision_status": "NEW_BASELINE", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_CASH" ], "stage": "cash_transmission", "unit": "usd_per_cwt_live", "value": 247.99, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Replacement intentions inform herd rebuilding capacity; they do not guarantee retained females or calf-crop growth.", "freshness": { "cadence": "Annual USDA ERS herd replacement", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Intended heifer replacements", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "intended_heifer_replacements", "revision_status": "NEW_BASELINE", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_HERD_REPLACEMENT" ], "stage": "breeding_herd", "unit": "thousand_head", "value": 8618.8, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-01-01", "yoy_pct": 0.361 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" } ], "reconciliations": [ { "actual": 1704000.0, "check_id": "cof_placement_buckets", "expected": 1704000.0, "name": "Placement weight buckets sum to placements", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 1000.0, "unit": "head" }, { "actual": 11682000.0, "check_id": "cof_head_flow", "expected": 11682000.0, "name": "Opening inventory plus placements less outflows equals closing inventory", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 1000.0, "unit": "head" }, { "actual": 407.2, "check_id": "weekly_production_bridge", "expected": 407.094, "name": "Year-ago production plus head effect plus weight effect reconciles to current production", "passed": true, "residual": 0.106, "tolerance": 2.036, "unit": "million_lb" }, { "actual": 1776048029.31, "check_id": "net_trade_identity", "expected": 1776048029.31, "name": "Imports less exports equals net imports", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 0.01, "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent" } ], "status": "RECONCILED", "summary": { "beef_supply_change_pct": -0.5617, "dressed_weight_yoy_pct": 2.8868, "exports_ytd_change_pct": -17.2, "imports_ytd_change_pct": 9.9, "observation_count": 24, "reconciliation_count": 4, "reconciliation_pass_count": 4, "slaughter_yoy_pct": -3.3755, "source_count": 9, "source_ledger_row_count": 9, "status": "RECONCILED", "weight_offset_of_head_decline_pct": 82.64 }, "unit_policy": "No cattle-head-to-beef-pound conversion is made without an exposed observed weight or typed derivation." }, "change_alerts": [ { "alert_id": "later_fed_pipeline_tightening", "counter_evidence": "Current cattle on feed are +2.0% YoY.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "TIGHTENING_LATER", "horizon": "3-18 months", "invalidation": "Placements and feeder availability normalize, or the livestock-border constraint is formally removed.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "WATCH", "summary": "The later fed-cattle pipeline is tightening, but this is not a futures signal.", "triggers": [ { "label": "Placements -10.0% YoY", "metric_id": "cof_placements_head" }, { "label": "Southern livestock ports closed", "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports" } ] }, { "alert_id": "weight_offsets_head_decline", "counter_evidence": "Reported weekly beef production remains -0.6% YoY.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "MEAT_CUSHION", "horizon": "current to 3 months", "invalidation": "Dressed weights stop offsetting lower head throughput.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "ACTIVE", "summary": "Heavier carcasses are replacing part of the beef tonnage lost to lower slaughter.", "triggers": [ { "label": "Slaughter -3.4% YoY", "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head" }, { "label": "Dressed weight +2.9% YoY", "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs" } ] }, { "alert_id": "trade_cushions_domestic_availability", "counter_evidence": "Product mix and imported lean are not fully interchangeable with Choice fed-beef cuts.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "DOMESTIC_AVAILABILITY_CUSHION", "horizon": "current to 6 months", "invalidation": "Imports reverse lower and exports recover enough to remove the net availability cushion.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "ACTIVE", "summary": "Trade flows are cushioning domestic beef availability despite tighter cattle head counts.", "triggers": [ { "label": "YTD imports +9.9%", "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe" }, { "label": "YTD exports -17.2%", "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe" } ] }, { "alert_id": "processing_margin_pressure", "counter_evidence": "The CEI proxy is not company net income and plant-level economics vary.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "CAPACITY_RATIONALIZATION_RISK", "horizon": "current to 6 months", "invalidation": "Gross spreads recover persistently without a capacity reduction.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "WATCH", "summary": "Negative standardized packer spread and changing cash leverage keep capacity rationalization risk active.", "triggers": [ { "label": "CEI spread -5.26/cwt", "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass" }, { "label": "Cash weekly change -7.14/cwt", "metric_id": "blended_live_cash" } ] } ], "decision_use": "CONTEXT", "errors": [], "futures_implications": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESES", "generated_at_ct": "2026-07-12T12:11:36.907016-05:00", "headline": { "confidence": "HIGH", "dominant_stage": "placements_vs_meat_availability", "horizon": "current through 18 months", "state": "TIGHTENING_LATER_WITH_MEAT_CUSHIONS_NOW", "text": "The later fed-cattle pipeline is tightening while heavier carcasses and trade flows cushion beef availability now.", "what_changed": "Initial point-in-time baseline captured; future runs will identify new periods and same-period revisions." }, "history": { "changed_metric_ids": [ "cof_on_feed_head", "cof_placements_head", "cof_marketings_head", "cof_other_disappearance_head", "cof_less_than_600_lbs", "cof_600_699_lbs", "cof_700_799_lbs", "cof_800_899_lbs", "cof_900_999_lbs", "cof_1000_lbs_and_greater", "weekly_fi_slaughter_head", "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs", "weekly_head_count_effect_mil_lbs", "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "beef_exports_ytd_cwe", "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe", "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "southern_livestock_ports", "blended_live_cash", "tuesday_cutout_average_change_pct", "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots", "intended_heifer_replacements" ], "previous_fingerprint": null, "semantic_changed": true, "vintage_count": 1, "vintage_recorded": true }, "live_trade_status": "DISABLED", "max_points": 0, "mode": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "module": "ALPHA_STRUCTURAL_RADAR_V1", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "revision_ledger": [ { "detail": "First frozen observation for this metric.", "metric_id": "cof_on_feed_head", "revision_status": "NEW_BASELINE", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "First frozen observation for this metric.", "metric_id": "cof_placements_head", "revision_status": "NEW_BASELINE", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "First frozen observation for this metric.", "metric_id": "cof_marketings_head", "revision_status": "NEW_BASELINE", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "First frozen observation for this metric.", "metric_id": "cof_other_disappearance_head", "revision_status": "NEW_BASELINE", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "First frozen observation for this metric.", "metric_id": "cof_less_than_600_lbs", "revision_status": "NEW_BASELINE", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "First frozen observation for this metric.", "metric_id": "cof_600_699_lbs", "revision_status": "NEW_BASELINE", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "First frozen observation for this metric.", "metric_id": "cof_700_799_lbs", "revision_status": "NEW_BASELINE", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "First frozen observation for this metric.", "metric_id": "cof_800_899_lbs", "revision_status": "NEW_BASELINE", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "First frozen observation for this metric.", "metric_id": "cof_900_999_lbs", "revision_status": "NEW_BASELINE", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "First frozen observation for this metric.", "metric_id": "cof_1000_lbs_and_greater", "revision_status": "NEW_BASELINE", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "First frozen observation for this metric.", "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head", "revision_status": "NEW_BASELINE", "vintage_date": "2026-07-03" }, { "detail": "First frozen observation for this metric.", "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "revision_status": "NEW_BASELINE", "vintage_date": "2026-07-03" }, { "detail": "First frozen observation for this metric.", "metric_id": "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "NEW_BASELINE", "vintage_date": "2026-07-03" }, { "detail": "First frozen observation for this metric.", "metric_id": "weekly_head_count_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "NEW_BASELINE", "vintage_date": "2026-07-03" }, { "detail": "First frozen observation for this metric.", "metric_id": "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "NEW_BASELINE", "vintage_date": "2026-07-03" }, { "detail": "First frozen observation for this metric.", "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "NEW_BASELINE", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "First frozen observation for this metric.", "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "NEW_BASELINE", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "First frozen observation for this metric.", "metric_id": "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "NEW_BASELINE", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "First frozen observation for this metric.", "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "revision_status": "NEW_BASELINE", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "First frozen observation for this metric.", "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports", "revision_status": "NEW_BASELINE", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "First frozen observation for this metric.", "metric_id": "blended_live_cash", "revision_status": "NEW_BASELINE", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "First frozen observation for this metric.", "metric_id": "tuesday_cutout_average_change_pct", "revision_status": "NEW_BASELINE", "vintage_date": "2026-07-07" }, { "detail": "First frozen observation for this metric.", "metric_id": "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots", "revision_status": "NEW_BASELINE", "vintage_date": "2026-04-01" }, { "detail": "First frozen observation for this metric.", "metric_id": "intended_heifer_replacements", "revision_status": "NEW_BASELINE", "vintage_date": "2026-01-01" } ], "schema_version": "1.0.0", "semantic_fingerprint": "14b77a5f1d63d8435afa4f0553a00972f4f665ec2d1579a1fb0962cc6fea1bcd", "separation_contract": { "auto_promotion_path": false, "calls_decision_components": false, "official_decision_effect": "NONE", "radar_write_root": "/opt/alpha_structural_radar", "reads_decision_outputs": false, "source_root_read_only": "/opt/alpha_current", "wow_command_effect": "NONE", "write_allowlist": [ "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs/structural_radar_status.json", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs/structural_radar_history.json", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/data/structural_radar/vintages.jsonl", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/state/structural_radar.lock" ], "writes_decision_outputs": false }, "source_ledger": [ { "error": null, "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 23, "stale_days": 40, "warn_days": 32 }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-06-18", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "c0a0124ede59df305ad669eb0827f9871e2f73830769bfdff31fc1510fabf231", "source_id": "USDA_NASS_COF", "source_module": "cattle_on_feed", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/cattle_on_feed_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "state": "UNKNOWN" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-05", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "c0c1dc84a5d51d0534190bbfb77ebd724e05157b160edf6188e1fdaf99419b4b", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_TRADE", "source_module": "import_exports", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/import_exports_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "business_release_lag": 0, "calendar_age_days": 2, "expected_report_date": "2026-07-10", "holiday_calendar_note": "Weekday-aware; USDA holiday exceptions may produce WATCH until the next release.", "reason": "Latest expected weekday USDA CEI report is present.", "release_cutoff_ct": "15:45", "report_date": "2026-07-10", "state": "PASS", "status": "PASS", "weekend_aware": true }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-10 after 15:30 CT", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "bfdf3450617b3f338741ec01732cd3c68162bf20932f833f2559264e012498b4", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_CEI", "source_module": "ALPHA_PACKER_ECONOMICS_V1", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/packer_economics_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "state": "UNKNOWN" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-10", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "32aa4dfed1e79a990b59f5236f51ad175d128f9fc2d07875bb801675379b7d11", "source_id": "USDA_APHIS", "source_module": "animal_health", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/animal_health_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "pass_max_days": 2, "watch_max_days": 5 }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-10 daily", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "a5dcc2a14c92313cd716fb1e00647c8ad6fe40954378827aa12db6e089c9ceb3", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_CASH", "source_module": "cash_cattle", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/cash_cattle_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "state": "UNKNOWN" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-07", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "c5bcdbe0f506542c06ebbc7e562c080bb298453e7afe5363f585d5177b6f59c2", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_BOXED_TUESDAY", "source_module": "boxed_beef_tuesday_history", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/boxed_beef_tuesday_history.json", "upstream_status": null, "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-12T04:03:59", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-03", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "e4eb25f3a94ee65ca44ea42fd7e3b2f7a3aabb215d793954637f7bab3b6ac780", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT", "source_module": "weekly_kill_weights", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/weekly_kill_weights.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "cadence": "Quarterly USDA ERS feeder supply", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-04-01", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "32d71256ffb42497325ea439db5ed6a00752be99019c9ab73562950ad87f581b", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_FEEDER_SUPPLY", "source_module": "ers_feeder_supply", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/ers_livestock_domestic_data/livestock-data-machine-readable-files/FeederCattleSuppliesOutsideFeedlots.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "DERIVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "cadence": "Annual USDA ERS herd replacement", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-01-01", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "281e3d55e23156459116f1b342105d36eb78c6d3295597ee52f60c846528960d", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_HERD_REPLACEMENT", "source_module": "ers_heifer_replacements", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/ers_livestock_domestic_data/livestock-data-machine-readable-files/heifersenteringherd.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" } ], "status": "PASS", "theses": [ { "active_alert_ids": [ "later_fed_pipeline_tightening", "weight_offsets_head_decline", "trade_cushions_domestic_availability", "processing_margin_pressure" ], "confirmation": "Later marketings and slaughter tighten after placement cohorts roll forward while meat cushions fade.", "contradictions": [ "cof_on_feed_head", "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs" ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "cof_placements_head", "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "beef_exports_ytd_cwe" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "current through 18 months", "invalidation": "Placements recover or meat availability remains ample enough to prevent the expected tightening.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "PRIMARY_WORKING_HYPOTHESIS", "state": "TIGHTENING_LATER_WITH_MEAT_CUSHIONS_NOW", "thesis_id": "later_head_tightness_near_meat_cushion", "title": "Later fed-cattle tightness, buffered near-term beef availability" }, { "confirmation": "Weights, imports, dairy-beef supply, or weak exports continue replacing domestic fed-cattle tonnage.", "contradictions": [ "cof_placements_head", "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots" ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "current through 12 months", "invalidation": "Weights normalize and trade cushions reverse before placements recover.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "COMPETING_HYPOTHESIS", "thesis_id": "meat_availability_outlasts_head_shortage", "title": "Beef availability stays adequate longer than cattle head counts imply" }, { "confirmation": "Verified capacity exits or sustained shift reductions tighten the hook-to-cattle balance.", "contradictions": [ "No verified plant closure is inferred from margin data alone." ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "cof_marketings_head", "weekly_fi_slaughter_head" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "3-24 months", "invalidation": "Margins recover and observed capacity remains stable.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "COMPETING_HYPOTHESIS", "thesis_id": "capacity_rationalization_changes_leverage", "title": "Processing-capacity rationalization changes packer and feedyard leverage" } ], "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "validation": { "all_units_typed": true, "decision_effect": "NONE", "failed_reconciliations": [], "futures_pricing_model_active": false, "maximum_execution_points": 0, "missing_core_metrics": [], "missing_inputs": [], "numeric_forecast_policy": "No forward numeric value is emitted until an independently validated model supplies it.", "point_in_time_only": true, "promotion_gate_passed": false, "semantic_vintages": true, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "warnings": [] }, { "balance_sheet": { "as_of": "2026-07-10", "periods": [ { "period": "Current feedlot inventory", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current fed-cattle inventory.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 23, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Cattle on feed", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_on_feed_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "feedlot_inventory", "unit": "head", "value": 11682000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": 2.0 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Incoming placement pipeline", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Incoming fed-cattle pipeline.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 23, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Monthly placements", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_placements_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "incoming_pipeline", "unit": "head", "value": 1704000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -10.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 23, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements under 600 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_less_than_600_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 320000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 23, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 600-699 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_600_699_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 240000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 23, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 700-799 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_700_799_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 400000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 23, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 800-899 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_800_899_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 444000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 23, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 900-999 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_900_999_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 225000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 23, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 1,000+ lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_1000_lbs_and_greater", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 75000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "USDA ERS-derived feeder-cattle reservoir outside feedlots; lower inventory can constrain future placements.", "freshness": { "cadence": "Quarterly USDA ERS feeder supply", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Feeder cattle outside feedlots", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_FEEDER_SUPPLY" ], "stage": "feeder_supply", "unit": "thousand_head", "value": 18776.97, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-04-01", "yoy_pct": 2.2631 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Fed-cattle outflow and meat production", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Fed-cattle outflow toward slaughter.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 23, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Monthly marketings", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_marketings_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "fed_outflow", "unit": "head", "value": 1551000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -12.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Non-marketing feedlot disappearance.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 23, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Other disappearance", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_other_disappearance_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "fed_outflow", "unit": "head", "value": 55000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -11.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Observed weekly cattle head throughput.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-12T04:03:59", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Weekly federally inspected slaughter", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "slaughter", "unit": "head", "value": 458000.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-03", "yoy_pct": -3.3755 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Pounds produced per slaughtered animal.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-12T04:03:59", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Average dressed weight", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "yield", "unit": "lb_per_head", "value": 891.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-03", "yoy_pct": 2.8868 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Observed weekly beef output combines head throughput and carcass yield.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-12T04:03:59", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Weekly beef production", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "meat_output", "unit": "million_lb", "value": 407.2, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-03", "yoy_pct": -0.5617 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Counterfactual pounds effect holding year-ago dressed weight constant.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-12T04:03:59", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Head-count contribution to weekly production change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_head_count_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "production_bridge", "unit": "million_lb", "value": -13.856, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-03", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Incremental pounds attributable to the dressed-weight change at current slaughter.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-12T04:03:59", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Dressed-weight contribution to weekly production change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "production_bridge", "unit": "million_lb", "value": 11.45, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-03", "yoy_pct": null } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Trade and domestic availability", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Imported beef adds to domestic carcass-weight-equivalent availability.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date beef imports", "metadata": { "ytd_comparable": true, "ytd_through_month": 5 }, "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 2754566570.58, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": 9.9 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Exported beef removes product from domestic availability while reflecting foreign demand.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date beef exports", "metadata": { "ytd_comparable": true, "ytd_through_month": 5 }, "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 978518541.27, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": -17.2 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Imports less exports; this is a product-availability measure, not a fed-cattle-equivalent count.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date net beef imports", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 1776048029.31, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": -1.7187, "economic_read": "Weekly wholesale movement; descriptive context only because its futures validation gate has not passed.", "freshness": { "state": "UNKNOWN" }, "label": "Tuesday Choice/Select average weekly change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "tuesday_cutout_average_change_pct", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_BOXED_TUESDAY" ], "stage": "wholesale_demand", "unit": "percent", "value": -1.7187, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-07", "yoy_pct": null } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Capacity, cash, herd, and policy context", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Standardized box-minus-live operating-spread proxy; not company net income and not a futures timing signal.", "freshness": { "business_release_lag": 0, "calendar_age_days": 2, "expected_report_date": "2026-07-10", "holiday_calendar_note": "Weekday-aware; USDA holiday exceptions may produce WATCH until the next release.", "reason": "Latest expected weekday USDA CEI report is present.", "release_cutoff_ct": "15:45", "report_date": "2026-07-10", "state": "PASS", "status": "PASS", "weekend_aware": true }, "label": "USDA CEI gross packer spread", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_CEI" ], "stage": "processing_economics", "unit": "usd_per_cwt_carcass", "value": -5.2648, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current operating status constrains or restores feeder-cattle inflow; duration and price impact are not assumed.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Southern livestock port status", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_APHIS" ], "stage": "biological_policy", "unit": "status", "value": "CLOSED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current cash transmission and feedyard/packer leverage context.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "pass_max_days": 2, "state": "PASS", "watch_max_days": 5 }, "label": "Blended live cash cattle", "metadata": { "change_vs_last_week_usd_per_cwt": -7.14 }, "metric_id": "blended_live_cash", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_CASH" ], "stage": "cash_transmission", "unit": "usd_per_cwt_live", "value": 247.99, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Replacement intentions inform herd rebuilding capacity; they do not guarantee retained females or calf-crop growth.", "freshness": { "cadence": "Annual USDA ERS herd replacement", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Intended heifer replacements", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "intended_heifer_replacements", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_HERD_REPLACEMENT" ], "stage": "breeding_herd", "unit": "thousand_head", "value": 8618.8, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-01-01", "yoy_pct": 0.361 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" } ], "reconciliations": [ { "actual": 1704000.0, "check_id": "cof_placement_buckets", "expected": 1704000.0, "name": "Placement weight buckets sum to placements", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 1000.0, "unit": "head" }, { "actual": 11682000.0, "check_id": "cof_head_flow", "expected": 11682000.0, "name": "Opening inventory plus placements less outflows equals closing inventory", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 1000.0, "unit": "head" }, { "actual": 407.2, "check_id": "weekly_production_bridge", "expected": 407.094, "name": "Year-ago production plus head effect plus weight effect reconciles to current production", "passed": true, "residual": 0.106, "tolerance": 2.036, "unit": "million_lb" }, { "actual": 1776048029.31, "check_id": "net_trade_identity", "expected": 1776048029.31, "name": "Imports less exports equals net imports", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 0.01, "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent" } ], "status": "RECONCILED", "summary": { "beef_supply_change_pct": -0.5617, "dressed_weight_yoy_pct": 2.8868, "exports_ytd_change_pct": -17.2, "imports_ytd_change_pct": 9.9, "observation_count": 24, "reconciliation_count": 4, "reconciliation_pass_count": 4, "slaughter_yoy_pct": -3.3755, "source_count": 9, "source_ledger_row_count": 9, "status": "RECONCILED", "weight_offset_of_head_decline_pct": 82.64 }, "unit_policy": "No cattle-head-to-beef-pound conversion is made without an exposed observed weight or typed derivation." }, "change_alerts": [ { "alert_id": "later_fed_pipeline_tightening", "counter_evidence": "Current cattle on feed are +2.0% YoY.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "TIGHTENING_LATER", "horizon": "3-18 months", "invalidation": "Placements and feeder availability normalize, or the livestock-border constraint is formally removed.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "WATCH", "summary": "The later fed-cattle pipeline is tightening, but this is not a futures signal.", "triggers": [ { "label": "Placements -10.0% YoY", "metric_id": "cof_placements_head" }, { "label": "Southern livestock ports closed", "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports" } ] }, { "alert_id": "weight_offsets_head_decline", "counter_evidence": "Reported weekly beef production remains -0.6% YoY.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "MEAT_CUSHION", "horizon": "current to 3 months", "invalidation": "Dressed weights stop offsetting lower head throughput.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "ACTIVE", "summary": "Heavier carcasses are replacing part of the beef tonnage lost to lower slaughter.", "triggers": [ { "label": "Slaughter -3.4% YoY", "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head" }, { "label": "Dressed weight +2.9% YoY", "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs" } ] }, { "alert_id": "trade_cushions_domestic_availability", "counter_evidence": "Product mix and imported lean are not fully interchangeable with Choice fed-beef cuts.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "DOMESTIC_AVAILABILITY_CUSHION", "horizon": "current to 6 months", "invalidation": "Imports reverse lower and exports recover enough to remove the net availability cushion.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "ACTIVE", "summary": "Trade flows are cushioning domestic beef availability despite tighter cattle head counts.", "triggers": [ { "label": "YTD imports +9.9%", "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe" }, { "label": "YTD exports -17.2%", "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe" } ] }, { "alert_id": "processing_margin_pressure", "counter_evidence": "The CEI proxy is not company net income and plant-level economics vary.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "CAPACITY_RATIONALIZATION_RISK", "horizon": "current to 6 months", "invalidation": "Gross spreads recover persistently without a capacity reduction.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "WATCH", "summary": "Negative standardized packer spread and changing cash leverage keep capacity rationalization risk active.", "triggers": [ { "label": "CEI spread -5.26/cwt", "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass" }, { "label": "Cash weekly change -7.14/cwt", "metric_id": "blended_live_cash" } ] } ], "composer_contract": { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "composer_version": "alpha.structural_radar.composer.v2.0.0", "decision_effect": "NONE", "max_points": 0, "mode": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "conditional_contract_estimates": { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "contract_estimates": [ { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 245.4, 250.825 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 248.425, "contract_role": "near", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-06-19T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d1", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": 0.374873, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-22" }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 246.75, "predicted_response_pct": 0.676151, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-08", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -0.548147, 1.653802 ], "symbol": "LEQ6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 242.6, 254.025 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 248.65, "contract_role": "near", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-06-25T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d5", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": -0.273556, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-26" }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 246.75, "predicted_response_pct": 0.765928, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-08", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.683544, 2.951848 ], "symbol": "LEQ6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 240.2, 264.075 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 249.55, "contract_role": "near", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-07-16T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d20", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { 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"prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-12", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.450258, 2.941915 ], "symbol": "LEZ6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 234.8, 254.525 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 241.675, "contract_role": "deferred", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-07-16T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d20", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "status": "OPEN_OR_NOT_YET_OBSERVABLE", "target_date": null }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 239.125, "predicted_response_pct": 1.06329, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-12", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.805714, 6.442563 ], "symbol": "LEZ6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 232.9, 258.5 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 243.8, "contract_role": "deferred", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-08-13T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d40", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "status": "OPEN_OR_NOT_YET_OBSERVABLE", "target_date": null }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 239.125, "predicted_response_pct": 1.958683, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-12", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -2.607012, 8.100815 ], "symbol": "LEZ6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" } ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "definition": "Conditional fixed-contract COF report-response estimates, never intrinsic fair value or trade instructions.", "max_points": 0, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "schema_version": "alpha.conditional_contract_estimates.v1", "status": "RESEARCH_ONLY", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "decision_use": "CONTEXT", "errors": [], "extension_fields": [ "composer_contract", "conditional_contract_estimates", "fair_values", "forecast_book", "forecast_registry", "forecast_scorecard", "frozen_forecasts", "model_card", "structural_futures_v2", "system_quality_audit" ], "fair_values": [ { "as_of_price": 246.75, "contract": "LEQ6", "decision_effect": "NONE", "edge_pct": 0.676151, 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"forecasts": [], "frozen": true, "immutable": true, "matured_data_pending_count": 0, "max_points": 0, "model_card": { "baseline": "Expanding historical mean inside V2 walk-forward diagnostics; zero-change baseline in the immutable forward registry.", "calibration_policy": "No calibrated claim until at least 36 independent genuinely forward report releases and at least 10 unique releases per claimed horizon; correlated role-by-horizon cells and same-report revisions do not count as independent releases. 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"training_cutoff": "Strictly before each prediction release; every included label must also have completed before that release.", "uncertainty": "Residual 10th/90th-percentile response interval where enough walk-forward residuals exist.", "validation_method": "Expanding-window point-in-time walk-forward", "validation_protocol": "Expanding-window, point-in-time walk-forward evaluation against an expanding-mean diagnostic baseline." }, "module": "ALPHA_STRUCTURAL_RADAR_V1", "previous_vintage_record_hash": "LEGACY_SEMANTIC:14b77a5f1d63d8435afa4f0553a00972f4f665ec2d1579a1fb0962cc6fea1bcd", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "revision_ledger": [ { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_on_feed_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_placements_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_marketings_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_other_disappearance_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_less_than_600_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_600_699_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_700_799_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_800_899_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_900_999_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_1000_lbs_and_greater", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-03" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-03" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-03" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_head_count_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-03" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-03" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "blended_live_cash", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "tuesday_cutout_average_change_pct", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-07" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-04-01" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "intended_heifer_replacements", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-01-01" } ], "schema_version": "1.0.0", "semantic_fingerprint": "4b26bdf0826fcc3bc7443a69be8873f32e309f28ec14ecc8d00d3d61145a9a7c", "separation_contract": { "auto_promotion_path": false, "calls_decision_components": false, "official_decision_effect": "NONE", "radar_write_root": "/opt/alpha_structural_radar", "reads_decision_outputs": false, "source_root_read_only": "/opt/alpha_current", "wow_command_effect": "NONE", "write_allowlist": [ "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs/structural_radar_status.json", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs/structural_radar_history.json", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/data/structural_radar/vintages.jsonl", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/state/structural_radar.lock" ], "writes_decision_outputs": false }, "source_ledger": [ { "error": null, "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 23, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-06-18", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "c0a0124ede59df305ad669eb0827f9871e2f73830769bfdff31fc1510fabf231", "source_id": "USDA_NASS_COF", "source_module": "cattle_on_feed", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/cattle_on_feed_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-05", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "c0c1dc84a5d51d0534190bbfb77ebd724e05157b160edf6188e1fdaf99419b4b", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_TRADE", "source_module": "import_exports", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/import_exports_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "business_release_lag": 0, "calendar_age_days": 2, "expected_report_date": "2026-07-10", "holiday_calendar_note": "Weekday-aware; USDA holiday exceptions may produce WATCH until the next release.", "reason": "Latest expected weekday USDA CEI report is present.", "release_cutoff_ct": "15:45", "report_date": "2026-07-10", "state": "PASS", "status": "PASS", "weekend_aware": true }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-10 after 15:30 CT", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "bfdf3450617b3f338741ec01732cd3c68162bf20932f833f2559264e012498b4", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_CEI", "source_module": "ALPHA_PACKER_ECONOMICS_V1", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/packer_economics_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-10", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "32aa4dfed1e79a990b59f5236f51ad175d128f9fc2d07875bb801675379b7d11", "source_id": "USDA_APHIS", "source_module": "animal_health", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/animal_health_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "pass_max_days": 2, "state": "PASS", "watch_max_days": 5 }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-10 daily", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "a5dcc2a14c92313cd716fb1e00647c8ad6fe40954378827aa12db6e089c9ceb3", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_CASH", "source_module": "cash_cattle", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/cash_cattle_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "state": "UNKNOWN" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-07", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "c5bcdbe0f506542c06ebbc7e562c080bb298453e7afe5363f585d5177b6f59c2", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_BOXED_TUESDAY", "source_module": "boxed_beef_tuesday_history", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/boxed_beef_tuesday_history.json", "upstream_status": null, "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-12T04:03:59", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-03", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "e4eb25f3a94ee65ca44ea42fd7e3b2f7a3aabb215d793954637f7bab3b6ac780", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT", "source_module": "weekly_kill_weights", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/weekly_kill_weights.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "cadence": "Quarterly USDA ERS feeder supply", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-04-01", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "32d71256ffb42497325ea439db5ed6a00752be99019c9ab73562950ad87f581b", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_FEEDER_SUPPLY", "source_module": "ers_feeder_supply", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/ers_livestock_domestic_data/livestock-data-machine-readable-files/FeederCattleSuppliesOutsideFeedlots.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "DERIVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "cadence": "Annual USDA ERS herd replacement", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-01-01", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "281e3d55e23156459116f1b342105d36eb78c6d3295597ee52f60c846528960d", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_HERD_REPLACEMENT", "source_module": "ers_heifer_replacements", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/ers_livestock_domestic_data/livestock-data-machine-readable-files/heifersenteringherd.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" } ], "status": "PASS", "structural_futures_v2": { "cohort_timing_bridge": { "assumptions": { "contract_mapping": "Each possible market-ready day maps to the nearest still-unexpired Feb/Apr/Jun/Aug/Oct/Dec Live Cattle contract midpoint. Expiry uses the last weekday as an approximation and does not encode exchange holidays.", "days_on_feed": { "1000_lbs_and_greater": [ 50, 110 ], "600_699_lbs": [ 170, 230 ], "700_799_lbs": [ 140, 200 ], "800_899_lbs": [ 110, 170 ], "900_999_lbs": [ 80, 140 ], "less_than_600_lbs": [ 190, 250 ] }, "exposure_weighting": "Placement day and days-on-feed are modeled as independent discrete uniform assumptions, then convolved. These are scenario weights, not empirical probabilities.", "interpretation": "Head-equivalent exposure is a timing bridge, not deliverable supply, open interest, fair value, or a price forecast.", "placement_date_uncertainty": "Earliest uses activity-month start; latest uses activity-month end." }, "buckets": [ { "bucket_id": "less_than_600_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 209836.1, "delta_head_equivalent": -9836.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 219672.1, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.655738 }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 110163.9, "delta_head_equivalent": -5163.9, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 115327.9, "symbol": "LEG7", "window_day_share": 0.344262 } ], "current_head": 320000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 250, "minimum": 190 }, "delta_head": -15000, "delta_pct": -4.478, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-11-07", "latest": "2027-02-05" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-11-25", "p50": "2026-12-22", "p90": "2027-01-18", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 335000 }, { "bucket_id": "600_699_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 11549.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -1684.3, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 13233.7, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.048123 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 211189.8, "delta_head_equivalent": -30798.5, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 241988.4, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.879958 }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 17260.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -2517.2, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 19777.9, "symbol": "LEG7", "window_day_share": 0.07192 } ], "current_head": 240000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 230, "minimum": 170 }, "delta_head": -35000, "delta_pct": -12.727, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-10-18", "latest": "2027-01-16" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-11-05", "p50": "2026-12-02", "p90": "2026-12-29", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 275000 }, { "bucket_id": "700_799_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 183606.6, "delta_head_equivalent": -22950.8, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 206557.4, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.459016 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 216393.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -27049.2, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 243442.6, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.540984 } ], "current_head": 400000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 200, "minimum": 140 }, "delta_head": -50000, "delta_pct": -11.111, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-09-18", "latest": "2026-12-17" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-10-06", "p50": "2026-11-02", "p90": "2026-11-29", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 450000 }, { "bucket_id": "800_899_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 21366.5, "delta_head_equivalent": -3464.8, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 24831.3, "symbol": "LEQ6", "window_day_share": 0.048123 }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 382483.3, "delta_head_equivalent": -62024.3, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 444507.7, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.861449 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 40150.2, "delta_head_equivalent": -6510.8, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 46661.0, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.090428 } ], "current_head": 444000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 170, "minimum": 110 }, "delta_head": -72000, "delta_pct": -13.953, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-08-19", "latest": "2026-11-17" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-09-06", "p50": "2026-10-03", "p90": "2026-10-30", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 516000 }, { "bucket_id": "900_999_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 103278.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -2295.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 105573.8, "symbol": "LEQ6", "window_day_share": 0.459016 }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 121721.3, "delta_head_equivalent": -2704.9, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 124426.2, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.540984 } ], "current_head": 225000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 140, "minimum": 80 }, "delta_head": -5000, "delta_pct": -2.174, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-07-20", "latest": "2026-10-18" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-08-07", "p50": "2026-09-03", "p90": "2026-09-30", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 230000 }, { "bucket_id": "1000_lbs_and_greater", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-06", "current_head_equivalent": 2617.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -174.5, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 2792.2, "symbol": "LEM6", "window_day_share": 0.034902 }, { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 65600.2, "delta_head_equivalent": -4373.3, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 69973.6, "symbol": "LEQ6", "window_day_share": 0.874669 }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 6782.1, "delta_head_equivalent": -452.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 7234.3, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.090428 } ], "current_head": 75000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 110, "minimum": 50 }, "delta_head": -5000, "delta_pct": -6.25, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-06-20", "latest": "2026-09-18" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-07-08", "p50": "2026-08-04", "p90": "2026-08-31", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 80000 } ], "comparison": "SAME_ACTIVITY_MONTH_AS_RELEASED_YEAR_OVER_YEAR", "contracts": [ { "contract_month": "2026-06", "current_head_equivalent": 2617.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -174.5, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 2792.2, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEM6" }, { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 190245.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -10133.3, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 200378.6, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEQ6" }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 706142.8, "delta_head_equivalent": -89816.5, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 795959.3, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEV6" }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 677569.5, "delta_head_equivalent": -74194.6, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 751764.1, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEZ6" }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 127424.6, "delta_head_equivalent": -7681.1, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 135105.8, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEG7" } ], "latest_activity_month": "2026-05-01", "latest_release_date": "2026-06-18", "prior_year_activity_month": "2025-05-01", "prior_year_release_date": "2025-06-20", "reconciliations": [ { "actual": 1704000.0, "check_id": "latest_bucket_sum_to_placements", "expected": 1704000.0, "passed": true, "residual_head": 0.0, "tolerance_head": 1000.0 }, { "actual": 1886000.0, "check_id": "prior_bucket_sum_to_placements", "expected": 1886000.0, "passed": true, "residual_head": 0.0, "tolerance_head": 1000.0 }, { "actual": -182000.0, "check_id": "contract_exposure_delta_to_bucket_delta", "expected": -182000.0, "passed": true, "residual_head": 0.0, "tolerance_head": 1.0 } ], "status": "PASS" }, "contract_response_models": { "continuous_or_stitched_prices_used": false, "contract_estimates": [ { "cohort_timing_exposure": { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 190245.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -10133.3, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 200378.6, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEQ6" }, "contract_id": "LE-2026-08", "horizons": [ { "conditional_fair_value": 248.425, 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"e66dad219c983fde988e04a569aa3adc0fc81d5e37247d97f8854df408c32f52" }, "gate_checks": { "beats_zero_return_baseline": true, "directional_accuracy_at_least_52pct": true, "interval_80_coverage_65_to_90pct": false, "mae_skill_at_least_5pct": false, "n_oos_at_least_36": true, "prediction_correlation_at_least_0_10": false }, "horizon": "d40", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "max_training_label_date": "2026-06-15", "min_train_events": 24, "model_version": "cof-fixed-contract-ridge-v2.1.0", "n_train": 75, "pre_report_close": 239.125, "predicted_response_pct": 1.958683, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-12", "prediction_release_date": "2026-06-18", "prediction_symbol": "LEZ6", "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "research_only": true, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -2.607012, 8.100815 ], "role": "deferred", "status": "PASS", "strictly_prior_training": true, "training_max_release_date": "2026-04-17", "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "walk_forward": { "baseline_mae_return_pct": 3.632719, "directional_accuracy": 0.64, "interval_80_coverage": 0.6, "interval_coverage_n": 35, "mae_return_pct": 3.544136, "mae_skill_vs_expanding_mean": 0.024385, "mae_skill_vs_zero_return": 0.107422, "n_oos": 50, "prediction_correlation": -0.02018, "zero_return_baseline_mae_pct": 3.970674 }, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" } ], "multiplicity_policy": "Twelve role-by-horizon candidates are exposed together; no familywise or FDR gate has passed, so operational promotion is prohibited.", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "statistical_gate_pass_count": 0, "target_definition": "Nth actual later RTH last-trade close versus same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close before the after-close COF release; these are not official CME settlements." }, "decision_effect": "NONE", "errors": [], "headline": "Placement cohorts are mapped to contract windows; price estimates remain conditional and research-only.", "live": false, "max_points": 0, "mode": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "module": "ALPHA_STRUCTURAL_FUTURES_V2", "point_in_time_events": { "as_of_cutoff_ct": "2026-07-12T13:31:45.606637-05:00", "consensus_surprise_available": false, "consensus_surprise_used": false, "event_count": 114, "feature_policy": "Only values printed in the as-released row plus activity-month season terms are features.", "latest_event": { "activity_month": "2026-05-01", "availability_rule": "Feature values become available only at the recorded USDA release timestamp.", "event_id": "795942", "observations": [ { "known_at_ct": "2026-06-18T14:00:00-05:00", "observation_id": "on_feed_yoy_delta_pp", "unit": "percentage_point", "value": 2.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED_RELEASE" }, { "known_at_ct": "2026-06-18T14:00:00-05:00", "observation_id": "placements_yoy_delta_pp", "unit": "percentage_point", "value": -10.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED_RELEASE" }, { "known_at_ct": "2026-06-18T14:00:00-05:00", "observation_id": "marketings_yoy_delta_pp", "unit": "percentage_point", "value": -12.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED_RELEASE" }, { "known_at_ct": "2026-06-18T14:00:00-05:00", "observation_id": "season_sin", "unit": "cyclical_component", "value": 0.5, "value_kind": "DERIVED_FROM_ACTIVITY_MONTH" }, { "known_at_ct": "2026-06-18T14:00:00-05:00", "observation_id": "season_cos", "unit": "cyclical_component", "value": -0.866025, "value_kind": "DERIVED_FROM_ACTIVITY_MONTH" } ], "provenance": { "source_sha256": "da477404f359a36b9d2b412f0dfdeaa4f3b05596c898c0655184124228fa9fbf", "source_url": "https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795942/cofd0626.txt" }, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "release_revision_id": "795942@2026-06-18T14:00:00-05:00", "release_timestamp_ct": "2026-06-18T14:00:00-05:00", "release_timestamp_kind": "RECORDED_SOURCE_TIMESTAMP", "research_only": true, "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false } }, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "research_only": true, "schema_version": "alpha.structural_futures.v2", "semantic_fingerprint": "8c9f5b3076382803e3e13013312694507acc20e1cd5c4e173d40371ce0174a76", "source_ledger": [ { "path": "/opt/alpha_current/data/cattle_on_feed/report_events.csv", "read_only": true, "rows": 114, "sha256": "8c9fa84f4a2ce005f1a3e636a6a01f0051000c3b69de93c11e649ab753fa166b", "source_id": "USDA_NASS_COF_AS_RELEASED" }, { "path": "/opt/alpha_current/data/cattle_on_feed/le_fixed_ohlcv_1d.parquet", "read_only": true, "rows": 14235, "sha256": "3d8a5e985d2a3e18f095e5aa09b5b7f5beb7654c4db87b0b91614a005842b9a1", "source_id": "DATABENTO_LE_FIXED_CONTRACT_DAILY" } ], "status": "PASS", "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "validation": { "all_training_labels_completed_before_prediction": true, "cohort_reconciliations_passed": true, "corrections_after_response_anchor_excluded": true, "data_status": { "event_rows": 114, "first_event_date": "2017-01-27", "fixed_contract_rows": 14235, "latest_event_date": "2026-06-18", "latest_event_price_reference_available": true, "price_first_date": "2020-01-02", "price_last_date": "2026-07-10", "response_panel_rows": 231 }, "events_filtered_to_as_of_cutoff": true, "historical_correction_policy": "Recorded same-date revisions are cutoff-aware. Later-date corrections are excluded from the report-response panel so they cannot be paired with an already-observed original-report return path; displaced originals are not guaranteed recoverable for every historical USDA correction.", "historical_original_corrections_complete": false, "latest_event_excluded_from_training": true, "model_gate_is_not_operational_gate": true, "numeric_forecast_policy": "No estimate is emitted with insufficient prior history; no model estimate affects WOW or decisions.", "point_in_time_release_timestamps": true, "price_reference_is_official_settlement": false, "price_reference_timestamp_retained": false, "price_rows_filtered_to_as_of_cutoff": true, "price_rows_unique_by_date_contract": true }, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "system_quality_audit": { "accountability_status": "PARTIAL", "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "critical_gates": { "decision_isolation_gate": true, "immutable_registry_gate": true, "no_operational_promotion_gate": true, "no_predictive_skill_claim_gate": true, "overall_health_gate": true, "point_in_time_gate": true, "reconciliation_gate": true, "runtime_permission_probe_gate": true, "source_alignment_and_price_freshness_gate": true, "wow_isolation_gate": true }, "critical_gates_passed": true, "decision_effect": "NONE", "dimensions": [ { "dimension_id": "SOURCE_PROVENANCE", "earned": 15.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "At least eight unique structural sources have explicit non-stale freshness, observed-at values, and fingerprints", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Every base ledger row is identified, fingerprinted, and read-only", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Both required V2 sources are nonempty, read-only, and SHA-256 fingerprinted", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Base COF and V2 latest releases align, and the fixed-contract panel is current", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Base structural vintages parse strictly, checkpoint tail loss, and chain new semantic records", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 } ], "label": "Source provenance and semantic integrity", "status": "PASS", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "POINT_IN_TIME", "earned": 12.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Events and prices are filtered to the as-of cutoff", "max_points": 4.0, "passed": true, "points": 4.0 }, { "criterion": "Training labels complete before prediction and latest event is excluded", "max_points": 4.0, "passed": true, "points": 4.0 }, { "criterion": "As-released event timestamps are retained", "max_points": 4.0, "passed": true, "points": 4.0 }, { "criterion": "Daily price reference retains a final-bar timestamp", "max_points": 1.5, "passed": false, "points": 0 }, { "criterion": "Historical original/correction pairs are complete", "max_points": 1.5, "passed": false, "points": 0 } ], "label": "Point-in-time and leakage controls", "limitation": "Capped at 12/15: the daily panel lacks a retained final-bar timestamp and historical original/correction completeness is not guaranteed.", "status": "PARTIAL", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "RECONCILIATION", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "All base observations are typed and reconciliations recompute within explicit units/tolerances", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Placement cohort-to-contract reconciliations recompute within head tolerances", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Accounting and reconciliation", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 }, { "dimension_id": "CONTRACT_HORIZONS", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Fixed contracts are used without continuous stitching", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "A unique, fully estimated near/mid/deferred D1/D5/D20/D40 fixed-contract grid is present", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Contract and horizon specificity", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 }, { "dimension_id": "MODEL_GOVERNANCE", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Operational promotion is false", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 }, { "criterion": "Predictive edge remains explicitly unproven", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 }, { "criterion": "Calibration remains explicitly incomplete", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 }, { "criterion": "Pricing authority and execution points are zero", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 } ], "label": "Model governance without promotion leakage", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 }, { "dimension_id": "FORWARD_ACCOUNTABILITY", "earned": 9.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Append-only registry freeze hashes validate", "max_points": 2.0, "passed": true, "points": 2.0 }, { "criterion": "Prior sibling checkpoint detects single-file tail loss", "max_points": 1.0, "passed": true, "points": 1.0 }, { "criterion": "An external protected/WORM ledger anchor exists", "max_points": 1.0, "passed": false, "points": 0 }, { "criterion": "Forecast IDs are deterministic and issuance is deduplicated", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Open and matured-unresolved outcomes remain explicit and unscored", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "At least 36 independent forward report releases and 10 unique releases per claimed horizon are resolved", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": false, "points": 0 } ], "label": "Immutable forward forecast accountability", "limitation": "0 correlated forecast cells across 0 independent report releases are resolved. Same-report roles, horizons, and revisions do not inflate the independent-release threshold. The sibling checkpoint is best-effort and no external WORM anchor exists; accountability is partial and predictive profitability is not graded.", "status": "PARTIAL", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "OPERATIONAL_ISOLATION", "earned": 15.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Base radar has no decision or WOW effect", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Registry writes only below the sibling radar root and the required runtime permission probe passes", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "No live-trade use, auto-promotion, or execution points", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Operational and WOW Command isolation", "status": "PASS", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "TRANSPARENCY", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Complete model card states purpose, target, data, leakage controls, limitations, and governance", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Scorecard names a frozen baseline and baseline-relative primary metric", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Model-card and baseline transparency", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 } ], "eligibility": { "operational_promotion_eligible": false, "predictive_profitability_grade_eligible": false, "status": "ELIGIBLE_SYSTEM_QUALITY_ONLY", "system_quality_grade_eligible": true }, "explicit_exclusions": [ "predictive profitability", "tradable edge", "live execution quality", "risk-adjusted returns" ], "max_points": 0, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "profitability_claim": false, "rubric_id": "ALPHA_SYSTEM_QUALITY_NON_PROFITABILITY_V1", "schema_version": "alpha.system_quality_audit.v1", "scope": "SYSTEM_DESIGN_DATA_INTEGRITY_GOVERNANCE_AND_ACCOUNTABILITY", "score": { "earned": 91.0, "grade": "A-", "maximum": 100.0, "normalized_10": 9.1 }, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "theses": [ { "active_alert_ids": [ "later_fed_pipeline_tightening", "weight_offsets_head_decline", "trade_cushions_domestic_availability", "processing_margin_pressure" ], "confirmation": "Later marketings and slaughter tighten after placement cohorts roll forward while meat cushions fade.", "contradictions": [ "cof_on_feed_head", "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs" ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "cof_placements_head", "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "beef_exports_ytd_cwe" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "current through 18 months", "invalidation": "Placements recover or meat availability remains ample enough to prevent the expected tightening.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "PRIMARY_WORKING_HYPOTHESIS", "state": "TIGHTENING_LATER_WITH_MEAT_CUSHIONS_NOW", "thesis_id": "later_head_tightness_near_meat_cushion", "title": "Later fed-cattle tightness, buffered near-term beef availability" }, { "confirmation": "Weights, imports, dairy-beef supply, or weak exports continue replacing domestic fed-cattle tonnage.", "contradictions": [ "cof_placements_head", "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots" ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "current through 12 months", "invalidation": "Weights normalize and trade cushions reverse before placements recover.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "COMPETING_HYPOTHESIS", "thesis_id": "meat_availability_outlasts_head_shortage", "title": "Beef availability stays adequate longer than cattle head counts imply" }, { "confirmation": "Verified capacity exits or sustained shift reductions tighten the hook-to-cattle balance.", "contradictions": [ "No verified plant closure is inferred from margin data alone." ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "cof_marketings_head", "weekly_fi_slaughter_head" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "3-24 months", "invalidation": "Margins recover and observed capacity remains stable.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "COMPETING_HYPOTHESIS", "thesis_id": "capacity_rationalization_changes_leverage", "title": "Processing-capacity rationalization changes packer and feedyard leverage" } ], "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "validation": { "all_units_typed": true, "decision_effect": "NONE", "failed_reconciliations": [], "futures_pricing_model_active": false, "maximum_execution_points": 0, "missing_core_metrics": [], "missing_inputs": [], "numeric_forecast_policy": "No forward numeric value is emitted until an independently validated model supplies it.", "point_in_time_only": true, "promotion_gate_passed": false, "semantic_vintage_chain_validation": "PASS_WITH_LEGACY_PREFIX", "semantic_vintage_checkpoint_prior_state": "PASS", "semantic_vintage_checkpoint_validation": "PASS", "semantic_vintage_external_anchor_present": false, "semantic_vintage_parse_strict": true, "semantic_vintages": true, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "vintage_record_hash": "778b8ed2e01fbe3cdb0f36433ecf40aeea74bb51b3473364abbe4163463fa60f", "warnings": [] }, { "balance_sheet": { "as_of": "2026-07-10", "periods": [ { "period": "Current feedlot inventory", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current fed-cattle inventory.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 23, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Cattle on feed", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_on_feed_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "feedlot_inventory", "unit": "head", "value": 11682000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": 2.0 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Incoming placement pipeline", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Incoming fed-cattle pipeline.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 23, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Monthly placements", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_placements_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "incoming_pipeline", "unit": "head", "value": 1704000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -10.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 23, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements under 600 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_less_than_600_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 320000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 23, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 600-699 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_600_699_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 240000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 23, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 700-799 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_700_799_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 400000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 23, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 800-899 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_800_899_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 444000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 23, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 900-999 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_900_999_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 225000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 23, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 1,000+ lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_1000_lbs_and_greater", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 75000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "USDA ERS-derived feeder-cattle reservoir outside feedlots; lower inventory can constrain future placements.", "freshness": { "cadence": "Quarterly USDA ERS feeder supply", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Feeder cattle outside feedlots", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_FEEDER_SUPPLY" ], "stage": "feeder_supply", "unit": "thousand_head", "value": 18776.97, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-04-01", "yoy_pct": 2.2631 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Fed-cattle outflow and meat production", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Fed-cattle outflow toward slaughter.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 23, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Monthly marketings", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_marketings_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "fed_outflow", "unit": "head", "value": 1551000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -12.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Non-marketing feedlot disappearance.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 23, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Other disappearance", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_other_disappearance_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "fed_outflow", "unit": "head", "value": 55000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -11.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Observed weekly cattle head throughput.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-12T04:03:59", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Weekly federally inspected slaughter", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "slaughter", "unit": "head", "value": 458000.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-03", "yoy_pct": -3.3755 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Pounds produced per slaughtered animal.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-12T04:03:59", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Average dressed weight", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "yield", "unit": "lb_per_head", "value": 891.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-03", "yoy_pct": 2.8868 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Observed weekly beef output combines head throughput and carcass yield.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-12T04:03:59", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Weekly beef production", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "meat_output", "unit": "million_lb", "value": 407.2, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-03", "yoy_pct": -0.5617 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Counterfactual pounds effect holding year-ago dressed weight constant.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-12T04:03:59", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Head-count contribution to weekly production change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_head_count_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "production_bridge", "unit": "million_lb", "value": -13.856, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-03", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Incremental pounds attributable to the dressed-weight change at current slaughter.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-12T04:03:59", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Dressed-weight contribution to weekly production change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "production_bridge", "unit": "million_lb", "value": 11.45, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-03", "yoy_pct": null } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Trade and domestic availability", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Imported beef adds to domestic carcass-weight-equivalent availability.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date beef imports", "metadata": { "ytd_comparable": true, "ytd_through_month": 5 }, "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 2754566570.58, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": 9.9 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Exported beef removes product from domestic availability while reflecting foreign demand.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date beef exports", "metadata": { "ytd_comparable": true, "ytd_through_month": 5 }, "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 978518541.27, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": -17.2 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Imports less exports; this is a product-availability measure, not a fed-cattle-equivalent count.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date net beef imports", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 1776048029.31, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": -1.7187, "economic_read": "Weekly wholesale movement; descriptive context only because its futures validation gate has not passed.", "freshness": { "state": "UNKNOWN" }, "label": "Tuesday Choice/Select average weekly change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "tuesday_cutout_average_change_pct", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_BOXED_TUESDAY" ], "stage": "wholesale_demand", "unit": "percent", "value": -1.7187, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-07", "yoy_pct": null } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Capacity, cash, herd, and policy context", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Standardized box-minus-live operating-spread proxy; not company net income and not a futures timing signal.", "freshness": { "business_release_lag": 0, "calendar_age_days": 2, "expected_report_date": "2026-07-10", "holiday_calendar_note": "Weekday-aware; USDA holiday exceptions may produce WATCH until the next release.", "reason": "Latest expected weekday USDA CEI report is present.", "release_cutoff_ct": "15:45", "report_date": "2026-07-10", "state": "PASS", "status": "PASS", "weekend_aware": true }, "label": "USDA CEI gross packer spread", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_CEI" ], "stage": "processing_economics", "unit": "usd_per_cwt_carcass", "value": -5.2648, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current operating status constrains or restores feeder-cattle inflow; duration and price impact are not assumed.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Southern livestock port status", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_APHIS" ], "stage": "biological_policy", "unit": "status", "value": "CLOSED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current cash transmission and feedyard/packer leverage context.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "pass_max_days": 2, "state": "PASS", "watch_max_days": 5 }, "label": "Blended live cash cattle", "metadata": { "change_vs_last_week_usd_per_cwt": -7.14 }, "metric_id": "blended_live_cash", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_CASH" ], "stage": "cash_transmission", "unit": "usd_per_cwt_live", "value": 247.99, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Replacement intentions inform herd rebuilding capacity; they do not guarantee retained females or calf-crop growth.", "freshness": { "cadence": "Annual USDA ERS herd replacement", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Intended heifer replacements", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "intended_heifer_replacements", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_HERD_REPLACEMENT" ], "stage": "breeding_herd", "unit": "thousand_head", "value": 8618.8, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-01-01", "yoy_pct": 0.361 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" } ], "reconciliations": [ { "actual": 1704000.0, "check_id": "cof_placement_buckets", "expected": 1704000.0, "name": "Placement weight buckets sum to placements", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 1000.0, "unit": "head" }, { "actual": 11682000.0, "check_id": "cof_head_flow", "expected": 11682000.0, "name": "Opening inventory plus placements less outflows equals closing inventory", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 1000.0, "unit": "head" }, { "actual": 407.2, "check_id": "weekly_production_bridge", "expected": 407.094, "name": "Year-ago production plus head effect plus weight effect reconciles to current production", "passed": true, "residual": 0.106, "tolerance": 2.036, "unit": "million_lb" }, { "actual": 1776048029.31, "check_id": "net_trade_identity", "expected": 1776048029.31, "name": "Imports less exports equals net imports", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 0.01, "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent" } ], "status": "RECONCILED", "summary": { "beef_supply_change_pct": -0.5617, "dressed_weight_yoy_pct": 2.8868, "exports_ytd_change_pct": -17.2, "imports_ytd_change_pct": 9.9, "observation_count": 24, "reconciliation_count": 4, "reconciliation_pass_count": 4, "slaughter_yoy_pct": -3.3755, "source_count": 9, "source_ledger_row_count": 9, "status": "RECONCILED", "weight_offset_of_head_decline_pct": 82.64 }, "unit_policy": "No cattle-head-to-beef-pound conversion is made without an exposed observed weight or typed derivation." }, "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "change_alerts": [ { "alert_id": "later_fed_pipeline_tightening", "counter_evidence": "Current cattle on feed are +2.0% YoY.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "TIGHTENING_LATER", "horizon": "3-18 months", "invalidation": "Placements and feeder availability normalize, or the livestock-border constraint is formally removed.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "WATCH", "summary": "The later fed-cattle pipeline is tightening, but this is not a futures signal.", "triggers": [ { "label": "Placements -10.0% YoY", "metric_id": "cof_placements_head" }, { "label": "Southern livestock ports closed", "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports" } ] }, { "alert_id": "weight_offsets_head_decline", "counter_evidence": "Reported weekly beef production remains -0.6% YoY.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "MEAT_CUSHION", "horizon": "current to 3 months", "invalidation": "Dressed weights stop offsetting lower head throughput.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "ACTIVE", "summary": "Heavier carcasses are replacing part of the beef tonnage lost to lower slaughter.", "triggers": [ { "label": "Slaughter -3.4% YoY", "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head" }, { "label": "Dressed weight +2.9% YoY", "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs" } ] }, { "alert_id": "trade_cushions_domestic_availability", "counter_evidence": "Product mix and imported lean are not fully interchangeable with Choice fed-beef cuts.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "DOMESTIC_AVAILABILITY_CUSHION", "horizon": "current to 6 months", "invalidation": "Imports reverse lower and exports recover enough to remove the net availability cushion.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "ACTIVE", "summary": "Trade flows are cushioning domestic beef availability despite tighter cattle head counts.", "triggers": [ { "label": "YTD imports +9.9%", "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe" }, { "label": "YTD exports -17.2%", "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe" } ] }, { "alert_id": "processing_margin_pressure", "counter_evidence": "The CEI proxy is not company net income and plant-level economics vary.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "CAPACITY_RATIONALIZATION_RISK", "horizon": "current to 6 months", "invalidation": "Gross spreads recover persistently without a capacity reduction.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "WATCH", "summary": "Negative standardized packer spread and changing cash leverage keep capacity rationalization risk active.", "triggers": [ { "label": "CEI spread -5.26/cwt", "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass" }, { "label": "Cash weekly change -7.14/cwt", "metric_id": "blended_live_cash" } ] } ], "composer_contract": { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "composer_version": "alpha.structural_radar.composer.v2.0.0", "decision_effect": "NONE", "max_points": 0, "mode": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "conditional_contract_estimates": { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "contract_estimates": [ { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 245.4, 250.825 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 248.425, "contract_role": "near", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-06-19T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d1", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": 0.374873, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-22" }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, 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246.75, "predicted_response_pct": 0.765928, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-08", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.683544, 2.951848 ], "symbol": "LEQ6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 240.2, 264.075 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 249.55, "contract_role": "near", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-07-16T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d20", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "status": "OPEN_OR_NOT_YET_OBSERVABLE", "target_date": null }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 246.75, "predicted_response_pct": 1.131717, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-08", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -2.650467, 7.024054 ], "symbol": "LEQ6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 242.55, 269.175 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 251.75, "contract_role": "near", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-08-13T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d40", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "status": "OPEN_OR_NOT_YET_OBSERVABLE", "target_date": null }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 246.75, "predicted_response_pct": 2.027405, "prediction_contract_id": 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"calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "directional_accuracy": null, "forward_resolved_count": 0, "forward_resolved_forecast_count": 0, "forward_test_status": "OPEN_BOOK_NO_FORWARD_RESOLUTIONS", "interval_coverage": null, "mae": null, "mae_skill_vs_baseline": null, "matured_data_pending_count": 0, "mean_bias": null, "open_forecast_count": 0, "performance_status": "UNPROVEN", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "profitability_claim": false, "resolved_forecast_count": 0, "rmse": null, "schema_version": "alpha.structural_forecast_scorecard.v1", "skill_vs_baseline": null, "status": "NO_RESOLVED_FORWARD_FORECASTS", "unique_resolved_release_revision_count": 0, "unique_resolved_report_release_count": 0, "validation_mode": "IMMUTABLE_GENUINELY_FORWARD_OOS" }, "frozen_forecasts": [], "futures_implications": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESES", "generated_at_ct": "2026-07-12T13:33:17.773709-05:00", "headline": { "confidence": "HIGH", "dominant_stage": "placements_vs_meat_availability", "horizon": "current through 18 months", "state": "TIGHTENING_LATER_WITH_MEAT_CUSHIONS_NOW", "text": "The later fed-cattle pipeline is tightening while heavier carcasses and trade flows cushion beef availability now.", "what_changed": "No semantic structural change since the prior frozen vintage." }, "history": { "changed_metric_ids": [], "previous_fingerprint": "4b26bdf0826fcc3bc7443a69be8873f32e309f28ec14ecc8d00d3d61145a9a7c", "semantic_changed": true, "vintage_count": 3, "vintage_recorded": true }, "live_trade_status": "DISABLED", "max_points": 0, "mode": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "model_card": { "baseline": "Expanding historical mean inside V2 walk-forward diagnostics; zero-change baseline in the immutable forward registry.", "calibration_policy": "No calibrated claim until at least 36 independent genuinely forward report releases and at least 10 unique releases per claimed horizon; correlated role-by-horizon cells and same-report revisions do not count as independent releases. Current status remains NOT_CALIBRATED.", "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "data_sources": [ "USDA NASS COF as-released event rows", "Databento Live Cattle fixed-contract daily bars" ], "evaluation_metrics": [ "MAE", "baseline-relative MAE skill", "directional accuracy", "prediction correlation", "80% interval coverage" ], "fairness_scope": "Not applicable to people; monitor contract-month and market-regime coverage instead.", "feature_families": [ "USDA COF year-over-year release values", "activity-month seasonality" ], "features": [ "on_feed_yoy_delta_pp", "placements_yoy_delta_pp", "marketings_yoy_delta_pp", "activity_month_season_sin", "activity_month_season_cos" ], "governance": { "auto_promotion_path": false, "decision_effect": "NONE", "max_points": 0, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "horizon_definitions": { "d1": "1 actual later fixed-contract session(s)", "d20": "20 actual later fixed-contract session(s)", "d40": "40 actual later fixed-contract session(s)", "d5": "5 actual later fixed-contract session(s)" }, "horizons": [ "d1", "d5", "d20", "d40" ], "intended_uses": [ "research", "hypothesis tracking", "forward accountability", "contract-window comparison" ], "known_limitations": [ "No contemporaneous consensus-surprise feature", "Conditional report response is not all-factor intrinsic value", "Weekday target scheduling is conservative and is reconciled to actual fixed-contract sessions at resolution", "No demonstrated forward predictive edge yet", "No transaction costs, slippage, liquidity, or executable strategy economics" ], "leakage_controls": [ "As-released report values only", "Latest event excluded from training", "Training labels must complete before prediction", "Forward registry rejects horizons already mature at first issuance" ], "lifecycle_status": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "model_name": "Structural Futures V2 fixed-contract COF response", "model_type": "Expanding-window ridge regression with fixed-contract event responses", "model_version": "cof-fixed-contract-ridge-v2.1.0", "monitoring": { "baseline_relative_scorecard": true, "calibration_minimum_unique_report_releases": 36, "immutable_forecast_book": true, "open_outcomes_retained": true }, "owner": "Alpha Structural Radar research boundary", "prediction_population": "Highest-volume unexpired Live Cattle fixed contract and the next two listed expiries on the release date.", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "prohibited_uses": [ "WOW Command input", "official decision input", "live trading", "position sizing", "intrinsic fair-value claim" ], "promotion_criteria": [ "At least 36 independent genuinely forward report releases", "At least 10 unique report releases per claimed horizon", "Positive baseline-relative MAE skill with stable directional evidence", "Independent governance review; never automatic promotion" ], "promotion_gate_passed": false, "purpose": "Estimate a conditional fixed-contract price response after a Cattle on Feed release.", "reproducibility": "Each issuance freezes the implementation SHA-256, fitted ridge coefficients/normalization/penalty, exact training-row identity hash, event features, source hashes, and model-spec hash.", "schema_version": "alpha.model_card.structural_futures_v2.v1", "status": "RESEARCH_ONLY_UNVALIDATED", "target": "Nth actual later RTH last-trade close versus same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close before the after-close COF release; these are not official CME settlements.", "target_definition": "Nth actual later RTH last-trade close versus same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close before the after-close COF release; these are not official CME settlements.", "training": { "continuous_or_stitched_prices_used": false, "fixed_contract_only": true, "method": "Ridge regression fit only to fully labeled events available before each prediction timestamp.", "minimum_train_events": 24, "walk_forward_evaluation": true }, "training_cutoff": "Strictly before each prediction release; every included label must also have completed before that release.", "uncertainty": "Residual 10th/90th-percentile response interval where enough walk-forward residuals exist.", "validation_method": "Expanding-window point-in-time walk-forward", "validation_protocol": "Expanding-window, point-in-time walk-forward evaluation against an expanding-mean diagnostic baseline." }, "module": "ALPHA_STRUCTURAL_RADAR_V1", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "previous_vintage_record_hash": "778b8ed2e01fbe3cdb0f36433ecf40aeea74bb51b3473364abbe4163463fa60f", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "revision_ledger": [ { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_on_feed_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_placements_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_marketings_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_other_disappearance_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_less_than_600_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_600_699_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_700_799_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_800_899_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_900_999_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_1000_lbs_and_greater", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-03" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-03" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-03" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_head_count_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-03" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-03" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "blended_live_cash", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "tuesday_cutout_average_change_pct", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-07" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-04-01" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "intended_heifer_replacements", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-01-01" } ], "schema_version": "1.0.0", "semantic_fingerprint": "6737e24c71a7cf42952b4ce7069759189ab855322ed3d6c4b7ac002b82903b45", "separation_contract": { "auto_promotion_path": false, "calls_decision_components": false, "official_decision_effect": "NONE", "radar_write_root": "/opt/alpha_structural_radar", "reads_decision_outputs": false, "source_root_read_only": "/opt/alpha_current", "wow_command_effect": "NONE", "write_allowlist": [ "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs/structural_radar_status.json", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs/structural_radar_history.json", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/data/structural_radar/vintages.jsonl", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/state/structural_radar.lock" ], "writes_decision_outputs": false }, "source_ledger": [ { "error": null, "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 23, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-06-18", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "c0a0124ede59df305ad669eb0827f9871e2f73830769bfdff31fc1510fabf231", "source_id": "USDA_NASS_COF", "source_module": "cattle_on_feed", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/cattle_on_feed_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-05", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "c0c1dc84a5d51d0534190bbfb77ebd724e05157b160edf6188e1fdaf99419b4b", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_TRADE", "source_module": "import_exports", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/import_exports_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "business_release_lag": 0, "calendar_age_days": 2, "expected_report_date": "2026-07-10", "holiday_calendar_note": "Weekday-aware; USDA holiday exceptions may produce WATCH until the next release.", "reason": "Latest expected weekday USDA CEI report is present.", "release_cutoff_ct": "15:45", "report_date": "2026-07-10", "state": "PASS", "status": "PASS", "weekend_aware": true }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-10 after 15:30 CT", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "bfdf3450617b3f338741ec01732cd3c68162bf20932f833f2559264e012498b4", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_CEI", "source_module": "ALPHA_PACKER_ECONOMICS_V1", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/packer_economics_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-10", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "32aa4dfed1e79a990b59f5236f51ad175d128f9fc2d07875bb801675379b7d11", "source_id": "USDA_APHIS", "source_module": "animal_health", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/animal_health_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "pass_max_days": 2, "state": "PASS", "watch_max_days": 5 }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-10 daily", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "a5dcc2a14c92313cd716fb1e00647c8ad6fe40954378827aa12db6e089c9ceb3", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_CASH", "source_module": "cash_cattle", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/cash_cattle_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "state": "UNKNOWN" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-07", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "c5bcdbe0f506542c06ebbc7e562c080bb298453e7afe5363f585d5177b6f59c2", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_BOXED_TUESDAY", "source_module": "boxed_beef_tuesday_history", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/boxed_beef_tuesday_history.json", "upstream_status": null, "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-12T04:03:59", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-03", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "e4eb25f3a94ee65ca44ea42fd7e3b2f7a3aabb215d793954637f7bab3b6ac780", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT", "source_module": "weekly_kill_weights", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/weekly_kill_weights.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "cadence": "Quarterly USDA ERS feeder supply", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-04-01", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "32d71256ffb42497325ea439db5ed6a00752be99019c9ab73562950ad87f581b", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_FEEDER_SUPPLY", "source_module": "ers_feeder_supply", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/ers_livestock_domestic_data/livestock-data-machine-readable-files/FeederCattleSuppliesOutsideFeedlots.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "DERIVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "cadence": "Annual USDA ERS herd replacement", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-01-01", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "281e3d55e23156459116f1b342105d36eb78c6d3295597ee52f60c846528960d", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_HERD_REPLACEMENT", "source_module": "ers_heifer_replacements", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/ers_livestock_domestic_data/livestock-data-machine-readable-files/heifersenteringherd.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" } ], "status": "PASS", "structural_futures_v2": { "cohort_timing_bridge": { "assumptions": { "contract_mapping": "Each possible market-ready day maps to the nearest still-unexpired Feb/Apr/Jun/Aug/Oct/Dec Live Cattle contract midpoint. Expiry uses the last weekday as an approximation and does not encode exchange holidays.", "days_on_feed": { "1000_lbs_and_greater": [ 50, 110 ], "600_699_lbs": [ 170, 230 ], "700_799_lbs": [ 140, 200 ], "800_899_lbs": [ 110, 170 ], "900_999_lbs": [ 80, 140 ], "less_than_600_lbs": [ 190, 250 ] }, "exposure_weighting": "Placement day and days-on-feed are modeled as independent discrete uniform assumptions, then convolved. These are scenario weights, not empirical probabilities.", "interpretation": "Head-equivalent exposure is a timing bridge, not deliverable supply, open interest, fair value, or a price forecast.", "placement_date_uncertainty": "Earliest uses activity-month start; latest uses activity-month end." }, "buckets": [ { "bucket_id": "less_than_600_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 209836.1, "delta_head_equivalent": -9836.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 219672.1, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.655738 }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 110163.9, "delta_head_equivalent": -5163.9, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 115327.9, "symbol": "LEG7", "window_day_share": 0.344262 } ], "current_head": 320000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 250, "minimum": 190 }, "delta_head": -15000, "delta_pct": -4.478, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-11-07", "latest": "2027-02-05" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-11-25", "p50": "2026-12-22", "p90": "2027-01-18", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 335000 }, { "bucket_id": "600_699_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 11549.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -1684.3, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 13233.7, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.048123 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 211189.8, "delta_head_equivalent": -30798.5, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 241988.4, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.879958 }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 17260.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -2517.2, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 19777.9, "symbol": "LEG7", "window_day_share": 0.07192 } ], "current_head": 240000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 230, "minimum": 170 }, "delta_head": -35000, "delta_pct": -12.727, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-10-18", "latest": "2027-01-16" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-11-05", "p50": "2026-12-02", "p90": "2026-12-29", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 275000 }, { "bucket_id": "700_799_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 183606.6, "delta_head_equivalent": -22950.8, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 206557.4, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.459016 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 216393.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -27049.2, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 243442.6, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.540984 } ], "current_head": 400000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 200, "minimum": 140 }, "delta_head": -50000, "delta_pct": -11.111, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-09-18", "latest": "2026-12-17" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-10-06", "p50": "2026-11-02", "p90": "2026-11-29", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 450000 }, { "bucket_id": "800_899_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 21366.5, "delta_head_equivalent": -3464.8, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 24831.3, "symbol": "LEQ6", "window_day_share": 0.048123 }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 382483.3, "delta_head_equivalent": -62024.3, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 444507.7, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.861449 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 40150.2, "delta_head_equivalent": -6510.8, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 46661.0, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.090428 } ], "current_head": 444000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 170, "minimum": 110 }, "delta_head": -72000, "delta_pct": -13.953, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-08-19", "latest": "2026-11-17" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-09-06", "p50": "2026-10-03", "p90": "2026-10-30", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 516000 }, { "bucket_id": "900_999_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 103278.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -2295.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 105573.8, "symbol": "LEQ6", "window_day_share": 0.459016 }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 121721.3, "delta_head_equivalent": -2704.9, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 124426.2, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.540984 } ], "current_head": 225000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": 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"value_kind": "OBSERVED_RELEASE" }, { "known_at_ct": "2026-06-18T14:00:00-05:00", "observation_id": "marketings_yoy_delta_pp", "unit": "percentage_point", "value": -12.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED_RELEASE" }, { "known_at_ct": "2026-06-18T14:00:00-05:00", "observation_id": "season_sin", "unit": "cyclical_component", "value": 0.5, "value_kind": "DERIVED_FROM_ACTIVITY_MONTH" }, { "known_at_ct": "2026-06-18T14:00:00-05:00", "observation_id": "season_cos", "unit": "cyclical_component", "value": -0.866025, "value_kind": "DERIVED_FROM_ACTIVITY_MONTH" } ], "provenance": { "source_sha256": "da477404f359a36b9d2b412f0dfdeaa4f3b05596c898c0655184124228fa9fbf", "source_url": "https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795942/cofd0626.txt" }, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "release_revision_id": "795942@2026-06-18T14:00:00-05:00", "release_timestamp_ct": "2026-06-18T14:00:00-05:00", "release_timestamp_kind": "RECORDED_SOURCE_TIMESTAMP", "research_only": true, "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false } }, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "research_only": true, "schema_version": "alpha.structural_futures.v2", "semantic_fingerprint": "8c9f5b3076382803e3e13013312694507acc20e1cd5c4e173d40371ce0174a76", "source_ledger": [ { "path": "/opt/alpha_current/data/cattle_on_feed/report_events.csv", "read_only": true, "rows": 114, "sha256": "8c9fa84f4a2ce005f1a3e636a6a01f0051000c3b69de93c11e649ab753fa166b", "source_id": "USDA_NASS_COF_AS_RELEASED" }, { "path": "/opt/alpha_current/data/cattle_on_feed/le_fixed_ohlcv_1d.parquet", "read_only": true, "rows": 14235, "sha256": "3d8a5e985d2a3e18f095e5aa09b5b7f5beb7654c4db87b0b91614a005842b9a1", "source_id": "DATABENTO_LE_FIXED_CONTRACT_DAILY" } ], "status": "PASS", "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "validation": { "all_training_labels_completed_before_prediction": true, "cohort_reconciliations_passed": true, "corrections_after_response_anchor_excluded": true, "data_status": { "event_rows": 114, "first_event_date": "2017-01-27", "fixed_contract_rows": 14235, "latest_event_date": "2026-06-18", "latest_event_price_reference_available": true, "price_first_date": "2020-01-02", "price_last_date": "2026-07-10", "response_panel_rows": 231 }, "events_filtered_to_as_of_cutoff": true, "historical_correction_policy": "Recorded same-date revisions are cutoff-aware. Later-date corrections are excluded from the report-response panel so they cannot be paired with an already-observed original-report return path; displaced originals are not guaranteed recoverable for every historical USDA correction.", "historical_original_corrections_complete": false, "latest_event_excluded_from_training": true, "model_gate_is_not_operational_gate": true, "numeric_forecast_policy": "No estimate is emitted with insufficient prior history; no model estimate affects WOW or decisions.", "point_in_time_release_timestamps": true, "price_reference_is_official_settlement": false, "price_reference_timestamp_retained": false, "price_rows_filtered_to_as_of_cutoff": true, "price_rows_unique_by_date_contract": true }, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "system_quality_audit": { "accountability_status": "PARTIAL", "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "critical_gates": { "decision_isolation_gate": true, "immutable_registry_gate": true, "no_operational_promotion_gate": true, "no_predictive_skill_claim_gate": true, "overall_health_gate": true, "point_in_time_gate": true, "reconciliation_gate": true, "runtime_permission_probe_gate": true, "source_alignment_and_price_freshness_gate": true, "wow_isolation_gate": true }, "critical_gates_passed": true, "decision_effect": "NONE", "dimensions": [ { "dimension_id": "SOURCE_PROVENANCE", "earned": 15.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "At least eight unique structural sources have explicit non-stale freshness, observed-at values, and fingerprints", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Every base ledger row is identified, fingerprinted, and read-only", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Both required V2 sources are nonempty, read-only, and SHA-256 fingerprinted", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Base COF and V2 latest releases align, and the fixed-contract panel is current", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Base structural vintages parse strictly, checkpoint tail loss, and chain new semantic records", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 } ], "label": "Source provenance and semantic integrity", "status": "PASS", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "POINT_IN_TIME", "earned": 12.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Events and prices are filtered to the as-of cutoff", "max_points": 4.0, "passed": true, "points": 4.0 }, { "criterion": "Training labels complete before prediction and latest event is excluded", "max_points": 4.0, "passed": true, "points": 4.0 }, { "criterion": "As-released event timestamps are retained", "max_points": 4.0, "passed": true, "points": 4.0 }, { "criterion": "Daily price reference retains a final-bar timestamp", "max_points": 1.5, "passed": false, "points": 0 }, { "criterion": "Historical original/correction pairs are complete", "max_points": 1.5, "passed": false, "points": 0 } ], "label": "Point-in-time and leakage controls", "limitation": 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"Contract and horizon specificity", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 }, { "dimension_id": "MODEL_GOVERNANCE", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Operational promotion is false", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 }, { "criterion": "Predictive edge remains explicitly unproven", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 }, { "criterion": "Calibration remains explicitly incomplete", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 }, { "criterion": "Pricing authority and execution points are zero", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 } ], "label": "Model governance without promotion leakage", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 }, { "dimension_id": "FORWARD_ACCOUNTABILITY", "earned": 9.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Append-only registry freeze hashes validate", "max_points": 2.0, "passed": true, "points": 2.0 }, { "criterion": "Prior sibling checkpoint detects single-file tail loss", "max_points": 1.0, "passed": true, "points": 1.0 }, { "criterion": 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Same-report roles, horizons, and revisions do not inflate the independent-release threshold. The sibling checkpoint is best-effort and no external WORM anchor exists; accountability is partial and predictive profitability is not graded.", "status": "PARTIAL", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "OPERATIONAL_ISOLATION", "earned": 15.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Base radar has no decision or WOW effect", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Registry writes only below the sibling radar root and the required runtime permission probe passes", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "No live-trade use, auto-promotion, or execution points", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Operational and WOW Command isolation", "status": "PASS", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "TRANSPARENCY", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Complete model card states purpose, target, data, leakage controls, limitations, and governance", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": 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"later_fed_pipeline_tightening", "weight_offsets_head_decline", "trade_cushions_domestic_availability", "processing_margin_pressure" ], "confirmation": "Later marketings and slaughter tighten after placement cohorts roll forward while meat cushions fade.", "contradictions": [ "cof_on_feed_head", "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs" ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "cof_placements_head", "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "beef_exports_ytd_cwe" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "current through 18 months", "invalidation": "Placements recover or meat availability remains ample enough to prevent the expected tightening.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "PRIMARY_WORKING_HYPOTHESIS", "state": "TIGHTENING_LATER_WITH_MEAT_CUSHIONS_NOW", "thesis_id": "later_head_tightness_near_meat_cushion", "title": "Later fed-cattle tightness, buffered near-term beef availability" }, { "confirmation": "Weights, imports, dairy-beef supply, or weak exports continue replacing domestic fed-cattle tonnage.", "contradictions": [ "cof_placements_head", "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots" ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "current through 12 months", "invalidation": "Weights normalize and trade cushions reverse before placements recover.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "COMPETING_HYPOTHESIS", "thesis_id": "meat_availability_outlasts_head_shortage", "title": "Beef availability stays adequate longer than cattle head counts imply" }, { "confirmation": "Verified capacity exits or sustained shift reductions tighten the hook-to-cattle balance.", "contradictions": [ "No verified plant closure is inferred from margin data alone." ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "cof_marketings_head", "weekly_fi_slaughter_head" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "3-24 months", "invalidation": "Margins recover and observed capacity remains stable.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "COMPETING_HYPOTHESIS", "thesis_id": "capacity_rationalization_changes_leverage", "title": "Processing-capacity rationalization changes packer and feedyard leverage" } ], "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "validation": { "all_units_typed": true, "decision_effect": "NONE", "failed_reconciliations": [], "futures_pricing_model_active": false, "maximum_execution_points": 0, "missing_core_metrics": [], "missing_inputs": [], "numeric_forecast_policy": "No forward numeric value is emitted until an independently validated model supplies it.", "point_in_time_only": true, "promotion_gate_passed": false, "semantic_vintage_chain_validation": "PASS_WITH_LEGACY_PREFIX", "semantic_vintage_checkpoint_prior_state": "PASS", "semantic_vintage_checkpoint_validation": "PASS", "semantic_vintage_external_anchor_present": false, "semantic_vintage_parse_strict": true, "semantic_vintages": true, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "vintage_record_hash": "298544ea06e764145cbfd9dfdaa802c9e557c08b2eb5551413729e9206f53f8b", "warnings": [] }, { "balance_sheet": { "as_of": "2026-07-10", "periods": [ { "period": "Current feedlot inventory", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current fed-cattle inventory.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 23, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Cattle on feed", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_on_feed_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "feedlot_inventory", "unit": "head", "value": 11682000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": 2.0 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Incoming placement pipeline", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Incoming fed-cattle pipeline.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 23, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Monthly placements", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_placements_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "incoming_pipeline", "unit": "head", "value": 1704000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -10.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 23, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements under 600 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_less_than_600_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 320000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 23, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 600-699 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_600_699_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 240000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 23, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 700-799 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_700_799_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 400000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 23, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 800-899 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_800_899_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 444000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 23, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 900-999 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_900_999_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 225000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 23, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 1,000+ lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_1000_lbs_and_greater", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 75000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "USDA ERS-derived feeder-cattle reservoir outside feedlots; lower inventory can constrain future placements.", "freshness": { "cadence": "Quarterly USDA ERS feeder supply", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Feeder cattle outside feedlots", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_FEEDER_SUPPLY" ], "stage": "feeder_supply", "unit": "thousand_head", "value": 18776.97, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-04-01", "yoy_pct": 2.2631 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Fed-cattle outflow and meat production", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Fed-cattle outflow toward slaughter.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 23, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Monthly marketings", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_marketings_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "fed_outflow", "unit": "head", "value": 1551000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -12.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Non-marketing feedlot disappearance.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 23, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Other disappearance", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_other_disappearance_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "fed_outflow", "unit": "head", "value": 55000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -11.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Observed weekly cattle head throughput.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-12T21:30:11", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Weekly federally inspected slaughter", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "slaughter", "unit": "head", "value": 458000.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-03", "yoy_pct": -3.3755 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Pounds produced per slaughtered animal.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-12T21:30:11", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Average dressed weight", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "yield", "unit": "lb_per_head", "value": 891.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-03", "yoy_pct": 2.8868 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Observed weekly beef output combines head throughput and carcass yield.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-12T21:30:11", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Weekly beef production", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "meat_output", "unit": "million_lb", "value": 407.2, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-03", "yoy_pct": -0.5617 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Counterfactual pounds effect holding year-ago dressed weight constant.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-12T21:30:11", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Head-count contribution to weekly production change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_head_count_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "production_bridge", "unit": "million_lb", "value": -13.856, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-03", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Incremental pounds attributable to the dressed-weight change at current slaughter.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-12T21:30:11", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Dressed-weight contribution to weekly production change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "production_bridge", "unit": "million_lb", "value": 11.45, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-03", "yoy_pct": null } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Trade and domestic availability", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Imported beef adds to domestic carcass-weight-equivalent availability.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date beef imports", "metadata": { "ytd_comparable": true, "ytd_through_month": 5 }, "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 2754566570.58, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": 9.9 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Exported beef removes product from domestic availability while reflecting foreign demand.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date beef exports", "metadata": { "ytd_comparable": true, "ytd_through_month": 5 }, "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 978518541.27, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": -17.2 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Imports less exports; this is a product-availability measure, not a fed-cattle-equivalent count.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date net beef imports", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 1776048029.31, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": -1.7187, "economic_read": "Weekly wholesale movement; descriptive context only because its futures validation gate has not passed.", "freshness": { "state": "UNKNOWN" }, "label": "Tuesday Choice/Select average weekly change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "tuesday_cutout_average_change_pct", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_BOXED_TUESDAY" ], "stage": "wholesale_demand", "unit": "percent", "value": -1.7187, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-07", "yoy_pct": null } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Capacity, cash, herd, and policy context", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Standardized box-minus-live operating-spread proxy; not company net income and not a futures timing signal.", "freshness": { "business_release_lag": 0, "calendar_age_days": 2, "expected_report_date": "2026-07-10", "holiday_calendar_note": "Weekday-aware; USDA holiday exceptions may produce WATCH until the next release.", "reason": "Latest expected weekday USDA CEI report is present.", "release_cutoff_ct": "15:45", "report_date": "2026-07-10", "state": "PASS", "status": "PASS", "weekend_aware": true }, "label": "USDA CEI gross packer spread", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_CEI" ], "stage": "processing_economics", "unit": "usd_per_cwt_carcass", "value": -5.2648, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current operating status constrains or restores feeder-cattle inflow; duration and price impact are not assumed.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Southern livestock port status", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_APHIS" ], "stage": "biological_policy", "unit": "status", "value": "CLOSED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current cash transmission and feedyard/packer leverage context.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "pass_max_days": 2, "state": "PASS", "watch_max_days": 5 }, "label": "Blended live cash cattle", "metadata": { "change_vs_last_week_usd_per_cwt": -7.14 }, "metric_id": "blended_live_cash", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_CASH" ], "stage": "cash_transmission", "unit": "usd_per_cwt_live", "value": 247.99, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Replacement intentions inform herd rebuilding capacity; they do not guarantee retained females or calf-crop growth.", "freshness": { "cadence": "Annual USDA ERS herd replacement", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Intended heifer replacements", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "intended_heifer_replacements", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_HERD_REPLACEMENT" ], "stage": "breeding_herd", "unit": "thousand_head", "value": 8618.8, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-01-01", "yoy_pct": 0.361 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" } ], "reconciliations": [ { "actual": 1704000.0, "check_id": "cof_placement_buckets", "expected": 1704000.0, "name": "Placement weight buckets sum to placements", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 1000.0, "unit": "head" }, { "actual": 11682000.0, "check_id": "cof_head_flow", "expected": 11682000.0, "name": "Opening inventory plus placements less outflows equals closing inventory", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 1000.0, "unit": "head" }, { "actual": 407.2, "check_id": "weekly_production_bridge", "expected": 407.094, "name": "Year-ago production plus head effect plus weight effect reconciles to current production", "passed": true, "residual": 0.106, "tolerance": 2.036, "unit": "million_lb" }, { "actual": 1776048029.31, "check_id": "net_trade_identity", "expected": 1776048029.31, "name": "Imports less exports equals net imports", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 0.01, "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent" } ], "status": "RECONCILED", "summary": { "beef_supply_change_pct": -0.5617, "dressed_weight_yoy_pct": 2.8868, "exports_ytd_change_pct": -17.2, "imports_ytd_change_pct": 9.9, "observation_count": 24, "reconciliation_count": 4, "reconciliation_pass_count": 4, "slaughter_yoy_pct": -3.3755, "source_count": 9, "source_ledger_row_count": 9, "status": "RECONCILED", "weight_offset_of_head_decline_pct": 82.64 }, "unit_policy": "No cattle-head-to-beef-pound conversion is made without an exposed observed weight or typed derivation." }, "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "change_alerts": [ { "alert_id": "later_fed_pipeline_tightening", "counter_evidence": "Current cattle on feed are +2.0% YoY.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "TIGHTENING_LATER", "horizon": "3-18 months", "invalidation": "Placements and feeder availability normalize, or the livestock-border constraint is formally removed.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "WATCH", "summary": "The later fed-cattle pipeline is tightening, but this is not a futures signal.", "triggers": [ { "label": "Placements -10.0% YoY", "metric_id": "cof_placements_head" }, { "label": "Southern livestock ports closed", "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports" } ] }, { "alert_id": "weight_offsets_head_decline", "counter_evidence": "Reported weekly beef production remains -0.6% YoY.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "MEAT_CUSHION", "horizon": "current to 3 months", "invalidation": "Dressed weights stop offsetting lower head throughput.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "ACTIVE", "summary": "Heavier carcasses are replacing part of the beef tonnage lost to lower slaughter.", "triggers": [ { "label": "Slaughter -3.4% YoY", "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head" }, { "label": "Dressed weight +2.9% YoY", "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs" } ] }, { "alert_id": "trade_cushions_domestic_availability", "counter_evidence": "Product mix and imported lean are not fully interchangeable with Choice fed-beef cuts.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "DOMESTIC_AVAILABILITY_CUSHION", "horizon": "current to 6 months", "invalidation": "Imports reverse lower and exports recover enough to remove the net availability cushion.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "ACTIVE", "summary": "Trade flows are cushioning domestic beef availability despite tighter cattle head counts.", "triggers": [ { "label": "YTD imports +9.9%", "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe" }, { "label": "YTD exports -17.2%", "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe" } ] }, { "alert_id": "processing_margin_pressure", "counter_evidence": "The CEI proxy is not company net income and plant-level economics vary.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "CAPACITY_RATIONALIZATION_RISK", "horizon": "current to 6 months", "invalidation": "Gross spreads recover persistently without a capacity reduction.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "WATCH", "summary": "Negative standardized packer spread and changing cash leverage keep capacity rationalization risk active.", "triggers": [ { "label": "CEI spread -5.26/cwt", "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass" }, { "label": "Cash weekly change -7.14/cwt", "metric_id": "blended_live_cash" } ] } ], "composer_contract": { "calibration_status": 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"training_cutoff": "Strictly before each prediction release; every included label must also have completed before that release.", "uncertainty": "Residual 10th/90th-percentile response interval where enough walk-forward residuals exist.", "validation_method": "Expanding-window point-in-time walk-forward", "validation_protocol": "Expanding-window, point-in-time walk-forward evaluation against an expanding-mean diagnostic baseline." }, "module": "ALPHA_STRUCTURAL_FORECAST_REGISTRY", "outcome_states": { "MATURED_DATA_PENDING": 0, "OPEN": 0, "RESOLVED": 0 }, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "research_only": true, "safety": { "auto_promotion_path": false, "decision_effect": "NONE", "max_points": 0, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "radar_write_root": "/opt/alpha_structural_radar", "runtime_permission_probe": { "decision_probe_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/decision_status.json", "effective_uid": 997, "method": "NON_MUTATING_OS_ACCESS_EFFECTIVE_IDS", "radar_outputs_path": "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs", "required": true, "results": { "decision_output_writable": false, "radar_outputs_writable": true, "source_root_writable": false }, "source_root": "/opt/alpha_current", "status": "PASS" }, "source_root_read_only": "/opt/alpha_current", "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "wow_command_effect": "NONE", "write_allowlist": [ "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/data/structural_forecast_registry/records.jsonl", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs/structural_forecast_registry_status.json", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/state/structural_forecast_registry.lock" ], "writes_only_below_radar_root": true }, "schema_version": "alpha.structural_forecast_registry.v1", "scorecard": { "baseline": { "baseline_id": "ZERO_CHANGE_FIXED_CONTRACT_V1", "definition": "Zero report-response return from the pre-report fixed-contract close.", "frozen_at_issuance": true }, "by_contract_role": {}, "by_horizon": { "d1": { "baseline_mae_response_pct": null, "interval_80_coverage": null, "mae_skill_vs_zero_change_baseline": null, "model_directional_accuracy": null, "model_mae_response_pct": null, "model_mean_error_response_pct": null, "model_rmse_response_pct": null, "n_resolved": 0, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "unique_release_revision_count": 0, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, "d20": { "baseline_mae_response_pct": null, "interval_80_coverage": null, "mae_skill_vs_zero_change_baseline": null, "model_directional_accuracy": null, "model_mae_response_pct": null, "model_mean_error_response_pct": null, "model_rmse_response_pct": null, "n_resolved": 0, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "unique_release_revision_count": 0, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, "d40": { "baseline_mae_response_pct": null, "interval_80_coverage": null, "mae_skill_vs_zero_change_baseline": null, "model_directional_accuracy": null, "model_mae_response_pct": null, "model_mean_error_response_pct": null, "model_rmse_response_pct": null, "n_resolved": 0, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "unique_release_revision_count": 0, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, "d5": { "baseline_mae_response_pct": null, "interval_80_coverage": null, "mae_skill_vs_zero_change_baseline": null, "model_directional_accuracy": null, "model_mae_response_pct": null, "model_mean_error_response_pct": null, "model_rmse_response_pct": null, "n_resolved": 0, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "unique_release_revision_count": 0, "unique_report_release_count": 0 } }, "evaluation_population": "Only forecasts frozen while their target was genuinely open and later resolved from the same fixed contract.", "metric_policy": { "open_forecasts_scored": false, "primary": "MAE response percentage points relative to baseline MAE", "secondary": [ "RMSE", "mean error", "directional accuracy", "80% interval coverage" ] }, "overall": { "baseline_mae_response_pct": null, "interval_80_coverage": null, "mae_skill_vs_zero_change_baseline": null, "model_directional_accuracy": null, "model_mae_response_pct": null, "model_mean_error_response_pct": null, "model_rmse_response_pct": null, "n_resolved": 0, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "unique_release_revision_count": 0, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "profitability_claim": false, "schema_version": "alpha.structural_forecast_scorecard.v1" }, "status": "PASS", "warnings": [] }, "forecast_scorecard": { "baseline": "ZERO_CHANGE_FIXED_CONTRACT_V1", "baseline_name": "ZERO_CHANGE_FIXED_CONTRACT_V1", "breakdowns": [ { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d1", "label": "D1", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d5", "label": "D5", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d20", "label": "D20", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d40", "label": "D40", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 } ], "by_horizon": [ { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d1", "label": "D1", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d5", "label": "D5", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d20", "label": "D20", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d40", "label": "D40", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 } ], "calibration": [], "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "directional_accuracy": null, "forward_resolved_count": 0, "forward_resolved_forecast_count": 0, "forward_test_status": "OPEN_BOOK_NO_FORWARD_RESOLUTIONS", "interval_coverage": null, "mae": null, "mae_skill_vs_baseline": null, "matured_data_pending_count": 0, "mean_bias": null, "open_forecast_count": 0, "performance_status": "UNPROVEN", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "profitability_claim": false, "resolved_forecast_count": 0, "rmse": null, "schema_version": "alpha.structural_forecast_scorecard.v1", "skill_vs_baseline": null, "status": "NO_RESOLVED_FORWARD_FORECASTS", "unique_resolved_release_revision_count": 0, "unique_resolved_report_release_count": 0, "validation_mode": "IMMUTABLE_GENUINELY_FORWARD_OOS" }, "frozen_forecasts": [], "futures_implications": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESES", "generated_at_ct": "2026-07-12T16:50:11.105363-05:00", "headline": { "confidence": "HIGH", "dominant_stage": "placements_vs_meat_availability", "horizon": "current through 18 months", "state": "TIGHTENING_LATER_WITH_MEAT_CUSHIONS_NOW", "text": "The later fed-cattle pipeline is tightening while heavier carcasses and trade flows cushion beef availability now.", "what_changed": "No semantic structural change since the prior frozen vintage." }, "history": { "changed_metric_ids": [], "previous_fingerprint": "6737e24c71a7cf42952b4ce7069759189ab855322ed3d6c4b7ac002b82903b45", "semantic_changed": true, "vintage_count": 4, "vintage_recorded": true }, "live_trade_status": "DISABLED", "max_points": 0, "mode": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "model_card": { "baseline": "Expanding historical mean inside V2 walk-forward diagnostics; zero-change baseline in the immutable forward registry.", "calibration_policy": "No calibrated claim until at least 36 independent genuinely forward report releases and at least 10 unique releases per claimed horizon; correlated role-by-horizon cells and same-report revisions do not count as independent releases. Current status remains NOT_CALIBRATED.", "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "data_sources": [ "USDA NASS COF as-released event rows", "Databento Live Cattle fixed-contract daily bars" ], "evaluation_metrics": [ "MAE", "baseline-relative MAE skill", "directional accuracy", "prediction correlation", "80% interval coverage" ], "fairness_scope": "Not applicable to people; monitor contract-month and market-regime coverage instead.", "feature_families": [ "USDA COF year-over-year release values", "activity-month seasonality" ], "features": [ "on_feed_yoy_delta_pp", "placements_yoy_delta_pp", "marketings_yoy_delta_pp", "activity_month_season_sin", "activity_month_season_cos" ], "governance": { "auto_promotion_path": false, "decision_effect": "NONE", "max_points": 0, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "horizon_definitions": { "d1": "1 actual later fixed-contract session(s)", "d20": "20 actual later fixed-contract session(s)", "d40": "40 actual later fixed-contract session(s)", "d5": "5 actual later fixed-contract session(s)" }, "horizons": [ "d1", "d5", "d20", "d40" ], "intended_uses": [ "research", "hypothesis tracking", "forward accountability", "contract-window comparison" ], "known_limitations": [ "No contemporaneous consensus-surprise feature", "Conditional report response is not all-factor intrinsic value", "Weekday target scheduling is conservative and is reconciled to actual fixed-contract sessions at resolution", "No demonstrated forward predictive edge yet", "No transaction costs, slippage, liquidity, or executable strategy economics" ], "leakage_controls": [ "As-released report values only", "Latest event excluded from training", "Training labels must complete before prediction", "Forward registry rejects horizons already mature at first issuance" ], "lifecycle_status": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "model_name": "Structural Futures V2 fixed-contract COF response", "model_type": "Expanding-window ridge regression with fixed-contract event responses", "model_version": "cof-fixed-contract-ridge-v2.1.0", "monitoring": { "baseline_relative_scorecard": true, "calibration_minimum_unique_report_releases": 36, "immutable_forecast_book": true, "open_outcomes_retained": true }, "owner": "Alpha Structural Radar research boundary", "prediction_population": "Highest-volume unexpired Live Cattle fixed contract and the next two listed expiries on the release date.", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "prohibited_uses": [ "WOW Command input", "official decision input", "live trading", "position sizing", "intrinsic fair-value claim" ], "promotion_criteria": [ "At least 36 independent genuinely forward report releases", "At least 10 unique report releases per claimed horizon", "Positive baseline-relative MAE skill with stable directional evidence", "Independent governance review; never automatic promotion" ], "promotion_gate_passed": false, "purpose": "Estimate a conditional fixed-contract price response after a Cattle on Feed release.", "reproducibility": "Each issuance freezes the implementation SHA-256, fitted ridge coefficients/normalization/penalty, exact training-row identity hash, event features, source hashes, and model-spec hash.", "schema_version": "alpha.model_card.structural_futures_v2.v1", "status": "RESEARCH_ONLY_UNVALIDATED", "target": "Nth actual later RTH last-trade close versus same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close before the after-close COF release; these are not official CME settlements.", "target_definition": "Nth actual later RTH last-trade close versus same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close before the after-close COF release; these are not official CME settlements.", "training": { "continuous_or_stitched_prices_used": false, "fixed_contract_only": true, "method": "Ridge regression fit only to fully labeled events available before each prediction timestamp.", "minimum_train_events": 24, "walk_forward_evaluation": true }, "training_cutoff": "Strictly before each prediction release; every included label must also have completed before that release.", "uncertainty": "Residual 10th/90th-percentile response interval where enough walk-forward residuals exist.", "validation_method": "Expanding-window point-in-time walk-forward", "validation_protocol": "Expanding-window, point-in-time walk-forward evaluation against an expanding-mean diagnostic baseline." }, "module": "ALPHA_STRUCTURAL_RADAR_V1", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "previous_vintage_record_hash": "298544ea06e764145cbfd9dfdaa802c9e557c08b2eb5551413729e9206f53f8b", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "revision_ledger": [ { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_on_feed_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_placements_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_marketings_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_other_disappearance_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_less_than_600_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_600_699_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_700_799_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_800_899_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_900_999_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_1000_lbs_and_greater", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-03" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-03" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-03" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_head_count_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-03" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-03" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "blended_live_cash", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "tuesday_cutout_average_change_pct", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-07" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-04-01" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "intended_heifer_replacements", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-01-01" } ], "schema_version": "1.0.0", "semantic_fingerprint": "a5d11b02eb6afff364423e51e8ce89403af8fe6cbb38044c5bd7774ce7e1b39b", "separation_contract": { "auto_promotion_path": false, "calls_decision_components": false, "official_decision_effect": "NONE", "radar_write_root": "/opt/alpha_structural_radar", "reads_decision_outputs": false, "source_root_read_only": "/opt/alpha_current", "wow_command_effect": "NONE", "write_allowlist": [ "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs/structural_radar_status.json", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs/structural_radar_history.json", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/data/structural_radar/vintages.jsonl", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/state/structural_radar.lock" ], "writes_decision_outputs": false }, "source_ledger": [ { "error": null, "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 23, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-06-18", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "c0a0124ede59df305ad669eb0827f9871e2f73830769bfdff31fc1510fabf231", "source_id": "USDA_NASS_COF", "source_module": "cattle_on_feed", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/cattle_on_feed_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-05", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "0fdbe0e6421b6dad597692f30dbf9e72a615499e40ede8178cc26789f85fa583", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_TRADE", "source_module": "import_exports", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/import_exports_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "business_release_lag": 0, "calendar_age_days": 2, "expected_report_date": "2026-07-10", "holiday_calendar_note": "Weekday-aware; USDA holiday exceptions may produce WATCH until the next release.", "reason": "Latest expected weekday USDA CEI report is present.", "release_cutoff_ct": "15:45", "report_date": "2026-07-10", "state": "PASS", "status": "PASS", "weekend_aware": true }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-10 after 15:30 CT", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "bfdf3450617b3f338741ec01732cd3c68162bf20932f833f2559264e012498b4", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_CEI", "source_module": "ALPHA_PACKER_ECONOMICS_V1", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/packer_economics_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-10", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "32aa4dfed1e79a990b59f5236f51ad175d128f9fc2d07875bb801675379b7d11", "source_id": "USDA_APHIS", "source_module": "animal_health", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/animal_health_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "pass_max_days": 2, "state": "PASS", "watch_max_days": 5 }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-10 daily", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "a5dcc2a14c92313cd716fb1e00647c8ad6fe40954378827aa12db6e089c9ceb3", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_CASH", "source_module": "cash_cattle", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/cash_cattle_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "state": "UNKNOWN" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-07", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "c5bcdbe0f506542c06ebbc7e562c080bb298453e7afe5363f585d5177b6f59c2", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_BOXED_TUESDAY", "source_module": "boxed_beef_tuesday_history", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/boxed_beef_tuesday_history.json", "upstream_status": null, "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-12T21:30:11", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-03", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "bb5b6dfb784c2856be7ce44b41aa8312a4688438b77d4e0a55abfb0c4b9c29af", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT", "source_module": "weekly_kill_weights", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/weekly_kill_weights.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "cadence": "Quarterly USDA ERS feeder supply", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-04-01", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "32d71256ffb42497325ea439db5ed6a00752be99019c9ab73562950ad87f581b", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_FEEDER_SUPPLY", "source_module": "ers_feeder_supply", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/ers_livestock_domestic_data/livestock-data-machine-readable-files/FeederCattleSuppliesOutsideFeedlots.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "DERIVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "cadence": "Annual USDA ERS herd replacement", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-01-01", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "281e3d55e23156459116f1b342105d36eb78c6d3295597ee52f60c846528960d", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_HERD_REPLACEMENT", "source_module": "ers_heifer_replacements", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/ers_livestock_domestic_data/livestock-data-machine-readable-files/heifersenteringherd.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" } ], "status": "PASS", "structural_futures_v2": { "cohort_timing_bridge": { "assumptions": { "contract_mapping": "Each possible market-ready day maps to the nearest still-unexpired Feb/Apr/Jun/Aug/Oct/Dec Live Cattle contract midpoint. Expiry uses the last weekday as an approximation and does not encode exchange holidays.", "days_on_feed": { "1000_lbs_and_greater": [ 50, 110 ], "600_699_lbs": [ 170, 230 ], "700_799_lbs": [ 140, 200 ], "800_899_lbs": [ 110, 170 ], "900_999_lbs": [ 80, 140 ], "less_than_600_lbs": [ 190, 250 ] }, "exposure_weighting": "Placement day and days-on-feed are modeled as independent discrete uniform assumptions, then convolved. These are scenario weights, not empirical probabilities.", "interpretation": "Head-equivalent exposure is a timing bridge, not deliverable supply, open interest, fair value, or a price forecast.", "placement_date_uncertainty": "Earliest uses activity-month start; latest uses activity-month end." }, "buckets": [ { "bucket_id": "less_than_600_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 209836.1, "delta_head_equivalent": -9836.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 219672.1, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.655738 }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 110163.9, "delta_head_equivalent": -5163.9, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 115327.9, "symbol": "LEG7", "window_day_share": 0.344262 } ], "current_head": 320000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 250, "minimum": 190 }, "delta_head": -15000, "delta_pct": -4.478, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-11-07", "latest": "2027-02-05" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-11-25", "p50": "2026-12-22", "p90": "2027-01-18", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 335000 }, { "bucket_id": "600_699_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 11549.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -1684.3, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 13233.7, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.048123 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 211189.8, "delta_head_equivalent": -30798.5, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 241988.4, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.879958 }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 17260.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -2517.2, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 19777.9, "symbol": "LEG7", "window_day_share": 0.07192 } ], "current_head": 240000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 230, "minimum": 170 }, "delta_head": -35000, "delta_pct": -12.727, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-10-18", "latest": "2027-01-16" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-11-05", "p50": "2026-12-02", "p90": "2026-12-29", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 275000 }, { "bucket_id": "700_799_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 183606.6, "delta_head_equivalent": -22950.8, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 206557.4, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.459016 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 216393.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -27049.2, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 243442.6, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.540984 } ], "current_head": 400000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 200, "minimum": 140 }, "delta_head": -50000, "delta_pct": -11.111, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-09-18", "latest": "2026-12-17" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-10-06", "p50": "2026-11-02", "p90": "2026-11-29", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 450000 }, { "bucket_id": "800_899_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 21366.5, "delta_head_equivalent": -3464.8, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 24831.3, "symbol": "LEQ6", "window_day_share": 0.048123 }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 382483.3, "delta_head_equivalent": -62024.3, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 444507.7, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.861449 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 40150.2, "delta_head_equivalent": -6510.8, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 46661.0, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.090428 } ], "current_head": 444000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 170, "minimum": 110 }, "delta_head": -72000, "delta_pct": -13.953, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-08-19", "latest": "2026-11-17" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-09-06", "p50": "2026-10-03", "p90": "2026-10-30", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 516000 }, { "bucket_id": "900_999_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 103278.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -2295.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 105573.8, "symbol": "LEQ6", "window_day_share": 0.459016 }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 121721.3, "delta_head_equivalent": -2704.9, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 124426.2, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.540984 } ], "current_head": 225000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 140, "minimum": 80 }, "delta_head": -5000, "delta_pct": -2.174, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-07-20", "latest": "2026-10-18" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-08-07", "p50": "2026-09-03", "p90": "2026-09-30", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 230000 }, { "bucket_id": "1000_lbs_and_greater", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-06", "current_head_equivalent": 2617.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -174.5, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 2792.2, "symbol": "LEM6", "window_day_share": 0.034902 }, { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 65600.2, "delta_head_equivalent": -4373.3, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 69973.6, "symbol": "LEQ6", "window_day_share": 0.874669 }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 6782.1, "delta_head_equivalent": -452.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 7234.3, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.090428 } ], "current_head": 75000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 110, "minimum": 50 }, "delta_head": -5000, "delta_pct": -6.25, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-06-20", "latest": "2026-09-18" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-07-08", "p50": "2026-08-04", "p90": "2026-08-31", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 80000 } ], "comparison": "SAME_ACTIVITY_MONTH_AS_RELEASED_YEAR_OVER_YEAR", "contracts": [ { "contract_month": "2026-06", "current_head_equivalent": 2617.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -174.5, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 2792.2, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEM6" }, { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 190245.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -10133.3, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 200378.6, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEQ6" }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 706142.8, "delta_head_equivalent": -89816.5, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 795959.3, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEV6" }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 677569.5, "delta_head_equivalent": -74194.6, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 751764.1, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEZ6" }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 127424.6, "delta_head_equivalent": -7681.1, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 135105.8, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEG7" } ], "latest_activity_month": "2026-05-01", "latest_release_date": "2026-06-18", "prior_year_activity_month": "2025-05-01", "prior_year_release_date": "2025-06-20", "reconciliations": [ { "actual": 1704000.0, "check_id": "latest_bucket_sum_to_placements", "expected": 1704000.0, "passed": true, "residual_head": 0.0, "tolerance_head": 1000.0 }, { "actual": 1886000.0, "check_id": "prior_bucket_sum_to_placements", "expected": 1886000.0, "passed": true, "residual_head": 0.0, "tolerance_head": 1000.0 }, { "actual": -182000.0, "check_id": "contract_exposure_delta_to_bucket_delta", "expected": -182000.0, "passed": true, "residual_head": 0.0, "tolerance_head": 1.0 } ], "status": "PASS" }, "contract_response_models": { "continuous_or_stitched_prices_used": false, "contract_estimates": [ { "cohort_timing_exposure": { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 190245.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -10133.3, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 200378.6, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEQ6" }, "contract_id": "LE-2026-08", "horizons": [ { "conditional_fair_value": 248.425, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 245.4, 250.825 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d1", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": 0.374873, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-22" }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.676151, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -0.548147, 1.653802 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 248.65, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 242.6, 254.025 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d5", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": -0.273556, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-26" }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.765928, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.683544, 2.951848 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 249.55, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 240.2, 264.075 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d20", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "predicted_response_pct": 1.131717, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -2.650467, 7.024054 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 251.75, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 242.55, 269.175 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d40", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "predicted_response_pct": 2.027405, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.702378, 9.086627 ], "status": "PASS" } ], "role": "near", "symbol": "LEQ6" }, { "cohort_timing_exposure": { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 706142.8, "delta_head_equivalent": -89816.5, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 795959.3, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEV6" }, "contract_id": "LE-2026-10", "horizons": [ { "conditional_fair_value": 241.825, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 239.2, 243.675 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d1", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": 0.531029, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-22" }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.721589, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -0.374333, 1.488104 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 242.075, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 236.45, 246.775 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d5", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": -0.322782, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-26" }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.81965, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.519832, 2.784357 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 242.9, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 233.525, 255.925 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d20", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "predicted_response_pct": 1.16672, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -2.742707, 6.594272 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 245.025, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 236.95, 261.5 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d40", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "predicted_response_pct": 2.053093, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.30899, 8.914597 ], "status": "PASS" } ], "role": "mid", "symbol": "LEV6" }, { "cohort_timing_exposure": { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 677569.5, "delta_head_equivalent": -74194.6, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 751764.1, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEZ6" }, "contract_id": "LE-2026-12", "horizons": [ { "conditional_fair_value": 240.8, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 238.65, 242.325 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d1", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": 0.585468, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-22" }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.697705, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -0.196348, 1.335889 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 241.175, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 235.65, 246.15 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d5", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": -0.230005, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-26" }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.857373, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.450258, 2.941915 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 241.675, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 234.8, 254.525 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d20", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "predicted_response_pct": 1.06329, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.805714, 6.442563 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 243.8, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 232.9, 258.5 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d40", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "predicted_response_pct": 1.958683, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -2.607012, 8.100815 ], "status": "PASS" } ], "role": "deferred", "symbol": "LEZ6" } ], "contract_selection": "Highest-volume unexpired named fixed contract is near; the next two canonical year-month expiries are mid and deferred.", "curve_twist_model_active": false, "curve_twist_pricing_authority": "NONE", "fair_value_limitation": "Conditional report-response price is not an all-factor intrinsic fair value and cannot be promoted by this module.", "fixed_contract_only": true, "implementation_sha256": "122b355739d8f28522367bcb9b4097a897fa382cc2fbe049c89d448fb81c0d56", "known_limitations": [ "Historical price references are Databento RTH last-trade closes, not official CME settlements.", "Daily source rows do not retain the final bar timestamp; pre-release ordering relies on the scheduled 13:05 CT RTH close preceding the recorded 14:00 CT COF release.", "No licensed analyst-consensus surprise series is available; report features are printed YoY levels, not consensus surprises.", "Role, horizon, and regime heterogeneity remain research limitations; all operational gates stay closed." ], "latest_release_date": "2026-06-18", "model_version": "cof-fixed-contract-ridge-v2.1.0", "models": [ { "all_training_labels_available_before_prediction": true, "conditional_fair_value": 248.425, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 245.4, 250.825 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "fair_value_definition": "Same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close multiplied by the estimated report-response return; not an official settlement, intrinsic value, or promoted forecast.", "feature_names": [ "on_feed_yoy_delta_pp", "placements_yoy_delta_pp", "marketings_yoy_delta_pp", "season_sin", "season_cos" ], "fitted_artifact": { "artifact_sha256": "ffd04de9dff59a4eb2924288f5a0f4256cd185623649717df992aca5d4bbe5c0", "coefficients_intercept_first": [ 0.034126369519, 0.049050733065, -0.413444458786, 0.055169899391, 0.011581942112, -0.178955710517 ], "feature_means": [ -0.289473684211, -1.592105263158, -1.618421052632, 0.055684879047, 0.024552965839 ], "feature_names": [ "on_feed_yoy_delta_pp", "placements_yoy_delta_pp", "marketings_yoy_delta_pp", "season_sin", "season_cos" ], "feature_scales": [ 2.10772881928, 8.169548128293, 8.31607053156, 0.702573640668, 0.709003967233 ], "ridge_penalty": 4.0, "training_row_count": 76, "training_row_identity_sha256": "4bcbf38dd3ccf141d56232a2808a0eff1ee1acfb093c1f782bf771a4e993f807" }, "gate_checks": { "beats_zero_return_baseline": false, "directional_accuracy_at_least_52pct": false, "interval_80_coverage_65_to_90pct": true, "mae_skill_at_least_5pct": false, "n_oos_at_least_36": true, "prediction_correlation_at_least_0_10": true }, "horizon": "d1", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": 0.374873, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-22" }, "max_training_label_date": "2026-05-26", "min_train_events": 24, "model_version": "cof-fixed-contract-ridge-v2.1.0", "n_train": 76, "pre_report_close": 246.75, "predicted_response_pct": 0.676151, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-08", "prediction_release_date": "2026-06-18", "prediction_symbol": "LEQ6", "price_reference_kind": 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"An external protected/WORM ledger anchor exists", "max_points": 1.0, "passed": false, "points": 0 }, { "criterion": "Forecast IDs are deterministic and issuance is deduplicated", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Open and matured-unresolved outcomes remain explicit and unscored", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "At least 36 independent forward report releases and 10 unique releases per claimed horizon are resolved", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": false, "points": 0 } ], "label": "Immutable forward forecast accountability", "limitation": "0 correlated forecast cells across 0 independent report releases are resolved. Same-report roles, horizons, and revisions do not inflate the independent-release threshold. The sibling checkpoint is best-effort and no external WORM anchor exists; accountability is partial and predictive profitability is not graded.", "status": "PARTIAL", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "OPERATIONAL_ISOLATION", "earned": 15.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Base radar has no decision or WOW effect", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Registry writes only below the sibling radar root and the required runtime permission probe passes", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "No live-trade use, auto-promotion, or execution points", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Operational and WOW Command isolation", "status": "PASS", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "TRANSPARENCY", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Complete model card states purpose, target, data, leakage controls, limitations, and governance", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Scorecard names a frozen baseline and baseline-relative primary metric", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Model-card and baseline transparency", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 } ], "eligibility": { "operational_promotion_eligible": false, "predictive_profitability_grade_eligible": false, "status": "ELIGIBLE_SYSTEM_QUALITY_ONLY", "system_quality_grade_eligible": true }, "explicit_exclusions": [ "predictive profitability", "tradable edge", "live execution quality", "risk-adjusted returns" ], "max_points": 0, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "profitability_claim": false, "rubric_id": "ALPHA_SYSTEM_QUALITY_NON_PROFITABILITY_V1", "schema_version": "alpha.system_quality_audit.v1", "scope": "SYSTEM_DESIGN_DATA_INTEGRITY_GOVERNANCE_AND_ACCOUNTABILITY", "score": { "earned": 91.0, "grade": "A-", "maximum": 100.0, "normalized_10": 9.1 }, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "theses": [ { "active_alert_ids": [ "later_fed_pipeline_tightening", "weight_offsets_head_decline", "trade_cushions_domestic_availability", "processing_margin_pressure" ], "confirmation": "Later marketings and slaughter tighten after placement cohorts roll forward while meat cushions fade.", "contradictions": [ "cof_on_feed_head", "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs" ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "cof_placements_head", "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "beef_exports_ytd_cwe" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "current through 18 months", "invalidation": "Placements recover or meat availability remains ample enough to prevent the expected tightening.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "PRIMARY_WORKING_HYPOTHESIS", "state": "TIGHTENING_LATER_WITH_MEAT_CUSHIONS_NOW", "thesis_id": "later_head_tightness_near_meat_cushion", "title": "Later fed-cattle tightness, buffered near-term beef availability" }, { "confirmation": "Weights, imports, dairy-beef supply, or weak exports continue replacing domestic fed-cattle tonnage.", "contradictions": [ "cof_placements_head", "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots" ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "current through 12 months", "invalidation": "Weights normalize and trade cushions reverse before placements recover.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "COMPETING_HYPOTHESIS", "thesis_id": "meat_availability_outlasts_head_shortage", "title": "Beef availability stays adequate longer than cattle head counts imply" }, { "confirmation": "Verified capacity exits or sustained shift reductions tighten the hook-to-cattle balance.", "contradictions": [ "No verified plant closure is inferred from margin data alone." ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "cof_marketings_head", "weekly_fi_slaughter_head" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "3-24 months", "invalidation": "Margins recover and observed capacity remains stable.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "COMPETING_HYPOTHESIS", "thesis_id": "capacity_rationalization_changes_leverage", "title": "Processing-capacity rationalization changes packer and feedyard leverage" } ], "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "validation": { "all_units_typed": true, "decision_effect": "NONE", "failed_reconciliations": [], "futures_pricing_model_active": false, "maximum_execution_points": 0, "missing_core_metrics": [], "missing_inputs": [], "numeric_forecast_policy": "No forward numeric value is emitted until an independently validated model supplies it.", "point_in_time_only": true, "promotion_gate_passed": false, "semantic_vintage_chain_validation": "PASS_WITH_LEGACY_PREFIX", "semantic_vintage_checkpoint_prior_state": "PASS", "semantic_vintage_checkpoint_validation": "PASS", "semantic_vintage_external_anchor_present": false, "semantic_vintage_parse_strict": true, "semantic_vintages": true, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "vintage_record_hash": "2961ee5ffdcb90e7617ddad816f5cec27cd173b0424325833f4969dda2a24f29", "warnings": [] }, { "balance_sheet": { "as_of": "2026-07-10", "periods": [ { "period": "Current feedlot inventory", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current fed-cattle inventory.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 23, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Cattle on feed", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_on_feed_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "feedlot_inventory", "unit": "head", "value": 11682000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": 2.0 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Incoming placement pipeline", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Incoming fed-cattle pipeline.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 23, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Monthly placements", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_placements_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "incoming_pipeline", "unit": "head", "value": 1704000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -10.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 23, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements under 600 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_less_than_600_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 320000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 23, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 600-699 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_600_699_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 240000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 23, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 700-799 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_700_799_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 400000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 23, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 800-899 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_800_899_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 444000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 23, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 900-999 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_900_999_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 225000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 23, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 1,000+ lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_1000_lbs_and_greater", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 75000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "USDA ERS-derived feeder-cattle reservoir outside feedlots; lower inventory can constrain future placements.", "freshness": { "cadence": "Quarterly USDA ERS feeder supply", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Feeder cattle outside feedlots", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_FEEDER_SUPPLY" ], "stage": "feeder_supply", "unit": "thousand_head", "value": 18776.97, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-04-01", "yoy_pct": 2.2631 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Fed-cattle outflow and meat production", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Fed-cattle outflow toward slaughter.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 23, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Monthly marketings", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_marketings_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "fed_outflow", "unit": "head", "value": 1551000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -12.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Non-marketing feedlot disappearance.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 23, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Other disappearance", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_other_disappearance_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "fed_outflow", "unit": "head", "value": 55000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -11.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Observed weekly cattle head throughput.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-12T21:30:11", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Weekly federally inspected slaughter", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "slaughter", "unit": "head", "value": 458000.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-03", "yoy_pct": -3.3755 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Pounds produced per slaughtered animal.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-12T21:30:11", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Average dressed weight", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "yield", "unit": "lb_per_head", "value": 891.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-03", "yoy_pct": 2.8868 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Observed weekly beef output combines head throughput and carcass yield.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-12T21:30:11", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Weekly beef production", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "meat_output", "unit": "million_lb", "value": 407.2, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-03", "yoy_pct": -0.5617 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Counterfactual pounds effect holding year-ago dressed weight constant.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-12T21:30:11", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Head-count contribution to weekly production change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_head_count_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "production_bridge", "unit": "million_lb", "value": -13.856, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-03", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Incremental pounds attributable to the dressed-weight change at current slaughter.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-12T21:30:11", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Dressed-weight contribution to weekly production change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "production_bridge", "unit": "million_lb", "value": 11.45, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-03", "yoy_pct": null } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Trade and domestic availability", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Imported beef adds to domestic carcass-weight-equivalent availability.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date beef imports", "metadata": { "ytd_comparable": true, "ytd_through_month": 5 }, "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 2754566570.58, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": 9.9 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Exported beef removes product from domestic availability while reflecting foreign demand.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date beef exports", "metadata": { "ytd_comparable": true, "ytd_through_month": 5 }, "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 978518541.27, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": -17.2 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Imports less exports; this is a product-availability measure, not a fed-cattle-equivalent count.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date net beef imports", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 1776048029.31, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": -1.7187, "economic_read": "Weekly wholesale movement; descriptive context only because its futures validation gate has not passed.", "freshness": { "state": "UNKNOWN" }, "label": "Tuesday Choice/Select average weekly change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "tuesday_cutout_average_change_pct", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_BOXED_TUESDAY" ], "stage": "wholesale_demand", "unit": "percent", "value": -1.7187, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-07", "yoy_pct": null } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Capacity, cash, herd, and policy context", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Standardized box-minus-live operating-spread proxy; not company net income and not a futures timing signal.", "freshness": { "business_release_lag": 0, "calendar_age_days": 2, "expected_report_date": "2026-07-10", "holiday_calendar_note": "Weekday-aware; USDA holiday exceptions may produce WATCH until the next release.", "reason": "Latest expected weekday USDA CEI report is present.", "release_cutoff_ct": "15:45", "report_date": "2026-07-10", "state": "PASS", "status": "PASS", "weekend_aware": true }, "label": "USDA CEI gross packer spread", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_CEI" ], "stage": "processing_economics", "unit": "usd_per_cwt_carcass", "value": -5.2648, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current operating status constrains or restores feeder-cattle inflow; duration and price impact are not assumed.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Southern livestock port status", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_APHIS" ], "stage": "biological_policy", "unit": "status", "value": "CLOSED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current cash transmission and feedyard/packer leverage context.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "pass_max_days": 2, "state": "PASS", "watch_max_days": 5 }, "label": "Blended live cash cattle", "metadata": { "change_vs_last_week_usd_per_cwt": -7.14 }, "metric_id": "blended_live_cash", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_CASH" ], "stage": "cash_transmission", "unit": "usd_per_cwt_live", "value": 247.99, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Replacement intentions inform herd rebuilding capacity; they do not guarantee retained females or calf-crop growth.", "freshness": { "cadence": "Annual USDA ERS herd replacement", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Intended heifer replacements", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "intended_heifer_replacements", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_HERD_REPLACEMENT" ], "stage": "breeding_herd", "unit": "thousand_head", "value": 8618.8, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-01-01", "yoy_pct": 0.361 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" } ], "reconciliations": [ { "actual": 1704000.0, "check_id": "cof_placement_buckets", "expected": 1704000.0, "name": "Placement weight buckets sum to placements", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 1000.0, "unit": "head" }, { "actual": 11682000.0, "check_id": "cof_head_flow", "expected": 11682000.0, "name": "Opening inventory plus placements less outflows equals closing inventory", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 1000.0, "unit": "head" }, { "actual": 407.2, "check_id": "weekly_production_bridge", "expected": 407.094, "name": "Year-ago production plus head effect plus weight effect reconciles to current production", "passed": true, "residual": 0.106, "tolerance": 2.036, "unit": "million_lb" }, { "actual": 1776048029.31, "check_id": "net_trade_identity", "expected": 1776048029.31, "name": "Imports less exports equals net imports", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 0.01, "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent" } ], "status": "RECONCILED", "summary": { "beef_supply_change_pct": -0.5617, "dressed_weight_yoy_pct": 2.8868, "exports_ytd_change_pct": -17.2, "imports_ytd_change_pct": 9.9, "observation_count": 24, "reconciliation_count": 4, "reconciliation_pass_count": 4, "slaughter_yoy_pct": -3.3755, "source_count": 9, "source_ledger_row_count": 9, "status": "RECONCILED", "weight_offset_of_head_decline_pct": 82.64 }, "unit_policy": "No cattle-head-to-beef-pound conversion is made without an exposed observed weight or typed derivation." }, "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "change_alerts": [ { "alert_id": "later_fed_pipeline_tightening", "counter_evidence": "Current cattle on feed are +2.0% YoY.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "TIGHTENING_LATER", "horizon": "3-18 months", "invalidation": "Placements and feeder availability normalize, or the livestock-border constraint is formally removed.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "WATCH", "summary": "The later fed-cattle pipeline is tightening, but this is not a futures signal.", "triggers": [ { "label": "Placements -10.0% YoY", "metric_id": "cof_placements_head" }, { "label": "Southern livestock ports closed", "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports" } ] }, { "alert_id": "weight_offsets_head_decline", "counter_evidence": "Reported weekly beef production remains -0.6% YoY.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "MEAT_CUSHION", "horizon": "current to 3 months", "invalidation": "Dressed weights stop offsetting lower head throughput.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "ACTIVE", "summary": "Heavier carcasses are replacing part of the beef tonnage lost to lower slaughter.", "triggers": [ { "label": "Slaughter -3.4% YoY", "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head" }, { "label": "Dressed weight +2.9% YoY", "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs" } ] }, { "alert_id": "trade_cushions_domestic_availability", "counter_evidence": "Product mix and imported lean are not fully interchangeable with Choice fed-beef cuts.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "DOMESTIC_AVAILABILITY_CUSHION", "horizon": "current to 6 months", "invalidation": "Imports reverse lower and exports recover enough to remove the net availability cushion.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "ACTIVE", "summary": "Trade flows are cushioning domestic beef availability despite tighter cattle head counts.", "triggers": [ { "label": "YTD imports +9.9%", "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe" }, { "label": "YTD exports -17.2%", "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe" } ] }, { "alert_id": "processing_margin_pressure", "counter_evidence": "The CEI proxy is not company net income and plant-level economics vary.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "CAPACITY_RATIONALIZATION_RISK", "horizon": "current to 6 months", "invalidation": "Gross spreads recover persistently without a capacity reduction.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "WATCH", "summary": "Negative standardized packer spread and changing cash leverage keep capacity rationalization risk active.", "triggers": [ { "label": "CEI spread -5.26/cwt", "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass" }, { "label": "Cash weekly change -7.14/cwt", "metric_id": "blended_live_cash" } ] } ], "composer_contract": { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "composer_version": "alpha.structural_radar.composer.v2.0.0", "decision_effect": "NONE", "max_points": 0, "mode": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "conditional_contract_estimates": { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "contract_estimates": [ { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 245.4, 250.825 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 248.425, "contract_role": "near", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-06-19T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d1", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": 0.374873, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-22" }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, 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246.75, "predicted_response_pct": 0.765928, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-08", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.683544, 2.951848 ], "symbol": "LEQ6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 240.2, 264.075 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 249.55, "contract_role": "near", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-07-16T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d20", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "status": "OPEN_OR_NOT_YET_OBSERVABLE", "target_date": null }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 246.75, "predicted_response_pct": 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"NON_MUTATING_OS_ACCESS_EFFECTIVE_IDS", "radar_outputs_path": "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs", "required": true, "results": { "decision_output_writable": false, "radar_outputs_writable": true, "source_root_writable": false }, "source_root": "/opt/alpha_current", "status": "PASS" }, "source_root_read_only": "/opt/alpha_current", "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "wow_command_effect": "NONE", "write_allowlist": [ "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/data/structural_forecast_registry/records.jsonl", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs/structural_forecast_registry_status.json", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/state/structural_forecast_registry.lock" ], "writes_only_below_radar_root": true }, "schema_version": "alpha.structural_forecast_registry.v1", "scorecard": { "baseline": { "baseline_id": "ZERO_CHANGE_FIXED_CONTRACT_V1", "definition": "Zero report-response return from the pre-report fixed-contract close.", "frozen_at_issuance": true }, "by_contract_role": {}, "by_horizon": { "d1": { "baseline_mae_response_pct": null, "interval_80_coverage": null, "mae_skill_vs_zero_change_baseline": null, "model_directional_accuracy": null, "model_mae_response_pct": null, "model_mean_error_response_pct": null, "model_rmse_response_pct": null, "n_resolved": 0, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "unique_release_revision_count": 0, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, "d20": { "baseline_mae_response_pct": null, "interval_80_coverage": null, "mae_skill_vs_zero_change_baseline": null, "model_directional_accuracy": null, "model_mae_response_pct": null, "model_mean_error_response_pct": null, "model_rmse_response_pct": null, "n_resolved": 0, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "unique_release_revision_count": 0, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, "d40": { "baseline_mae_response_pct": null, "interval_80_coverage": null, "mae_skill_vs_zero_change_baseline": null, "model_directional_accuracy": null, "model_mae_response_pct": null, "model_mean_error_response_pct": null, "model_rmse_response_pct": null, "n_resolved": 0, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "unique_release_revision_count": 0, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, "d5": { "baseline_mae_response_pct": null, "interval_80_coverage": null, "mae_skill_vs_zero_change_baseline": null, "model_directional_accuracy": null, "model_mae_response_pct": null, "model_mean_error_response_pct": null, "model_rmse_response_pct": null, "n_resolved": 0, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "unique_release_revision_count": 0, "unique_report_release_count": 0 } }, "evaluation_population": "Only forecasts frozen while their target was genuinely open and later resolved from the same fixed contract.", "metric_policy": { "open_forecasts_scored": false, "primary": "MAE response percentage points relative to baseline MAE", "secondary": [ "RMSE", "mean error", "directional accuracy", "80% interval coverage" ] }, "overall": { "baseline_mae_response_pct": null, "interval_80_coverage": null, "mae_skill_vs_zero_change_baseline": null, "model_directional_accuracy": null, "model_mae_response_pct": null, "model_mean_error_response_pct": null, "model_rmse_response_pct": null, "n_resolved": 0, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "unique_release_revision_count": 0, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "profitability_claim": false, "schema_version": "alpha.structural_forecast_scorecard.v1" }, "status": "PASS", "warnings": [] }, "forecast_scorecard": { "baseline": "ZERO_CHANGE_FIXED_CONTRACT_V1", "baseline_name": "ZERO_CHANGE_FIXED_CONTRACT_V1", "breakdowns": [ { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d1", "label": "D1", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d5", "label": "D5", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d20", "label": "D20", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d40", "label": "D40", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 } ], "by_horizon": [ { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d1", "label": "D1", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d5", "label": "D5", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d20", "label": "D20", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d40", "label": "D40", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 } ], "calibration": [], "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "directional_accuracy": null, "forward_resolved_count": 0, "forward_resolved_forecast_count": 0, "forward_test_status": "OPEN_BOOK_NO_FORWARD_RESOLUTIONS", "interval_coverage": null, "mae": null, "mae_skill_vs_baseline": null, "matured_data_pending_count": 0, "mean_bias": null, "open_forecast_count": 0, "performance_status": "UNPROVEN", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "profitability_claim": false, "resolved_forecast_count": 0, "rmse": null, "schema_version": "alpha.structural_forecast_scorecard.v1", "skill_vs_baseline": null, "status": "NO_RESOLVED_FORWARD_FORECASTS", "unique_resolved_release_revision_count": 0, "unique_resolved_report_release_count": 0, "validation_mode": "IMMUTABLE_GENUINELY_FORWARD_OOS" }, "frozen_forecasts": [], "futures_implications": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESES", "generated_at_ct": "2026-07-13T05:50:27.374452-05:00", "headline": { "confidence": "HIGH", "dominant_stage": "placements_vs_meat_availability", "horizon": "current through 18 months", "state": "TIGHTENING_LATER_WITH_MEAT_CUSHIONS_NOW", "text": "The later fed-cattle pipeline is tightening while heavier carcasses and trade flows cushion beef availability now.", "what_changed": "No semantic structural change since the prior frozen vintage." }, "history": { "changed_metric_ids": [], "previous_fingerprint": "a5d11b02eb6afff364423e51e8ce89403af8fe6cbb38044c5bd7774ce7e1b39b", "semantic_changed": true, "vintage_count": 5, "vintage_recorded": true }, "live_trade_status": "DISABLED", "max_points": 0, "mode": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "model_card": { "baseline": "Expanding historical mean inside V2 walk-forward diagnostics; zero-change baseline in the immutable forward registry.", "calibration_policy": "No calibrated claim until at least 36 independent genuinely forward report releases and at least 10 unique releases per claimed horizon; correlated role-by-horizon cells and same-report revisions do not count as independent releases. 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"Expanding-window ridge regression with fixed-contract event responses", "model_version": "cof-fixed-contract-ridge-v2.1.0", "monitoring": { "baseline_relative_scorecard": true, "calibration_minimum_unique_report_releases": 36, "immutable_forecast_book": true, "open_outcomes_retained": true }, "owner": "Alpha Structural Radar research boundary", "prediction_population": "Highest-volume unexpired Live Cattle fixed contract and the next two listed expiries on the release date.", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "prohibited_uses": [ "WOW Command input", "official decision input", "live trading", "position sizing", "intrinsic fair-value claim" ], "promotion_criteria": [ "At least 36 independent genuinely forward report releases", "At least 10 unique report releases per claimed horizon", "Positive baseline-relative MAE skill with stable directional evidence", "Independent governance review; never automatic promotion" ], "promotion_gate_passed": false, "purpose": "Estimate a conditional 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"training_cutoff": "Strictly before each prediction release; every included label must also have completed before that release.", "uncertainty": "Residual 10th/90th-percentile response interval where enough walk-forward residuals exist.", "validation_method": "Expanding-window point-in-time walk-forward", "validation_protocol": "Expanding-window, point-in-time walk-forward evaluation against an expanding-mean diagnostic baseline." }, "module": "ALPHA_STRUCTURAL_RADAR_V1", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "previous_vintage_record_hash": "2961ee5ffdcb90e7617ddad816f5cec27cd173b0424325833f4969dda2a24f29", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "revision_ledger": [ { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_on_feed_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_placements_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_marketings_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_other_disappearance_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_less_than_600_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_600_699_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_700_799_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_800_899_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_900_999_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_1000_lbs_and_greater", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-03" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-03" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-03" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_head_count_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-03" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-03" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "blended_live_cash", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "tuesday_cutout_average_change_pct", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-07" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-04-01" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "intended_heifer_replacements", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-01-01" } ], "schema_version": "1.0.0", "semantic_fingerprint": "b0593acd04c4f8ae1abfc7af13858b6a87691ff1eba9406bc93dbc1e7aecfa93", "separation_contract": { "auto_promotion_path": false, "calls_decision_components": false, "official_decision_effect": "NONE", "radar_write_root": "/opt/alpha_structural_radar", "reads_decision_outputs": false, "source_root_read_only": "/opt/alpha_current", "wow_command_effect": "NONE", "write_allowlist": [ "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs/structural_radar_status.json", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs/structural_radar_history.json", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/data/structural_radar/vintages.jsonl", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/state/structural_radar.lock" ], "writes_decision_outputs": false }, "source_ledger": [ { "error": null, "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 23, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-06-18", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "c0a0124ede59df305ad669eb0827f9871e2f73830769bfdff31fc1510fabf231", "source_id": "USDA_NASS_COF", "source_module": "cattle_on_feed", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/cattle_on_feed_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-05", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "0fdbe0e6421b6dad597692f30dbf9e72a615499e40ede8178cc26789f85fa583", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_TRADE", "source_module": "import_exports", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/import_exports_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "business_release_lag": 0, "calendar_age_days": 2, "expected_report_date": "2026-07-10", "holiday_calendar_note": "Weekday-aware; USDA holiday exceptions may produce WATCH until the next release.", "reason": "Latest expected weekday USDA CEI report is present.", "release_cutoff_ct": "15:45", "report_date": "2026-07-10", "state": "PASS", "status": "PASS", "weekend_aware": true }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-10 after 15:30 CT", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "bfdf3450617b3f338741ec01732cd3c68162bf20932f833f2559264e012498b4", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_CEI", "source_module": "ALPHA_PACKER_ECONOMICS_V1", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/packer_economics_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-10", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "32aa4dfed1e79a990b59f5236f51ad175d128f9fc2d07875bb801675379b7d11", "source_id": "USDA_APHIS", "source_module": "animal_health", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/animal_health_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "pass_max_days": 2, "state": "PASS", "watch_max_days": 5 }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-10 daily", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "a5dcc2a14c92313cd716fb1e00647c8ad6fe40954378827aa12db6e089c9ceb3", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_CASH", "source_module": "cash_cattle", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/cash_cattle_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "state": "UNKNOWN" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-07", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "c5bcdbe0f506542c06ebbc7e562c080bb298453e7afe5363f585d5177b6f59c2", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_BOXED_TUESDAY", "source_module": "boxed_beef_tuesday_history", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/boxed_beef_tuesday_history.json", "upstream_status": null, "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-12T21:30:11", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-03", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "bb5b6dfb784c2856be7ce44b41aa8312a4688438b77d4e0a55abfb0c4b9c29af", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT", "source_module": "weekly_kill_weights", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/weekly_kill_weights.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "cadence": "Quarterly USDA ERS feeder supply", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-04-01", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "32d71256ffb42497325ea439db5ed6a00752be99019c9ab73562950ad87f581b", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_FEEDER_SUPPLY", "source_module": "ers_feeder_supply", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/ers_livestock_domestic_data/livestock-data-machine-readable-files/FeederCattleSuppliesOutsideFeedlots.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "DERIVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "cadence": "Annual USDA ERS herd replacement", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-01-01", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "281e3d55e23156459116f1b342105d36eb78c6d3295597ee52f60c846528960d", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_HERD_REPLACEMENT", "source_module": "ers_heifer_replacements", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/ers_livestock_domestic_data/livestock-data-machine-readable-files/heifersenteringherd.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" } ], "status": "PASS", "structural_futures_v2": { "cohort_timing_bridge": { "assumptions": { "contract_mapping": "Each possible market-ready day maps to the nearest still-unexpired Feb/Apr/Jun/Aug/Oct/Dec Live Cattle contract midpoint. Expiry uses the last weekday as an approximation and does not encode exchange holidays.", "days_on_feed": { "1000_lbs_and_greater": [ 50, 110 ], "600_699_lbs": [ 170, 230 ], "700_799_lbs": [ 140, 200 ], "800_899_lbs": [ 110, 170 ], "900_999_lbs": [ 80, 140 ], "less_than_600_lbs": [ 190, 250 ] }, "exposure_weighting": "Placement day and days-on-feed are modeled as independent discrete uniform assumptions, then convolved. These are scenario weights, not empirical probabilities.", "interpretation": "Head-equivalent exposure is a timing bridge, not deliverable supply, open interest, fair value, or a price forecast.", "placement_date_uncertainty": "Earliest uses activity-month start; latest uses activity-month end." }, "buckets": [ { "bucket_id": "less_than_600_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 209836.1, "delta_head_equivalent": -9836.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 219672.1, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.655738 }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 110163.9, "delta_head_equivalent": -5163.9, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 115327.9, "symbol": "LEG7", "window_day_share": 0.344262 } ], "current_head": 320000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 250, "minimum": 190 }, "delta_head": -15000, "delta_pct": -4.478, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-11-07", "latest": "2027-02-05" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-11-25", "p50": "2026-12-22", "p90": "2027-01-18", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 335000 }, { "bucket_id": "600_699_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 11549.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -1684.3, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 13233.7, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.048123 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 211189.8, "delta_head_equivalent": -30798.5, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 241988.4, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.879958 }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 17260.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -2517.2, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 19777.9, "symbol": "LEG7", "window_day_share": 0.07192 } ], "current_head": 240000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 230, "minimum": 170 }, "delta_head": -35000, "delta_pct": -12.727, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-10-18", "latest": "2027-01-16" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-11-05", "p50": "2026-12-02", "p90": "2026-12-29", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 275000 }, { "bucket_id": "700_799_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 183606.6, "delta_head_equivalent": -22950.8, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 206557.4, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.459016 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 216393.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -27049.2, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 243442.6, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.540984 } ], "current_head": 400000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 200, "minimum": 140 }, "delta_head": -50000, "delta_pct": -11.111, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-09-18", "latest": "2026-12-17" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-10-06", "p50": "2026-11-02", "p90": "2026-11-29", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 450000 }, { "bucket_id": "800_899_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 21366.5, "delta_head_equivalent": -3464.8, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 24831.3, "symbol": "LEQ6", "window_day_share": 0.048123 }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 382483.3, "delta_head_equivalent": -62024.3, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 444507.7, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.861449 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 40150.2, "delta_head_equivalent": -6510.8, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 46661.0, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.090428 } ], "current_head": 444000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 170, "minimum": 110 }, "delta_head": -72000, "delta_pct": -13.953, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-08-19", "latest": "2026-11-17" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-09-06", "p50": "2026-10-03", "p90": "2026-10-30", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 516000 }, { "bucket_id": "900_999_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 103278.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -2295.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 105573.8, "symbol": "LEQ6", "window_day_share": 0.459016 }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 121721.3, "delta_head_equivalent": -2704.9, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 124426.2, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.540984 } ], "current_head": 225000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 140, "minimum": 80 }, "delta_head": -5000, "delta_pct": -2.174, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-07-20", "latest": "2026-10-18" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-08-07", "p50": "2026-09-03", "p90": "2026-09-30", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 230000 }, { "bucket_id": "1000_lbs_and_greater", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-06", "current_head_equivalent": 2617.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -174.5, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 2792.2, "symbol": "LEM6", "window_day_share": 0.034902 }, { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 65600.2, "delta_head_equivalent": -4373.3, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 69973.6, "symbol": "LEQ6", "window_day_share": 0.874669 }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 6782.1, "delta_head_equivalent": -452.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 7234.3, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.090428 } ], "current_head": 75000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 110, "minimum": 50 }, "delta_head": -5000, "delta_pct": -6.25, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-06-20", "latest": "2026-09-18" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-07-08", "p50": "2026-08-04", "p90": "2026-08-31", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 80000 } ], "comparison": "SAME_ACTIVITY_MONTH_AS_RELEASED_YEAR_OVER_YEAR", "contracts": [ { "contract_month": "2026-06", "current_head_equivalent": 2617.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -174.5, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 2792.2, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEM6" }, { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 190245.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -10133.3, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 200378.6, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEQ6" }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 706142.8, "delta_head_equivalent": -89816.5, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 795959.3, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEV6" }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 677569.5, "delta_head_equivalent": -74194.6, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 751764.1, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEZ6" }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 127424.6, "delta_head_equivalent": -7681.1, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 135105.8, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEG7" } ], "latest_activity_month": "2026-05-01", "latest_release_date": "2026-06-18", "prior_year_activity_month": "2025-05-01", "prior_year_release_date": "2025-06-20", "reconciliations": [ { "actual": 1704000.0, "check_id": "latest_bucket_sum_to_placements", "expected": 1704000.0, "passed": true, "residual_head": 0.0, "tolerance_head": 1000.0 }, { "actual": 1886000.0, "check_id": "prior_bucket_sum_to_placements", "expected": 1886000.0, "passed": true, "residual_head": 0.0, "tolerance_head": 1000.0 }, { "actual": -182000.0, "check_id": "contract_exposure_delta_to_bucket_delta", "expected": -182000.0, "passed": true, "residual_head": 0.0, "tolerance_head": 1.0 } ], "status": "PASS" }, "contract_response_models": { "continuous_or_stitched_prices_used": false, "contract_estimates": [ { "cohort_timing_exposure": { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 190245.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -10133.3, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 200378.6, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEQ6" }, "contract_id": "LE-2026-08", "horizons": [ { "conditional_fair_value": 248.425, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 245.4, 250.825 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d1", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": 0.374873, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-22" }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.676151, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -0.548147, 1.653802 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 248.65, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 242.6, 254.025 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d5", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": -0.273556, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-26" }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.765928, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.683544, 2.951848 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 249.55, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 240.2, 264.075 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d20", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "predicted_response_pct": 1.131717, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -2.650467, 7.024054 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 251.75, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 242.55, 269.175 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d40", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "predicted_response_pct": 2.027405, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.702378, 9.086627 ], "status": "PASS" } ], "role": "near", "symbol": "LEQ6" }, { "cohort_timing_exposure": { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 706142.8, "delta_head_equivalent": -89816.5, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 795959.3, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEV6" }, "contract_id": "LE-2026-10", "horizons": [ { "conditional_fair_value": 241.825, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 239.2, 243.675 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d1", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": 0.531029, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-22" }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.721589, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -0.374333, 1.488104 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 242.075, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 236.45, 246.775 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d5", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": -0.322782, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-26" }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.81965, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.519832, 2.784357 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 242.9, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 233.525, 255.925 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d20", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "predicted_response_pct": 1.16672, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -2.742707, 6.594272 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 245.025, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 236.95, 261.5 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d40", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "predicted_response_pct": 2.053093, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.30899, 8.914597 ], "status": "PASS" } ], "role": "mid", "symbol": "LEV6" }, { "cohort_timing_exposure": { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 677569.5, "delta_head_equivalent": -74194.6, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 751764.1, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEZ6" }, "contract_id": "LE-2026-12", "horizons": [ { "conditional_fair_value": 240.8, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 238.65, 242.325 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d1", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": 0.585468, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-22" }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.697705, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -0.196348, 1.335889 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 241.175, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 235.65, 246.15 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d5", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": -0.230005, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-26" }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.857373, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.450258, 2.941915 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 241.675, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 234.8, 254.525 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d20", "latest_observed_outcome": { 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Later-date corrections are excluded from the report-response panel so they cannot be paired with an already-observed original-report return path; displaced originals are not guaranteed recoverable for every historical USDA correction.", "historical_original_corrections_complete": false, "latest_event_excluded_from_training": true, "model_gate_is_not_operational_gate": true, "numeric_forecast_policy": "No estimate is emitted with insufficient prior history; no model estimate affects WOW or decisions.", "point_in_time_release_timestamps": true, "price_reference_is_official_settlement": false, "price_reference_timestamp_retained": false, "price_rows_filtered_to_as_of_cutoff": true, "price_rows_unique_by_date_contract": true }, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "system_quality_audit": { "accountability_status": "PARTIAL", "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "critical_gates": { "decision_isolation_gate": true, "immutable_registry_gate": true, "no_operational_promotion_gate": true, 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}, { "criterion": "Base structural vintages parse strictly, checkpoint tail loss, and chain new semantic records", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 } ], "label": "Source provenance and semantic integrity", "status": "PASS", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "POINT_IN_TIME", "earned": 12.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Events and prices are filtered to the as-of cutoff", "max_points": 4.0, "passed": true, "points": 4.0 }, { "criterion": "Training labels complete before prediction and latest event is excluded", "max_points": 4.0, "passed": true, "points": 4.0 }, { "criterion": "As-released event timestamps are retained", "max_points": 4.0, "passed": true, "points": 4.0 }, { "criterion": "Daily price reference retains a final-bar timestamp", "max_points": 1.5, "passed": false, "points": 0 }, { "criterion": "Historical original/correction pairs are complete", "max_points": 1.5, "passed": false, "points": 0 } ], "label": "Point-in-time and leakage controls", "limitation": "Capped at 12/15: the daily panel lacks a retained final-bar timestamp and historical original/correction completeness is not guaranteed.", "status": "PARTIAL", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "RECONCILIATION", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "All base observations are typed and reconciliations recompute within explicit units/tolerances", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Placement cohort-to-contract reconciliations recompute within head tolerances", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Accounting and reconciliation", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 }, { "dimension_id": "CONTRACT_HORIZONS", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Fixed contracts are used without continuous stitching", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "A unique, fully estimated near/mid/deferred D1/D5/D20/D40 fixed-contract grid is present", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Contract and horizon specificity", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 }, { "dimension_id": "MODEL_GOVERNANCE", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Operational promotion is false", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 }, { "criterion": "Predictive edge remains explicitly unproven", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 }, { "criterion": "Calibration remains explicitly incomplete", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 }, { "criterion": "Pricing authority and execution points are zero", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 } ], "label": "Model governance without promotion leakage", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 }, { "dimension_id": "FORWARD_ACCOUNTABILITY", "earned": 9.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Append-only registry freeze hashes validate", "max_points": 2.0, "passed": true, "points": 2.0 }, { "criterion": "Prior sibling checkpoint detects single-file tail loss", "max_points": 1.0, "passed": true, "points": 1.0 }, { "criterion": "An external protected/WORM ledger anchor exists", "max_points": 1.0, "passed": false, "points": 0 }, { "criterion": "Forecast IDs are deterministic and issuance is deduplicated", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Open and matured-unresolved outcomes remain explicit and unscored", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "At least 36 independent forward report releases and 10 unique releases per claimed horizon are resolved", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": false, "points": 0 } ], "label": "Immutable forward forecast accountability", "limitation": "0 correlated forecast cells across 0 independent report releases are resolved. Same-report roles, horizons, and revisions do not inflate the independent-release threshold. The sibling checkpoint is best-effort and no external WORM anchor exists; accountability is partial and predictive profitability is not graded.", "status": "PARTIAL", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "OPERATIONAL_ISOLATION", "earned": 15.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Base radar has no decision or WOW effect", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Registry writes only below the sibling radar root and the required runtime permission probe passes", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "No live-trade use, auto-promotion, or execution points", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Operational and WOW Command isolation", "status": "PASS", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "TRANSPARENCY", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Complete model card states purpose, target, data, leakage controls, limitations, and governance", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Scorecard names a frozen baseline and baseline-relative primary metric", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Model-card and baseline transparency", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 } ], "eligibility": { "operational_promotion_eligible": false, "predictive_profitability_grade_eligible": false, "status": "ELIGIBLE_SYSTEM_QUALITY_ONLY", "system_quality_grade_eligible": true }, "explicit_exclusions": [ "predictive profitability", "tradable edge", "live execution quality", "risk-adjusted returns" ], "max_points": 0, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "profitability_claim": false, "rubric_id": "ALPHA_SYSTEM_QUALITY_NON_PROFITABILITY_V1", "schema_version": "alpha.system_quality_audit.v1", "scope": "SYSTEM_DESIGN_DATA_INTEGRITY_GOVERNANCE_AND_ACCOUNTABILITY", "score": { "earned": 91.0, "grade": "A-", "maximum": 100.0, "normalized_10": 9.1 }, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "theses": [ { "active_alert_ids": [ "later_fed_pipeline_tightening", "weight_offsets_head_decline", "trade_cushions_domestic_availability", "processing_margin_pressure" ], "confirmation": "Later marketings and slaughter tighten after placement cohorts roll forward while meat cushions fade.", "contradictions": [ "cof_on_feed_head", "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs" ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "cof_placements_head", "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "beef_exports_ytd_cwe" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "current through 18 months", "invalidation": "Placements recover or meat availability remains ample enough to prevent the expected tightening.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "PRIMARY_WORKING_HYPOTHESIS", "state": "TIGHTENING_LATER_WITH_MEAT_CUSHIONS_NOW", "thesis_id": "later_head_tightness_near_meat_cushion", "title": "Later fed-cattle tightness, buffered near-term beef availability" }, { "confirmation": "Weights, imports, dairy-beef supply, or weak exports continue replacing domestic fed-cattle tonnage.", "contradictions": [ "cof_placements_head", "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots" ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "current through 12 months", "invalidation": "Weights normalize and trade cushions reverse before placements recover.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "COMPETING_HYPOTHESIS", "thesis_id": "meat_availability_outlasts_head_shortage", "title": "Beef availability stays adequate longer than cattle head counts imply" }, { "confirmation": "Verified capacity exits or sustained shift reductions tighten the hook-to-cattle balance.", "contradictions": [ "No verified plant closure is inferred from margin data alone." ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "cof_marketings_head", "weekly_fi_slaughter_head" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "3-24 months", "invalidation": "Margins recover and observed capacity remains stable.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "COMPETING_HYPOTHESIS", "thesis_id": "capacity_rationalization_changes_leverage", "title": "Processing-capacity rationalization changes packer and feedyard leverage" } ], "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "validation": { "all_units_typed": true, "decision_effect": "NONE", "failed_reconciliations": [], "futures_pricing_model_active": false, "maximum_execution_points": 0, "missing_core_metrics": [], "missing_inputs": [], "numeric_forecast_policy": "No forward numeric value is emitted until an independently validated model supplies it.", "point_in_time_only": true, "promotion_gate_passed": false, "semantic_vintage_chain_validation": "PASS_WITH_LEGACY_PREFIX", "semantic_vintage_checkpoint_prior_state": "PASS", "semantic_vintage_checkpoint_validation": "PASS", "semantic_vintage_external_anchor_present": false, "semantic_vintage_parse_strict": true, "semantic_vintages": true, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "vintage_record_hash": "ddeae281a89d2128a03f9f4e0dcb5d17a2e496d2e5b12edef80fec1c1c78dc51", "warnings": [] }, { "balance_sheet": { "as_of": "2026-07-13", "periods": [ { "period": "Current feedlot inventory", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current fed-cattle inventory.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 25, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Cattle on feed", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_on_feed_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "feedlot_inventory", "unit": "head", "value": 11682000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": 2.0 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Incoming placement pipeline", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Incoming fed-cattle pipeline.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 25, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Monthly placements", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_placements_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "incoming_pipeline", "unit": "head", "value": 1704000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -10.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 25, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements under 600 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_less_than_600_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 320000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 25, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 600-699 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_600_699_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 240000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 25, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 700-799 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_700_799_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 400000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 25, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 800-899 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_800_899_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 444000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 25, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 900-999 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_900_999_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 225000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 25, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 1,000+ lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_1000_lbs_and_greater", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 75000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "USDA ERS-derived feeder-cattle reservoir outside feedlots; lower inventory can constrain future placements.", "freshness": { "cadence": "Quarterly USDA ERS feeder supply", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Feeder cattle outside feedlots", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_FEEDER_SUPPLY" ], "stage": "feeder_supply", "unit": "thousand_head", "value": 18776.97, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-04-01", "yoy_pct": 2.2631 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Fed-cattle outflow and meat production", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Fed-cattle outflow toward slaughter.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 25, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Monthly marketings", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_marketings_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "fed_outflow", "unit": "head", "value": 1551000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -12.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Non-marketing feedlot disappearance.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 25, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Other disappearance", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_other_disappearance_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "fed_outflow", "unit": "head", "value": 55000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -11.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Observed weekly cattle head throughput.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-13T21:30:04", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Weekly federally inspected slaughter", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "slaughter", "unit": "head", "value": 529000.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": -7.5175 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Pounds produced per slaughtered animal.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-13T21:30:04", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Average dressed weight", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "yield", "unit": "lb_per_head", "value": 889.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": 2.6559 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Observed weekly beef output combines head throughput and carcass yield.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-13T21:30:04", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Weekly beef production", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "meat_output", "unit": "million_lb", "value": 469.1, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": -5.0789 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Counterfactual pounds effect holding year-ago dressed weight constant.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-13T21:30:04", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Head-count contribution to weekly production change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_head_count_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "production_bridge", "unit": "million_lb", "value": -37.238, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Incremental pounds attributable to the dressed-weight change at current slaughter.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-13T21:30:04", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Dressed-weight contribution to weekly production change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "production_bridge", "unit": "million_lb", "value": 12.167, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": null } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Trade and domestic availability", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Imported beef adds to domestic carcass-weight-equivalent availability.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date beef imports", "metadata": { "ytd_comparable": true, "ytd_through_month": 5 }, "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 2754566570.58, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": 9.9 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Exported beef removes product from domestic availability while reflecting foreign demand.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date beef exports", "metadata": { "ytd_comparable": true, "ytd_through_month": 5 }, "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 978518541.27, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": -17.2 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Imports less exports; this is a product-availability measure, not a fed-cattle-equivalent count.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date net beef imports", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 1776048029.31, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": -1.7187, "economic_read": "Weekly wholesale movement; descriptive context only because its futures validation gate has not passed.", "freshness": { "state": "UNKNOWN" }, "label": "Tuesday Choice/Select average weekly change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "tuesday_cutout_average_change_pct", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_BOXED_TUESDAY" ], "stage": "wholesale_demand", "unit": "percent", "value": -1.7187, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-07", "yoy_pct": null } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Capacity, cash, herd, and policy context", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Standardized box-minus-live operating-spread proxy; not company net income and not a futures timing signal.", "freshness": { "business_release_lag": 0, "calendar_age_days": 0, "expected_report_date": "2026-07-13", "holiday_calendar_note": "Weekday-aware; USDA holiday exceptions may produce WATCH until the next release.", "reason": "Latest expected weekday USDA CEI report is present.", "release_cutoff_ct": "15:45", "report_date": "2026-07-13", "state": "PASS", "status": "PASS", "weekend_aware": true }, "label": "USDA CEI gross packer spread", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_CEI" ], "stage": "processing_economics", "unit": "usd_per_cwt_carcass", "value": -5.2491, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-13", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current operating status constrains or restores feeder-cattle inflow; duration and price impact are not assumed.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Southern livestock port status", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_APHIS" ], "stage": "biological_policy", "unit": "status", "value": "CLOSED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current cash transmission and feedyard/packer leverage context.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "pass_max_days": 2, "state": "PASS", "watch_max_days": 5 }, "label": "Blended live cash cattle", "metadata": { "change_vs_last_week_usd_per_cwt": -7.13 }, "metric_id": "blended_live_cash", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_CASH" ], "stage": "cash_transmission", "unit": "usd_per_cwt_live", "value": 247.95, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-13", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Replacement intentions inform herd rebuilding capacity; they do not guarantee retained females or calf-crop growth.", "freshness": { "cadence": "Annual USDA ERS herd replacement", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Intended heifer replacements", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "intended_heifer_replacements", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_HERD_REPLACEMENT" ], "stage": "breeding_herd", "unit": "thousand_head", "value": 8618.8, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-01-01", "yoy_pct": 0.361 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" } ], "reconciliations": [ { "actual": 1704000.0, "check_id": "cof_placement_buckets", "expected": 1704000.0, "name": "Placement weight buckets sum to placements", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 1000.0, "unit": "head" }, { "actual": 11682000.0, "check_id": "cof_head_flow", "expected": 11682000.0, "name": "Opening inventory plus placements less outflows equals closing inventory", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 1000.0, "unit": "head" }, { "actual": 469.1, "check_id": "weekly_production_bridge", "expected": 469.12899999999996, "name": "Year-ago production plus head effect plus weight effect reconciles to current production", "passed": true, "residual": -0.029, "tolerance": 2.3455000000000004, "unit": "million_lb" }, { "actual": 1776048029.31, "check_id": "net_trade_identity", "expected": 1776048029.31, "name": "Imports less exports equals net imports", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 0.01, "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent" } ], "status": "RECONCILED", "summary": { "beef_supply_change_pct": -5.0789, "dressed_weight_yoy_pct": 2.6559, "exports_ytd_change_pct": -17.2, "imports_ytd_change_pct": 9.9, "observation_count": 24, "reconciliation_count": 4, "reconciliation_pass_count": 4, "slaughter_yoy_pct": -7.5175, "source_count": 9, "source_ledger_row_count": 9, "status": "RECONCILED", "weight_offset_of_head_decline_pct": 32.67 }, "unit_policy": "No cattle-head-to-beef-pound conversion is made without an exposed observed weight or typed derivation." }, "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "change_alerts": [ { "alert_id": "later_fed_pipeline_tightening", "counter_evidence": "Current cattle on feed are +2.0% YoY.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "TIGHTENING_LATER", "horizon": "3-18 months", "invalidation": "Placements and feeder availability normalize, or the livestock-border constraint is formally removed.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "WATCH", "summary": "The later fed-cattle pipeline is tightening, but this is not a futures signal.", "triggers": [ { "label": "Placements -10.0% YoY", "metric_id": "cof_placements_head" }, { "label": "Southern livestock ports closed", "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports" } ] }, { "alert_id": "weight_offsets_head_decline", "counter_evidence": "Reported weekly beef production remains -5.1% YoY.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "MEAT_CUSHION", "horizon": "current to 3 months", "invalidation": "Dressed weights stop offsetting lower head throughput.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "ACTIVE", "summary": "Heavier carcasses are replacing part of the beef tonnage lost to lower slaughter.", "triggers": [ { "label": "Slaughter -7.5% YoY", "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head" }, { "label": "Dressed weight +2.7% YoY", "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs" } ] }, { "alert_id": "trade_cushions_domestic_availability", "counter_evidence": "Product mix and imported lean are not fully interchangeable with Choice fed-beef cuts.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "DOMESTIC_AVAILABILITY_CUSHION", "horizon": "current to 6 months", "invalidation": "Imports reverse lower and exports recover enough to remove the net availability cushion.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "ACTIVE", "summary": "Trade flows are cushioning domestic beef availability despite tighter cattle head counts.", "triggers": [ { "label": "YTD imports +9.9%", "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe" }, { "label": "YTD exports -17.2%", "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe" } ] }, { "alert_id": "processing_margin_pressure", "counter_evidence": "The CEI proxy is not company net income and plant-level economics vary.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "CAPACITY_RATIONALIZATION_RISK", "horizon": "current to 6 months", "invalidation": "Gross spreads recover persistently without a capacity reduction.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "WATCH", "summary": "Negative standardized packer spread and changing cash leverage keep capacity rationalization risk active.", "triggers": [ { "label": "CEI spread -5.25/cwt", "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass" }, { "label": "Cash weekly change -7.13/cwt", "metric_id": "blended_live_cash" } ] } ], "composer_contract": { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "composer_version": "alpha.structural_radar.composer.v2.0.0", "decision_effect": "NONE", "max_points": 0, "mode": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "conditional_contract_estimates": { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "contract_estimates": [ { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 245.4, 250.825 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 248.425, "contract_role": "near", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-06-19T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d1", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": 0.374873, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-22" }, 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false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 246.75, "predicted_response_pct": 0.765928, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-08", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.683544, 2.951848 ], "symbol": "LEQ6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 240.2, 264.075 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 249.55, "contract_role": "near", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-07-16T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d20", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "status": "OPEN_OR_NOT_YET_OBSERVABLE", "target_date": null }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 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"LEZ6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" } ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "definition": "Conditional fixed-contract COF report-response estimates, never intrinsic fair value or trade instructions.", "max_points": 0, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "schema_version": "alpha.conditional_contract_estimates.v1", "status": "RESEARCH_ONLY", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "decision_use": "CONTEXT", "errors": [], "extension_fields": [ "calibration_status", "composer_contract", "conditional_contract_estimates", "fair_values", "forecast_book", "forecast_registry", "forecast_scorecard", "frozen_forecasts", "model_card", "operational_promotion_gate_passed", "predictive_edge_status", "pricing_authority", "structural_futures_v2", "system_quality_audit" ], "fair_values": [ { "as_of_price": 246.75, "contract": "LEQ6", "decision_effect": "NONE", "edge_pct": 0.676151, "estimate_type": 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"matured_data_pending_count": 0, "max_points": 0, "model_card": { "baseline": "Expanding historical mean inside V2 walk-forward diagnostics; zero-change baseline in the immutable forward registry.", "calibration_policy": "No calibrated claim until at least 36 independent genuinely forward report releases and at least 10 unique releases per claimed horizon; correlated role-by-horizon cells and same-report revisions do not count as independent releases. 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"training_cutoff": "Strictly before each prediction release; every included label must also have completed before that release.", "uncertainty": "Residual 10th/90th-percentile response interval where enough walk-forward residuals exist.", "validation_method": "Expanding-window point-in-time walk-forward", "validation_protocol": "Expanding-window, point-in-time walk-forward evaluation against an expanding-mean diagnostic baseline." }, "module": "ALPHA_STRUCTURAL_RADAR_V1", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "previous_vintage_record_hash": "ddeae281a89d2128a03f9f4e0dcb5d17a2e496d2e5b12edef80fec1c1c78dc51", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "revision_ledger": [ { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_on_feed_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_placements_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_marketings_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_other_disappearance_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_less_than_600_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_600_699_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_700_799_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_800_899_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_900_999_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_1000_lbs_and_greater", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Period advanced from 2026-07-03 to 2026-07-10.", "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Period advanced from 2026-07-03 to 2026-07-10.", "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Period advanced from 2026-07-03 to 2026-07-10.", "metric_id": "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Period advanced from 2026-07-03 to 2026-07-10.", "metric_id": "weekly_head_count_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Period advanced from 2026-07-03 to 2026-07-10.", "metric_id": "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Period advanced from 2026-07-10 to 2026-07-13.", "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "vintage_date": "2026-07-13" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Period advanced from 2026-07-10 to 2026-07-13.", "metric_id": "blended_live_cash", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "vintage_date": "2026-07-13" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "tuesday_cutout_average_change_pct", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-07" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-04-01" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "intended_heifer_replacements", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-01-01" } ], "schema_version": "1.0.0", "semantic_fingerprint": "18ecaa5adb1b8e5b32837671571ae14f90159de5d7d4c04a0f516c4eac3ddd1b", "separation_contract": { "auto_promotion_path": false, "calls_decision_components": false, "official_decision_effect": "NONE", "radar_write_root": "/opt/alpha_structural_radar", "reads_decision_outputs": false, "source_root_read_only": "/opt/alpha_current", "wow_command_effect": "NONE", "write_allowlist": [ "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs/structural_radar_status.json", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs/structural_radar_history.json", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/data/structural_radar/vintages.jsonl", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/state/structural_radar.lock" ], "writes_decision_outputs": false }, "source_ledger": [ { "error": null, "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 25, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-06-18", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "0d98a5663b96c351151d8f494f26753dddd1dd822461744d7fb27d14a0de53d1", "source_id": "USDA_NASS_COF", "source_module": "cattle_on_feed", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/cattle_on_feed_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-05", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "9b4629e998a4b17c99fd19d6945b83fa41763f16ceb2aa06486649a4b3486bcc", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_TRADE", "source_module": "import_exports", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/import_exports_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "business_release_lag": 0, "calendar_age_days": 0, "expected_report_date": "2026-07-13", "holiday_calendar_note": "Weekday-aware; USDA holiday exceptions may produce WATCH until the next release.", "reason": "Latest expected weekday USDA CEI report is present.", "release_cutoff_ct": "15:45", "report_date": "2026-07-13", "state": "PASS", "status": "PASS", "weekend_aware": true }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-13 after 15:30 CT", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "114df6d4dc401d393938e33e1bdc642f2faab387c2b3cdd4bd01ac10ae418f9d", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_CEI", "source_module": "ALPHA_PACKER_ECONOMICS_V1", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/packer_economics_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-10", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "bc54607239fa7e93572524d435e7b87427ac6ac3e7ae23de1184284b3b61983f", "source_id": "USDA_APHIS", "source_module": "animal_health", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/animal_health_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "pass_max_days": 2, "state": "PASS", "watch_max_days": 5 }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-13 daily", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "2f724fa2e2e4a0dde0ad111dd1c3c66beee80bc42a06ffe7fd788b705a47dba3", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_CASH", "source_module": "cash_cattle", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/cash_cattle_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "state": "UNKNOWN" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-07", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "c5bcdbe0f506542c06ebbc7e562c080bb298453e7afe5363f585d5177b6f59c2", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_BOXED_TUESDAY", "source_module": "boxed_beef_tuesday_history", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/boxed_beef_tuesday_history.json", "upstream_status": null, "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-13T21:30:04", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-10", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "7453ce01c1aae16dd7cef40e59fec05e901d83fa6e7bd28cea107cb2ee491811", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT", "source_module": "weekly_kill_weights", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/weekly_kill_weights.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "cadence": "Quarterly USDA ERS feeder supply", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-04-01", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "32d71256ffb42497325ea439db5ed6a00752be99019c9ab73562950ad87f581b", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_FEEDER_SUPPLY", "source_module": "ers_feeder_supply", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/ers_livestock_domestic_data/livestock-data-machine-readable-files/FeederCattleSuppliesOutsideFeedlots.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "DERIVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "cadence": "Annual USDA ERS herd replacement", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-01-01", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "281e3d55e23156459116f1b342105d36eb78c6d3295597ee52f60c846528960d", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_HERD_REPLACEMENT", "source_module": "ers_heifer_replacements", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/ers_livestock_domestic_data/livestock-data-machine-readable-files/heifersenteringherd.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" } ], "status": "PASS", "structural_futures_v2": { "cohort_timing_bridge": { "assumptions": { "contract_mapping": "Each possible market-ready day maps to the nearest still-unexpired Feb/Apr/Jun/Aug/Oct/Dec Live Cattle contract midpoint. Expiry uses the last weekday as an approximation and does not encode exchange holidays.", "days_on_feed": { "1000_lbs_and_greater": [ 50, 110 ], "600_699_lbs": [ 170, 230 ], "700_799_lbs": [ 140, 200 ], "800_899_lbs": [ 110, 170 ], "900_999_lbs": [ 80, 140 ], "less_than_600_lbs": [ 190, 250 ] }, "exposure_weighting": "Placement day and days-on-feed are modeled as independent discrete uniform assumptions, then convolved. These are scenario weights, not empirical probabilities.", "interpretation": "Head-equivalent exposure is a timing bridge, not deliverable supply, open interest, fair value, or a price forecast.", "placement_date_uncertainty": "Earliest uses activity-month start; latest uses activity-month end." }, "buckets": [ { "bucket_id": "less_than_600_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 209836.1, "delta_head_equivalent": -9836.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 219672.1, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.655738 }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 110163.9, "delta_head_equivalent": -5163.9, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 115327.9, "symbol": "LEG7", "window_day_share": 0.344262 } ], "current_head": 320000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 250, "minimum": 190 }, "delta_head": -15000, "delta_pct": -4.478, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-11-07", "latest": "2027-02-05" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-11-25", "p50": "2026-12-22", "p90": "2027-01-18", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 335000 }, { "bucket_id": "600_699_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 11549.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -1684.3, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 13233.7, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.048123 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 211189.8, "delta_head_equivalent": -30798.5, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 241988.4, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.879958 }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 17260.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -2517.2, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 19777.9, "symbol": "LEG7", "window_day_share": 0.07192 } ], "current_head": 240000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 230, "minimum": 170 }, "delta_head": -35000, "delta_pct": -12.727, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-10-18", "latest": "2027-01-16" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-11-05", "p50": "2026-12-02", "p90": "2026-12-29", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 275000 }, { "bucket_id": "700_799_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 183606.6, "delta_head_equivalent": -22950.8, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 206557.4, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.459016 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 216393.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -27049.2, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 243442.6, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.540984 } ], "current_head": 400000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 200, "minimum": 140 }, "delta_head": -50000, "delta_pct": -11.111, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-09-18", "latest": "2026-12-17" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-10-06", "p50": "2026-11-02", "p90": "2026-11-29", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 450000 }, { "bucket_id": "800_899_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 21366.5, "delta_head_equivalent": -3464.8, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 24831.3, "symbol": "LEQ6", "window_day_share": 0.048123 }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 382483.3, "delta_head_equivalent": -62024.3, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 444507.7, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.861449 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 40150.2, "delta_head_equivalent": -6510.8, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 46661.0, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.090428 } ], "current_head": 444000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 170, "minimum": 110 }, "delta_head": -72000, "delta_pct": -13.953, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-08-19", "latest": "2026-11-17" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-09-06", "p50": "2026-10-03", "p90": "2026-10-30", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 516000 }, { "bucket_id": "900_999_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 103278.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -2295.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 105573.8, "symbol": "LEQ6", "window_day_share": 0.459016 }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 121721.3, "delta_head_equivalent": -2704.9, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 124426.2, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.540984 } ], "current_head": 225000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 140, "minimum": 80 }, "delta_head": -5000, "delta_pct": -2.174, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-07-20", "latest": "2026-10-18" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-08-07", "p50": "2026-09-03", "p90": "2026-09-30", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 230000 }, { "bucket_id": "1000_lbs_and_greater", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-06", "current_head_equivalent": 2617.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -174.5, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 2792.2, "symbol": "LEM6", "window_day_share": 0.034902 }, { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 65600.2, "delta_head_equivalent": -4373.3, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 69973.6, "symbol": "LEQ6", "window_day_share": 0.874669 }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 6782.1, "delta_head_equivalent": -452.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 7234.3, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.090428 } ], "current_head": 75000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 110, "minimum": 50 }, "delta_head": -5000, "delta_pct": -6.25, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-06-20", "latest": "2026-09-18" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-07-08", "p50": "2026-08-04", "p90": "2026-08-31", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 80000 } ], "comparison": "SAME_ACTIVITY_MONTH_AS_RELEASED_YEAR_OVER_YEAR", "contracts": [ { "contract_month": "2026-06", "current_head_equivalent": 2617.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -174.5, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 2792.2, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEM6" }, { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 190245.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -10133.3, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 200378.6, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEQ6" }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 706142.8, "delta_head_equivalent": -89816.5, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 795959.3, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEV6" }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 677569.5, "delta_head_equivalent": -74194.6, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 751764.1, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEZ6" }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 127424.6, "delta_head_equivalent": -7681.1, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 135105.8, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEG7" } ], "latest_activity_month": "2026-05-01", "latest_release_date": "2026-06-18", "prior_year_activity_month": "2025-05-01", "prior_year_release_date": "2025-06-20", "reconciliations": [ { "actual": 1704000.0, "check_id": "latest_bucket_sum_to_placements", "expected": 1704000.0, "passed": true, "residual_head": 0.0, "tolerance_head": 1000.0 }, { "actual": 1886000.0, "check_id": "prior_bucket_sum_to_placements", "expected": 1886000.0, "passed": true, "residual_head": 0.0, "tolerance_head": 1000.0 }, { "actual": -182000.0, "check_id": "contract_exposure_delta_to_bucket_delta", "expected": -182000.0, "passed": true, "residual_head": 0.0, "tolerance_head": 1.0 } ], "status": "PASS" }, "contract_response_models": { "continuous_or_stitched_prices_used": false, "contract_estimates": [ { "cohort_timing_exposure": { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 190245.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -10133.3, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 200378.6, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEQ6" }, "contract_id": "LE-2026-08", "horizons": [ { "conditional_fair_value": 248.425, 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"e66dad219c983fde988e04a569aa3adc0fc81d5e37247d97f8854df408c32f52" }, "gate_checks": { "beats_zero_return_baseline": true, "directional_accuracy_at_least_52pct": true, "interval_80_coverage_65_to_90pct": false, "mae_skill_at_least_5pct": false, "n_oos_at_least_36": true, "prediction_correlation_at_least_0_10": false }, "horizon": "d40", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "max_training_label_date": "2026-06-15", "min_train_events": 24, "model_version": "cof-fixed-contract-ridge-v2.1.0", "n_train": 75, "pre_report_close": 239.125, "predicted_response_pct": 1.958683, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-12", "prediction_release_date": "2026-06-18", "prediction_symbol": "LEZ6", "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "research_only": true, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -2.607012, 8.100815 ], "role": "deferred", "status": "PASS", "strictly_prior_training": true, "training_max_release_date": "2026-04-17", "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "walk_forward": { "baseline_mae_return_pct": 3.632719, "directional_accuracy": 0.64, "interval_80_coverage": 0.6, "interval_coverage_n": 35, "mae_return_pct": 3.544136, "mae_skill_vs_expanding_mean": 0.024385, "mae_skill_vs_zero_return": 0.107422, "n_oos": 50, "prediction_correlation": -0.02018, "zero_return_baseline_mae_pct": 3.970674 }, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" } ], "multiplicity_policy": "Twelve role-by-horizon candidates are exposed together; no familywise or FDR gate has passed, so operational promotion is prohibited.", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "statistical_gate_pass_count": 0, "target_definition": "Nth actual later RTH last-trade close versus same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close before the after-close COF release; these are not official CME settlements." }, "decision_effect": "NONE", "errors": [], "headline": "Placement cohorts are mapped to contract windows; price estimates remain conditional and research-only.", "live": false, "max_points": 0, "mode": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "module": "ALPHA_STRUCTURAL_FUTURES_V2", "point_in_time_events": { "as_of_cutoff_ct": "2026-07-13T16:50:11.220371-05:00", "consensus_surprise_available": false, "consensus_surprise_used": false, "event_count": 114, "feature_policy": "Only values printed in the as-released row plus activity-month season terms are features.", "latest_event": { "activity_month": "2026-05-01", "availability_rule": "Feature values become available only at the recorded USDA release timestamp.", "event_id": "795942", "observations": [ { "known_at_ct": "2026-06-18T14:00:00-05:00", "observation_id": "on_feed_yoy_delta_pp", "unit": "percentage_point", "value": 2.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED_RELEASE" }, { "known_at_ct": "2026-06-18T14:00:00-05:00", "observation_id": "placements_yoy_delta_pp", "unit": "percentage_point", "value": -10.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED_RELEASE" }, { "known_at_ct": "2026-06-18T14:00:00-05:00", "observation_id": "marketings_yoy_delta_pp", "unit": "percentage_point", "value": -12.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED_RELEASE" }, { "known_at_ct": "2026-06-18T14:00:00-05:00", "observation_id": "season_sin", "unit": "cyclical_component", "value": 0.5, "value_kind": "DERIVED_FROM_ACTIVITY_MONTH" }, { "known_at_ct": "2026-06-18T14:00:00-05:00", "observation_id": "season_cos", "unit": "cyclical_component", "value": -0.866025, "value_kind": "DERIVED_FROM_ACTIVITY_MONTH" } ], "provenance": { "source_sha256": "da477404f359a36b9d2b412f0dfdeaa4f3b05596c898c0655184124228fa9fbf", "source_url": "https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795942/cofd0626.txt" }, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "release_revision_id": "795942@2026-06-18T14:00:00-05:00", "release_timestamp_ct": "2026-06-18T14:00:00-05:00", "release_timestamp_kind": "RECORDED_SOURCE_TIMESTAMP", "research_only": true, "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false } }, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "research_only": true, "schema_version": "alpha.structural_futures.v2", "semantic_fingerprint": "f156ca973e366dbfd80ddb6f2c6e887a3ef6f7bd817bf6a093e76f10c368fc07", "source_ledger": [ { "path": "/opt/alpha_current/data/cattle_on_feed/report_events.csv", "read_only": true, "rows": 114, "sha256": "8c9fa84f4a2ce005f1a3e636a6a01f0051000c3b69de93c11e649ab753fa166b", "source_id": "USDA_NASS_COF_AS_RELEASED" }, { "path": "/opt/alpha_current/data/cattle_on_feed/le_fixed_ohlcv_1d.parquet", "read_only": true, "rows": 14243, "sha256": "c4db1c61e95d97e18a30ea6671179f6d55762146b4d55ab52085437c5dbd3217", "source_id": "DATABENTO_LE_FIXED_CONTRACT_DAILY" } ], "status": "PASS", "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "validation": { "all_training_labels_completed_before_prediction": true, "cohort_reconciliations_passed": true, "corrections_after_response_anchor_excluded": true, "data_status": { "event_rows": 114, "first_event_date": "2017-01-27", "fixed_contract_rows": 14243, "latest_event_date": "2026-06-18", "latest_event_price_reference_available": true, "price_first_date": "2020-01-02", "price_last_date": "2026-07-13", "response_panel_rows": 231 }, "events_filtered_to_as_of_cutoff": true, "historical_correction_policy": "Recorded same-date revisions are cutoff-aware. Later-date corrections are excluded from the report-response panel so they cannot be paired with an already-observed original-report return path; displaced originals are not guaranteed recoverable for every historical USDA correction.", "historical_original_corrections_complete": false, "latest_event_excluded_from_training": true, "model_gate_is_not_operational_gate": true, "numeric_forecast_policy": "No estimate is emitted with insufficient prior history; no model estimate affects WOW or decisions.", "point_in_time_release_timestamps": true, "price_reference_is_official_settlement": false, "price_reference_timestamp_retained": false, "price_rows_filtered_to_as_of_cutoff": true, "price_rows_unique_by_date_contract": true }, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "system_quality_audit": { "accountability_status": "PARTIAL", "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "critical_gates": { "decision_isolation_gate": true, "immutable_registry_gate": true, "no_operational_promotion_gate": true, "no_predictive_skill_claim_gate": true, "overall_health_gate": true, "point_in_time_gate": true, "reconciliation_gate": true, "runtime_permission_probe_gate": true, "source_alignment_and_price_freshness_gate": true, "wow_isolation_gate": true }, "critical_gates_passed": true, "decision_effect": "NONE", "dimensions": [ { "dimension_id": "SOURCE_PROVENANCE", "earned": 15.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "At least eight unique structural sources have explicit non-stale freshness, observed-at values, and fingerprints", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Every base ledger row is identified, fingerprinted, and read-only", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Both required V2 sources are nonempty, read-only, and SHA-256 fingerprinted", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Base COF and V2 latest releases align, and the fixed-contract panel is current", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Base structural vintages parse strictly, checkpoint tail loss, and chain new semantic records", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 } ], "label": "Source provenance and semantic integrity", "status": "PASS", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "POINT_IN_TIME", "earned": 12.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Events and prices are filtered to the as-of cutoff", "max_points": 4.0, "passed": true, "points": 4.0 }, { "criterion": "Training labels complete before prediction and latest event is excluded", "max_points": 4.0, "passed": true, "points": 4.0 }, { "criterion": "As-released event timestamps are retained", "max_points": 4.0, "passed": true, "points": 4.0 }, { "criterion": "Daily price reference retains a final-bar timestamp", "max_points": 1.5, "passed": false, "points": 0 }, { "criterion": "Historical original/correction pairs are complete", "max_points": 1.5, "passed": false, "points": 0 } ], "label": "Point-in-time and leakage controls", "limitation": "Capped at 12/15: the daily panel lacks a retained final-bar timestamp and historical original/correction completeness is not guaranteed.", "status": "PARTIAL", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "RECONCILIATION", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "All base observations are typed and reconciliations recompute within explicit units/tolerances", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Placement cohort-to-contract reconciliations recompute within head tolerances", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Accounting and reconciliation", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 }, { "dimension_id": "CONTRACT_HORIZONS", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Fixed contracts are used without continuous stitching", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "A unique, fully estimated near/mid/deferred D1/D5/D20/D40 fixed-contract grid is present", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Contract and horizon specificity", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 }, { "dimension_id": "MODEL_GOVERNANCE", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Operational promotion is false", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 }, { "criterion": "Predictive edge remains explicitly unproven", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 }, { "criterion": "Calibration remains explicitly incomplete", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 }, { "criterion": "Pricing authority and execution points are zero", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 } ], "label": "Model governance without promotion leakage", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 }, { "dimension_id": "FORWARD_ACCOUNTABILITY", "earned": 9.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Append-only registry freeze hashes validate", "max_points": 2.0, "passed": true, "points": 2.0 }, { "criterion": "Prior sibling checkpoint detects single-file tail loss", "max_points": 1.0, "passed": true, "points": 1.0 }, { "criterion": "An external protected/WORM ledger anchor exists", "max_points": 1.0, "passed": false, "points": 0 }, { "criterion": "Forecast IDs are deterministic and issuance is deduplicated", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Open and matured-unresolved outcomes remain explicit and unscored", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "At least 36 independent forward report releases and 10 unique releases per claimed horizon are resolved", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": false, "points": 0 } ], "label": "Immutable forward forecast accountability", "limitation": "0 correlated forecast cells across 0 independent report releases are resolved. Same-report roles, horizons, and revisions do not inflate the independent-release threshold. The sibling checkpoint is best-effort and no external WORM anchor exists; accountability is partial and predictive profitability is not graded.", "status": "PARTIAL", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "OPERATIONAL_ISOLATION", "earned": 15.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Base radar has no decision or WOW effect", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Registry writes only below the sibling radar root and the required runtime permission probe passes", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "No live-trade use, auto-promotion, or execution points", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Operational and WOW Command isolation", "status": "PASS", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "TRANSPARENCY", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Complete model card states purpose, target, data, leakage controls, limitations, and governance", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Scorecard names a frozen baseline and baseline-relative primary metric", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Model-card and baseline transparency", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 } ], "eligibility": { "operational_promotion_eligible": false, "predictive_profitability_grade_eligible": false, "status": "ELIGIBLE_SYSTEM_QUALITY_ONLY", "system_quality_grade_eligible": true }, "explicit_exclusions": [ "predictive profitability", "tradable edge", "live execution quality", "risk-adjusted returns" ], "max_points": 0, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "profitability_claim": false, "rubric_id": "ALPHA_SYSTEM_QUALITY_NON_PROFITABILITY_V1", "schema_version": "alpha.system_quality_audit.v1", "scope": "SYSTEM_DESIGN_DATA_INTEGRITY_GOVERNANCE_AND_ACCOUNTABILITY", "score": { "earned": 91.0, "grade": "A-", "maximum": 100.0, "normalized_10": 9.1 }, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "theses": [ { "active_alert_ids": [ "later_fed_pipeline_tightening", "weight_offsets_head_decline", "trade_cushions_domestic_availability", "processing_margin_pressure" ], "confirmation": "Later marketings and slaughter tighten after placement cohorts roll forward while meat cushions fade.", "contradictions": [ "cof_on_feed_head", "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs" ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "cof_placements_head", "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "beef_exports_ytd_cwe" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "current through 18 months", "invalidation": "Placements recover or meat availability remains ample enough to prevent the expected tightening.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "PRIMARY_WORKING_HYPOTHESIS", "state": "TIGHTENING_LATER_WITH_MEAT_CUSHIONS_NOW", "thesis_id": "later_head_tightness_near_meat_cushion", "title": "Later fed-cattle tightness, buffered near-term beef availability" }, { "confirmation": "Weights, imports, dairy-beef supply, or weak exports continue replacing domestic fed-cattle tonnage.", "contradictions": [ "cof_placements_head", "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots" ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "current through 12 months", "invalidation": "Weights normalize and trade cushions reverse before placements recover.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "COMPETING_HYPOTHESIS", "thesis_id": "meat_availability_outlasts_head_shortage", "title": "Beef availability stays adequate longer than cattle head counts imply" }, { "confirmation": "Verified capacity exits or sustained shift reductions tighten the hook-to-cattle balance.", "contradictions": [ "No verified plant closure is inferred from margin data alone." ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "cof_marketings_head", "weekly_fi_slaughter_head" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "3-24 months", "invalidation": "Margins recover and observed capacity remains stable.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "COMPETING_HYPOTHESIS", "thesis_id": "capacity_rationalization_changes_leverage", "title": "Processing-capacity rationalization changes packer and feedyard leverage" } ], "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "validation": { "all_units_typed": true, "decision_effect": "NONE", "failed_reconciliations": [], "futures_pricing_model_active": false, "maximum_execution_points": 0, "missing_core_metrics": [], "missing_inputs": [], "numeric_forecast_policy": "No forward numeric value is emitted until an independently validated model supplies it.", "point_in_time_only": true, "promotion_gate_passed": false, "semantic_vintage_chain_validation": "PASS_WITH_LEGACY_PREFIX", "semantic_vintage_checkpoint_prior_state": "PASS", "semantic_vintage_checkpoint_validation": "PASS", "semantic_vintage_external_anchor_present": false, "semantic_vintage_parse_strict": true, "semantic_vintages": true, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "vintage_record_hash": "6ff04e287091102a925387c3a60a6ef11c39f14c620c89630c7e57a7001ad391", "warnings": [] }, { "balance_sheet": { "as_of": "2026-07-13", "periods": [ { "period": "Current feedlot inventory", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current fed-cattle inventory.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 25, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Cattle on feed", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_on_feed_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "feedlot_inventory", "unit": "head", "value": 11682000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": 2.0 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Incoming placement pipeline", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Incoming fed-cattle pipeline.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 25, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Monthly placements", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_placements_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "incoming_pipeline", "unit": "head", "value": 1704000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -10.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 25, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements under 600 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_less_than_600_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 320000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 25, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 600-699 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_600_699_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 240000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 25, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 700-799 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_700_799_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 400000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 25, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 800-899 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_800_899_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 444000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 25, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 900-999 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_900_999_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 225000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 25, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 1,000+ lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_1000_lbs_and_greater", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 75000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "USDA ERS-derived feeder-cattle reservoir outside feedlots; lower inventory can constrain future placements.", "freshness": { "cadence": "Quarterly USDA ERS feeder supply", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Feeder cattle outside feedlots", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_FEEDER_SUPPLY" ], "stage": "feeder_supply", "unit": "thousand_head", "value": 18776.97, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-04-01", "yoy_pct": 2.2631 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Fed-cattle outflow and meat production", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Fed-cattle outflow toward slaughter.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 25, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Monthly marketings", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_marketings_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "fed_outflow", "unit": "head", "value": 1551000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -12.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Non-marketing feedlot disappearance.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 25, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Other disappearance", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_other_disappearance_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "fed_outflow", "unit": "head", "value": 55000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -11.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Observed weekly cattle head throughput.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-13T21:30:04", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Weekly federally inspected slaughter", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "slaughter", "unit": "head", "value": 529000.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": -7.5175 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Pounds produced per slaughtered animal.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-13T21:30:04", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Average dressed weight", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "yield", "unit": "lb_per_head", "value": 889.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": 2.6559 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Observed weekly beef output combines head throughput and carcass yield.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-13T21:30:04", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Weekly beef production", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "meat_output", "unit": "million_lb", "value": 469.1, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": -5.0789 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Counterfactual pounds effect holding year-ago dressed weight constant.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-13T21:30:04", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Head-count contribution to weekly production change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_head_count_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "production_bridge", "unit": "million_lb", "value": -37.238, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Incremental pounds attributable to the dressed-weight change at current slaughter.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-13T21:30:04", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Dressed-weight contribution to weekly production change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "production_bridge", "unit": "million_lb", "value": 12.167, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": null } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Trade and domestic availability", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Imported beef adds to domestic carcass-weight-equivalent availability.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date beef imports", "metadata": { "ytd_comparable": true, "ytd_through_month": 5 }, "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 2754566570.58, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": 9.9 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Exported beef removes product from domestic availability while reflecting foreign demand.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date beef exports", "metadata": { "ytd_comparable": true, "ytd_through_month": 5 }, "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 978518541.27, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": -17.2 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Imports less exports; this is a product-availability measure, not a fed-cattle-equivalent count.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date net beef imports", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 1776048029.31, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": -1.7187, "economic_read": "Weekly wholesale movement; descriptive context only because its futures validation gate has not passed.", "freshness": { "state": "UNKNOWN" }, "label": "Tuesday Choice/Select average weekly change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "tuesday_cutout_average_change_pct", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_BOXED_TUESDAY" ], "stage": "wholesale_demand", "unit": "percent", "value": -1.7187, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-07", "yoy_pct": null } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Capacity, cash, herd, and policy context", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Standardized box-minus-live operating-spread proxy; not company net income and not a futures timing signal.", "freshness": { "business_release_lag": 0, "calendar_age_days": 0, "expected_report_date": "2026-07-13", "holiday_calendar_note": "Weekday-aware; USDA holiday exceptions may produce WATCH until the next release.", "reason": "Latest expected weekday USDA CEI report is present.", "release_cutoff_ct": "15:45", "report_date": "2026-07-13", "state": "PASS", "status": "PASS", "weekend_aware": true }, "label": "USDA CEI gross packer spread", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_CEI" ], "stage": "processing_economics", "unit": "usd_per_cwt_carcass", "value": -5.2491, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-13", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current operating status constrains or restores feeder-cattle inflow; duration and price impact are not assumed.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Southern livestock port status", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_APHIS" ], "stage": "biological_policy", "unit": "status", "value": "CLOSED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current cash transmission and feedyard/packer leverage context.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "pass_max_days": 2, "state": "PASS", "watch_max_days": 5 }, "label": "Blended live cash cattle", "metadata": { "change_vs_last_week_usd_per_cwt": -7.13 }, "metric_id": "blended_live_cash", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_CASH" ], "stage": "cash_transmission", "unit": "usd_per_cwt_live", "value": 247.95, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-13", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Replacement intentions inform herd rebuilding capacity; they do not guarantee retained females or calf-crop growth.", "freshness": { "cadence": "Annual USDA ERS herd replacement", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Intended heifer replacements", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "intended_heifer_replacements", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_HERD_REPLACEMENT" ], "stage": "breeding_herd", "unit": "thousand_head", "value": 8618.8, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-01-01", "yoy_pct": 0.361 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" } ], "reconciliations": [ { "actual": 1704000.0, "check_id": "cof_placement_buckets", "expected": 1704000.0, "name": "Placement weight buckets sum to placements", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 1000.0, "unit": "head" }, { "actual": 11682000.0, "check_id": "cof_head_flow", "expected": 11682000.0, "name": "Opening inventory plus placements less outflows equals closing inventory", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 1000.0, "unit": "head" }, { "actual": 469.1, "check_id": "weekly_production_bridge", "expected": 469.12899999999996, "name": "Year-ago production plus head effect plus weight effect reconciles to current production", "passed": true, "residual": -0.029, "tolerance": 2.3455000000000004, "unit": "million_lb" }, { "actual": 1776048029.31, "check_id": "net_trade_identity", "expected": 1776048029.31, "name": "Imports less exports equals net imports", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 0.01, "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent" } ], "status": "RECONCILED", "summary": { "beef_supply_change_pct": -5.0789, "dressed_weight_yoy_pct": 2.6559, "exports_ytd_change_pct": -17.2, "imports_ytd_change_pct": 9.9, "observation_count": 24, "reconciliation_count": 4, "reconciliation_pass_count": 4, "slaughter_yoy_pct": -7.5175, "source_count": 9, "source_ledger_row_count": 9, "status": "RECONCILED", "weight_offset_of_head_decline_pct": 32.67 }, "unit_policy": "No cattle-head-to-beef-pound conversion is made without an exposed observed weight or typed derivation." }, "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "change_alerts": [ { "alert_id": "later_fed_pipeline_tightening", "counter_evidence": "Current cattle on feed are +2.0% YoY.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "TIGHTENING_LATER", "horizon": "3-18 months", "invalidation": "Placements and feeder availability normalize, or the livestock-border constraint is formally removed.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "WATCH", "summary": "The later fed-cattle pipeline is tightening, but this is not a futures signal.", "triggers": [ { "label": "Placements -10.0% YoY", "metric_id": "cof_placements_head" }, { "label": "Southern livestock ports closed", "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports" } ] }, { "alert_id": "weight_offsets_head_decline", "counter_evidence": "Reported weekly beef production remains -5.1% YoY.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "MEAT_CUSHION", "horizon": "current to 3 months", "invalidation": "Dressed weights stop offsetting lower head throughput.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "ACTIVE", "summary": "Heavier carcasses are replacing part of the beef tonnage lost to lower slaughter.", "triggers": [ { "label": "Slaughter -7.5% YoY", "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head" }, { "label": "Dressed weight +2.7% YoY", "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs" } ] }, { "alert_id": "trade_cushions_domestic_availability", "counter_evidence": "Product mix and imported lean are not fully interchangeable with Choice fed-beef cuts.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "DOMESTIC_AVAILABILITY_CUSHION", "horizon": "current to 6 months", "invalidation": "Imports reverse lower and exports recover enough to remove the net availability cushion.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "ACTIVE", "summary": "Trade flows are cushioning domestic beef availability despite tighter cattle head counts.", "triggers": [ { "label": "YTD imports +9.9%", "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe" }, { "label": "YTD exports -17.2%", "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe" } ] }, { "alert_id": "processing_margin_pressure", "counter_evidence": "The CEI proxy is not company net income and plant-level economics vary.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "CAPACITY_RATIONALIZATION_RISK", "horizon": "current to 6 months", "invalidation": "Gross spreads recover persistently without a capacity reduction.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "WATCH", "summary": "Negative standardized packer spread and changing cash leverage keep capacity rationalization risk active.", "triggers": [ { "label": "CEI spread -5.25/cwt", "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass" }, { "label": "Cash weekly change -7.13/cwt", "metric_id": "blended_live_cash" } ] } ], 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246.75, "predicted_response_pct": 1.131717, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-08", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -2.650467, 7.024054 ], "symbol": "LEQ6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 242.55, 269.175 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 251.75, "contract_role": "near", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-08-13T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d40", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "status": "OPEN_OR_NOT_YET_OBSERVABLE", "target_date": null }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 246.75, "predicted_response_pct": 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"current through 18 months", "state": "TIGHTENING_LATER_WITH_MEAT_CUSHIONS_NOW", "text": "The later fed-cattle pipeline is tightening while heavier carcasses and trade flows cushion beef availability now.", "what_changed": "No semantic structural change since the prior frozen vintage." }, "history": { "changed_metric_ids": [], "previous_fingerprint": "18ecaa5adb1b8e5b32837671571ae14f90159de5d7d4c04a0f516c4eac3ddd1b", "semantic_changed": true, "vintage_count": 7, "vintage_recorded": true }, "live_trade_status": "DISABLED", "max_points": 0, "mode": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "model_card": { "baseline": "Expanding historical mean inside V2 walk-forward diagnostics; zero-change baseline in the immutable forward registry.", "calibration_policy": "No calibrated claim until at least 36 independent genuinely forward report releases and at least 10 unique releases per claimed horizon; correlated role-by-horizon cells and same-report revisions do not count as independent releases. Current status remains NOT_CALIBRATED.", "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "data_sources": [ "USDA NASS COF as-released event rows", "Databento Live Cattle fixed-contract daily bars" ], "evaluation_metrics": [ "MAE", "baseline-relative MAE skill", "directional accuracy", "prediction correlation", "80% interval coverage" ], "fairness_scope": "Not applicable to people; monitor contract-month and market-regime coverage instead.", "feature_families": [ "USDA COF year-over-year release values", "activity-month seasonality" ], "features": [ "on_feed_yoy_delta_pp", "placements_yoy_delta_pp", "marketings_yoy_delta_pp", "activity_month_season_sin", "activity_month_season_cos" ], "governance": { "auto_promotion_path": false, "decision_effect": "NONE", "max_points": 0, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "horizon_definitions": { "d1": "1 actual later fixed-contract session(s)", "d20": "20 actual later fixed-contract session(s)", "d40": "40 actual later fixed-contract session(s)", "d5": "5 actual later fixed-contract session(s)" }, "horizons": [ "d1", "d5", "d20", "d40" ], "intended_uses": [ "research", "hypothesis tracking", "forward accountability", "contract-window comparison" ], "known_limitations": [ "No contemporaneous consensus-surprise feature", "Conditional report response is not all-factor intrinsic value", "Weekday target scheduling is conservative and is reconciled to actual fixed-contract sessions at resolution", "No demonstrated forward predictive edge yet", "No transaction costs, slippage, liquidity, or executable strategy economics" ], "leakage_controls": [ "As-released report values only", "Latest event excluded from training", "Training labels must complete before prediction", "Forward registry rejects horizons already mature at first issuance" ], "lifecycle_status": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "model_name": "Structural Futures V2 fixed-contract COF response", "model_type": "Expanding-window ridge regression with fixed-contract event responses", "model_version": "cof-fixed-contract-ridge-v2.1.0", "monitoring": { "baseline_relative_scorecard": true, "calibration_minimum_unique_report_releases": 36, "immutable_forecast_book": true, "open_outcomes_retained": true }, "owner": "Alpha Structural Radar research boundary", "prediction_population": "Highest-volume unexpired Live Cattle fixed contract and the next two listed expiries on the release date.", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "prohibited_uses": [ "WOW Command input", "official decision input", "live trading", "position sizing", "intrinsic fair-value claim" ], "promotion_criteria": [ "At least 36 independent genuinely forward report releases", "At least 10 unique report releases per claimed horizon", "Positive baseline-relative MAE skill with stable directional evidence", "Independent governance review; never automatic promotion" ], "promotion_gate_passed": false, "purpose": "Estimate a conditional fixed-contract price response after a Cattle on Feed release.", "reproducibility": "Each issuance freezes the implementation SHA-256, fitted ridge coefficients/normalization/penalty, exact training-row identity hash, event features, source hashes, and model-spec hash.", "schema_version": "alpha.model_card.structural_futures_v2.v1", "status": "RESEARCH_ONLY_UNVALIDATED", "target": "Nth actual later RTH last-trade close versus same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close before the after-close COF release; these are not official CME settlements.", "target_definition": "Nth actual later RTH last-trade close versus same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close before the after-close COF release; these are not official CME settlements.", "training": { "continuous_or_stitched_prices_used": false, "fixed_contract_only": true, "method": "Ridge regression fit only to fully labeled events available before each prediction timestamp.", "minimum_train_events": 24, "walk_forward_evaluation": true }, "training_cutoff": "Strictly before each prediction release; every included label must also have completed before that release.", "uncertainty": "Residual 10th/90th-percentile response interval where enough walk-forward residuals exist.", "validation_method": "Expanding-window point-in-time walk-forward", "validation_protocol": "Expanding-window, point-in-time walk-forward evaluation against an expanding-mean diagnostic baseline." }, "module": "ALPHA_STRUCTURAL_RADAR_V1", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "previous_vintage_record_hash": "6ff04e287091102a925387c3a60a6ef11c39f14c620c89630c7e57a7001ad391", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "revision_ledger": [ { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_on_feed_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_placements_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_marketings_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_other_disappearance_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_less_than_600_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_600_699_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_700_799_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_800_899_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_900_999_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_1000_lbs_and_greater", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_head_count_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-13" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "blended_live_cash", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-13" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "tuesday_cutout_average_change_pct", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-07" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-04-01" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "intended_heifer_replacements", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-01-01" } ], "schema_version": "1.0.0", "semantic_fingerprint": "edbc5c77d79d416fc516103de8e6bbbde7dcc3fc9643382d4ac59ce77c3462c4", "separation_contract": { "auto_promotion_path": false, "calls_decision_components": false, "official_decision_effect": "NONE", "radar_write_root": "/opt/alpha_structural_radar", "reads_decision_outputs": false, "source_root_read_only": "/opt/alpha_current", "wow_command_effect": "NONE", "write_allowlist": [ "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs/structural_radar_status.json", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs/structural_radar_history.json", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/data/structural_radar/vintages.jsonl", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/state/structural_radar.lock" ], "writes_decision_outputs": false }, "source_ledger": [ { "error": null, "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 25, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-06-18", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "d5da30f786642119fc903b5262484425501eacba668fe660406b29f672347998", "source_id": "USDA_NASS_COF", "source_module": "cattle_on_feed", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/cattle_on_feed_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-05", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "8c6106a7c12ff1719341aaf8defd6d7f0b04a65f5758b3d94a56117741f4d621", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_TRADE", "source_module": "import_exports", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/import_exports_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "business_release_lag": 0, "calendar_age_days": 0, "expected_report_date": "2026-07-13", "holiday_calendar_note": "Weekday-aware; USDA holiday exceptions may produce WATCH until the next release.", "reason": "Latest expected weekday USDA CEI report is present.", "release_cutoff_ct": "15:45", "report_date": "2026-07-13", "state": "PASS", "status": "PASS", "weekend_aware": true }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-13 after 15:30 CT", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "eb9db1c3b32d683e3185aa9a962d7f72c635b4883d7286ee1de5aef5cc01c085", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_CEI", "source_module": "ALPHA_PACKER_ECONOMICS_V1", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/packer_economics_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-10", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "fc3fcf062f399c17e4e3a5403047a34b3c3caf40e9a1ce997a6fd78ddfec5d9c", "source_id": "USDA_APHIS", "source_module": "animal_health", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/animal_health_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "pass_max_days": 2, "state": "PASS", "watch_max_days": 5 }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-13 daily", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "e9cf6afce28faf6b706546ae4265d3ef8b5babce7e5d49c02abd54afc7d31ae0", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_CASH", "source_module": "cash_cattle", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/cash_cattle_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "state": "UNKNOWN" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-07", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "c5bcdbe0f506542c06ebbc7e562c080bb298453e7afe5363f585d5177b6f59c2", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_BOXED_TUESDAY", "source_module": "boxed_beef_tuesday_history", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/boxed_beef_tuesday_history.json", "upstream_status": null, "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-13T21:30:04", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-10", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "7453ce01c1aae16dd7cef40e59fec05e901d83fa6e7bd28cea107cb2ee491811", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT", "source_module": "weekly_kill_weights", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/weekly_kill_weights.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "cadence": "Quarterly USDA ERS feeder supply", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-04-01", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "32d71256ffb42497325ea439db5ed6a00752be99019c9ab73562950ad87f581b", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_FEEDER_SUPPLY", "source_module": "ers_feeder_supply", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/ers_livestock_domestic_data/livestock-data-machine-readable-files/FeederCattleSuppliesOutsideFeedlots.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "DERIVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "cadence": "Annual USDA ERS herd replacement", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-01-01", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "281e3d55e23156459116f1b342105d36eb78c6d3295597ee52f60c846528960d", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_HERD_REPLACEMENT", "source_module": "ers_heifer_replacements", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/ers_livestock_domestic_data/livestock-data-machine-readable-files/heifersenteringherd.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" } ], "status": "PASS", "structural_futures_v2": { "cohort_timing_bridge": { "assumptions": { "contract_mapping": "Each possible market-ready day maps to the nearest still-unexpired Feb/Apr/Jun/Aug/Oct/Dec Live Cattle contract midpoint. Expiry uses the last weekday as an approximation and does not encode exchange holidays.", "days_on_feed": { "1000_lbs_and_greater": [ 50, 110 ], "600_699_lbs": [ 170, 230 ], "700_799_lbs": [ 140, 200 ], "800_899_lbs": [ 110, 170 ], "900_999_lbs": [ 80, 140 ], "less_than_600_lbs": [ 190, 250 ] }, "exposure_weighting": "Placement day and days-on-feed are modeled as independent discrete uniform assumptions, then convolved. These are scenario weights, not empirical probabilities.", "interpretation": "Head-equivalent exposure is a timing bridge, not deliverable supply, open interest, fair value, or a price forecast.", "placement_date_uncertainty": "Earliest uses activity-month start; latest uses activity-month end." }, "buckets": [ { "bucket_id": "less_than_600_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 209836.1, "delta_head_equivalent": -9836.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 219672.1, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.655738 }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 110163.9, "delta_head_equivalent": -5163.9, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 115327.9, "symbol": "LEG7", "window_day_share": 0.344262 } ], "current_head": 320000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 250, "minimum": 190 }, "delta_head": -15000, "delta_pct": -4.478, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-11-07", "latest": "2027-02-05" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-11-25", "p50": "2026-12-22", "p90": "2027-01-18", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 335000 }, { "bucket_id": "600_699_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 11549.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -1684.3, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 13233.7, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.048123 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 211189.8, "delta_head_equivalent": -30798.5, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 241988.4, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.879958 }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 17260.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -2517.2, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 19777.9, "symbol": "LEG7", "window_day_share": 0.07192 } ], "current_head": 240000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 230, "minimum": 170 }, "delta_head": -35000, "delta_pct": -12.727, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-10-18", "latest": "2027-01-16" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-11-05", "p50": "2026-12-02", "p90": "2026-12-29", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 275000 }, { "bucket_id": "700_799_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 183606.6, "delta_head_equivalent": -22950.8, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 206557.4, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.459016 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 216393.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -27049.2, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 243442.6, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.540984 } ], "current_head": 400000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 200, "minimum": 140 }, "delta_head": -50000, "delta_pct": -11.111, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-09-18", "latest": "2026-12-17" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-10-06", "p50": "2026-11-02", "p90": "2026-11-29", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 450000 }, { "bucket_id": "800_899_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 21366.5, "delta_head_equivalent": -3464.8, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 24831.3, "symbol": "LEQ6", "window_day_share": 0.048123 }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 382483.3, "delta_head_equivalent": -62024.3, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 444507.7, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.861449 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 40150.2, "delta_head_equivalent": -6510.8, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 46661.0, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.090428 } ], "current_head": 444000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 170, "minimum": 110 }, "delta_head": -72000, "delta_pct": -13.953, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-08-19", "latest": "2026-11-17" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-09-06", "p50": "2026-10-03", "p90": "2026-10-30", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 516000 }, { "bucket_id": "900_999_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 103278.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -2295.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 105573.8, "symbol": "LEQ6", "window_day_share": 0.459016 }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 121721.3, "delta_head_equivalent": -2704.9, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 124426.2, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.540984 } ], "current_head": 225000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": 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"value_kind": "OBSERVED_RELEASE" }, { "known_at_ct": "2026-06-18T14:00:00-05:00", "observation_id": "marketings_yoy_delta_pp", "unit": "percentage_point", "value": -12.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED_RELEASE" }, { "known_at_ct": "2026-06-18T14:00:00-05:00", "observation_id": "season_sin", "unit": "cyclical_component", "value": 0.5, "value_kind": "DERIVED_FROM_ACTIVITY_MONTH" }, { "known_at_ct": "2026-06-18T14:00:00-05:00", "observation_id": "season_cos", "unit": "cyclical_component", "value": -0.866025, "value_kind": "DERIVED_FROM_ACTIVITY_MONTH" } ], "provenance": { "source_sha256": "da477404f359a36b9d2b412f0dfdeaa4f3b05596c898c0655184124228fa9fbf", "source_url": "https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795942/cofd0626.txt" }, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "release_revision_id": "795942@2026-06-18T14:00:00-05:00", "release_timestamp_ct": "2026-06-18T14:00:00-05:00", "release_timestamp_kind": "RECORDED_SOURCE_TIMESTAMP", "research_only": true, "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false } }, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "research_only": true, "schema_version": "alpha.structural_futures.v2", "semantic_fingerprint": "f156ca973e366dbfd80ddb6f2c6e887a3ef6f7bd817bf6a093e76f10c368fc07", "source_ledger": [ { "path": "/opt/alpha_current/data/cattle_on_feed/report_events.csv", "read_only": true, "rows": 114, "sha256": "8c9fa84f4a2ce005f1a3e636a6a01f0051000c3b69de93c11e649ab753fa166b", "source_id": "USDA_NASS_COF_AS_RELEASED" }, { "path": "/opt/alpha_current/data/cattle_on_feed/le_fixed_ohlcv_1d.parquet", "read_only": true, "rows": 14243, "sha256": "c4db1c61e95d97e18a30ea6671179f6d55762146b4d55ab52085437c5dbd3217", "source_id": "DATABENTO_LE_FIXED_CONTRACT_DAILY" } ], "status": "PASS", "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "validation": { "all_training_labels_completed_before_prediction": true, "cohort_reconciliations_passed": true, "corrections_after_response_anchor_excluded": true, "data_status": { "event_rows": 114, "first_event_date": "2017-01-27", "fixed_contract_rows": 14243, "latest_event_date": "2026-06-18", "latest_event_price_reference_available": true, "price_first_date": "2020-01-02", "price_last_date": "2026-07-13", "response_panel_rows": 231 }, "events_filtered_to_as_of_cutoff": true, "historical_correction_policy": "Recorded same-date revisions are cutoff-aware. Later-date corrections are excluded from the report-response panel so they cannot be paired with an already-observed original-report return path; displaced originals are not guaranteed recoverable for every historical USDA correction.", "historical_original_corrections_complete": false, "latest_event_excluded_from_training": true, "model_gate_is_not_operational_gate": true, "numeric_forecast_policy": "No estimate is emitted with insufficient prior history; no model estimate affects WOW or decisions.", "point_in_time_release_timestamps": true, "price_reference_is_official_settlement": false, "price_reference_timestamp_retained": false, "price_rows_filtered_to_as_of_cutoff": true, "price_rows_unique_by_date_contract": true }, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "system_quality_audit": { "accountability_status": "PARTIAL", "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "critical_gates": { "decision_isolation_gate": true, "immutable_registry_gate": true, "no_operational_promotion_gate": true, 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}, { "criterion": "Base structural vintages parse strictly, checkpoint tail loss, and chain new semantic records", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 } ], "label": "Source provenance and semantic integrity", "status": "PASS", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "POINT_IN_TIME", "earned": 12.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Events and prices are filtered to the as-of cutoff", "max_points": 4.0, "passed": true, "points": 4.0 }, { "criterion": "Training labels complete before prediction and latest event is excluded", "max_points": 4.0, "passed": true, "points": 4.0 }, { "criterion": "As-released event timestamps are retained", "max_points": 4.0, "passed": true, "points": 4.0 }, { "criterion": "Daily price reference retains a final-bar timestamp", "max_points": 1.5, "passed": false, "points": 0 }, { "criterion": "Historical original/correction pairs are complete", "max_points": 1.5, "passed": false, "points": 0 } ], "label": "Point-in-time and leakage controls", "limitation": 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"Contract and horizon specificity", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 }, { "dimension_id": "MODEL_GOVERNANCE", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Operational promotion is false", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 }, { "criterion": "Predictive edge remains explicitly unproven", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 }, { "criterion": "Calibration remains explicitly incomplete", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 }, { "criterion": "Pricing authority and execution points are zero", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 } ], "label": "Model governance without promotion leakage", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 }, { "dimension_id": "FORWARD_ACCOUNTABILITY", "earned": 9.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Append-only registry freeze hashes validate", "max_points": 2.0, "passed": true, "points": 2.0 }, { "criterion": "Prior sibling checkpoint detects single-file tail loss", "max_points": 1.0, "passed": true, "points": 1.0 }, { "criterion": 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Same-report roles, horizons, and revisions do not inflate the independent-release threshold. The sibling checkpoint is best-effort and no external WORM anchor exists; accountability is partial and predictive profitability is not graded.", "status": "PARTIAL", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "OPERATIONAL_ISOLATION", "earned": 15.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Base radar has no decision or WOW effect", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Registry writes only below the sibling radar root and the required runtime permission probe passes", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "No live-trade use, auto-promotion, or execution points", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Operational and WOW Command isolation", "status": "PASS", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "TRANSPARENCY", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Complete model card states purpose, target, data, leakage controls, limitations, and governance", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": 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"later_fed_pipeline_tightening", "weight_offsets_head_decline", "trade_cushions_domestic_availability", "processing_margin_pressure" ], "confirmation": "Later marketings and slaughter tighten after placement cohorts roll forward while meat cushions fade.", "contradictions": [ "cof_on_feed_head", "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs" ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "cof_placements_head", "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "beef_exports_ytd_cwe" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "current through 18 months", "invalidation": "Placements recover or meat availability remains ample enough to prevent the expected tightening.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "PRIMARY_WORKING_HYPOTHESIS", "state": "TIGHTENING_LATER_WITH_MEAT_CUSHIONS_NOW", "thesis_id": "later_head_tightness_near_meat_cushion", "title": "Later fed-cattle tightness, buffered near-term beef availability" }, { "confirmation": "Weights, imports, dairy-beef supply, or weak exports continue replacing domestic fed-cattle tonnage.", "contradictions": [ "cof_placements_head", "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots" ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "current through 12 months", "invalidation": "Weights normalize and trade cushions reverse before placements recover.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "COMPETING_HYPOTHESIS", "thesis_id": "meat_availability_outlasts_head_shortage", "title": "Beef availability stays adequate longer than cattle head counts imply" }, { "confirmation": "Verified capacity exits or sustained shift reductions tighten the hook-to-cattle balance.", "contradictions": [ "No verified plant closure is inferred from margin data alone." ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "cof_marketings_head", "weekly_fi_slaughter_head" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "3-24 months", "invalidation": "Margins recover and observed capacity remains stable.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "COMPETING_HYPOTHESIS", "thesis_id": "capacity_rationalization_changes_leverage", "title": "Processing-capacity rationalization changes packer and feedyard leverage" } ], "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "validation": { "all_units_typed": true, "decision_effect": "NONE", "failed_reconciliations": [], "futures_pricing_model_active": false, "maximum_execution_points": 0, "missing_core_metrics": [], "missing_inputs": [], "numeric_forecast_policy": "No forward numeric value is emitted until an independently validated model supplies it.", "point_in_time_only": true, "promotion_gate_passed": false, "semantic_vintage_chain_validation": "PASS_WITH_LEGACY_PREFIX", "semantic_vintage_checkpoint_prior_state": "PASS", "semantic_vintage_checkpoint_validation": "PASS", "semantic_vintage_external_anchor_present": false, "semantic_vintage_parse_strict": true, "semantic_vintages": true, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "vintage_record_hash": "8c29ae3120868e98880e363a48919c70e675dc93819d0ae4c30dcf0432f0bc93", "warnings": [] }, { "balance_sheet": { "as_of": "2026-07-14", "periods": [ { "period": "Current feedlot inventory", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current fed-cattle inventory.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 26, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Cattle on feed", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_on_feed_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "feedlot_inventory", "unit": "head", "value": 11682000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": 2.0 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Incoming placement pipeline", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Incoming fed-cattle pipeline.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 26, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Monthly placements", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_placements_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "incoming_pipeline", "unit": "head", "value": 1704000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -10.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 26, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements under 600 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_less_than_600_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 320000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 26, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 600-699 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_600_699_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 240000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 26, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 700-799 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_700_799_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 400000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 26, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 800-899 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_800_899_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 444000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 26, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 900-999 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_900_999_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 225000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 26, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 1,000+ lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_1000_lbs_and_greater", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 75000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "USDA ERS-derived feeder-cattle reservoir outside feedlots; lower inventory can constrain future placements.", "freshness": { "cadence": "Quarterly USDA ERS feeder supply", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Feeder cattle outside feedlots", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_FEEDER_SUPPLY" ], "stage": "feeder_supply", "unit": "thousand_head", "value": 18776.97, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-04-01", "yoy_pct": 2.2631 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Fed-cattle outflow and meat production", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Fed-cattle outflow toward slaughter.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 26, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Monthly marketings", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_marketings_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "fed_outflow", "unit": "head", "value": 1551000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -12.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Non-marketing feedlot disappearance.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 26, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Other disappearance", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_other_disappearance_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "fed_outflow", "unit": "head", "value": 55000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -11.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Observed weekly cattle head throughput.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-14T21:30:04", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Weekly federally inspected slaughter", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "slaughter", "unit": "head", "value": 529000.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": -7.5175 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Pounds produced per slaughtered animal.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-14T21:30:04", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Average dressed weight", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "yield", "unit": "lb_per_head", "value": 889.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": 2.6559 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Observed weekly beef output combines head throughput and carcass yield.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-14T21:30:04", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Weekly beef production", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "meat_output", "unit": "million_lb", "value": 469.1, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": -5.0789 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Counterfactual pounds effect holding year-ago dressed weight constant.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-14T21:30:04", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Head-count contribution to weekly production change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_head_count_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "production_bridge", "unit": "million_lb", "value": -37.238, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Incremental pounds attributable to the dressed-weight change at current slaughter.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-14T21:30:04", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Dressed-weight contribution to weekly production change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "production_bridge", "unit": "million_lb", "value": 12.167, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": null } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Trade and domestic availability", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Imported beef adds to domestic carcass-weight-equivalent availability.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date beef imports", "metadata": { "ytd_comparable": true, "ytd_through_month": 5 }, "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 2754566570.58, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": 9.9 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Exported beef removes product from domestic availability while reflecting foreign demand.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date beef exports", "metadata": { "ytd_comparable": true, "ytd_through_month": 5 }, "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 978518541.27, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": -17.2 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Imports less exports; this is a product-availability measure, not a fed-cattle-equivalent count.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date net beef imports", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 1776048029.31, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": -1.7187, "economic_read": "Weekly wholesale movement; descriptive context only because its futures validation gate has not passed.", "freshness": { "state": "UNKNOWN" }, "label": "Tuesday Choice/Select average weekly change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "tuesday_cutout_average_change_pct", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_BOXED_TUESDAY" ], "stage": "wholesale_demand", "unit": "percent", "value": -1.7187, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-07", "yoy_pct": null } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Capacity, cash, herd, and policy context", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Standardized box-minus-live operating-spread proxy; not company net income and not a futures timing signal.", "freshness": { "business_release_lag": 0, "calendar_age_days": 0, "expected_report_date": "2026-07-14", "holiday_calendar_note": "Weekday-aware; USDA holiday exceptions may produce WATCH until the next release.", "reason": "Latest expected weekday USDA CEI report is present.", "release_cutoff_ct": "15:45", "report_date": "2026-07-14", "state": "PASS", "status": "PASS", "weekend_aware": true }, "label": "USDA CEI gross packer spread", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_CEI" ], "stage": "processing_economics", "unit": "usd_per_cwt_carcass", "value": -6.7873, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-14", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current operating status constrains or restores feeder-cattle inflow; duration and price impact are not assumed.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Southern livestock port status", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "source_ids": [ "USDA_APHIS" ], "stage": "biological_policy", "unit": "status", "value": "CLOSED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-14", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current cash transmission and feedyard/packer leverage context.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "pass_max_days": 2, "state": "PASS", "watch_max_days": 5 }, "label": "Blended live cash cattle", "metadata": { "change_vs_last_week_usd_per_cwt": null }, "metric_id": "blended_live_cash", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_CASH" ], "stage": "cash_transmission", "unit": "usd_per_cwt_live", "value": 244.49, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-14", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Replacement intentions inform herd rebuilding capacity; they do not guarantee retained females or calf-crop growth.", "freshness": { "cadence": "Annual USDA ERS herd replacement", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Intended heifer replacements", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "intended_heifer_replacements", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_HERD_REPLACEMENT" ], "stage": "breeding_herd", "unit": "thousand_head", "value": 8618.8, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-01-01", "yoy_pct": 0.361 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" } ], "reconciliations": [ { "actual": 1704000.0, "check_id": "cof_placement_buckets", "expected": 1704000.0, "name": "Placement weight buckets sum to placements", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 1000.0, "unit": "head" }, { "actual": 11682000.0, "check_id": "cof_head_flow", "expected": 11682000.0, "name": "Opening inventory plus placements less outflows equals closing inventory", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 1000.0, "unit": "head" }, { "actual": 469.1, "check_id": "weekly_production_bridge", "expected": 469.12899999999996, "name": "Year-ago production plus head effect plus weight effect reconciles to current production", "passed": true, "residual": -0.029, "tolerance": 2.3455000000000004, "unit": "million_lb" }, { "actual": 1776048029.31, "check_id": "net_trade_identity", "expected": 1776048029.31, "name": "Imports less exports equals net imports", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 0.01, "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent" } ], "status": "RECONCILED", "summary": { "beef_supply_change_pct": -5.0789, "dressed_weight_yoy_pct": 2.6559, "exports_ytd_change_pct": -17.2, "imports_ytd_change_pct": 9.9, "observation_count": 24, "reconciliation_count": 4, "reconciliation_pass_count": 4, "slaughter_yoy_pct": -7.5175, "source_count": 9, "source_ledger_row_count": 9, "status": "RECONCILED", "weight_offset_of_head_decline_pct": 32.67 }, "unit_policy": "No cattle-head-to-beef-pound conversion is made without an exposed observed weight or typed derivation." }, "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "change_alerts": [ { "alert_id": "later_fed_pipeline_tightening", "counter_evidence": "Current cattle on feed are +2.0% YoY.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "TIGHTENING_LATER", "horizon": "3-18 months", "invalidation": "Placements and feeder availability normalize, or the livestock-border constraint is formally removed.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "WATCH", "summary": "The later fed-cattle pipeline is tightening, but this is not a futures signal.", "triggers": [ { "label": "Placements -10.0% YoY", "metric_id": "cof_placements_head" }, { "label": "Southern livestock ports closed", "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports" } ] }, { "alert_id": "weight_offsets_head_decline", "counter_evidence": "Reported weekly beef production remains -5.1% YoY.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "MEAT_CUSHION", "horizon": "current to 3 months", "invalidation": "Dressed weights stop offsetting lower head throughput.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "ACTIVE", "summary": "Heavier carcasses are replacing part of the beef tonnage lost to lower slaughter.", "triggers": [ { "label": "Slaughter -7.5% YoY", "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head" }, { "label": "Dressed weight +2.7% YoY", "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs" } ] }, { "alert_id": "trade_cushions_domestic_availability", "counter_evidence": "Product mix and imported lean are not fully interchangeable with Choice fed-beef cuts.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "DOMESTIC_AVAILABILITY_CUSHION", "horizon": "current to 6 months", "invalidation": "Imports reverse lower and exports recover enough to remove the net availability cushion.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "ACTIVE", "summary": "Trade flows are cushioning domestic beef availability despite tighter cattle head counts.", "triggers": [ { "label": "YTD imports +9.9%", "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe" }, { "label": "YTD exports -17.2%", "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe" } ] } ], "composer_contract": { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "composer_version": "alpha.structural_radar.composer.v2.0.0", "decision_effect": "NONE", "max_points": 0, "mode": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "conditional_contract_estimates": { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "contract_estimates": [ { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 245.4, 250.825 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 248.425, "contract_role": "near", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", 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"NON_MUTATING_OS_ACCESS_EFFECTIVE_IDS", "radar_outputs_path": "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs", "required": true, "results": { "decision_output_writable": false, "radar_outputs_writable": true, "source_root_writable": false }, "source_root": "/opt/alpha_current", "status": "PASS" }, "source_root_read_only": "/opt/alpha_current", "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "wow_command_effect": "NONE", "write_allowlist": [ "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/data/structural_forecast_registry/records.jsonl", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs/structural_forecast_registry_status.json", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/state/structural_forecast_registry.lock" ], "writes_only_below_radar_root": true }, "schema_version": "alpha.structural_forecast_registry.v1", "scorecard": { "baseline": { "baseline_id": "ZERO_CHANGE_FIXED_CONTRACT_V1", "definition": "Zero report-response return from the pre-report fixed-contract close.", "frozen_at_issuance": true }, "by_contract_role": {}, "by_horizon": { "d1": { "baseline_mae_response_pct": null, "interval_80_coverage": null, "mae_skill_vs_zero_change_baseline": null, "model_directional_accuracy": null, "model_mae_response_pct": null, "model_mean_error_response_pct": null, "model_rmse_response_pct": null, "n_resolved": 0, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "unique_release_revision_count": 0, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, "d20": { "baseline_mae_response_pct": null, "interval_80_coverage": null, "mae_skill_vs_zero_change_baseline": null, "model_directional_accuracy": null, "model_mae_response_pct": null, "model_mean_error_response_pct": null, "model_rmse_response_pct": null, "n_resolved": 0, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "unique_release_revision_count": 0, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, "d40": { "baseline_mae_response_pct": null, "interval_80_coverage": null, "mae_skill_vs_zero_change_baseline": null, "model_directional_accuracy": null, "model_mae_response_pct": null, "model_mean_error_response_pct": null, "model_rmse_response_pct": null, "n_resolved": 0, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "unique_release_revision_count": 0, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, "d5": { "baseline_mae_response_pct": null, "interval_80_coverage": null, "mae_skill_vs_zero_change_baseline": null, "model_directional_accuracy": null, "model_mae_response_pct": null, "model_mean_error_response_pct": null, "model_rmse_response_pct": null, "n_resolved": 0, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "unique_release_revision_count": 0, "unique_report_release_count": 0 } }, "evaluation_population": "Only forecasts frozen while their target was genuinely open and later resolved from the same fixed contract.", "metric_policy": { "open_forecasts_scored": false, "primary": "MAE response percentage points relative to baseline MAE", "secondary": [ "RMSE", "mean error", "directional accuracy", "80% interval coverage" ] }, "overall": { "baseline_mae_response_pct": null, "interval_80_coverage": null, "mae_skill_vs_zero_change_baseline": null, "model_directional_accuracy": null, "model_mae_response_pct": null, "model_mean_error_response_pct": null, "model_rmse_response_pct": null, "n_resolved": 0, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "unique_release_revision_count": 0, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "profitability_claim": false, "schema_version": "alpha.structural_forecast_scorecard.v1" }, "status": "PASS", "warnings": [] }, "forecast_scorecard": { "baseline": "ZERO_CHANGE_FIXED_CONTRACT_V1", "baseline_name": "ZERO_CHANGE_FIXED_CONTRACT_V1", "breakdowns": [ { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d1", "label": "D1", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d5", "label": "D5", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d20", "label": "D20", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d40", "label": "D40", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 } ], "by_horizon": [ { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d1", "label": "D1", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d5", "label": "D5", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d20", "label": "D20", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d40", "label": "D40", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 } ], "calibration": [], "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "directional_accuracy": null, "forward_resolved_count": 0, "forward_resolved_forecast_count": 0, "forward_test_status": "OPEN_BOOK_NO_FORWARD_RESOLUTIONS", "interval_coverage": null, "mae": null, "mae_skill_vs_baseline": null, "matured_data_pending_count": 0, "mean_bias": null, "open_forecast_count": 0, "performance_status": "UNPROVEN", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "profitability_claim": false, "resolved_forecast_count": 0, "rmse": null, "schema_version": "alpha.structural_forecast_scorecard.v1", "skill_vs_baseline": null, "status": "NO_RESOLVED_FORWARD_FORECASTS", "unique_resolved_release_revision_count": 0, "unique_resolved_report_release_count": 0, "validation_mode": "IMMUTABLE_GENUINELY_FORWARD_OOS" }, "frozen_forecasts": [], "futures_implications": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESES", "generated_at_ct": "2026-07-14T16:50:47.684289-05:00", "headline": { "confidence": "HIGH", "dominant_stage": "placements_vs_meat_availability", "horizon": "current through 18 months", "state": "TIGHTENING_LATER_WITH_MEAT_CUSHIONS_NOW", "text": "The later fed-cattle pipeline is tightening while heavier carcasses and trade flows cushion beef availability now.", "what_changed": "Changed observations: packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass, southern_livestock_ports, blended_live_cash." }, "history": { "changed_metric_ids": [ "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "southern_livestock_ports", "blended_live_cash" ], "previous_fingerprint": "edbc5c77d79d416fc516103de8e6bbbde7dcc3fc9643382d4ac59ce77c3462c4", "semantic_changed": true, "vintage_count": 8, "vintage_recorded": true }, "live_trade_status": "DISABLED", "max_points": 0, "mode": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "model_card": { "baseline": "Expanding historical mean inside V2 walk-forward diagnostics; zero-change baseline in the immutable forward registry.", "calibration_policy": "No calibrated claim until at least 36 independent genuinely forward report releases and at least 10 unique releases per claimed horizon; correlated role-by-horizon cells and same-report revisions do not count as independent releases. Current status remains NOT_CALIBRATED.", "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "data_sources": [ "USDA NASS COF as-released event rows", "Databento Live Cattle fixed-contract daily bars" ], "evaluation_metrics": [ "MAE", "baseline-relative MAE skill", "directional accuracy", "prediction correlation", "80% interval coverage" ], "fairness_scope": "Not applicable to people; monitor contract-month and market-regime coverage instead.", "feature_families": [ "USDA COF year-over-year release values", "activity-month seasonality" ], "features": [ "on_feed_yoy_delta_pp", "placements_yoy_delta_pp", "marketings_yoy_delta_pp", "activity_month_season_sin", "activity_month_season_cos" ], "governance": { "auto_promotion_path": false, "decision_effect": "NONE", "max_points": 0, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "horizon_definitions": { "d1": "1 actual later fixed-contract session(s)", "d20": "20 actual later fixed-contract session(s)", "d40": "40 actual later fixed-contract session(s)", "d5": "5 actual later fixed-contract session(s)" }, "horizons": [ "d1", "d5", "d20", "d40" ], "intended_uses": [ "research", "hypothesis tracking", "forward accountability", "contract-window comparison" ], "known_limitations": [ "No contemporaneous consensus-surprise feature", "Conditional report response is not all-factor intrinsic value", "Weekday target scheduling is conservative and is reconciled to actual fixed-contract sessions at resolution", "No demonstrated forward predictive edge yet", "No transaction costs, slippage, liquidity, or executable strategy economics" ], "leakage_controls": [ "As-released report values only", "Latest event excluded from training", "Training labels must complete before prediction", "Forward registry rejects horizons already mature at first issuance" ], "lifecycle_status": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "model_name": "Structural Futures V2 fixed-contract COF response", "model_type": "Expanding-window ridge regression with fixed-contract event responses", "model_version": "cof-fixed-contract-ridge-v2.1.0", "monitoring": { "baseline_relative_scorecard": true, "calibration_minimum_unique_report_releases": 36, "immutable_forecast_book": true, "open_outcomes_retained": true }, "owner": "Alpha Structural Radar research boundary", "prediction_population": "Highest-volume unexpired Live Cattle fixed contract and the next two listed expiries on the release date.", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "prohibited_uses": [ "WOW Command input", "official decision input", "live trading", "position sizing", "intrinsic fair-value claim" ], "promotion_criteria": [ "At least 36 independent genuinely forward report releases", "At least 10 unique report releases per claimed horizon", "Positive baseline-relative MAE skill with stable directional evidence", "Independent governance review; never automatic promotion" ], "promotion_gate_passed": false, "purpose": "Estimate a conditional fixed-contract price response after a Cattle on Feed release.", "reproducibility": "Each issuance freezes the implementation SHA-256, fitted ridge coefficients/normalization/penalty, exact training-row identity hash, event features, source hashes, and model-spec hash.", "schema_version": "alpha.model_card.structural_futures_v2.v1", "status": "RESEARCH_ONLY_UNVALIDATED", "target": "Nth actual later RTH last-trade close versus same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close before the after-close COF release; these are not official CME settlements.", "target_definition": "Nth actual later RTH last-trade close versus same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close before the after-close COF release; these are not official CME settlements.", "training": { "continuous_or_stitched_prices_used": false, "fixed_contract_only": true, "method": "Ridge regression fit only to fully labeled events available before each prediction timestamp.", "minimum_train_events": 24, "walk_forward_evaluation": true }, "training_cutoff": "Strictly before each prediction release; every included label must also have completed before that release.", "uncertainty": "Residual 10th/90th-percentile response interval where enough walk-forward residuals exist.", "validation_method": "Expanding-window point-in-time walk-forward", "validation_protocol": "Expanding-window, point-in-time walk-forward evaluation against an expanding-mean diagnostic baseline." }, "module": "ALPHA_STRUCTURAL_RADAR_V1", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "previous_vintage_record_hash": "8c29ae3120868e98880e363a48919c70e675dc93819d0ae4c30dcf0432f0bc93", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "revision_ledger": [ { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_on_feed_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_placements_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_marketings_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_other_disappearance_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_less_than_600_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_600_699_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_700_799_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_800_899_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_900_999_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_1000_lbs_and_greater", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_head_count_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Period advanced from 2026-07-13 to 2026-07-14.", "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "vintage_date": "2026-07-14" }, { "detail": "Period advanced from 2026-07-10 to 2026-07-14.", "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "vintage_date": "2026-07-14" }, { "detail": "Period advanced from 2026-07-13 to 2026-07-14.", "metric_id": "blended_live_cash", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "vintage_date": "2026-07-14" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "tuesday_cutout_average_change_pct", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-07" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-04-01" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "intended_heifer_replacements", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-01-01" } ], "schema_version": "1.0.0", "semantic_fingerprint": "fd5bb06221c349b3ef985fb2d17280b49d6e1dfac5e68655fcad53d5fb769131", "separation_contract": { "auto_promotion_path": false, "calls_decision_components": false, "official_decision_effect": "NONE", "radar_write_root": "/opt/alpha_structural_radar", "reads_decision_outputs": false, "source_root_read_only": "/opt/alpha_current", "wow_command_effect": "NONE", "write_allowlist": [ "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs/structural_radar_status.json", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs/structural_radar_history.json", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/data/structural_radar/vintages.jsonl", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/state/structural_radar.lock" ], "writes_decision_outputs": false }, "source_ledger": [ { "error": null, "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 26, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-06-18", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "9dd33276a47d99fd71f23e433732deaeab6423bba94da3909140175994e3d4cc", "source_id": "USDA_NASS_COF", "source_module": "cattle_on_feed", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/cattle_on_feed_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-05", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "67aeccc82df1792e04f2dfd2eddbc95dff7819f1d4a946e80785798378751ac6", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_TRADE", "source_module": "import_exports", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/import_exports_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "business_release_lag": 0, "calendar_age_days": 0, "expected_report_date": "2026-07-14", "holiday_calendar_note": "Weekday-aware; USDA holiday exceptions may produce WATCH until the next release.", "reason": "Latest expected weekday USDA CEI report is present.", "release_cutoff_ct": "15:45", "report_date": "2026-07-14", "state": "PASS", "status": "PASS", "weekend_aware": true }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-14 after 15:30 CT", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "6c37f45c730b1edf9ac34591a88824608414451bd9f2dc0e4344b6eb0ce688a4", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_CEI", "source_module": "ALPHA_PACKER_ECONOMICS_V1", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/packer_economics_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-14", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "8989bc8e267f8aad9b6b90481ed882b8ddd960d6303fdf867194b1fbc5a830d3", "source_id": "USDA_APHIS", "source_module": "animal_health", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/animal_health_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "pass_max_days": 2, "state": "PASS", "watch_max_days": 5 }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-14 daily", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "829c5da9f384cc33f16ebf211eca85b1aded7458c8ef234fe35caa3375588056", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_CASH", "source_module": "cash_cattle", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/cash_cattle_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "state": "UNKNOWN" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-07", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "c5bcdbe0f506542c06ebbc7e562c080bb298453e7afe5363f585d5177b6f59c2", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_BOXED_TUESDAY", "source_module": "boxed_beef_tuesday_history", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/boxed_beef_tuesday_history.json", "upstream_status": null, "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-14T21:30:04", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-10", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "5e2cbe357b3b9b5b94559680f4c134767052204b9ae01ed10c48f152ff09abac", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT", "source_module": "weekly_kill_weights", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/weekly_kill_weights.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "cadence": "Quarterly USDA ERS feeder supply", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-04-01", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "32d71256ffb42497325ea439db5ed6a00752be99019c9ab73562950ad87f581b", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_FEEDER_SUPPLY", "source_module": "ers_feeder_supply", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/ers_livestock_domestic_data/livestock-data-machine-readable-files/FeederCattleSuppliesOutsideFeedlots.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "DERIVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "cadence": "Annual USDA ERS herd replacement", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-01-01", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "281e3d55e23156459116f1b342105d36eb78c6d3295597ee52f60c846528960d", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_HERD_REPLACEMENT", "source_module": "ers_heifer_replacements", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/ers_livestock_domestic_data/livestock-data-machine-readable-files/heifersenteringherd.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" } ], "status": "PASS", "structural_futures_v2": { "cohort_timing_bridge": { "assumptions": { "contract_mapping": "Each possible market-ready day maps to the nearest still-unexpired Feb/Apr/Jun/Aug/Oct/Dec Live Cattle contract midpoint. Expiry uses the last weekday as an approximation and does not encode exchange holidays.", "days_on_feed": { "1000_lbs_and_greater": [ 50, 110 ], "600_699_lbs": [ 170, 230 ], "700_799_lbs": [ 140, 200 ], "800_899_lbs": [ 110, 170 ], "900_999_lbs": [ 80, 140 ], "less_than_600_lbs": [ 190, 250 ] }, "exposure_weighting": "Placement day and days-on-feed are modeled as independent discrete uniform assumptions, then convolved. These are scenario weights, not empirical probabilities.", "interpretation": "Head-equivalent exposure is a timing bridge, not deliverable supply, open interest, fair value, or a price forecast.", "placement_date_uncertainty": "Earliest uses activity-month start; latest uses activity-month end." }, "buckets": [ { "bucket_id": "less_than_600_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 209836.1, "delta_head_equivalent": -9836.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 219672.1, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.655738 }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 110163.9, "delta_head_equivalent": -5163.9, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 115327.9, "symbol": "LEG7", "window_day_share": 0.344262 } ], "current_head": 320000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 250, "minimum": 190 }, "delta_head": -15000, "delta_pct": -4.478, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-11-07", "latest": "2027-02-05" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-11-25", "p50": "2026-12-22", "p90": "2027-01-18", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 335000 }, { "bucket_id": "600_699_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 11549.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -1684.3, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 13233.7, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.048123 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 211189.8, "delta_head_equivalent": -30798.5, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 241988.4, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.879958 }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 17260.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -2517.2, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 19777.9, "symbol": "LEG7", "window_day_share": 0.07192 } ], "current_head": 240000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 230, "minimum": 170 }, "delta_head": -35000, "delta_pct": -12.727, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-10-18", "latest": "2027-01-16" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-11-05", "p50": "2026-12-02", "p90": "2026-12-29", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 275000 }, { "bucket_id": "700_799_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 183606.6, "delta_head_equivalent": -22950.8, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 206557.4, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.459016 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 216393.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -27049.2, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 243442.6, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.540984 } ], "current_head": 400000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 200, "minimum": 140 }, "delta_head": -50000, "delta_pct": -11.111, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-09-18", "latest": "2026-12-17" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-10-06", "p50": "2026-11-02", "p90": "2026-11-29", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 450000 }, { "bucket_id": "800_899_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 21366.5, "delta_head_equivalent": -3464.8, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 24831.3, "symbol": "LEQ6", "window_day_share": 0.048123 }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 382483.3, "delta_head_equivalent": -62024.3, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 444507.7, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.861449 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 40150.2, "delta_head_equivalent": -6510.8, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 46661.0, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.090428 } ], "current_head": 444000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 170, "minimum": 110 }, "delta_head": -72000, "delta_pct": -13.953, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-08-19", "latest": "2026-11-17" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-09-06", "p50": "2026-10-03", "p90": "2026-10-30", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 516000 }, { "bucket_id": "900_999_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 103278.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -2295.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 105573.8, "symbol": "LEQ6", "window_day_share": 0.459016 }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 121721.3, "delta_head_equivalent": -2704.9, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 124426.2, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.540984 } ], "current_head": 225000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 140, "minimum": 80 }, "delta_head": -5000, "delta_pct": -2.174, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-07-20", "latest": "2026-10-18" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-08-07", "p50": "2026-09-03", "p90": "2026-09-30", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 230000 }, { "bucket_id": "1000_lbs_and_greater", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-06", "current_head_equivalent": 2617.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -174.5, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 2792.2, "symbol": "LEM6", "window_day_share": 0.034902 }, { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 65600.2, "delta_head_equivalent": -4373.3, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 69973.6, "symbol": "LEQ6", "window_day_share": 0.874669 }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 6782.1, "delta_head_equivalent": -452.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 7234.3, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.090428 } ], "current_head": 75000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 110, "minimum": 50 }, "delta_head": -5000, "delta_pct": -6.25, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-06-20", "latest": "2026-09-18" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-07-08", "p50": "2026-08-04", "p90": "2026-08-31", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 80000 } ], "comparison": "SAME_ACTIVITY_MONTH_AS_RELEASED_YEAR_OVER_YEAR", "contracts": [ { "contract_month": "2026-06", "current_head_equivalent": 2617.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -174.5, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 2792.2, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEM6" }, { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 190245.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -10133.3, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 200378.6, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEQ6" }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 706142.8, "delta_head_equivalent": -89816.5, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 795959.3, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEV6" }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 677569.5, "delta_head_equivalent": -74194.6, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 751764.1, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEZ6" }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 127424.6, "delta_head_equivalent": -7681.1, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 135105.8, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEG7" } ], "latest_activity_month": "2026-05-01", "latest_release_date": "2026-06-18", "prior_year_activity_month": "2025-05-01", "prior_year_release_date": "2025-06-20", "reconciliations": [ { "actual": 1704000.0, "check_id": "latest_bucket_sum_to_placements", "expected": 1704000.0, "passed": true, "residual_head": 0.0, "tolerance_head": 1000.0 }, { "actual": 1886000.0, "check_id": "prior_bucket_sum_to_placements", "expected": 1886000.0, "passed": true, "residual_head": 0.0, "tolerance_head": 1000.0 }, { "actual": -182000.0, "check_id": "contract_exposure_delta_to_bucket_delta", "expected": -182000.0, "passed": true, "residual_head": 0.0, "tolerance_head": 1.0 } ], "status": "PASS" }, "contract_response_models": { "continuous_or_stitched_prices_used": false, "contract_estimates": [ { "cohort_timing_exposure": { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 190245.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -10133.3, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 200378.6, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEQ6" }, "contract_id": "LE-2026-08", "horizons": [ { "conditional_fair_value": 248.425, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 245.4, 250.825 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d1", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": 0.374873, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-22" }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.676151, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -0.548147, 1.653802 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 248.65, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 242.6, 254.025 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d5", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": -0.273556, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-26" }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.765928, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.683544, 2.951848 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 249.55, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 240.2, 264.075 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d20", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "predicted_response_pct": 1.131717, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -2.650467, 7.024054 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 251.75, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 242.55, 269.175 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d40", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "predicted_response_pct": 2.027405, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.702378, 9.086627 ], "status": "PASS" } ], "role": "near", "symbol": "LEQ6" }, { "cohort_timing_exposure": { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 706142.8, "delta_head_equivalent": -89816.5, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 795959.3, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEV6" }, "contract_id": "LE-2026-10", "horizons": [ { "conditional_fair_value": 241.825, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 239.2, 243.675 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d1", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": 0.531029, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-22" }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.721589, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -0.374333, 1.488104 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 242.075, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 236.45, 246.775 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d5", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": -0.322782, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-26" }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.81965, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.519832, 2.784357 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 242.9, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 233.525, 255.925 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d20", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "predicted_response_pct": 1.16672, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -2.742707, 6.594272 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 245.025, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 236.95, 261.5 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d40", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "predicted_response_pct": 2.053093, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.30899, 8.914597 ], "status": "PASS" } ], "role": "mid", "symbol": "LEV6" }, { "cohort_timing_exposure": { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 677569.5, "delta_head_equivalent": -74194.6, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 751764.1, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEZ6" }, "contract_id": "LE-2026-12", "horizons": [ { "conditional_fair_value": 240.8, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 238.65, 242.325 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d1", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": 0.585468, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-22" }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.697705, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -0.196348, 1.335889 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 241.175, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 235.65, 246.15 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d5", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": -0.230005, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-26" }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.857373, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.450258, 2.941915 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 241.675, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 234.8, 254.525 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d20", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "predicted_response_pct": 1.06329, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.805714, 6.442563 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 243.8, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 232.9, 258.5 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d40", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "predicted_response_pct": 1.958683, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -2.607012, 8.100815 ], "status": "PASS" } ], "role": "deferred", "symbol": "LEZ6" } ], "contract_selection": "Highest-volume unexpired named fixed contract is near; the next two canonical year-month expiries are mid and deferred.", "curve_twist_model_active": false, "curve_twist_pricing_authority": "NONE", "fair_value_limitation": "Conditional report-response price is not an all-factor intrinsic fair value and cannot be promoted by this module.", "fixed_contract_only": true, "implementation_sha256": "122b355739d8f28522367bcb9b4097a897fa382cc2fbe049c89d448fb81c0d56", "known_limitations": [ "Historical price references are Databento RTH last-trade closes, not official CME settlements.", "Daily source rows do not retain the final bar timestamp; pre-release ordering relies on the scheduled 13:05 CT RTH close preceding the recorded 14:00 CT COF release.", "No licensed analyst-consensus surprise series is available; report features are printed YoY levels, not consensus surprises.", "Role, horizon, and regime heterogeneity remain research limitations; all operational gates stay closed." ], "latest_release_date": "2026-06-18", "model_version": "cof-fixed-contract-ridge-v2.1.0", "models": [ { "all_training_labels_available_before_prediction": true, "conditional_fair_value": 248.425, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 245.4, 250.825 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "fair_value_definition": "Same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close multiplied by the estimated report-response return; not an official settlement, intrinsic value, or promoted forecast.", "feature_names": [ "on_feed_yoy_delta_pp", "placements_yoy_delta_pp", "marketings_yoy_delta_pp", "season_sin", "season_cos" ], "fitted_artifact": { "artifact_sha256": "ffd04de9dff59a4eb2924288f5a0f4256cd185623649717df992aca5d4bbe5c0", "coefficients_intercept_first": [ 0.034126369519, 0.049050733065, -0.413444458786, 0.055169899391, 0.011581942112, -0.178955710517 ], "feature_means": [ -0.289473684211, -1.592105263158, -1.618421052632, 0.055684879047, 0.024552965839 ], "feature_names": [ "on_feed_yoy_delta_pp", "placements_yoy_delta_pp", "marketings_yoy_delta_pp", "season_sin", "season_cos" ], "feature_scales": [ 2.10772881928, 8.169548128293, 8.31607053156, 0.702573640668, 0.709003967233 ], "ridge_penalty": 4.0, "training_row_count": 76, "training_row_identity_sha256": "4bcbf38dd3ccf141d56232a2808a0eff1ee1acfb093c1f782bf771a4e993f807" }, "gate_checks": { "beats_zero_return_baseline": false, "directional_accuracy_at_least_52pct": false, "interval_80_coverage_65_to_90pct": true, "mae_skill_at_least_5pct": false, "n_oos_at_least_36": true, "prediction_correlation_at_least_0_10": true }, "horizon": "d1", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": 0.374873, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-22" }, "max_training_label_date": "2026-05-26", "min_train_events": 24, "model_version": "cof-fixed-contract-ridge-v2.1.0", "n_train": 76, "pre_report_close": 246.75, "predicted_response_pct": 0.676151, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-08", "prediction_release_date": "2026-06-18", "prediction_symbol": "LEQ6", "price_reference_kind": 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"An external protected/WORM ledger anchor exists", "max_points": 1.0, "passed": false, "points": 0 }, { "criterion": "Forecast IDs are deterministic and issuance is deduplicated", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Open and matured-unresolved outcomes remain explicit and unscored", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "At least 36 independent forward report releases and 10 unique releases per claimed horizon are resolved", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": false, "points": 0 } ], "label": "Immutable forward forecast accountability", "limitation": "0 correlated forecast cells across 0 independent report releases are resolved. Same-report roles, horizons, and revisions do not inflate the independent-release threshold. The sibling checkpoint is best-effort and no external WORM anchor exists; accountability is partial and predictive profitability is not graded.", "status": "PARTIAL", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "OPERATIONAL_ISOLATION", "earned": 15.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Base radar has no decision or WOW effect", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Registry writes only below the sibling radar root and the required runtime permission probe passes", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "No live-trade use, auto-promotion, or execution points", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Operational and WOW Command isolation", "status": "PASS", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "TRANSPARENCY", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Complete model card states purpose, target, data, leakage controls, limitations, and governance", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Scorecard names a frozen baseline and baseline-relative primary metric", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Model-card and baseline transparency", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 } ], "eligibility": { "operational_promotion_eligible": false, "predictive_profitability_grade_eligible": false, "status": "ELIGIBLE_SYSTEM_QUALITY_ONLY", "system_quality_grade_eligible": true }, "explicit_exclusions": [ "predictive profitability", "tradable edge", "live execution quality", "risk-adjusted returns" ], "max_points": 0, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "profitability_claim": false, "rubric_id": "ALPHA_SYSTEM_QUALITY_NON_PROFITABILITY_V1", "schema_version": "alpha.system_quality_audit.v1", "scope": "SYSTEM_DESIGN_DATA_INTEGRITY_GOVERNANCE_AND_ACCOUNTABILITY", "score": { "earned": 91.0, "grade": "A-", "maximum": 100.0, "normalized_10": 9.1 }, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "theses": [ { "active_alert_ids": [ "later_fed_pipeline_tightening", "weight_offsets_head_decline", "trade_cushions_domestic_availability" ], "confirmation": "Later marketings and slaughter tighten after placement cohorts roll forward while meat cushions fade.", "contradictions": [ "cof_on_feed_head", "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs" ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "cof_placements_head", "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "beef_exports_ytd_cwe" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "current through 18 months", "invalidation": "Placements recover or meat availability remains ample enough to prevent the expected tightening.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "PRIMARY_WORKING_HYPOTHESIS", "state": "TIGHTENING_LATER_WITH_MEAT_CUSHIONS_NOW", "thesis_id": "later_head_tightness_near_meat_cushion", "title": "Later fed-cattle tightness, buffered near-term beef availability" }, { "confirmation": "Weights, imports, dairy-beef supply, or weak exports continue replacing domestic fed-cattle tonnage.", "contradictions": [ "cof_placements_head", "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots" ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "current through 12 months", "invalidation": "Weights normalize and trade cushions reverse before placements recover.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "COMPETING_HYPOTHESIS", "thesis_id": "meat_availability_outlasts_head_shortage", "title": "Beef availability stays adequate longer than cattle head counts imply" }, { "confirmation": "Verified capacity exits or sustained shift reductions tighten the hook-to-cattle balance.", "contradictions": [ "No verified plant closure is inferred from margin data alone." ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "cof_marketings_head", "weekly_fi_slaughter_head" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "3-24 months", "invalidation": "Margins recover and observed capacity remains stable.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "COMPETING_HYPOTHESIS", "thesis_id": "capacity_rationalization_changes_leverage", "title": "Processing-capacity rationalization changes packer and feedyard leverage" } ], "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "validation": { "all_units_typed": true, "decision_effect": "NONE", "failed_reconciliations": [], "futures_pricing_model_active": false, "maximum_execution_points": 0, "missing_core_metrics": [], "missing_inputs": [], "numeric_forecast_policy": "No forward numeric value is emitted until an independently validated model supplies it.", "point_in_time_only": true, "promotion_gate_passed": false, "semantic_vintage_chain_validation": "PASS_WITH_LEGACY_PREFIX", "semantic_vintage_checkpoint_prior_state": "PASS", "semantic_vintage_checkpoint_validation": "PASS", "semantic_vintage_external_anchor_present": false, "semantic_vintage_parse_strict": true, "semantic_vintages": true, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "vintage_record_hash": "49e9d5bf5d7ca5e4704d051bb0b18cf334b1e5435f7d945b8b39f5ed4512b1b1", "warnings": [] }, { "balance_sheet": { "as_of": "2026-07-14", "periods": [ { "period": "Current feedlot inventory", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current fed-cattle inventory.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 26, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Cattle on feed", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_on_feed_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "feedlot_inventory", "unit": "head", "value": 11682000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": 2.0 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Incoming placement pipeline", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Incoming fed-cattle pipeline.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 26, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Monthly placements", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_placements_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "incoming_pipeline", "unit": "head", "value": 1704000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -10.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 26, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements under 600 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_less_than_600_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 320000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 26, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 600-699 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_600_699_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 240000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 26, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 700-799 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_700_799_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 400000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 26, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 800-899 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_800_899_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 444000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 26, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 900-999 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_900_999_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 225000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 26, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 1,000+ lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_1000_lbs_and_greater", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 75000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "USDA ERS-derived feeder-cattle reservoir outside feedlots; lower inventory can constrain future placements.", "freshness": { "cadence": "Quarterly USDA ERS feeder supply", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Feeder cattle outside feedlots", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_FEEDER_SUPPLY" ], "stage": "feeder_supply", "unit": "thousand_head", "value": 18776.97, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-04-01", "yoy_pct": 2.2631 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Fed-cattle outflow and meat production", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Fed-cattle outflow toward slaughter.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 26, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Monthly marketings", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_marketings_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "fed_outflow", "unit": "head", "value": 1551000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -12.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Non-marketing feedlot disappearance.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 26, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Other disappearance", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_other_disappearance_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "fed_outflow", "unit": "head", "value": 55000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -11.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Observed weekly cattle head throughput.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-14T21:30:04", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Weekly federally inspected slaughter", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "slaughter", "unit": "head", "value": 529000.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": -7.5175 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Pounds produced per slaughtered animal.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-14T21:30:04", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Average dressed weight", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "yield", "unit": "lb_per_head", "value": 889.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": 2.6559 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Observed weekly beef output combines head throughput and carcass yield.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-14T21:30:04", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Weekly beef production", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "meat_output", "unit": "million_lb", "value": 469.1, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": -5.0789 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Counterfactual pounds effect holding year-ago dressed weight constant.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-14T21:30:04", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Head-count contribution to weekly production change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_head_count_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "production_bridge", "unit": "million_lb", "value": -37.238, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Incremental pounds attributable to the dressed-weight change at current slaughter.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-14T21:30:04", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Dressed-weight contribution to weekly production change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "production_bridge", "unit": "million_lb", "value": 12.167, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": null } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Trade and domestic availability", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Imported beef adds to domestic carcass-weight-equivalent availability.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date beef imports", "metadata": { "ytd_comparable": true, "ytd_through_month": 5 }, "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 2754566570.58, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": 9.9 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Exported beef removes product from domestic availability while reflecting foreign demand.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date beef exports", "metadata": { "ytd_comparable": true, "ytd_through_month": 5 }, "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 978518541.27, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": -17.2 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Imports less exports; this is a product-availability measure, not a fed-cattle-equivalent count.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date net beef imports", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 1776048029.31, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": -1.7187, "economic_read": "Weekly wholesale movement; descriptive context only because its futures validation gate has not passed.", "freshness": { "state": "UNKNOWN" }, "label": "Tuesday Choice/Select average weekly change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "tuesday_cutout_average_change_pct", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_BOXED_TUESDAY" ], "stage": "wholesale_demand", "unit": "percent", "value": -1.7187, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-07", "yoy_pct": null } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Capacity, cash, herd, and policy context", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Standardized box-minus-live operating-spread proxy; not company net income and not a futures timing signal.", "freshness": { "business_release_lag": 0, "calendar_age_days": 0, "expected_report_date": "2026-07-14", "holiday_calendar_note": "Weekday-aware; USDA holiday exceptions may produce WATCH until the next release.", "reason": "Latest expected weekday USDA CEI report is present.", "release_cutoff_ct": "15:45", "report_date": "2026-07-14", "state": "PASS", "status": "PASS", "weekend_aware": true }, "label": "USDA CEI gross packer spread", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_CEI" ], "stage": "processing_economics", "unit": "usd_per_cwt_carcass", "value": -6.7873, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-14", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current operating status constrains or restores feeder-cattle inflow; duration and price impact are not assumed.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Southern livestock port status", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_APHIS" ], "stage": "biological_policy", "unit": "status", "value": "CLOSED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-14", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current cash transmission and feedyard/packer leverage context.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "pass_max_days": 2, "state": "PASS", "watch_max_days": 5 }, "label": "Blended live cash cattle", "metadata": { "change_vs_last_week_usd_per_cwt": null }, "metric_id": "blended_live_cash", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_CASH" ], "stage": "cash_transmission", "unit": "usd_per_cwt_live", "value": 244.49, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-14", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Replacement intentions inform herd rebuilding capacity; they do not guarantee retained females or calf-crop growth.", "freshness": { "cadence": "Annual USDA ERS herd replacement", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Intended heifer replacements", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "intended_heifer_replacements", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_HERD_REPLACEMENT" ], "stage": "breeding_herd", "unit": "thousand_head", "value": 8618.8, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-01-01", "yoy_pct": 0.361 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" } ], "reconciliations": [ { "actual": 1704000.0, "check_id": "cof_placement_buckets", "expected": 1704000.0, "name": "Placement weight buckets sum to placements", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 1000.0, "unit": "head" }, { "actual": 11682000.0, "check_id": "cof_head_flow", "expected": 11682000.0, "name": "Opening inventory plus placements less outflows equals closing inventory", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 1000.0, "unit": "head" }, { "actual": 469.1, "check_id": "weekly_production_bridge", "expected": 469.12899999999996, "name": "Year-ago production plus head effect plus weight effect reconciles to current production", "passed": true, "residual": -0.029, "tolerance": 2.3455000000000004, "unit": "million_lb" }, { "actual": 1776048029.31, "check_id": "net_trade_identity", "expected": 1776048029.31, "name": "Imports less exports equals net imports", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 0.01, "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent" } ], "status": "RECONCILED", "summary": { "beef_supply_change_pct": -5.0789, "dressed_weight_yoy_pct": 2.6559, "exports_ytd_change_pct": -17.2, "imports_ytd_change_pct": 9.9, "observation_count": 24, "reconciliation_count": 4, "reconciliation_pass_count": 4, "slaughter_yoy_pct": -7.5175, "source_count": 9, "source_ledger_row_count": 9, "status": "RECONCILED", "weight_offset_of_head_decline_pct": 32.67 }, "unit_policy": "No cattle-head-to-beef-pound conversion is made without an exposed observed weight or typed derivation." }, "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "change_alerts": [ { "alert_id": "later_fed_pipeline_tightening", "counter_evidence": "Current cattle on feed are +2.0% YoY.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "TIGHTENING_LATER", "horizon": "3-18 months", "invalidation": "Placements and feeder availability normalize, or the livestock-border constraint is formally removed.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "WATCH", "summary": "The later fed-cattle pipeline is tightening, but this is not a futures signal.", "triggers": [ { "label": "Placements -10.0% YoY", "metric_id": "cof_placements_head" }, { "label": "Southern livestock ports closed", "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports" } ] }, { "alert_id": "weight_offsets_head_decline", "counter_evidence": "Reported weekly beef production remains -5.1% YoY.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "MEAT_CUSHION", "horizon": "current to 3 months", "invalidation": "Dressed weights stop offsetting lower head throughput.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "ACTIVE", "summary": "Heavier carcasses are replacing part of the beef tonnage lost to lower slaughter.", "triggers": [ { "label": "Slaughter -7.5% YoY", "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head" }, { "label": "Dressed weight +2.7% YoY", "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs" } ] }, { "alert_id": "trade_cushions_domestic_availability", "counter_evidence": "Product mix and imported lean are not fully interchangeable with Choice fed-beef cuts.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "DOMESTIC_AVAILABILITY_CUSHION", "horizon": "current to 6 months", "invalidation": "Imports reverse lower and exports recover enough to remove the net availability cushion.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "ACTIVE", "summary": "Trade flows are cushioning domestic beef availability despite tighter cattle head counts.", "triggers": [ { "label": "YTD imports +9.9%", "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe" }, { "label": "YTD exports -17.2%", "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe" } ] } ], "composer_contract": { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "composer_version": "alpha.structural_radar.composer.v2.0.0", "decision_effect": "NONE", "max_points": 0, "mode": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "conditional_contract_estimates": { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "contract_estimates": [ { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 245.4, 250.825 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 248.425, "contract_role": "near", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", 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"2026-06-25T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d5", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": -0.273556, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-26" }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 246.75, "predicted_response_pct": 0.765928, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-08", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.683544, 2.951848 ], "symbol": "LEQ6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 240.2, 264.075 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 249.55, "contract_role": "near", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-07-16T13:05:00-05:00", 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"MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": 0.531029, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-22" }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 240.1, "predicted_response_pct": 0.721589, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-10", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -0.374333, 1.488104 ], "symbol": "LEV6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 236.45, 246.775 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 242.075, "contract_role": "mid", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-06-25T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d5", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": -0.322782, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-26" }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 240.1, "predicted_response_pct": 0.81965, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-10", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.519832, 2.784357 ], "symbol": "LEV6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 233.525, 255.925 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 242.9, "contract_role": "mid", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-07-16T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d20", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": 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false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 239.125, "predicted_response_pct": 1.958683, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-12", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -2.607012, 8.100815 ], "symbol": "LEZ6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" } ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "definition": "Conditional fixed-contract COF report-response estimates, never intrinsic fair value or trade instructions.", "max_points": 0, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "schema_version": "alpha.conditional_contract_estimates.v1", "status": "RESEARCH_ONLY", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "decision_use": "CONTEXT", "errors": [], "extension_fields": [ "calibration_status", "composer_contract", "conditional_contract_estimates", "fair_values", "forecast_book", "forecast_registry", "forecast_scorecard", "frozen_forecasts", 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fixed-contract price response after a Cattle on Feed release.", "reproducibility": "Each issuance freezes the implementation SHA-256, fitted ridge coefficients/normalization/penalty, exact training-row identity hash, event features, source hashes, and model-spec hash.", "schema_version": "alpha.model_card.structural_futures_v2.v1", "status": "RESEARCH_ONLY_UNVALIDATED", "target": "Nth actual later RTH last-trade close versus same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close before the after-close COF release; these are not official CME settlements.", "target_definition": "Nth actual later RTH last-trade close versus same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close before the after-close COF release; these are not official CME settlements.", "training": { "continuous_or_stitched_prices_used": false, "fixed_contract_only": true, "method": "Ridge regression fit only to fully labeled events available before each prediction timestamp.", "minimum_train_events": 24, "walk_forward_evaluation": true }, "training_cutoff": "Strictly before each prediction release; every included label must also have completed before that release.", "uncertainty": "Residual 10th/90th-percentile response interval where enough walk-forward residuals exist.", "validation_method": "Expanding-window point-in-time walk-forward", "validation_protocol": "Expanding-window, point-in-time walk-forward evaluation against an expanding-mean diagnostic baseline." }, "module": "ALPHA_STRUCTURAL_FORECAST_REGISTRY", "outcome_states": { "MATURED_DATA_PENDING": 0, "OPEN": 0, "RESOLVED": 0 }, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "research_only": true, "safety": { "auto_promotion_path": false, "decision_effect": "NONE", "max_points": 0, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "radar_write_root": "/opt/alpha_structural_radar", "runtime_permission_probe": { "decision_probe_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/decision_status.json", "effective_uid": 997, "method": "NON_MUTATING_OS_ACCESS_EFFECTIVE_IDS", "radar_outputs_path": "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs", "required": true, "results": { "decision_output_writable": false, "radar_outputs_writable": true, "source_root_writable": false }, "source_root": "/opt/alpha_current", "status": "PASS" }, "source_root_read_only": "/opt/alpha_current", "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "wow_command_effect": "NONE", "write_allowlist": [ "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/data/structural_forecast_registry/records.jsonl", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs/structural_forecast_registry_status.json", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/state/structural_forecast_registry.lock" ], "writes_only_below_radar_root": true }, "schema_version": "alpha.structural_forecast_registry.v1", "scorecard": { "baseline": { "baseline_id": "ZERO_CHANGE_FIXED_CONTRACT_V1", "definition": "Zero report-response return from the pre-report fixed-contract close.", "frozen_at_issuance": true }, "by_contract_role": {}, "by_horizon": { "d1": { "baseline_mae_response_pct": null, "interval_80_coverage": null, "mae_skill_vs_zero_change_baseline": null, "model_directional_accuracy": null, "model_mae_response_pct": null, "model_mean_error_response_pct": null, "model_rmse_response_pct": null, "n_resolved": 0, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "unique_release_revision_count": 0, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, "d20": { "baseline_mae_response_pct": null, "interval_80_coverage": null, "mae_skill_vs_zero_change_baseline": null, "model_directional_accuracy": null, "model_mae_response_pct": null, "model_mean_error_response_pct": null, "model_rmse_response_pct": null, "n_resolved": 0, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "unique_release_revision_count": 0, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, "d40": { "baseline_mae_response_pct": null, "interval_80_coverage": null, "mae_skill_vs_zero_change_baseline": null, "model_directional_accuracy": null, "model_mae_response_pct": null, "model_mean_error_response_pct": null, "model_rmse_response_pct": null, "n_resolved": 0, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "unique_release_revision_count": 0, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, "d5": { "baseline_mae_response_pct": null, "interval_80_coverage": null, "mae_skill_vs_zero_change_baseline": null, "model_directional_accuracy": null, "model_mae_response_pct": null, "model_mean_error_response_pct": null, "model_rmse_response_pct": null, "n_resolved": 0, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "unique_release_revision_count": 0, "unique_report_release_count": 0 } }, "evaluation_population": "Only forecasts frozen while their target was genuinely open and later resolved from the same fixed contract.", "metric_policy": { "open_forecasts_scored": false, "primary": "MAE response percentage points relative to baseline MAE", "secondary": [ "RMSE", "mean error", "directional accuracy", "80% interval coverage" ] }, "overall": { "baseline_mae_response_pct": null, "interval_80_coverage": null, "mae_skill_vs_zero_change_baseline": null, "model_directional_accuracy": null, "model_mae_response_pct": null, "model_mean_error_response_pct": null, "model_rmse_response_pct": null, "n_resolved": 0, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "unique_release_revision_count": 0, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "profitability_claim": false, "schema_version": "alpha.structural_forecast_scorecard.v1" }, "status": "PASS", "warnings": [] }, "forecast_scorecard": { "baseline": "ZERO_CHANGE_FIXED_CONTRACT_V1", "baseline_name": "ZERO_CHANGE_FIXED_CONTRACT_V1", "breakdowns": [ { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d1", "label": "D1", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d5", "label": "D5", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d20", "label": "D20", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d40", "label": "D40", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 } ], "by_horizon": [ { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d1", "label": "D1", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d5", "label": "D5", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d20", "label": "D20", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d40", "label": "D40", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 } ], "calibration": [], "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "directional_accuracy": null, "forward_resolved_count": 0, "forward_resolved_forecast_count": 0, "forward_test_status": "OPEN_BOOK_NO_FORWARD_RESOLUTIONS", "interval_coverage": null, "mae": null, "mae_skill_vs_baseline": null, "matured_data_pending_count": 0, "mean_bias": null, "open_forecast_count": 0, "performance_status": "UNPROVEN", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "profitability_claim": false, "resolved_forecast_count": 0, "rmse": null, "schema_version": "alpha.structural_forecast_scorecard.v1", "skill_vs_baseline": null, "status": "NO_RESOLVED_FORWARD_FORECASTS", "unique_resolved_release_revision_count": 0, "unique_resolved_report_release_count": 0, "validation_mode": "IMMUTABLE_GENUINELY_FORWARD_OOS" }, "frozen_forecasts": [], "futures_implications": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESES", "generated_at_ct": "2026-07-15T05:50:24.150482-05:00", "headline": { "confidence": "HIGH", "dominant_stage": "placements_vs_meat_availability", "horizon": "current through 18 months", "state": "TIGHTENING_LATER_WITH_MEAT_CUSHIONS_NOW", "text": "The later fed-cattle pipeline is tightening while heavier carcasses and trade flows cushion beef availability now.", "what_changed": "No semantic structural change since the prior frozen vintage." }, "history": { "changed_metric_ids": [], "previous_fingerprint": "fd5bb06221c349b3ef985fb2d17280b49d6e1dfac5e68655fcad53d5fb769131", "semantic_changed": true, "vintage_count": 9, "vintage_recorded": true }, "live_trade_status": "DISABLED", "max_points": 0, "mode": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "model_card": { "baseline": "Expanding historical mean inside V2 walk-forward diagnostics; zero-change baseline in the immutable forward registry.", "calibration_policy": "No calibrated claim until at least 36 independent genuinely forward report releases and at least 10 unique releases per claimed horizon; correlated role-by-horizon cells and same-report revisions do not count as independent releases. Current status remains NOT_CALIBRATED.", "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "data_sources": [ "USDA NASS COF as-released event rows", "Databento Live Cattle fixed-contract daily bars" ], "evaluation_metrics": [ "MAE", "baseline-relative MAE skill", "directional accuracy", "prediction correlation", "80% interval coverage" ], "fairness_scope": "Not applicable to people; monitor contract-month and market-regime coverage instead.", "feature_families": [ "USDA COF year-over-year release values", "activity-month seasonality" ], "features": [ "on_feed_yoy_delta_pp", "placements_yoy_delta_pp", "marketings_yoy_delta_pp", "activity_month_season_sin", "activity_month_season_cos" ], "governance": { "auto_promotion_path": false, "decision_effect": "NONE", "max_points": 0, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "horizon_definitions": { "d1": "1 actual later fixed-contract session(s)", "d20": "20 actual later fixed-contract session(s)", "d40": "40 actual later fixed-contract session(s)", "d5": "5 actual later fixed-contract session(s)" }, "horizons": [ "d1", "d5", "d20", "d40" ], "intended_uses": [ "research", "hypothesis tracking", "forward accountability", "contract-window comparison" ], "known_limitations": [ "No contemporaneous consensus-surprise feature", "Conditional report response is not all-factor intrinsic value", "Weekday target scheduling is conservative and is reconciled to actual fixed-contract sessions at resolution", "No demonstrated forward predictive edge yet", "No transaction costs, slippage, liquidity, or executable strategy economics" ], "leakage_controls": [ "As-released report values only", "Latest event excluded from training", "Training labels must complete before prediction", "Forward registry rejects horizons already mature at first issuance" ], "lifecycle_status": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "model_name": "Structural Futures V2 fixed-contract COF response", "model_type": "Expanding-window ridge regression with fixed-contract event responses", "model_version": "cof-fixed-contract-ridge-v2.1.0", "monitoring": { "baseline_relative_scorecard": true, "calibration_minimum_unique_report_releases": 36, "immutable_forecast_book": true, "open_outcomes_retained": true }, "owner": "Alpha Structural Radar research boundary", "prediction_population": "Highest-volume unexpired Live Cattle fixed contract and the next two listed expiries on the release date.", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "prohibited_uses": [ "WOW Command input", "official decision input", "live trading", "position sizing", "intrinsic fair-value claim" ], "promotion_criteria": [ "At least 36 independent genuinely forward report releases", "At least 10 unique report releases per claimed horizon", "Positive baseline-relative MAE skill with stable directional evidence", "Independent governance review; never automatic promotion" ], "promotion_gate_passed": false, "purpose": "Estimate a conditional fixed-contract price response after a Cattle on Feed release.", "reproducibility": "Each issuance freezes the implementation SHA-256, fitted ridge coefficients/normalization/penalty, exact training-row identity hash, event features, source hashes, and model-spec hash.", "schema_version": "alpha.model_card.structural_futures_v2.v1", "status": "RESEARCH_ONLY_UNVALIDATED", "target": "Nth actual later RTH last-trade close versus same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close before the after-close COF release; these are not official CME settlements.", "target_definition": "Nth actual later RTH last-trade close versus same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close before the after-close COF release; these are not official CME settlements.", "training": { "continuous_or_stitched_prices_used": false, "fixed_contract_only": true, "method": "Ridge regression fit only to fully labeled events available before each prediction timestamp.", "minimum_train_events": 24, "walk_forward_evaluation": true }, "training_cutoff": "Strictly before each prediction release; every included label must also have completed before that release.", "uncertainty": "Residual 10th/90th-percentile response interval where enough walk-forward residuals exist.", "validation_method": "Expanding-window point-in-time walk-forward", "validation_protocol": "Expanding-window, point-in-time walk-forward evaluation against an expanding-mean diagnostic baseline." }, "module": "ALPHA_STRUCTURAL_RADAR_V1", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "previous_vintage_record_hash": "49e9d5bf5d7ca5e4704d051bb0b18cf334b1e5435f7d945b8b39f5ed4512b1b1", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "revision_ledger": [ { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_on_feed_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_placements_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_marketings_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_other_disappearance_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_less_than_600_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_600_699_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_700_799_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_800_899_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_900_999_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_1000_lbs_and_greater", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_head_count_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-14" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-14" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "blended_live_cash", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-14" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "tuesday_cutout_average_change_pct", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-07" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-04-01" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "intended_heifer_replacements", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-01-01" } ], "schema_version": "1.0.0", "semantic_fingerprint": "c5e5ae7760f35bdad527fab89513c3e29b0244ecbe79b46a9f0a2d2d2a2900a5", "separation_contract": { "auto_promotion_path": false, "calls_decision_components": false, "official_decision_effect": "NONE", "radar_write_root": "/opt/alpha_structural_radar", "reads_decision_outputs": false, "source_root_read_only": "/opt/alpha_current", "wow_command_effect": "NONE", "write_allowlist": [ "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs/structural_radar_status.json", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs/structural_radar_history.json", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/data/structural_radar/vintages.jsonl", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/state/structural_radar.lock" ], "writes_decision_outputs": false }, "source_ledger": [ { "error": null, "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 26, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-06-18", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "ade46450f3d485051a22b486c2b4457e426a1f3159b4ac155d306220cf43e611", "source_id": "USDA_NASS_COF", "source_module": "cattle_on_feed", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/cattle_on_feed_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-05", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "a06ba7022c9c3bfdd9c032d1e0e08210a371e9723cd92aa666fe65bccf994f56", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_TRADE", "source_module": "import_exports", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/import_exports_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "business_release_lag": 0, "calendar_age_days": 0, "expected_report_date": "2026-07-14", "holiday_calendar_note": "Weekday-aware; USDA holiday exceptions may produce WATCH until the next release.", "reason": "Latest expected weekday USDA CEI report is present.", "release_cutoff_ct": "15:45", "report_date": "2026-07-14", "state": "PASS", "status": "PASS", "weekend_aware": true }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-14 after 15:30 CT", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "c434eff9dbc5fdbd90829c0cbef72b385e219c7f382e5ccc5435851a98ae2a43", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_CEI", "source_module": "ALPHA_PACKER_ECONOMICS_V1", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/packer_economics_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-14", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "02477383774f79819462a1abd172f255ab6b08c320b3c43f2117b42d7293de93", "source_id": "USDA_APHIS", "source_module": "animal_health", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/animal_health_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "pass_max_days": 2, "state": "PASS", "watch_max_days": 5 }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-14 daily", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "e74b075da6054a4131bf117c8a28c15587ee3e082d6ade205ea45366793aad67", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_CASH", "source_module": "cash_cattle", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/cash_cattle_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "state": "UNKNOWN" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-07", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "c5bcdbe0f506542c06ebbc7e562c080bb298453e7afe5363f585d5177b6f59c2", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_BOXED_TUESDAY", "source_module": "boxed_beef_tuesday_history", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/boxed_beef_tuesday_history.json", "upstream_status": null, "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-14T21:30:04", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-10", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "5e2cbe357b3b9b5b94559680f4c134767052204b9ae01ed10c48f152ff09abac", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT", "source_module": "weekly_kill_weights", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/weekly_kill_weights.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "cadence": "Quarterly USDA ERS feeder supply", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-04-01", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "32d71256ffb42497325ea439db5ed6a00752be99019c9ab73562950ad87f581b", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_FEEDER_SUPPLY", "source_module": "ers_feeder_supply", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/ers_livestock_domestic_data/livestock-data-machine-readable-files/FeederCattleSuppliesOutsideFeedlots.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "DERIVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "cadence": "Annual USDA ERS herd replacement", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-01-01", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "281e3d55e23156459116f1b342105d36eb78c6d3295597ee52f60c846528960d", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_HERD_REPLACEMENT", "source_module": "ers_heifer_replacements", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/ers_livestock_domestic_data/livestock-data-machine-readable-files/heifersenteringherd.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" } ], "status": "PASS", "structural_futures_v2": { "cohort_timing_bridge": { "assumptions": { "contract_mapping": "Each possible market-ready day maps to the nearest still-unexpired Feb/Apr/Jun/Aug/Oct/Dec Live Cattle contract midpoint. Expiry uses the last weekday as an approximation and does not encode exchange holidays.", "days_on_feed": { "1000_lbs_and_greater": [ 50, 110 ], "600_699_lbs": [ 170, 230 ], "700_799_lbs": [ 140, 200 ], "800_899_lbs": [ 110, 170 ], "900_999_lbs": [ 80, 140 ], "less_than_600_lbs": [ 190, 250 ] }, "exposure_weighting": "Placement day and days-on-feed are modeled as independent discrete uniform assumptions, then convolved. These are scenario weights, not empirical probabilities.", "interpretation": "Head-equivalent exposure is a timing bridge, not deliverable supply, open interest, fair value, or a price forecast.", "placement_date_uncertainty": "Earliest uses activity-month start; latest uses activity-month end." }, "buckets": [ { "bucket_id": "less_than_600_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 209836.1, "delta_head_equivalent": -9836.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 219672.1, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.655738 }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 110163.9, "delta_head_equivalent": -5163.9, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 115327.9, "symbol": "LEG7", "window_day_share": 0.344262 } ], "current_head": 320000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 250, "minimum": 190 }, "delta_head": -15000, "delta_pct": -4.478, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-11-07", "latest": "2027-02-05" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-11-25", "p50": "2026-12-22", "p90": "2027-01-18", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 335000 }, { "bucket_id": "600_699_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 11549.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -1684.3, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 13233.7, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.048123 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 211189.8, "delta_head_equivalent": -30798.5, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 241988.4, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.879958 }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 17260.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -2517.2, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 19777.9, "symbol": "LEG7", "window_day_share": 0.07192 } ], "current_head": 240000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 230, "minimum": 170 }, "delta_head": -35000, "delta_pct": -12.727, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-10-18", "latest": "2027-01-16" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-11-05", "p50": "2026-12-02", "p90": "2026-12-29", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 275000 }, { "bucket_id": "700_799_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 183606.6, "delta_head_equivalent": -22950.8, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 206557.4, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.459016 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 216393.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -27049.2, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 243442.6, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.540984 } ], "current_head": 400000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 200, "minimum": 140 }, "delta_head": -50000, "delta_pct": -11.111, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-09-18", "latest": "2026-12-17" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-10-06", "p50": "2026-11-02", "p90": "2026-11-29", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 450000 }, { "bucket_id": "800_899_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 21366.5, "delta_head_equivalent": -3464.8, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 24831.3, "symbol": "LEQ6", "window_day_share": 0.048123 }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 382483.3, "delta_head_equivalent": -62024.3, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 444507.7, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.861449 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 40150.2, "delta_head_equivalent": -6510.8, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 46661.0, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.090428 } ], "current_head": 444000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 170, "minimum": 110 }, "delta_head": -72000, "delta_pct": -13.953, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-08-19", "latest": "2026-11-17" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-09-06", "p50": "2026-10-03", "p90": "2026-10-30", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 516000 }, { "bucket_id": "900_999_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 103278.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -2295.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 105573.8, "symbol": "LEQ6", "window_day_share": 0.459016 }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 121721.3, "delta_head_equivalent": -2704.9, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 124426.2, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.540984 } ], "current_head": 225000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 140, "minimum": 80 }, "delta_head": -5000, "delta_pct": -2.174, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-07-20", "latest": "2026-10-18" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-08-07", "p50": "2026-09-03", "p90": "2026-09-30", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 230000 }, { "bucket_id": "1000_lbs_and_greater", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-06", "current_head_equivalent": 2617.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -174.5, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 2792.2, "symbol": "LEM6", "window_day_share": 0.034902 }, { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 65600.2, "delta_head_equivalent": -4373.3, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 69973.6, "symbol": "LEQ6", "window_day_share": 0.874669 }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 6782.1, "delta_head_equivalent": -452.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 7234.3, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.090428 } ], "current_head": 75000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 110, "minimum": 50 }, "delta_head": -5000, "delta_pct": -6.25, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-06-20", "latest": "2026-09-18" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-07-08", "p50": "2026-08-04", "p90": "2026-08-31", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 80000 } ], "comparison": "SAME_ACTIVITY_MONTH_AS_RELEASED_YEAR_OVER_YEAR", "contracts": [ { "contract_month": "2026-06", "current_head_equivalent": 2617.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -174.5, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 2792.2, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEM6" }, { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 190245.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -10133.3, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 200378.6, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEQ6" }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 706142.8, "delta_head_equivalent": -89816.5, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 795959.3, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEV6" }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 677569.5, "delta_head_equivalent": -74194.6, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 751764.1, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEZ6" }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 127424.6, "delta_head_equivalent": -7681.1, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 135105.8, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEG7" } ], "latest_activity_month": "2026-05-01", "latest_release_date": "2026-06-18", "prior_year_activity_month": "2025-05-01", "prior_year_release_date": "2025-06-20", "reconciliations": [ { "actual": 1704000.0, "check_id": "latest_bucket_sum_to_placements", "expected": 1704000.0, "passed": true, "residual_head": 0.0, "tolerance_head": 1000.0 }, { "actual": 1886000.0, "check_id": "prior_bucket_sum_to_placements", "expected": 1886000.0, "passed": true, "residual_head": 0.0, "tolerance_head": 1000.0 }, { "actual": -182000.0, "check_id": "contract_exposure_delta_to_bucket_delta", "expected": -182000.0, "passed": true, "residual_head": 0.0, "tolerance_head": 1.0 } ], "status": "PASS" }, "contract_response_models": { "continuous_or_stitched_prices_used": false, "contract_estimates": [ { "cohort_timing_exposure": { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 190245.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -10133.3, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 200378.6, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEQ6" }, "contract_id": "LE-2026-08", "horizons": [ { "conditional_fair_value": 248.425, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 245.4, 250.825 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d1", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": 0.374873, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-22" }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.676151, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -0.548147, 1.653802 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 248.65, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 242.6, 254.025 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d5", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": -0.273556, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-26" }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.765928, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.683544, 2.951848 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 249.55, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 240.2, 264.075 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d20", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "predicted_response_pct": 1.131717, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -2.650467, 7.024054 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 251.75, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 242.55, 269.175 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d40", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "predicted_response_pct": 2.027405, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.702378, 9.086627 ], "status": "PASS" } ], "role": "near", "symbol": "LEQ6" }, { "cohort_timing_exposure": { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 706142.8, "delta_head_equivalent": -89816.5, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 795959.3, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEV6" }, "contract_id": "LE-2026-10", "horizons": [ { "conditional_fair_value": 241.825, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 239.2, 243.675 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d1", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": 0.531029, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-22" }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.721589, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -0.374333, 1.488104 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 242.075, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 236.45, 246.775 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d5", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": -0.322782, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-26" }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.81965, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.519832, 2.784357 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 242.9, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 233.525, 255.925 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d20", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "predicted_response_pct": 1.16672, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -2.742707, 6.594272 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 245.025, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 236.95, 261.5 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d40", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "predicted_response_pct": 2.053093, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.30899, 8.914597 ], "status": "PASS" } ], "role": "mid", "symbol": "LEV6" }, { "cohort_timing_exposure": { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 677569.5, "delta_head_equivalent": -74194.6, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 751764.1, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEZ6" }, "contract_id": "LE-2026-12", "horizons": [ { "conditional_fair_value": 240.8, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 238.65, 242.325 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d1", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": 0.585468, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-22" }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.697705, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -0.196348, 1.335889 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 241.175, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 235.65, 246.15 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d5", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": -0.230005, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-26" }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.857373, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.450258, 2.941915 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 241.675, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 234.8, 254.525 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d20", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "predicted_response_pct": 1.06329, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.805714, 6.442563 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 243.8, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 232.9, 258.5 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d40", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "predicted_response_pct": 1.958683, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -2.607012, 8.100815 ], "status": "PASS" } ], "role": "deferred", "symbol": "LEZ6" } ], "contract_selection": "Highest-volume unexpired named fixed contract is near; the next two canonical year-month expiries are mid and deferred.", 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"Capped at 12/15: the daily panel lacks a retained final-bar timestamp and historical original/correction completeness is not guaranteed.", "status": "PARTIAL", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "RECONCILIATION", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "All base observations are typed and reconciliations recompute within explicit units/tolerances", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Placement cohort-to-contract reconciliations recompute within head tolerances", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Accounting and reconciliation", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 }, { "dimension_id": "CONTRACT_HORIZONS", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Fixed contracts are used without continuous stitching", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "A unique, fully estimated near/mid/deferred D1/D5/D20/D40 fixed-contract grid is present", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Contract and horizon specificity", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 }, { "dimension_id": "MODEL_GOVERNANCE", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Operational promotion is false", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 }, { "criterion": "Predictive edge remains explicitly unproven", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 }, { "criterion": "Calibration remains explicitly incomplete", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 }, { "criterion": "Pricing authority and execution points are zero", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 } ], "label": "Model governance without promotion leakage", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 }, { "dimension_id": "FORWARD_ACCOUNTABILITY", "earned": 9.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Append-only registry freeze hashes validate", "max_points": 2.0, "passed": true, "points": 2.0 }, { "criterion": "Prior sibling checkpoint detects single-file tail loss", "max_points": 1.0, "passed": true, "points": 1.0 }, { "criterion": "An external protected/WORM ledger anchor exists", "max_points": 1.0, "passed": false, "points": 0 }, { "criterion": "Forecast IDs are deterministic and issuance is deduplicated", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Open and matured-unresolved outcomes remain explicit and unscored", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "At least 36 independent forward report releases and 10 unique releases per claimed horizon are resolved", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": false, "points": 0 } ], "label": "Immutable forward forecast accountability", "limitation": "0 correlated forecast cells across 0 independent report releases are resolved. Same-report roles, horizons, and revisions do not inflate the independent-release threshold. The sibling checkpoint is best-effort and no external WORM anchor exists; accountability is partial and predictive profitability is not graded.", "status": "PARTIAL", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "OPERATIONAL_ISOLATION", "earned": 15.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Base radar has no decision or WOW effect", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Registry writes only below the sibling radar root and the required runtime permission probe passes", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "No live-trade use, auto-promotion, or execution points", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Operational and WOW Command isolation", "status": "PASS", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "TRANSPARENCY", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Complete model card states purpose, target, data, leakage controls, limitations, and governance", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Scorecard names a frozen baseline and baseline-relative primary metric", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Model-card and baseline transparency", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 } ], "eligibility": { "operational_promotion_eligible": false, "predictive_profitability_grade_eligible": false, "status": "ELIGIBLE_SYSTEM_QUALITY_ONLY", "system_quality_grade_eligible": true }, "explicit_exclusions": [ "predictive profitability", "tradable edge", "live execution quality", "risk-adjusted returns" ], "max_points": 0, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "profitability_claim": false, "rubric_id": "ALPHA_SYSTEM_QUALITY_NON_PROFITABILITY_V1", "schema_version": "alpha.system_quality_audit.v1", "scope": "SYSTEM_DESIGN_DATA_INTEGRITY_GOVERNANCE_AND_ACCOUNTABILITY", "score": { "earned": 91.0, "grade": "A-", "maximum": 100.0, "normalized_10": 9.1 }, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "theses": [ { "active_alert_ids": [ "later_fed_pipeline_tightening", "weight_offsets_head_decline", "trade_cushions_domestic_availability" ], "confirmation": "Later marketings and slaughter tighten after placement cohorts roll forward while meat cushions fade.", "contradictions": [ "cof_on_feed_head", "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs" ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "cof_placements_head", "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "beef_exports_ytd_cwe" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "current through 18 months", "invalidation": "Placements recover or meat availability remains ample enough to prevent the expected tightening.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "PRIMARY_WORKING_HYPOTHESIS", "state": "TIGHTENING_LATER_WITH_MEAT_CUSHIONS_NOW", "thesis_id": "later_head_tightness_near_meat_cushion", "title": "Later fed-cattle tightness, buffered near-term beef availability" }, { "confirmation": "Weights, imports, dairy-beef supply, or weak exports continue replacing domestic fed-cattle tonnage.", "contradictions": [ "cof_placements_head", "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots" ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "current through 12 months", "invalidation": "Weights normalize and trade cushions reverse before placements recover.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "COMPETING_HYPOTHESIS", "thesis_id": "meat_availability_outlasts_head_shortage", "title": "Beef availability stays adequate longer than cattle head counts imply" }, { "confirmation": "Verified capacity exits or sustained shift reductions tighten the hook-to-cattle balance.", "contradictions": [ "No verified plant closure is inferred from margin data alone." ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "cof_marketings_head", "weekly_fi_slaughter_head" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "3-24 months", "invalidation": "Margins recover and observed capacity remains stable.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "COMPETING_HYPOTHESIS", "thesis_id": "capacity_rationalization_changes_leverage", "title": "Processing-capacity rationalization changes packer and feedyard leverage" } ], "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "validation": { "all_units_typed": true, "decision_effect": "NONE", "failed_reconciliations": [], "futures_pricing_model_active": false, "maximum_execution_points": 0, "missing_core_metrics": [], "missing_inputs": [], "numeric_forecast_policy": "No forward numeric value is emitted until an independently validated model supplies it.", "point_in_time_only": true, "promotion_gate_passed": false, "semantic_vintage_chain_validation": "PASS_WITH_LEGACY_PREFIX", "semantic_vintage_checkpoint_prior_state": "PASS", "semantic_vintage_checkpoint_validation": "PASS", "semantic_vintage_external_anchor_present": false, "semantic_vintage_parse_strict": true, "semantic_vintages": true, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "vintage_record_hash": "1b050d7d72aa500f143461f4f2eaf4ba0384a063b4a2c4aa443a57ac02639b16", "warnings": [] }, { "balance_sheet": { "as_of": "2026-07-15", "periods": [ { "period": "Current feedlot inventory", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current fed-cattle inventory.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 27, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Cattle on feed", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_on_feed_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "feedlot_inventory", "unit": "head", "value": 11682000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": 2.0 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Incoming placement pipeline", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Incoming fed-cattle pipeline.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 27, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Monthly placements", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_placements_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "incoming_pipeline", "unit": "head", "value": 1704000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -10.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 27, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements under 600 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_less_than_600_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 320000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 27, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 600-699 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_600_699_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 240000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 27, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 700-799 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_700_799_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 400000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 27, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 800-899 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_800_899_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 444000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 27, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 900-999 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_900_999_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 225000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 27, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 1,000+ lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_1000_lbs_and_greater", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 75000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "USDA ERS-derived feeder-cattle reservoir outside feedlots; lower inventory can constrain future placements.", "freshness": { "cadence": "Quarterly USDA ERS feeder supply", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Feeder cattle outside feedlots", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_FEEDER_SUPPLY" ], "stage": "feeder_supply", "unit": "thousand_head", "value": 18776.97, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-04-01", "yoy_pct": 2.2631 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Fed-cattle outflow and meat production", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Fed-cattle outflow toward slaughter.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 27, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Monthly marketings", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_marketings_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "fed_outflow", "unit": "head", "value": 1551000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -12.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Non-marketing feedlot disappearance.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 27, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Other disappearance", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_other_disappearance_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "fed_outflow", "unit": "head", "value": 55000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -11.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Observed weekly cattle head throughput.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-15T21:30:03", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Weekly federally inspected slaughter", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "slaughter", "unit": "head", "value": 529000.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": -7.5175 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Pounds produced per slaughtered animal.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-15T21:30:03", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Average dressed weight", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "yield", "unit": "lb_per_head", "value": 889.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": 2.6559 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Observed weekly beef output combines head throughput and carcass yield.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-15T21:30:03", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Weekly beef production", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "meat_output", "unit": "million_lb", "value": 469.1, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": -5.0789 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Counterfactual pounds effect holding year-ago dressed weight constant.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-15T21:30:03", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Head-count contribution to weekly production change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_head_count_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "production_bridge", "unit": "million_lb", "value": -37.238, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Incremental pounds attributable to the dressed-weight change at current slaughter.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-15T21:30:03", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Dressed-weight contribution to weekly production change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "production_bridge", "unit": "million_lb", "value": 12.167, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": null } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Trade and domestic availability", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Imported beef adds to domestic carcass-weight-equivalent availability.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date beef imports", "metadata": { "ytd_comparable": true, "ytd_through_month": 5 }, "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 2754566570.58, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": 9.9 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Exported beef removes product from domestic availability while reflecting foreign demand.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date beef exports", "metadata": { "ytd_comparable": true, "ytd_through_month": 5 }, "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 978518541.27, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": -17.2 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Imports less exports; this is a product-availability measure, not a fed-cattle-equivalent count.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date net beef imports", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 1776048029.31, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": -1.7187, "economic_read": "Weekly wholesale movement; descriptive context only because its futures validation gate has not passed.", "freshness": { "state": "UNKNOWN" }, "label": "Tuesday Choice/Select average weekly change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "tuesday_cutout_average_change_pct", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_BOXED_TUESDAY" ], "stage": "wholesale_demand", "unit": "percent", "value": -1.7187, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-07", "yoy_pct": null } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Capacity, cash, herd, and policy context", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Standardized box-minus-live operating-spread proxy; not company net income and not a futures timing signal.", "freshness": { "business_release_lag": 0, "calendar_age_days": 0, "expected_report_date": "2026-07-15", "holiday_calendar_note": "Weekday-aware; USDA holiday exceptions may produce WATCH until the next release.", "reason": "Latest expected weekday USDA CEI report is present.", "release_cutoff_ct": "15:45", "report_date": "2026-07-15", "state": "PASS", "status": "PASS", "weekend_aware": true }, "label": "USDA CEI gross packer spread", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_CEI" ], "stage": "processing_economics", "unit": "usd_per_cwt_carcass", "value": -7.7326, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-15", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current operating status constrains or restores feeder-cattle inflow; duration and price impact are not assumed.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Southern livestock port status", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "source_ids": [ "USDA_APHIS" ], "stage": "biological_policy", "unit": "status", "value": "CLOSED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-15", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current cash transmission and feedyard/packer leverage context.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "pass_max_days": 2, "state": "PASS", "watch_max_days": 5 }, "label": "Blended live cash cattle", "metadata": { "change_vs_last_week_usd_per_cwt": null }, "metric_id": "blended_live_cash", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_CASH" ], "stage": "cash_transmission", "unit": "usd_per_cwt_live", "value": 239.2, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-15", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Replacement intentions inform herd rebuilding capacity; they do not guarantee retained females or calf-crop growth.", "freshness": { "cadence": "Annual USDA ERS herd replacement", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Intended heifer replacements", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "intended_heifer_replacements", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_HERD_REPLACEMENT" ], "stage": "breeding_herd", "unit": "thousand_head", "value": 8618.8, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-01-01", "yoy_pct": 0.361 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" } ], "reconciliations": [ { "actual": 1704000.0, "check_id": "cof_placement_buckets", "expected": 1704000.0, "name": "Placement weight buckets sum to placements", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 1000.0, "unit": "head" }, { "actual": 11682000.0, "check_id": "cof_head_flow", "expected": 11682000.0, "name": "Opening inventory plus placements less outflows equals closing inventory", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 1000.0, "unit": "head" }, { "actual": 469.1, "check_id": "weekly_production_bridge", "expected": 469.12899999999996, "name": "Year-ago production plus head effect plus weight effect reconciles to current production", "passed": true, "residual": -0.029, "tolerance": 2.3455000000000004, "unit": "million_lb" }, { "actual": 1776048029.31, "check_id": "net_trade_identity", "expected": 1776048029.31, "name": "Imports less exports equals net imports", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 0.01, "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent" } ], "status": "RECONCILED", "summary": { "beef_supply_change_pct": -5.0789, "dressed_weight_yoy_pct": 2.6559, "exports_ytd_change_pct": -17.2, "imports_ytd_change_pct": 9.9, "observation_count": 24, "reconciliation_count": 4, "reconciliation_pass_count": 4, "slaughter_yoy_pct": -7.5175, "source_count": 9, "source_ledger_row_count": 9, "status": "RECONCILED", "weight_offset_of_head_decline_pct": 32.67 }, "unit_policy": "No cattle-head-to-beef-pound conversion is made without an exposed observed weight or typed derivation." }, "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "change_alerts": [ { "alert_id": "later_fed_pipeline_tightening", "counter_evidence": "Current cattle on feed are +2.0% YoY.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "TIGHTENING_LATER", "horizon": "3-18 months", "invalidation": "Placements and feeder availability normalize, or the livestock-border constraint is formally removed.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "WATCH", "summary": "The later fed-cattle pipeline is tightening, but this is not a futures signal.", "triggers": [ { "label": "Placements -10.0% YoY", "metric_id": "cof_placements_head" }, { "label": "Southern livestock ports closed", "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports" } ] }, { "alert_id": "weight_offsets_head_decline", "counter_evidence": "Reported weekly beef production remains -5.1% YoY.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "MEAT_CUSHION", "horizon": "current to 3 months", "invalidation": "Dressed weights stop offsetting lower head throughput.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "ACTIVE", "summary": "Heavier carcasses are replacing part of the beef tonnage lost to lower slaughter.", "triggers": [ { "label": "Slaughter -7.5% YoY", "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head" }, { "label": "Dressed weight +2.7% YoY", "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs" } ] }, { "alert_id": "trade_cushions_domestic_availability", "counter_evidence": "Product mix and imported lean are not fully interchangeable with Choice fed-beef cuts.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "DOMESTIC_AVAILABILITY_CUSHION", "horizon": "current to 6 months", "invalidation": "Imports reverse lower and exports recover enough to remove the net availability cushion.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "ACTIVE", "summary": "Trade flows are cushioning domestic beef availability despite tighter cattle head counts.", "triggers": [ { "label": "YTD imports +9.9%", "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe" }, { "label": "YTD exports -17.2%", "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe" } ] } ], "composer_contract": { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "composer_version": "alpha.structural_radar.composer.v2.0.0", "decision_effect": "NONE", "max_points": 0, "mode": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "conditional_contract_estimates": { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "contract_estimates": [ { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 245.4, 250.825 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 248.425, "contract_role": "near", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-06-19T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d1", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": 0.374873, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-22" }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 246.75, "predicted_response_pct": 0.676151, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-08", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -0.548147, 1.653802 ], "symbol": "LEQ6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 242.6, 254.025 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 248.65, "contract_role": "near", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-06-25T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d5", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": -0.273556, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-26" }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 246.75, "predicted_response_pct": 0.765928, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-08", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.683544, 2.951848 ], "symbol": "LEQ6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 240.2, 264.075 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 249.55, "contract_role": "near", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-07-16T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d20", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "status": "OPEN_OR_NOT_YET_OBSERVABLE", "target_date": null }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 246.75, "predicted_response_pct": 1.131717, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-08", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -2.650467, 7.024054 ], "symbol": "LEQ6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 242.55, 269.175 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 251.75, "contract_role": "near", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-08-13T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d40", 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"MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": 0.531029, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-22" }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 240.1, "predicted_response_pct": 0.721589, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-10", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -0.374333, 1.488104 ], "symbol": "LEV6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 236.45, 246.775 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 242.075, "contract_role": "mid", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-06-25T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d5", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", 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"target_date": "2026-06-26" }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 239.125, "predicted_response_pct": 0.857373, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-12", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.450258, 2.941915 ], "symbol": "LEZ6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 234.8, 254.525 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 241.675, "contract_role": "deferred", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-07-16T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d20", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "status": "OPEN_OR_NOT_YET_OBSERVABLE", "target_date": null }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 239.125, "predicted_response_pct": 1.06329, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-12", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.805714, 6.442563 ], "symbol": "LEZ6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 232.9, 258.5 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 243.8, "contract_role": "deferred", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-08-13T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d40", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "status": "OPEN_OR_NOT_YET_OBSERVABLE", "target_date": null }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 239.125, "predicted_response_pct": 1.958683, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-12", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -2.607012, 8.100815 ], "symbol": "LEZ6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" } ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "definition": "Conditional fixed-contract COF report-response estimates, never intrinsic fair value or trade instructions.", "max_points": 0, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "schema_version": "alpha.conditional_contract_estimates.v1", "status": "RESEARCH_ONLY", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "decision_use": "CONTEXT", "errors": [], "extension_fields": [ "calibration_status", "composer_contract", "conditional_contract_estimates", "fair_values", "forecast_book", "forecast_registry", "forecast_scorecard", "frozen_forecasts", "model_card", "operational_promotion_gate_passed", "predictive_edge_status", "pricing_authority", "structural_futures_v2", "system_quality_audit" ], "fair_values": [ { "as_of_price": 246.75, "contract": "LEQ6", "decision_effect": "NONE", "edge_pct": 0.676151, "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_return_pct": 0.676151, "fair_value": 248.425, "horizon": "d1", "interval": [ 245.4, 250.825 ], "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "market": "LIVE_CATTLE", "model_version": "cof-fixed-contract-ridge-v2.1.0", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predicted_price": 248.425, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-08", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ONLY", "validation_status": "PREDICTIVE_EDGE_UNPROVEN", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "as_of_price": 246.75, "contract": "LEQ6", "decision_effect": "NONE", "edge_pct": 0.765928, "estimate_type": 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243.8, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-12", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ONLY", "validation_status": "PREDICTIVE_EDGE_UNPROVEN", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" } ], "forecasts": [], "frozen": true, "immutable": true, "matured_data_pending_count": 0, "max_points": 0, "model_card": { "baseline": "Expanding historical mean inside V2 walk-forward diagnostics; zero-change baseline in the immutable forward registry.", "calibration_policy": "No calibrated claim until at least 36 independent genuinely forward report releases and at least 10 unique releases per claimed horizon; correlated role-by-horizon cells and same-report revisions do not count as independent releases. 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"training_cutoff": "Strictly before each prediction release; every included label must also have completed before that release.", "uncertainty": "Residual 10th/90th-percentile response interval where enough walk-forward residuals exist.", "validation_method": "Expanding-window point-in-time walk-forward", "validation_protocol": "Expanding-window, point-in-time walk-forward evaluation against an expanding-mean diagnostic baseline." }, "module": "ALPHA_STRUCTURAL_RADAR_V1", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "previous_vintage_record_hash": "1b050d7d72aa500f143461f4f2eaf4ba0384a063b4a2c4aa443a57ac02639b16", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "revision_ledger": [ { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_on_feed_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_placements_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_marketings_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_other_disappearance_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_less_than_600_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_600_699_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_700_799_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_800_899_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_900_999_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_1000_lbs_and_greater", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_head_count_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Period advanced from 2026-07-14 to 2026-07-15.", "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "vintage_date": "2026-07-15" }, { "detail": "Period advanced from 2026-07-14 to 2026-07-15.", "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "vintage_date": "2026-07-15" }, { "detail": "Period advanced from 2026-07-14 to 2026-07-15.", "metric_id": "blended_live_cash", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "vintage_date": "2026-07-15" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "tuesday_cutout_average_change_pct", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-07" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-04-01" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "intended_heifer_replacements", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-01-01" } ], "schema_version": "1.0.0", "semantic_fingerprint": "cac7d19bb17876f2ae93fbf996eeaa5d3d8b6d0ab8aa7482e57f4e36bf5694e6", "separation_contract": { "auto_promotion_path": false, "calls_decision_components": false, "official_decision_effect": "NONE", "radar_write_root": "/opt/alpha_structural_radar", "reads_decision_outputs": false, "source_root_read_only": "/opt/alpha_current", "wow_command_effect": "NONE", "write_allowlist": [ "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs/structural_radar_status.json", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs/structural_radar_history.json", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/data/structural_radar/vintages.jsonl", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/state/structural_radar.lock" ], "writes_decision_outputs": false }, "source_ledger": [ { "error": null, "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 27, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-06-18", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "cbabff61196d0b1e5b733a6f4eec918cf2ba0f3774516e20a31e020285037cd8", "source_id": "USDA_NASS_COF", "source_module": "cattle_on_feed", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/cattle_on_feed_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-05", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "73be65a6f3a9e4e696ee9d7a7715f3e8f411d475aee191d30f5a720da7010379", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_TRADE", "source_module": "import_exports", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/import_exports_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "business_release_lag": 0, "calendar_age_days": 0, "expected_report_date": "2026-07-15", "holiday_calendar_note": "Weekday-aware; USDA holiday exceptions may produce WATCH until the next release.", "reason": "Latest expected weekday USDA CEI report is present.", "release_cutoff_ct": "15:45", "report_date": "2026-07-15", "state": "PASS", "status": "PASS", "weekend_aware": true }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-15 after 15:30 CT", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "448f0f0e6942766589ee659859b388be898001cf869cb88375f7f13e86a10098", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_CEI", "source_module": "ALPHA_PACKER_ECONOMICS_V1", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/packer_economics_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-15", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "c363d65fb58cb4c9c52725d8c8e014b830899475761ce59e09401329d4fd0264", "source_id": "USDA_APHIS", "source_module": "animal_health", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/animal_health_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "pass_max_days": 2, "state": "PASS", "watch_max_days": 5 }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-15 daily publication", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "c7d99de4639ffe24fa29004a98341e9fa3a4d1a15a4d38126bff29e8fc60c620", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_CASH", "source_module": "cash_cattle", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/cash_cattle_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "state": "UNKNOWN" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-07", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "c5bcdbe0f506542c06ebbc7e562c080bb298453e7afe5363f585d5177b6f59c2", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_BOXED_TUESDAY", "source_module": "boxed_beef_tuesday_history", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/boxed_beef_tuesday_history.json", "upstream_status": null, "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-15T21:30:03", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-10", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "2855df5b9527718daf6f9abf12a7a5b087b13463504bfe663573c8651b721150", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT", "source_module": "weekly_kill_weights", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/weekly_kill_weights.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "cadence": "Quarterly USDA ERS feeder supply", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-04-01", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "32d71256ffb42497325ea439db5ed6a00752be99019c9ab73562950ad87f581b", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_FEEDER_SUPPLY", "source_module": "ers_feeder_supply", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/ers_livestock_domestic_data/livestock-data-machine-readable-files/FeederCattleSuppliesOutsideFeedlots.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "DERIVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "cadence": "Annual USDA ERS herd replacement", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-01-01", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "281e3d55e23156459116f1b342105d36eb78c6d3295597ee52f60c846528960d", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_HERD_REPLACEMENT", "source_module": "ers_heifer_replacements", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/ers_livestock_domestic_data/livestock-data-machine-readable-files/heifersenteringherd.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" } ], "status": "PASS", "structural_futures_v2": { "cohort_timing_bridge": { "assumptions": { "contract_mapping": "Each possible market-ready day maps to the nearest still-unexpired Feb/Apr/Jun/Aug/Oct/Dec Live Cattle contract midpoint. Expiry uses the last weekday as an approximation and does not encode exchange holidays.", "days_on_feed": { "1000_lbs_and_greater": [ 50, 110 ], "600_699_lbs": [ 170, 230 ], "700_799_lbs": [ 140, 200 ], "800_899_lbs": [ 110, 170 ], "900_999_lbs": [ 80, 140 ], "less_than_600_lbs": [ 190, 250 ] }, "exposure_weighting": "Placement day and days-on-feed are modeled as independent discrete uniform assumptions, then convolved. These are scenario weights, not empirical probabilities.", "interpretation": "Head-equivalent exposure is a timing bridge, not deliverable supply, open interest, fair value, or a price forecast.", "placement_date_uncertainty": "Earliest uses activity-month start; latest uses activity-month end." }, "buckets": [ { "bucket_id": "less_than_600_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 209836.1, "delta_head_equivalent": -9836.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 219672.1, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.655738 }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 110163.9, "delta_head_equivalent": -5163.9, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 115327.9, "symbol": "LEG7", "window_day_share": 0.344262 } ], "current_head": 320000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 250, "minimum": 190 }, "delta_head": -15000, "delta_pct": -4.478, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-11-07", "latest": "2027-02-05" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-11-25", "p50": "2026-12-22", "p90": "2027-01-18", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 335000 }, { "bucket_id": "600_699_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 11549.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -1684.3, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 13233.7, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.048123 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 211189.8, "delta_head_equivalent": -30798.5, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 241988.4, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.879958 }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 17260.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -2517.2, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 19777.9, "symbol": "LEG7", "window_day_share": 0.07192 } ], "current_head": 240000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 230, "minimum": 170 }, "delta_head": -35000, "delta_pct": -12.727, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-10-18", "latest": "2027-01-16" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-11-05", "p50": "2026-12-02", "p90": "2026-12-29", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 275000 }, { "bucket_id": "700_799_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 183606.6, "delta_head_equivalent": -22950.8, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 206557.4, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.459016 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 216393.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -27049.2, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 243442.6, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.540984 } ], "current_head": 400000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 200, "minimum": 140 }, "delta_head": -50000, "delta_pct": -11.111, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-09-18", "latest": "2026-12-17" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-10-06", "p50": "2026-11-02", "p90": "2026-11-29", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 450000 }, { "bucket_id": "800_899_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 21366.5, "delta_head_equivalent": -3464.8, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 24831.3, "symbol": "LEQ6", "window_day_share": 0.048123 }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 382483.3, "delta_head_equivalent": -62024.3, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 444507.7, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.861449 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 40150.2, "delta_head_equivalent": -6510.8, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 46661.0, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.090428 } ], "current_head": 444000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 170, "minimum": 110 }, "delta_head": -72000, "delta_pct": -13.953, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-08-19", "latest": "2026-11-17" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-09-06", "p50": "2026-10-03", "p90": "2026-10-30", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 516000 }, { "bucket_id": "900_999_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 103278.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -2295.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 105573.8, "symbol": "LEQ6", "window_day_share": 0.459016 }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 121721.3, "delta_head_equivalent": -2704.9, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 124426.2, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.540984 } ], "current_head": 225000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 140, "minimum": 80 }, "delta_head": -5000, "delta_pct": -2.174, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-07-20", "latest": "2026-10-18" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-08-07", "p50": "2026-09-03", "p90": "2026-09-30", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 230000 }, { "bucket_id": "1000_lbs_and_greater", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-06", "current_head_equivalent": 2617.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -174.5, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 2792.2, "symbol": "LEM6", "window_day_share": 0.034902 }, { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 65600.2, "delta_head_equivalent": -4373.3, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 69973.6, "symbol": "LEQ6", "window_day_share": 0.874669 }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 6782.1, "delta_head_equivalent": -452.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 7234.3, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.090428 } ], "current_head": 75000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 110, "minimum": 50 }, "delta_head": -5000, "delta_pct": -6.25, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-06-20", "latest": "2026-09-18" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-07-08", "p50": "2026-08-04", "p90": "2026-08-31", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 80000 } ], "comparison": "SAME_ACTIVITY_MONTH_AS_RELEASED_YEAR_OVER_YEAR", "contracts": [ { "contract_month": "2026-06", "current_head_equivalent": 2617.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -174.5, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 2792.2, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEM6" }, { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 190245.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -10133.3, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 200378.6, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEQ6" }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 706142.8, "delta_head_equivalent": -89816.5, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 795959.3, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEV6" }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 677569.5, "delta_head_equivalent": -74194.6, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 751764.1, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEZ6" }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 127424.6, "delta_head_equivalent": -7681.1, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 135105.8, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEG7" } ], "latest_activity_month": "2026-05-01", "latest_release_date": "2026-06-18", "prior_year_activity_month": "2025-05-01", "prior_year_release_date": "2025-06-20", "reconciliations": [ { "actual": 1704000.0, "check_id": "latest_bucket_sum_to_placements", "expected": 1704000.0, "passed": true, "residual_head": 0.0, "tolerance_head": 1000.0 }, { "actual": 1886000.0, "check_id": "prior_bucket_sum_to_placements", "expected": 1886000.0, "passed": true, "residual_head": 0.0, "tolerance_head": 1000.0 }, { "actual": -182000.0, "check_id": "contract_exposure_delta_to_bucket_delta", "expected": -182000.0, "passed": true, "residual_head": 0.0, "tolerance_head": 1.0 } ], "status": "PASS" }, "contract_response_models": { "continuous_or_stitched_prices_used": false, "contract_estimates": [ { "cohort_timing_exposure": { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 190245.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -10133.3, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 200378.6, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEQ6" }, "contract_id": "LE-2026-08", "horizons": [ { "conditional_fair_value": 248.425, 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"e66dad219c983fde988e04a569aa3adc0fc81d5e37247d97f8854df408c32f52" }, "gate_checks": { "beats_zero_return_baseline": true, "directional_accuracy_at_least_52pct": true, "interval_80_coverage_65_to_90pct": false, "mae_skill_at_least_5pct": false, "n_oos_at_least_36": true, "prediction_correlation_at_least_0_10": false }, "horizon": "d40", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "max_training_label_date": "2026-06-15", "min_train_events": 24, "model_version": "cof-fixed-contract-ridge-v2.1.0", "n_train": 75, "pre_report_close": 239.125, "predicted_response_pct": 1.958683, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-12", "prediction_release_date": "2026-06-18", "prediction_symbol": "LEZ6", "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "research_only": true, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -2.607012, 8.100815 ], "role": "deferred", "status": "PASS", "strictly_prior_training": true, "training_max_release_date": "2026-04-17", "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "walk_forward": { "baseline_mae_return_pct": 3.632719, "directional_accuracy": 0.64, "interval_80_coverage": 0.6, "interval_coverage_n": 35, "mae_return_pct": 3.544136, "mae_skill_vs_expanding_mean": 0.024385, "mae_skill_vs_zero_return": 0.107422, "n_oos": 50, "prediction_correlation": -0.02018, "zero_return_baseline_mae_pct": 3.970674 }, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" } ], "multiplicity_policy": "Twelve role-by-horizon candidates are exposed together; no familywise or FDR gate has passed, so operational promotion is prohibited.", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "statistical_gate_pass_count": 0, "target_definition": "Nth actual later RTH last-trade close versus same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close before the after-close COF release; these are not official CME settlements." }, "decision_effect": "NONE", "errors": [], "headline": "Placement cohorts are mapped to contract windows; price estimates remain conditional and research-only.", "live": false, "max_points": 0, "mode": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "module": "ALPHA_STRUCTURAL_FUTURES_V2", "point_in_time_events": { "as_of_cutoff_ct": "2026-07-15T16:50:31.035264-05:00", "consensus_surprise_available": false, "consensus_surprise_used": false, "event_count": 114, "feature_policy": "Only values printed in the as-released row plus activity-month season terms are features.", "latest_event": { "activity_month": "2026-05-01", "availability_rule": "Feature values become available only at the recorded USDA release timestamp.", "event_id": "795942", "observations": [ { "known_at_ct": "2026-06-18T14:00:00-05:00", "observation_id": "on_feed_yoy_delta_pp", "unit": "percentage_point", "value": 2.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED_RELEASE" }, { "known_at_ct": "2026-06-18T14:00:00-05:00", "observation_id": "placements_yoy_delta_pp", "unit": "percentage_point", "value": -10.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED_RELEASE" }, { "known_at_ct": "2026-06-18T14:00:00-05:00", "observation_id": "marketings_yoy_delta_pp", "unit": "percentage_point", "value": -12.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED_RELEASE" }, { "known_at_ct": "2026-06-18T14:00:00-05:00", "observation_id": "season_sin", "unit": "cyclical_component", "value": 0.5, "value_kind": "DERIVED_FROM_ACTIVITY_MONTH" }, { "known_at_ct": "2026-06-18T14:00:00-05:00", "observation_id": "season_cos", "unit": "cyclical_component", "value": -0.866025, "value_kind": "DERIVED_FROM_ACTIVITY_MONTH" } ], "provenance": { "source_sha256": "da477404f359a36b9d2b412f0dfdeaa4f3b05596c898c0655184124228fa9fbf", "source_url": "https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795942/cofd0626.txt" }, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "release_revision_id": "795942@2026-06-18T14:00:00-05:00", "release_timestamp_ct": "2026-06-18T14:00:00-05:00", "release_timestamp_kind": "RECORDED_SOURCE_TIMESTAMP", "research_only": true, "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false } }, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "research_only": true, "schema_version": "alpha.structural_futures.v2", "semantic_fingerprint": "52e4140380e41a33f6b0353216e1b6bcbc1ba2411f8e11669b884369074391b2", "source_ledger": [ { "path": "/opt/alpha_current/data/cattle_on_feed/report_events.csv", "read_only": true, "rows": 114, "sha256": "8c9fa84f4a2ce005f1a3e636a6a01f0051000c3b69de93c11e649ab753fa166b", "source_id": "USDA_NASS_COF_AS_RELEASED" }, { "path": "/opt/alpha_current/data/cattle_on_feed/le_fixed_ohlcv_1d.parquet", "read_only": true, "rows": 14261, "sha256": "cbc95c9a5605aa7346752751eb2dd1bc36d6d35e9f0a38e481e1076c2e091f06", "source_id": "DATABENTO_LE_FIXED_CONTRACT_DAILY" } ], "status": "PASS", "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "validation": { "all_training_labels_completed_before_prediction": true, "cohort_reconciliations_passed": true, "corrections_after_response_anchor_excluded": true, "data_status": { "event_rows": 114, "first_event_date": "2017-01-27", "fixed_contract_rows": 14261, "latest_event_date": "2026-06-18", "latest_event_price_reference_available": true, "price_first_date": "2020-01-02", "price_last_date": "2026-07-15", "response_panel_rows": 231 }, "events_filtered_to_as_of_cutoff": true, "historical_correction_policy": "Recorded same-date revisions are cutoff-aware. Later-date corrections are excluded from the report-response panel so they cannot be paired with an already-observed original-report return path; displaced originals are not guaranteed recoverable for every historical USDA correction.", "historical_original_corrections_complete": false, "latest_event_excluded_from_training": true, "model_gate_is_not_operational_gate": true, "numeric_forecast_policy": "No estimate is emitted with insufficient prior history; no model estimate affects WOW or decisions.", "point_in_time_release_timestamps": true, "price_reference_is_official_settlement": false, "price_reference_timestamp_retained": false, "price_rows_filtered_to_as_of_cutoff": true, "price_rows_unique_by_date_contract": true }, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "system_quality_audit": { "accountability_status": "PARTIAL", "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "critical_gates": { "decision_isolation_gate": true, "immutable_registry_gate": true, "no_operational_promotion_gate": true, "no_predictive_skill_claim_gate": true, "overall_health_gate": true, "point_in_time_gate": true, "reconciliation_gate": true, "runtime_permission_probe_gate": true, "source_alignment_and_price_freshness_gate": true, "wow_isolation_gate": true }, "critical_gates_passed": true, "decision_effect": "NONE", "dimensions": [ { "dimension_id": "SOURCE_PROVENANCE", "earned": 15.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "At least eight unique structural sources have explicit non-stale freshness, observed-at values, and fingerprints", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Every base ledger row is identified, fingerprinted, and read-only", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Both required V2 sources are nonempty, read-only, and SHA-256 fingerprinted", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Base COF and V2 latest releases align, and the fixed-contract panel is current", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Base structural vintages parse strictly, checkpoint tail loss, and chain new semantic records", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 } ], "label": "Source provenance and semantic integrity", "status": "PASS", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "POINT_IN_TIME", "earned": 12.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Events and prices are filtered to the as-of cutoff", "max_points": 4.0, "passed": true, "points": 4.0 }, { "criterion": "Training labels complete before prediction and latest event is excluded", "max_points": 4.0, "passed": true, "points": 4.0 }, { "criterion": "As-released event timestamps are retained", "max_points": 4.0, "passed": true, "points": 4.0 }, { "criterion": "Daily price reference retains a final-bar timestamp", "max_points": 1.5, "passed": false, "points": 0 }, { "criterion": "Historical original/correction pairs are complete", "max_points": 1.5, "passed": false, "points": 0 } ], "label": "Point-in-time and leakage controls", "limitation": "Capped at 12/15: the daily panel lacks a retained final-bar timestamp and historical original/correction completeness is not guaranteed.", "status": "PARTIAL", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "RECONCILIATION", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "All base observations are typed and reconciliations recompute within explicit units/tolerances", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Placement cohort-to-contract reconciliations recompute within head tolerances", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Accounting and reconciliation", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 }, { "dimension_id": "CONTRACT_HORIZONS", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Fixed contracts are used without continuous stitching", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "A unique, fully estimated near/mid/deferred D1/D5/D20/D40 fixed-contract grid is present", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Contract and horizon specificity", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 }, { "dimension_id": "MODEL_GOVERNANCE", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Operational promotion is false", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 }, { "criterion": "Predictive edge remains explicitly unproven", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 }, { "criterion": "Calibration remains explicitly incomplete", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 }, { "criterion": "Pricing authority and execution points are zero", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 } ], "label": "Model governance without promotion leakage", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 }, { "dimension_id": "FORWARD_ACCOUNTABILITY", "earned": 9.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Append-only registry freeze hashes validate", "max_points": 2.0, "passed": true, "points": 2.0 }, { "criterion": "Prior sibling checkpoint detects single-file tail loss", "max_points": 1.0, "passed": true, "points": 1.0 }, { "criterion": "An external protected/WORM ledger anchor exists", "max_points": 1.0, "passed": false, "points": 0 }, { "criterion": "Forecast IDs are deterministic and issuance is deduplicated", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Open and matured-unresolved outcomes remain explicit and unscored", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "At least 36 independent forward report releases and 10 unique releases per claimed horizon are resolved", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": false, "points": 0 } ], "label": "Immutable forward forecast accountability", "limitation": "0 correlated forecast cells across 0 independent report releases are resolved. Same-report roles, horizons, and revisions do not inflate the independent-release threshold. The sibling checkpoint is best-effort and no external WORM anchor exists; accountability is partial and predictive profitability is not graded.", "status": "PARTIAL", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "OPERATIONAL_ISOLATION", "earned": 15.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Base radar has no decision or WOW effect", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Registry writes only below the sibling radar root and the required runtime permission probe passes", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "No live-trade use, auto-promotion, or execution points", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Operational and WOW Command isolation", "status": "PASS", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "TRANSPARENCY", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Complete model card states purpose, target, data, leakage controls, limitations, and governance", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Scorecard names a frozen baseline and baseline-relative primary metric", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Model-card and baseline transparency", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 } ], "eligibility": { "operational_promotion_eligible": false, "predictive_profitability_grade_eligible": false, "status": "ELIGIBLE_SYSTEM_QUALITY_ONLY", "system_quality_grade_eligible": true }, "explicit_exclusions": [ "predictive profitability", "tradable edge", "live execution quality", "risk-adjusted returns" ], "max_points": 0, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "profitability_claim": false, "rubric_id": "ALPHA_SYSTEM_QUALITY_NON_PROFITABILITY_V1", "schema_version": "alpha.system_quality_audit.v1", "scope": "SYSTEM_DESIGN_DATA_INTEGRITY_GOVERNANCE_AND_ACCOUNTABILITY", "score": { "earned": 91.0, "grade": "A-", "maximum": 100.0, "normalized_10": 9.1 }, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "theses": [ { "active_alert_ids": [ "later_fed_pipeline_tightening", "weight_offsets_head_decline", "trade_cushions_domestic_availability" ], "confirmation": "Later marketings and slaughter tighten after placement cohorts roll forward while meat cushions fade.", "contradictions": [ "cof_on_feed_head", "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs" ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "cof_placements_head", "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "beef_exports_ytd_cwe" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "current through 18 months", "invalidation": "Placements recover or meat availability remains ample enough to prevent the expected tightening.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "PRIMARY_WORKING_HYPOTHESIS", "state": "TIGHTENING_LATER_WITH_MEAT_CUSHIONS_NOW", "thesis_id": "later_head_tightness_near_meat_cushion", "title": "Later fed-cattle tightness, buffered near-term beef availability" }, { "confirmation": "Weights, imports, dairy-beef supply, or weak exports continue replacing domestic fed-cattle tonnage.", "contradictions": [ "cof_placements_head", "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots" ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "current through 12 months", "invalidation": "Weights normalize and trade cushions reverse before placements recover.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "COMPETING_HYPOTHESIS", "thesis_id": "meat_availability_outlasts_head_shortage", "title": "Beef availability stays adequate longer than cattle head counts imply" }, { "confirmation": "Verified capacity exits or sustained shift reductions tighten the hook-to-cattle balance.", "contradictions": [ "No verified plant closure is inferred from margin data alone." ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "cof_marketings_head", "weekly_fi_slaughter_head" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "3-24 months", "invalidation": "Margins recover and observed capacity remains stable.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "COMPETING_HYPOTHESIS", "thesis_id": "capacity_rationalization_changes_leverage", "title": "Processing-capacity rationalization changes packer and feedyard leverage" } ], "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "validation": { "all_units_typed": true, "decision_effect": "NONE", "failed_reconciliations": [], "futures_pricing_model_active": false, "maximum_execution_points": 0, "missing_core_metrics": [], "missing_inputs": [], "numeric_forecast_policy": "No forward numeric value is emitted until an independently validated model supplies it.", "point_in_time_only": true, "promotion_gate_passed": false, "semantic_vintage_chain_validation": "PASS_WITH_LEGACY_PREFIX", "semantic_vintage_checkpoint_prior_state": "PASS", "semantic_vintage_checkpoint_validation": "PASS", "semantic_vintage_external_anchor_present": false, "semantic_vintage_parse_strict": true, "semantic_vintages": true, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "vintage_record_hash": "c6cc13ac3ca98fba2b95e9b4a3754505cb921c4754d150e1670aceb970e47642", "warnings": [] }, { "balance_sheet": { "as_of": "2026-07-15", "periods": [ { "period": "Current feedlot inventory", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current fed-cattle inventory.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 27, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Cattle on feed", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_on_feed_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "feedlot_inventory", "unit": "head", "value": 11682000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": 2.0 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Incoming placement pipeline", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Incoming fed-cattle pipeline.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 27, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Monthly placements", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_placements_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "incoming_pipeline", "unit": "head", "value": 1704000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -10.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 27, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements under 600 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_less_than_600_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 320000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 27, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 600-699 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_600_699_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 240000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 27, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 700-799 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_700_799_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 400000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 27, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 800-899 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_800_899_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 444000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 27, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 900-999 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_900_999_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 225000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 27, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 1,000+ lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_1000_lbs_and_greater", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 75000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "USDA ERS-derived feeder-cattle reservoir outside feedlots; lower inventory can constrain future placements.", "freshness": { "cadence": "Quarterly USDA ERS feeder supply", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Feeder cattle outside feedlots", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_FEEDER_SUPPLY" ], "stage": "feeder_supply", "unit": "thousand_head", "value": 18776.97, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-04-01", "yoy_pct": 2.2631 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Fed-cattle outflow and meat production", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Fed-cattle outflow toward slaughter.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 27, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Monthly marketings", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_marketings_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "fed_outflow", "unit": "head", "value": 1551000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -12.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Non-marketing feedlot disappearance.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 27, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Other disappearance", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_other_disappearance_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "fed_outflow", "unit": "head", "value": 55000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -11.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Observed weekly cattle head throughput.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-15T21:30:03", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Weekly federally inspected slaughter", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "slaughter", "unit": "head", "value": 529000.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": -7.5175 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Pounds produced per slaughtered animal.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-15T21:30:03", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Average dressed weight", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "yield", "unit": "lb_per_head", "value": 889.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": 2.6559 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Observed weekly beef output combines head throughput and carcass yield.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-15T21:30:03", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Weekly beef production", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "meat_output", "unit": "million_lb", "value": 469.1, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": -5.0789 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Counterfactual pounds effect holding year-ago dressed weight constant.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-15T21:30:03", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Head-count contribution to weekly production change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_head_count_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "production_bridge", "unit": "million_lb", "value": -37.238, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Incremental pounds attributable to the dressed-weight change at current slaughter.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-15T21:30:03", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Dressed-weight contribution to weekly production change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "production_bridge", "unit": "million_lb", "value": 12.167, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": null } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Trade and domestic availability", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Imported beef adds to domestic carcass-weight-equivalent availability.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date beef imports", "metadata": { "ytd_comparable": true, "ytd_through_month": 5 }, "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 2754566570.58, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": 9.9 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Exported beef removes product from domestic availability while reflecting foreign demand.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date beef exports", "metadata": { "ytd_comparable": true, "ytd_through_month": 5 }, "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 978518541.27, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": -17.2 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Imports less exports; this is a product-availability measure, not a fed-cattle-equivalent count.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date net beef imports", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 1776048029.31, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": -1.7187, "economic_read": "Weekly wholesale movement; descriptive context only because its futures validation gate has not passed.", "freshness": { "state": "UNKNOWN" }, "label": "Tuesday Choice/Select average weekly change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "tuesday_cutout_average_change_pct", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_BOXED_TUESDAY" ], "stage": "wholesale_demand", "unit": "percent", "value": -1.7187, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-07", "yoy_pct": null } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Capacity, cash, herd, and policy context", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Standardized box-minus-live operating-spread proxy; not company net income and not a futures timing signal.", "freshness": { "business_release_lag": 0, "calendar_age_days": 0, "expected_report_date": "2026-07-15", "holiday_calendar_note": "Weekday-aware; USDA holiday exceptions may produce WATCH until the next release.", "reason": "Latest expected weekday USDA CEI report is present.", "release_cutoff_ct": "15:45", "report_date": "2026-07-15", "state": "PASS", "status": "PASS", "weekend_aware": true }, "label": "USDA CEI gross packer spread", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_CEI" ], "stage": "processing_economics", "unit": "usd_per_cwt_carcass", "value": -7.7326, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-15", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current operating status constrains or restores feeder-cattle inflow; duration and price impact are not assumed.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Southern livestock port status", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_APHIS" ], "stage": "biological_policy", "unit": "status", "value": "CLOSED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-15", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current cash transmission and feedyard/packer leverage context.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "pass_max_days": 2, "state": "PASS", "watch_max_days": 5 }, "label": "Blended live cash cattle", "metadata": { "change_vs_last_week_usd_per_cwt": null }, "metric_id": "blended_live_cash", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_CASH" ], "stage": "cash_transmission", "unit": "usd_per_cwt_live", "value": 239.2, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-15", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Replacement intentions inform herd rebuilding capacity; they do not guarantee retained females or calf-crop growth.", "freshness": { "cadence": "Annual USDA ERS herd replacement", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Intended heifer replacements", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "intended_heifer_replacements", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_HERD_REPLACEMENT" ], "stage": "breeding_herd", "unit": "thousand_head", "value": 8618.8, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-01-01", "yoy_pct": 0.361 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" } ], "reconciliations": [ { "actual": 1704000.0, "check_id": "cof_placement_buckets", "expected": 1704000.0, "name": "Placement weight buckets sum to placements", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 1000.0, "unit": "head" }, { "actual": 11682000.0, "check_id": "cof_head_flow", "expected": 11682000.0, "name": "Opening inventory plus placements less outflows equals closing inventory", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 1000.0, "unit": "head" }, { "actual": 469.1, "check_id": "weekly_production_bridge", "expected": 469.12899999999996, "name": "Year-ago production plus head effect plus weight effect reconciles to current production", "passed": true, "residual": -0.029, "tolerance": 2.3455000000000004, "unit": "million_lb" }, { "actual": 1776048029.31, "check_id": "net_trade_identity", "expected": 1776048029.31, "name": "Imports less exports equals net imports", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 0.01, "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent" } ], "status": "RECONCILED", "summary": { "beef_supply_change_pct": -5.0789, "dressed_weight_yoy_pct": 2.6559, "exports_ytd_change_pct": -17.2, "imports_ytd_change_pct": 9.9, "observation_count": 24, "reconciliation_count": 4, "reconciliation_pass_count": 4, "slaughter_yoy_pct": -7.5175, "source_count": 9, "source_ledger_row_count": 9, "status": "RECONCILED", "weight_offset_of_head_decline_pct": 32.67 }, "unit_policy": "No cattle-head-to-beef-pound conversion is made without an exposed observed weight or typed derivation." }, "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "change_alerts": [ { "alert_id": "later_fed_pipeline_tightening", "counter_evidence": "Current cattle on feed are +2.0% YoY.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "TIGHTENING_LATER", "horizon": "3-18 months", "invalidation": "Placements and feeder availability normalize, or the livestock-border constraint is formally removed.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "WATCH", "summary": "The later fed-cattle pipeline is tightening, but this is not a futures signal.", "triggers": [ { "label": "Placements -10.0% YoY", "metric_id": "cof_placements_head" }, { "label": "Southern livestock ports closed", "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports" } ] }, { "alert_id": "weight_offsets_head_decline", "counter_evidence": "Reported weekly beef production remains -5.1% YoY.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "MEAT_CUSHION", "horizon": "current to 3 months", "invalidation": "Dressed weights stop offsetting lower head throughput.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "ACTIVE", "summary": "Heavier carcasses are replacing part of the beef tonnage lost to lower slaughter.", "triggers": [ { "label": "Slaughter -7.5% YoY", "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head" }, { "label": "Dressed weight +2.7% YoY", "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs" } ] }, { "alert_id": "trade_cushions_domestic_availability", "counter_evidence": "Product mix and imported lean are not fully interchangeable with Choice fed-beef cuts.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "DOMESTIC_AVAILABILITY_CUSHION", "horizon": "current to 6 months", "invalidation": "Imports reverse lower and exports recover enough to remove the net availability cushion.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "ACTIVE", "summary": "Trade flows are cushioning domestic beef availability despite tighter cattle head counts.", "triggers": [ { "label": "YTD imports +9.9%", "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe" }, { "label": "YTD exports -17.2%", "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe" } ] } ], "composer_contract": { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "composer_version": "alpha.structural_radar.composer.v2.0.0", "decision_effect": "NONE", "max_points": 0, "mode": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "conditional_contract_estimates": { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "contract_estimates": [ { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 245.4, 250.825 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 248.425, "contract_role": "near", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-06-19T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d1", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": 0.374873, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-22" }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 246.75, "predicted_response_pct": 0.676151, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-08", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -0.548147, 1.653802 ], "symbol": "LEQ6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 242.6, 254.025 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 248.65, "contract_role": "near", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-06-25T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d5", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": -0.273556, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-26" }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 246.75, "predicted_response_pct": 0.765928, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-08", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.683544, 2.951848 ], "symbol": "LEQ6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 240.2, 264.075 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 249.55, "contract_role": "near", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-07-16T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d20", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "status": "OPEN_OR_NOT_YET_OBSERVABLE", "target_date": null }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 246.75, "predicted_response_pct": 1.131717, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-08", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -2.650467, 7.024054 ], "symbol": "LEQ6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 242.55, 269.175 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 251.75, "contract_role": "near", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-08-13T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d40", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "status": "OPEN_OR_NOT_YET_OBSERVABLE", "target_date": null }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 246.75, "predicted_response_pct": 2.027405, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-08", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.702378, 9.086627 ], "symbol": "LEQ6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 239.2, 243.675 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 241.825, "contract_role": "mid", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-06-19T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d1", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": 0.531029, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-22" }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 240.1, "predicted_response_pct": 0.721589, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-10", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -0.374333, 1.488104 ], "symbol": "LEV6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 236.45, 246.775 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 242.075, "contract_role": "mid", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-06-25T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d5", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", 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"calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "directional_accuracy": null, "forward_resolved_count": 0, "forward_resolved_forecast_count": 0, "forward_test_status": "OPEN_BOOK_NO_FORWARD_RESOLUTIONS", "interval_coverage": null, "mae": null, "mae_skill_vs_baseline": null, "matured_data_pending_count": 0, "mean_bias": null, "open_forecast_count": 0, "performance_status": "UNPROVEN", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "profitability_claim": false, "resolved_forecast_count": 0, "rmse": null, "schema_version": "alpha.structural_forecast_scorecard.v1", "skill_vs_baseline": null, "status": "NO_RESOLVED_FORWARD_FORECASTS", "unique_resolved_release_revision_count": 0, "unique_resolved_report_release_count": 0, "validation_mode": "IMMUTABLE_GENUINELY_FORWARD_OOS" }, "frozen_forecasts": [], "futures_implications": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESES", "generated_at_ct": "2026-07-16T05:50:22.080598-05:00", "headline": { "confidence": "HIGH", "dominant_stage": "placements_vs_meat_availability", "horizon": "current through 18 months", "state": "TIGHTENING_LATER_WITH_MEAT_CUSHIONS_NOW", "text": "The later fed-cattle pipeline is tightening while heavier carcasses and trade flows cushion beef availability now.", "what_changed": "No semantic structural change since the prior frozen vintage." }, "history": { "changed_metric_ids": [], "previous_fingerprint": "cac7d19bb17876f2ae93fbf996eeaa5d3d8b6d0ab8aa7482e57f4e36bf5694e6", "semantic_changed": true, "vintage_count": 11, "vintage_recorded": true }, "live_trade_status": "DISABLED", "max_points": 0, "mode": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "model_card": { "baseline": "Expanding historical mean inside V2 walk-forward diagnostics; zero-change baseline in the immutable forward registry.", "calibration_policy": "No calibrated claim until at least 36 independent genuinely forward report releases and at least 10 unique releases per claimed horizon; correlated role-by-horizon cells and same-report revisions do not count as independent releases. Current status remains NOT_CALIBRATED.", "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "data_sources": [ "USDA NASS COF as-released event rows", "Databento Live Cattle fixed-contract daily bars" ], "evaluation_metrics": [ "MAE", "baseline-relative MAE skill", "directional accuracy", "prediction correlation", "80% interval coverage" ], "fairness_scope": "Not applicable to people; monitor contract-month and market-regime coverage instead.", "feature_families": [ "USDA COF year-over-year release values", "activity-month seasonality" ], "features": [ "on_feed_yoy_delta_pp", "placements_yoy_delta_pp", "marketings_yoy_delta_pp", "activity_month_season_sin", "activity_month_season_cos" ], "governance": { "auto_promotion_path": false, "decision_effect": "NONE", "max_points": 0, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "horizon_definitions": { "d1": "1 actual later fixed-contract session(s)", "d20": "20 actual later fixed-contract session(s)", "d40": "40 actual later fixed-contract session(s)", "d5": "5 actual later fixed-contract session(s)" }, "horizons": [ "d1", "d5", "d20", "d40" ], "intended_uses": [ "research", "hypothesis tracking", "forward accountability", "contract-window comparison" ], "known_limitations": [ "No contemporaneous consensus-surprise feature", "Conditional report response is not all-factor intrinsic value", "Weekday target scheduling is conservative and is reconciled to actual fixed-contract sessions at resolution", "No demonstrated forward predictive edge yet", "No transaction costs, slippage, liquidity, or executable strategy economics" ], "leakage_controls": [ "As-released report values only", "Latest event excluded from training", "Training labels must complete before prediction", "Forward registry rejects horizons already mature at first issuance" ], "lifecycle_status": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "model_name": "Structural Futures V2 fixed-contract COF response", "model_type": "Expanding-window ridge regression with fixed-contract event responses", "model_version": "cof-fixed-contract-ridge-v2.1.0", "monitoring": { "baseline_relative_scorecard": true, "calibration_minimum_unique_report_releases": 36, "immutable_forecast_book": true, "open_outcomes_retained": true }, "owner": "Alpha Structural Radar research boundary", "prediction_population": "Highest-volume unexpired Live Cattle fixed contract and the next two listed expiries on the release date.", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "prohibited_uses": [ "WOW Command input", "official decision input", "live trading", "position sizing", "intrinsic fair-value claim" ], "promotion_criteria": [ "At least 36 independent genuinely forward report releases", "At least 10 unique report releases per claimed horizon", "Positive baseline-relative MAE skill with stable directional evidence", "Independent governance review; never automatic promotion" ], "promotion_gate_passed": false, "purpose": "Estimate a conditional fixed-contract price response after a Cattle on Feed release.", "reproducibility": "Each issuance freezes the implementation SHA-256, fitted ridge coefficients/normalization/penalty, exact training-row identity hash, event features, source hashes, and model-spec hash.", "schema_version": "alpha.model_card.structural_futures_v2.v1", "status": "RESEARCH_ONLY_UNVALIDATED", "target": "Nth actual later RTH last-trade close versus same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close before the after-close COF release; these are not official CME settlements.", "target_definition": "Nth actual later RTH last-trade close versus same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close before the after-close COF release; these are not official CME settlements.", "training": { "continuous_or_stitched_prices_used": false, "fixed_contract_only": true, "method": "Ridge regression fit only to fully labeled events available before each prediction timestamp.", "minimum_train_events": 24, "walk_forward_evaluation": true }, "training_cutoff": "Strictly before each prediction release; every included label must also have completed before that release.", "uncertainty": "Residual 10th/90th-percentile response interval where enough walk-forward residuals exist.", "validation_method": "Expanding-window point-in-time walk-forward", "validation_protocol": "Expanding-window, point-in-time walk-forward evaluation against an expanding-mean diagnostic baseline." }, "module": "ALPHA_STRUCTURAL_RADAR_V1", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "previous_vintage_record_hash": "c6cc13ac3ca98fba2b95e9b4a3754505cb921c4754d150e1670aceb970e47642", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "revision_ledger": [ { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_on_feed_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_placements_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_marketings_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_other_disappearance_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_less_than_600_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_600_699_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_700_799_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_800_899_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_900_999_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_1000_lbs_and_greater", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_head_count_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-15" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-15" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "blended_live_cash", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-15" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "tuesday_cutout_average_change_pct", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-07" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-04-01" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "intended_heifer_replacements", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-01-01" } ], "schema_version": "1.0.0", "semantic_fingerprint": "389ab1fb54f4eddd1e62d72eb16732f9002402c80c16844c73db38b71006c9a7", "separation_contract": { "auto_promotion_path": false, "calls_decision_components": false, "official_decision_effect": "NONE", "radar_write_root": "/opt/alpha_structural_radar", "reads_decision_outputs": false, "source_root_read_only": "/opt/alpha_current", "wow_command_effect": "NONE", "write_allowlist": [ "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs/structural_radar_status.json", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs/structural_radar_history.json", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/data/structural_radar/vintages.jsonl", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/state/structural_radar.lock" ], "writes_decision_outputs": false }, "source_ledger": [ { "error": null, "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 27, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-06-18", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "6beeb3ce2e1839be9d5824d44162aeae10556b48894f0571e45388b4b501fe38", "source_id": "USDA_NASS_COF", "source_module": "cattle_on_feed", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/cattle_on_feed_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-05", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "f18d9da31c0c50e3cc977a8916366a83a72d2f2db5fb64e62a89544e48f0b294", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_TRADE", "source_module": "import_exports", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/import_exports_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "business_release_lag": 0, "calendar_age_days": 0, "expected_report_date": "2026-07-15", "holiday_calendar_note": "Weekday-aware; USDA holiday exceptions may produce WATCH until the next release.", "reason": "Latest expected weekday USDA CEI report is present.", "release_cutoff_ct": "15:45", "report_date": "2026-07-15", "state": "PASS", "status": "PASS", "weekend_aware": true }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-15 after 15:30 CT", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "f3741dc20e468bf618104f2ca7b3255e7606e3a7fb0c1790ddda7abfb3db5dd8", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_CEI", "source_module": "ALPHA_PACKER_ECONOMICS_V1", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/packer_economics_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-15", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "13f4ccc87d2311b0c57a33b72fcc284bad981cc97661b711e85770dfa7b8352f", "source_id": "USDA_APHIS", "source_module": "animal_health", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/animal_health_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "pass_max_days": 2, "state": "PASS", "watch_max_days": 5 }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-15 daily publication", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "71b0338cb77714aa644e6661b3a611053a114de03ec36f687190f9b3b182ed7e", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_CASH", "source_module": "cash_cattle", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/cash_cattle_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "state": "UNKNOWN" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-07", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "c5bcdbe0f506542c06ebbc7e562c080bb298453e7afe5363f585d5177b6f59c2", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_BOXED_TUESDAY", "source_module": "boxed_beef_tuesday_history", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/boxed_beef_tuesday_history.json", "upstream_status": null, "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-15T21:30:03", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-10", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "2855df5b9527718daf6f9abf12a7a5b087b13463504bfe663573c8651b721150", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT", "source_module": "weekly_kill_weights", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/weekly_kill_weights.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "cadence": "Quarterly USDA ERS feeder supply", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-04-01", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "32d71256ffb42497325ea439db5ed6a00752be99019c9ab73562950ad87f581b", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_FEEDER_SUPPLY", "source_module": "ers_feeder_supply", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/ers_livestock_domestic_data/livestock-data-machine-readable-files/FeederCattleSuppliesOutsideFeedlots.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "DERIVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "cadence": "Annual USDA ERS herd replacement", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-01-01", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "281e3d55e23156459116f1b342105d36eb78c6d3295597ee52f60c846528960d", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_HERD_REPLACEMENT", "source_module": "ers_heifer_replacements", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/ers_livestock_domestic_data/livestock-data-machine-readable-files/heifersenteringherd.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" } ], "status": "PASS", "structural_futures_v2": { "cohort_timing_bridge": { "assumptions": { "contract_mapping": "Each possible market-ready day maps to the nearest still-unexpired Feb/Apr/Jun/Aug/Oct/Dec Live Cattle contract midpoint. Expiry uses the last weekday as an approximation and does not encode exchange holidays.", "days_on_feed": { "1000_lbs_and_greater": [ 50, 110 ], "600_699_lbs": [ 170, 230 ], "700_799_lbs": [ 140, 200 ], "800_899_lbs": [ 110, 170 ], "900_999_lbs": [ 80, 140 ], "less_than_600_lbs": [ 190, 250 ] }, "exposure_weighting": "Placement day and days-on-feed are modeled as independent discrete uniform assumptions, then convolved. These are scenario weights, not empirical probabilities.", "interpretation": "Head-equivalent exposure is a timing bridge, not deliverable supply, open interest, fair value, or a price forecast.", "placement_date_uncertainty": "Earliest uses activity-month start; latest uses activity-month end." }, "buckets": [ { "bucket_id": "less_than_600_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 209836.1, "delta_head_equivalent": -9836.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 219672.1, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.655738 }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 110163.9, "delta_head_equivalent": -5163.9, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 115327.9, "symbol": "LEG7", "window_day_share": 0.344262 } ], "current_head": 320000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 250, "minimum": 190 }, "delta_head": -15000, "delta_pct": -4.478, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-11-07", "latest": "2027-02-05" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-11-25", "p50": "2026-12-22", "p90": "2027-01-18", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 335000 }, { "bucket_id": "600_699_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 11549.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -1684.3, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 13233.7, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.048123 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 211189.8, "delta_head_equivalent": -30798.5, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 241988.4, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.879958 }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 17260.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -2517.2, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 19777.9, "symbol": "LEG7", "window_day_share": 0.07192 } ], "current_head": 240000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 230, "minimum": 170 }, "delta_head": -35000, "delta_pct": -12.727, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-10-18", "latest": "2027-01-16" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-11-05", "p50": "2026-12-02", "p90": "2026-12-29", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 275000 }, { "bucket_id": "700_799_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 183606.6, "delta_head_equivalent": -22950.8, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 206557.4, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.459016 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 216393.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -27049.2, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 243442.6, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.540984 } ], "current_head": 400000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 200, "minimum": 140 }, "delta_head": -50000, "delta_pct": -11.111, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-09-18", "latest": "2026-12-17" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-10-06", "p50": "2026-11-02", "p90": "2026-11-29", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 450000 }, { "bucket_id": "800_899_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 21366.5, "delta_head_equivalent": -3464.8, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 24831.3, "symbol": "LEQ6", "window_day_share": 0.048123 }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 382483.3, "delta_head_equivalent": -62024.3, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 444507.7, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.861449 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 40150.2, "delta_head_equivalent": -6510.8, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 46661.0, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.090428 } ], "current_head": 444000, 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"role": "near", "symbol": "LEQ6" }, { "cohort_timing_exposure": { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 706142.8, "delta_head_equivalent": -89816.5, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 795959.3, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEV6" }, "contract_id": "LE-2026-10", "horizons": [ { "conditional_fair_value": 241.825, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 239.2, 243.675 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d1", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": 0.531029, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-22" }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.721589, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -0.374333, 1.488104 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 242.075, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 236.45, 246.775 ], "estimate_status": 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"excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-22" }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.697705, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -0.196348, 1.335889 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 241.175, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 235.65, 246.15 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d5", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": -0.230005, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-26" }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.857373, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.450258, 2.941915 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 241.675, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 234.8, 254.525 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d20", "latest_observed_outcome": { 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"value_kind": "OBSERVED_RELEASE" }, { "known_at_ct": "2026-06-18T14:00:00-05:00", "observation_id": "marketings_yoy_delta_pp", "unit": "percentage_point", "value": -12.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED_RELEASE" }, { "known_at_ct": "2026-06-18T14:00:00-05:00", "observation_id": "season_sin", "unit": "cyclical_component", "value": 0.5, "value_kind": "DERIVED_FROM_ACTIVITY_MONTH" }, { "known_at_ct": "2026-06-18T14:00:00-05:00", "observation_id": "season_cos", "unit": "cyclical_component", "value": -0.866025, "value_kind": "DERIVED_FROM_ACTIVITY_MONTH" } ], "provenance": { "source_sha256": "da477404f359a36b9d2b412f0dfdeaa4f3b05596c898c0655184124228fa9fbf", "source_url": "https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795942/cofd0626.txt" }, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "release_revision_id": "795942@2026-06-18T14:00:00-05:00", "release_timestamp_ct": "2026-06-18T14:00:00-05:00", "release_timestamp_kind": "RECORDED_SOURCE_TIMESTAMP", "research_only": true, "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false } }, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "research_only": true, "schema_version": "alpha.structural_futures.v2", "semantic_fingerprint": "52e4140380e41a33f6b0353216e1b6bcbc1ba2411f8e11669b884369074391b2", "source_ledger": [ { "path": "/opt/alpha_current/data/cattle_on_feed/report_events.csv", "read_only": true, "rows": 114, "sha256": "8c9fa84f4a2ce005f1a3e636a6a01f0051000c3b69de93c11e649ab753fa166b", "source_id": "USDA_NASS_COF_AS_RELEASED" }, { "path": "/opt/alpha_current/data/cattle_on_feed/le_fixed_ohlcv_1d.parquet", "read_only": true, "rows": 14261, "sha256": "cbc95c9a5605aa7346752751eb2dd1bc36d6d35e9f0a38e481e1076c2e091f06", "source_id": "DATABENTO_LE_FIXED_CONTRACT_DAILY" } ], "status": "PASS", "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "validation": { "all_training_labels_completed_before_prediction": true, "cohort_reconciliations_passed": true, "corrections_after_response_anchor_excluded": true, "data_status": { "event_rows": 114, "first_event_date": "2017-01-27", "fixed_contract_rows": 14261, "latest_event_date": "2026-06-18", "latest_event_price_reference_available": true, "price_first_date": "2020-01-02", "price_last_date": "2026-07-15", "response_panel_rows": 231 }, "events_filtered_to_as_of_cutoff": true, "historical_correction_policy": "Recorded same-date revisions are cutoff-aware. Later-date corrections are excluded from the report-response panel so they cannot be paired with an already-observed original-report return path; displaced originals are not guaranteed recoverable for every historical USDA correction.", "historical_original_corrections_complete": false, "latest_event_excluded_from_training": true, "model_gate_is_not_operational_gate": true, "numeric_forecast_policy": "No estimate is emitted with insufficient prior history; no model estimate affects WOW or decisions.", "point_in_time_release_timestamps": true, "price_reference_is_official_settlement": false, "price_reference_timestamp_retained": false, "price_rows_filtered_to_as_of_cutoff": true, "price_rows_unique_by_date_contract": true }, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "system_quality_audit": { "accountability_status": "PARTIAL", "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "critical_gates": { "decision_isolation_gate": true, "immutable_registry_gate": true, "no_operational_promotion_gate": true, "no_predictive_skill_claim_gate": true, "overall_health_gate": true, "point_in_time_gate": true, "reconciliation_gate": true, "runtime_permission_probe_gate": true, "source_alignment_and_price_freshness_gate": true, "wow_isolation_gate": true }, "critical_gates_passed": true, "decision_effect": "NONE", "dimensions": [ { "dimension_id": "SOURCE_PROVENANCE", "earned": 15.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "At least eight unique structural sources have explicit non-stale freshness, observed-at values, and fingerprints", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Every base ledger row is identified, fingerprinted, and read-only", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Both required V2 sources are nonempty, read-only, and SHA-256 fingerprinted", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Base COF and V2 latest releases align, and the fixed-contract panel is current", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Base structural vintages parse strictly, checkpoint tail loss, and chain new semantic records", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 } ], "label": "Source provenance and semantic integrity", "status": "PASS", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "POINT_IN_TIME", "earned": 12.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Events and prices are filtered to the as-of cutoff", "max_points": 4.0, "passed": true, "points": 4.0 }, { "criterion": "Training labels complete before prediction and latest event is excluded", "max_points": 4.0, "passed": true, "points": 4.0 }, { "criterion": "As-released event timestamps are retained", "max_points": 4.0, "passed": true, "points": 4.0 }, { "criterion": "Daily price reference retains a final-bar timestamp", "max_points": 1.5, "passed": false, "points": 0 }, { "criterion": "Historical original/correction pairs are complete", "max_points": 1.5, "passed": false, "points": 0 } ], "label": "Point-in-time and leakage controls", "limitation": 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"Contract and horizon specificity", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 }, { "dimension_id": "MODEL_GOVERNANCE", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Operational promotion is false", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 }, { "criterion": "Predictive edge remains explicitly unproven", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 }, { "criterion": "Calibration remains explicitly incomplete", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 }, { "criterion": "Pricing authority and execution points are zero", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 } ], "label": "Model governance without promotion leakage", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 }, { "dimension_id": "FORWARD_ACCOUNTABILITY", "earned": 9.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Append-only registry freeze hashes validate", "max_points": 2.0, "passed": true, "points": 2.0 }, { "criterion": "Prior sibling checkpoint detects single-file tail loss", "max_points": 1.0, "passed": true, "points": 1.0 }, { "criterion": 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Same-report roles, horizons, and revisions do not inflate the independent-release threshold. The sibling checkpoint is best-effort and no external WORM anchor exists; accountability is partial and predictive profitability is not graded.", "status": "PARTIAL", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "OPERATIONAL_ISOLATION", "earned": 15.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Base radar has no decision or WOW effect", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Registry writes only below the sibling radar root and the required runtime permission probe passes", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "No live-trade use, auto-promotion, or execution points", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Operational and WOW Command isolation", "status": "PASS", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "TRANSPARENCY", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Complete model card states purpose, target, data, leakage controls, limitations, and governance", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": 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"later_fed_pipeline_tightening", "weight_offsets_head_decline", "trade_cushions_domestic_availability" ], "confirmation": "Later marketings and slaughter tighten after placement cohorts roll forward while meat cushions fade.", "contradictions": [ "cof_on_feed_head", "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs" ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "cof_placements_head", "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "beef_exports_ytd_cwe" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "current through 18 months", "invalidation": "Placements recover or meat availability remains ample enough to prevent the expected tightening.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "PRIMARY_WORKING_HYPOTHESIS", "state": "TIGHTENING_LATER_WITH_MEAT_CUSHIONS_NOW", "thesis_id": "later_head_tightness_near_meat_cushion", "title": "Later fed-cattle tightness, buffered near-term beef availability" }, { "confirmation": "Weights, imports, dairy-beef supply, or weak exports continue replacing domestic fed-cattle tonnage.", "contradictions": [ "cof_placements_head", "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots" ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "current through 12 months", "invalidation": "Weights normalize and trade cushions reverse before placements recover.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "COMPETING_HYPOTHESIS", "thesis_id": "meat_availability_outlasts_head_shortage", "title": "Beef availability stays adequate longer than cattle head counts imply" }, { "confirmation": "Verified capacity exits or sustained shift reductions tighten the hook-to-cattle balance.", "contradictions": [ "No verified plant closure is inferred from margin data alone." ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "cof_marketings_head", "weekly_fi_slaughter_head" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "3-24 months", "invalidation": "Margins recover and observed capacity remains stable.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "COMPETING_HYPOTHESIS", "thesis_id": "capacity_rationalization_changes_leverage", "title": "Processing-capacity rationalization changes packer and feedyard leverage" } ], "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "validation": { "all_units_typed": true, "decision_effect": "NONE", "failed_reconciliations": [], "futures_pricing_model_active": false, "maximum_execution_points": 0, "missing_core_metrics": [], "missing_inputs": [], "numeric_forecast_policy": "No forward numeric value is emitted until an independently validated model supplies it.", "point_in_time_only": true, "promotion_gate_passed": false, "semantic_vintage_chain_validation": "PASS_WITH_LEGACY_PREFIX", "semantic_vintage_checkpoint_prior_state": "PASS", "semantic_vintage_checkpoint_validation": "PASS", "semantic_vintage_external_anchor_present": false, "semantic_vintage_parse_strict": true, "semantic_vintages": true, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "vintage_record_hash": "ed4d500b204771a1bcc092273cefc0da7ac091843b78a7f3a38eded9e858a9ff", "warnings": [] }, { "balance_sheet": { "as_of": "2026-07-15", "periods": [ { "period": "Current feedlot inventory", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current fed-cattle inventory.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 28, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Cattle on feed", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_on_feed_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "feedlot_inventory", "unit": "head", "value": 11682000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": 2.0 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Incoming placement pipeline", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Incoming fed-cattle pipeline.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 28, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Monthly placements", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_placements_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "incoming_pipeline", "unit": "head", "value": 1704000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -10.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 28, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements under 600 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_less_than_600_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 320000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 28, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 600-699 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_600_699_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 240000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 28, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 700-799 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_700_799_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 400000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 28, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 800-899 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_800_899_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 444000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 28, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 900-999 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_900_999_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 225000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 28, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 1,000+ lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_1000_lbs_and_greater", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 75000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "USDA ERS-derived feeder-cattle reservoir outside feedlots; lower inventory can constrain future placements.", "freshness": { "cadence": "Quarterly USDA ERS feeder supply", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Feeder cattle outside feedlots", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_FEEDER_SUPPLY" ], "stage": "feeder_supply", "unit": "thousand_head", "value": 18776.97, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-04-01", "yoy_pct": 2.2631 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Fed-cattle outflow and meat production", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Fed-cattle outflow toward slaughter.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 28, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Monthly marketings", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_marketings_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "fed_outflow", "unit": "head", "value": 1551000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -12.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Non-marketing feedlot disappearance.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 28, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Other disappearance", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_other_disappearance_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "fed_outflow", "unit": "head", "value": 55000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -11.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Observed weekly cattle head throughput.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-15T21:30:03", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Weekly federally inspected slaughter", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "slaughter", "unit": "head", "value": 529000.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": -7.5175 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Pounds produced per slaughtered animal.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-15T21:30:03", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Average dressed weight", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "yield", "unit": "lb_per_head", "value": 889.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": 2.6559 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Observed weekly beef output combines head throughput and carcass yield.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-15T21:30:03", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Weekly beef production", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "meat_output", "unit": "million_lb", "value": 469.1, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": -5.0789 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Counterfactual pounds effect holding year-ago dressed weight constant.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-15T21:30:03", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Head-count contribution to weekly production change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_head_count_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "production_bridge", "unit": "million_lb", "value": -37.238, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Incremental pounds attributable to the dressed-weight change at current slaughter.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-15T21:30:03", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Dressed-weight contribution to weekly production change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "production_bridge", "unit": "million_lb", "value": 12.167, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": null } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Trade and domestic availability", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Imported beef adds to domestic carcass-weight-equivalent availability.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date beef imports", "metadata": { "ytd_comparable": true, "ytd_through_month": 5 }, "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 2754566570.58, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": 9.9 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Exported beef removes product from domestic availability while reflecting foreign demand.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date beef exports", "metadata": { "ytd_comparable": true, "ytd_through_month": 5 }, "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 978518541.27, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": -17.2 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Imports less exports; this is a product-availability measure, not a fed-cattle-equivalent count.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date net beef imports", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 1776048029.31, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": -1.7342, "economic_read": "Weekly wholesale movement; descriptive context only because its futures validation gate has not passed.", "freshness": { "expected_latest_tuesday": "2026-07-14", "last_refresh_time_ct": "2026-07-16T06:59:29.597871-05:00", "latest_report_date": "2026-07-14", "reason": "Canonical Tuesday afternoon LM_XB403 history is current and complete.", "state": "PASS", "status_error": null, "status_report_date": "2026-07-14", "status_source_fingerprint": "2027cdf8ed4a7c48d5672b274003150a50154cd4402aaba529e4c6a090a53c4d", "status_source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/boxed_beef/boxed_beef_tuesday_history_status.json" }, "label": "Tuesday Choice/Select average weekly change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "tuesday_cutout_average_change_pct", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_BOXED_TUESDAY" ], "stage": "wholesale_demand", "unit": "percent", "value": -1.7342, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-14", "yoy_pct": null } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Capacity, cash, herd, and policy context", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Standardized box-minus-live operating-spread proxy; not company net income and not a futures timing signal.", "freshness": { "business_release_lag": 0, "calendar_age_days": 1, "expected_report_date": "2026-07-15", "holiday_calendar_note": "Weekday-aware; USDA holiday exceptions may produce WATCH until the next release.", "reason": "Latest expected weekday USDA CEI report is present.", "release_cutoff_ct": "15:45", "report_date": "2026-07-15", "state": "PASS", "status": "PASS", "weekend_aware": true }, "label": "USDA CEI gross packer spread", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_CEI" ], "stage": "processing_economics", "unit": "usd_per_cwt_carcass", "value": -7.7326, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-15", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current operating status constrains or restores feeder-cattle inflow; duration and price impact are not assumed.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Southern livestock port status", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_APHIS" ], "stage": "biological_policy", "unit": "status", "value": "CLOSED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-15", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current cash transmission and feedyard/packer leverage context.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 1, "pass_max_days": 2, "state": "PASS", "watch_max_days": 5 }, "label": "Blended live cash cattle", "metadata": { "change_vs_last_week_usd_per_cwt": null }, "metric_id": "blended_live_cash", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_CASH" ], "stage": "cash_transmission", "unit": "usd_per_cwt_live", "value": 239.2, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-15", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Replacement intentions inform herd rebuilding capacity; they do not guarantee retained females or calf-crop growth.", "freshness": { "cadence": "Annual USDA ERS herd replacement", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Intended heifer replacements", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "intended_heifer_replacements", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_HERD_REPLACEMENT" ], "stage": "breeding_herd", "unit": "thousand_head", "value": 8618.8, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-01-01", "yoy_pct": 0.361 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" } ], "reconciliations": [ { "actual": 1704000.0, "check_id": "cof_placement_buckets", "expected": 1704000.0, "name": "Placement weight buckets sum to placements", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 1000.0, "unit": "head" }, { "actual": 11682000.0, "check_id": "cof_head_flow", "expected": 11682000.0, "name": "Opening inventory plus placements less outflows equals closing inventory", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 1000.0, "unit": "head" }, { "actual": 469.1, "check_id": "weekly_production_bridge", "expected": 469.12899999999996, "name": "Year-ago production plus head effect plus weight effect reconciles to current production", "passed": true, "residual": -0.029, "tolerance": 2.3455000000000004, "unit": "million_lb" }, { "actual": 1776048029.31, "check_id": "net_trade_identity", "expected": 1776048029.31, "name": "Imports less exports equals net imports", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 0.01, "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent" } ], "status": "RECONCILED", "summary": { "beef_supply_change_pct": -5.0789, "dressed_weight_yoy_pct": 2.6559, "exports_ytd_change_pct": -17.2, "imports_ytd_change_pct": 9.9, "observation_count": 24, "reconciliation_count": 4, "reconciliation_pass_count": 4, "slaughter_yoy_pct": -7.5175, "source_count": 9, "source_ledger_row_count": 9, "status": "RECONCILED", "weight_offset_of_head_decline_pct": 32.67 }, "unit_policy": "No cattle-head-to-beef-pound conversion is made without an exposed observed weight or typed derivation." }, "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "change_alerts": [ { "alert_id": "later_fed_pipeline_tightening", "counter_evidence": "Current cattle on feed are +2.0% YoY.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "TIGHTENING_LATER", "horizon": "3-18 months", "invalidation": "Placements and feeder availability normalize, or the livestock-border constraint is formally removed.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "WATCH", "summary": "The later fed-cattle pipeline is tightening, but this is not a futures signal.", "triggers": [ { "label": "Placements -10.0% YoY", "metric_id": "cof_placements_head" }, { "label": "Southern livestock ports closed", "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports" } ] }, { "alert_id": "weight_offsets_head_decline", "counter_evidence": "Reported weekly beef production remains -5.1% YoY.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "MEAT_CUSHION", "horizon": "current to 3 months", "invalidation": "Dressed weights stop offsetting lower head throughput.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "ACTIVE", "summary": "Heavier carcasses are replacing part of the beef tonnage lost to lower slaughter.", "triggers": [ { "label": "Slaughter -7.5% YoY", "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head" }, { "label": "Dressed weight +2.7% YoY", "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs" } ] }, { "alert_id": "trade_cushions_domestic_availability", "counter_evidence": "Product mix and imported lean are not fully interchangeable with Choice fed-beef cuts.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "DOMESTIC_AVAILABILITY_CUSHION", "horizon": "current to 6 months", "invalidation": "Imports reverse lower and exports recover enough to remove the net availability cushion.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "ACTIVE", "summary": "Trade flows are cushioning domestic beef availability despite tighter cattle head counts.", "triggers": [ { "label": "YTD imports +9.9%", "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe" }, { "label": "YTD exports -17.2%", "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe" } ] } ], "composer_contract": { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "composer_version": "alpha.structural_radar.composer.v2.0.0", "decision_effect": "NONE", "max_points": 0, "mode": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, 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"training_cutoff": "Strictly before each prediction release; every included label must also have completed before that release.", "uncertainty": "Residual 10th/90th-percentile response interval where enough walk-forward residuals exist.", "validation_method": "Expanding-window point-in-time walk-forward", "validation_protocol": "Expanding-window, point-in-time walk-forward evaluation against an expanding-mean diagnostic baseline." }, "module": "ALPHA_STRUCTURAL_FORECAST_REGISTRY", "outcome_states": { "MATURED_DATA_PENDING": 0, "OPEN": 0, "RESOLVED": 0 }, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "research_only": true, "safety": { "auto_promotion_path": false, "decision_effect": "NONE", "max_points": 0, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "radar_write_root": "/opt/alpha_structural_radar", "runtime_permission_probe": { "decision_probe_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/decision_status.json", "effective_uid": 997, "method": "NON_MUTATING_OS_ACCESS_EFFECTIVE_IDS", "radar_outputs_path": "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs", "required": true, "results": { "decision_output_writable": false, "radar_outputs_writable": true, "source_root_writable": false }, "source_root": "/opt/alpha_current", "status": "PASS" }, "source_root_read_only": "/opt/alpha_current", "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "wow_command_effect": "NONE", "write_allowlist": [ "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/data/structural_forecast_registry/records.jsonl", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs/structural_forecast_registry_status.json", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/state/structural_forecast_registry.lock" ], "writes_only_below_radar_root": true }, "schema_version": "alpha.structural_forecast_registry.v1", "scorecard": { "baseline": { "baseline_id": "ZERO_CHANGE_FIXED_CONTRACT_V1", "definition": "Zero report-response return from the pre-report fixed-contract close.", "frozen_at_issuance": true }, "by_contract_role": {}, "by_horizon": { "d1": { "baseline_mae_response_pct": null, "interval_80_coverage": null, "mae_skill_vs_zero_change_baseline": null, "model_directional_accuracy": null, "model_mae_response_pct": null, "model_mean_error_response_pct": null, "model_rmse_response_pct": null, "n_resolved": 0, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "unique_release_revision_count": 0, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, "d20": { "baseline_mae_response_pct": null, "interval_80_coverage": null, "mae_skill_vs_zero_change_baseline": null, "model_directional_accuracy": null, "model_mae_response_pct": null, "model_mean_error_response_pct": null, "model_rmse_response_pct": null, "n_resolved": 0, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "unique_release_revision_count": 0, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, "d40": { "baseline_mae_response_pct": null, "interval_80_coverage": null, "mae_skill_vs_zero_change_baseline": null, "model_directional_accuracy": null, "model_mae_response_pct": null, "model_mean_error_response_pct": null, "model_rmse_response_pct": null, "n_resolved": 0, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "unique_release_revision_count": 0, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, "d5": { "baseline_mae_response_pct": null, "interval_80_coverage": null, "mae_skill_vs_zero_change_baseline": null, "model_directional_accuracy": null, "model_mae_response_pct": null, "model_mean_error_response_pct": null, "model_rmse_response_pct": null, "n_resolved": 0, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "unique_release_revision_count": 0, "unique_report_release_count": 0 } }, "evaluation_population": "Only forecasts frozen while their target was genuinely open and later resolved from the same fixed contract.", "metric_policy": { "open_forecasts_scored": false, "primary": "MAE response percentage points relative to baseline MAE", "secondary": [ "RMSE", "mean error", "directional accuracy", "80% interval coverage" ] }, "overall": { "baseline_mae_response_pct": null, "interval_80_coverage": null, "mae_skill_vs_zero_change_baseline": null, "model_directional_accuracy": null, "model_mae_response_pct": null, "model_mean_error_response_pct": null, "model_rmse_response_pct": null, "n_resolved": 0, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "unique_release_revision_count": 0, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "profitability_claim": false, "schema_version": "alpha.structural_forecast_scorecard.v1" }, "status": "PASS", "warnings": [] }, "forecast_scorecard": { "baseline": "ZERO_CHANGE_FIXED_CONTRACT_V1", "baseline_name": "ZERO_CHANGE_FIXED_CONTRACT_V1", "breakdowns": [ { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d1", "label": "D1", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d5", "label": "D5", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d20", "label": "D20", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d40", "label": "D40", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 } ], "by_horizon": [ { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d1", "label": "D1", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d5", "label": "D5", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d20", "label": "D20", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d40", "label": "D40", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 } ], "calibration": [], "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "directional_accuracy": null, "forward_resolved_count": 0, "forward_resolved_forecast_count": 0, "forward_test_status": "OPEN_BOOK_NO_FORWARD_RESOLUTIONS", "interval_coverage": null, "mae": null, "mae_skill_vs_baseline": null, "matured_data_pending_count": 0, "mean_bias": null, "open_forecast_count": 0, "performance_status": "UNPROVEN", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "profitability_claim": false, "resolved_forecast_count": 0, "rmse": null, "schema_version": "alpha.structural_forecast_scorecard.v1", "skill_vs_baseline": null, "status": "NO_RESOLVED_FORWARD_FORECASTS", "unique_resolved_release_revision_count": 0, "unique_resolved_report_release_count": 0, "validation_mode": "IMMUTABLE_GENUINELY_FORWARD_OOS" }, "frozen_forecasts": [], "futures_implications": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESES", "generated_at_ct": "2026-07-16T07:01:01.111332-05:00", "headline": { "confidence": "HIGH", "dominant_stage": "placements_vs_meat_availability", "horizon": "current through 18 months", "state": "TIGHTENING_LATER_WITH_MEAT_CUSHIONS_NOW", "text": "The later fed-cattle pipeline is tightening while heavier carcasses and trade flows cushion beef availability now.", "what_changed": "Changed observations: tuesday_cutout_average_change_pct." }, "history": { "changed_metric_ids": [ "tuesday_cutout_average_change_pct" ], "previous_fingerprint": "389ab1fb54f4eddd1e62d72eb16732f9002402c80c16844c73db38b71006c9a7", "semantic_changed": true, "vintage_count": 12, "vintage_recorded": true }, "live_trade_status": "DISABLED", "max_points": 0, "mode": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "model_card": { "baseline": "Expanding historical mean inside V2 walk-forward diagnostics; zero-change baseline in the immutable forward registry.", "calibration_policy": "No calibrated claim until at least 36 independent genuinely forward report releases and at least 10 unique releases per claimed horizon; correlated role-by-horizon cells and same-report revisions do not count as independent releases. Current status remains NOT_CALIBRATED.", "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "data_sources": [ "USDA NASS COF as-released event rows", "Databento Live Cattle fixed-contract daily bars" ], "evaluation_metrics": [ "MAE", "baseline-relative MAE skill", "directional accuracy", "prediction correlation", "80% interval coverage" ], "fairness_scope": "Not applicable to people; monitor contract-month and market-regime coverage instead.", "feature_families": [ "USDA COF year-over-year release values", "activity-month seasonality" ], "features": [ "on_feed_yoy_delta_pp", "placements_yoy_delta_pp", "marketings_yoy_delta_pp", "activity_month_season_sin", "activity_month_season_cos" ], "governance": { "auto_promotion_path": false, "decision_effect": "NONE", "max_points": 0, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "horizon_definitions": { "d1": "1 actual later fixed-contract session(s)", "d20": "20 actual later fixed-contract session(s)", "d40": "40 actual later fixed-contract session(s)", "d5": "5 actual later fixed-contract session(s)" }, "horizons": [ "d1", "d5", "d20", "d40" ], "intended_uses": [ "research", "hypothesis tracking", "forward accountability", "contract-window comparison" ], "known_limitations": [ "No contemporaneous consensus-surprise feature", "Conditional report response is not all-factor intrinsic value", "Weekday target scheduling is conservative and is reconciled to actual fixed-contract sessions at resolution", "No demonstrated forward predictive edge yet", "No transaction costs, slippage, liquidity, or executable strategy economics" ], "leakage_controls": [ "As-released report values only", "Latest event excluded from training", "Training labels must complete before prediction", "Forward registry rejects horizons already mature at first issuance" ], "lifecycle_status": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "model_name": "Structural Futures V2 fixed-contract COF response", "model_type": "Expanding-window ridge regression with fixed-contract event responses", "model_version": "cof-fixed-contract-ridge-v2.1.0", "monitoring": { "baseline_relative_scorecard": true, "calibration_minimum_unique_report_releases": 36, "immutable_forecast_book": true, "open_outcomes_retained": true }, "owner": "Alpha Structural Radar research boundary", "prediction_population": "Highest-volume unexpired Live Cattle fixed contract and the next two listed expiries on the release date.", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "prohibited_uses": [ "WOW Command input", "official decision input", "live trading", "position sizing", "intrinsic fair-value claim" ], "promotion_criteria": [ "At least 36 independent genuinely forward report releases", "At least 10 unique report releases per claimed horizon", "Positive baseline-relative MAE skill with stable directional evidence", "Independent governance review; never automatic promotion" ], "promotion_gate_passed": false, "purpose": "Estimate a conditional fixed-contract price response after a Cattle on Feed release.", "reproducibility": "Each issuance freezes the implementation SHA-256, fitted ridge coefficients/normalization/penalty, exact training-row identity hash, event features, source hashes, and model-spec hash.", "schema_version": "alpha.model_card.structural_futures_v2.v1", "status": "RESEARCH_ONLY_UNVALIDATED", "target": "Nth actual later RTH last-trade close versus same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close before the after-close COF release; these are not official CME settlements.", "target_definition": "Nth actual later RTH last-trade close versus same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close before the after-close COF release; these are not official CME settlements.", "training": { "continuous_or_stitched_prices_used": false, "fixed_contract_only": true, "method": "Ridge regression fit only to fully labeled events available before each prediction timestamp.", "minimum_train_events": 24, "walk_forward_evaluation": true }, "training_cutoff": "Strictly before each prediction release; every included label must also have completed before that release.", "uncertainty": "Residual 10th/90th-percentile response interval where enough walk-forward residuals exist.", "validation_method": "Expanding-window point-in-time walk-forward", "validation_protocol": "Expanding-window, point-in-time walk-forward evaluation against an expanding-mean diagnostic baseline." }, "module": "ALPHA_STRUCTURAL_RADAR_V1", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "previous_vintage_record_hash": "ed4d500b204771a1bcc092273cefc0da7ac091843b78a7f3a38eded9e858a9ff", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "revision_ledger": [ { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_on_feed_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_placements_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_marketings_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_other_disappearance_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_less_than_600_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_600_699_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_700_799_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_800_899_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_900_999_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_1000_lbs_and_greater", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_head_count_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-15" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-15" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "blended_live_cash", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-15" }, { "detail": "Period advanced from 2026-07-07 to 2026-07-14.", "metric_id": "tuesday_cutout_average_change_pct", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "vintage_date": "2026-07-14" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-04-01" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "intended_heifer_replacements", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-01-01" } ], "schema_version": "1.0.0", "semantic_fingerprint": "bcf7dbffd69919fcea09a5b5519bb0ac06f602afd5cd388df04138de82f365cf", "separation_contract": { "auto_promotion_path": false, "calls_decision_components": false, "official_decision_effect": "NONE", "radar_write_root": "/opt/alpha_structural_radar", "reads_decision_outputs": false, "source_root_read_only": "/opt/alpha_current", "wow_command_effect": "NONE", "write_allowlist": [ "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs/structural_radar_status.json", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs/structural_radar_history.json", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/data/structural_radar/vintages.jsonl", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/state/structural_radar.lock" ], "writes_decision_outputs": false }, "source_ledger": [ { "error": null, "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 28, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-06-18", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "0186e60683ba0d804fe106938434892005fe5baecb0ccb4ebd24dd3f1cc098d4", "source_id": "USDA_NASS_COF", "source_module": "cattle_on_feed", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/cattle_on_feed_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-05", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "d1a921c158ac204777a0bd566c277066be4fef83a20aee3d644acdb0700f4a63", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_TRADE", "source_module": "import_exports", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/import_exports_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "business_release_lag": 0, "calendar_age_days": 1, "expected_report_date": "2026-07-15", "holiday_calendar_note": "Weekday-aware; USDA holiday exceptions may produce WATCH until the next release.", "reason": "Latest expected weekday USDA CEI report is present.", "release_cutoff_ct": "15:45", "report_date": "2026-07-15", "state": "PASS", "status": "PASS", "weekend_aware": true }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-15 after 15:30 CT", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "d8594e96a61fd88752cd293f351bb8d648db52dfbbe27872ddb5de01bb8d649c", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_CEI", "source_module": "ALPHA_PACKER_ECONOMICS_V1", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/packer_economics_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-15", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "20969ff5e86fc91057fe75fe806e50ad5f469e7ddbc45d1682cbfa6ccb3db809", "source_id": "USDA_APHIS", "source_module": "animal_health", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/animal_health_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 1, "pass_max_days": 2, "state": "PASS", "watch_max_days": 5 }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-15 daily publication", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "956a961e55f9442e0916b41b98b1731c799dbccdcf46e0d59a28539fed0c55a7", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_CASH", "source_module": "cash_cattle", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/cash_cattle_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "expected_latest_tuesday": "2026-07-14", "last_refresh_time_ct": "2026-07-16T06:59:29.597871-05:00", "latest_report_date": "2026-07-14", "reason": "Canonical Tuesday afternoon LM_XB403 history is current and complete.", "state": "PASS", "status_error": null, "status_report_date": "2026-07-14", "status_source_fingerprint": "2027cdf8ed4a7c48d5672b274003150a50154cd4402aaba529e4c6a090a53c4d", "status_source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/boxed_beef/boxed_beef_tuesday_history_status.json" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-14", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "4fc7f01ec6b4531a1c3c93384b3608a0938fc9fbbb97046828f45151e95b0563", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_BOXED_TUESDAY", "source_module": "boxed_beef_tuesday_history", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/boxed_beef/boxed_beef_tuesday_history.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-15T21:30:03", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-10", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "2855df5b9527718daf6f9abf12a7a5b087b13463504bfe663573c8651b721150", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT", "source_module": "weekly_kill_weights", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/weekly_kill_weights.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "cadence": "Quarterly USDA ERS feeder supply", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-04-01", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "32d71256ffb42497325ea439db5ed6a00752be99019c9ab73562950ad87f581b", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_FEEDER_SUPPLY", "source_module": "ers_feeder_supply", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/ers_livestock_domestic_data/livestock-data-machine-readable-files/FeederCattleSuppliesOutsideFeedlots.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "DERIVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "cadence": "Annual USDA ERS herd replacement", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-01-01", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "281e3d55e23156459116f1b342105d36eb78c6d3295597ee52f60c846528960d", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_HERD_REPLACEMENT", "source_module": "ers_heifer_replacements", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/ers_livestock_domestic_data/livestock-data-machine-readable-files/heifersenteringherd.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" } ], "status": "PASS", "structural_futures_v2": { "cohort_timing_bridge": { "assumptions": { "contract_mapping": "Each possible market-ready day maps to the nearest still-unexpired Feb/Apr/Jun/Aug/Oct/Dec Live Cattle contract midpoint. Expiry uses the last weekday as an approximation and does not encode exchange holidays.", "days_on_feed": { "1000_lbs_and_greater": [ 50, 110 ], "600_699_lbs": [ 170, 230 ], "700_799_lbs": [ 140, 200 ], "800_899_lbs": [ 110, 170 ], "900_999_lbs": [ 80, 140 ], "less_than_600_lbs": [ 190, 250 ] }, "exposure_weighting": "Placement day and days-on-feed are modeled as independent discrete uniform assumptions, then convolved. These are scenario weights, not empirical probabilities.", "interpretation": "Head-equivalent exposure is a timing bridge, not deliverable supply, open interest, fair value, or a price forecast.", "placement_date_uncertainty": "Earliest uses activity-month start; latest uses activity-month end." }, "buckets": [ { "bucket_id": "less_than_600_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 209836.1, "delta_head_equivalent": -9836.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 219672.1, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.655738 }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 110163.9, "delta_head_equivalent": -5163.9, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 115327.9, "symbol": "LEG7", "window_day_share": 0.344262 } ], "current_head": 320000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 250, "minimum": 190 }, "delta_head": -15000, "delta_pct": -4.478, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-11-07", "latest": "2027-02-05" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-11-25", "p50": "2026-12-22", "p90": "2027-01-18", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 335000 }, { "bucket_id": "600_699_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 11549.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -1684.3, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 13233.7, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.048123 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 211189.8, "delta_head_equivalent": -30798.5, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 241988.4, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.879958 }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 17260.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -2517.2, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 19777.9, "symbol": "LEG7", "window_day_share": 0.07192 } ], "current_head": 240000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 230, "minimum": 170 }, "delta_head": -35000, "delta_pct": -12.727, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-10-18", "latest": "2027-01-16" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-11-05", "p50": "2026-12-02", "p90": "2026-12-29", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 275000 }, { "bucket_id": "700_799_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 183606.6, "delta_head_equivalent": -22950.8, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 206557.4, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.459016 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 216393.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -27049.2, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 243442.6, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.540984 } ], "current_head": 400000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 200, "minimum": 140 }, "delta_head": -50000, "delta_pct": -11.111, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-09-18", "latest": "2026-12-17" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-10-06", "p50": "2026-11-02", "p90": "2026-11-29", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 450000 }, { "bucket_id": "800_899_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 21366.5, "delta_head_equivalent": -3464.8, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 24831.3, "symbol": "LEQ6", "window_day_share": 0.048123 }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 382483.3, "delta_head_equivalent": -62024.3, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 444507.7, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.861449 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 40150.2, "delta_head_equivalent": -6510.8, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 46661.0, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.090428 } ], "current_head": 444000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 170, "minimum": 110 }, "delta_head": -72000, "delta_pct": -13.953, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-08-19", "latest": "2026-11-17" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-09-06", "p50": "2026-10-03", "p90": "2026-10-30", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 516000 }, { "bucket_id": "900_999_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 103278.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -2295.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 105573.8, "symbol": "LEQ6", "window_day_share": 0.459016 }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 121721.3, "delta_head_equivalent": -2704.9, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 124426.2, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.540984 } ], "current_head": 225000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 140, "minimum": 80 }, "delta_head": -5000, "delta_pct": -2.174, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-07-20", "latest": "2026-10-18" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-08-07", "p50": "2026-09-03", "p90": "2026-09-30", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 230000 }, { "bucket_id": "1000_lbs_and_greater", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-06", "current_head_equivalent": 2617.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -174.5, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 2792.2, "symbol": "LEM6", "window_day_share": 0.034902 }, { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 65600.2, "delta_head_equivalent": -4373.3, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 69973.6, "symbol": "LEQ6", "window_day_share": 0.874669 }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 6782.1, "delta_head_equivalent": -452.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 7234.3, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.090428 } ], "current_head": 75000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 110, "minimum": 50 }, "delta_head": -5000, "delta_pct": -6.25, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-06-20", "latest": "2026-09-18" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-07-08", "p50": "2026-08-04", "p90": "2026-08-31", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 80000 } ], "comparison": "SAME_ACTIVITY_MONTH_AS_RELEASED_YEAR_OVER_YEAR", "contracts": [ { "contract_month": "2026-06", "current_head_equivalent": 2617.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -174.5, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 2792.2, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEM6" }, { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 190245.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -10133.3, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 200378.6, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEQ6" }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 706142.8, "delta_head_equivalent": -89816.5, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 795959.3, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEV6" }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 677569.5, "delta_head_equivalent": -74194.6, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 751764.1, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEZ6" }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 127424.6, "delta_head_equivalent": -7681.1, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 135105.8, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEG7" } ], "latest_activity_month": "2026-05-01", "latest_release_date": "2026-06-18", "prior_year_activity_month": "2025-05-01", "prior_year_release_date": "2025-06-20", "reconciliations": [ { "actual": 1704000.0, "check_id": "latest_bucket_sum_to_placements", "expected": 1704000.0, "passed": true, "residual_head": 0.0, "tolerance_head": 1000.0 }, { "actual": 1886000.0, "check_id": "prior_bucket_sum_to_placements", "expected": 1886000.0, "passed": true, "residual_head": 0.0, "tolerance_head": 1000.0 }, { "actual": -182000.0, "check_id": "contract_exposure_delta_to_bucket_delta", "expected": -182000.0, "passed": true, "residual_head": 0.0, "tolerance_head": 1.0 } ], "status": "PASS" }, "contract_response_models": { "continuous_or_stitched_prices_used": false, "contract_estimates": [ { "cohort_timing_exposure": { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 190245.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -10133.3, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 200378.6, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEQ6" }, "contract_id": "LE-2026-08", "horizons": [ { "conditional_fair_value": 248.425, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 245.4, 250.825 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d1", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": 0.374873, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-22" }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.676151, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -0.548147, 1.653802 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 248.65, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 242.6, 254.025 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d5", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": -0.273556, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-26" }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.765928, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.683544, 2.951848 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 249.55, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 240.2, 264.075 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d20", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "predicted_response_pct": 1.131717, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -2.650467, 7.024054 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 251.75, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 242.55, 269.175 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d40", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "predicted_response_pct": 2.027405, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.702378, 9.086627 ], "status": "PASS" } ], "role": "near", "symbol": "LEQ6" }, { "cohort_timing_exposure": { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 706142.8, "delta_head_equivalent": -89816.5, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 795959.3, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEV6" }, "contract_id": "LE-2026-10", "horizons": [ { "conditional_fair_value": 241.825, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 239.2, 243.675 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d1", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": 0.531029, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-22" }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.721589, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -0.374333, 1.488104 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 242.075, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 236.45, 246.775 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d5", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": -0.322782, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-26" }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.81965, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.519832, 2.784357 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 242.9, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 233.525, 255.925 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d20", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "predicted_response_pct": 1.16672, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -2.742707, 6.594272 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 245.025, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 236.95, 261.5 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d40", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "predicted_response_pct": 2.053093, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.30899, 8.914597 ], "status": "PASS" } ], "role": "mid", "symbol": "LEV6" }, { "cohort_timing_exposure": { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 677569.5, "delta_head_equivalent": -74194.6, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 751764.1, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEZ6" }, "contract_id": "LE-2026-12", "horizons": [ { "conditional_fair_value": 240.8, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 238.65, 242.325 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d1", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": 0.585468, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-22" }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.697705, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -0.196348, 1.335889 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 241.175, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 235.65, 246.15 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d5", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": -0.230005, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-26" }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.857373, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.450258, 2.941915 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 241.675, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 234.8, 254.525 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d20", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "predicted_response_pct": 1.06329, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.805714, 6.442563 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 243.8, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 232.9, 258.5 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d40", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "predicted_response_pct": 1.958683, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -2.607012, 8.100815 ], "status": "PASS" } ], "role": "deferred", "symbol": "LEZ6" } ], "contract_selection": "Highest-volume unexpired named fixed contract is near; the next two canonical year-month expiries are mid and deferred.", "curve_twist_model_active": false, "curve_twist_pricing_authority": "NONE", "fair_value_limitation": "Conditional report-response price is not an all-factor intrinsic fair value and cannot be promoted by this module.", "fixed_contract_only": true, "implementation_sha256": "122b355739d8f28522367bcb9b4097a897fa382cc2fbe049c89d448fb81c0d56", "known_limitations": [ "Historical price references are Databento RTH last-trade closes, not official CME settlements.", "Daily source rows do not retain the final bar timestamp; pre-release ordering relies on the scheduled 13:05 CT RTH close preceding the recorded 14:00 CT COF release.", "No licensed analyst-consensus surprise series is available; report features are printed YoY levels, not consensus surprises.", "Role, horizon, and regime heterogeneity remain research limitations; all operational gates stay closed." ], "latest_release_date": "2026-06-18", "model_version": "cof-fixed-contract-ridge-v2.1.0", "models": [ { 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}, { "criterion": "Base structural vintages parse strictly, checkpoint tail loss, and chain new semantic records", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 } ], "label": "Source provenance and semantic integrity", "status": "PASS", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "POINT_IN_TIME", "earned": 12.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Events and prices are filtered to the as-of cutoff", "max_points": 4.0, "passed": true, "points": 4.0 }, { "criterion": "Training labels complete before prediction and latest event is excluded", "max_points": 4.0, "passed": true, "points": 4.0 }, { "criterion": "As-released event timestamps are retained", "max_points": 4.0, "passed": true, "points": 4.0 }, { "criterion": "Daily price reference retains a final-bar timestamp", "max_points": 1.5, "passed": false, "points": 0 }, { "criterion": "Historical original/correction pairs are complete", "max_points": 1.5, "passed": false, "points": 0 } ], "label": "Point-in-time and leakage controls", "limitation": 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"Contract and horizon specificity", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 }, { "dimension_id": "MODEL_GOVERNANCE", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Operational promotion is false", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 }, { "criterion": "Predictive edge remains explicitly unproven", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 }, { "criterion": "Calibration remains explicitly incomplete", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 }, { "criterion": "Pricing authority and execution points are zero", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 } ], "label": "Model governance without promotion leakage", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 }, { "dimension_id": "FORWARD_ACCOUNTABILITY", "earned": 9.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Append-only registry freeze hashes validate", "max_points": 2.0, "passed": true, "points": 2.0 }, { "criterion": "Prior sibling checkpoint detects single-file tail loss", "max_points": 1.0, "passed": true, "points": 1.0 }, { "criterion": "An external protected/WORM ledger anchor exists", "max_points": 1.0, "passed": false, "points": 0 }, { "criterion": "Forecast IDs are deterministic and issuance is deduplicated", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Open and matured-unresolved outcomes remain explicit and unscored", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "At least 36 independent forward report releases and 10 unique releases per claimed horizon are resolved", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": false, "points": 0 } ], "label": "Immutable forward forecast accountability", "limitation": "0 correlated forecast cells across 0 independent report releases are resolved. Same-report roles, horizons, and revisions do not inflate the independent-release threshold. The sibling checkpoint is best-effort and no external WORM anchor exists; accountability is partial and predictive profitability is not graded.", "status": "PARTIAL", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "OPERATIONAL_ISOLATION", "earned": 15.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Base radar has no decision or WOW effect", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Registry writes only below the sibling radar root and the required runtime permission probe passes", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "No live-trade use, auto-promotion, or execution points", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Operational and WOW Command isolation", "status": "PASS", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "TRANSPARENCY", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Complete model card states purpose, target, data, leakage controls, limitations, and governance", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Scorecard names a frozen baseline and baseline-relative primary metric", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Model-card and baseline transparency", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 } ], "eligibility": { "operational_promotion_eligible": false, "predictive_profitability_grade_eligible": false, "status": "ELIGIBLE_SYSTEM_QUALITY_ONLY", "system_quality_grade_eligible": true }, "explicit_exclusions": [ "predictive profitability", "tradable edge", "live execution quality", "risk-adjusted returns" ], "max_points": 0, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "profitability_claim": false, "rubric_id": "ALPHA_SYSTEM_QUALITY_NON_PROFITABILITY_V1", "schema_version": "alpha.system_quality_audit.v1", "scope": "SYSTEM_DESIGN_DATA_INTEGRITY_GOVERNANCE_AND_ACCOUNTABILITY", "score": { "earned": 91.0, "grade": "A-", "maximum": 100.0, "normalized_10": 9.1 }, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "theses": [ { "active_alert_ids": [ "later_fed_pipeline_tightening", "weight_offsets_head_decline", "trade_cushions_domestic_availability" ], "confirmation": "Later marketings and slaughter tighten after placement cohorts roll forward while meat cushions fade.", "contradictions": [ "cof_on_feed_head", "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs" ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "cof_placements_head", "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "beef_exports_ytd_cwe" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "current through 18 months", "invalidation": "Placements recover or meat availability remains ample enough to prevent the expected tightening.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "PRIMARY_WORKING_HYPOTHESIS", "state": "TIGHTENING_LATER_WITH_MEAT_CUSHIONS_NOW", "thesis_id": "later_head_tightness_near_meat_cushion", "title": "Later fed-cattle tightness, buffered near-term beef availability" }, { "confirmation": "Weights, imports, dairy-beef supply, or weak exports continue replacing domestic fed-cattle tonnage.", "contradictions": [ "cof_placements_head", "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots" ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "current through 12 months", "invalidation": "Weights normalize and trade cushions reverse before placements recover.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "COMPETING_HYPOTHESIS", "thesis_id": "meat_availability_outlasts_head_shortage", "title": "Beef availability stays adequate longer than cattle head counts imply" }, { "confirmation": "Verified capacity exits or sustained shift reductions tighten the hook-to-cattle balance.", "contradictions": [ "No verified plant closure is inferred from margin data alone." ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "cof_marketings_head", "weekly_fi_slaughter_head" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "3-24 months", "invalidation": "Margins recover and observed capacity remains stable.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "COMPETING_HYPOTHESIS", "thesis_id": "capacity_rationalization_changes_leverage", "title": "Processing-capacity rationalization changes packer and feedyard leverage" } ], "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "validation": { "all_units_typed": true, "decision_effect": "NONE", "failed_reconciliations": [], "futures_pricing_model_active": false, "maximum_execution_points": 0, "missing_core_metrics": [], "missing_inputs": [], "numeric_forecast_policy": "No forward numeric value is emitted until an independently validated model supplies it.", "point_in_time_only": true, "promotion_gate_passed": false, "semantic_vintage_chain_validation": "PASS_WITH_LEGACY_PREFIX", "semantic_vintage_checkpoint_prior_state": "PASS", "semantic_vintage_checkpoint_validation": "PASS", "semantic_vintage_external_anchor_present": false, "semantic_vintage_parse_strict": true, "semantic_vintages": true, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "vintage_record_hash": "6fc909b270719782a3b8304d24618e0035215ee3261202937d2daf6d97f71d87", "warnings": [] }, { "balance_sheet": { "as_of": "2026-07-16", "periods": [ { "period": "Current feedlot inventory", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current fed-cattle inventory.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 28, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Cattle on feed", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_on_feed_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "feedlot_inventory", "unit": "head", "value": 11682000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": 2.0 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Incoming placement pipeline", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Incoming fed-cattle pipeline.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 28, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Monthly placements", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_placements_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "incoming_pipeline", "unit": "head", "value": 1704000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -10.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 28, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements under 600 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_less_than_600_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 320000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 28, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 600-699 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_600_699_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 240000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 28, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 700-799 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_700_799_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 400000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 28, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 800-899 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_800_899_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 444000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 28, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 900-999 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_900_999_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 225000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 28, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 1,000+ lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_1000_lbs_and_greater", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 75000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "USDA ERS-derived feeder-cattle reservoir outside feedlots; lower inventory can constrain future placements.", "freshness": { "cadence": "Quarterly USDA ERS feeder supply", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Feeder cattle outside feedlots", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_FEEDER_SUPPLY" ], "stage": "feeder_supply", "unit": "thousand_head", "value": 18776.97, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-04-01", "yoy_pct": 2.2631 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Fed-cattle outflow and meat production", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Fed-cattle outflow toward slaughter.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 28, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Monthly marketings", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_marketings_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "fed_outflow", "unit": "head", "value": 1551000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -12.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Non-marketing feedlot disappearance.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 28, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Other disappearance", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_other_disappearance_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "fed_outflow", "unit": "head", "value": 55000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -11.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Observed weekly cattle head throughput.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-16T21:30:03", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Weekly federally inspected slaughter", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "slaughter", "unit": "head", "value": 529000.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": -7.5175 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Pounds produced per slaughtered animal.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-16T21:30:03", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Average dressed weight", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "yield", "unit": "lb_per_head", "value": 889.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": 2.6559 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Observed weekly beef output combines head throughput and carcass yield.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-16T21:30:03", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Weekly beef production", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "meat_output", "unit": "million_lb", "value": 469.1, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": -5.0789 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Counterfactual pounds effect holding year-ago dressed weight constant.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-16T21:30:03", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Head-count contribution to weekly production change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_head_count_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "production_bridge", "unit": "million_lb", "value": -37.238, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Incremental pounds attributable to the dressed-weight change at current slaughter.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-16T21:30:03", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Dressed-weight contribution to weekly production change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "production_bridge", "unit": "million_lb", "value": 12.167, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": null } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Trade and domestic availability", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Imported beef adds to domestic carcass-weight-equivalent availability.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date beef imports", "metadata": { "ytd_comparable": true, "ytd_through_month": 5 }, "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 2754566570.58, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": 9.9 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Exported beef removes product from domestic availability while reflecting foreign demand.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date beef exports", "metadata": { "ytd_comparable": true, "ytd_through_month": 5 }, "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 978518541.27, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": -17.2 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Imports less exports; this is a product-availability measure, not a fed-cattle-equivalent count.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date net beef imports", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 1776048029.31, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": -1.7342, "economic_read": "Weekly wholesale movement; descriptive context only because its futures validation gate has not passed.", "freshness": { "expected_latest_tuesday": "2026-07-14", "last_refresh_time_ct": "2026-07-16T06:59:29.597871-05:00", "latest_report_date": "2026-07-14", "reason": "Canonical Tuesday afternoon LM_XB403 history is current and complete.", "state": "PASS", "status_error": null, "status_report_date": "2026-07-14", "status_source_fingerprint": "2027cdf8ed4a7c48d5672b274003150a50154cd4402aaba529e4c6a090a53c4d", "status_source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/boxed_beef/boxed_beef_tuesday_history_status.json" }, "label": "Tuesday Choice/Select average weekly change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "tuesday_cutout_average_change_pct", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_BOXED_TUESDAY" ], "stage": "wholesale_demand", "unit": "percent", "value": -1.7342, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-14", "yoy_pct": null } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Capacity, cash, herd, and policy context", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Standardized box-minus-live operating-spread proxy; not company net income and not a futures timing signal.", "freshness": { "business_release_lag": 0, "calendar_age_days": 0, "expected_report_date": "2026-07-16", "holiday_calendar_note": "Weekday-aware; USDA holiday exceptions may produce WATCH until the next release.", "reason": "Latest expected weekday USDA CEI report is present.", "release_cutoff_ct": "15:45", "report_date": "2026-07-16", "state": "PASS", "status": "PASS", "weekend_aware": true }, "label": "USDA CEI gross packer spread", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_CEI" ], "stage": "processing_economics", "unit": "usd_per_cwt_carcass", "value": -8.2524, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-16", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current operating status constrains or restores feeder-cattle inflow; duration and price impact are not assumed.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Southern livestock port status", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "source_ids": [ "USDA_APHIS" ], "stage": "biological_policy", "unit": "status", "value": "CLOSED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-16", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current cash transmission and feedyard/packer leverage context.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "pass_max_days": 2, "state": "PASS", "watch_max_days": 5 }, "label": "Blended live cash cattle", "metadata": { "change_vs_last_week_usd_per_cwt": -8.68 }, "metric_id": "blended_live_cash", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_CASH" ], "stage": "cash_transmission", "unit": "usd_per_cwt_live", "value": 239.36, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-16", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Replacement intentions inform herd rebuilding capacity; they do not guarantee retained females or calf-crop growth.", "freshness": { "cadence": "Annual USDA ERS herd replacement", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Intended heifer replacements", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "intended_heifer_replacements", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_HERD_REPLACEMENT" ], "stage": "breeding_herd", "unit": "thousand_head", "value": 8618.8, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-01-01", "yoy_pct": 0.361 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" } ], "reconciliations": [ { "actual": 1704000.0, "check_id": "cof_placement_buckets", "expected": 1704000.0, "name": "Placement weight buckets sum to placements", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 1000.0, "unit": "head" }, { "actual": 11682000.0, "check_id": "cof_head_flow", "expected": 11682000.0, "name": "Opening inventory plus placements less outflows equals closing inventory", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 1000.0, "unit": "head" }, { "actual": 469.1, "check_id": "weekly_production_bridge", "expected": 469.12899999999996, "name": "Year-ago production plus head effect plus weight effect reconciles to current production", "passed": true, "residual": -0.029, "tolerance": 2.3455000000000004, "unit": "million_lb" }, { "actual": 1776048029.31, "check_id": "net_trade_identity", "expected": 1776048029.31, "name": "Imports less exports equals net imports", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 0.01, "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent" } ], "status": "RECONCILED", "summary": { "beef_supply_change_pct": -5.0789, "dressed_weight_yoy_pct": 2.6559, "exports_ytd_change_pct": -17.2, "imports_ytd_change_pct": 9.9, "observation_count": 24, "reconciliation_count": 4, "reconciliation_pass_count": 4, "slaughter_yoy_pct": -7.5175, "source_count": 9, "source_ledger_row_count": 9, "status": "RECONCILED", "weight_offset_of_head_decline_pct": 32.67 }, "unit_policy": "No cattle-head-to-beef-pound conversion is made without an exposed observed weight or typed derivation." }, "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "change_alerts": [ { "alert_id": "later_fed_pipeline_tightening", "counter_evidence": "Current cattle on feed are +2.0% YoY.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "TIGHTENING_LATER", "horizon": "3-18 months", "invalidation": "Placements and feeder availability normalize, or the livestock-border constraint is formally removed.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "WATCH", "summary": "The later fed-cattle pipeline is tightening, but this is not a futures signal.", "triggers": [ { "label": "Placements -10.0% YoY", "metric_id": "cof_placements_head" }, { "label": "Southern livestock ports closed", "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports" } ] }, { "alert_id": "weight_offsets_head_decline", "counter_evidence": "Reported weekly beef production remains -5.1% YoY.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "MEAT_CUSHION", "horizon": "current to 3 months", "invalidation": "Dressed weights stop offsetting lower head throughput.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "ACTIVE", "summary": "Heavier carcasses are replacing part of the beef tonnage lost to lower slaughter.", "triggers": [ { "label": "Slaughter -7.5% YoY", "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head" }, { "label": "Dressed weight +2.7% YoY", "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs" } ] }, { "alert_id": "trade_cushions_domestic_availability", "counter_evidence": "Product mix and imported lean are not fully interchangeable with Choice fed-beef cuts.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "DOMESTIC_AVAILABILITY_CUSHION", "horizon": "current to 6 months", "invalidation": "Imports reverse lower and exports recover enough to remove the net availability cushion.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "ACTIVE", "summary": "Trade flows are cushioning domestic beef availability despite tighter cattle head counts.", "triggers": [ { "label": "YTD imports +9.9%", "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe" }, { "label": "YTD exports -17.2%", "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe" } ] }, { "alert_id": "processing_margin_pressure", "counter_evidence": "The CEI proxy is not company net income and plant-level economics vary.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "CAPACITY_RATIONALIZATION_RISK", "horizon": "current to 6 months", "invalidation": "Gross spreads recover persistently without a capacity reduction.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "WATCH", "summary": "Negative standardized packer spread and changing cash leverage keep capacity rationalization risk active.", "triggers": [ { "label": "CEI spread -8.25/cwt", "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass" }, { "label": "Cash weekly change -8.68/cwt", "metric_id": "blended_live_cash" } ] } ], "composer_contract": { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "composer_version": "alpha.structural_radar.composer.v2.0.0", "decision_effect": "NONE", "max_points": 0, "mode": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "conditional_contract_estimates": { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "contract_estimates": [ { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 245.4, 250.825 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 248.425, "contract_role": "near", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-06-19T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d1", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": 0.374873, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-22" }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 246.75, "predicted_response_pct": 0.676151, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-08", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -0.548147, 1.653802 ], "symbol": "LEQ6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 242.6, 254.025 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 248.65, "contract_role": "near", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-06-25T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d5", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": -0.273556, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-26" }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 246.75, "predicted_response_pct": 0.765928, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-08", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.683544, 2.951848 ], "symbol": "LEQ6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 240.2, 264.075 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 249.55, "contract_role": "near", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-07-16T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d20", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "status": "OPEN_OR_NOT_YET_OBSERVABLE", "target_date": null }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 246.75, "predicted_response_pct": 1.131717, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-08", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -2.650467, 7.024054 ], "symbol": "LEQ6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 242.55, 269.175 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 251.75, "contract_role": "near", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-08-13T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d40", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "status": "OPEN_OR_NOT_YET_OBSERVABLE", "target_date": null }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 246.75, "predicted_response_pct": 2.027405, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-08", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.702378, 9.086627 ], "symbol": "LEQ6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 239.2, 243.675 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 241.825, "contract_role": "mid", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-06-19T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d1", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": 0.531029, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-22" }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 240.1, "predicted_response_pct": 0.721589, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-10", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -0.374333, 1.488104 ], "symbol": "LEV6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 236.45, 246.775 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 242.075, "contract_role": "mid", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": 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"CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-08-13T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d40", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "status": "OPEN_OR_NOT_YET_OBSERVABLE", "target_date": null }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 240.1, "predicted_response_pct": 2.053093, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-10", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.30899, 8.914597 ], "symbol": "LEV6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 238.65, 242.325 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 240.8, "contract_role": "deferred", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-06-19T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d1", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": 0.585468, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-22" }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 239.125, "predicted_response_pct": 0.697705, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-12", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -0.196348, 1.335889 ], "symbol": "LEZ6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 235.65, 246.15 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 241.175, "contract_role": "deferred", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-06-25T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d5", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": -0.230005, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-26" }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 239.125, "predicted_response_pct": 0.857373, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-12", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.450258, 2.941915 ], "symbol": "LEZ6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 234.8, 254.525 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 241.675, "contract_role": "deferred", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-07-16T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d20", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "status": "OPEN_OR_NOT_YET_OBSERVABLE", "target_date": null }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 239.125, "predicted_response_pct": 1.06329, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-12", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.805714, 6.442563 ], "symbol": "LEZ6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 232.9, 258.5 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 243.8, "contract_role": "deferred", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-08-13T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d40", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "status": "OPEN_OR_NOT_YET_OBSERVABLE", "target_date": null }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 239.125, "predicted_response_pct": 1.958683, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-12", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -2.607012, 8.100815 ], "symbol": "LEZ6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" } ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "definition": "Conditional fixed-contract COF report-response estimates, never intrinsic fair value or trade instructions.", "max_points": 0, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "schema_version": "alpha.conditional_contract_estimates.v1", "status": "RESEARCH_ONLY", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "decision_use": "CONTEXT", "errors": [], "extension_fields": [ "calibration_status", "composer_contract", "conditional_contract_estimates", "fair_values", "forecast_book", "forecast_registry", "forecast_scorecard", "frozen_forecasts", "model_card", "operational_promotion_gate_passed", "predictive_edge_status", "pricing_authority", "structural_futures_v2", "system_quality_audit" ], "fair_values": [ { "as_of_price": 246.75, "contract": "LEQ6", "decision_effect": "NONE", "edge_pct": 0.676151, "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_return_pct": 0.676151, "fair_value": 248.425, "horizon": "d1", "interval": [ 245.4, 250.825 ], "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "market": "LIVE_CATTLE", "model_version": "cof-fixed-contract-ridge-v2.1.0", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predicted_price": 248.425, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-08", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ONLY", "validation_status": "PREDICTIVE_EDGE_UNPROVEN", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "as_of_price": 246.75, "contract": "LEQ6", "decision_effect": "NONE", "edge_pct": 0.765928, "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_return_pct": 0.765928, "fair_value": 248.65, "horizon": "d5", "interval": [ 242.6, 254.025 ], "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "market": "LIVE_CATTLE", "model_version": "cof-fixed-contract-ridge-v2.1.0", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predicted_price": 248.65, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-08", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ONLY", "validation_status": "PREDICTIVE_EDGE_UNPROVEN", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "as_of_price": 246.75, "contract": 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unique releases per claimed horizon; correlated role-by-horizon cells and same-report revisions do not count as independent releases. 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"training_cutoff": "Strictly before each prediction release; every included label must also have completed before that release.", "uncertainty": "Residual 10th/90th-percentile response interval where enough walk-forward residuals exist.", "validation_method": "Expanding-window point-in-time walk-forward", "validation_protocol": "Expanding-window, point-in-time walk-forward evaluation against an expanding-mean diagnostic baseline." }, "module": "ALPHA_STRUCTURAL_RADAR_V1", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "previous_vintage_record_hash": "6fc909b270719782a3b8304d24618e0035215ee3261202937d2daf6d97f71d87", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "revision_ledger": [ { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_on_feed_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_placements_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_marketings_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_other_disappearance_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_less_than_600_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_600_699_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_700_799_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_800_899_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_900_999_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_1000_lbs_and_greater", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_head_count_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Period advanced from 2026-07-15 to 2026-07-16.", "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "vintage_date": "2026-07-16" }, { "detail": "Period advanced from 2026-07-15 to 2026-07-16.", "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "vintage_date": "2026-07-16" }, { "detail": "Period advanced from 2026-07-15 to 2026-07-16.", "metric_id": "blended_live_cash", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "vintage_date": "2026-07-16" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "tuesday_cutout_average_change_pct", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-14" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-04-01" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "intended_heifer_replacements", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-01-01" } ], "schema_version": "1.0.0", "semantic_fingerprint": "4d4b29e4c357368d2ff97b233dec98035bc6c9de451f1131795682c76ac83c02", "separation_contract": { "auto_promotion_path": false, "calls_decision_components": false, "official_decision_effect": "NONE", "radar_write_root": "/opt/alpha_structural_radar", "reads_decision_outputs": false, "source_root_read_only": "/opt/alpha_current", "wow_command_effect": "NONE", "write_allowlist": [ "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs/structural_radar_status.json", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs/structural_radar_history.json", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/data/structural_radar/vintages.jsonl", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/state/structural_radar.lock" ], "writes_decision_outputs": false }, "source_ledger": [ { "error": null, "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 28, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-06-18", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "5ef48f9cce8494a251b6392f9ba8f535e8ceaff9d4fdf229e205ec50c54f4697", "source_id": "USDA_NASS_COF", "source_module": "cattle_on_feed", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/cattle_on_feed_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-05", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "e5dfd49d6a7437da5dc8ec05388b4873e73b542057644528a7dc4eac2de40c7b", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_TRADE", "source_module": "import_exports", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/import_exports_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "business_release_lag": 0, "calendar_age_days": 0, "expected_report_date": "2026-07-16", "holiday_calendar_note": "Weekday-aware; USDA holiday exceptions may produce WATCH until the next release.", "reason": "Latest expected weekday USDA CEI report is present.", "release_cutoff_ct": "15:45", "report_date": "2026-07-16", "state": "PASS", "status": "PASS", "weekend_aware": true }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-16 after 15:30 CT", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "3acb742c1c52ca49fa766ced61235dc6d2b5aa49917fcd2a1c84c5ad4fa3f65f", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_CEI", "source_module": "ALPHA_PACKER_ECONOMICS_V1", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/packer_economics_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-16", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "97b89812573bcc0cf906c2e8f27d98e519d7917ee1fa5bb428e06ad1d7c36a84", "source_id": "USDA_APHIS", "source_module": "animal_health", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/animal_health_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "pass_max_days": 2, "state": "PASS", "watch_max_days": 5 }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-16 daily publication", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "efa45d0331deae76b9d15f8e2b8824cc7ad5d54a4be5f4415a609e043a1bdc57", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_CASH", "source_module": "cash_cattle", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/cash_cattle_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "expected_latest_tuesday": "2026-07-14", "last_refresh_time_ct": "2026-07-16T06:59:29.597871-05:00", "latest_report_date": "2026-07-14", "reason": "Canonical Tuesday afternoon LM_XB403 history is current and complete.", "state": "PASS", "status_error": null, "status_report_date": "2026-07-14", "status_source_fingerprint": "2027cdf8ed4a7c48d5672b274003150a50154cd4402aaba529e4c6a090a53c4d", "status_source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/boxed_beef/boxed_beef_tuesday_history_status.json" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-14", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "4fc7f01ec6b4531a1c3c93384b3608a0938fc9fbbb97046828f45151e95b0563", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_BOXED_TUESDAY", "source_module": "boxed_beef_tuesday_history", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/boxed_beef/boxed_beef_tuesday_history.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-16T21:30:03", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-10", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "5a56532c1dc40e52c130b1dbb588e19bb68bf3e733a423e58f6dce4607640bd4", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT", "source_module": "weekly_kill_weights", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/weekly_kill_weights.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "cadence": "Quarterly USDA ERS feeder supply", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-04-01", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "32d71256ffb42497325ea439db5ed6a00752be99019c9ab73562950ad87f581b", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_FEEDER_SUPPLY", "source_module": "ers_feeder_supply", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/ers_livestock_domestic_data/livestock-data-machine-readable-files/FeederCattleSuppliesOutsideFeedlots.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "DERIVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "cadence": "Annual USDA ERS herd replacement", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-01-01", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "281e3d55e23156459116f1b342105d36eb78c6d3295597ee52f60c846528960d", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_HERD_REPLACEMENT", "source_module": "ers_heifer_replacements", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/ers_livestock_domestic_data/livestock-data-machine-readable-files/heifersenteringherd.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" } ], "status": "PASS", "structural_futures_v2": { "cohort_timing_bridge": { "assumptions": { "contract_mapping": "Each possible market-ready day maps to the nearest still-unexpired Feb/Apr/Jun/Aug/Oct/Dec Live Cattle contract midpoint. Expiry uses the last weekday as an approximation and does not encode exchange holidays.", "days_on_feed": { "1000_lbs_and_greater": [ 50, 110 ], "600_699_lbs": [ 170, 230 ], "700_799_lbs": [ 140, 200 ], "800_899_lbs": [ 110, 170 ], "900_999_lbs": [ 80, 140 ], "less_than_600_lbs": [ 190, 250 ] }, "exposure_weighting": "Placement day and days-on-feed are modeled as independent discrete uniform assumptions, then convolved. These are scenario weights, not empirical probabilities.", "interpretation": "Head-equivalent exposure is a timing bridge, not deliverable supply, open interest, fair value, or a price forecast.", "placement_date_uncertainty": "Earliest uses activity-month start; latest uses activity-month end." }, "buckets": [ { "bucket_id": "less_than_600_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 209836.1, "delta_head_equivalent": -9836.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 219672.1, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.655738 }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 110163.9, "delta_head_equivalent": -5163.9, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 115327.9, "symbol": "LEG7", "window_day_share": 0.344262 } ], "current_head": 320000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 250, "minimum": 190 }, "delta_head": -15000, "delta_pct": -4.478, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-11-07", "latest": "2027-02-05" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-11-25", "p50": "2026-12-22", "p90": "2027-01-18", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 335000 }, { "bucket_id": "600_699_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 11549.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -1684.3, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 13233.7, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.048123 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 211189.8, "delta_head_equivalent": -30798.5, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 241988.4, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.879958 }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 17260.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -2517.2, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 19777.9, "symbol": "LEG7", "window_day_share": 0.07192 } ], "current_head": 240000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 230, "minimum": 170 }, "delta_head": -35000, "delta_pct": -12.727, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-10-18", "latest": "2027-01-16" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-11-05", "p50": "2026-12-02", "p90": "2026-12-29", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 275000 }, { "bucket_id": "700_799_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 183606.6, "delta_head_equivalent": -22950.8, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 206557.4, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.459016 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 216393.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -27049.2, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 243442.6, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.540984 } ], "current_head": 400000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 200, "minimum": 140 }, "delta_head": -50000, "delta_pct": -11.111, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-09-18", "latest": "2026-12-17" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-10-06", "p50": "2026-11-02", "p90": "2026-11-29", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 450000 }, { "bucket_id": "800_899_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 21366.5, "delta_head_equivalent": -3464.8, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 24831.3, "symbol": "LEQ6", "window_day_share": 0.048123 }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 382483.3, "delta_head_equivalent": -62024.3, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 444507.7, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.861449 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 40150.2, "delta_head_equivalent": -6510.8, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 46661.0, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.090428 } ], "current_head": 444000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 170, "minimum": 110 }, "delta_head": -72000, "delta_pct": -13.953, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-08-19", "latest": "2026-11-17" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-09-06", "p50": "2026-10-03", "p90": "2026-10-30", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 516000 }, { "bucket_id": "900_999_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 103278.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -2295.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 105573.8, "symbol": "LEQ6", "window_day_share": 0.459016 }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 121721.3, "delta_head_equivalent": -2704.9, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 124426.2, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.540984 } ], "current_head": 225000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 140, "minimum": 80 }, "delta_head": -5000, "delta_pct": -2.174, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-07-20", "latest": "2026-10-18" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-08-07", "p50": "2026-09-03", "p90": "2026-09-30", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 230000 }, { "bucket_id": "1000_lbs_and_greater", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-06", "current_head_equivalent": 2617.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -174.5, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 2792.2, "symbol": "LEM6", "window_day_share": 0.034902 }, { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 65600.2, "delta_head_equivalent": -4373.3, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 69973.6, "symbol": "LEQ6", "window_day_share": 0.874669 }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 6782.1, "delta_head_equivalent": -452.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 7234.3, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.090428 } ], "current_head": 75000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 110, "minimum": 50 }, "delta_head": -5000, "delta_pct": -6.25, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-06-20", "latest": "2026-09-18" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-07-08", "p50": "2026-08-04", "p90": "2026-08-31", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 80000 } ], "comparison": "SAME_ACTIVITY_MONTH_AS_RELEASED_YEAR_OVER_YEAR", "contracts": [ { "contract_month": "2026-06", "current_head_equivalent": 2617.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -174.5, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 2792.2, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEM6" }, { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 190245.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -10133.3, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 200378.6, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEQ6" }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 706142.8, "delta_head_equivalent": -89816.5, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 795959.3, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEV6" }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 677569.5, "delta_head_equivalent": -74194.6, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 751764.1, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEZ6" }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 127424.6, "delta_head_equivalent": -7681.1, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 135105.8, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEG7" } ], "latest_activity_month": "2026-05-01", "latest_release_date": "2026-06-18", "prior_year_activity_month": "2025-05-01", "prior_year_release_date": 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"UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "fair_value_definition": "Same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close multiplied by the estimated report-response return; not an official settlement, intrinsic value, or promoted forecast.", "feature_names": [ "on_feed_yoy_delta_pp", "placements_yoy_delta_pp", "marketings_yoy_delta_pp", "season_sin", "season_cos" ], "fitted_artifact": { "artifact_sha256": "7e4c7d90dacb4a2a4364f1162a2ceb59b0d98f66ea9d9cb620e960f0c21dcf5c", "coefficients_intercept_first": [ 1.637046266685, -0.887110174762, -0.195111224833, -0.317762161399, 0.50808229049, -0.293302016189 ], "feature_means": [ -0.32, -1.693333333333, -1.506666666667, 0.044880338717, 0.031547005384 ], "feature_names": [ "on_feed_yoy_delta_pp", "placements_yoy_delta_pp", "marketings_yoy_delta_pp", "season_sin", "season_cos" ], "feature_scales": [ 2.104978226332, 8.176345285164, 8.314442588385, 0.700941572836, 0.711105796009 ], "ridge_penalty": 4.0, "training_row_count": 75, "training_row_identity_sha256": "e66dad219c983fde988e04a569aa3adc0fc81d5e37247d97f8854df408c32f52" }, "gate_checks": { "beats_zero_return_baseline": true, "directional_accuracy_at_least_52pct": true, "interval_80_coverage_65_to_90pct": false, "mae_skill_at_least_5pct": false, "n_oos_at_least_36": true, "prediction_correlation_at_least_0_10": false }, "horizon": "d40", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "max_training_label_date": "2026-06-15", "min_train_events": 24, "model_version": "cof-fixed-contract-ridge-v2.1.0", "n_train": 75, "pre_report_close": 239.125, "predicted_response_pct": 1.958683, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-12", "prediction_release_date": "2026-06-18", "prediction_symbol": "LEZ6", "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "research_only": true, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -2.607012, 8.100815 ], "role": "deferred", "status": "PASS", "strictly_prior_training": true, "training_max_release_date": "2026-04-17", "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "walk_forward": { "baseline_mae_return_pct": 3.632719, "directional_accuracy": 0.64, "interval_80_coverage": 0.6, "interval_coverage_n": 35, "mae_return_pct": 3.544136, "mae_skill_vs_expanding_mean": 0.024385, "mae_skill_vs_zero_return": 0.107422, "n_oos": 50, "prediction_correlation": -0.02018, "zero_return_baseline_mae_pct": 3.970674 }, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" } ], "multiplicity_policy": "Twelve role-by-horizon candidates are exposed together; no familywise or FDR gate has passed, so operational promotion is prohibited.", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "statistical_gate_pass_count": 0, "target_definition": "Nth actual later RTH last-trade close versus same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close before the after-close COF release; these are not official CME settlements." }, "decision_effect": "NONE", "errors": [], "headline": "Placement cohorts are mapped to contract windows; price estimates remain conditional and research-only.", "live": false, "max_points": 0, "mode": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "module": "ALPHA_STRUCTURAL_FUTURES_V2", "point_in_time_events": { "as_of_cutoff_ct": "2026-07-16T16:50:11.697620-05:00", "consensus_surprise_available": false, "consensus_surprise_used": false, "event_count": 114, "feature_policy": "Only values printed in the as-released row plus activity-month season terms are features.", "latest_event": { "activity_month": "2026-05-01", "availability_rule": "Feature values become available only at the recorded USDA release timestamp.", "event_id": "795942", "observations": [ { "known_at_ct": "2026-06-18T14:00:00-05:00", "observation_id": "on_feed_yoy_delta_pp", "unit": "percentage_point", "value": 2.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED_RELEASE" }, { "known_at_ct": "2026-06-18T14:00:00-05:00", "observation_id": "placements_yoy_delta_pp", "unit": "percentage_point", "value": -10.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED_RELEASE" }, { "known_at_ct": "2026-06-18T14:00:00-05:00", "observation_id": "marketings_yoy_delta_pp", "unit": "percentage_point", "value": -12.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED_RELEASE" }, { "known_at_ct": "2026-06-18T14:00:00-05:00", "observation_id": "season_sin", "unit": "cyclical_component", "value": 0.5, "value_kind": "DERIVED_FROM_ACTIVITY_MONTH" }, { "known_at_ct": "2026-06-18T14:00:00-05:00", "observation_id": "season_cos", "unit": "cyclical_component", "value": -0.866025, "value_kind": "DERIVED_FROM_ACTIVITY_MONTH" } ], "provenance": { "source_sha256": "da477404f359a36b9d2b412f0dfdeaa4f3b05596c898c0655184124228fa9fbf", "source_url": "https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795942/cofd0626.txt" }, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "release_revision_id": "795942@2026-06-18T14:00:00-05:00", "release_timestamp_ct": "2026-06-18T14:00:00-05:00", "release_timestamp_kind": "RECORDED_SOURCE_TIMESTAMP", "research_only": true, "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false } }, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "research_only": true, "schema_version": "alpha.structural_futures.v2", "semantic_fingerprint": "99a38ce3ae592c9b56c69458334861a34d378032323b334844f8fc517fb9ef51", "source_ledger": [ { "path": "/opt/alpha_current/data/cattle_on_feed/report_events.csv", "read_only": true, "rows": 114, "sha256": "8c9fa84f4a2ce005f1a3e636a6a01f0051000c3b69de93c11e649ab753fa166b", "source_id": "USDA_NASS_COF_AS_RELEASED" }, { "path": "/opt/alpha_current/data/cattle_on_feed/le_fixed_ohlcv_1d.parquet", "read_only": true, "rows": 14270, "sha256": "8a1de1b8cb8ecba365c826afbd4f42a1b34d8ba9c86d5af377f8247b1358f912", "source_id": "DATABENTO_LE_FIXED_CONTRACT_DAILY" } ], "status": "PASS", "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "validation": { "all_training_labels_completed_before_prediction": true, "cohort_reconciliations_passed": true, "corrections_after_response_anchor_excluded": true, "data_status": { "event_rows": 114, "first_event_date": "2017-01-27", "fixed_contract_rows": 14270, "latest_event_date": "2026-06-18", "latest_event_price_reference_available": true, "price_first_date": "2020-01-02", "price_last_date": "2026-07-16", "response_panel_rows": 231 }, "events_filtered_to_as_of_cutoff": true, "historical_correction_policy": "Recorded same-date revisions are cutoff-aware. Later-date corrections are excluded from the report-response panel so they cannot be paired with an already-observed original-report return path; displaced originals are not guaranteed recoverable for every historical USDA correction.", "historical_original_corrections_complete": false, "latest_event_excluded_from_training": true, "model_gate_is_not_operational_gate": true, "numeric_forecast_policy": "No estimate is emitted with insufficient prior history; no model estimate affects WOW or decisions.", "point_in_time_release_timestamps": true, "price_reference_is_official_settlement": false, "price_reference_timestamp_retained": false, "price_rows_filtered_to_as_of_cutoff": true, "price_rows_unique_by_date_contract": true }, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "system_quality_audit": { "accountability_status": "PARTIAL", "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "critical_gates": { "decision_isolation_gate": true, "immutable_registry_gate": true, "no_operational_promotion_gate": true, "no_predictive_skill_claim_gate": true, "overall_health_gate": true, "point_in_time_gate": true, "reconciliation_gate": true, "runtime_permission_probe_gate": true, "source_alignment_and_price_freshness_gate": true, "wow_isolation_gate": true }, "critical_gates_passed": true, "decision_effect": "NONE", "dimensions": [ { "dimension_id": "SOURCE_PROVENANCE", "earned": 15.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "At least eight unique structural sources have explicit non-stale freshness, observed-at values, and fingerprints", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Every base ledger row is identified, fingerprinted, and read-only", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Both required V2 sources are nonempty, read-only, and SHA-256 fingerprinted", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Base COF and V2 latest releases align, and the fixed-contract panel is current", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Base structural vintages parse strictly, checkpoint tail loss, and chain new semantic records", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 } ], "label": "Source provenance and semantic integrity", "status": "PASS", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "POINT_IN_TIME", "earned": 12.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Events and prices are filtered to the as-of cutoff", "max_points": 4.0, "passed": true, "points": 4.0 }, { "criterion": "Training labels complete before prediction and latest event is excluded", "max_points": 4.0, "passed": true, "points": 4.0 }, { "criterion": "As-released event timestamps are retained", "max_points": 4.0, "passed": true, "points": 4.0 }, { "criterion": "Daily price reference retains a final-bar timestamp", "max_points": 1.5, "passed": false, "points": 0 }, { "criterion": "Historical original/correction pairs are complete", "max_points": 1.5, "passed": false, "points": 0 } ], "label": "Point-in-time and leakage controls", "limitation": "Capped at 12/15: the daily panel lacks a retained final-bar timestamp and historical original/correction completeness is not guaranteed.", "status": "PARTIAL", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "RECONCILIATION", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "All base observations are typed and reconciliations recompute within explicit units/tolerances", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Placement cohort-to-contract reconciliations recompute within head tolerances", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Accounting and reconciliation", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 }, { "dimension_id": "CONTRACT_HORIZONS", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Fixed contracts are used without continuous stitching", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "A unique, fully estimated near/mid/deferred D1/D5/D20/D40 fixed-contract grid is present", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Contract and horizon specificity", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 }, { "dimension_id": "MODEL_GOVERNANCE", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Operational promotion is false", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 }, { "criterion": "Predictive edge remains explicitly unproven", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 }, { "criterion": "Calibration remains explicitly incomplete", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 }, { "criterion": "Pricing authority and execution points are zero", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 } ], "label": "Model governance without promotion leakage", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 }, { "dimension_id": "FORWARD_ACCOUNTABILITY", "earned": 9.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Append-only registry freeze hashes validate", "max_points": 2.0, "passed": true, "points": 2.0 }, { "criterion": "Prior sibling checkpoint detects single-file tail loss", "max_points": 1.0, "passed": true, "points": 1.0 }, { "criterion": "An external protected/WORM ledger anchor exists", "max_points": 1.0, "passed": false, "points": 0 }, { "criterion": "Forecast IDs are deterministic and issuance is deduplicated", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Open and matured-unresolved outcomes remain explicit and unscored", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "At least 36 independent forward report releases and 10 unique releases per claimed horizon are resolved", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": false, "points": 0 } ], "label": "Immutable forward forecast accountability", "limitation": "0 correlated forecast cells across 0 independent report releases are resolved. Same-report roles, horizons, and revisions do not inflate the independent-release threshold. The sibling checkpoint is best-effort and no external WORM anchor exists; accountability is partial and predictive profitability is not graded.", "status": "PARTIAL", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "OPERATIONAL_ISOLATION", "earned": 15.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Base radar has no decision or WOW effect", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Registry writes only below the sibling radar root and the required runtime permission probe passes", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "No live-trade use, auto-promotion, or execution points", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Operational and WOW Command isolation", "status": "PASS", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "TRANSPARENCY", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Complete model card states purpose, target, data, leakage controls, limitations, and governance", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Scorecard names a frozen baseline and baseline-relative primary metric", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Model-card and baseline transparency", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 } ], "eligibility": { "operational_promotion_eligible": false, "predictive_profitability_grade_eligible": false, "status": "ELIGIBLE_SYSTEM_QUALITY_ONLY", "system_quality_grade_eligible": true }, "explicit_exclusions": [ "predictive profitability", "tradable edge", "live execution quality", "risk-adjusted returns" ], "max_points": 0, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "profitability_claim": false, "rubric_id": "ALPHA_SYSTEM_QUALITY_NON_PROFITABILITY_V1", "schema_version": "alpha.system_quality_audit.v1", "scope": "SYSTEM_DESIGN_DATA_INTEGRITY_GOVERNANCE_AND_ACCOUNTABILITY", "score": { "earned": 91.0, "grade": "A-", "maximum": 100.0, "normalized_10": 9.1 }, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "theses": [ { "active_alert_ids": [ "later_fed_pipeline_tightening", "weight_offsets_head_decline", "trade_cushions_domestic_availability", "processing_margin_pressure" ], "confirmation": "Later marketings and slaughter tighten after placement cohorts roll forward while meat cushions fade.", "contradictions": [ "cof_on_feed_head", "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs" ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "cof_placements_head", "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "beef_exports_ytd_cwe" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "current through 18 months", "invalidation": "Placements recover or meat availability remains ample enough to prevent the expected tightening.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "PRIMARY_WORKING_HYPOTHESIS", "state": "TIGHTENING_LATER_WITH_MEAT_CUSHIONS_NOW", "thesis_id": "later_head_tightness_near_meat_cushion", "title": "Later fed-cattle tightness, buffered near-term beef availability" }, { "confirmation": "Weights, imports, dairy-beef supply, or weak exports continue replacing domestic fed-cattle tonnage.", "contradictions": [ "cof_placements_head", "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots" ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "current through 12 months", "invalidation": "Weights normalize and trade cushions reverse before placements recover.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "COMPETING_HYPOTHESIS", "thesis_id": "meat_availability_outlasts_head_shortage", "title": "Beef availability stays adequate longer than cattle head counts imply" }, { "confirmation": "Verified capacity exits or sustained shift reductions tighten the hook-to-cattle balance.", "contradictions": [ "No verified plant closure is inferred from margin data alone." ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "cof_marketings_head", "weekly_fi_slaughter_head" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "3-24 months", "invalidation": "Margins recover and observed capacity remains stable.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "COMPETING_HYPOTHESIS", "thesis_id": "capacity_rationalization_changes_leverage", "title": "Processing-capacity rationalization changes packer and feedyard leverage" } ], "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "validation": { "all_units_typed": true, "decision_effect": "NONE", "failed_reconciliations": [], "futures_pricing_model_active": false, "maximum_execution_points": 0, "missing_core_metrics": [], "missing_inputs": [], "numeric_forecast_policy": "No forward numeric value is emitted until an independently validated model supplies it.", "point_in_time_only": true, "promotion_gate_passed": false, "semantic_vintage_chain_validation": "PASS_WITH_LEGACY_PREFIX", "semantic_vintage_checkpoint_prior_state": "PASS", "semantic_vintage_checkpoint_validation": "PASS", "semantic_vintage_external_anchor_present": false, "semantic_vintage_parse_strict": true, "semantic_vintages": true, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "vintage_record_hash": "cc926fd68e9ea2cc7ba143b14e6c967169fa00523ffeeba9bb562b7baee3fb2d", "warnings": [] }, { "balance_sheet": { "as_of": "2026-07-16", "periods": [ { "period": "Current feedlot inventory", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current fed-cattle inventory.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 28, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Cattle on feed", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_on_feed_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "feedlot_inventory", "unit": "head", "value": 11682000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": 2.0 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Incoming placement pipeline", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Incoming fed-cattle pipeline.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 28, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Monthly placements", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_placements_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "incoming_pipeline", "unit": "head", "value": 1704000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -10.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 28, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements under 600 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_less_than_600_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 320000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 28, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 600-699 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_600_699_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 240000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 28, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 700-799 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_700_799_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 400000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 28, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 800-899 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_800_899_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 444000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 28, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 900-999 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_900_999_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 225000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 28, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 1,000+ lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_1000_lbs_and_greater", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 75000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "USDA ERS-derived feeder-cattle reservoir outside feedlots; lower inventory can constrain future placements.", "freshness": { "cadence": "Quarterly USDA ERS feeder supply", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Feeder cattle outside feedlots", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_FEEDER_SUPPLY" ], "stage": "feeder_supply", "unit": "thousand_head", "value": 18776.97, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-04-01", "yoy_pct": 2.2631 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Fed-cattle outflow and meat production", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Fed-cattle outflow toward slaughter.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 28, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Monthly marketings", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_marketings_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "fed_outflow", "unit": "head", "value": 1551000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -12.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Non-marketing feedlot disappearance.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 28, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Other disappearance", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_other_disappearance_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "fed_outflow", "unit": "head", "value": 55000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -11.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Observed weekly cattle head throughput.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-16T21:30:03", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Weekly federally inspected slaughter", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "slaughter", "unit": "head", "value": 529000.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": -7.5175 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Pounds produced per slaughtered animal.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-16T21:30:03", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Average dressed weight", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "yield", "unit": "lb_per_head", "value": 889.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": 2.6559 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Observed weekly beef output combines head throughput and carcass yield.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-16T21:30:03", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Weekly beef production", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "meat_output", "unit": "million_lb", "value": 469.1, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": -5.0789 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Counterfactual pounds effect holding year-ago dressed weight constant.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-16T21:30:03", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Head-count contribution to weekly production change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_head_count_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "production_bridge", "unit": "million_lb", "value": -37.238, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Incremental pounds attributable to the dressed-weight change at current slaughter.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-16T21:30:03", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Dressed-weight contribution to weekly production change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "production_bridge", "unit": "million_lb", "value": 12.167, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": null } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Trade and domestic availability", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Imported beef adds to domestic carcass-weight-equivalent availability.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date beef imports", "metadata": { "ytd_comparable": true, "ytd_through_month": 5 }, "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 2754566570.58, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": 9.9 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Exported beef removes product from domestic availability while reflecting foreign demand.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date beef exports", "metadata": { "ytd_comparable": true, "ytd_through_month": 5 }, "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 978518541.27, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": -17.2 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Imports less exports; this is a product-availability measure, not a fed-cattle-equivalent count.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date net beef imports", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 1776048029.31, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": -1.7342, "economic_read": "Weekly wholesale movement; descriptive context only because its futures validation gate has not passed.", "freshness": { "expected_latest_tuesday": "2026-07-14", "last_refresh_time_ct": "2026-07-16T06:59:29.597871-05:00", "latest_report_date": "2026-07-14", "reason": "Canonical Tuesday afternoon LM_XB403 history is current and complete.", "state": "PASS", "status_error": null, "status_report_date": "2026-07-14", "status_source_fingerprint": "2027cdf8ed4a7c48d5672b274003150a50154cd4402aaba529e4c6a090a53c4d", "status_source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/boxed_beef/boxed_beef_tuesday_history_status.json" }, "label": "Tuesday Choice/Select average weekly change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "tuesday_cutout_average_change_pct", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_BOXED_TUESDAY" ], "stage": "wholesale_demand", "unit": "percent", "value": -1.7342, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-14", "yoy_pct": null } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Capacity, cash, herd, and policy context", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Standardized box-minus-live operating-spread proxy; not company net income and not a futures timing signal.", "freshness": { "business_release_lag": 0, "calendar_age_days": 0, "expected_report_date": "2026-07-16", "holiday_calendar_note": "Weekday-aware; USDA holiday exceptions may produce WATCH until the next release.", "reason": "Latest expected weekday USDA CEI report is present.", "release_cutoff_ct": "15:45", "report_date": "2026-07-16", "state": "PASS", "status": "PASS", "weekend_aware": true }, "label": "USDA CEI gross packer spread", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_CEI" ], "stage": "processing_economics", "unit": "usd_per_cwt_carcass", "value": -8.2524, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-16", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current operating status constrains or restores feeder-cattle inflow; duration and price impact are not assumed.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Southern livestock port status", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_APHIS" ], "stage": "biological_policy", "unit": "status", "value": "CLOSED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-16", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current cash transmission and feedyard/packer leverage context.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "pass_max_days": 2, "state": "PASS", "watch_max_days": 5 }, "label": "Blended live cash cattle", "metadata": { "change_vs_last_week_usd_per_cwt": -8.68 }, "metric_id": "blended_live_cash", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_CASH" ], "stage": "cash_transmission", "unit": "usd_per_cwt_live", "value": 239.36, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-16", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Replacement intentions inform herd rebuilding capacity; they do not guarantee retained females or calf-crop growth.", "freshness": { "cadence": "Annual USDA ERS herd replacement", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Intended heifer replacements", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "intended_heifer_replacements", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_HERD_REPLACEMENT" ], "stage": "breeding_herd", "unit": "thousand_head", "value": 8618.8, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-01-01", "yoy_pct": 0.361 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" } ], "reconciliations": [ { "actual": 1704000.0, "check_id": "cof_placement_buckets", "expected": 1704000.0, "name": "Placement weight buckets sum to placements", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 1000.0, "unit": "head" }, { "actual": 11682000.0, "check_id": "cof_head_flow", "expected": 11682000.0, "name": "Opening inventory plus placements less outflows equals closing inventory", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 1000.0, "unit": "head" }, { "actual": 469.1, "check_id": "weekly_production_bridge", "expected": 469.12899999999996, "name": "Year-ago production plus head effect plus weight effect reconciles to current production", "passed": true, "residual": -0.029, "tolerance": 2.3455000000000004, "unit": "million_lb" }, { "actual": 1776048029.31, "check_id": "net_trade_identity", "expected": 1776048029.31, "name": "Imports less exports equals net imports", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 0.01, "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent" } ], "status": "RECONCILED", "summary": { "beef_supply_change_pct": -5.0789, "dressed_weight_yoy_pct": 2.6559, "exports_ytd_change_pct": -17.2, "imports_ytd_change_pct": 9.9, "observation_count": 24, "reconciliation_count": 4, "reconciliation_pass_count": 4, "slaughter_yoy_pct": -7.5175, "source_count": 9, "source_ledger_row_count": 9, "status": "RECONCILED", "weight_offset_of_head_decline_pct": 32.67 }, "unit_policy": "No cattle-head-to-beef-pound conversion is made without an exposed observed weight or typed derivation." }, "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "change_alerts": [ { "alert_id": "later_fed_pipeline_tightening", "counter_evidence": "Current cattle on feed are +2.0% YoY.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "TIGHTENING_LATER", "horizon": "3-18 months", "invalidation": "Placements and feeder availability normalize, or the livestock-border constraint is formally removed.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "WATCH", "summary": "The later fed-cattle pipeline is tightening, but this is not a futures signal.", "triggers": [ { "label": "Placements -10.0% YoY", "metric_id": "cof_placements_head" }, { "label": "Southern livestock ports closed", "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports" } ] }, { "alert_id": "weight_offsets_head_decline", "counter_evidence": "Reported weekly beef production remains -5.1% YoY.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "MEAT_CUSHION", "horizon": "current to 3 months", "invalidation": "Dressed weights stop offsetting lower head throughput.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "ACTIVE", "summary": "Heavier carcasses are replacing part of the beef tonnage lost to lower slaughter.", "triggers": [ { "label": "Slaughter -7.5% YoY", "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head" }, { "label": "Dressed weight +2.7% YoY", "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs" } ] }, { "alert_id": "trade_cushions_domestic_availability", "counter_evidence": "Product mix and imported lean are not fully interchangeable with Choice fed-beef cuts.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "DOMESTIC_AVAILABILITY_CUSHION", "horizon": "current to 6 months", "invalidation": "Imports reverse lower and exports recover enough to remove the net availability cushion.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "ACTIVE", "summary": "Trade flows are cushioning domestic beef availability despite tighter cattle head counts.", "triggers": [ { "label": "YTD imports +9.9%", "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe" }, { "label": "YTD exports -17.2%", "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe" } ] }, { "alert_id": "processing_margin_pressure", "counter_evidence": "The CEI proxy is not company net income and plant-level economics vary.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "CAPACITY_RATIONALIZATION_RISK", "horizon": "current to 6 months", "invalidation": "Gross spreads recover persistently without a capacity reduction.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "WATCH", "summary": "Negative standardized packer spread and changing cash leverage keep capacity rationalization risk active.", "triggers": [ { "label": "CEI spread -8.25/cwt", "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass" }, { "label": "Cash weekly change -8.68/cwt", "metric_id": "blended_live_cash" } ] } ], "composer_contract": { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "composer_version": "alpha.structural_radar.composer.v2.0.0", "decision_effect": "NONE", "max_points": 0, "mode": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "conditional_contract_estimates": { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "contract_estimates": [ { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 245.4, 250.825 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 248.425, "contract_role": "near", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-06-19T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d1", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": 0.374873, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-22" }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 246.75, "predicted_response_pct": 0.676151, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-08", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -0.548147, 1.653802 ], "symbol": "LEQ6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 242.6, 254.025 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 248.65, "contract_role": "near", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-06-25T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d5", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": -0.273556, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-26" }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 246.75, "predicted_response_pct": 0.765928, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-08", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.683544, 2.951848 ], "symbol": "LEQ6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 240.2, 264.075 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 249.55, "contract_role": "near", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-07-16T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d20", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "status": "OPEN_OR_NOT_YET_OBSERVABLE", "target_date": null }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 246.75, "predicted_response_pct": 1.131717, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-08", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -2.650467, 7.024054 ], "symbol": "LEQ6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 242.55, 269.175 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 251.75, "contract_role": "near", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-08-13T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d40", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "status": "OPEN_OR_NOT_YET_OBSERVABLE", "target_date": null }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 246.75, "predicted_response_pct": 2.027405, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-08", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.702378, 9.086627 ], "symbol": "LEQ6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 239.2, 243.675 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 241.825, "contract_role": "mid", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": 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"label": "D20", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d40", "label": "D40", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 } ], "by_horizon": [ { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d1", "label": "D1", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d5", "label": "D5", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d20", "label": "D20", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d40", "label": "D40", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 } ], "calibration": [], "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "directional_accuracy": null, "forward_resolved_count": 0, "forward_resolved_forecast_count": 0, "forward_test_status": "OPEN_BOOK_NO_FORWARD_RESOLUTIONS", "interval_coverage": null, "mae": null, "mae_skill_vs_baseline": null, "matured_data_pending_count": 0, "mean_bias": null, "open_forecast_count": 0, "performance_status": "UNPROVEN", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "profitability_claim": false, "resolved_forecast_count": 0, "rmse": null, "schema_version": "alpha.structural_forecast_scorecard.v1", "skill_vs_baseline": null, "status": "NO_RESOLVED_FORWARD_FORECASTS", "unique_resolved_release_revision_count": 0, "unique_resolved_report_release_count": 0, "validation_mode": "IMMUTABLE_GENUINELY_FORWARD_OOS" }, "frozen_forecasts": [], "futures_implications": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESES", "generated_at_ct": "2026-07-17T05:50:14.849185-05:00", "headline": { "confidence": "HIGH", "dominant_stage": "placements_vs_meat_availability", "horizon": "current through 18 months", "state": "TIGHTENING_LATER_WITH_MEAT_CUSHIONS_NOW", "text": "The later fed-cattle pipeline is tightening while heavier carcasses and trade flows cushion beef availability now.", "what_changed": "No semantic structural change since the prior frozen vintage." }, "history": { "changed_metric_ids": [], "previous_fingerprint": "4d4b29e4c357368d2ff97b233dec98035bc6c9de451f1131795682c76ac83c02", "semantic_changed": true, "vintage_count": 14, "vintage_recorded": true }, "live_trade_status": "DISABLED", "max_points": 0, "mode": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "model_card": { "baseline": "Expanding historical mean inside V2 walk-forward diagnostics; zero-change baseline in the immutable forward registry.", "calibration_policy": "No calibrated claim until at least 36 independent genuinely forward report releases and at least 10 unique releases per claimed horizon; correlated role-by-horizon cells and same-report revisions do not count as independent releases. Current status remains NOT_CALIBRATED.", "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "data_sources": [ "USDA NASS COF as-released event rows", "Databento Live Cattle fixed-contract daily bars" ], "evaluation_metrics": [ "MAE", "baseline-relative MAE skill", "directional accuracy", "prediction correlation", "80% interval coverage" ], "fairness_scope": "Not applicable to people; monitor contract-month and market-regime coverage instead.", "feature_families": [ "USDA COF year-over-year release values", "activity-month seasonality" ], "features": [ "on_feed_yoy_delta_pp", "placements_yoy_delta_pp", "marketings_yoy_delta_pp", "activity_month_season_sin", "activity_month_season_cos" ], "governance": { "auto_promotion_path": false, "decision_effect": "NONE", "max_points": 0, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "horizon_definitions": { "d1": "1 actual later fixed-contract session(s)", "d20": "20 actual later fixed-contract session(s)", "d40": "40 actual later fixed-contract session(s)", "d5": "5 actual later fixed-contract session(s)" }, "horizons": [ "d1", "d5", "d20", "d40" ], "intended_uses": [ "research", "hypothesis tracking", "forward accountability", "contract-window comparison" ], "known_limitations": [ "No contemporaneous consensus-surprise feature", "Conditional report response is not all-factor intrinsic value", "Weekday target scheduling is conservative and is reconciled to actual fixed-contract sessions at resolution", "No demonstrated forward predictive edge yet", "No transaction costs, slippage, liquidity, or executable strategy economics" ], "leakage_controls": [ "As-released report values only", "Latest event excluded from training", "Training labels must complete before prediction", "Forward registry rejects horizons already mature at first issuance" ], "lifecycle_status": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "model_name": "Structural Futures V2 fixed-contract COF response", "model_type": "Expanding-window ridge regression with fixed-contract event responses", "model_version": "cof-fixed-contract-ridge-v2.1.0", "monitoring": { "baseline_relative_scorecard": true, "calibration_minimum_unique_report_releases": 36, "immutable_forecast_book": true, "open_outcomes_retained": true }, "owner": "Alpha Structural Radar research boundary", "prediction_population": "Highest-volume unexpired Live Cattle fixed contract and the next two listed expiries on the release date.", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "prohibited_uses": [ "WOW Command input", "official decision input", "live trading", "position sizing", "intrinsic fair-value claim" ], "promotion_criteria": [ "At least 36 independent genuinely forward report releases", "At least 10 unique report releases per claimed horizon", "Positive baseline-relative MAE skill with stable directional evidence", "Independent governance review; never automatic promotion" ], "promotion_gate_passed": false, "purpose": "Estimate a conditional fixed-contract price response after a Cattle on Feed release.", "reproducibility": "Each issuance freezes the implementation SHA-256, fitted ridge coefficients/normalization/penalty, exact training-row identity hash, event features, source hashes, and model-spec hash.", "schema_version": "alpha.model_card.structural_futures_v2.v1", "status": "RESEARCH_ONLY_UNVALIDATED", "target": "Nth actual later RTH last-trade close versus same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close before the after-close COF release; these are not official CME settlements.", "target_definition": "Nth actual later RTH last-trade close versus same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close before the after-close COF release; these are not official CME settlements.", "training": { "continuous_or_stitched_prices_used": false, "fixed_contract_only": true, "method": "Ridge regression fit only to fully labeled events available before each prediction timestamp.", "minimum_train_events": 24, "walk_forward_evaluation": true }, "training_cutoff": "Strictly before each prediction release; every included label must also have completed before that release.", "uncertainty": "Residual 10th/90th-percentile response interval where enough walk-forward residuals exist.", "validation_method": "Expanding-window point-in-time walk-forward", "validation_protocol": "Expanding-window, point-in-time walk-forward evaluation against an expanding-mean diagnostic baseline." }, "module": "ALPHA_STRUCTURAL_RADAR_V1", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "previous_vintage_record_hash": "cc926fd68e9ea2cc7ba143b14e6c967169fa00523ffeeba9bb562b7baee3fb2d", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "revision_ledger": [ { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_on_feed_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_placements_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_marketings_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_other_disappearance_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_less_than_600_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_600_699_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_700_799_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_800_899_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_900_999_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_1000_lbs_and_greater", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_head_count_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-16" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-16" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "blended_live_cash", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-16" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "tuesday_cutout_average_change_pct", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-14" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-04-01" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "intended_heifer_replacements", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-01-01" } ], "schema_version": "1.0.0", "semantic_fingerprint": "6c469cf883a21a12450046ee4d033422427345e5c085bbc4d39e33c885ab6a00", "separation_contract": { "auto_promotion_path": false, "calls_decision_components": false, "official_decision_effect": "NONE", "radar_write_root": "/opt/alpha_structural_radar", "reads_decision_outputs": false, "source_root_read_only": "/opt/alpha_current", "wow_command_effect": "NONE", "write_allowlist": [ "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs/structural_radar_status.json", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs/structural_radar_history.json", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/data/structural_radar/vintages.jsonl", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/state/structural_radar.lock" ], "writes_decision_outputs": false }, "source_ledger": [ { "error": null, "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 28, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-06-18", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "d645bf50b2eeaf9df712ddf6b8c690b9bb05772a5ceeed950a7c33a77d8ec0ff", "source_id": "USDA_NASS_COF", "source_module": "cattle_on_feed", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/cattle_on_feed_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-05", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "185c63ac13cfe3a010763bd815ef909dfc607e58f751a58e7ec2bdbf62b52f6c", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_TRADE", "source_module": "import_exports", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/import_exports_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "business_release_lag": 0, "calendar_age_days": 0, "expected_report_date": "2026-07-16", "holiday_calendar_note": "Weekday-aware; USDA holiday exceptions may produce WATCH until the next release.", "reason": "Latest expected weekday USDA CEI report is present.", "release_cutoff_ct": "15:45", "report_date": "2026-07-16", "state": "PASS", "status": "PASS", "weekend_aware": true }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-16 after 15:30 CT", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "447a86e9d37629e6e4226f38d446c51e2dbf11af2456db7edc25846388f636e8", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_CEI", "source_module": "ALPHA_PACKER_ECONOMICS_V1", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/packer_economics_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-16", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "01d3c6090538bb6428a11e89300c867f10b3163e8199d61b1051b1ce46219dfa", "source_id": "USDA_APHIS", "source_module": "animal_health", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/animal_health_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "pass_max_days": 2, "state": "PASS", "watch_max_days": 5 }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-16 daily publication", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "ea6837409033394460d13749d6308df4e7266349705138478a43d3d959d3e1dc", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_CASH", "source_module": "cash_cattle", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/cash_cattle_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "expected_latest_tuesday": "2026-07-14", "last_refresh_time_ct": "2026-07-16T06:59:29.597871-05:00", "latest_report_date": "2026-07-14", "reason": "Canonical Tuesday afternoon LM_XB403 history is current and complete.", "state": "PASS", "status_error": null, "status_report_date": "2026-07-14", "status_source_fingerprint": "2027cdf8ed4a7c48d5672b274003150a50154cd4402aaba529e4c6a090a53c4d", "status_source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/boxed_beef/boxed_beef_tuesday_history_status.json" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-14", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "4fc7f01ec6b4531a1c3c93384b3608a0938fc9fbbb97046828f45151e95b0563", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_BOXED_TUESDAY", "source_module": "boxed_beef_tuesday_history", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/boxed_beef/boxed_beef_tuesday_history.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-16T21:30:03", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-10", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "5a56532c1dc40e52c130b1dbb588e19bb68bf3e733a423e58f6dce4607640bd4", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT", "source_module": "weekly_kill_weights", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/weekly_kill_weights.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "cadence": "Quarterly USDA ERS feeder supply", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-04-01", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "32d71256ffb42497325ea439db5ed6a00752be99019c9ab73562950ad87f581b", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_FEEDER_SUPPLY", "source_module": "ers_feeder_supply", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/ers_livestock_domestic_data/livestock-data-machine-readable-files/FeederCattleSuppliesOutsideFeedlots.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "DERIVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "cadence": "Annual USDA ERS herd replacement", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-01-01", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "281e3d55e23156459116f1b342105d36eb78c6d3295597ee52f60c846528960d", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_HERD_REPLACEMENT", "source_module": "ers_heifer_replacements", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/ers_livestock_domestic_data/livestock-data-machine-readable-files/heifersenteringherd.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" } ], "status": "PASS", "structural_futures_v2": { "cohort_timing_bridge": { "assumptions": { "contract_mapping": "Each possible market-ready day maps to the nearest still-unexpired Feb/Apr/Jun/Aug/Oct/Dec Live Cattle contract midpoint. Expiry uses the last weekday as an approximation and does not encode exchange holidays.", "days_on_feed": { "1000_lbs_and_greater": [ 50, 110 ], "600_699_lbs": [ 170, 230 ], "700_799_lbs": [ 140, 200 ], "800_899_lbs": [ 110, 170 ], "900_999_lbs": [ 80, 140 ], "less_than_600_lbs": [ 190, 250 ] }, "exposure_weighting": "Placement day and days-on-feed are modeled as independent discrete uniform assumptions, then convolved. These are scenario weights, not empirical probabilities.", "interpretation": "Head-equivalent exposure is a timing bridge, not deliverable supply, open interest, fair value, or a price forecast.", "placement_date_uncertainty": "Earliest uses activity-month start; latest uses activity-month end." }, "buckets": [ { "bucket_id": "less_than_600_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 209836.1, "delta_head_equivalent": -9836.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 219672.1, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.655738 }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 110163.9, "delta_head_equivalent": -5163.9, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 115327.9, "symbol": "LEG7", "window_day_share": 0.344262 } ], "current_head": 320000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 250, "minimum": 190 }, "delta_head": -15000, "delta_pct": -4.478, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-11-07", "latest": "2027-02-05" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-11-25", "p50": "2026-12-22", "p90": "2027-01-18", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 335000 }, { "bucket_id": "600_699_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 11549.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -1684.3, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 13233.7, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.048123 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 211189.8, "delta_head_equivalent": -30798.5, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 241988.4, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.879958 }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 17260.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -2517.2, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 19777.9, "symbol": "LEG7", "window_day_share": 0.07192 } ], "current_head": 240000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 230, "minimum": 170 }, "delta_head": -35000, "delta_pct": -12.727, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-10-18", "latest": "2027-01-16" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-11-05", "p50": "2026-12-02", "p90": "2026-12-29", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 275000 }, { "bucket_id": "700_799_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 183606.6, "delta_head_equivalent": -22950.8, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 206557.4, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.459016 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 216393.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -27049.2, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 243442.6, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.540984 } ], "current_head": 400000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 200, "minimum": 140 }, "delta_head": -50000, 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"role": "near", "symbol": "LEQ6" }, { "cohort_timing_exposure": { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 706142.8, "delta_head_equivalent": -89816.5, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 795959.3, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEV6" }, "contract_id": "LE-2026-10", "horizons": [ { "conditional_fair_value": 241.825, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 239.2, 243.675 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d1", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": 0.531029, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-22" }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.721589, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -0.374333, 1.488104 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 242.075, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 236.45, 246.775 ], "estimate_status": 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"estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d40", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "predicted_response_pct": 2.053093, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.30899, 8.914597 ], "status": "PASS" } ], "role": "mid", "symbol": "LEV6" }, { "cohort_timing_exposure": { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 677569.5, "delta_head_equivalent": -74194.6, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 751764.1, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEZ6" }, "contract_id": "LE-2026-12", "horizons": [ { "conditional_fair_value": 240.8, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 238.65, 242.325 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d1", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": 0.585468, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-22" }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.697705, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -0.196348, 1.335889 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 241.175, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 235.65, 246.15 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d5", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": -0.230005, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-26" }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.857373, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.450258, 2.941915 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 241.675, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 234.8, 254.525 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d20", "latest_observed_outcome": { 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"curve_twist_model_active": false, "curve_twist_pricing_authority": "NONE", "fair_value_limitation": "Conditional report-response price is not an all-factor intrinsic fair value and cannot be promoted by this module.", "fixed_contract_only": true, "implementation_sha256": "122b355739d8f28522367bcb9b4097a897fa382cc2fbe049c89d448fb81c0d56", "known_limitations": [ "Historical price references are Databento RTH last-trade closes, not official CME settlements.", "Daily source rows do not retain the final bar timestamp; pre-release ordering relies on the scheduled 13:05 CT RTH close preceding the recorded 14:00 CT COF release.", "No licensed analyst-consensus surprise series is available; report features are printed YoY levels, not consensus surprises.", "Role, horizon, and regime heterogeneity remain research limitations; all operational gates stay closed." ], "latest_release_date": "2026-06-18", "model_version": "cof-fixed-contract-ridge-v2.1.0", "models": [ { 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Same-report roles, horizons, and revisions do not inflate the independent-release threshold. The sibling checkpoint is best-effort and no external WORM anchor exists; accountability is partial and predictive profitability is not graded.", "status": "PARTIAL", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "OPERATIONAL_ISOLATION", "earned": 15.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Base radar has no decision or WOW effect", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Registry writes only below the sibling radar root and the required runtime permission probe passes", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "No live-trade use, auto-promotion, or execution points", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Operational and WOW Command isolation", "status": "PASS", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "TRANSPARENCY", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Complete model card states purpose, target, data, leakage controls, limitations, and governance", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Scorecard names a frozen baseline and baseline-relative primary metric", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Model-card and baseline transparency", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 } ], "eligibility": { "operational_promotion_eligible": false, "predictive_profitability_grade_eligible": false, "status": "ELIGIBLE_SYSTEM_QUALITY_ONLY", "system_quality_grade_eligible": true }, "explicit_exclusions": [ "predictive profitability", "tradable edge", "live execution quality", "risk-adjusted returns" ], "max_points": 0, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "profitability_claim": false, "rubric_id": "ALPHA_SYSTEM_QUALITY_NON_PROFITABILITY_V1", "schema_version": "alpha.system_quality_audit.v1", "scope": "SYSTEM_DESIGN_DATA_INTEGRITY_GOVERNANCE_AND_ACCOUNTABILITY", "score": { "earned": 91.0, "grade": "A-", "maximum": 100.0, "normalized_10": 9.1 }, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "theses": [ { "active_alert_ids": [ "later_fed_pipeline_tightening", "weight_offsets_head_decline", "trade_cushions_domestic_availability", "processing_margin_pressure" ], "confirmation": "Later marketings and slaughter tighten after placement cohorts roll forward while meat cushions fade.", "contradictions": [ "cof_on_feed_head", "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs" ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "cof_placements_head", "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "beef_exports_ytd_cwe" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "current through 18 months", "invalidation": "Placements recover or meat availability remains ample enough to prevent the expected tightening.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "PRIMARY_WORKING_HYPOTHESIS", "state": "TIGHTENING_LATER_WITH_MEAT_CUSHIONS_NOW", "thesis_id": "later_head_tightness_near_meat_cushion", "title": "Later fed-cattle tightness, buffered near-term beef availability" }, { "confirmation": "Weights, imports, dairy-beef supply, or weak exports continue replacing domestic fed-cattle tonnage.", "contradictions": [ "cof_placements_head", "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots" ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "current through 12 months", "invalidation": "Weights normalize and trade cushions reverse before placements recover.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "COMPETING_HYPOTHESIS", "thesis_id": "meat_availability_outlasts_head_shortage", "title": "Beef availability stays adequate longer than cattle head counts imply" }, { "confirmation": "Verified capacity exits or sustained shift reductions tighten the hook-to-cattle balance.", "contradictions": [ "No verified plant closure is inferred from margin data alone." ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "cof_marketings_head", "weekly_fi_slaughter_head" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "3-24 months", "invalidation": "Margins recover and observed capacity remains stable.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "COMPETING_HYPOTHESIS", "thesis_id": "capacity_rationalization_changes_leverage", "title": "Processing-capacity rationalization changes packer and feedyard leverage" } ], "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "validation": { "all_units_typed": true, "decision_effect": "NONE", "failed_reconciliations": [], "futures_pricing_model_active": false, "maximum_execution_points": 0, "missing_core_metrics": [], "missing_inputs": [], "numeric_forecast_policy": "No forward numeric value is emitted until an independently validated model supplies it.", "point_in_time_only": true, "promotion_gate_passed": false, "semantic_vintage_chain_validation": "PASS_WITH_LEGACY_PREFIX", "semantic_vintage_checkpoint_prior_state": "PASS", "semantic_vintage_checkpoint_validation": "PASS", "semantic_vintage_external_anchor_present": false, "semantic_vintage_parse_strict": true, "semantic_vintages": true, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "vintage_record_hash": "971708d1faa2c2ed447b0ad03d18477ccb78fffc764ca1cbb91aee7bbb93973c", "warnings": [] }, { "balance_sheet": { "as_of": "2026-07-17", "periods": [ { "period": "Current feedlot inventory", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current fed-cattle inventory.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 29, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Cattle on feed", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_on_feed_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "feedlot_inventory", "unit": "head", "value": 11682000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": 2.0 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Incoming placement pipeline", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Incoming fed-cattle pipeline.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 29, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Monthly placements", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_placements_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "incoming_pipeline", "unit": "head", "value": 1704000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -10.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 29, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements under 600 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_less_than_600_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 320000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 29, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 600-699 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_600_699_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 240000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 29, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 700-799 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_700_799_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 400000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 29, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 800-899 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_800_899_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 444000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 29, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 900-999 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_900_999_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 225000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 29, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 1,000+ lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_1000_lbs_and_greater", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 75000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "USDA ERS-derived feeder-cattle reservoir outside feedlots; lower inventory can constrain future placements.", "freshness": { "cadence": "Quarterly USDA ERS feeder supply", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Feeder cattle outside feedlots", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_FEEDER_SUPPLY" ], "stage": "feeder_supply", "unit": "thousand_head", "value": 18776.97, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-04-01", "yoy_pct": 2.2631 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Fed-cattle outflow and meat production", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Fed-cattle outflow toward slaughter.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 29, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Monthly marketings", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_marketings_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "fed_outflow", "unit": "head", "value": 1551000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -12.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Non-marketing feedlot disappearance.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 29, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Other disappearance", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_other_disappearance_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "fed_outflow", "unit": "head", "value": 55000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -11.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Observed weekly cattle head throughput.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-17T21:30:03", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Weekly federally inspected slaughter", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "slaughter", "unit": "head", "value": 529000.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": -7.5175 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Pounds produced per slaughtered animal.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-17T21:30:03", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Average dressed weight", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "yield", "unit": "lb_per_head", "value": 889.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": 2.6559 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Observed weekly beef output combines head throughput and carcass yield.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-17T21:30:03", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Weekly beef production", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "meat_output", "unit": "million_lb", "value": 469.1, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": -5.0789 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Counterfactual pounds effect holding year-ago dressed weight constant.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-17T21:30:03", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Head-count contribution to weekly production change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_head_count_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "production_bridge", "unit": "million_lb", "value": -37.238, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Incremental pounds attributable to the dressed-weight change at current slaughter.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-17T21:30:03", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Dressed-weight contribution to weekly production change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "production_bridge", "unit": "million_lb", "value": 12.167, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": null } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Trade and domestic availability", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Imported beef adds to domestic carcass-weight-equivalent availability.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date beef imports", "metadata": { "ytd_comparable": true, "ytd_through_month": 5 }, "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 2754566570.58, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": 9.9 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Exported beef removes product from domestic availability while reflecting foreign demand.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date beef exports", "metadata": { "ytd_comparable": true, "ytd_through_month": 5 }, "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 978518541.27, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": -17.2 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Imports less exports; this is a product-availability measure, not a fed-cattle-equivalent count.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date net beef imports", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 1776048029.31, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": -1.7342, "economic_read": "Weekly wholesale movement; descriptive context only because its futures validation gate has not passed.", "freshness": { "expected_latest_tuesday": "2026-07-14", "last_refresh_time_ct": "2026-07-16T06:59:29.597871-05:00", "latest_report_date": "2026-07-14", "reason": "Canonical Tuesday afternoon LM_XB403 history is current and complete.", "state": "PASS", "status_error": null, "status_report_date": "2026-07-14", "status_source_fingerprint": "2027cdf8ed4a7c48d5672b274003150a50154cd4402aaba529e4c6a090a53c4d", "status_source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/boxed_beef/boxed_beef_tuesday_history_status.json" }, "label": "Tuesday Choice/Select average weekly change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "tuesday_cutout_average_change_pct", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_BOXED_TUESDAY" ], "stage": "wholesale_demand", "unit": "percent", "value": -1.7342, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-14", "yoy_pct": null } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Capacity, cash, herd, and policy context", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Standardized box-minus-live operating-spread proxy; not company net income and not a futures timing signal.", "freshness": { "business_release_lag": 0, "calendar_age_days": 0, "expected_report_date": "2026-07-17", "holiday_calendar_note": "Weekday-aware; USDA holiday exceptions may produce WATCH until the next release.", "reason": "Latest expected weekday USDA CEI report is present.", "release_cutoff_ct": "15:45", "report_date": "2026-07-17", "state": "PASS", "status": "PASS", "weekend_aware": true }, "label": "USDA CEI gross packer spread", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_CEI" ], "stage": "processing_economics", "unit": "usd_per_cwt_carcass", "value": -3.4054, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current operating status constrains or restores feeder-cattle inflow; duration and price impact are not assumed.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Southern livestock port status", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_APHIS" ], "stage": "biological_policy", "unit": "status", "value": "CLOSED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-16", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current cash transmission and feedyard/packer leverage context.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "pass_max_days": 2, "state": "PASS", "watch_max_days": 5 }, "label": "Blended live cash cattle", "metadata": { "change_vs_last_week_usd_per_cwt": -9.49 }, "metric_id": "blended_live_cash", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_CASH" ], "stage": "cash_transmission", "unit": "usd_per_cwt_live", "value": 236.72, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Replacement intentions inform herd rebuilding capacity; they do not guarantee retained females or calf-crop growth.", "freshness": { "cadence": "Annual USDA ERS herd replacement", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Intended heifer replacements", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "intended_heifer_replacements", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_HERD_REPLACEMENT" ], "stage": "breeding_herd", "unit": "thousand_head", "value": 8618.8, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-01-01", "yoy_pct": 0.361 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" } ], "reconciliations": [ { "actual": 1704000.0, "check_id": "cof_placement_buckets", "expected": 1704000.0, "name": "Placement weight buckets sum to placements", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 1000.0, "unit": "head" }, { "actual": 11682000.0, "check_id": "cof_head_flow", "expected": 11682000.0, "name": "Opening inventory plus placements less outflows equals closing inventory", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 1000.0, "unit": "head" }, { "actual": 469.1, "check_id": "weekly_production_bridge", "expected": 469.12899999999996, "name": "Year-ago production plus head effect plus weight effect reconciles to current production", "passed": true, "residual": -0.029, "tolerance": 2.3455000000000004, "unit": "million_lb" }, { "actual": 1776048029.31, "check_id": "net_trade_identity", "expected": 1776048029.31, "name": "Imports less exports equals net imports", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 0.01, "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent" } ], "status": "RECONCILED", "summary": { "beef_supply_change_pct": -5.0789, "dressed_weight_yoy_pct": 2.6559, "exports_ytd_change_pct": -17.2, "imports_ytd_change_pct": 9.9, "observation_count": 24, "reconciliation_count": 4, "reconciliation_pass_count": 4, "slaughter_yoy_pct": -7.5175, "source_count": 9, "source_ledger_row_count": 9, "status": "RECONCILED", "weight_offset_of_head_decline_pct": 32.67 }, "unit_policy": "No cattle-head-to-beef-pound conversion is made without an exposed observed weight or typed derivation." }, "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "change_alerts": [ { "alert_id": "later_fed_pipeline_tightening", "counter_evidence": "Current cattle on feed are +2.0% YoY.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "TIGHTENING_LATER", "horizon": "3-18 months", "invalidation": "Placements and feeder availability normalize, or the livestock-border constraint is formally removed.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "WATCH", "summary": "The later fed-cattle pipeline is tightening, but this is not a futures signal.", "triggers": [ { "label": "Placements -10.0% YoY", "metric_id": "cof_placements_head" }, { "label": "Southern livestock ports closed", "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports" } ] }, { "alert_id": "weight_offsets_head_decline", "counter_evidence": "Reported weekly beef production remains -5.1% YoY.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "MEAT_CUSHION", "horizon": "current to 3 months", "invalidation": "Dressed weights stop offsetting lower head throughput.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "ACTIVE", "summary": "Heavier carcasses are replacing part of the beef tonnage lost to lower slaughter.", "triggers": [ { "label": "Slaughter -7.5% YoY", "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head" }, { "label": "Dressed weight +2.7% YoY", "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs" } ] }, { "alert_id": "trade_cushions_domestic_availability", "counter_evidence": "Product mix and imported lean are not fully interchangeable with Choice fed-beef cuts.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "DOMESTIC_AVAILABILITY_CUSHION", "horizon": "current to 6 months", "invalidation": "Imports reverse lower and exports recover enough to remove the net availability cushion.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "ACTIVE", "summary": "Trade flows are cushioning domestic beef availability despite tighter cattle head counts.", "triggers": [ { "label": "YTD imports +9.9%", "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe" }, { "label": "YTD exports -17.2%", "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe" } ] }, { "alert_id": "processing_margin_pressure", "counter_evidence": "The CEI proxy is not company net income and plant-level economics vary.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "CAPACITY_RATIONALIZATION_RISK", "horizon": "current to 6 months", "invalidation": "Gross spreads recover persistently without a capacity reduction.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "WATCH", "summary": "Negative standardized packer spread and changing cash leverage keep capacity rationalization risk active.", "triggers": [ { "label": "CEI spread -3.41/cwt", "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass" }, { "label": "Cash weekly change -9.49/cwt", "metric_id": "blended_live_cash" } ] } ], "composer_contract": { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "composer_version": "alpha.structural_radar.composer.v2.0.0", "decision_effect": "NONE", "max_points": 0, "mode": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "conditional_contract_estimates": { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "contract_estimates": [ { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 245.4, 250.825 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 248.425, 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fixed-contract price response after a Cattle on Feed release.", "reproducibility": "Each issuance freezes the implementation SHA-256, fitted ridge coefficients/normalization/penalty, exact training-row identity hash, event features, source hashes, and model-spec hash.", "schema_version": "alpha.model_card.structural_futures_v2.v1", "status": "RESEARCH_ONLY_UNVALIDATED", "target": "Nth actual later RTH last-trade close versus same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close before the after-close COF release; these are not official CME settlements.", "target_definition": "Nth actual later RTH last-trade close versus same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close before the after-close COF release; these are not official CME settlements.", "training": { "continuous_or_stitched_prices_used": false, "fixed_contract_only": true, "method": "Ridge regression fit only to fully labeled events available before each prediction timestamp.", "minimum_train_events": 24, "walk_forward_evaluation": true }, "training_cutoff": "Strictly before each prediction release; every included label must also have completed before that release.", "uncertainty": "Residual 10th/90th-percentile response interval where enough walk-forward residuals exist.", "validation_method": "Expanding-window point-in-time walk-forward", "validation_protocol": "Expanding-window, point-in-time walk-forward evaluation against an expanding-mean diagnostic baseline." }, "module": "ALPHA_STRUCTURAL_FORECAST_REGISTRY", "outcome_states": { "MATURED_DATA_PENDING": 0, "OPEN": 0, "RESOLVED": 0 }, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "research_only": true, "safety": { "auto_promotion_path": false, "decision_effect": "NONE", "max_points": 0, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "radar_write_root": "/opt/alpha_structural_radar", "runtime_permission_probe": { "decision_probe_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/decision_status.json", "effective_uid": 997, "method": "NON_MUTATING_OS_ACCESS_EFFECTIVE_IDS", "radar_outputs_path": "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs", "required": true, "results": { "decision_output_writable": false, "radar_outputs_writable": true, "source_root_writable": false }, "source_root": "/opt/alpha_current", "status": "PASS" }, "source_root_read_only": "/opt/alpha_current", "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "wow_command_effect": "NONE", "write_allowlist": [ "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/data/structural_forecast_registry/records.jsonl", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs/structural_forecast_registry_status.json", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/state/structural_forecast_registry.lock" ], "writes_only_below_radar_root": true }, "schema_version": "alpha.structural_forecast_registry.v1", "scorecard": { "baseline": { "baseline_id": "ZERO_CHANGE_FIXED_CONTRACT_V1", "definition": "Zero report-response return from the pre-report fixed-contract close.", "frozen_at_issuance": true }, "by_contract_role": {}, "by_horizon": { "d1": { "baseline_mae_response_pct": null, "interval_80_coverage": null, "mae_skill_vs_zero_change_baseline": null, "model_directional_accuracy": null, "model_mae_response_pct": null, "model_mean_error_response_pct": null, "model_rmse_response_pct": null, "n_resolved": 0, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "unique_release_revision_count": 0, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, "d20": { "baseline_mae_response_pct": null, "interval_80_coverage": null, "mae_skill_vs_zero_change_baseline": null, "model_directional_accuracy": null, "model_mae_response_pct": null, "model_mean_error_response_pct": null, "model_rmse_response_pct": null, "n_resolved": 0, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "unique_release_revision_count": 0, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, "d40": { "baseline_mae_response_pct": null, "interval_80_coverage": null, "mae_skill_vs_zero_change_baseline": null, "model_directional_accuracy": null, "model_mae_response_pct": null, "model_mean_error_response_pct": null, "model_rmse_response_pct": null, "n_resolved": 0, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "unique_release_revision_count": 0, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, "d5": { "baseline_mae_response_pct": null, "interval_80_coverage": null, "mae_skill_vs_zero_change_baseline": null, "model_directional_accuracy": null, "model_mae_response_pct": null, "model_mean_error_response_pct": null, "model_rmse_response_pct": null, "n_resolved": 0, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "unique_release_revision_count": 0, "unique_report_release_count": 0 } }, "evaluation_population": "Only forecasts frozen while their target was genuinely open and later resolved from the same fixed contract.", "metric_policy": { "open_forecasts_scored": false, "primary": "MAE response percentage points relative to baseline MAE", "secondary": [ "RMSE", "mean error", "directional accuracy", "80% interval coverage" ] }, "overall": { "baseline_mae_response_pct": null, "interval_80_coverage": null, "mae_skill_vs_zero_change_baseline": null, "model_directional_accuracy": null, "model_mae_response_pct": null, "model_mean_error_response_pct": null, "model_rmse_response_pct": null, "n_resolved": 0, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "unique_release_revision_count": 0, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "profitability_claim": false, "schema_version": "alpha.structural_forecast_scorecard.v1" }, "status": "PASS", "warnings": [] }, "forecast_scorecard": { "baseline": "ZERO_CHANGE_FIXED_CONTRACT_V1", "baseline_name": "ZERO_CHANGE_FIXED_CONTRACT_V1", "breakdowns": [ { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d1", "label": "D1", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d5", "label": "D5", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d20", "label": "D20", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d40", "label": "D40", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 } ], "by_horizon": [ { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d1", "label": "D1", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d5", "label": "D5", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d20", "label": "D20", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d40", "label": "D40", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 } ], "calibration": [], "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "directional_accuracy": null, "forward_resolved_count": 0, "forward_resolved_forecast_count": 0, "forward_test_status": "OPEN_BOOK_NO_FORWARD_RESOLUTIONS", "interval_coverage": null, "mae": null, "mae_skill_vs_baseline": null, "matured_data_pending_count": 0, "mean_bias": null, "open_forecast_count": 0, "performance_status": "UNPROVEN", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "profitability_claim": false, "resolved_forecast_count": 0, "rmse": null, "schema_version": "alpha.structural_forecast_scorecard.v1", "skill_vs_baseline": null, "status": "NO_RESOLVED_FORWARD_FORECASTS", "unique_resolved_release_revision_count": 0, "unique_resolved_report_release_count": 0, "validation_mode": "IMMUTABLE_GENUINELY_FORWARD_OOS" }, "frozen_forecasts": [], "futures_implications": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESES", "generated_at_ct": "2026-07-17T16:50:52.126693-05:00", "headline": { "confidence": "HIGH", "dominant_stage": "placements_vs_meat_availability", "horizon": "current through 18 months", "state": "TIGHTENING_LATER_WITH_MEAT_CUSHIONS_NOW", "text": "The later fed-cattle pipeline is tightening while heavier carcasses and trade flows cushion beef availability now.", "what_changed": "Changed observations: packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass, blended_live_cash." }, "history": { "changed_metric_ids": [ "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "blended_live_cash" ], "previous_fingerprint": "6c469cf883a21a12450046ee4d033422427345e5c085bbc4d39e33c885ab6a00", "semantic_changed": true, "vintage_count": 15, "vintage_recorded": true }, "live_trade_status": "DISABLED", "max_points": 0, "mode": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "model_card": { "baseline": "Expanding historical mean inside V2 walk-forward diagnostics; zero-change baseline in the immutable forward registry.", "calibration_policy": "No calibrated claim until at least 36 independent genuinely forward report releases and at least 10 unique releases per claimed horizon; correlated role-by-horizon cells and same-report revisions do not count as independent releases. Current status remains NOT_CALIBRATED.", "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "data_sources": [ "USDA NASS COF as-released event rows", "Databento Live Cattle fixed-contract daily bars" ], "evaluation_metrics": [ "MAE", "baseline-relative MAE skill", "directional accuracy", "prediction correlation", "80% interval coverage" ], "fairness_scope": "Not applicable to people; monitor contract-month and market-regime coverage instead.", "feature_families": [ "USDA COF year-over-year release values", "activity-month seasonality" ], "features": [ "on_feed_yoy_delta_pp", "placements_yoy_delta_pp", "marketings_yoy_delta_pp", "activity_month_season_sin", "activity_month_season_cos" ], "governance": { "auto_promotion_path": false, "decision_effect": "NONE", "max_points": 0, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "horizon_definitions": { "d1": "1 actual later fixed-contract session(s)", "d20": "20 actual later fixed-contract session(s)", "d40": "40 actual later fixed-contract session(s)", "d5": "5 actual later fixed-contract session(s)" }, "horizons": [ "d1", "d5", "d20", "d40" ], "intended_uses": [ "research", "hypothesis tracking", "forward accountability", "contract-window comparison" ], "known_limitations": [ "No contemporaneous consensus-surprise feature", "Conditional report response is not all-factor intrinsic value", "Weekday target scheduling is conservative and is reconciled to actual fixed-contract sessions at resolution", "No demonstrated forward predictive edge yet", "No transaction costs, slippage, liquidity, or executable strategy economics" ], "leakage_controls": [ "As-released report values only", "Latest event excluded from training", "Training labels must complete before prediction", "Forward registry rejects horizons already mature at first issuance" ], "lifecycle_status": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "model_name": "Structural Futures V2 fixed-contract COF response", "model_type": "Expanding-window ridge regression with fixed-contract event responses", "model_version": "cof-fixed-contract-ridge-v2.1.0", "monitoring": { "baseline_relative_scorecard": true, "calibration_minimum_unique_report_releases": 36, "immutable_forecast_book": true, "open_outcomes_retained": true }, "owner": "Alpha Structural Radar research boundary", "prediction_population": "Highest-volume unexpired Live Cattle fixed contract and the next two listed expiries on the release date.", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "prohibited_uses": [ "WOW Command input", "official decision input", "live trading", "position sizing", "intrinsic fair-value claim" ], "promotion_criteria": [ "At least 36 independent genuinely forward report releases", "At least 10 unique report releases per claimed horizon", "Positive baseline-relative MAE skill with stable directional evidence", "Independent governance review; never automatic promotion" ], "promotion_gate_passed": false, "purpose": "Estimate a conditional fixed-contract price response after a Cattle on Feed release.", "reproducibility": "Each issuance freezes the implementation SHA-256, fitted ridge coefficients/normalization/penalty, exact training-row identity hash, event features, source hashes, and model-spec hash.", "schema_version": "alpha.model_card.structural_futures_v2.v1", "status": "RESEARCH_ONLY_UNVALIDATED", "target": "Nth actual later RTH last-trade close versus same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close before the after-close COF release; these are not official CME settlements.", "target_definition": "Nth actual later RTH last-trade close versus same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close before the after-close COF release; these are not official CME settlements.", "training": { "continuous_or_stitched_prices_used": false, "fixed_contract_only": true, "method": "Ridge regression fit only to fully labeled events available before each prediction timestamp.", "minimum_train_events": 24, "walk_forward_evaluation": true }, "training_cutoff": "Strictly before each prediction release; every included label must also have completed before that release.", "uncertainty": "Residual 10th/90th-percentile response interval where enough walk-forward residuals exist.", "validation_method": "Expanding-window point-in-time walk-forward", "validation_protocol": "Expanding-window, point-in-time walk-forward evaluation against an expanding-mean diagnostic baseline." }, "module": "ALPHA_STRUCTURAL_RADAR_V1", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "previous_vintage_record_hash": "971708d1faa2c2ed447b0ad03d18477ccb78fffc764ca1cbb91aee7bbb93973c", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "revision_ledger": [ { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_on_feed_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_placements_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_marketings_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_other_disappearance_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_less_than_600_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_600_699_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_700_799_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_800_899_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_900_999_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_1000_lbs_and_greater", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_head_count_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Period advanced from 2026-07-16 to 2026-07-17.", "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-16" }, { "detail": "Period advanced from 2026-07-16 to 2026-07-17.", "metric_id": "blended_live_cash", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "tuesday_cutout_average_change_pct", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-14" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-04-01" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "intended_heifer_replacements", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-01-01" } ], "schema_version": "1.0.0", "semantic_fingerprint": "e01a671031962ef588340915ebbe67c6baa84e1f83f16448595bb6e276ef12aa", "separation_contract": { "auto_promotion_path": false, "calls_decision_components": false, "official_decision_effect": "NONE", "radar_write_root": "/opt/alpha_structural_radar", "reads_decision_outputs": false, "source_root_read_only": "/opt/alpha_current", "wow_command_effect": "NONE", "write_allowlist": [ "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs/structural_radar_status.json", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs/structural_radar_history.json", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/data/structural_radar/vintages.jsonl", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/state/structural_radar.lock" ], "writes_decision_outputs": false }, "source_ledger": [ { "error": null, "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 29, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-06-18", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "7aaf88255a96a95e7053b4b69de1b0ee9e1ab38055781ea8a90268a82f653cc8", "source_id": "USDA_NASS_COF", "source_module": "cattle_on_feed", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/cattle_on_feed_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-05", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "1bba11a81aaa07bf31589f6b0c99b8c515e926c8b1b0a4abdde406d57998590f", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_TRADE", "source_module": "import_exports", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/import_exports_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "business_release_lag": 0, "calendar_age_days": 0, "expected_report_date": "2026-07-17", "holiday_calendar_note": "Weekday-aware; USDA holiday exceptions may produce WATCH until the next release.", "reason": "Latest expected weekday USDA CEI report is present.", "release_cutoff_ct": "15:45", "report_date": "2026-07-17", "state": "PASS", "status": "PASS", "weekend_aware": true }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-17 after 15:30 CT", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "e00086ce82855e878abf24257404e8f9be605639d5505f2fafcd2b95b80e7c44", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_CEI", "source_module": "ALPHA_PACKER_ECONOMICS_V1", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/packer_economics_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-16", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "e61ae1be6633eec491608d66cd0e2c712b7ba337ae14318c54696f0f1a352e3a", "source_id": "USDA_APHIS", "source_module": "animal_health", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/animal_health_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "pass_max_days": 2, "state": "PASS", "watch_max_days": 5 }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-17 daily publication", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "efdb1e7c88c65bcfbdbe609f5475c33fb3e38694f5e9334702b8a0ab40af1e95", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_CASH", "source_module": "cash_cattle", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/cash_cattle_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "expected_latest_tuesday": "2026-07-14", "last_refresh_time_ct": "2026-07-16T06:59:29.597871-05:00", "latest_report_date": "2026-07-14", "reason": "Canonical Tuesday afternoon LM_XB403 history is current and complete.", "state": "PASS", "status_error": null, "status_report_date": "2026-07-14", "status_source_fingerprint": "2027cdf8ed4a7c48d5672b274003150a50154cd4402aaba529e4c6a090a53c4d", "status_source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/boxed_beef/boxed_beef_tuesday_history_status.json" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-14", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "4fc7f01ec6b4531a1c3c93384b3608a0938fc9fbbb97046828f45151e95b0563", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_BOXED_TUESDAY", "source_module": "boxed_beef_tuesday_history", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/boxed_beef/boxed_beef_tuesday_history.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-17T21:30:03", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-10", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "6a59584b7f70216e6c3cdd66a477e8c92d31a07b83ffc7e292735d6b8179c1c1", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT", "source_module": "weekly_kill_weights", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/weekly_kill_weights.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "cadence": "Quarterly USDA ERS feeder supply", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-04-01", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "32d71256ffb42497325ea439db5ed6a00752be99019c9ab73562950ad87f581b", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_FEEDER_SUPPLY", "source_module": "ers_feeder_supply", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/ers_livestock_domestic_data/livestock-data-machine-readable-files/FeederCattleSuppliesOutsideFeedlots.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "DERIVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "cadence": "Annual USDA ERS herd replacement", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-01-01", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "281e3d55e23156459116f1b342105d36eb78c6d3295597ee52f60c846528960d", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_HERD_REPLACEMENT", "source_module": "ers_heifer_replacements", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/ers_livestock_domestic_data/livestock-data-machine-readable-files/heifersenteringherd.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" } ], "status": "PASS", "structural_futures_v2": { "cohort_timing_bridge": { "assumptions": { "contract_mapping": "Each possible market-ready day maps to the nearest still-unexpired Feb/Apr/Jun/Aug/Oct/Dec Live Cattle contract midpoint. Expiry uses the last weekday as an approximation and does not encode exchange holidays.", "days_on_feed": { "1000_lbs_and_greater": [ 50, 110 ], "600_699_lbs": [ 170, 230 ], "700_799_lbs": [ 140, 200 ], "800_899_lbs": [ 110, 170 ], "900_999_lbs": [ 80, 140 ], "less_than_600_lbs": [ 190, 250 ] }, "exposure_weighting": "Placement day and days-on-feed are modeled as independent discrete uniform assumptions, then convolved. These are scenario weights, not empirical probabilities.", "interpretation": "Head-equivalent exposure is a timing bridge, not deliverable supply, open interest, fair value, or a price forecast.", "placement_date_uncertainty": "Earliest uses activity-month start; latest uses activity-month end." }, "buckets": [ { "bucket_id": "less_than_600_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 209836.1, "delta_head_equivalent": -9836.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 219672.1, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.655738 }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 110163.9, "delta_head_equivalent": -5163.9, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 115327.9, "symbol": "LEG7", "window_day_share": 0.344262 } ], "current_head": 320000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 250, "minimum": 190 }, "delta_head": -15000, "delta_pct": -4.478, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-11-07", "latest": "2027-02-05" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-11-25", "p50": "2026-12-22", "p90": "2027-01-18", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 335000 }, { "bucket_id": "600_699_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 11549.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -1684.3, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 13233.7, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.048123 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 211189.8, "delta_head_equivalent": -30798.5, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 241988.4, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.879958 }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 17260.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -2517.2, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 19777.9, "symbol": "LEG7", "window_day_share": 0.07192 } ], "current_head": 240000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 230, "minimum": 170 }, "delta_head": -35000, "delta_pct": -12.727, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-10-18", "latest": "2027-01-16" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-11-05", "p50": "2026-12-02", "p90": "2026-12-29", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 275000 }, { "bucket_id": "700_799_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 183606.6, "delta_head_equivalent": -22950.8, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 206557.4, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.459016 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 216393.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -27049.2, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 243442.6, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.540984 } ], "current_head": 400000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 200, "minimum": 140 }, "delta_head": -50000, "delta_pct": -11.111, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-09-18", "latest": "2026-12-17" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-10-06", "p50": "2026-11-02", "p90": "2026-11-29", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 450000 }, { "bucket_id": "800_899_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 21366.5, "delta_head_equivalent": -3464.8, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 24831.3, "symbol": "LEQ6", "window_day_share": 0.048123 }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 382483.3, "delta_head_equivalent": -62024.3, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 444507.7, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.861449 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 40150.2, "delta_head_equivalent": -6510.8, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 46661.0, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.090428 } ], "current_head": 444000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 170, "minimum": 110 }, "delta_head": -72000, "delta_pct": -13.953, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-08-19", "latest": "2026-11-17" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-09-06", "p50": "2026-10-03", "p90": "2026-10-30", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 516000 }, { "bucket_id": "900_999_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 103278.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -2295.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 105573.8, "symbol": "LEQ6", "window_day_share": 0.459016 }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 121721.3, "delta_head_equivalent": -2704.9, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 124426.2, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.540984 } ], "current_head": 225000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 140, "minimum": 80 }, "delta_head": -5000, "delta_pct": -2.174, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-07-20", "latest": "2026-10-18" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-08-07", "p50": "2026-09-03", "p90": "2026-09-30", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 230000 }, { "bucket_id": "1000_lbs_and_greater", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-06", "current_head_equivalent": 2617.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -174.5, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 2792.2, "symbol": "LEM6", "window_day_share": 0.034902 }, { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 65600.2, "delta_head_equivalent": -4373.3, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 69973.6, "symbol": "LEQ6", "window_day_share": 0.874669 }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 6782.1, "delta_head_equivalent": -452.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 7234.3, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.090428 } ], "current_head": 75000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 110, "minimum": 50 }, "delta_head": -5000, "delta_pct": -6.25, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-06-20", "latest": "2026-09-18" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-07-08", "p50": "2026-08-04", "p90": "2026-08-31", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 80000 } ], "comparison": "SAME_ACTIVITY_MONTH_AS_RELEASED_YEAR_OVER_YEAR", "contracts": [ { "contract_month": "2026-06", "current_head_equivalent": 2617.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -174.5, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 2792.2, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEM6" }, { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 190245.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -10133.3, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 200378.6, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEQ6" }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 706142.8, "delta_head_equivalent": -89816.5, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 795959.3, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEV6" }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 677569.5, "delta_head_equivalent": -74194.6, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 751764.1, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEZ6" }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 127424.6, "delta_head_equivalent": -7681.1, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 135105.8, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEG7" } ], "latest_activity_month": "2026-05-01", "latest_release_date": "2026-06-18", "prior_year_activity_month": "2025-05-01", "prior_year_release_date": "2025-06-20", "reconciliations": [ { "actual": 1704000.0, "check_id": "latest_bucket_sum_to_placements", "expected": 1704000.0, "passed": true, "residual_head": 0.0, "tolerance_head": 1000.0 }, { "actual": 1886000.0, "check_id": "prior_bucket_sum_to_placements", "expected": 1886000.0, "passed": true, "residual_head": 0.0, "tolerance_head": 1000.0 }, { "actual": -182000.0, "check_id": "contract_exposure_delta_to_bucket_delta", "expected": -182000.0, "passed": true, "residual_head": 0.0, "tolerance_head": 1.0 } ], "status": "PASS" }, "contract_response_models": { "continuous_or_stitched_prices_used": false, "contract_estimates": [ { "cohort_timing_exposure": { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 190245.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -10133.3, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 200378.6, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEQ6" }, "contract_id": "LE-2026-08", "horizons": [ { "conditional_fair_value": 248.425, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 245.4, 250.825 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d1", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": 0.374873, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-22" }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.676151, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -0.548147, 1.653802 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 248.65, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 242.6, 254.025 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d5", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": -0.273556, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-26" }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.765928, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.683544, 2.951848 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 249.55, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 240.2, 264.075 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d20", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "predicted_response_pct": 1.131717, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -2.650467, 7.024054 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 251.75, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 242.55, 269.175 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d40", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "predicted_response_pct": 2.027405, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.702378, 9.086627 ], "status": "PASS" } ], "role": "near", "symbol": "LEQ6" }, { "cohort_timing_exposure": { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 706142.8, "delta_head_equivalent": -89816.5, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 795959.3, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEV6" }, "contract_id": "LE-2026-10", "horizons": [ { "conditional_fair_value": 241.825, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 239.2, 243.675 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d1", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": 0.531029, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-22" }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.721589, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -0.374333, 1.488104 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 242.075, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 236.45, 246.775 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d5", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": -0.322782, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-26" }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.81965, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.519832, 2.784357 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 242.9, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 233.525, 255.925 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d20", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "predicted_response_pct": 1.16672, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -2.742707, 6.594272 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 245.025, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 236.95, 261.5 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d40", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "predicted_response_pct": 2.053093, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.30899, 8.914597 ], "status": "PASS" } ], "role": "mid", "symbol": "LEV6" }, { "cohort_timing_exposure": { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 677569.5, "delta_head_equivalent": -74194.6, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 751764.1, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEZ6" }, "contract_id": "LE-2026-12", "horizons": [ { "conditional_fair_value": 240.8, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 238.65, 242.325 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d1", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": 0.585468, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-22" }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.697705, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -0.196348, 1.335889 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 241.175, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 235.65, 246.15 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d5", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": -0.230005, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-26" }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.857373, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.450258, 2.941915 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 241.675, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 234.8, 254.525 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d20", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "predicted_response_pct": 1.06329, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.805714, 6.442563 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 243.8, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 232.9, 258.5 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d40", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "predicted_response_pct": 1.958683, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -2.607012, 8.100815 ], "status": "PASS" } ], "role": "deferred", "symbol": "LEZ6" } ], "contract_selection": "Highest-volume unexpired named fixed contract is near; the next two canonical year-month expiries are mid and deferred.", 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"Capped at 12/15: the daily panel lacks a retained final-bar timestamp and historical original/correction completeness is not guaranteed.", "status": "PARTIAL", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "RECONCILIATION", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "All base observations are typed and reconciliations recompute within explicit units/tolerances", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Placement cohort-to-contract reconciliations recompute within head tolerances", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Accounting and reconciliation", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 }, { "dimension_id": "CONTRACT_HORIZONS", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Fixed contracts are used without continuous stitching", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "A unique, fully estimated near/mid/deferred D1/D5/D20/D40 fixed-contract grid is present", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Contract and horizon specificity", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 }, { "dimension_id": "MODEL_GOVERNANCE", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Operational promotion is false", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 }, { "criterion": "Predictive edge remains explicitly unproven", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 }, { "criterion": "Calibration remains explicitly incomplete", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 }, { "criterion": "Pricing authority and execution points are zero", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 } ], "label": "Model governance without promotion leakage", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 }, { "dimension_id": "FORWARD_ACCOUNTABILITY", "earned": 9.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Append-only registry freeze hashes validate", "max_points": 2.0, "passed": true, "points": 2.0 }, { "criterion": "Prior sibling checkpoint detects single-file tail loss", "max_points": 1.0, "passed": true, "points": 1.0 }, { "criterion": "An external protected/WORM ledger anchor exists", "max_points": 1.0, "passed": false, "points": 0 }, { "criterion": "Forecast IDs are deterministic and issuance is deduplicated", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Open and matured-unresolved outcomes remain explicit and unscored", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "At least 36 independent forward report releases and 10 unique releases per claimed horizon are resolved", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": false, "points": 0 } ], "label": "Immutable forward forecast accountability", "limitation": "0 correlated forecast cells across 0 independent report releases are resolved. Same-report roles, horizons, and revisions do not inflate the independent-release threshold. The sibling checkpoint is best-effort and no external WORM anchor exists; accountability is partial and predictive profitability is not graded.", "status": "PARTIAL", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "OPERATIONAL_ISOLATION", "earned": 15.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Base radar has no decision or WOW effect", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Registry writes only below the sibling radar root and the required runtime permission probe passes", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "No live-trade use, auto-promotion, or execution points", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Operational and WOW Command isolation", "status": "PASS", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "TRANSPARENCY", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Complete model card states purpose, target, data, leakage controls, limitations, and governance", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Scorecard names a frozen baseline and baseline-relative primary metric", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Model-card and baseline transparency", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 } ], "eligibility": { "operational_promotion_eligible": false, "predictive_profitability_grade_eligible": false, "status": "ELIGIBLE_SYSTEM_QUALITY_ONLY", "system_quality_grade_eligible": true }, "explicit_exclusions": [ "predictive profitability", "tradable edge", "live execution quality", "risk-adjusted returns" ], "max_points": 0, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "profitability_claim": false, "rubric_id": "ALPHA_SYSTEM_QUALITY_NON_PROFITABILITY_V1", "schema_version": "alpha.system_quality_audit.v1", "scope": "SYSTEM_DESIGN_DATA_INTEGRITY_GOVERNANCE_AND_ACCOUNTABILITY", "score": { "earned": 91.0, "grade": "A-", "maximum": 100.0, "normalized_10": 9.1 }, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "theses": [ { "active_alert_ids": [ "later_fed_pipeline_tightening", "weight_offsets_head_decline", "trade_cushions_domestic_availability", "processing_margin_pressure" ], "confirmation": "Later marketings and slaughter tighten after placement cohorts roll forward while meat cushions fade.", "contradictions": [ "cof_on_feed_head", "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs" ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "cof_placements_head", "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "beef_exports_ytd_cwe" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "current through 18 months", "invalidation": "Placements recover or meat availability remains ample enough to prevent the expected tightening.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "PRIMARY_WORKING_HYPOTHESIS", "state": "TIGHTENING_LATER_WITH_MEAT_CUSHIONS_NOW", "thesis_id": "later_head_tightness_near_meat_cushion", "title": "Later fed-cattle tightness, buffered near-term beef availability" }, { "confirmation": "Weights, imports, dairy-beef supply, or weak exports continue replacing domestic fed-cattle tonnage.", "contradictions": [ "cof_placements_head", "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots" ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "current through 12 months", "invalidation": "Weights normalize and trade cushions reverse before placements recover.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "COMPETING_HYPOTHESIS", "thesis_id": "meat_availability_outlasts_head_shortage", "title": "Beef availability stays adequate longer than cattle head counts imply" }, { "confirmation": "Verified capacity exits or sustained shift reductions tighten the hook-to-cattle balance.", "contradictions": [ "No verified plant closure is inferred from margin data alone." ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "cof_marketings_head", "weekly_fi_slaughter_head" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "3-24 months", "invalidation": "Margins recover and observed capacity remains stable.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "COMPETING_HYPOTHESIS", "thesis_id": "capacity_rationalization_changes_leverage", "title": "Processing-capacity rationalization changes packer and feedyard leverage" } ], "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "validation": { "all_units_typed": true, "decision_effect": "NONE", "failed_reconciliations": [], "futures_pricing_model_active": false, "maximum_execution_points": 0, "missing_core_metrics": [], "missing_inputs": [], "numeric_forecast_policy": "No forward numeric value is emitted until an independently validated model supplies it.", "point_in_time_only": true, "promotion_gate_passed": false, "semantic_vintage_chain_validation": "PASS_WITH_LEGACY_PREFIX", "semantic_vintage_checkpoint_prior_state": "PASS", "semantic_vintage_checkpoint_validation": "PASS", "semantic_vintage_external_anchor_present": false, "semantic_vintage_parse_strict": true, "semantic_vintages": true, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "vintage_record_hash": "7fee5c60dfc62fd56f5e596fdb0f0cd48569189fc84a96068350243d8ca3150d", "warnings": [] }, { "balance_sheet": { "as_of": "2026-07-17", "periods": [ { "period": "Current feedlot inventory", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current fed-cattle inventory.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 29, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Cattle on feed", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_on_feed_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "feedlot_inventory", "unit": "head", "value": 11682000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": 2.0 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Incoming placement pipeline", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Incoming fed-cattle pipeline.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 29, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Monthly placements", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_placements_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "incoming_pipeline", "unit": "head", "value": 1704000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -10.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 29, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements under 600 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_less_than_600_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 320000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 29, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 600-699 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_600_699_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 240000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 29, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 700-799 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_700_799_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 400000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 29, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 800-899 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_800_899_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 444000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 29, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 900-999 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_900_999_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 225000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 29, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 1,000+ lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_1000_lbs_and_greater", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 75000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "USDA ERS-derived feeder-cattle reservoir outside feedlots; lower inventory can constrain future placements.", "freshness": { "cadence": "Quarterly USDA ERS feeder supply", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Feeder cattle outside feedlots", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_FEEDER_SUPPLY" ], "stage": "feeder_supply", "unit": "thousand_head", "value": 18776.97, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-04-01", "yoy_pct": 2.2631 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Fed-cattle outflow and meat production", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Fed-cattle outflow toward slaughter.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 29, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Monthly marketings", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_marketings_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "fed_outflow", "unit": "head", "value": 1551000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -12.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Non-marketing feedlot disappearance.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 29, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Other disappearance", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_other_disappearance_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "fed_outflow", "unit": "head", "value": 55000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -11.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Observed weekly cattle head throughput.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-17T22:30:04", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Weekly federally inspected slaughter", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "slaughter", "unit": "head", "value": 529000.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": -7.5175 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Pounds produced per slaughtered animal.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-17T22:30:04", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Average dressed weight", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "yield", "unit": "lb_per_head", "value": 889.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": 2.6559 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Observed weekly beef output combines head throughput and carcass yield.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-17T22:30:04", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Weekly beef production", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "meat_output", "unit": "million_lb", "value": 469.1, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": -5.0789 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Counterfactual pounds effect holding year-ago dressed weight constant.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-17T22:30:04", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Head-count contribution to weekly production change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_head_count_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "production_bridge", "unit": "million_lb", "value": -37.238, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Incremental pounds attributable to the dressed-weight change at current slaughter.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-17T22:30:04", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Dressed-weight contribution to weekly production change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "production_bridge", "unit": "million_lb", "value": 12.167, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": null } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Trade and domestic availability", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Imported beef adds to domestic carcass-weight-equivalent availability.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date beef imports", "metadata": { "ytd_comparable": true, "ytd_through_month": 5 }, "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 2754566570.58, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": 9.9 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Exported beef removes product from domestic availability while reflecting foreign demand.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date beef exports", "metadata": { "ytd_comparable": true, "ytd_through_month": 5 }, "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 978518541.27, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": -17.2 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Imports less exports; this is a product-availability measure, not a fed-cattle-equivalent count.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date net beef imports", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 1776048029.31, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": -1.7342, "economic_read": "Weekly wholesale movement; descriptive context only because its futures validation gate has not passed.", "freshness": { "expected_latest_tuesday": "2026-07-14", "last_refresh_time_ct": "2026-07-16T06:59:29.597871-05:00", "latest_report_date": "2026-07-14", "reason": "Canonical Tuesday afternoon LM_XB403 history is current and complete.", "state": "PASS", "status_error": null, "status_report_date": "2026-07-14", "status_source_fingerprint": "2027cdf8ed4a7c48d5672b274003150a50154cd4402aaba529e4c6a090a53c4d", "status_source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/boxed_beef/boxed_beef_tuesday_history_status.json" }, "label": "Tuesday Choice/Select average weekly change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "tuesday_cutout_average_change_pct", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_BOXED_TUESDAY" ], "stage": "wholesale_demand", "unit": "percent", "value": -1.7342, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-14", "yoy_pct": null } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Capacity, cash, herd, and policy context", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Standardized box-minus-live operating-spread proxy; not company net income and not a futures timing signal.", "freshness": { "business_release_lag": 0, "calendar_age_days": 0, "expected_report_date": "2026-07-17", "holiday_calendar_note": "Weekday-aware; USDA holiday exceptions may produce WATCH until the next release.", "reason": "Latest expected weekday USDA CEI report is present.", "release_cutoff_ct": "15:45", "report_date": "2026-07-17", "state": "PASS", "status": "PASS", "weekend_aware": true }, "label": "USDA CEI gross packer spread", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_CEI" ], "stage": "processing_economics", "unit": "usd_per_cwt_carcass", "value": -3.4054, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current operating status constrains or restores feeder-cattle inflow; duration and price impact are not assumed.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Southern livestock port status", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_APHIS" ], "stage": "biological_policy", "unit": "status", "value": "CLOSED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-16", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current cash transmission and feedyard/packer leverage context.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "pass_max_days": 2, "state": "PASS", "watch_max_days": 5 }, "label": "Blended live cash cattle", "metadata": { "change_vs_last_week_usd_per_cwt": -9.49 }, "metric_id": "blended_live_cash", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_CASH" ], "stage": "cash_transmission", "unit": "usd_per_cwt_live", "value": 236.72, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Replacement intentions inform herd rebuilding capacity; they do not guarantee retained females or calf-crop growth.", "freshness": { "cadence": "Annual USDA ERS herd replacement", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Intended heifer replacements", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "intended_heifer_replacements", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_HERD_REPLACEMENT" ], "stage": "breeding_herd", "unit": "thousand_head", "value": 8618.8, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-01-01", "yoy_pct": 0.361 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" } ], "reconciliations": [ { "actual": 1704000.0, "check_id": "cof_placement_buckets", "expected": 1704000.0, "name": "Placement weight buckets sum to placements", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 1000.0, "unit": "head" }, { "actual": 11682000.0, "check_id": "cof_head_flow", "expected": 11682000.0, "name": "Opening inventory plus placements less outflows equals closing inventory", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 1000.0, "unit": "head" }, { "actual": 469.1, "check_id": "weekly_production_bridge", "expected": 469.12899999999996, "name": "Year-ago production plus head effect plus weight effect reconciles to current production", "passed": true, "residual": -0.029, "tolerance": 2.3455000000000004, "unit": "million_lb" }, { "actual": 1776048029.31, "check_id": "net_trade_identity", "expected": 1776048029.31, "name": "Imports less exports equals net imports", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 0.01, "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent" } ], "status": "RECONCILED", "summary": { "beef_supply_change_pct": -5.0789, "dressed_weight_yoy_pct": 2.6559, "exports_ytd_change_pct": -17.2, "imports_ytd_change_pct": 9.9, "observation_count": 24, "reconciliation_count": 4, "reconciliation_pass_count": 4, "slaughter_yoy_pct": -7.5175, "source_count": 9, "source_ledger_row_count": 9, "status": "RECONCILED", "weight_offset_of_head_decline_pct": 32.67 }, "unit_policy": "No cattle-head-to-beef-pound conversion is made without an exposed observed weight or typed derivation." }, "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "change_alerts": [ { "alert_id": "later_fed_pipeline_tightening", "counter_evidence": "Current cattle on feed are +2.0% YoY.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "TIGHTENING_LATER", "horizon": "3-18 months", "invalidation": "Placements and feeder availability normalize, or the livestock-border constraint is formally removed.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "WATCH", "summary": "The later fed-cattle pipeline is tightening, but this is not a futures signal.", "triggers": [ { "label": "Placements -10.0% YoY", "metric_id": "cof_placements_head" }, { "label": "Southern livestock ports closed", "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports" } ] }, { "alert_id": "weight_offsets_head_decline", "counter_evidence": "Reported weekly beef production remains -5.1% YoY.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "MEAT_CUSHION", "horizon": "current to 3 months", "invalidation": "Dressed weights stop offsetting lower head throughput.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "ACTIVE", "summary": "Heavier carcasses are replacing part of the beef tonnage lost to lower slaughter.", "triggers": [ { "label": "Slaughter -7.5% YoY", "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head" }, { "label": "Dressed weight +2.7% YoY", "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs" } ] }, { "alert_id": "trade_cushions_domestic_availability", "counter_evidence": "Product mix and imported lean are not fully interchangeable with Choice fed-beef cuts.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "DOMESTIC_AVAILABILITY_CUSHION", "horizon": "current to 6 months", "invalidation": "Imports reverse lower and exports recover enough to remove the net availability cushion.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "ACTIVE", "summary": "Trade flows are cushioning domestic beef availability despite tighter cattle head counts.", "triggers": [ { "label": "YTD imports +9.9%", "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe" }, { "label": "YTD exports -17.2%", "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe" } ] }, { "alert_id": "processing_margin_pressure", "counter_evidence": "The CEI proxy is not company net income and plant-level economics vary.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "CAPACITY_RATIONALIZATION_RISK", "horizon": "current to 6 months", "invalidation": "Gross spreads recover persistently without a capacity reduction.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "WATCH", "summary": "Negative standardized packer spread and changing cash leverage keep capacity rationalization risk active.", "triggers": [ { "label": "CEI spread -3.41/cwt", "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass" }, { "label": "Cash weekly change -9.49/cwt", "metric_id": "blended_live_cash" } ] } ], "composer_contract": { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "composer_version": "alpha.structural_radar.composer.v2.0.0", "decision_effect": "NONE", "max_points": 0, "mode": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "conditional_contract_estimates": { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "contract_estimates": [ { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 245.4, 250.825 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 248.425, 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"decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-06-25T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d5", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": -0.273556, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-26" }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 246.75, "predicted_response_pct": 0.765928, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-08", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.683544, 2.951848 ], "symbol": "LEQ6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 240.2, 264.075 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 249.55, "contract_role": "near", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-07-16T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d20", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "status": "OPEN_OR_NOT_YET_OBSERVABLE", "target_date": null }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 246.75, "predicted_response_pct": 1.131717, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-08", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -2.650467, 7.024054 ], "symbol": "LEQ6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 242.55, 269.175 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 251.75, "contract_role": "near", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": 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"CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-07-16T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d20", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "status": "OPEN_OR_NOT_YET_OBSERVABLE", "target_date": null }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 239.125, "predicted_response_pct": 1.06329, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-12", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.805714, 6.442563 ], "symbol": "LEZ6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 232.9, 258.5 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 243.8, "contract_role": "deferred", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-08-13T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d40", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "status": "OPEN_OR_NOT_YET_OBSERVABLE", "target_date": null }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 239.125, "predicted_response_pct": 1.958683, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-12", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -2.607012, 8.100815 ], "symbol": "LEZ6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" } ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "definition": "Conditional fixed-contract COF report-response estimates, never intrinsic fair value or trade instructions.", "max_points": 0, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "schema_version": "alpha.conditional_contract_estimates.v1", "status": "RESEARCH_ONLY", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "decision_use": "CONTEXT", "errors": [], "extension_fields": [ "calibration_status", "composer_contract", "conditional_contract_estimates", "fair_values", "forecast_book", "forecast_registry", "forecast_scorecard", "frozen_forecasts", "model_card", "operational_promotion_gate_passed", "predictive_edge_status", "pricing_authority", "structural_futures_v2", "system_quality_audit" ], "fair_values": [ { "as_of_price": 246.75, "contract": "LEQ6", "decision_effect": "NONE", "edge_pct": 0.676151, "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_return_pct": 0.676151, "fair_value": 248.425, "horizon": "d1", "interval": [ 245.4, 250.825 ], "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "market": "LIVE_CATTLE", "model_version": "cof-fixed-contract-ridge-v2.1.0", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": 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unique releases per claimed horizon; correlated role-by-horizon cells and same-report revisions do not count as independent releases. 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"training_cutoff": "Strictly before each prediction release; every included label must also have completed before that release.", "uncertainty": "Residual 10th/90th-percentile response interval where enough walk-forward residuals exist.", "validation_method": "Expanding-window point-in-time walk-forward", "validation_protocol": "Expanding-window, point-in-time walk-forward evaluation against an expanding-mean diagnostic baseline." }, "module": "ALPHA_STRUCTURAL_RADAR_V1", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "previous_vintage_record_hash": "7fee5c60dfc62fd56f5e596fdb0f0cd48569189fc84a96068350243d8ca3150d", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "revision_ledger": [ { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_on_feed_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_placements_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_marketings_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_other_disappearance_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_less_than_600_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_600_699_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_700_799_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_800_899_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_900_999_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_1000_lbs_and_greater", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_head_count_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-16" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "blended_live_cash", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "tuesday_cutout_average_change_pct", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-14" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-04-01" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "intended_heifer_replacements", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-01-01" } ], "schema_version": "1.0.0", "semantic_fingerprint": "c97408ca78849651cd9cecf30f4bd5e56d3890f0ae1e596d45157c5c5759b0f0", "separation_contract": { "auto_promotion_path": false, "calls_decision_components": false, "official_decision_effect": "NONE", "radar_write_root": "/opt/alpha_structural_radar", "reads_decision_outputs": false, "source_root_read_only": "/opt/alpha_current", "wow_command_effect": "NONE", "write_allowlist": [ "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs/structural_radar_status.json", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs/structural_radar_history.json", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/data/structural_radar/vintages.jsonl", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/state/structural_radar.lock" ], "writes_decision_outputs": false }, "source_ledger": [ { "error": null, "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 29, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-06-18", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "296f1896a8c67b4691aeede07c9bf5525431895ae8c23c7e98f3d0259bfc22d4", "source_id": "USDA_NASS_COF", "source_module": "cattle_on_feed", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/cattle_on_feed_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-05", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "aa451f6efac67e2ba9d83db16e235c60350e31adf30c91474aa921c503924d7c", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_TRADE", "source_module": "import_exports", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/import_exports_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "business_release_lag": 0, "calendar_age_days": 0, "expected_report_date": "2026-07-17", "holiday_calendar_note": "Weekday-aware; USDA holiday exceptions may produce WATCH until the next release.", "reason": "Latest expected weekday USDA CEI report is present.", "release_cutoff_ct": "15:45", "report_date": "2026-07-17", "state": "PASS", "status": "PASS", "weekend_aware": true }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-17 after 15:30 CT", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "48f96e1012219d4c2366c13b018bc2e9bbbac85b921fa22c380cc7c273af5288", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_CEI", "source_module": "ALPHA_PACKER_ECONOMICS_V1", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/packer_economics_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-16", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "383fb5e8d19ec5ea1fbcb5cb6d1852eba371339538456d344ce796642d08bef9", "source_id": "USDA_APHIS", "source_module": "animal_health", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/animal_health_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "pass_max_days": 2, "state": "PASS", "watch_max_days": 5 }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-17 daily publication", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "527038b31479017a89081a8a37e30d5cd74267e63d3d1c7c334265f067e1ee5c", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_CASH", "source_module": "cash_cattle", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/cash_cattle_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "expected_latest_tuesday": "2026-07-14", "last_refresh_time_ct": "2026-07-16T06:59:29.597871-05:00", "latest_report_date": "2026-07-14", "reason": "Canonical Tuesday afternoon LM_XB403 history is current and complete.", "state": "PASS", "status_error": null, "status_report_date": "2026-07-14", "status_source_fingerprint": "2027cdf8ed4a7c48d5672b274003150a50154cd4402aaba529e4c6a090a53c4d", "status_source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/boxed_beef/boxed_beef_tuesday_history_status.json" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-14", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "4fc7f01ec6b4531a1c3c93384b3608a0938fc9fbbb97046828f45151e95b0563", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_BOXED_TUESDAY", "source_module": "boxed_beef_tuesday_history", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/boxed_beef/boxed_beef_tuesday_history.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-17T22:30:04", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-10", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "1b1297457c37bd8dc9d559021a6a32580da7ecda457afeda468a1a8bbdb9d97b", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT", "source_module": "weekly_kill_weights", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/weekly_kill_weights.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "cadence": "Quarterly USDA ERS feeder supply", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-04-01", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "32d71256ffb42497325ea439db5ed6a00752be99019c9ab73562950ad87f581b", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_FEEDER_SUPPLY", "source_module": "ers_feeder_supply", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/ers_livestock_domestic_data/livestock-data-machine-readable-files/FeederCattleSuppliesOutsideFeedlots.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "DERIVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "cadence": "Annual USDA ERS herd replacement", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-01-01", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "281e3d55e23156459116f1b342105d36eb78c6d3295597ee52f60c846528960d", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_HERD_REPLACEMENT", "source_module": "ers_heifer_replacements", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/ers_livestock_domestic_data/livestock-data-machine-readable-files/heifersenteringherd.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" } ], "status": "PASS", "structural_futures_v2": { "cohort_timing_bridge": { "assumptions": { "contract_mapping": "Each possible market-ready day maps to the nearest still-unexpired Feb/Apr/Jun/Aug/Oct/Dec Live Cattle contract midpoint. Expiry uses the last weekday as an approximation and does not encode exchange holidays.", "days_on_feed": { "1000_lbs_and_greater": [ 50, 110 ], "600_699_lbs": [ 170, 230 ], "700_799_lbs": [ 140, 200 ], "800_899_lbs": [ 110, 170 ], "900_999_lbs": [ 80, 140 ], "less_than_600_lbs": [ 190, 250 ] }, "exposure_weighting": "Placement day and days-on-feed are modeled as independent discrete uniform assumptions, then convolved. These are scenario weights, not empirical probabilities.", "interpretation": "Head-equivalent exposure is a timing bridge, not deliverable supply, open interest, fair value, or a price forecast.", "placement_date_uncertainty": "Earliest uses activity-month start; latest uses activity-month end." }, "buckets": [ { "bucket_id": "less_than_600_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 209836.1, "delta_head_equivalent": -9836.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 219672.1, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.655738 }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 110163.9, "delta_head_equivalent": -5163.9, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 115327.9, "symbol": "LEG7", "window_day_share": 0.344262 } ], "current_head": 320000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 250, "minimum": 190 }, "delta_head": -15000, "delta_pct": -4.478, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-11-07", "latest": "2027-02-05" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-11-25", "p50": "2026-12-22", "p90": "2027-01-18", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 335000 }, { "bucket_id": "600_699_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 11549.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -1684.3, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 13233.7, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.048123 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 211189.8, "delta_head_equivalent": -30798.5, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 241988.4, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.879958 }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 17260.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -2517.2, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 19777.9, "symbol": "LEG7", "window_day_share": 0.07192 } ], "current_head": 240000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 230, "minimum": 170 }, "delta_head": -35000, "delta_pct": -12.727, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-10-18", "latest": "2027-01-16" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-11-05", "p50": "2026-12-02", "p90": "2026-12-29", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 275000 }, { "bucket_id": "700_799_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 183606.6, "delta_head_equivalent": -22950.8, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 206557.4, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.459016 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 216393.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -27049.2, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 243442.6, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.540984 } ], "current_head": 400000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 200, "minimum": 140 }, "delta_head": -50000, "delta_pct": -11.111, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-09-18", "latest": "2026-12-17" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-10-06", "p50": "2026-11-02", "p90": "2026-11-29", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 450000 }, { "bucket_id": "800_899_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 21366.5, "delta_head_equivalent": -3464.8, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 24831.3, "symbol": "LEQ6", "window_day_share": 0.048123 }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 382483.3, "delta_head_equivalent": -62024.3, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 444507.7, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.861449 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 40150.2, "delta_head_equivalent": -6510.8, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 46661.0, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.090428 } ], "current_head": 444000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 170, "minimum": 110 }, "delta_head": -72000, "delta_pct": -13.953, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-08-19", "latest": "2026-11-17" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-09-06", "p50": "2026-10-03", "p90": "2026-10-30", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 516000 }, { "bucket_id": "900_999_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 103278.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -2295.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 105573.8, "symbol": "LEQ6", "window_day_share": 0.459016 }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 121721.3, "delta_head_equivalent": -2704.9, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 124426.2, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.540984 } ], "current_head": 225000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 140, "minimum": 80 }, "delta_head": -5000, "delta_pct": -2.174, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-07-20", "latest": "2026-10-18" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-08-07", "p50": "2026-09-03", "p90": "2026-09-30", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 230000 }, { "bucket_id": "1000_lbs_and_greater", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-06", "current_head_equivalent": 2617.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -174.5, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 2792.2, "symbol": "LEM6", "window_day_share": 0.034902 }, { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 65600.2, "delta_head_equivalent": -4373.3, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 69973.6, "symbol": "LEQ6", "window_day_share": 0.874669 }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 6782.1, "delta_head_equivalent": -452.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 7234.3, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.090428 } ], "current_head": 75000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 110, "minimum": 50 }, "delta_head": -5000, "delta_pct": -6.25, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-06-20", "latest": "2026-09-18" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-07-08", "p50": "2026-08-04", "p90": "2026-08-31", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 80000 } ], "comparison": "SAME_ACTIVITY_MONTH_AS_RELEASED_YEAR_OVER_YEAR", "contracts": [ { "contract_month": "2026-06", "current_head_equivalent": 2617.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -174.5, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 2792.2, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEM6" }, { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 190245.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -10133.3, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 200378.6, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEQ6" }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 706142.8, "delta_head_equivalent": -89816.5, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 795959.3, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEV6" }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 677569.5, "delta_head_equivalent": -74194.6, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 751764.1, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEZ6" }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 127424.6, "delta_head_equivalent": -7681.1, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 135105.8, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEG7" } ], "latest_activity_month": "2026-05-01", "latest_release_date": "2026-06-18", "prior_year_activity_month": "2025-05-01", "prior_year_release_date": 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"UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "fair_value_definition": "Same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close multiplied by the estimated report-response return; not an official settlement, intrinsic value, or promoted forecast.", "feature_names": [ "on_feed_yoy_delta_pp", "placements_yoy_delta_pp", "marketings_yoy_delta_pp", "season_sin", "season_cos" ], "fitted_artifact": { "artifact_sha256": "7e4c7d90dacb4a2a4364f1162a2ceb59b0d98f66ea9d9cb620e960f0c21dcf5c", "coefficients_intercept_first": [ 1.637046266685, -0.887110174762, -0.195111224833, -0.317762161399, 0.50808229049, -0.293302016189 ], "feature_means": [ -0.32, -1.693333333333, -1.506666666667, 0.044880338717, 0.031547005384 ], "feature_names": [ "on_feed_yoy_delta_pp", "placements_yoy_delta_pp", "marketings_yoy_delta_pp", "season_sin", "season_cos" ], "feature_scales": [ 2.104978226332, 8.176345285164, 8.314442588385, 0.700941572836, 0.711105796009 ], "ridge_penalty": 4.0, "training_row_count": 75, "training_row_identity_sha256": "e66dad219c983fde988e04a569aa3adc0fc81d5e37247d97f8854df408c32f52" }, "gate_checks": { "beats_zero_return_baseline": true, "directional_accuracy_at_least_52pct": true, "interval_80_coverage_65_to_90pct": false, "mae_skill_at_least_5pct": false, "n_oos_at_least_36": true, "prediction_correlation_at_least_0_10": false }, "horizon": "d40", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "max_training_label_date": "2026-06-15", "min_train_events": 24, "model_version": "cof-fixed-contract-ridge-v2.1.0", "n_train": 75, "pre_report_close": 239.125, "predicted_response_pct": 1.958683, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-12", "prediction_release_date": "2026-06-18", "prediction_symbol": "LEZ6", "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "research_only": true, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -2.607012, 8.100815 ], "role": "deferred", "status": "PASS", "strictly_prior_training": true, "training_max_release_date": "2026-04-17", "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "walk_forward": { "baseline_mae_return_pct": 3.632719, "directional_accuracy": 0.64, "interval_80_coverage": 0.6, "interval_coverage_n": 35, "mae_return_pct": 3.544136, "mae_skill_vs_expanding_mean": 0.024385, "mae_skill_vs_zero_return": 0.107422, "n_oos": 50, "prediction_correlation": -0.02018, "zero_return_baseline_mae_pct": 3.970674 }, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" } ], "multiplicity_policy": "Twelve role-by-horizon candidates are exposed together; no familywise or FDR gate has passed, so operational promotion is prohibited.", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "statistical_gate_pass_count": 0, "target_definition": "Nth actual later RTH last-trade close versus same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close before the after-close COF release; these are not official CME settlements." }, "decision_effect": "NONE", "errors": [], "headline": "Placement cohorts are mapped to contract windows; price estimates remain conditional and research-only.", "live": false, "max_points": 0, "mode": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "module": "ALPHA_STRUCTURAL_FUTURES_V2", "point_in_time_events": { "as_of_cutoff_ct": "2026-07-18T05:50:11.180749-05:00", "consensus_surprise_available": false, "consensus_surprise_used": false, "event_count": 114, "feature_policy": "Only values printed in the as-released row plus activity-month season terms are features.", "latest_event": { "activity_month": "2026-05-01", "availability_rule": "Feature values become available only at the recorded USDA release timestamp.", "event_id": "795942", "observations": [ { "known_at_ct": "2026-06-18T14:00:00-05:00", "observation_id": "on_feed_yoy_delta_pp", "unit": "percentage_point", "value": 2.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED_RELEASE" }, { "known_at_ct": "2026-06-18T14:00:00-05:00", "observation_id": "placements_yoy_delta_pp", "unit": "percentage_point", "value": -10.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED_RELEASE" }, { "known_at_ct": "2026-06-18T14:00:00-05:00", "observation_id": "marketings_yoy_delta_pp", "unit": "percentage_point", "value": -12.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED_RELEASE" }, { "known_at_ct": "2026-06-18T14:00:00-05:00", "observation_id": "season_sin", "unit": "cyclical_component", "value": 0.5, "value_kind": "DERIVED_FROM_ACTIVITY_MONTH" }, { "known_at_ct": "2026-06-18T14:00:00-05:00", "observation_id": "season_cos", "unit": "cyclical_component", "value": -0.866025, "value_kind": "DERIVED_FROM_ACTIVITY_MONTH" } ], "provenance": { "source_sha256": "da477404f359a36b9d2b412f0dfdeaa4f3b05596c898c0655184124228fa9fbf", "source_url": "https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795942/cofd0626.txt" }, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "release_revision_id": "795942@2026-06-18T14:00:00-05:00", "release_timestamp_ct": "2026-06-18T14:00:00-05:00", "release_timestamp_kind": "RECORDED_SOURCE_TIMESTAMP", "research_only": true, "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false } }, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "research_only": true, "schema_version": "alpha.structural_futures.v2", "semantic_fingerprint": "273ba11c5475b039f997ab20e90fed993ad9b01005f1e410014a4c5f4acf05f9", "source_ledger": [ { "path": "/opt/alpha_current/data/cattle_on_feed/report_events.csv", "read_only": true, "rows": 114, "sha256": "8c9fa84f4a2ce005f1a3e636a6a01f0051000c3b69de93c11e649ab753fa166b", "source_id": "USDA_NASS_COF_AS_RELEASED" }, { "path": "/opt/alpha_current/data/cattle_on_feed/le_fixed_ohlcv_1d.parquet", "read_only": true, "rows": 14279, "sha256": "7a4e8af3320c10732a4296eeecce2ec0bd2db6b67719b69705ae3ff0a377a30b", "source_id": "DATABENTO_LE_FIXED_CONTRACT_DAILY" } ], "status": "PASS", "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "validation": { "all_training_labels_completed_before_prediction": true, "cohort_reconciliations_passed": true, "corrections_after_response_anchor_excluded": true, "data_status": { "event_rows": 114, "first_event_date": "2017-01-27", "fixed_contract_rows": 14279, "latest_event_date": "2026-06-18", "latest_event_price_reference_available": true, "price_first_date": "2020-01-02", "price_last_date": "2026-07-17", "response_panel_rows": 231 }, "events_filtered_to_as_of_cutoff": true, "historical_correction_policy": "Recorded same-date revisions are cutoff-aware. Later-date corrections are excluded from the report-response panel so they cannot be paired with an already-observed original-report return path; displaced originals are not guaranteed recoverable for every historical USDA correction.", "historical_original_corrections_complete": false, "latest_event_excluded_from_training": true, "model_gate_is_not_operational_gate": true, "numeric_forecast_policy": "No estimate is emitted with insufficient prior history; no model estimate affects WOW or decisions.", "point_in_time_release_timestamps": true, "price_reference_is_official_settlement": false, "price_reference_timestamp_retained": false, "price_rows_filtered_to_as_of_cutoff": true, "price_rows_unique_by_date_contract": true }, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "system_quality_audit": { "accountability_status": "PARTIAL", "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "critical_gates": { "decision_isolation_gate": true, "immutable_registry_gate": true, "no_operational_promotion_gate": true, "no_predictive_skill_claim_gate": true, "overall_health_gate": true, "point_in_time_gate": true, "reconciliation_gate": true, "runtime_permission_probe_gate": true, "source_alignment_and_price_freshness_gate": true, "wow_isolation_gate": true }, "critical_gates_passed": true, "decision_effect": "NONE", "dimensions": [ { "dimension_id": "SOURCE_PROVENANCE", "earned": 15.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "At least eight unique structural sources have explicit non-stale freshness, observed-at values, and fingerprints", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Every base ledger row is identified, fingerprinted, and read-only", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Both required V2 sources are nonempty, read-only, and SHA-256 fingerprinted", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Base COF and V2 latest releases align, and the fixed-contract panel is current", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Base structural vintages parse strictly, checkpoint tail loss, and chain new semantic records", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 } ], "label": "Source provenance and semantic integrity", "status": "PASS", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "POINT_IN_TIME", "earned": 12.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Events and prices are filtered to the as-of cutoff", "max_points": 4.0, "passed": true, "points": 4.0 }, { "criterion": "Training labels complete before prediction and latest event is excluded", "max_points": 4.0, "passed": true, "points": 4.0 }, { "criterion": "As-released event timestamps are retained", "max_points": 4.0, "passed": true, "points": 4.0 }, { "criterion": "Daily price reference retains a final-bar timestamp", "max_points": 1.5, "passed": false, "points": 0 }, { "criterion": "Historical original/correction pairs are complete", "max_points": 1.5, "passed": false, "points": 0 } ], "label": "Point-in-time and leakage controls", "limitation": "Capped at 12/15: the daily panel lacks a retained final-bar timestamp and historical original/correction completeness is not guaranteed.", "status": "PARTIAL", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "RECONCILIATION", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "All base observations are typed and reconciliations recompute within explicit units/tolerances", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Placement cohort-to-contract reconciliations recompute within head tolerances", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Accounting and reconciliation", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 }, { "dimension_id": "CONTRACT_HORIZONS", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Fixed contracts are used without continuous stitching", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "A unique, fully estimated near/mid/deferred D1/D5/D20/D40 fixed-contract grid is present", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Contract and horizon specificity", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 }, { "dimension_id": "MODEL_GOVERNANCE", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Operational promotion is false", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 }, { "criterion": "Predictive edge remains explicitly unproven", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 }, { "criterion": "Calibration remains explicitly incomplete", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 }, { "criterion": "Pricing authority and execution points are zero", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 } ], "label": "Model governance without promotion leakage", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 }, { "dimension_id": "FORWARD_ACCOUNTABILITY", "earned": 9.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Append-only registry freeze hashes validate", "max_points": 2.0, "passed": true, "points": 2.0 }, { "criterion": "Prior sibling checkpoint detects single-file tail loss", "max_points": 1.0, "passed": true, "points": 1.0 }, { "criterion": "An external protected/WORM ledger anchor exists", "max_points": 1.0, "passed": false, "points": 0 }, { "criterion": "Forecast IDs are deterministic and issuance is deduplicated", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Open and matured-unresolved outcomes remain explicit and unscored", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "At least 36 independent forward report releases and 10 unique releases per claimed horizon are resolved", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": false, "points": 0 } ], "label": "Immutable forward forecast accountability", "limitation": "0 correlated forecast cells across 0 independent report releases are resolved. Same-report roles, horizons, and revisions do not inflate the independent-release threshold. The sibling checkpoint is best-effort and no external WORM anchor exists; accountability is partial and predictive profitability is not graded.", "status": "PARTIAL", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "OPERATIONAL_ISOLATION", "earned": 15.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Base radar has no decision or WOW effect", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Registry writes only below the sibling radar root and the required runtime permission probe passes", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "No live-trade use, auto-promotion, or execution points", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Operational and WOW Command isolation", "status": "PASS", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "TRANSPARENCY", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Complete model card states purpose, target, data, leakage controls, limitations, and governance", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Scorecard names a frozen baseline and baseline-relative primary metric", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Model-card and baseline transparency", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 } ], "eligibility": { "operational_promotion_eligible": false, "predictive_profitability_grade_eligible": false, "status": "ELIGIBLE_SYSTEM_QUALITY_ONLY", "system_quality_grade_eligible": true }, "explicit_exclusions": [ "predictive profitability", "tradable edge", "live execution quality", "risk-adjusted returns" ], "max_points": 0, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "profitability_claim": false, "rubric_id": "ALPHA_SYSTEM_QUALITY_NON_PROFITABILITY_V1", "schema_version": "alpha.system_quality_audit.v1", "scope": "SYSTEM_DESIGN_DATA_INTEGRITY_GOVERNANCE_AND_ACCOUNTABILITY", "score": { "earned": 91.0, "grade": "A-", "maximum": 100.0, "normalized_10": 9.1 }, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "theses": [ { "active_alert_ids": [ "later_fed_pipeline_tightening", "weight_offsets_head_decline", "trade_cushions_domestic_availability", "processing_margin_pressure" ], "confirmation": "Later marketings and slaughter tighten after placement cohorts roll forward while meat cushions fade.", "contradictions": [ "cof_on_feed_head", "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs" ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "cof_placements_head", "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "beef_exports_ytd_cwe" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "current through 18 months", "invalidation": "Placements recover or meat availability remains ample enough to prevent the expected tightening.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "PRIMARY_WORKING_HYPOTHESIS", "state": "TIGHTENING_LATER_WITH_MEAT_CUSHIONS_NOW", "thesis_id": "later_head_tightness_near_meat_cushion", "title": "Later fed-cattle tightness, buffered near-term beef availability" }, { "confirmation": "Weights, imports, dairy-beef supply, or weak exports continue replacing domestic fed-cattle tonnage.", "contradictions": [ "cof_placements_head", "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots" ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "current through 12 months", "invalidation": "Weights normalize and trade cushions reverse before placements recover.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "COMPETING_HYPOTHESIS", "thesis_id": "meat_availability_outlasts_head_shortage", "title": "Beef availability stays adequate longer than cattle head counts imply" }, { "confirmation": "Verified capacity exits or sustained shift reductions tighten the hook-to-cattle balance.", "contradictions": [ "No verified plant closure is inferred from margin data alone." ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "cof_marketings_head", "weekly_fi_slaughter_head" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "3-24 months", "invalidation": "Margins recover and observed capacity remains stable.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "COMPETING_HYPOTHESIS", "thesis_id": "capacity_rationalization_changes_leverage", "title": "Processing-capacity rationalization changes packer and feedyard leverage" } ], "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "validation": { "all_units_typed": true, "decision_effect": "NONE", "failed_reconciliations": [], "futures_pricing_model_active": false, "maximum_execution_points": 0, "missing_core_metrics": [], "missing_inputs": [], "numeric_forecast_policy": "No forward numeric value is emitted until an independently validated model supplies it.", "point_in_time_only": true, "promotion_gate_passed": false, "semantic_vintage_chain_validation": "PASS_WITH_LEGACY_PREFIX", "semantic_vintage_checkpoint_prior_state": "PASS", "semantic_vintage_checkpoint_validation": "PASS", "semantic_vintage_external_anchor_present": false, "semantic_vintage_parse_strict": true, "semantic_vintages": true, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "vintage_record_hash": "620e15e44454474ddcb799cc919dfe8eb83b408d118c5e9d2da5f4ddfc0b34a3", "warnings": [] }, { "balance_sheet": { "as_of": "2026-07-17", "periods": [ { "period": "Current feedlot inventory", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current fed-cattle inventory.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 30, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Cattle on feed", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_on_feed_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "feedlot_inventory", "unit": "head", "value": 11682000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": 2.0 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Incoming placement pipeline", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Incoming fed-cattle pipeline.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 30, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Monthly placements", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_placements_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "incoming_pipeline", "unit": "head", "value": 1704000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -10.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 30, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements under 600 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_less_than_600_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 320000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 30, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 600-699 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_600_699_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 240000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 30, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 700-799 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_700_799_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 400000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 30, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 800-899 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_800_899_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 444000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 30, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 900-999 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_900_999_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 225000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 30, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 1,000+ lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_1000_lbs_and_greater", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 75000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "USDA ERS-derived feeder-cattle reservoir outside feedlots; lower inventory can constrain future placements.", "freshness": { "cadence": "Quarterly USDA ERS feeder supply", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Feeder cattle outside feedlots", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_FEEDER_SUPPLY" ], "stage": "feeder_supply", "unit": "thousand_head", "value": 18776.97, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-04-01", "yoy_pct": 2.2631 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Fed-cattle outflow and meat production", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Fed-cattle outflow toward slaughter.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 30, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Monthly marketings", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_marketings_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "fed_outflow", "unit": "head", "value": 1551000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -12.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Non-marketing feedlot disappearance.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 30, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Other disappearance", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_other_disappearance_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "fed_outflow", "unit": "head", "value": 55000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -11.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Observed weekly cattle head throughput.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-18T21:30:12", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Weekly federally inspected slaughter", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "slaughter", "unit": "head", "value": 529000.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": -7.5175 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Pounds produced per slaughtered animal.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-18T21:30:12", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Average dressed weight", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "yield", "unit": "lb_per_head", "value": 889.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": 2.6559 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Observed weekly beef output combines head throughput and carcass yield.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-18T21:30:12", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Weekly beef production", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "meat_output", "unit": "million_lb", "value": 469.1, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": -5.0789 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Counterfactual pounds effect holding year-ago dressed weight constant.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-18T21:30:12", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Head-count contribution to weekly production change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_head_count_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "production_bridge", "unit": "million_lb", "value": -37.238, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Incremental pounds attributable to the dressed-weight change at current slaughter.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-18T21:30:12", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Dressed-weight contribution to weekly production change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "production_bridge", "unit": "million_lb", "value": 12.167, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": null } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Trade and domestic availability", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Imported beef adds to domestic carcass-weight-equivalent availability.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date beef imports", "metadata": { "ytd_comparable": true, "ytd_through_month": 5 }, "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 2754566570.58, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": 9.9 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Exported beef removes product from domestic availability while reflecting foreign demand.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date beef exports", "metadata": { "ytd_comparable": true, "ytd_through_month": 5 }, "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 978518541.27, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": -17.2 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Imports less exports; this is a product-availability measure, not a fed-cattle-equivalent count.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date net beef imports", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 1776048029.31, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": -1.7342, "economic_read": "Weekly wholesale movement; descriptive context only because its futures validation gate has not passed.", "freshness": { "expected_latest_tuesday": "2026-07-14", "last_refresh_time_ct": "2026-07-16T06:59:29.597871-05:00", "latest_report_date": "2026-07-14", "reason": "Canonical Tuesday afternoon LM_XB403 history is current and complete.", "state": "PASS", "status_error": null, "status_report_date": "2026-07-14", "status_source_fingerprint": "2027cdf8ed4a7c48d5672b274003150a50154cd4402aaba529e4c6a090a53c4d", "status_source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/boxed_beef/boxed_beef_tuesday_history_status.json" }, "label": "Tuesday Choice/Select average weekly change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "tuesday_cutout_average_change_pct", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_BOXED_TUESDAY" ], "stage": "wholesale_demand", "unit": "percent", "value": -1.7342, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-14", "yoy_pct": null } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Capacity, cash, herd, and policy context", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Standardized box-minus-live operating-spread proxy; not company net income and not a futures timing signal.", "freshness": { "business_release_lag": 0, "calendar_age_days": 0, "expected_report_date": "2026-07-17", "holiday_calendar_note": "Weekday-aware; USDA holiday exceptions may produce WATCH until the next release.", "reason": "Latest expected weekday USDA CEI report is present.", "release_cutoff_ct": "15:45", "report_date": "2026-07-17", "state": "PASS", "status": "PASS", "weekend_aware": true }, "label": "USDA CEI gross packer spread", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_CEI" ], "stage": "processing_economics", "unit": "usd_per_cwt_carcass", "value": -3.4054, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current operating status constrains or restores feeder-cattle inflow; duration and price impact are not assumed.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Southern livestock port status", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_APHIS" ], "stage": "biological_policy", "unit": "status", "value": "CLOSED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-16", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current cash transmission and feedyard/packer leverage context.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "pass_max_days": 2, "state": "PASS", "watch_max_days": 5 }, "label": "Blended live cash cattle", "metadata": { "change_vs_last_week_usd_per_cwt": -9.49 }, "metric_id": "blended_live_cash", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_CASH" ], "stage": "cash_transmission", "unit": "usd_per_cwt_live", "value": 236.72, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Replacement intentions inform herd rebuilding capacity; they do not guarantee retained females or calf-crop growth.", "freshness": { "cadence": "Annual USDA ERS herd replacement", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Intended heifer replacements", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "intended_heifer_replacements", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_HERD_REPLACEMENT" ], "stage": "breeding_herd", "unit": "thousand_head", "value": 8618.8, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-01-01", "yoy_pct": 0.361 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" } ], "reconciliations": [ { "actual": 1704000.0, "check_id": "cof_placement_buckets", "expected": 1704000.0, "name": "Placement weight buckets sum to placements", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 1000.0, "unit": "head" }, { "actual": 11682000.0, "check_id": "cof_head_flow", "expected": 11682000.0, "name": "Opening inventory plus placements less outflows equals closing inventory", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 1000.0, "unit": "head" }, { "actual": 469.1, "check_id": "weekly_production_bridge", "expected": 469.12899999999996, "name": "Year-ago production plus head effect plus weight effect reconciles to current production", "passed": true, "residual": -0.029, "tolerance": 2.3455000000000004, "unit": "million_lb" }, { "actual": 1776048029.31, "check_id": "net_trade_identity", "expected": 1776048029.31, "name": "Imports less exports equals net imports", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 0.01, "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent" } ], "status": "RECONCILED", "summary": { "beef_supply_change_pct": -5.0789, "dressed_weight_yoy_pct": 2.6559, "exports_ytd_change_pct": -17.2, "imports_ytd_change_pct": 9.9, "observation_count": 24, "reconciliation_count": 4, "reconciliation_pass_count": 4, "slaughter_yoy_pct": -7.5175, "source_count": 9, "source_ledger_row_count": 9, "status": "RECONCILED", "weight_offset_of_head_decline_pct": 32.67 }, "unit_policy": "No cattle-head-to-beef-pound conversion is made without an exposed observed weight or typed derivation." }, "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "change_alerts": [ { "alert_id": "later_fed_pipeline_tightening", "counter_evidence": "Current cattle on feed are +2.0% YoY.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "TIGHTENING_LATER", "horizon": "3-18 months", "invalidation": "Placements and feeder availability normalize, or the livestock-border constraint is formally removed.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "WATCH", "summary": "The later fed-cattle pipeline is tightening, but this is not a futures signal.", "triggers": [ { "label": "Placements -10.0% YoY", "metric_id": "cof_placements_head" }, { "label": "Southern livestock ports closed", "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports" } ] }, { "alert_id": "weight_offsets_head_decline", "counter_evidence": "Reported weekly beef production remains -5.1% YoY.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "MEAT_CUSHION", "horizon": "current to 3 months", "invalidation": "Dressed weights stop offsetting lower head throughput.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "ACTIVE", "summary": "Heavier carcasses are replacing part of the beef tonnage lost to lower slaughter.", "triggers": [ { "label": "Slaughter -7.5% YoY", "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head" }, { "label": "Dressed weight +2.7% YoY", "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs" } ] }, { "alert_id": "trade_cushions_domestic_availability", "counter_evidence": "Product mix and imported lean are not fully interchangeable with Choice fed-beef cuts.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "DOMESTIC_AVAILABILITY_CUSHION", "horizon": "current to 6 months", "invalidation": "Imports reverse lower and exports recover enough to remove the net availability cushion.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "ACTIVE", "summary": "Trade flows are cushioning domestic beef availability despite tighter cattle head counts.", "triggers": [ { "label": "YTD imports +9.9%", "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe" }, { "label": "YTD exports -17.2%", "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe" } ] }, { "alert_id": "processing_margin_pressure", "counter_evidence": "The CEI proxy is not company net income and plant-level economics vary.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "CAPACITY_RATIONALIZATION_RISK", "horizon": "current to 6 months", "invalidation": "Gross spreads recover persistently without a capacity reduction.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "WATCH", "summary": "Negative standardized packer spread and changing cash leverage keep capacity rationalization risk active.", "triggers": [ { "label": "CEI spread -3.41/cwt", "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass" }, { "label": "Cash weekly change -9.49/cwt", "metric_id": "blended_live_cash" } ] } ], "composer_contract": { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "composer_version": "alpha.structural_radar.composer.v2.0.0", "decision_effect": "NONE", "max_points": 0, "mode": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "conditional_contract_estimates": { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "contract_estimates": [ { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 245.4, 250.825 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 248.425, "contract_role": "near", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-06-19T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d1", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": 0.374873, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-22" }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 246.75, "predicted_response_pct": 0.676151, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-08", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -0.548147, 1.653802 ], "symbol": "LEQ6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 242.6, 254.025 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 248.65, "contract_role": "near", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-06-25T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d5", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": -0.273556, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-26" }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 246.75, "predicted_response_pct": 0.765928, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-08", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.683544, 2.951848 ], "symbol": "LEQ6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 240.2, 264.075 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 249.55, "contract_role": "near", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-07-16T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d20", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "status": "OPEN_OR_NOT_YET_OBSERVABLE", "target_date": null }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 246.75, "predicted_response_pct": 1.131717, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-08", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -2.650467, 7.024054 ], "symbol": "LEQ6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 242.55, 269.175 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 251.75, "contract_role": "near", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-08-13T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d40", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "status": "OPEN_OR_NOT_YET_OBSERVABLE", "target_date": null }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 246.75, "predicted_response_pct": 2.027405, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-08", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.702378, 9.086627 ], "symbol": "LEQ6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 239.2, 243.675 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 241.825, "contract_role": "mid", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": 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"label": "D20", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d40", "label": "D40", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 } ], "by_horizon": [ { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d1", "label": "D1", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d5", "label": "D5", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d20", "label": "D20", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d40", "label": "D40", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 } ], "calibration": [], "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "directional_accuracy": null, "forward_resolved_count": 0, "forward_resolved_forecast_count": 0, "forward_test_status": "OPEN_BOOK_NO_FORWARD_RESOLUTIONS", "interval_coverage": null, "mae": null, "mae_skill_vs_baseline": null, "matured_data_pending_count": 0, "mean_bias": null, "open_forecast_count": 0, "performance_status": "UNPROVEN", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "profitability_claim": false, "resolved_forecast_count": 0, "rmse": null, "schema_version": "alpha.structural_forecast_scorecard.v1", "skill_vs_baseline": null, "status": "NO_RESOLVED_FORWARD_FORECASTS", "unique_resolved_release_revision_count": 0, "unique_resolved_report_release_count": 0, "validation_mode": "IMMUTABLE_GENUINELY_FORWARD_OOS" }, "frozen_forecasts": [], "futures_implications": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESES", "generated_at_ct": "2026-07-18T16:50:19.851236-05:00", "headline": { "confidence": "HIGH", "dominant_stage": "placements_vs_meat_availability", "horizon": "current through 18 months", "state": "TIGHTENING_LATER_WITH_MEAT_CUSHIONS_NOW", "text": "The later fed-cattle pipeline is tightening while heavier carcasses and trade flows cushion beef availability now.", "what_changed": "No semantic structural change since the prior frozen vintage." }, "history": { "changed_metric_ids": [], "previous_fingerprint": "c97408ca78849651cd9cecf30f4bd5e56d3890f0ae1e596d45157c5c5759b0f0", "semantic_changed": true, "vintage_count": 17, "vintage_recorded": true }, "live_trade_status": "DISABLED", "max_points": 0, "mode": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "model_card": { "baseline": "Expanding historical mean inside V2 walk-forward diagnostics; zero-change baseline in the immutable forward registry.", "calibration_policy": "No calibrated claim until at least 36 independent genuinely forward report releases and at least 10 unique releases per claimed horizon; correlated role-by-horizon cells and same-report revisions do not count as independent releases. Current status remains NOT_CALIBRATED.", "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "data_sources": [ "USDA NASS COF as-released event rows", "Databento Live Cattle fixed-contract daily bars" ], "evaluation_metrics": [ "MAE", "baseline-relative MAE skill", "directional accuracy", "prediction correlation", "80% interval coverage" ], "fairness_scope": "Not applicable to people; monitor contract-month and market-regime coverage instead.", "feature_families": [ "USDA COF year-over-year release values", "activity-month seasonality" ], "features": [ "on_feed_yoy_delta_pp", "placements_yoy_delta_pp", "marketings_yoy_delta_pp", "activity_month_season_sin", "activity_month_season_cos" ], "governance": { "auto_promotion_path": false, "decision_effect": "NONE", "max_points": 0, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "horizon_definitions": { "d1": "1 actual later fixed-contract session(s)", "d20": "20 actual later fixed-contract session(s)", "d40": "40 actual later fixed-contract session(s)", "d5": "5 actual later fixed-contract session(s)" }, "horizons": [ "d1", "d5", "d20", "d40" ], "intended_uses": [ "research", "hypothesis tracking", "forward accountability", "contract-window comparison" ], "known_limitations": [ "No contemporaneous consensus-surprise feature", "Conditional report response is not all-factor intrinsic value", "Weekday target scheduling is conservative and is reconciled to actual fixed-contract sessions at resolution", "No demonstrated forward predictive edge yet", "No transaction costs, slippage, liquidity, or executable strategy economics" ], "leakage_controls": [ "As-released report values only", "Latest event excluded from training", "Training labels must complete before prediction", "Forward registry rejects horizons already mature at first issuance" ], "lifecycle_status": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "model_name": "Structural Futures V2 fixed-contract COF response", "model_type": "Expanding-window ridge regression with fixed-contract event responses", "model_version": "cof-fixed-contract-ridge-v2.1.0", "monitoring": { "baseline_relative_scorecard": true, "calibration_minimum_unique_report_releases": 36, "immutable_forecast_book": true, "open_outcomes_retained": true }, "owner": "Alpha Structural Radar research boundary", "prediction_population": "Highest-volume unexpired Live Cattle fixed contract and the next two listed expiries on the release date.", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "prohibited_uses": [ "WOW Command input", "official decision input", "live trading", "position sizing", "intrinsic fair-value claim" ], "promotion_criteria": [ "At least 36 independent genuinely forward report releases", "At least 10 unique report releases per claimed horizon", "Positive baseline-relative MAE skill with stable directional evidence", "Independent governance review; never automatic promotion" ], "promotion_gate_passed": false, "purpose": "Estimate a conditional fixed-contract price response after a Cattle on Feed release.", "reproducibility": "Each issuance freezes the implementation SHA-256, fitted ridge coefficients/normalization/penalty, exact training-row identity hash, event features, source hashes, and model-spec hash.", "schema_version": "alpha.model_card.structural_futures_v2.v1", "status": "RESEARCH_ONLY_UNVALIDATED", "target": "Nth actual later RTH last-trade close versus same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close before the after-close COF release; these are not official CME settlements.", "target_definition": "Nth actual later RTH last-trade close versus same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close before the after-close COF release; these are not official CME settlements.", "training": { "continuous_or_stitched_prices_used": false, "fixed_contract_only": true, "method": "Ridge regression fit only to fully labeled events available before each prediction timestamp.", "minimum_train_events": 24, "walk_forward_evaluation": true }, "training_cutoff": "Strictly before each prediction release; every included label must also have completed before that release.", "uncertainty": "Residual 10th/90th-percentile response interval where enough walk-forward residuals exist.", "validation_method": "Expanding-window point-in-time walk-forward", "validation_protocol": "Expanding-window, point-in-time walk-forward evaluation against an expanding-mean diagnostic baseline." }, "module": "ALPHA_STRUCTURAL_RADAR_V1", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "previous_vintage_record_hash": "620e15e44454474ddcb799cc919dfe8eb83b408d118c5e9d2da5f4ddfc0b34a3", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "revision_ledger": [ { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_on_feed_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_placements_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_marketings_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_other_disappearance_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_less_than_600_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_600_699_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_700_799_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_800_899_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_900_999_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_1000_lbs_and_greater", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_head_count_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-16" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "blended_live_cash", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "tuesday_cutout_average_change_pct", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-14" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-04-01" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "intended_heifer_replacements", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-01-01" } ], "schema_version": "1.0.0", "semantic_fingerprint": "d1b60760e6905cb188af8eb517c90fe2a2aaff8b91b9aa414948696a4f85f37e", "separation_contract": { "auto_promotion_path": false, "calls_decision_components": false, "official_decision_effect": "NONE", "radar_write_root": "/opt/alpha_structural_radar", "reads_decision_outputs": false, "source_root_read_only": "/opt/alpha_current", "wow_command_effect": "NONE", "write_allowlist": [ "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs/structural_radar_status.json", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs/structural_radar_history.json", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/data/structural_radar/vintages.jsonl", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/state/structural_radar.lock" ], "writes_decision_outputs": false }, "source_ledger": [ { "error": null, "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 30, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-06-18", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "c1ff68ce85fc2b78a91da268a893537297fa9e92d5a0e250b6995cdc417ee278", "source_id": "USDA_NASS_COF", "source_module": "cattle_on_feed", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/cattle_on_feed_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-05", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "e2663ae465a2862d46d7ed5776622bd004139800a305d6f8fe8b26dbdb96e693", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_TRADE", "source_module": "import_exports", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/import_exports_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "business_release_lag": 0, "calendar_age_days": 0, "expected_report_date": "2026-07-17", "holiday_calendar_note": "Weekday-aware; USDA holiday exceptions may produce WATCH until the next release.", "reason": "Latest expected weekday USDA CEI report is present.", "release_cutoff_ct": "15:45", "report_date": "2026-07-17", "state": "PASS", "status": "PASS", "weekend_aware": true }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-17 after 15:30 CT", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "48f96e1012219d4c2366c13b018bc2e9bbbac85b921fa22c380cc7c273af5288", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_CEI", "source_module": "ALPHA_PACKER_ECONOMICS_V1", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/packer_economics_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-16", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "383fb5e8d19ec5ea1fbcb5cb6d1852eba371339538456d344ce796642d08bef9", "source_id": "USDA_APHIS", "source_module": "animal_health", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/animal_health_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "pass_max_days": 2, "state": "PASS", "watch_max_days": 5 }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-17 daily publication", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "527038b31479017a89081a8a37e30d5cd74267e63d3d1c7c334265f067e1ee5c", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_CASH", "source_module": "cash_cattle", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/cash_cattle_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "expected_latest_tuesday": "2026-07-14", "last_refresh_time_ct": "2026-07-16T06:59:29.597871-05:00", "latest_report_date": "2026-07-14", "reason": "Canonical Tuesday afternoon LM_XB403 history is current and complete.", "state": "PASS", "status_error": null, "status_report_date": "2026-07-14", "status_source_fingerprint": "2027cdf8ed4a7c48d5672b274003150a50154cd4402aaba529e4c6a090a53c4d", "status_source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/boxed_beef/boxed_beef_tuesday_history_status.json" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-14", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "4fc7f01ec6b4531a1c3c93384b3608a0938fc9fbbb97046828f45151e95b0563", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_BOXED_TUESDAY", "source_module": "boxed_beef_tuesday_history", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/boxed_beef/boxed_beef_tuesday_history.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-18T21:30:12", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-10", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "4dd0eaf229a73849afa74aee4b8f4a48e99a5947c2df7bede56d89957f737361", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT", "source_module": "weekly_kill_weights", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/weekly_kill_weights.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "cadence": "Quarterly USDA ERS feeder supply", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-04-01", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "32d71256ffb42497325ea439db5ed6a00752be99019c9ab73562950ad87f581b", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_FEEDER_SUPPLY", "source_module": "ers_feeder_supply", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/ers_livestock_domestic_data/livestock-data-machine-readable-files/FeederCattleSuppliesOutsideFeedlots.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "DERIVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "cadence": "Annual USDA ERS herd replacement", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-01-01", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "281e3d55e23156459116f1b342105d36eb78c6d3295597ee52f60c846528960d", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_HERD_REPLACEMENT", "source_module": "ers_heifer_replacements", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/ers_livestock_domestic_data/livestock-data-machine-readable-files/heifersenteringherd.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" } ], "status": "PASS", "structural_futures_v2": { "cohort_timing_bridge": { "assumptions": { "contract_mapping": "Each possible market-ready day maps to the nearest still-unexpired Feb/Apr/Jun/Aug/Oct/Dec Live Cattle contract midpoint. Expiry uses the last weekday as an approximation and does not encode exchange holidays.", "days_on_feed": { "1000_lbs_and_greater": [ 50, 110 ], "600_699_lbs": [ 170, 230 ], "700_799_lbs": [ 140, 200 ], "800_899_lbs": [ 110, 170 ], "900_999_lbs": [ 80, 140 ], "less_than_600_lbs": [ 190, 250 ] }, "exposure_weighting": "Placement day and days-on-feed are modeled as independent discrete uniform assumptions, then convolved. These are scenario weights, not empirical probabilities.", "interpretation": "Head-equivalent exposure is a timing bridge, not deliverable supply, open interest, fair value, or a price forecast.", "placement_date_uncertainty": "Earliest uses activity-month start; latest uses activity-month end." }, "buckets": [ { "bucket_id": "less_than_600_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 209836.1, "delta_head_equivalent": -9836.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 219672.1, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.655738 }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 110163.9, "delta_head_equivalent": -5163.9, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 115327.9, "symbol": "LEG7", "window_day_share": 0.344262 } ], "current_head": 320000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 250, "minimum": 190 }, "delta_head": -15000, "delta_pct": -4.478, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-11-07", "latest": "2027-02-05" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-11-25", "p50": "2026-12-22", "p90": "2027-01-18", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 335000 }, { "bucket_id": "600_699_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 11549.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -1684.3, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 13233.7, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.048123 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 211189.8, "delta_head_equivalent": -30798.5, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 241988.4, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.879958 }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 17260.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -2517.2, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 19777.9, "symbol": "LEG7", "window_day_share": 0.07192 } ], "current_head": 240000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 230, "minimum": 170 }, "delta_head": -35000, "delta_pct": -12.727, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-10-18", "latest": "2027-01-16" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-11-05", "p50": "2026-12-02", "p90": "2026-12-29", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 275000 }, { "bucket_id": "700_799_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 183606.6, "delta_head_equivalent": -22950.8, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 206557.4, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.459016 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 216393.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -27049.2, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 243442.6, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.540984 } ], "current_head": 400000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 200, "minimum": 140 }, "delta_head": -50000, 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"role": "near", "symbol": "LEQ6" }, { "cohort_timing_exposure": { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 706142.8, "delta_head_equivalent": -89816.5, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 795959.3, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEV6" }, "contract_id": "LE-2026-10", "horizons": [ { "conditional_fair_value": 241.825, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 239.2, 243.675 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d1", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": 0.531029, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-22" }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.721589, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -0.374333, 1.488104 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 242.075, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 236.45, 246.775 ], "estimate_status": 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"estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d40", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "predicted_response_pct": 2.053093, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.30899, 8.914597 ], "status": "PASS" } ], "role": "mid", "symbol": "LEV6" }, { "cohort_timing_exposure": { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 677569.5, "delta_head_equivalent": -74194.6, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 751764.1, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEZ6" }, "contract_id": "LE-2026-12", "horizons": [ { "conditional_fair_value": 240.8, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 238.65, 242.325 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d1", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": 0.585468, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-22" }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.697705, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -0.196348, 1.335889 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 241.175, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 235.65, 246.15 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d5", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": -0.230005, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-26" }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.857373, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.450258, 2.941915 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 241.675, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 234.8, 254.525 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d20", "latest_observed_outcome": { 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"curve_twist_model_active": false, "curve_twist_pricing_authority": "NONE", "fair_value_limitation": "Conditional report-response price is not an all-factor intrinsic fair value and cannot be promoted by this module.", "fixed_contract_only": true, "implementation_sha256": "122b355739d8f28522367bcb9b4097a897fa382cc2fbe049c89d448fb81c0d56", "known_limitations": [ "Historical price references are Databento RTH last-trade closes, not official CME settlements.", "Daily source rows do not retain the final bar timestamp; pre-release ordering relies on the scheduled 13:05 CT RTH close preceding the recorded 14:00 CT COF release.", "No licensed analyst-consensus surprise series is available; report features are printed YoY levels, not consensus surprises.", "Role, horizon, and regime heterogeneity remain research limitations; all operational gates stay closed." ], "latest_release_date": "2026-06-18", "model_version": "cof-fixed-contract-ridge-v2.1.0", "models": [ { 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Same-report roles, horizons, and revisions do not inflate the independent-release threshold. The sibling checkpoint is best-effort and no external WORM anchor exists; accountability is partial and predictive profitability is not graded.", "status": "PARTIAL", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "OPERATIONAL_ISOLATION", "earned": 15.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Base radar has no decision or WOW effect", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Registry writes only below the sibling radar root and the required runtime permission probe passes", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "No live-trade use, auto-promotion, or execution points", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Operational and WOW Command isolation", "status": "PASS", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "TRANSPARENCY", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Complete model card states purpose, target, data, leakage controls, limitations, and governance", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Scorecard names a frozen baseline and baseline-relative primary metric", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Model-card and baseline transparency", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 } ], "eligibility": { "operational_promotion_eligible": false, "predictive_profitability_grade_eligible": false, "status": "ELIGIBLE_SYSTEM_QUALITY_ONLY", "system_quality_grade_eligible": true }, "explicit_exclusions": [ "predictive profitability", "tradable edge", "live execution quality", "risk-adjusted returns" ], "max_points": 0, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "profitability_claim": false, "rubric_id": "ALPHA_SYSTEM_QUALITY_NON_PROFITABILITY_V1", "schema_version": "alpha.system_quality_audit.v1", "scope": "SYSTEM_DESIGN_DATA_INTEGRITY_GOVERNANCE_AND_ACCOUNTABILITY", "score": { "earned": 91.0, "grade": "A-", "maximum": 100.0, "normalized_10": 9.1 }, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "theses": [ { "active_alert_ids": [ "later_fed_pipeline_tightening", "weight_offsets_head_decline", "trade_cushions_domestic_availability", "processing_margin_pressure" ], "confirmation": "Later marketings and slaughter tighten after placement cohorts roll forward while meat cushions fade.", "contradictions": [ "cof_on_feed_head", "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs" ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "cof_placements_head", "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "beef_exports_ytd_cwe" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "current through 18 months", "invalidation": "Placements recover or meat availability remains ample enough to prevent the expected tightening.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "PRIMARY_WORKING_HYPOTHESIS", "state": "TIGHTENING_LATER_WITH_MEAT_CUSHIONS_NOW", "thesis_id": "later_head_tightness_near_meat_cushion", "title": "Later fed-cattle tightness, buffered near-term beef availability" }, { "confirmation": "Weights, imports, dairy-beef supply, or weak exports continue replacing domestic fed-cattle tonnage.", "contradictions": [ "cof_placements_head", "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots" ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "current through 12 months", "invalidation": "Weights normalize and trade cushions reverse before placements recover.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "COMPETING_HYPOTHESIS", "thesis_id": "meat_availability_outlasts_head_shortage", "title": "Beef availability stays adequate longer than cattle head counts imply" }, { "confirmation": "Verified capacity exits or sustained shift reductions tighten the hook-to-cattle balance.", "contradictions": [ "No verified plant closure is inferred from margin data alone." ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "cof_marketings_head", "weekly_fi_slaughter_head" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "3-24 months", "invalidation": "Margins recover and observed capacity remains stable.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "COMPETING_HYPOTHESIS", "thesis_id": "capacity_rationalization_changes_leverage", "title": "Processing-capacity rationalization changes packer and feedyard leverage" } ], "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "validation": { "all_units_typed": true, "decision_effect": "NONE", "failed_reconciliations": [], "futures_pricing_model_active": false, "maximum_execution_points": 0, "missing_core_metrics": [], "missing_inputs": [], "numeric_forecast_policy": "No forward numeric value is emitted until an independently validated model supplies it.", "point_in_time_only": true, "promotion_gate_passed": false, "semantic_vintage_chain_validation": "PASS_WITH_LEGACY_PREFIX", "semantic_vintage_checkpoint_prior_state": "PASS", "semantic_vintage_checkpoint_validation": "PASS", "semantic_vintage_external_anchor_present": false, "semantic_vintage_parse_strict": true, "semantic_vintages": true, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "vintage_record_hash": "71ac2553257842f502abb7ca2b3afb86bf5fbf7df37114e7c1992438c6bad417", "warnings": [] }, { "balance_sheet": { "as_of": "2026-07-17", "periods": [ { "period": "Current feedlot inventory", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current fed-cattle inventory.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 30, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Cattle on feed", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_on_feed_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "feedlot_inventory", "unit": "head", "value": 11682000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": 2.0 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Incoming placement pipeline", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Incoming fed-cattle pipeline.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 30, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Monthly placements", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_placements_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "incoming_pipeline", "unit": "head", "value": 1704000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -10.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 30, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements under 600 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_less_than_600_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 320000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 30, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 600-699 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_600_699_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 240000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 30, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 700-799 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_700_799_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 400000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 30, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 800-899 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_800_899_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 444000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 30, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 900-999 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_900_999_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 225000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 30, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 1,000+ lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_1000_lbs_and_greater", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 75000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "USDA ERS-derived feeder-cattle reservoir outside feedlots; lower inventory can constrain future placements.", "freshness": { "cadence": "Quarterly USDA ERS feeder supply", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Feeder cattle outside feedlots", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_FEEDER_SUPPLY" ], "stage": "feeder_supply", "unit": "thousand_head", "value": 18776.97, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-04-01", "yoy_pct": 2.2631 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Fed-cattle outflow and meat production", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Fed-cattle outflow toward slaughter.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 30, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Monthly marketings", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_marketings_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "fed_outflow", "unit": "head", "value": 1551000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -12.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Non-marketing feedlot disappearance.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 30, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Other disappearance", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_other_disappearance_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "fed_outflow", "unit": "head", "value": 55000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -11.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Observed weekly cattle head throughput.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-18T21:30:12", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Weekly federally inspected slaughter", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "slaughter", "unit": "head", "value": 529000.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": -7.5175 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Pounds produced per slaughtered animal.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-18T21:30:12", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Average dressed weight", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "yield", "unit": "lb_per_head", "value": 889.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": 2.6559 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Observed weekly beef output combines head throughput and carcass yield.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-18T21:30:12", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Weekly beef production", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "meat_output", "unit": "million_lb", "value": 469.1, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": -5.0789 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Counterfactual pounds effect holding year-ago dressed weight constant.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-18T21:30:12", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Head-count contribution to weekly production change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_head_count_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "production_bridge", "unit": "million_lb", "value": -37.238, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Incremental pounds attributable to the dressed-weight change at current slaughter.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-18T21:30:12", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Dressed-weight contribution to weekly production change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "production_bridge", "unit": "million_lb", "value": 12.167, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": null } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Trade and domestic availability", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Imported beef adds to domestic carcass-weight-equivalent availability.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date beef imports", "metadata": { "ytd_comparable": true, "ytd_through_month": 5 }, "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 2754566570.58, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": 9.9 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Exported beef removes product from domestic availability while reflecting foreign demand.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date beef exports", "metadata": { "ytd_comparable": true, "ytd_through_month": 5 }, "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 978518541.27, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": -17.2 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Imports less exports; this is a product-availability measure, not a fed-cattle-equivalent count.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date net beef imports", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 1776048029.31, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": -1.7342, "economic_read": "Weekly wholesale movement; descriptive context only because its futures validation gate has not passed.", "freshness": { "expected_latest_tuesday": "2026-07-14", "last_refresh_time_ct": "2026-07-16T06:59:29.597871-05:00", "latest_report_date": "2026-07-14", "reason": "Canonical Tuesday afternoon LM_XB403 history is current and complete.", "state": "PASS", "status_error": null, "status_report_date": "2026-07-14", "status_source_fingerprint": "2027cdf8ed4a7c48d5672b274003150a50154cd4402aaba529e4c6a090a53c4d", "status_source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/boxed_beef/boxed_beef_tuesday_history_status.json" }, "label": "Tuesday Choice/Select average weekly change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "tuesday_cutout_average_change_pct", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_BOXED_TUESDAY" ], "stage": "wholesale_demand", "unit": "percent", "value": -1.7342, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-14", "yoy_pct": null } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Capacity, cash, herd, and policy context", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Standardized box-minus-live operating-spread proxy; not company net income and not a futures timing signal.", "freshness": { "business_release_lag": 0, "calendar_age_days": 0, "expected_report_date": "2026-07-17", "holiday_calendar_note": "Weekday-aware; USDA holiday exceptions may produce WATCH until the next release.", "reason": "Latest expected weekday USDA CEI report is present.", "release_cutoff_ct": "15:45", "report_date": "2026-07-17", "state": "PASS", "status": "PASS", "weekend_aware": true }, "label": "USDA CEI gross packer spread", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_CEI" ], "stage": "processing_economics", "unit": "usd_per_cwt_carcass", "value": -3.4054, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current operating status constrains or restores feeder-cattle inflow; duration and price impact are not assumed.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Southern livestock port status", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_APHIS" ], "stage": "biological_policy", "unit": "status", "value": "CLOSED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-16", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current cash transmission and feedyard/packer leverage context.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "pass_max_days": 2, "state": "PASS", "watch_max_days": 5 }, "label": "Blended live cash cattle", "metadata": { "change_vs_last_week_usd_per_cwt": -9.49 }, "metric_id": "blended_live_cash", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_CASH" ], "stage": "cash_transmission", "unit": "usd_per_cwt_live", "value": 236.72, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Replacement intentions inform herd rebuilding capacity; they do not guarantee retained females or calf-crop growth.", "freshness": { "cadence": "Annual USDA ERS herd replacement", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Intended heifer replacements", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "intended_heifer_replacements", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_HERD_REPLACEMENT" ], "stage": "breeding_herd", "unit": "thousand_head", "value": 8618.8, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-01-01", "yoy_pct": 0.361 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" } ], "reconciliations": [ { "actual": 1704000.0, "check_id": "cof_placement_buckets", "expected": 1704000.0, "name": "Placement weight buckets sum to placements", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 1000.0, "unit": "head" }, { "actual": 11682000.0, "check_id": "cof_head_flow", "expected": 11682000.0, "name": "Opening inventory plus placements less outflows equals closing inventory", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 1000.0, "unit": "head" }, { "actual": 469.1, "check_id": "weekly_production_bridge", "expected": 469.12899999999996, "name": "Year-ago production plus head effect plus weight effect reconciles to current production", "passed": true, "residual": -0.029, "tolerance": 2.3455000000000004, "unit": "million_lb" }, { "actual": 1776048029.31, "check_id": "net_trade_identity", "expected": 1776048029.31, "name": "Imports less exports equals net imports", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 0.01, "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent" } ], "status": "RECONCILED", "summary": { "beef_supply_change_pct": -5.0789, "dressed_weight_yoy_pct": 2.6559, "exports_ytd_change_pct": -17.2, "imports_ytd_change_pct": 9.9, "observation_count": 24, "reconciliation_count": 4, "reconciliation_pass_count": 4, "slaughter_yoy_pct": -7.5175, "source_count": 9, "source_ledger_row_count": 9, "status": "RECONCILED", "weight_offset_of_head_decline_pct": 32.67 }, "unit_policy": "No cattle-head-to-beef-pound conversion is made without an exposed observed weight or typed derivation." }, "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "change_alerts": [ { "alert_id": "later_fed_pipeline_tightening", "counter_evidence": "Current cattle on feed are +2.0% YoY.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "TIGHTENING_LATER", "horizon": "3-18 months", "invalidation": "Placements and feeder availability normalize, or the livestock-border constraint is formally removed.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "WATCH", "summary": "The later fed-cattle pipeline is tightening, but this is not a futures signal.", "triggers": [ { "label": "Placements -10.0% YoY", "metric_id": "cof_placements_head" }, { "label": "Southern livestock ports closed", "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports" } ] }, { "alert_id": "weight_offsets_head_decline", "counter_evidence": "Reported weekly beef production remains -5.1% YoY.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "MEAT_CUSHION", "horizon": "current to 3 months", "invalidation": "Dressed weights stop offsetting lower head throughput.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "ACTIVE", "summary": "Heavier carcasses are replacing part of the beef tonnage lost to lower slaughter.", "triggers": [ { "label": "Slaughter -7.5% YoY", "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head" }, { "label": "Dressed weight +2.7% YoY", "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs" } ] }, { "alert_id": "trade_cushions_domestic_availability", "counter_evidence": "Product mix and imported lean are not fully interchangeable with Choice fed-beef cuts.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "DOMESTIC_AVAILABILITY_CUSHION", "horizon": "current to 6 months", "invalidation": "Imports reverse lower and exports recover enough to remove the net availability cushion.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "ACTIVE", "summary": "Trade flows are cushioning domestic beef availability despite tighter cattle head counts.", "triggers": [ { "label": "YTD imports +9.9%", "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe" }, { "label": "YTD exports -17.2%", "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe" } ] }, { "alert_id": "processing_margin_pressure", "counter_evidence": "The CEI proxy is not company net income and plant-level economics vary.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "CAPACITY_RATIONALIZATION_RISK", "horizon": "current to 6 months", "invalidation": "Gross spreads recover persistently without a capacity reduction.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "WATCH", "summary": "Negative standardized packer spread and changing cash leverage keep capacity rationalization risk active.", "triggers": [ { "label": "CEI spread -3.41/cwt", "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass" }, { "label": "Cash weekly change -9.49/cwt", "metric_id": "blended_live_cash" } ] } ], "composer_contract": { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "composer_version": "alpha.structural_radar.composer.v2.0.0", "decision_effect": "NONE", "max_points": 0, "mode": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "conditional_contract_estimates": { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "contract_estimates": [ { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 245.4, 250.825 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 248.425, 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fixed-contract price response after a Cattle on Feed release.", "reproducibility": "Each issuance freezes the implementation SHA-256, fitted ridge coefficients/normalization/penalty, exact training-row identity hash, event features, source hashes, and model-spec hash.", "schema_version": "alpha.model_card.structural_futures_v2.v1", "status": "RESEARCH_ONLY_UNVALIDATED", "target": "Nth actual later RTH last-trade close versus same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close before the after-close COF release; these are not official CME settlements.", "target_definition": "Nth actual later RTH last-trade close versus same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close before the after-close COF release; these are not official CME settlements.", "training": { "continuous_or_stitched_prices_used": false, "fixed_contract_only": true, "method": "Ridge regression fit only to fully labeled events available before each prediction timestamp.", "minimum_train_events": 24, "walk_forward_evaluation": true }, "training_cutoff": "Strictly before each prediction release; every included label must also have completed before that release.", "uncertainty": "Residual 10th/90th-percentile response interval where enough walk-forward residuals exist.", "validation_method": "Expanding-window point-in-time walk-forward", "validation_protocol": "Expanding-window, point-in-time walk-forward evaluation against an expanding-mean diagnostic baseline." }, "module": "ALPHA_STRUCTURAL_FORECAST_REGISTRY", "outcome_states": { "MATURED_DATA_PENDING": 0, "OPEN": 0, "RESOLVED": 0 }, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "research_only": true, "safety": { "auto_promotion_path": false, "decision_effect": "NONE", "max_points": 0, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "radar_write_root": "/opt/alpha_structural_radar", "runtime_permission_probe": { "decision_probe_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/decision_status.json", "effective_uid": 997, "method": "NON_MUTATING_OS_ACCESS_EFFECTIVE_IDS", "radar_outputs_path": "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs", "required": true, "results": { "decision_output_writable": false, "radar_outputs_writable": true, "source_root_writable": false }, "source_root": "/opt/alpha_current", "status": "PASS" }, "source_root_read_only": "/opt/alpha_current", "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "wow_command_effect": "NONE", "write_allowlist": [ "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/data/structural_forecast_registry/records.jsonl", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs/structural_forecast_registry_status.json", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/state/structural_forecast_registry.lock" ], "writes_only_below_radar_root": true }, "schema_version": "alpha.structural_forecast_registry.v1", "scorecard": { "baseline": { "baseline_id": "ZERO_CHANGE_FIXED_CONTRACT_V1", "definition": "Zero report-response return from the pre-report fixed-contract close.", "frozen_at_issuance": true }, "by_contract_role": {}, "by_horizon": { "d1": { "baseline_mae_response_pct": null, "interval_80_coverage": null, "mae_skill_vs_zero_change_baseline": null, "model_directional_accuracy": null, "model_mae_response_pct": null, "model_mean_error_response_pct": null, "model_rmse_response_pct": null, "n_resolved": 0, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "unique_release_revision_count": 0, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, "d20": { "baseline_mae_response_pct": null, "interval_80_coverage": null, "mae_skill_vs_zero_change_baseline": null, "model_directional_accuracy": null, "model_mae_response_pct": null, "model_mean_error_response_pct": null, "model_rmse_response_pct": null, "n_resolved": 0, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "unique_release_revision_count": 0, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, "d40": { "baseline_mae_response_pct": null, "interval_80_coverage": null, "mae_skill_vs_zero_change_baseline": null, "model_directional_accuracy": null, "model_mae_response_pct": null, "model_mean_error_response_pct": null, "model_rmse_response_pct": null, "n_resolved": 0, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "unique_release_revision_count": 0, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, "d5": { "baseline_mae_response_pct": null, "interval_80_coverage": null, "mae_skill_vs_zero_change_baseline": null, "model_directional_accuracy": null, "model_mae_response_pct": null, "model_mean_error_response_pct": null, "model_rmse_response_pct": null, "n_resolved": 0, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "unique_release_revision_count": 0, "unique_report_release_count": 0 } }, "evaluation_population": "Only forecasts frozen while their target was genuinely open and later resolved from the same fixed contract.", "metric_policy": { "open_forecasts_scored": false, "primary": "MAE response percentage points relative to baseline MAE", "secondary": [ "RMSE", "mean error", "directional accuracy", "80% interval coverage" ] }, "overall": { "baseline_mae_response_pct": null, "interval_80_coverage": null, "mae_skill_vs_zero_change_baseline": null, "model_directional_accuracy": null, "model_mae_response_pct": null, "model_mean_error_response_pct": null, "model_rmse_response_pct": null, "n_resolved": 0, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "unique_release_revision_count": 0, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "profitability_claim": false, "schema_version": "alpha.structural_forecast_scorecard.v1" }, "status": "PASS", "warnings": [] }, "forecast_scorecard": { "baseline": "ZERO_CHANGE_FIXED_CONTRACT_V1", "baseline_name": "ZERO_CHANGE_FIXED_CONTRACT_V1", "breakdowns": [ { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d1", "label": "D1", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d5", "label": "D5", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d20", "label": "D20", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d40", "label": "D40", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 } ], "by_horizon": [ { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d1", "label": "D1", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d5", "label": "D5", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d20", "label": "D20", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d40", "label": "D40", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 } ], "calibration": [], "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "directional_accuracy": null, "forward_resolved_count": 0, "forward_resolved_forecast_count": 0, "forward_test_status": "OPEN_BOOK_NO_FORWARD_RESOLUTIONS", "interval_coverage": null, "mae": null, "mae_skill_vs_baseline": null, "matured_data_pending_count": 0, "mean_bias": null, "open_forecast_count": 0, "performance_status": "UNPROVEN", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "profitability_claim": false, "resolved_forecast_count": 0, "rmse": null, "schema_version": "alpha.structural_forecast_scorecard.v1", "skill_vs_baseline": null, "status": "NO_RESOLVED_FORWARD_FORECASTS", "unique_resolved_release_revision_count": 0, "unique_resolved_report_release_count": 0, "validation_mode": "IMMUTABLE_GENUINELY_FORWARD_OOS" }, "frozen_forecasts": [], "futures_implications": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESES", "generated_at_ct": "2026-07-19T05:50:53.762825-05:00", "headline": { "confidence": "HIGH", "dominant_stage": "placements_vs_meat_availability", "horizon": "current through 18 months", "state": "TIGHTENING_LATER_WITH_MEAT_CUSHIONS_NOW", "text": "The later fed-cattle pipeline is tightening while heavier carcasses and trade flows cushion beef availability now.", "what_changed": "No semantic structural change since the prior frozen vintage." }, "history": { "changed_metric_ids": [], "previous_fingerprint": "d1b60760e6905cb188af8eb517c90fe2a2aaff8b91b9aa414948696a4f85f37e", "semantic_changed": true, "vintage_count": 18, "vintage_recorded": true }, "live_trade_status": "DISABLED", "max_points": 0, "mode": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "model_card": { "baseline": "Expanding historical mean inside V2 walk-forward diagnostics; zero-change baseline in the immutable forward registry.", "calibration_policy": "No calibrated claim until at least 36 independent genuinely forward report releases and at least 10 unique releases per claimed horizon; correlated role-by-horizon cells and same-report revisions do not count as independent releases. Current status remains NOT_CALIBRATED.", "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "data_sources": [ "USDA NASS COF as-released event rows", "Databento Live Cattle fixed-contract daily bars" ], "evaluation_metrics": [ "MAE", "baseline-relative MAE skill", "directional accuracy", "prediction correlation", "80% interval coverage" ], "fairness_scope": "Not applicable to people; monitor contract-month and market-regime coverage instead.", "feature_families": [ "USDA COF year-over-year release values", "activity-month seasonality" ], "features": [ "on_feed_yoy_delta_pp", "placements_yoy_delta_pp", "marketings_yoy_delta_pp", "activity_month_season_sin", "activity_month_season_cos" ], "governance": { "auto_promotion_path": false, "decision_effect": "NONE", "max_points": 0, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "horizon_definitions": { "d1": "1 actual later fixed-contract session(s)", "d20": "20 actual later fixed-contract session(s)", "d40": "40 actual later fixed-contract session(s)", "d5": "5 actual later fixed-contract session(s)" }, "horizons": [ "d1", "d5", "d20", "d40" ], "intended_uses": [ "research", "hypothesis tracking", "forward accountability", "contract-window comparison" ], "known_limitations": [ "No contemporaneous consensus-surprise feature", "Conditional report response is not all-factor intrinsic value", "Weekday target scheduling is conservative and is reconciled to actual fixed-contract sessions at resolution", "No demonstrated forward predictive edge yet", "No transaction costs, slippage, liquidity, or executable strategy economics" ], "leakage_controls": [ "As-released report values only", "Latest event excluded from training", "Training labels must complete before prediction", "Forward registry rejects horizons already mature at first issuance" ], "lifecycle_status": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "model_name": "Structural Futures V2 fixed-contract COF response", "model_type": "Expanding-window ridge regression with fixed-contract event responses", "model_version": "cof-fixed-contract-ridge-v2.1.0", "monitoring": { "baseline_relative_scorecard": true, "calibration_minimum_unique_report_releases": 36, "immutable_forecast_book": true, "open_outcomes_retained": true }, "owner": "Alpha Structural Radar research boundary", "prediction_population": "Highest-volume unexpired Live Cattle fixed contract and the next two listed expiries on the release date.", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "prohibited_uses": [ "WOW Command input", "official decision input", "live trading", "position sizing", "intrinsic fair-value claim" ], "promotion_criteria": [ "At least 36 independent genuinely forward report releases", "At least 10 unique report releases per claimed horizon", "Positive baseline-relative MAE skill with stable directional evidence", "Independent governance review; never automatic promotion" ], "promotion_gate_passed": false, "purpose": "Estimate a conditional fixed-contract price response after a Cattle on Feed release.", "reproducibility": "Each issuance freezes the implementation SHA-256, fitted ridge coefficients/normalization/penalty, exact training-row identity hash, event features, source hashes, and model-spec hash.", "schema_version": "alpha.model_card.structural_futures_v2.v1", "status": "RESEARCH_ONLY_UNVALIDATED", "target": "Nth actual later RTH last-trade close versus same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close before the after-close COF release; these are not official CME settlements.", "target_definition": "Nth actual later RTH last-trade close versus same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close before the after-close COF release; these are not official CME settlements.", "training": { "continuous_or_stitched_prices_used": false, "fixed_contract_only": true, "method": "Ridge regression fit only to fully labeled events available before each prediction timestamp.", "minimum_train_events": 24, "walk_forward_evaluation": true }, "training_cutoff": "Strictly before each prediction release; every included label must also have completed before that release.", "uncertainty": "Residual 10th/90th-percentile response interval where enough walk-forward residuals exist.", "validation_method": "Expanding-window point-in-time walk-forward", "validation_protocol": "Expanding-window, point-in-time walk-forward evaluation against an expanding-mean diagnostic baseline." }, "module": "ALPHA_STRUCTURAL_RADAR_V1", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "previous_vintage_record_hash": "71ac2553257842f502abb7ca2b3afb86bf5fbf7df37114e7c1992438c6bad417", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "revision_ledger": [ { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_on_feed_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_placements_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_marketings_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_other_disappearance_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_less_than_600_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_600_699_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_700_799_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_800_899_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_900_999_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_1000_lbs_and_greater", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_head_count_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-16" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "blended_live_cash", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "tuesday_cutout_average_change_pct", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-14" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-04-01" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "intended_heifer_replacements", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-01-01" } ], "schema_version": "1.0.0", "semantic_fingerprint": "7ae45f86acb1b9749ae3f5723c7d15d77f6e9db9deb738dba69441bca3c758d8", "separation_contract": { "auto_promotion_path": false, "calls_decision_components": false, "official_decision_effect": "NONE", "radar_write_root": "/opt/alpha_structural_radar", "reads_decision_outputs": false, "source_root_read_only": "/opt/alpha_current", "wow_command_effect": "NONE", "write_allowlist": [ "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs/structural_radar_status.json", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs/structural_radar_history.json", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/data/structural_radar/vintages.jsonl", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/state/structural_radar.lock" ], "writes_decision_outputs": false }, "source_ledger": [ { "error": null, "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 30, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-06-18", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "c1ff68ce85fc2b78a91da268a893537297fa9e92d5a0e250b6995cdc417ee278", "source_id": "USDA_NASS_COF", "source_module": "cattle_on_feed", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/cattle_on_feed_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-05", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "e2663ae465a2862d46d7ed5776622bd004139800a305d6f8fe8b26dbdb96e693", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_TRADE", "source_module": "import_exports", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/import_exports_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "business_release_lag": 0, "calendar_age_days": 0, "expected_report_date": "2026-07-17", "holiday_calendar_note": "Weekday-aware; USDA holiday exceptions may produce WATCH until the next release.", "reason": "Latest expected weekday USDA CEI report is present.", "release_cutoff_ct": "15:45", "report_date": "2026-07-17", "state": "PASS", "status": "PASS", "weekend_aware": true }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-17 after 15:30 CT", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "48f96e1012219d4c2366c13b018bc2e9bbbac85b921fa22c380cc7c273af5288", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_CEI", "source_module": "ALPHA_PACKER_ECONOMICS_V1", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/packer_economics_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-16", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "383fb5e8d19ec5ea1fbcb5cb6d1852eba371339538456d344ce796642d08bef9", "source_id": "USDA_APHIS", "source_module": "animal_health", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/animal_health_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "pass_max_days": 2, "state": "PASS", "watch_max_days": 5 }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-17 daily publication", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "527038b31479017a89081a8a37e30d5cd74267e63d3d1c7c334265f067e1ee5c", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_CASH", "source_module": "cash_cattle", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/cash_cattle_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "expected_latest_tuesday": "2026-07-14", "last_refresh_time_ct": "2026-07-16T06:59:29.597871-05:00", "latest_report_date": "2026-07-14", "reason": "Canonical Tuesday afternoon LM_XB403 history is current and complete.", "state": "PASS", "status_error": null, "status_report_date": "2026-07-14", "status_source_fingerprint": "2027cdf8ed4a7c48d5672b274003150a50154cd4402aaba529e4c6a090a53c4d", "status_source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/boxed_beef/boxed_beef_tuesday_history_status.json" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-14", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "4fc7f01ec6b4531a1c3c93384b3608a0938fc9fbbb97046828f45151e95b0563", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_BOXED_TUESDAY", "source_module": "boxed_beef_tuesday_history", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/boxed_beef/boxed_beef_tuesday_history.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-18T21:30:12", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-10", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "4dd0eaf229a73849afa74aee4b8f4a48e99a5947c2df7bede56d89957f737361", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT", "source_module": "weekly_kill_weights", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/weekly_kill_weights.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "cadence": "Quarterly USDA ERS feeder supply", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-04-01", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "32d71256ffb42497325ea439db5ed6a00752be99019c9ab73562950ad87f581b", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_FEEDER_SUPPLY", "source_module": "ers_feeder_supply", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/ers_livestock_domestic_data/livestock-data-machine-readable-files/FeederCattleSuppliesOutsideFeedlots.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "DERIVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "cadence": "Annual USDA ERS herd replacement", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-01-01", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "281e3d55e23156459116f1b342105d36eb78c6d3295597ee52f60c846528960d", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_HERD_REPLACEMENT", "source_module": "ers_heifer_replacements", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/ers_livestock_domestic_data/livestock-data-machine-readable-files/heifersenteringherd.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" } ], "status": "PASS", "structural_futures_v2": { "cohort_timing_bridge": { "assumptions": { "contract_mapping": "Each possible market-ready day maps to the nearest still-unexpired Feb/Apr/Jun/Aug/Oct/Dec Live Cattle contract midpoint. Expiry uses the last weekday as an approximation and does not encode exchange holidays.", "days_on_feed": { "1000_lbs_and_greater": [ 50, 110 ], "600_699_lbs": [ 170, 230 ], "700_799_lbs": [ 140, 200 ], "800_899_lbs": [ 110, 170 ], "900_999_lbs": [ 80, 140 ], "less_than_600_lbs": [ 190, 250 ] }, "exposure_weighting": "Placement day and days-on-feed are modeled as independent discrete uniform assumptions, then convolved. These are scenario weights, not empirical probabilities.", "interpretation": "Head-equivalent exposure is a timing bridge, not deliverable supply, open interest, fair value, or a price forecast.", "placement_date_uncertainty": "Earliest uses activity-month start; latest uses activity-month end." }, "buckets": [ { "bucket_id": "less_than_600_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 209836.1, "delta_head_equivalent": -9836.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 219672.1, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.655738 }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 110163.9, "delta_head_equivalent": -5163.9, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 115327.9, "symbol": "LEG7", "window_day_share": 0.344262 } ], "current_head": 320000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 250, "minimum": 190 }, "delta_head": -15000, "delta_pct": -4.478, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-11-07", "latest": "2027-02-05" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-11-25", "p50": "2026-12-22", "p90": "2027-01-18", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 335000 }, { "bucket_id": "600_699_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 11549.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -1684.3, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 13233.7, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.048123 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 211189.8, "delta_head_equivalent": -30798.5, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 241988.4, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.879958 }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 17260.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -2517.2, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 19777.9, "symbol": "LEG7", "window_day_share": 0.07192 } ], "current_head": 240000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 230, "minimum": 170 }, "delta_head": -35000, "delta_pct": -12.727, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-10-18", "latest": "2027-01-16" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-11-05", "p50": "2026-12-02", "p90": "2026-12-29", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 275000 }, { "bucket_id": "700_799_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 183606.6, "delta_head_equivalent": -22950.8, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 206557.4, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.459016 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 216393.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -27049.2, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 243442.6, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.540984 } ], "current_head": 400000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 200, "minimum": 140 }, "delta_head": -50000, "delta_pct": -11.111, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-09-18", "latest": "2026-12-17" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-10-06", "p50": "2026-11-02", "p90": "2026-11-29", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 450000 }, { "bucket_id": "800_899_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 21366.5, "delta_head_equivalent": -3464.8, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 24831.3, "symbol": "LEQ6", "window_day_share": 0.048123 }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 382483.3, "delta_head_equivalent": -62024.3, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 444507.7, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.861449 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 40150.2, "delta_head_equivalent": -6510.8, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 46661.0, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.090428 } ], "current_head": 444000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 170, "minimum": 110 }, "delta_head": -72000, "delta_pct": -13.953, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-08-19", "latest": "2026-11-17" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-09-06", "p50": "2026-10-03", "p90": "2026-10-30", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 516000 }, { "bucket_id": "900_999_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 103278.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -2295.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 105573.8, "symbol": "LEQ6", "window_day_share": 0.459016 }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 121721.3, "delta_head_equivalent": -2704.9, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 124426.2, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.540984 } ], "current_head": 225000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 140, "minimum": 80 }, "delta_head": -5000, "delta_pct": -2.174, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-07-20", "latest": "2026-10-18" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-08-07", "p50": "2026-09-03", "p90": "2026-09-30", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 230000 }, { "bucket_id": "1000_lbs_and_greater", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-06", "current_head_equivalent": 2617.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -174.5, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 2792.2, "symbol": "LEM6", "window_day_share": 0.034902 }, { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 65600.2, "delta_head_equivalent": -4373.3, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 69973.6, "symbol": "LEQ6", "window_day_share": 0.874669 }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 6782.1, "delta_head_equivalent": -452.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 7234.3, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.090428 } ], "current_head": 75000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 110, "minimum": 50 }, "delta_head": -5000, "delta_pct": -6.25, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-06-20", "latest": "2026-09-18" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-07-08", "p50": "2026-08-04", "p90": "2026-08-31", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 80000 } ], "comparison": "SAME_ACTIVITY_MONTH_AS_RELEASED_YEAR_OVER_YEAR", "contracts": [ { "contract_month": "2026-06", "current_head_equivalent": 2617.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -174.5, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 2792.2, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEM6" }, { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 190245.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -10133.3, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 200378.6, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEQ6" }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 706142.8, "delta_head_equivalent": -89816.5, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 795959.3, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEV6" }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 677569.5, "delta_head_equivalent": -74194.6, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 751764.1, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEZ6" }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 127424.6, "delta_head_equivalent": -7681.1, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 135105.8, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEG7" } ], "latest_activity_month": "2026-05-01", "latest_release_date": "2026-06-18", "prior_year_activity_month": "2025-05-01", "prior_year_release_date": "2025-06-20", "reconciliations": [ { "actual": 1704000.0, "check_id": "latest_bucket_sum_to_placements", "expected": 1704000.0, "passed": true, "residual_head": 0.0, "tolerance_head": 1000.0 }, { "actual": 1886000.0, "check_id": "prior_bucket_sum_to_placements", "expected": 1886000.0, "passed": true, "residual_head": 0.0, "tolerance_head": 1000.0 }, { "actual": -182000.0, "check_id": "contract_exposure_delta_to_bucket_delta", "expected": -182000.0, "passed": true, "residual_head": 0.0, "tolerance_head": 1.0 } ], "status": "PASS" }, "contract_response_models": { "continuous_or_stitched_prices_used": false, "contract_estimates": [ { "cohort_timing_exposure": { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 190245.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -10133.3, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 200378.6, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEQ6" }, "contract_id": "LE-2026-08", "horizons": [ { "conditional_fair_value": 248.425, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 245.4, 250.825 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d1", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": 0.374873, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-22" }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.676151, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -0.548147, 1.653802 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 248.65, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 242.6, 254.025 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d5", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": -0.273556, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-26" }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.765928, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.683544, 2.951848 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 249.55, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 240.2, 264.075 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d20", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "predicted_response_pct": 1.131717, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -2.650467, 7.024054 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 251.75, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 242.55, 269.175 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d40", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "predicted_response_pct": 2.027405, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.702378, 9.086627 ], "status": "PASS" } ], "role": "near", "symbol": "LEQ6" }, { "cohort_timing_exposure": { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 706142.8, "delta_head_equivalent": -89816.5, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 795959.3, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEV6" }, "contract_id": "LE-2026-10", "horizons": [ { "conditional_fair_value": 241.825, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 239.2, 243.675 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d1", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": 0.531029, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-22" }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.721589, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -0.374333, 1.488104 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 242.075, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 236.45, 246.775 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d5", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": -0.322782, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-26" }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.81965, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.519832, 2.784357 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 242.9, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 233.525, 255.925 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d20", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "predicted_response_pct": 1.16672, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -2.742707, 6.594272 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 245.025, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 236.95, 261.5 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d40", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "predicted_response_pct": 2.053093, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.30899, 8.914597 ], "status": "PASS" } ], "role": "mid", "symbol": "LEV6" }, { "cohort_timing_exposure": { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 677569.5, "delta_head_equivalent": -74194.6, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 751764.1, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEZ6" }, "contract_id": "LE-2026-12", "horizons": [ { "conditional_fair_value": 240.8, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 238.65, 242.325 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d1", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": 0.585468, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-22" }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.697705, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -0.196348, 1.335889 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 241.175, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 235.65, 246.15 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d5", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": -0.230005, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-26" }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.857373, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.450258, 2.941915 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 241.675, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 234.8, 254.525 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d20", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "predicted_response_pct": 1.06329, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.805714, 6.442563 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 243.8, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 232.9, 258.5 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d40", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "predicted_response_pct": 1.958683, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -2.607012, 8.100815 ], "status": "PASS" } ], "role": "deferred", "symbol": "LEZ6" } ], "contract_selection": "Highest-volume unexpired named fixed contract is near; the next two canonical year-month expiries are mid and deferred.", 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"Capped at 12/15: the daily panel lacks a retained final-bar timestamp and historical original/correction completeness is not guaranteed.", "status": "PARTIAL", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "RECONCILIATION", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "All base observations are typed and reconciliations recompute within explicit units/tolerances", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Placement cohort-to-contract reconciliations recompute within head tolerances", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Accounting and reconciliation", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 }, { "dimension_id": "CONTRACT_HORIZONS", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Fixed contracts are used without continuous stitching", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "A unique, fully estimated near/mid/deferred D1/D5/D20/D40 fixed-contract grid is present", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Contract and horizon specificity", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 }, { "dimension_id": "MODEL_GOVERNANCE", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Operational promotion is false", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 }, { "criterion": "Predictive edge remains explicitly unproven", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 }, { "criterion": "Calibration remains explicitly incomplete", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 }, { "criterion": "Pricing authority and execution points are zero", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 } ], "label": "Model governance without promotion leakage", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 }, { "dimension_id": "FORWARD_ACCOUNTABILITY", "earned": 9.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Append-only registry freeze hashes validate", "max_points": 2.0, "passed": true, "points": 2.0 }, { "criterion": "Prior sibling checkpoint detects single-file tail loss", "max_points": 1.0, "passed": true, "points": 1.0 }, { "criterion": "An external protected/WORM ledger anchor exists", "max_points": 1.0, "passed": false, "points": 0 }, { "criterion": "Forecast IDs are deterministic and issuance is deduplicated", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Open and matured-unresolved outcomes remain explicit and unscored", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "At least 36 independent forward report releases and 10 unique releases per claimed horizon are resolved", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": false, "points": 0 } ], "label": "Immutable forward forecast accountability", "limitation": "0 correlated forecast cells across 0 independent report releases are resolved. Same-report roles, horizons, and revisions do not inflate the independent-release threshold. The sibling checkpoint is best-effort and no external WORM anchor exists; accountability is partial and predictive profitability is not graded.", "status": "PARTIAL", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "OPERATIONAL_ISOLATION", "earned": 15.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Base radar has no decision or WOW effect", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Registry writes only below the sibling radar root and the required runtime permission probe passes", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "No live-trade use, auto-promotion, or execution points", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Operational and WOW Command isolation", "status": "PASS", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "TRANSPARENCY", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Complete model card states purpose, target, data, leakage controls, limitations, and governance", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Scorecard names a frozen baseline and baseline-relative primary metric", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Model-card and baseline transparency", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 } ], "eligibility": { "operational_promotion_eligible": false, "predictive_profitability_grade_eligible": false, "status": "ELIGIBLE_SYSTEM_QUALITY_ONLY", "system_quality_grade_eligible": true }, "explicit_exclusions": [ "predictive profitability", "tradable edge", "live execution quality", "risk-adjusted returns" ], "max_points": 0, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "profitability_claim": false, "rubric_id": "ALPHA_SYSTEM_QUALITY_NON_PROFITABILITY_V1", "schema_version": "alpha.system_quality_audit.v1", "scope": "SYSTEM_DESIGN_DATA_INTEGRITY_GOVERNANCE_AND_ACCOUNTABILITY", "score": { "earned": 91.0, "grade": "A-", "maximum": 100.0, "normalized_10": 9.1 }, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "theses": [ { "active_alert_ids": [ "later_fed_pipeline_tightening", "weight_offsets_head_decline", "trade_cushions_domestic_availability", "processing_margin_pressure" ], "confirmation": "Later marketings and slaughter tighten after placement cohorts roll forward while meat cushions fade.", "contradictions": [ "cof_on_feed_head", "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs" ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "cof_placements_head", "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "beef_exports_ytd_cwe" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "current through 18 months", "invalidation": "Placements recover or meat availability remains ample enough to prevent the expected tightening.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "PRIMARY_WORKING_HYPOTHESIS", "state": "TIGHTENING_LATER_WITH_MEAT_CUSHIONS_NOW", "thesis_id": "later_head_tightness_near_meat_cushion", "title": "Later fed-cattle tightness, buffered near-term beef availability" }, { "confirmation": "Weights, imports, dairy-beef supply, or weak exports continue replacing domestic fed-cattle tonnage.", "contradictions": [ "cof_placements_head", "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots" ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "current through 12 months", "invalidation": "Weights normalize and trade cushions reverse before placements recover.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "COMPETING_HYPOTHESIS", "thesis_id": "meat_availability_outlasts_head_shortage", "title": "Beef availability stays adequate longer than cattle head counts imply" }, { "confirmation": "Verified capacity exits or sustained shift reductions tighten the hook-to-cattle balance.", "contradictions": [ "No verified plant closure is inferred from margin data alone." ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "cof_marketings_head", "weekly_fi_slaughter_head" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "3-24 months", "invalidation": "Margins recover and observed capacity remains stable.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "COMPETING_HYPOTHESIS", "thesis_id": "capacity_rationalization_changes_leverage", "title": "Processing-capacity rationalization changes packer and feedyard leverage" } ], "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "validation": { "all_units_typed": true, "decision_effect": "NONE", "failed_reconciliations": [], "futures_pricing_model_active": false, "maximum_execution_points": 0, "missing_core_metrics": [], "missing_inputs": [], "numeric_forecast_policy": "No forward numeric value is emitted until an independently validated model supplies it.", "point_in_time_only": true, "promotion_gate_passed": false, "semantic_vintage_chain_validation": "PASS_WITH_LEGACY_PREFIX", "semantic_vintage_checkpoint_prior_state": "PASS", "semantic_vintage_checkpoint_validation": "PASS", "semantic_vintage_external_anchor_present": false, "semantic_vintage_parse_strict": true, "semantic_vintages": true, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "vintage_record_hash": "765bb183f5f937b550dc140ebf8cedb199f618b6c03fe745899e88424490a1d9", "warnings": [] }, { "balance_sheet": { "as_of": "2026-07-17", "periods": [ { "period": "Current feedlot inventory", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current fed-cattle inventory.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 30, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Cattle on feed", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_on_feed_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "feedlot_inventory", "unit": "head", "value": 11682000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": 2.0 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Incoming placement pipeline", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Incoming fed-cattle pipeline.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 30, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Monthly placements", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_placements_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "incoming_pipeline", "unit": "head", "value": 1704000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -10.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 30, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements under 600 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_less_than_600_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 320000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 30, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 600-699 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_600_699_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 240000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 30, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 700-799 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_700_799_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 400000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 30, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 800-899 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_800_899_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 444000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 30, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 900-999 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_900_999_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 225000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 30, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 1,000+ lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_1000_lbs_and_greater", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 75000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "USDA ERS-derived feeder-cattle reservoir outside feedlots; lower inventory can constrain future placements.", "freshness": { "cadence": "Quarterly USDA ERS feeder supply", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Feeder cattle outside feedlots", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_FEEDER_SUPPLY" ], "stage": "feeder_supply", "unit": "thousand_head", "value": 18776.97, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-04-01", "yoy_pct": 2.2631 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Fed-cattle outflow and meat production", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Fed-cattle outflow toward slaughter.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 30, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Monthly marketings", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_marketings_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "fed_outflow", "unit": "head", "value": 1551000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -12.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Non-marketing feedlot disappearance.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 30, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Other disappearance", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_other_disappearance_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "fed_outflow", "unit": "head", "value": 55000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -11.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Observed weekly cattle head throughput.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-19T21:30:26", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Weekly federally inspected slaughter", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "slaughter", "unit": "head", "value": 529000.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": -7.5175 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Pounds produced per slaughtered animal.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-19T21:30:26", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Average dressed weight", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "yield", "unit": "lb_per_head", "value": 889.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": 2.6559 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Observed weekly beef output combines head throughput and carcass yield.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-19T21:30:26", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Weekly beef production", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "meat_output", "unit": "million_lb", "value": 469.1, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": -5.0789 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Counterfactual pounds effect holding year-ago dressed weight constant.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-19T21:30:26", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Head-count contribution to weekly production change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_head_count_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "production_bridge", "unit": "million_lb", "value": -37.238, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Incremental pounds attributable to the dressed-weight change at current slaughter.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-19T21:30:26", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Dressed-weight contribution to weekly production change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "production_bridge", "unit": "million_lb", "value": 12.167, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": null } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Trade and domestic availability", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Imported beef adds to domestic carcass-weight-equivalent availability.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date beef imports", "metadata": { "ytd_comparable": true, "ytd_through_month": 5 }, "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 2754566570.58, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": 9.9 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Exported beef removes product from domestic availability while reflecting foreign demand.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date beef exports", "metadata": { "ytd_comparable": true, "ytd_through_month": 5 }, "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 978518541.27, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": -17.2 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Imports less exports; this is a product-availability measure, not a fed-cattle-equivalent count.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date net beef imports", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 1776048029.31, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": -1.7342, "economic_read": "Weekly wholesale movement; descriptive context only because its futures validation gate has not passed.", "freshness": { "expected_latest_tuesday": "2026-07-14", "last_refresh_time_ct": "2026-07-16T06:59:29.597871-05:00", "latest_report_date": "2026-07-14", "reason": "Canonical Tuesday afternoon LM_XB403 history is current and complete.", "state": "PASS", "status_error": null, "status_report_date": "2026-07-14", "status_source_fingerprint": "2027cdf8ed4a7c48d5672b274003150a50154cd4402aaba529e4c6a090a53c4d", "status_source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/boxed_beef/boxed_beef_tuesday_history_status.json" }, "label": "Tuesday Choice/Select average weekly change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "tuesday_cutout_average_change_pct", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_BOXED_TUESDAY" ], "stage": "wholesale_demand", "unit": "percent", "value": -1.7342, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-14", "yoy_pct": null } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Capacity, cash, herd, and policy context", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Standardized box-minus-live operating-spread proxy; not company net income and not a futures timing signal.", "freshness": { "business_release_lag": 0, "calendar_age_days": 0, "expected_report_date": "2026-07-17", "holiday_calendar_note": "Weekday-aware; USDA holiday exceptions may produce WATCH until the next release.", "reason": "Latest expected weekday USDA CEI report is present.", "release_cutoff_ct": "15:45", "report_date": "2026-07-17", "state": "PASS", "status": "PASS", "weekend_aware": true }, "label": "USDA CEI gross packer spread", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_CEI" ], "stage": "processing_economics", "unit": "usd_per_cwt_carcass", "value": -3.4054, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current operating status constrains or restores feeder-cattle inflow; duration and price impact are not assumed.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Southern livestock port status", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_APHIS" ], "stage": "biological_policy", "unit": "status", "value": "CLOSED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-16", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current cash transmission and feedyard/packer leverage context.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "pass_max_days": 2, "state": "PASS", "watch_max_days": 5 }, "label": "Blended live cash cattle", "metadata": { "change_vs_last_week_usd_per_cwt": -9.49 }, "metric_id": "blended_live_cash", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_CASH" ], "stage": "cash_transmission", "unit": "usd_per_cwt_live", "value": 236.72, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Replacement intentions inform herd rebuilding capacity; they do not guarantee retained females or calf-crop growth.", "freshness": { "cadence": "Annual USDA ERS herd replacement", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Intended heifer replacements", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "intended_heifer_replacements", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_HERD_REPLACEMENT" ], "stage": "breeding_herd", "unit": "thousand_head", "value": 8618.8, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-01-01", "yoy_pct": 0.361 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" } ], "reconciliations": [ { "actual": 1704000.0, "check_id": "cof_placement_buckets", "expected": 1704000.0, "name": "Placement weight buckets sum to placements", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 1000.0, "unit": "head" }, { "actual": 11682000.0, "check_id": "cof_head_flow", "expected": 11682000.0, "name": "Opening inventory plus placements less outflows equals closing inventory", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 1000.0, "unit": "head" }, { "actual": 469.1, "check_id": "weekly_production_bridge", "expected": 469.12899999999996, "name": "Year-ago production plus head effect plus weight effect reconciles to current production", "passed": true, "residual": -0.029, "tolerance": 2.3455000000000004, "unit": "million_lb" }, { "actual": 1776048029.31, "check_id": "net_trade_identity", "expected": 1776048029.31, "name": "Imports less exports equals net imports", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 0.01, "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent" } ], "status": "RECONCILED", "summary": { "beef_supply_change_pct": -5.0789, "dressed_weight_yoy_pct": 2.6559, "exports_ytd_change_pct": -17.2, "imports_ytd_change_pct": 9.9, "observation_count": 24, "reconciliation_count": 4, "reconciliation_pass_count": 4, "slaughter_yoy_pct": -7.5175, "source_count": 9, "source_ledger_row_count": 9, "status": "RECONCILED", "weight_offset_of_head_decline_pct": 32.67 }, "unit_policy": "No cattle-head-to-beef-pound conversion is made without an exposed observed weight or typed derivation." }, "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "change_alerts": [ { "alert_id": "later_fed_pipeline_tightening", "counter_evidence": "Current cattle on feed are +2.0% YoY.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "TIGHTENING_LATER", "horizon": "3-18 months", "invalidation": "Placements and feeder availability normalize, or the livestock-border constraint is formally removed.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "WATCH", "summary": "The later fed-cattle pipeline is tightening, but this is not a futures signal.", "triggers": [ { "label": "Placements -10.0% YoY", "metric_id": "cof_placements_head" }, { "label": "Southern livestock ports closed", "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports" } ] }, { "alert_id": "weight_offsets_head_decline", "counter_evidence": "Reported weekly beef production remains -5.1% YoY.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "MEAT_CUSHION", "horizon": "current to 3 months", "invalidation": "Dressed weights stop offsetting lower head throughput.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "ACTIVE", "summary": "Heavier carcasses are replacing part of the beef tonnage lost to lower slaughter.", "triggers": [ { "label": "Slaughter -7.5% YoY", "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head" }, { "label": "Dressed weight +2.7% YoY", "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs" } ] }, { "alert_id": "trade_cushions_domestic_availability", "counter_evidence": "Product mix and imported lean are not fully interchangeable with Choice fed-beef cuts.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "DOMESTIC_AVAILABILITY_CUSHION", "horizon": "current to 6 months", "invalidation": "Imports reverse lower and exports recover enough to remove the net availability cushion.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "ACTIVE", "summary": "Trade flows are cushioning domestic beef availability despite tighter cattle head counts.", "triggers": [ { "label": "YTD imports +9.9%", "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe" }, { "label": "YTD exports -17.2%", "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe" } ] }, { "alert_id": "processing_margin_pressure", "counter_evidence": "The CEI proxy is not company net income and plant-level economics vary.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "CAPACITY_RATIONALIZATION_RISK", "horizon": "current to 6 months", "invalidation": "Gross spreads recover persistently without a capacity reduction.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "WATCH", "summary": "Negative standardized packer spread and changing cash leverage keep capacity rationalization risk active.", "triggers": [ { "label": "CEI spread -3.41/cwt", "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass" }, { "label": "Cash weekly change -9.49/cwt", "metric_id": "blended_live_cash" } ] } ], "composer_contract": { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "composer_version": "alpha.structural_radar.composer.v2.0.0", "decision_effect": "NONE", "max_points": 0, "mode": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "conditional_contract_estimates": { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "contract_estimates": [ { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 245.4, 250.825 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 248.425, 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"decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-06-25T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d5", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": -0.273556, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-26" }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 246.75, "predicted_response_pct": 0.765928, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-08", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.683544, 2.951848 ], "symbol": "LEQ6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 240.2, 264.075 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 249.55, "contract_role": "near", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-07-16T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d20", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "status": "OPEN_OR_NOT_YET_OBSERVABLE", "target_date": null }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 246.75, "predicted_response_pct": 1.131717, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-08", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -2.650467, 7.024054 ], "symbol": "LEQ6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 242.55, 269.175 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 251.75, "contract_role": "near", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": 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"CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-07-16T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d20", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "status": "OPEN_OR_NOT_YET_OBSERVABLE", "target_date": null }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 239.125, "predicted_response_pct": 1.06329, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-12", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.805714, 6.442563 ], "symbol": "LEZ6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 232.9, 258.5 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 243.8, "contract_role": "deferred", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-08-13T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d40", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "status": "OPEN_OR_NOT_YET_OBSERVABLE", "target_date": null }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 239.125, "predicted_response_pct": 1.958683, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-12", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -2.607012, 8.100815 ], "symbol": "LEZ6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" } ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "definition": "Conditional fixed-contract COF report-response estimates, never intrinsic fair value or trade instructions.", "max_points": 0, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "schema_version": "alpha.conditional_contract_estimates.v1", "status": "RESEARCH_ONLY", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "decision_use": "CONTEXT", "errors": [], "extension_fields": [ "calibration_status", "composer_contract", "conditional_contract_estimates", "fair_values", "forecast_book", "forecast_registry", "forecast_scorecard", "frozen_forecasts", "model_card", "operational_promotion_gate_passed", "predictive_edge_status", "pricing_authority", "structural_futures_v2", "system_quality_audit" ], "fair_values": [ { "as_of_price": 246.75, "contract": "LEQ6", "decision_effect": "NONE", "edge_pct": 0.676151, "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_return_pct": 0.676151, "fair_value": 248.425, "horizon": "d1", "interval": [ 245.4, 250.825 ], "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "market": "LIVE_CATTLE", "model_version": "cof-fixed-contract-ridge-v2.1.0", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": 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unique releases per claimed horizon; correlated role-by-horizon cells and same-report revisions do not count as independent releases. 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"training_cutoff": "Strictly before each prediction release; every included label must also have completed before that release.", "uncertainty": "Residual 10th/90th-percentile response interval where enough walk-forward residuals exist.", "validation_method": "Expanding-window point-in-time walk-forward", "validation_protocol": "Expanding-window, point-in-time walk-forward evaluation against an expanding-mean diagnostic baseline." }, "module": "ALPHA_STRUCTURAL_RADAR_V1", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "previous_vintage_record_hash": "765bb183f5f937b550dc140ebf8cedb199f618b6c03fe745899e88424490a1d9", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "revision_ledger": [ { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_on_feed_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_placements_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_marketings_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_other_disappearance_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_less_than_600_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_600_699_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_700_799_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_800_899_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_900_999_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_1000_lbs_and_greater", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_head_count_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-16" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "blended_live_cash", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "tuesday_cutout_average_change_pct", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-14" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-04-01" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "intended_heifer_replacements", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-01-01" } ], "schema_version": "1.0.0", "semantic_fingerprint": "ac2f29fcd228e40b879b949c8361dd8b1883a3a6ac34d03537fdb8b1e40c06e7", "separation_contract": { "auto_promotion_path": false, "calls_decision_components": false, "official_decision_effect": "NONE", "radar_write_root": "/opt/alpha_structural_radar", "reads_decision_outputs": false, "source_root_read_only": "/opt/alpha_current", "wow_command_effect": "NONE", "write_allowlist": [ "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs/structural_radar_status.json", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs/structural_radar_history.json", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/data/structural_radar/vintages.jsonl", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/state/structural_radar.lock" ], "writes_decision_outputs": false }, "source_ledger": [ { "error": null, "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 30, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-06-18", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "c1ff68ce85fc2b78a91da268a893537297fa9e92d5a0e250b6995cdc417ee278", "source_id": "USDA_NASS_COF", "source_module": "cattle_on_feed", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/cattle_on_feed_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-05", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "78e7473a0c31dd4bfab49776ac1b8b5007dbef3a7245414049e0cd51d91f12d2", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_TRADE", "source_module": "import_exports", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/import_exports_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "business_release_lag": 0, "calendar_age_days": 0, "expected_report_date": "2026-07-17", "holiday_calendar_note": "Weekday-aware; USDA holiday exceptions may produce WATCH until the next release.", "reason": "Latest expected weekday USDA CEI report is present.", "release_cutoff_ct": "15:45", "report_date": "2026-07-17", "state": "PASS", "status": "PASS", "weekend_aware": true }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-17 after 15:30 CT", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "48f96e1012219d4c2366c13b018bc2e9bbbac85b921fa22c380cc7c273af5288", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_CEI", "source_module": "ALPHA_PACKER_ECONOMICS_V1", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/packer_economics_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-16", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "383fb5e8d19ec5ea1fbcb5cb6d1852eba371339538456d344ce796642d08bef9", "source_id": "USDA_APHIS", "source_module": "animal_health", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/animal_health_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "pass_max_days": 2, "state": "PASS", "watch_max_days": 5 }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-17 daily publication", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "527038b31479017a89081a8a37e30d5cd74267e63d3d1c7c334265f067e1ee5c", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_CASH", "source_module": "cash_cattle", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/cash_cattle_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "expected_latest_tuesday": "2026-07-14", "last_refresh_time_ct": "2026-07-16T06:59:29.597871-05:00", "latest_report_date": "2026-07-14", "reason": "Canonical Tuesday afternoon LM_XB403 history is current and complete.", "state": "PASS", "status_error": null, "status_report_date": "2026-07-14", "status_source_fingerprint": "2027cdf8ed4a7c48d5672b274003150a50154cd4402aaba529e4c6a090a53c4d", "status_source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/boxed_beef/boxed_beef_tuesday_history_status.json" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-14", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "4fc7f01ec6b4531a1c3c93384b3608a0938fc9fbbb97046828f45151e95b0563", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_BOXED_TUESDAY", "source_module": "boxed_beef_tuesday_history", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/boxed_beef/boxed_beef_tuesday_history.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-19T21:30:26", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-10", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "925d7282ec8e620d71fbb55b99b4726df151a41ac5ac3545c105546f635ca09b", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT", "source_module": "weekly_kill_weights", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/weekly_kill_weights.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "cadence": "Quarterly USDA ERS feeder supply", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-04-01", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "32d71256ffb42497325ea439db5ed6a00752be99019c9ab73562950ad87f581b", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_FEEDER_SUPPLY", "source_module": "ers_feeder_supply", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/ers_livestock_domestic_data/livestock-data-machine-readable-files/FeederCattleSuppliesOutsideFeedlots.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "DERIVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "cadence": "Annual USDA ERS herd replacement", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-01-01", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "281e3d55e23156459116f1b342105d36eb78c6d3295597ee52f60c846528960d", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_HERD_REPLACEMENT", "source_module": "ers_heifer_replacements", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/ers_livestock_domestic_data/livestock-data-machine-readable-files/heifersenteringherd.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" } ], "status": "PASS", "structural_futures_v2": { "cohort_timing_bridge": { "assumptions": { "contract_mapping": "Each possible market-ready day maps to the nearest still-unexpired Feb/Apr/Jun/Aug/Oct/Dec Live Cattle contract midpoint. Expiry uses the last weekday as an approximation and does not encode exchange holidays.", "days_on_feed": { "1000_lbs_and_greater": [ 50, 110 ], "600_699_lbs": [ 170, 230 ], "700_799_lbs": [ 140, 200 ], "800_899_lbs": [ 110, 170 ], "900_999_lbs": [ 80, 140 ], "less_than_600_lbs": [ 190, 250 ] }, "exposure_weighting": "Placement day and days-on-feed are modeled as independent discrete uniform assumptions, then convolved. These are scenario weights, not empirical probabilities.", "interpretation": "Head-equivalent exposure is a timing bridge, not deliverable supply, open interest, fair value, or a price forecast.", "placement_date_uncertainty": "Earliest uses activity-month start; latest uses activity-month end." }, "buckets": [ { "bucket_id": "less_than_600_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 209836.1, "delta_head_equivalent": -9836.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 219672.1, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.655738 }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 110163.9, "delta_head_equivalent": -5163.9, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 115327.9, "symbol": "LEG7", "window_day_share": 0.344262 } ], "current_head": 320000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 250, "minimum": 190 }, "delta_head": -15000, "delta_pct": -4.478, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-11-07", "latest": "2027-02-05" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-11-25", "p50": "2026-12-22", "p90": "2027-01-18", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 335000 }, { "bucket_id": "600_699_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 11549.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -1684.3, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 13233.7, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.048123 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 211189.8, "delta_head_equivalent": -30798.5, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 241988.4, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.879958 }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 17260.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -2517.2, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 19777.9, "symbol": "LEG7", "window_day_share": 0.07192 } ], "current_head": 240000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 230, "minimum": 170 }, "delta_head": -35000, "delta_pct": -12.727, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-10-18", "latest": "2027-01-16" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-11-05", "p50": "2026-12-02", "p90": "2026-12-29", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 275000 }, { "bucket_id": "700_799_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 183606.6, "delta_head_equivalent": -22950.8, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 206557.4, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.459016 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 216393.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -27049.2, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 243442.6, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.540984 } ], "current_head": 400000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 200, "minimum": 140 }, "delta_head": -50000, "delta_pct": -11.111, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-09-18", "latest": "2026-12-17" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-10-06", "p50": "2026-11-02", "p90": "2026-11-29", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 450000 }, { "bucket_id": "800_899_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 21366.5, "delta_head_equivalent": -3464.8, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 24831.3, "symbol": "LEQ6", "window_day_share": 0.048123 }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 382483.3, "delta_head_equivalent": -62024.3, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 444507.7, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.861449 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 40150.2, "delta_head_equivalent": -6510.8, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 46661.0, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.090428 } ], "current_head": 444000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 170, "minimum": 110 }, "delta_head": -72000, "delta_pct": -13.953, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-08-19", "latest": "2026-11-17" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-09-06", "p50": "2026-10-03", "p90": "2026-10-30", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 516000 }, { "bucket_id": "900_999_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 103278.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -2295.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 105573.8, "symbol": "LEQ6", "window_day_share": 0.459016 }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 121721.3, "delta_head_equivalent": -2704.9, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 124426.2, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.540984 } ], "current_head": 225000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 140, "minimum": 80 }, "delta_head": -5000, "delta_pct": -2.174, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-07-20", "latest": "2026-10-18" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-08-07", "p50": "2026-09-03", "p90": "2026-09-30", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 230000 }, { "bucket_id": "1000_lbs_and_greater", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-06", "current_head_equivalent": 2617.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -174.5, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 2792.2, "symbol": "LEM6", "window_day_share": 0.034902 }, { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 65600.2, "delta_head_equivalent": -4373.3, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 69973.6, "symbol": "LEQ6", "window_day_share": 0.874669 }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 6782.1, "delta_head_equivalent": -452.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 7234.3, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.090428 } ], "current_head": 75000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 110, "minimum": 50 }, "delta_head": -5000, "delta_pct": -6.25, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-06-20", "latest": "2026-09-18" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-07-08", "p50": "2026-08-04", "p90": "2026-08-31", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 80000 } ], "comparison": "SAME_ACTIVITY_MONTH_AS_RELEASED_YEAR_OVER_YEAR", "contracts": [ { "contract_month": "2026-06", "current_head_equivalent": 2617.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -174.5, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 2792.2, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEM6" }, { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 190245.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -10133.3, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 200378.6, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEQ6" }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 706142.8, "delta_head_equivalent": -89816.5, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 795959.3, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEV6" }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 677569.5, "delta_head_equivalent": -74194.6, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 751764.1, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEZ6" }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 127424.6, "delta_head_equivalent": -7681.1, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 135105.8, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEG7" } ], "latest_activity_month": "2026-05-01", "latest_release_date": "2026-06-18", "prior_year_activity_month": "2025-05-01", "prior_year_release_date": 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"UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "fair_value_definition": "Same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close multiplied by the estimated report-response return; not an official settlement, intrinsic value, or promoted forecast.", "feature_names": [ "on_feed_yoy_delta_pp", "placements_yoy_delta_pp", "marketings_yoy_delta_pp", "season_sin", "season_cos" ], "fitted_artifact": { "artifact_sha256": "7e4c7d90dacb4a2a4364f1162a2ceb59b0d98f66ea9d9cb620e960f0c21dcf5c", "coefficients_intercept_first": [ 1.637046266685, -0.887110174762, -0.195111224833, -0.317762161399, 0.50808229049, -0.293302016189 ], "feature_means": [ -0.32, -1.693333333333, -1.506666666667, 0.044880338717, 0.031547005384 ], "feature_names": [ "on_feed_yoy_delta_pp", "placements_yoy_delta_pp", "marketings_yoy_delta_pp", "season_sin", "season_cos" ], "feature_scales": [ 2.104978226332, 8.176345285164, 8.314442588385, 0.700941572836, 0.711105796009 ], "ridge_penalty": 4.0, "training_row_count": 75, "training_row_identity_sha256": "e66dad219c983fde988e04a569aa3adc0fc81d5e37247d97f8854df408c32f52" }, "gate_checks": { "beats_zero_return_baseline": true, "directional_accuracy_at_least_52pct": true, "interval_80_coverage_65_to_90pct": false, "mae_skill_at_least_5pct": false, "n_oos_at_least_36": true, "prediction_correlation_at_least_0_10": false }, "horizon": "d40", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "max_training_label_date": "2026-06-15", "min_train_events": 24, "model_version": "cof-fixed-contract-ridge-v2.1.0", "n_train": 75, "pre_report_close": 239.125, "predicted_response_pct": 1.958683, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-12", "prediction_release_date": "2026-06-18", "prediction_symbol": "LEZ6", "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "research_only": true, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -2.607012, 8.100815 ], "role": "deferred", "status": "PASS", "strictly_prior_training": true, "training_max_release_date": "2026-04-17", "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "walk_forward": { "baseline_mae_return_pct": 3.632719, "directional_accuracy": 0.64, "interval_80_coverage": 0.6, "interval_coverage_n": 35, "mae_return_pct": 3.544136, "mae_skill_vs_expanding_mean": 0.024385, "mae_skill_vs_zero_return": 0.107422, "n_oos": 50, "prediction_correlation": -0.02018, "zero_return_baseline_mae_pct": 3.970674 }, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" } ], "multiplicity_policy": "Twelve role-by-horizon candidates are exposed together; no familywise or FDR gate has passed, so operational promotion is prohibited.", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "statistical_gate_pass_count": 0, "target_definition": "Nth actual later RTH last-trade close versus same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close before the after-close COF release; these are not official CME settlements." }, "decision_effect": "NONE", "errors": [], "headline": "Placement cohorts are mapped to contract windows; price estimates remain conditional and research-only.", "live": false, "max_points": 0, "mode": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "module": "ALPHA_STRUCTURAL_FUTURES_V2", "point_in_time_events": { "as_of_cutoff_ct": "2026-07-19T16:50:21.234053-05:00", "consensus_surprise_available": false, "consensus_surprise_used": false, "event_count": 114, "feature_policy": "Only values printed in the as-released row plus activity-month season terms are features.", "latest_event": { "activity_month": "2026-05-01", "availability_rule": "Feature values become available only at the recorded USDA release timestamp.", "event_id": "795942", "observations": [ { "known_at_ct": "2026-06-18T14:00:00-05:00", "observation_id": "on_feed_yoy_delta_pp", "unit": "percentage_point", "value": 2.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED_RELEASE" }, { "known_at_ct": "2026-06-18T14:00:00-05:00", "observation_id": "placements_yoy_delta_pp", "unit": "percentage_point", "value": -10.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED_RELEASE" }, { "known_at_ct": "2026-06-18T14:00:00-05:00", "observation_id": "marketings_yoy_delta_pp", "unit": "percentage_point", "value": -12.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED_RELEASE" }, { "known_at_ct": "2026-06-18T14:00:00-05:00", "observation_id": "season_sin", "unit": "cyclical_component", "value": 0.5, "value_kind": "DERIVED_FROM_ACTIVITY_MONTH" }, { "known_at_ct": "2026-06-18T14:00:00-05:00", "observation_id": "season_cos", "unit": "cyclical_component", "value": -0.866025, "value_kind": "DERIVED_FROM_ACTIVITY_MONTH" } ], "provenance": { "source_sha256": "da477404f359a36b9d2b412f0dfdeaa4f3b05596c898c0655184124228fa9fbf", "source_url": "https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795942/cofd0626.txt" }, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "release_revision_id": "795942@2026-06-18T14:00:00-05:00", "release_timestamp_ct": "2026-06-18T14:00:00-05:00", "release_timestamp_kind": "RECORDED_SOURCE_TIMESTAMP", "research_only": true, "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false } }, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "research_only": true, "schema_version": "alpha.structural_futures.v2", "semantic_fingerprint": "273ba11c5475b039f997ab20e90fed993ad9b01005f1e410014a4c5f4acf05f9", "source_ledger": [ { "path": "/opt/alpha_current/data/cattle_on_feed/report_events.csv", "read_only": true, "rows": 114, "sha256": "8c9fa84f4a2ce005f1a3e636a6a01f0051000c3b69de93c11e649ab753fa166b", "source_id": "USDA_NASS_COF_AS_RELEASED" }, { "path": "/opt/alpha_current/data/cattle_on_feed/le_fixed_ohlcv_1d.parquet", "read_only": true, "rows": 14279, "sha256": "7a4e8af3320c10732a4296eeecce2ec0bd2db6b67719b69705ae3ff0a377a30b", "source_id": "DATABENTO_LE_FIXED_CONTRACT_DAILY" } ], "status": "PASS", "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "validation": { "all_training_labels_completed_before_prediction": true, "cohort_reconciliations_passed": true, "corrections_after_response_anchor_excluded": true, "data_status": { "event_rows": 114, "first_event_date": "2017-01-27", "fixed_contract_rows": 14279, "latest_event_date": "2026-06-18", "latest_event_price_reference_available": true, "price_first_date": "2020-01-02", "price_last_date": "2026-07-17", "response_panel_rows": 231 }, "events_filtered_to_as_of_cutoff": true, "historical_correction_policy": "Recorded same-date revisions are cutoff-aware. Later-date corrections are excluded from the report-response panel so they cannot be paired with an already-observed original-report return path; displaced originals are not guaranteed recoverable for every historical USDA correction.", "historical_original_corrections_complete": false, "latest_event_excluded_from_training": true, "model_gate_is_not_operational_gate": true, "numeric_forecast_policy": "No estimate is emitted with insufficient prior history; no model estimate affects WOW or decisions.", "point_in_time_release_timestamps": true, "price_reference_is_official_settlement": false, "price_reference_timestamp_retained": false, "price_rows_filtered_to_as_of_cutoff": true, "price_rows_unique_by_date_contract": true }, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "system_quality_audit": { "accountability_status": "PARTIAL", "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "critical_gates": { "decision_isolation_gate": true, "immutable_registry_gate": true, "no_operational_promotion_gate": true, "no_predictive_skill_claim_gate": true, "overall_health_gate": true, "point_in_time_gate": true, "reconciliation_gate": true, "runtime_permission_probe_gate": true, "source_alignment_and_price_freshness_gate": true, "wow_isolation_gate": true }, "critical_gates_passed": true, "decision_effect": "NONE", "dimensions": [ { "dimension_id": "SOURCE_PROVENANCE", "earned": 15.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "At least eight unique structural sources have explicit non-stale freshness, observed-at values, and fingerprints", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Every base ledger row is identified, fingerprinted, and read-only", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Both required V2 sources are nonempty, read-only, and SHA-256 fingerprinted", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Base COF and V2 latest releases align, and the fixed-contract panel is current", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Base structural vintages parse strictly, checkpoint tail loss, and chain new semantic records", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 } ], "label": "Source provenance and semantic integrity", "status": "PASS", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "POINT_IN_TIME", "earned": 12.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Events and prices are filtered to the as-of cutoff", "max_points": 4.0, "passed": true, "points": 4.0 }, { "criterion": "Training labels complete before prediction and latest event is excluded", "max_points": 4.0, "passed": true, "points": 4.0 }, { "criterion": "As-released event timestamps are retained", "max_points": 4.0, "passed": true, "points": 4.0 }, { "criterion": "Daily price reference retains a final-bar timestamp", "max_points": 1.5, "passed": false, "points": 0 }, { "criterion": "Historical original/correction pairs are complete", "max_points": 1.5, "passed": false, "points": 0 } ], "label": "Point-in-time and leakage controls", "limitation": "Capped at 12/15: the daily panel lacks a retained final-bar timestamp and historical original/correction completeness is not guaranteed.", "status": "PARTIAL", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "RECONCILIATION", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "All base observations are typed and reconciliations recompute within explicit units/tolerances", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Placement cohort-to-contract reconciliations recompute within head tolerances", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Accounting and reconciliation", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 }, { "dimension_id": "CONTRACT_HORIZONS", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Fixed contracts are used without continuous stitching", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "A unique, fully estimated near/mid/deferred D1/D5/D20/D40 fixed-contract grid is present", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Contract and horizon specificity", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 }, { "dimension_id": "MODEL_GOVERNANCE", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Operational promotion is false", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 }, { "criterion": "Predictive edge remains explicitly unproven", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 }, { "criterion": "Calibration remains explicitly incomplete", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 }, { "criterion": "Pricing authority and execution points are zero", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 } ], "label": "Model governance without promotion leakage", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 }, { "dimension_id": "FORWARD_ACCOUNTABILITY", "earned": 9.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Append-only registry freeze hashes validate", "max_points": 2.0, "passed": true, "points": 2.0 }, { "criterion": "Prior sibling checkpoint detects single-file tail loss", "max_points": 1.0, "passed": true, "points": 1.0 }, { "criterion": "An external protected/WORM ledger anchor exists", "max_points": 1.0, "passed": false, "points": 0 }, { "criterion": "Forecast IDs are deterministic and issuance is deduplicated", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Open and matured-unresolved outcomes remain explicit and unscored", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "At least 36 independent forward report releases and 10 unique releases per claimed horizon are resolved", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": false, "points": 0 } ], "label": "Immutable forward forecast accountability", "limitation": "0 correlated forecast cells across 0 independent report releases are resolved. Same-report roles, horizons, and revisions do not inflate the independent-release threshold. The sibling checkpoint is best-effort and no external WORM anchor exists; accountability is partial and predictive profitability is not graded.", "status": "PARTIAL", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "OPERATIONAL_ISOLATION", "earned": 15.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Base radar has no decision or WOW effect", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Registry writes only below the sibling radar root and the required runtime permission probe passes", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "No live-trade use, auto-promotion, or execution points", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Operational and WOW Command isolation", "status": "PASS", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "TRANSPARENCY", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Complete model card states purpose, target, data, leakage controls, limitations, and governance", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Scorecard names a frozen baseline and baseline-relative primary metric", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Model-card and baseline transparency", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 } ], "eligibility": { "operational_promotion_eligible": false, "predictive_profitability_grade_eligible": false, "status": "ELIGIBLE_SYSTEM_QUALITY_ONLY", "system_quality_grade_eligible": true }, "explicit_exclusions": [ "predictive profitability", "tradable edge", "live execution quality", "risk-adjusted returns" ], "max_points": 0, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "profitability_claim": false, "rubric_id": "ALPHA_SYSTEM_QUALITY_NON_PROFITABILITY_V1", "schema_version": "alpha.system_quality_audit.v1", "scope": "SYSTEM_DESIGN_DATA_INTEGRITY_GOVERNANCE_AND_ACCOUNTABILITY", "score": { "earned": 91.0, "grade": "A-", "maximum": 100.0, "normalized_10": 9.1 }, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "theses": [ { "active_alert_ids": [ "later_fed_pipeline_tightening", "weight_offsets_head_decline", "trade_cushions_domestic_availability", "processing_margin_pressure" ], "confirmation": "Later marketings and slaughter tighten after placement cohorts roll forward while meat cushions fade.", "contradictions": [ "cof_on_feed_head", "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs" ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "cof_placements_head", "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "beef_exports_ytd_cwe" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "current through 18 months", "invalidation": "Placements recover or meat availability remains ample enough to prevent the expected tightening.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "PRIMARY_WORKING_HYPOTHESIS", "state": "TIGHTENING_LATER_WITH_MEAT_CUSHIONS_NOW", "thesis_id": "later_head_tightness_near_meat_cushion", "title": "Later fed-cattle tightness, buffered near-term beef availability" }, { "confirmation": "Weights, imports, dairy-beef supply, or weak exports continue replacing domestic fed-cattle tonnage.", "contradictions": [ "cof_placements_head", "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots" ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "current through 12 months", "invalidation": "Weights normalize and trade cushions reverse before placements recover.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "COMPETING_HYPOTHESIS", "thesis_id": "meat_availability_outlasts_head_shortage", "title": "Beef availability stays adequate longer than cattle head counts imply" }, { "confirmation": "Verified capacity exits or sustained shift reductions tighten the hook-to-cattle balance.", "contradictions": [ "No verified plant closure is inferred from margin data alone." ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "cof_marketings_head", "weekly_fi_slaughter_head" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "3-24 months", "invalidation": "Margins recover and observed capacity remains stable.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "COMPETING_HYPOTHESIS", "thesis_id": "capacity_rationalization_changes_leverage", "title": "Processing-capacity rationalization changes packer and feedyard leverage" } ], "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "validation": { "all_units_typed": true, "decision_effect": "NONE", "failed_reconciliations": [], "futures_pricing_model_active": false, "maximum_execution_points": 0, "missing_core_metrics": [], "missing_inputs": [], "numeric_forecast_policy": "No forward numeric value is emitted until an independently validated model supplies it.", "point_in_time_only": true, "promotion_gate_passed": false, "semantic_vintage_chain_validation": "PASS_WITH_LEGACY_PREFIX", "semantic_vintage_checkpoint_prior_state": "PASS", "semantic_vintage_checkpoint_validation": "PASS", "semantic_vintage_external_anchor_present": false, "semantic_vintage_parse_strict": true, "semantic_vintages": true, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "vintage_record_hash": "d42764104f42b02a9ac4b3e38d5949c869067996b108dcfaf8981dc022faf030", "warnings": [] }, { "balance_sheet": { "as_of": "2026-07-17", "periods": [ { "period": "Current feedlot inventory", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current fed-cattle inventory.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 30, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Cattle on feed", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_on_feed_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "feedlot_inventory", "unit": "head", "value": 11682000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": 2.0 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Incoming placement pipeline", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Incoming fed-cattle pipeline.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 30, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Monthly placements", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_placements_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "incoming_pipeline", "unit": "head", "value": 1704000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -10.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 30, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements under 600 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_less_than_600_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 320000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 30, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 600-699 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_600_699_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 240000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 30, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 700-799 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_700_799_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 400000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 30, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 800-899 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_800_899_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 444000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 30, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 900-999 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_900_999_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 225000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 30, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 1,000+ lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_1000_lbs_and_greater", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 75000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "USDA ERS-derived feeder-cattle reservoir outside feedlots; lower inventory can constrain future placements.", "freshness": { "cadence": "Quarterly USDA ERS feeder supply", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Feeder cattle outside feedlots", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_FEEDER_SUPPLY" ], "stage": "feeder_supply", "unit": "thousand_head", "value": 18776.97, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-04-01", "yoy_pct": 2.2631 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Fed-cattle outflow and meat production", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Fed-cattle outflow toward slaughter.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 30, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Monthly marketings", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_marketings_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "fed_outflow", "unit": "head", "value": 1551000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -12.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Non-marketing feedlot disappearance.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 30, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Other disappearance", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_other_disappearance_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "fed_outflow", "unit": "head", "value": 55000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -11.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Observed weekly cattle head throughput.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-19T21:30:26", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Weekly federally inspected slaughter", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "slaughter", "unit": "head", "value": 529000.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": -7.5175 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Pounds produced per slaughtered animal.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-19T21:30:26", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Average dressed weight", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "yield", "unit": "lb_per_head", "value": 889.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": 2.6559 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Observed weekly beef output combines head throughput and carcass yield.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-19T21:30:26", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Weekly beef production", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "meat_output", "unit": "million_lb", "value": 469.1, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": -5.0789 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Counterfactual pounds effect holding year-ago dressed weight constant.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-19T21:30:26", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Head-count contribution to weekly production change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_head_count_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "production_bridge", "unit": "million_lb", "value": -37.238, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Incremental pounds attributable to the dressed-weight change at current slaughter.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-19T21:30:26", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Dressed-weight contribution to weekly production change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "production_bridge", "unit": "million_lb", "value": 12.167, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10", "yoy_pct": null } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Trade and domestic availability", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Imported beef adds to domestic carcass-weight-equivalent availability.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date beef imports", "metadata": { "ytd_comparable": true, "ytd_through_month": 5 }, "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 2754566570.58, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": 9.9 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Exported beef removes product from domestic availability while reflecting foreign demand.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date beef exports", "metadata": { "ytd_comparable": true, "ytd_through_month": 5 }, "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 978518541.27, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": -17.2 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Imports less exports; this is a product-availability measure, not a fed-cattle-equivalent count.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date net beef imports", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 1776048029.31, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": -1.7342, "economic_read": "Weekly wholesale movement; descriptive context only because its futures validation gate has not passed.", "freshness": { "expected_latest_tuesday": "2026-07-14", "last_refresh_time_ct": "2026-07-16T06:59:29.597871-05:00", "latest_report_date": "2026-07-14", "reason": "Canonical Tuesday afternoon LM_XB403 history is current and complete.", "state": "PASS", "status_error": null, "status_report_date": "2026-07-14", "status_source_fingerprint": "2027cdf8ed4a7c48d5672b274003150a50154cd4402aaba529e4c6a090a53c4d", "status_source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/boxed_beef/boxed_beef_tuesday_history_status.json" }, "label": "Tuesday Choice/Select average weekly change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "tuesday_cutout_average_change_pct", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_BOXED_TUESDAY" ], "stage": "wholesale_demand", "unit": "percent", "value": -1.7342, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-14", "yoy_pct": null } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Capacity, cash, herd, and policy context", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Standardized box-minus-live operating-spread proxy; not company net income and not a futures timing signal.", "freshness": { "business_release_lag": 0, "calendar_age_days": 0, "expected_report_date": "2026-07-17", "holiday_calendar_note": "Weekday-aware; USDA holiday exceptions may produce WATCH until the next release.", "reason": "Latest expected weekday USDA CEI report is present.", "release_cutoff_ct": "15:45", "report_date": "2026-07-17", "state": "PASS", "status": "PASS", "weekend_aware": true }, "label": "USDA CEI gross packer spread", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_CEI" ], "stage": "processing_economics", "unit": "usd_per_cwt_carcass", "value": -3.4054, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current operating status constrains or restores feeder-cattle inflow; duration and price impact are not assumed.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Southern livestock port status", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_APHIS" ], "stage": "biological_policy", "unit": "status", "value": "CLOSED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-16", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current cash transmission and feedyard/packer leverage context.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "pass_max_days": 2, "state": "PASS", "watch_max_days": 5 }, "label": "Blended live cash cattle", "metadata": { "change_vs_last_week_usd_per_cwt": -9.49 }, "metric_id": "blended_live_cash", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_CASH" ], "stage": "cash_transmission", "unit": "usd_per_cwt_live", "value": 236.72, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Replacement intentions inform herd rebuilding capacity; they do not guarantee retained females or calf-crop growth.", "freshness": { "cadence": "Annual USDA ERS herd replacement", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Intended heifer replacements", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "intended_heifer_replacements", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_HERD_REPLACEMENT" ], "stage": "breeding_herd", "unit": "thousand_head", "value": 8618.8, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-01-01", "yoy_pct": 0.361 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" } ], "reconciliations": [ { "actual": 1704000.0, "check_id": "cof_placement_buckets", "expected": 1704000.0, "name": "Placement weight buckets sum to placements", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 1000.0, "unit": "head" }, { "actual": 11682000.0, "check_id": "cof_head_flow", "expected": 11682000.0, "name": "Opening inventory plus placements less outflows equals closing inventory", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 1000.0, "unit": "head" }, { "actual": 469.1, "check_id": "weekly_production_bridge", "expected": 469.12899999999996, "name": "Year-ago production plus head effect plus weight effect reconciles to current production", "passed": true, "residual": -0.029, "tolerance": 2.3455000000000004, "unit": "million_lb" }, { "actual": 1776048029.31, "check_id": "net_trade_identity", "expected": 1776048029.31, "name": "Imports less exports equals net imports", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 0.01, "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent" } ], "status": "RECONCILED", "summary": { "beef_supply_change_pct": -5.0789, "dressed_weight_yoy_pct": 2.6559, "exports_ytd_change_pct": -17.2, "imports_ytd_change_pct": 9.9, "observation_count": 24, "reconciliation_count": 4, "reconciliation_pass_count": 4, "slaughter_yoy_pct": -7.5175, "source_count": 9, "source_ledger_row_count": 9, "status": "RECONCILED", "weight_offset_of_head_decline_pct": 32.67 }, "unit_policy": "No cattle-head-to-beef-pound conversion is made without an exposed observed weight or typed derivation." }, "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "change_alerts": [ { "alert_id": "later_fed_pipeline_tightening", "counter_evidence": "Current cattle on feed are +2.0% YoY.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "TIGHTENING_LATER", "horizon": "3-18 months", "invalidation": "Placements and feeder availability normalize, or the livestock-border constraint is formally removed.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "WATCH", "summary": "The later fed-cattle pipeline is tightening, but this is not a futures signal.", "triggers": [ { "label": "Placements -10.0% YoY", "metric_id": "cof_placements_head" }, { "label": "Southern livestock ports closed", "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports" } ] }, { "alert_id": "weight_offsets_head_decline", "counter_evidence": "Reported weekly beef production remains -5.1% YoY.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "MEAT_CUSHION", "horizon": "current to 3 months", "invalidation": "Dressed weights stop offsetting lower head throughput.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "ACTIVE", "summary": "Heavier carcasses are replacing part of the beef tonnage lost to lower slaughter.", "triggers": [ { "label": "Slaughter -7.5% YoY", "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head" }, { "label": "Dressed weight +2.7% YoY", "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs" } ] }, { "alert_id": "trade_cushions_domestic_availability", "counter_evidence": "Product mix and imported lean are not fully interchangeable with Choice fed-beef cuts.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "DOMESTIC_AVAILABILITY_CUSHION", "horizon": "current to 6 months", "invalidation": "Imports reverse lower and exports recover enough to remove the net availability cushion.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "ACTIVE", "summary": "Trade flows are cushioning domestic beef availability despite tighter cattle head counts.", "triggers": [ { "label": "YTD imports +9.9%", "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe" }, { "label": "YTD exports -17.2%", "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe" } ] }, { "alert_id": "processing_margin_pressure", "counter_evidence": "The CEI proxy is not company net income and plant-level economics vary.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "CAPACITY_RATIONALIZATION_RISK", "horizon": "current to 6 months", "invalidation": "Gross spreads recover persistently without a capacity reduction.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "WATCH", "summary": "Negative standardized packer spread and changing cash leverage keep capacity rationalization risk active.", "triggers": [ { "label": "CEI spread -3.41/cwt", "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass" }, { "label": "Cash weekly change -9.49/cwt", "metric_id": "blended_live_cash" } ] } ], "composer_contract": { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "composer_version": "alpha.structural_radar.composer.v2.0.0", "decision_effect": "NONE", "max_points": 0, "mode": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "conditional_contract_estimates": { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "contract_estimates": [ { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 245.4, 250.825 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 248.425, "contract_role": "near", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-06-19T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d1", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": 0.374873, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-22" }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 246.75, "predicted_response_pct": 0.676151, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-08", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -0.548147, 1.653802 ], "symbol": "LEQ6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 242.6, 254.025 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 248.65, "contract_role": "near", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-06-25T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d5", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": -0.273556, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-26" }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 246.75, "predicted_response_pct": 0.765928, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-08", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.683544, 2.951848 ], "symbol": "LEQ6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 240.2, 264.075 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 249.55, "contract_role": "near", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-07-16T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d20", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "status": "OPEN_OR_NOT_YET_OBSERVABLE", "target_date": null }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 246.75, "predicted_response_pct": 1.131717, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-08", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -2.650467, 7.024054 ], "symbol": "LEQ6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 242.55, 269.175 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 251.75, "contract_role": "near", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-08-13T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d40", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "status": "OPEN_OR_NOT_YET_OBSERVABLE", "target_date": null }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 246.75, "predicted_response_pct": 2.027405, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-08", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.702378, 9.086627 ], "symbol": "LEQ6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 239.2, 243.675 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 241.825, "contract_role": "mid", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": 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"label": "D20", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d40", "label": "D40", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 } ], "by_horizon": [ { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d1", "label": "D1", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d5", "label": "D5", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d20", "label": "D20", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d40", "label": "D40", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 } ], "calibration": [], "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "directional_accuracy": null, "forward_resolved_count": 0, "forward_resolved_forecast_count": 0, "forward_test_status": "OPEN_BOOK_NO_FORWARD_RESOLUTIONS", "interval_coverage": null, "mae": null, "mae_skill_vs_baseline": null, "matured_data_pending_count": 0, "mean_bias": null, "open_forecast_count": 0, "performance_status": "UNPROVEN", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "profitability_claim": false, "resolved_forecast_count": 0, "rmse": null, "schema_version": "alpha.structural_forecast_scorecard.v1", "skill_vs_baseline": null, "status": "NO_RESOLVED_FORWARD_FORECASTS", "unique_resolved_release_revision_count": 0, "unique_resolved_report_release_count": 0, "validation_mode": "IMMUTABLE_GENUINELY_FORWARD_OOS" }, "frozen_forecasts": [], "futures_implications": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESES", "generated_at_ct": "2026-07-20T05:50:11.253155-05:00", "headline": { "confidence": "HIGH", "dominant_stage": "placements_vs_meat_availability", "horizon": "current through 18 months", "state": "TIGHTENING_LATER_WITH_MEAT_CUSHIONS_NOW", "text": "The later fed-cattle pipeline is tightening while heavier carcasses and trade flows cushion beef availability now.", "what_changed": "No semantic structural change since the prior frozen vintage." }, "history": { "changed_metric_ids": [], "previous_fingerprint": "ac2f29fcd228e40b879b949c8361dd8b1883a3a6ac34d03537fdb8b1e40c06e7", "semantic_changed": true, "vintage_count": 20, "vintage_recorded": true }, "live_trade_status": "DISABLED", "max_points": 0, "mode": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "model_card": { "baseline": "Expanding historical mean inside V2 walk-forward diagnostics; zero-change baseline in the immutable forward registry.", "calibration_policy": "No calibrated claim until at least 36 independent genuinely forward report releases and at least 10 unique releases per claimed horizon; correlated role-by-horizon cells and same-report revisions do not count as independent releases. Current status remains NOT_CALIBRATED.", "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "data_sources": [ "USDA NASS COF as-released event rows", "Databento Live Cattle fixed-contract daily bars" ], "evaluation_metrics": [ "MAE", "baseline-relative MAE skill", "directional accuracy", "prediction correlation", "80% interval coverage" ], "fairness_scope": "Not applicable to people; monitor contract-month and market-regime coverage instead.", "feature_families": [ "USDA COF year-over-year release values", "activity-month seasonality" ], "features": [ "on_feed_yoy_delta_pp", "placements_yoy_delta_pp", "marketings_yoy_delta_pp", "activity_month_season_sin", "activity_month_season_cos" ], "governance": { "auto_promotion_path": false, "decision_effect": "NONE", "max_points": 0, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "horizon_definitions": { "d1": "1 actual later fixed-contract session(s)", "d20": "20 actual later fixed-contract session(s)", "d40": "40 actual later fixed-contract session(s)", "d5": "5 actual later fixed-contract session(s)" }, "horizons": [ "d1", "d5", "d20", "d40" ], "intended_uses": [ "research", "hypothesis tracking", "forward accountability", "contract-window comparison" ], "known_limitations": [ "No contemporaneous consensus-surprise feature", "Conditional report response is not all-factor intrinsic value", "Weekday target scheduling is conservative and is reconciled to actual fixed-contract sessions at resolution", "No demonstrated forward predictive edge yet", "No transaction costs, slippage, liquidity, or executable strategy economics" ], "leakage_controls": [ "As-released report values only", "Latest event excluded from training", "Training labels must complete before prediction", "Forward registry rejects horizons already mature at first issuance" ], "lifecycle_status": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "model_name": "Structural Futures V2 fixed-contract COF response", "model_type": "Expanding-window ridge regression with fixed-contract event responses", "model_version": "cof-fixed-contract-ridge-v2.1.0", "monitoring": { "baseline_relative_scorecard": true, "calibration_minimum_unique_report_releases": 36, "immutable_forecast_book": true, "open_outcomes_retained": true }, "owner": "Alpha Structural Radar research boundary", "prediction_population": "Highest-volume unexpired Live Cattle fixed contract and the next two listed expiries on the release date.", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "prohibited_uses": [ "WOW Command input", "official decision input", "live trading", "position sizing", "intrinsic fair-value claim" ], "promotion_criteria": [ "At least 36 independent genuinely forward report releases", "At least 10 unique report releases per claimed horizon", "Positive baseline-relative MAE skill with stable directional evidence", "Independent governance review; never automatic promotion" ], "promotion_gate_passed": false, "purpose": "Estimate a conditional fixed-contract price response after a Cattle on Feed release.", "reproducibility": "Each issuance freezes the implementation SHA-256, fitted ridge coefficients/normalization/penalty, exact training-row identity hash, event features, source hashes, and model-spec hash.", "schema_version": "alpha.model_card.structural_futures_v2.v1", "status": "RESEARCH_ONLY_UNVALIDATED", "target": "Nth actual later RTH last-trade close versus same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close before the after-close COF release; these are not official CME settlements.", "target_definition": "Nth actual later RTH last-trade close versus same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close before the after-close COF release; these are not official CME settlements.", "training": { "continuous_or_stitched_prices_used": false, "fixed_contract_only": true, "method": "Ridge regression fit only to fully labeled events available before each prediction timestamp.", "minimum_train_events": 24, "walk_forward_evaluation": true }, "training_cutoff": "Strictly before each prediction release; every included label must also have completed before that release.", "uncertainty": "Residual 10th/90th-percentile response interval where enough walk-forward residuals exist.", "validation_method": "Expanding-window point-in-time walk-forward", "validation_protocol": "Expanding-window, point-in-time walk-forward evaluation against an expanding-mean diagnostic baseline." }, "module": "ALPHA_STRUCTURAL_RADAR_V1", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "previous_vintage_record_hash": "d42764104f42b02a9ac4b3e38d5949c869067996b108dcfaf8981dc022faf030", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "revision_ledger": [ { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_on_feed_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_placements_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_marketings_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_other_disappearance_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_less_than_600_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_600_699_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_700_799_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_800_899_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_900_999_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_1000_lbs_and_greater", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_head_count_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-10" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-16" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "blended_live_cash", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "tuesday_cutout_average_change_pct", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-14" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-04-01" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "intended_heifer_replacements", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-01-01" } ], "schema_version": "1.0.0", "semantic_fingerprint": "338695dfc835fa8edcdb6ceb2098cdc1ace87ab8936552bf07eefa6766ea7ce7", "separation_contract": { "auto_promotion_path": false, "calls_decision_components": false, "official_decision_effect": "NONE", "radar_write_root": "/opt/alpha_structural_radar", "reads_decision_outputs": false, "source_root_read_only": "/opt/alpha_current", "wow_command_effect": "NONE", "write_allowlist": [ "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs/structural_radar_status.json", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs/structural_radar_history.json", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/data/structural_radar/vintages.jsonl", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/state/structural_radar.lock" ], "writes_decision_outputs": false }, "source_ledger": [ { "error": null, "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 30, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-06-18", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "c1ff68ce85fc2b78a91da268a893537297fa9e92d5a0e250b6995cdc417ee278", "source_id": "USDA_NASS_COF", "source_module": "cattle_on_feed", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/cattle_on_feed_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-05", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "78e7473a0c31dd4bfab49776ac1b8b5007dbef3a7245414049e0cd51d91f12d2", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_TRADE", "source_module": "import_exports", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/import_exports_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "business_release_lag": 0, "calendar_age_days": 0, "expected_report_date": "2026-07-17", "holiday_calendar_note": "Weekday-aware; USDA holiday exceptions may produce WATCH until the next release.", "reason": "Latest expected weekday USDA CEI report is present.", "release_cutoff_ct": "15:45", "report_date": "2026-07-17", "state": "PASS", "status": "PASS", "weekend_aware": true }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-17 after 15:30 CT", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "48f96e1012219d4c2366c13b018bc2e9bbbac85b921fa22c380cc7c273af5288", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_CEI", "source_module": "ALPHA_PACKER_ECONOMICS_V1", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/packer_economics_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-16", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "383fb5e8d19ec5ea1fbcb5cb6d1852eba371339538456d344ce796642d08bef9", "source_id": "USDA_APHIS", "source_module": "animal_health", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/animal_health_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "pass_max_days": 2, "state": "PASS", "watch_max_days": 5 }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-17 daily publication", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "527038b31479017a89081a8a37e30d5cd74267e63d3d1c7c334265f067e1ee5c", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_CASH", "source_module": "cash_cattle", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/cash_cattle_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "expected_latest_tuesday": "2026-07-14", "last_refresh_time_ct": "2026-07-16T06:59:29.597871-05:00", "latest_report_date": "2026-07-14", "reason": "Canonical Tuesday afternoon LM_XB403 history is current and complete.", "state": "PASS", "status_error": null, "status_report_date": "2026-07-14", "status_source_fingerprint": "2027cdf8ed4a7c48d5672b274003150a50154cd4402aaba529e4c6a090a53c4d", "status_source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/boxed_beef/boxed_beef_tuesday_history_status.json" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-14", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "4fc7f01ec6b4531a1c3c93384b3608a0938fc9fbbb97046828f45151e95b0563", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_BOXED_TUESDAY", "source_module": "boxed_beef_tuesday_history", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/boxed_beef/boxed_beef_tuesday_history.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-19T21:30:26", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-10", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "925d7282ec8e620d71fbb55b99b4726df151a41ac5ac3545c105546f635ca09b", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT", "source_module": "weekly_kill_weights", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/weekly_kill_weights.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "cadence": "Quarterly USDA ERS feeder supply", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-04-01", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "32d71256ffb42497325ea439db5ed6a00752be99019c9ab73562950ad87f581b", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_FEEDER_SUPPLY", "source_module": "ers_feeder_supply", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/ers_livestock_domestic_data/livestock-data-machine-readable-files/FeederCattleSuppliesOutsideFeedlots.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "DERIVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "cadence": "Annual USDA ERS herd replacement", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-01-01", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "281e3d55e23156459116f1b342105d36eb78c6d3295597ee52f60c846528960d", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_HERD_REPLACEMENT", "source_module": "ers_heifer_replacements", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/ers_livestock_domestic_data/livestock-data-machine-readable-files/heifersenteringherd.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" } ], "status": "PASS", "structural_futures_v2": { "cohort_timing_bridge": { "assumptions": { "contract_mapping": "Each possible market-ready day maps to the nearest still-unexpired Feb/Apr/Jun/Aug/Oct/Dec Live Cattle contract midpoint. Expiry uses the last weekday as an approximation and does not encode exchange holidays.", "days_on_feed": { "1000_lbs_and_greater": [ 50, 110 ], "600_699_lbs": [ 170, 230 ], "700_799_lbs": [ 140, 200 ], "800_899_lbs": [ 110, 170 ], "900_999_lbs": [ 80, 140 ], "less_than_600_lbs": [ 190, 250 ] }, "exposure_weighting": "Placement day and days-on-feed are modeled as independent discrete uniform assumptions, then convolved. These are scenario weights, not empirical probabilities.", "interpretation": "Head-equivalent exposure is a timing bridge, not deliverable supply, open interest, fair value, or a price forecast.", "placement_date_uncertainty": "Earliest uses activity-month start; latest uses activity-month end." }, "buckets": [ { "bucket_id": "less_than_600_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 209836.1, "delta_head_equivalent": -9836.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 219672.1, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.655738 }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 110163.9, "delta_head_equivalent": -5163.9, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 115327.9, "symbol": "LEG7", "window_day_share": 0.344262 } ], "current_head": 320000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 250, "minimum": 190 }, "delta_head": -15000, "delta_pct": -4.478, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-11-07", "latest": "2027-02-05" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-11-25", "p50": "2026-12-22", "p90": "2027-01-18", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 335000 }, { "bucket_id": "600_699_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 11549.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -1684.3, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 13233.7, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.048123 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 211189.8, "delta_head_equivalent": -30798.5, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 241988.4, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.879958 }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 17260.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -2517.2, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 19777.9, "symbol": "LEG7", "window_day_share": 0.07192 } ], "current_head": 240000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 230, "minimum": 170 }, "delta_head": -35000, "delta_pct": -12.727, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-10-18", "latest": "2027-01-16" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-11-05", "p50": "2026-12-02", "p90": "2026-12-29", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 275000 }, { "bucket_id": "700_799_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 183606.6, "delta_head_equivalent": -22950.8, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 206557.4, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.459016 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 216393.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -27049.2, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 243442.6, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.540984 } ], "current_head": 400000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 200, "minimum": 140 }, "delta_head": -50000, 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"role": "near", "symbol": "LEQ6" }, { "cohort_timing_exposure": { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 706142.8, "delta_head_equivalent": -89816.5, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 795959.3, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEV6" }, "contract_id": "LE-2026-10", "horizons": [ { "conditional_fair_value": 241.825, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 239.2, 243.675 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d1", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": 0.531029, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-22" }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.721589, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -0.374333, 1.488104 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 242.075, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 236.45, 246.775 ], "estimate_status": 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"estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d40", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "predicted_response_pct": 2.053093, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.30899, 8.914597 ], "status": "PASS" } ], "role": "mid", "symbol": "LEV6" }, { "cohort_timing_exposure": { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 677569.5, "delta_head_equivalent": -74194.6, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 751764.1, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEZ6" }, "contract_id": "LE-2026-12", "horizons": [ { "conditional_fair_value": 240.8, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 238.65, 242.325 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d1", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": 0.585468, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-22" }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.697705, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -0.196348, 1.335889 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 241.175, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 235.65, 246.15 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d5", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": -0.230005, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-26" }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.857373, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.450258, 2.941915 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 241.675, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 234.8, 254.525 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d20", "latest_observed_outcome": { 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"curve_twist_model_active": false, "curve_twist_pricing_authority": "NONE", "fair_value_limitation": "Conditional report-response price is not an all-factor intrinsic fair value and cannot be promoted by this module.", "fixed_contract_only": true, "implementation_sha256": "122b355739d8f28522367bcb9b4097a897fa382cc2fbe049c89d448fb81c0d56", "known_limitations": [ "Historical price references are Databento RTH last-trade closes, not official CME settlements.", "Daily source rows do not retain the final bar timestamp; pre-release ordering relies on the scheduled 13:05 CT RTH close preceding the recorded 14:00 CT COF release.", "No licensed analyst-consensus surprise series is available; report features are printed YoY levels, not consensus surprises.", "Role, horizon, and regime heterogeneity remain research limitations; all operational gates stay closed." ], "latest_release_date": "2026-06-18", "model_version": "cof-fixed-contract-ridge-v2.1.0", "models": [ { 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Same-report roles, horizons, and revisions do not inflate the independent-release threshold. The sibling checkpoint is best-effort and no external WORM anchor exists; accountability is partial and predictive profitability is not graded.", "status": "PARTIAL", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "OPERATIONAL_ISOLATION", "earned": 15.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Base radar has no decision or WOW effect", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Registry writes only below the sibling radar root and the required runtime permission probe passes", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "No live-trade use, auto-promotion, or execution points", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Operational and WOW Command isolation", "status": "PASS", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "TRANSPARENCY", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Complete model card states purpose, target, data, leakage controls, limitations, and governance", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Scorecard names a frozen baseline and baseline-relative primary metric", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Model-card and baseline transparency", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 } ], "eligibility": { "operational_promotion_eligible": false, "predictive_profitability_grade_eligible": false, "status": "ELIGIBLE_SYSTEM_QUALITY_ONLY", "system_quality_grade_eligible": true }, "explicit_exclusions": [ "predictive profitability", "tradable edge", "live execution quality", "risk-adjusted returns" ], "max_points": 0, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "profitability_claim": false, "rubric_id": "ALPHA_SYSTEM_QUALITY_NON_PROFITABILITY_V1", "schema_version": "alpha.system_quality_audit.v1", "scope": "SYSTEM_DESIGN_DATA_INTEGRITY_GOVERNANCE_AND_ACCOUNTABILITY", "score": { "earned": 91.0, "grade": "A-", "maximum": 100.0, "normalized_10": 9.1 }, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "theses": [ { "active_alert_ids": [ "later_fed_pipeline_tightening", "weight_offsets_head_decline", "trade_cushions_domestic_availability", "processing_margin_pressure" ], "confirmation": "Later marketings and slaughter tighten after placement cohorts roll forward while meat cushions fade.", "contradictions": [ "cof_on_feed_head", "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs" ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "cof_placements_head", "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "beef_exports_ytd_cwe" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "current through 18 months", "invalidation": "Placements recover or meat availability remains ample enough to prevent the expected tightening.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "PRIMARY_WORKING_HYPOTHESIS", "state": "TIGHTENING_LATER_WITH_MEAT_CUSHIONS_NOW", "thesis_id": "later_head_tightness_near_meat_cushion", "title": "Later fed-cattle tightness, buffered near-term beef availability" }, { "confirmation": "Weights, imports, dairy-beef supply, or weak exports continue replacing domestic fed-cattle tonnage.", "contradictions": [ "cof_placements_head", "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots" ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "current through 12 months", "invalidation": "Weights normalize and trade cushions reverse before placements recover.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "COMPETING_HYPOTHESIS", "thesis_id": "meat_availability_outlasts_head_shortage", "title": "Beef availability stays adequate longer than cattle head counts imply" }, { "confirmation": "Verified capacity exits or sustained shift reductions tighten the hook-to-cattle balance.", "contradictions": [ "No verified plant closure is inferred from margin data alone." ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "cof_marketings_head", "weekly_fi_slaughter_head" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "3-24 months", "invalidation": "Margins recover and observed capacity remains stable.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "COMPETING_HYPOTHESIS", "thesis_id": "capacity_rationalization_changes_leverage", "title": "Processing-capacity rationalization changes packer and feedyard leverage" } ], "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "validation": { "all_units_typed": true, "decision_effect": "NONE", "failed_reconciliations": [], "futures_pricing_model_active": false, "maximum_execution_points": 0, "missing_core_metrics": [], "missing_inputs": [], "numeric_forecast_policy": "No forward numeric value is emitted until an independently validated model supplies it.", "point_in_time_only": true, "promotion_gate_passed": false, "semantic_vintage_chain_validation": "PASS_WITH_LEGACY_PREFIX", "semantic_vintage_checkpoint_prior_state": "PASS", "semantic_vintage_checkpoint_validation": "PASS", "semantic_vintage_external_anchor_present": false, "semantic_vintage_parse_strict": true, "semantic_vintages": true, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "vintage_record_hash": "9f5d2be38a732f02c5e6ac5210721679fb29f9a3d56eeaca718b24756dee4c0a", "warnings": [] }, { "balance_sheet": { "as_of": "2026-07-20", "periods": [ { "period": "Current feedlot inventory", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current fed-cattle inventory.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 32, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Cattle on feed", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_on_feed_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "feedlot_inventory", "unit": "head", "value": 11682000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": 2.0 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Incoming placement pipeline", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Incoming fed-cattle pipeline.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 32, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Monthly placements", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_placements_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "incoming_pipeline", "unit": "head", "value": 1704000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -10.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 32, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements under 600 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_less_than_600_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 320000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 32, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 600-699 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_600_699_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 240000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 32, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 700-799 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_700_799_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 400000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 32, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 800-899 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_800_899_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 444000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 32, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 900-999 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_900_999_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 225000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 32, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 1,000+ lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_1000_lbs_and_greater", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 75000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "USDA ERS-derived feeder-cattle reservoir outside feedlots; lower inventory can constrain future placements.", "freshness": { "cadence": "Quarterly USDA ERS feeder supply", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Feeder cattle outside feedlots", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_FEEDER_SUPPLY" ], "stage": "feeder_supply", "unit": "thousand_head", "value": 18776.97, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-04-01", "yoy_pct": 2.2631 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Fed-cattle outflow and meat production", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Fed-cattle outflow toward slaughter.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 32, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Monthly marketings", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_marketings_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "fed_outflow", "unit": "head", "value": 1551000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -12.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Non-marketing feedlot disappearance.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 32, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Other disappearance", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_other_disappearance_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "fed_outflow", "unit": "head", "value": 55000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -11.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Observed weekly cattle head throughput.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-20T21:30:02", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Weekly federally inspected slaughter", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "slaughter", "unit": "head", "value": 525000.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "yoy_pct": -7.4074 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Pounds produced per slaughtered animal.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-20T21:30:02", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Average dressed weight", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "yield", "unit": "lb_per_head", "value": 887.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "yoy_pct": 2.662 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Observed weekly beef output combines head throughput and carcass yield.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-20T21:30:02", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Weekly beef production", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "meat_output", "unit": "million_lb", "value": 464.5, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "yoy_pct": -5.0491 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Counterfactual pounds effect holding year-ago dressed weight constant.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-20T21:30:02", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Head-count contribution to weekly production change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_head_count_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "production_bridge", "unit": "million_lb", "value": -36.288, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Incremental pounds attributable to the dressed-weight change at current slaughter.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-20T21:30:02", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Dressed-weight contribution to weekly production change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "production_bridge", "unit": "million_lb", "value": 12.075, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "yoy_pct": null } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Trade and domestic availability", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Imported beef adds to domestic carcass-weight-equivalent availability.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date beef imports", "metadata": { "ytd_comparable": true, "ytd_through_month": 5 }, "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 2754566570.58, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": 9.9 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Exported beef removes product from domestic availability while reflecting foreign demand.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date beef exports", "metadata": { "ytd_comparable": true, "ytd_through_month": 5 }, "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 978518541.27, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": -17.2 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Imports less exports; this is a product-availability measure, not a fed-cattle-equivalent count.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date net beef imports", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 1776048029.31, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": -1.7342, "economic_read": "Weekly wholesale movement; descriptive context only because its futures validation gate has not passed.", "freshness": { "expected_latest_tuesday": "2026-07-14", "last_refresh_time_ct": "2026-07-16T06:59:29.597871-05:00", "latest_report_date": "2026-07-14", "reason": "Canonical Tuesday afternoon LM_XB403 history is current and complete.", "state": "PASS", "status_error": null, "status_report_date": "2026-07-14", "status_source_fingerprint": "2027cdf8ed4a7c48d5672b274003150a50154cd4402aaba529e4c6a090a53c4d", "status_source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/boxed_beef/boxed_beef_tuesday_history_status.json" }, "label": "Tuesday Choice/Select average weekly change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "tuesday_cutout_average_change_pct", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_BOXED_TUESDAY" ], "stage": "wholesale_demand", "unit": "percent", "value": -1.7342, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-14", "yoy_pct": null } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Capacity, cash, herd, and policy context", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Standardized box-minus-live operating-spread proxy; not company net income and not a futures timing signal.", "freshness": { "business_release_lag": 0, "calendar_age_days": 0, "expected_report_date": "2026-07-20", "holiday_calendar_note": "Weekday-aware; USDA holiday exceptions may produce WATCH until the next release.", "reason": "Latest expected weekday USDA CEI report is present.", "release_cutoff_ct": "15:45", "report_date": "2026-07-20", "state": "PASS", "status": "PASS", "weekend_aware": true }, "label": "USDA CEI gross packer spread", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_CEI" ], "stage": "processing_economics", "unit": "usd_per_cwt_carcass", "value": 0.2803, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-20", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current operating status constrains or restores feeder-cattle inflow; duration and price impact are not assumed.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Southern livestock port status", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_APHIS" ], "stage": "biological_policy", "unit": "status", "value": "CLOSED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-16", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current cash transmission and feedyard/packer leverage context.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "pass_max_days": 2, "state": "PASS", "watch_max_days": 5 }, "label": "Blended live cash cattle", "metadata": { "change_vs_last_week_usd_per_cwt": -9.73 }, "metric_id": "blended_live_cash", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_CASH" ], "stage": "cash_transmission", "unit": "usd_per_cwt_live", "value": 234.18, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-20", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Replacement intentions inform herd rebuilding capacity; they do not guarantee retained females or calf-crop growth.", "freshness": { "cadence": "Annual USDA ERS herd replacement", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Intended heifer replacements", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "intended_heifer_replacements", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_HERD_REPLACEMENT" ], "stage": "breeding_herd", "unit": "thousand_head", "value": 8618.8, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-01-01", "yoy_pct": 0.361 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" } ], "reconciliations": [ { "actual": 1704000.0, "check_id": "cof_placement_buckets", "expected": 1704000.0, "name": "Placement weight buckets sum to placements", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 1000.0, "unit": "head" }, { "actual": 11682000.0, "check_id": "cof_head_flow", "expected": 11682000.0, "name": "Opening inventory plus placements less outflows equals closing inventory", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 1000.0, "unit": "head" }, { "actual": 464.5, "check_id": "weekly_production_bridge", "expected": 464.98699999999997, "name": "Year-ago production plus head effect plus weight effect reconciles to current production", "passed": true, "residual": -0.487, "tolerance": 2.3225000000000002, "unit": "million_lb" }, { "actual": 1776048029.31, "check_id": "net_trade_identity", "expected": 1776048029.31, "name": "Imports less exports equals net imports", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 0.01, "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent" } ], "status": "RECONCILED", "summary": { "beef_supply_change_pct": -5.0491, "dressed_weight_yoy_pct": 2.662, "exports_ytd_change_pct": -17.2, "imports_ytd_change_pct": 9.9, "observation_count": 24, "reconciliation_count": 4, "reconciliation_pass_count": 4, "slaughter_yoy_pct": -7.4074, "source_count": 9, "source_ledger_row_count": 9, "status": "RECONCILED", "weight_offset_of_head_decline_pct": 33.28 }, "unit_policy": "No cattle-head-to-beef-pound conversion is made without an exposed observed weight or typed derivation." }, "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "change_alerts": [ { "alert_id": "later_fed_pipeline_tightening", "counter_evidence": "Current cattle on feed are +2.0% YoY.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "TIGHTENING_LATER", "horizon": "3-18 months", "invalidation": "Placements and feeder availability normalize, or the livestock-border constraint is formally removed.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "WATCH", "summary": "The later fed-cattle pipeline is tightening, but this is not a futures signal.", "triggers": [ { "label": "Placements -10.0% YoY", "metric_id": "cof_placements_head" }, { "label": "Southern livestock ports closed", "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports" } ] }, { "alert_id": "weight_offsets_head_decline", "counter_evidence": "Reported weekly beef production remains -5.0% YoY.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "MEAT_CUSHION", "horizon": "current to 3 months", "invalidation": "Dressed weights stop offsetting lower head throughput.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "ACTIVE", "summary": "Heavier carcasses are replacing part of the beef tonnage lost to lower slaughter.", "triggers": [ { "label": "Slaughter -7.4% YoY", "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head" }, { "label": "Dressed weight +2.7% YoY", "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs" } ] }, { "alert_id": "trade_cushions_domestic_availability", "counter_evidence": "Product mix and imported lean are not fully interchangeable with Choice fed-beef cuts.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "DOMESTIC_AVAILABILITY_CUSHION", "horizon": "current to 6 months", "invalidation": "Imports reverse lower and exports recover enough to remove the net availability cushion.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "ACTIVE", "summary": "Trade flows are cushioning domestic beef availability despite tighter cattle head counts.", "triggers": [ { "label": "YTD imports +9.9%", "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe" }, { "label": "YTD exports -17.2%", "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe" } ] } ], "composer_contract": { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "composer_version": "alpha.structural_radar.composer.v2.0.0", "decision_effect": "NONE", "max_points": 0, "mode": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, 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fixed-contract price response after a Cattle on Feed release.", "reproducibility": "Each issuance freezes the implementation SHA-256, fitted ridge coefficients/normalization/penalty, exact training-row identity hash, event features, source hashes, and model-spec hash.", "schema_version": "alpha.model_card.structural_futures_v2.v1", "status": "RESEARCH_ONLY_UNVALIDATED", "target": "Nth actual later RTH last-trade close versus same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close before the after-close COF release; these are not official CME settlements.", "target_definition": "Nth actual later RTH last-trade close versus same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close before the after-close COF release; these are not official CME settlements.", "training": { "continuous_or_stitched_prices_used": false, "fixed_contract_only": true, "method": "Ridge regression fit only to fully labeled events available before each prediction timestamp.", "minimum_train_events": 24, "walk_forward_evaluation": true }, 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"NON_MUTATING_OS_ACCESS_EFFECTIVE_IDS", "radar_outputs_path": "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs", "required": true, "results": { "decision_output_writable": false, "radar_outputs_writable": true, "source_root_writable": false }, "source_root": "/opt/alpha_current", "status": "PASS" }, "source_root_read_only": "/opt/alpha_current", "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "wow_command_effect": "NONE", "write_allowlist": [ "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/data/structural_forecast_registry/records.jsonl", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs/structural_forecast_registry_status.json", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/state/structural_forecast_registry.lock" ], "writes_only_below_radar_root": true }, "schema_version": "alpha.structural_forecast_registry.v1", "scorecard": { "baseline": { "baseline_id": "ZERO_CHANGE_FIXED_CONTRACT_V1", "definition": "Zero report-response return from the pre-report fixed-contract close.", "frozen_at_issuance": true }, "by_contract_role": {}, "by_horizon": { "d1": { "baseline_mae_response_pct": null, "interval_80_coverage": null, "mae_skill_vs_zero_change_baseline": null, "model_directional_accuracy": null, "model_mae_response_pct": null, "model_mean_error_response_pct": null, "model_rmse_response_pct": null, "n_resolved": 0, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "unique_release_revision_count": 0, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, "d20": { "baseline_mae_response_pct": null, "interval_80_coverage": null, "mae_skill_vs_zero_change_baseline": null, "model_directional_accuracy": null, "model_mae_response_pct": null, "model_mean_error_response_pct": null, "model_rmse_response_pct": null, "n_resolved": 0, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "unique_release_revision_count": 0, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, "d40": { "baseline_mae_response_pct": null, "interval_80_coverage": null, "mae_skill_vs_zero_change_baseline": null, "model_directional_accuracy": null, "model_mae_response_pct": null, "model_mean_error_response_pct": null, "model_rmse_response_pct": null, "n_resolved": 0, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "unique_release_revision_count": 0, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, "d5": { "baseline_mae_response_pct": null, "interval_80_coverage": null, "mae_skill_vs_zero_change_baseline": null, "model_directional_accuracy": null, "model_mae_response_pct": null, "model_mean_error_response_pct": null, "model_rmse_response_pct": null, "n_resolved": 0, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "unique_release_revision_count": 0, "unique_report_release_count": 0 } }, "evaluation_population": "Only forecasts frozen while their target was genuinely open and later resolved from the same fixed contract.", "metric_policy": { "open_forecasts_scored": false, "primary": "MAE response percentage points relative to baseline MAE", "secondary": [ "RMSE", "mean error", "directional accuracy", "80% interval coverage" ] }, "overall": { "baseline_mae_response_pct": null, "interval_80_coverage": null, "mae_skill_vs_zero_change_baseline": null, "model_directional_accuracy": null, "model_mae_response_pct": null, "model_mean_error_response_pct": null, "model_rmse_response_pct": null, "n_resolved": 0, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "unique_release_revision_count": 0, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "profitability_claim": false, "schema_version": "alpha.structural_forecast_scorecard.v1" }, "status": "PASS", "warnings": [] }, "forecast_scorecard": { "baseline": "ZERO_CHANGE_FIXED_CONTRACT_V1", "baseline_name": "ZERO_CHANGE_FIXED_CONTRACT_V1", "breakdowns": [ { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d1", "label": "D1", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d5", "label": "D5", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d20", "label": "D20", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d40", "label": "D40", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 } ], "by_horizon": [ { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d1", "label": "D1", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d5", "label": "D5", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d20", "label": "D20", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d40", "label": "D40", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 } ], "calibration": [], "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "directional_accuracy": null, "forward_resolved_count": 0, "forward_resolved_forecast_count": 0, "forward_test_status": "OPEN_BOOK_NO_FORWARD_RESOLUTIONS", "interval_coverage": null, "mae": null, "mae_skill_vs_baseline": null, "matured_data_pending_count": 0, "mean_bias": null, "open_forecast_count": 0, "performance_status": "UNPROVEN", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "profitability_claim": false, "resolved_forecast_count": 0, "rmse": null, "schema_version": "alpha.structural_forecast_scorecard.v1", "skill_vs_baseline": null, "status": "NO_RESOLVED_FORWARD_FORECASTS", "unique_resolved_release_revision_count": 0, "unique_resolved_report_release_count": 0, "validation_mode": "IMMUTABLE_GENUINELY_FORWARD_OOS" }, "frozen_forecasts": [], "futures_implications": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESES", "generated_at_ct": "2026-07-20T16:50:31.817646-05:00", "headline": { "confidence": "HIGH", "dominant_stage": "placements_vs_meat_availability", "horizon": "current through 18 months", "state": "TIGHTENING_LATER_WITH_MEAT_CUSHIONS_NOW", "text": "The later fed-cattle pipeline is tightening while heavier carcasses and trade flows cushion beef availability now.", "what_changed": "Changed observations: weekly_fi_slaughter_head, weekly_dressed_weight_lbs, weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs, weekly_head_count_effect_mil_lbs, weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs, packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass, blended_live_cash." }, "history": { "changed_metric_ids": [ "weekly_fi_slaughter_head", "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs", "weekly_head_count_effect_mil_lbs", "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "blended_live_cash" ], "previous_fingerprint": "338695dfc835fa8edcdb6ceb2098cdc1ace87ab8936552bf07eefa6766ea7ce7", "semantic_changed": true, "vintage_count": 21, "vintage_recorded": true }, "live_trade_status": "DISABLED", "max_points": 0, "mode": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "model_card": { "baseline": "Expanding historical mean inside V2 walk-forward diagnostics; zero-change baseline in the immutable forward registry.", "calibration_policy": "No calibrated claim until at least 36 independent genuinely forward report releases and at least 10 unique releases per claimed horizon; correlated role-by-horizon cells and same-report revisions do not count as independent releases. 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session(s)", "d40": "40 actual later fixed-contract session(s)", "d5": "5 actual later fixed-contract session(s)" }, "horizons": [ "d1", "d5", "d20", "d40" ], "intended_uses": [ "research", "hypothesis tracking", "forward accountability", "contract-window comparison" ], "known_limitations": [ "No contemporaneous consensus-surprise feature", "Conditional report response is not all-factor intrinsic value", "Weekday target scheduling is conservative and is reconciled to actual fixed-contract sessions at resolution", "No demonstrated forward predictive edge yet", "No transaction costs, slippage, liquidity, or executable strategy economics" ], "leakage_controls": [ "As-released report values only", "Latest event excluded from training", "Training labels must complete before prediction", "Forward registry rejects horizons already mature at first issuance" ], "lifecycle_status": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "model_name": "Structural Futures V2 fixed-contract COF response", "model_type": "Expanding-window ridge regression with fixed-contract event responses", "model_version": "cof-fixed-contract-ridge-v2.1.0", "monitoring": { "baseline_relative_scorecard": true, "calibration_minimum_unique_report_releases": 36, "immutable_forecast_book": true, "open_outcomes_retained": true }, "owner": "Alpha Structural Radar research boundary", "prediction_population": "Highest-volume unexpired Live Cattle fixed contract and the next two listed expiries on the release date.", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "prohibited_uses": [ "WOW Command input", "official decision input", "live trading", "position sizing", "intrinsic fair-value claim" ], "promotion_criteria": [ "At least 36 independent genuinely forward report releases", "At least 10 unique report releases per claimed horizon", "Positive baseline-relative MAE skill with stable directional evidence", "Independent governance review; never automatic promotion" ], "promotion_gate_passed": false, "purpose": "Estimate a conditional fixed-contract price response after a Cattle on Feed release.", "reproducibility": "Each issuance freezes the implementation SHA-256, fitted ridge coefficients/normalization/penalty, exact training-row identity hash, event features, source hashes, and model-spec hash.", "schema_version": "alpha.model_card.structural_futures_v2.v1", "status": "RESEARCH_ONLY_UNVALIDATED", "target": "Nth actual later RTH last-trade close versus same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close before the after-close COF release; these are not official CME settlements.", "target_definition": "Nth actual later RTH last-trade close versus same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close before the after-close COF release; these are not official CME settlements.", "training": { "continuous_or_stitched_prices_used": false, "fixed_contract_only": true, "method": "Ridge regression fit only to fully labeled events available before each prediction timestamp.", "minimum_train_events": 24, "walk_forward_evaluation": true }, "training_cutoff": "Strictly before each prediction release; every included label must also have completed before that release.", "uncertainty": "Residual 10th/90th-percentile response interval where enough walk-forward residuals exist.", "validation_method": "Expanding-window point-in-time walk-forward", "validation_protocol": "Expanding-window, point-in-time walk-forward evaluation against an expanding-mean diagnostic baseline." }, "module": "ALPHA_STRUCTURAL_RADAR_V1", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "previous_vintage_record_hash": "9f5d2be38a732f02c5e6ac5210721679fb29f9a3d56eeaca718b24756dee4c0a", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "revision_ledger": [ { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_on_feed_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_placements_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_marketings_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_other_disappearance_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_less_than_600_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_600_699_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_700_799_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_800_899_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_900_999_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_1000_lbs_and_greater", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Period advanced from 2026-07-10 to 2026-07-17.", "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17" }, { "detail": "Period advanced from 2026-07-10 to 2026-07-17.", "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17" }, { "detail": "Period advanced from 2026-07-10 to 2026-07-17.", "metric_id": "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17" }, { "detail": "Period advanced from 2026-07-10 to 2026-07-17.", "metric_id": "weekly_head_count_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17" }, { "detail": "Period advanced from 2026-07-10 to 2026-07-17.", "metric_id": "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Period advanced from 2026-07-17 to 2026-07-20.", "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "vintage_date": "2026-07-20" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-16" }, { "detail": "Period advanced from 2026-07-17 to 2026-07-20.", "metric_id": "blended_live_cash", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "vintage_date": "2026-07-20" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "tuesday_cutout_average_change_pct", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-14" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-04-01" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "intended_heifer_replacements", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-01-01" } ], "schema_version": "1.0.0", "semantic_fingerprint": "b4d5865c425bd8e943631b88c8eb696684ef61ffc82b8345476bc375ca3d3500", "separation_contract": { "auto_promotion_path": false, "calls_decision_components": false, "official_decision_effect": "NONE", "radar_write_root": "/opt/alpha_structural_radar", "reads_decision_outputs": false, "source_root_read_only": "/opt/alpha_current", "wow_command_effect": "NONE", "write_allowlist": [ "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs/structural_radar_status.json", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs/structural_radar_history.json", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/data/structural_radar/vintages.jsonl", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/state/structural_radar.lock" ], "writes_decision_outputs": false }, "source_ledger": [ { "error": null, "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 32, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-06-18", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "4b6efa5e98877ec503f02b50471ffe08c59a2759c931480a247d8b6122f0ba9e", "source_id": "USDA_NASS_COF", "source_module": "cattle_on_feed", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/cattle_on_feed_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-05", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "7ec013628d676dfc1745b967c24f2a0381fc74281282cfc3909aca79d2b44fee", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_TRADE", "source_module": "import_exports", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/import_exports_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "business_release_lag": 0, "calendar_age_days": 0, "expected_report_date": "2026-07-20", "holiday_calendar_note": "Weekday-aware; USDA holiday exceptions may produce WATCH until the next release.", "reason": "Latest expected weekday USDA CEI report is present.", "release_cutoff_ct": "15:45", "report_date": "2026-07-20", "state": "PASS", "status": "PASS", "weekend_aware": true }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-20 after 15:30 CT", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "d37015a3c4b7459ff827fdab3d9fbdc0f461c8b509fb758550bb885135c5d19d", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_CEI", "source_module": "ALPHA_PACKER_ECONOMICS_V1", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/packer_economics_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-16", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "666e9f9e515bdf5e8fa95a6911ca8754791f194faa5fe4d0b175b2a6556824f8", "source_id": "USDA_APHIS", "source_module": "animal_health", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/animal_health_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "pass_max_days": 2, "state": "PASS", "watch_max_days": 5 }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-20 daily publication", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "3f615b75d266153458933ec500b377e06eadc688ff4bcb20fcad2e4e5e76c831", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_CASH", "source_module": "cash_cattle", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/cash_cattle_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "expected_latest_tuesday": "2026-07-14", "last_refresh_time_ct": "2026-07-16T06:59:29.597871-05:00", "latest_report_date": "2026-07-14", "reason": "Canonical Tuesday afternoon LM_XB403 history is current and complete.", "state": "PASS", "status_error": null, "status_report_date": "2026-07-14", "status_source_fingerprint": "2027cdf8ed4a7c48d5672b274003150a50154cd4402aaba529e4c6a090a53c4d", "status_source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/boxed_beef/boxed_beef_tuesday_history_status.json" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-14", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "4fc7f01ec6b4531a1c3c93384b3608a0938fc9fbbb97046828f45151e95b0563", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_BOXED_TUESDAY", "source_module": "boxed_beef_tuesday_history", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/boxed_beef/boxed_beef_tuesday_history.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-20T21:30:02", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-17", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "9c42c9d43ce7d084c01cf6d75aec3f3725617a58cccf49d76a4e53a8f7991c41", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT", "source_module": "weekly_kill_weights", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/weekly_kill_weights.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "cadence": "Quarterly USDA ERS feeder supply", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-04-01", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "32d71256ffb42497325ea439db5ed6a00752be99019c9ab73562950ad87f581b", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_FEEDER_SUPPLY", "source_module": "ers_feeder_supply", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/ers_livestock_domestic_data/livestock-data-machine-readable-files/FeederCattleSuppliesOutsideFeedlots.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "DERIVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "cadence": "Annual USDA ERS herd replacement", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-01-01", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "281e3d55e23156459116f1b342105d36eb78c6d3295597ee52f60c846528960d", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_HERD_REPLACEMENT", "source_module": "ers_heifer_replacements", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/ers_livestock_domestic_data/livestock-data-machine-readable-files/heifersenteringherd.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" } ], "status": "PASS", "structural_futures_v2": { "cohort_timing_bridge": { "assumptions": { "contract_mapping": "Each possible market-ready day maps to the nearest still-unexpired Feb/Apr/Jun/Aug/Oct/Dec Live Cattle contract midpoint. Expiry uses the last weekday as an approximation and does not encode exchange holidays.", "days_on_feed": { "1000_lbs_and_greater": [ 50, 110 ], "600_699_lbs": [ 170, 230 ], "700_799_lbs": [ 140, 200 ], "800_899_lbs": [ 110, 170 ], "900_999_lbs": [ 80, 140 ], "less_than_600_lbs": [ 190, 250 ] }, "exposure_weighting": "Placement day and days-on-feed are modeled as independent discrete uniform assumptions, then convolved. These are scenario weights, not empirical probabilities.", "interpretation": "Head-equivalent exposure is a timing bridge, not deliverable supply, open interest, fair value, or a price forecast.", "placement_date_uncertainty": "Earliest uses activity-month start; latest uses activity-month end." }, "buckets": [ { "bucket_id": "less_than_600_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 209836.1, "delta_head_equivalent": -9836.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 219672.1, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.655738 }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 110163.9, "delta_head_equivalent": -5163.9, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 115327.9, "symbol": "LEG7", "window_day_share": 0.344262 } ], "current_head": 320000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 250, "minimum": 190 }, "delta_head": -15000, "delta_pct": -4.478, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-11-07", "latest": "2027-02-05" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-11-25", "p50": "2026-12-22", "p90": "2027-01-18", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 335000 }, { "bucket_id": "600_699_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 11549.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -1684.3, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 13233.7, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.048123 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 211189.8, "delta_head_equivalent": -30798.5, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 241988.4, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.879958 }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 17260.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -2517.2, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 19777.9, "symbol": "LEG7", "window_day_share": 0.07192 } ], "current_head": 240000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 230, "minimum": 170 }, "delta_head": -35000, "delta_pct": -12.727, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-10-18", "latest": "2027-01-16" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-11-05", "p50": "2026-12-02", "p90": "2026-12-29", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 275000 }, { "bucket_id": "700_799_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 183606.6, "delta_head_equivalent": -22950.8, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 206557.4, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.459016 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 216393.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -27049.2, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 243442.6, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.540984 } ], "current_head": 400000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 200, "minimum": 140 }, "delta_head": -50000, "delta_pct": -11.111, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-09-18", "latest": "2026-12-17" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-10-06", "p50": "2026-11-02", "p90": "2026-11-29", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 450000 }, { "bucket_id": "800_899_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 21366.5, "delta_head_equivalent": -3464.8, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 24831.3, "symbol": "LEQ6", "window_day_share": 0.048123 }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 382483.3, "delta_head_equivalent": -62024.3, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 444507.7, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.861449 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 40150.2, "delta_head_equivalent": -6510.8, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 46661.0, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.090428 } ], "current_head": 444000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 170, "minimum": 110 }, "delta_head": -72000, "delta_pct": -13.953, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-08-19", "latest": "2026-11-17" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-09-06", "p50": "2026-10-03", "p90": "2026-10-30", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 516000 }, { "bucket_id": "900_999_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 103278.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -2295.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 105573.8, "symbol": "LEQ6", "window_day_share": 0.459016 }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 121721.3, "delta_head_equivalent": -2704.9, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 124426.2, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.540984 } ], "current_head": 225000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 140, "minimum": 80 }, "delta_head": -5000, "delta_pct": -2.174, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-07-20", "latest": "2026-10-18" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-08-07", "p50": "2026-09-03", "p90": "2026-09-30", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 230000 }, { "bucket_id": "1000_lbs_and_greater", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-06", "current_head_equivalent": 2617.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -174.5, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 2792.2, "symbol": "LEM6", "window_day_share": 0.034902 }, { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 65600.2, "delta_head_equivalent": -4373.3, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 69973.6, "symbol": "LEQ6", "window_day_share": 0.874669 }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 6782.1, "delta_head_equivalent": -452.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 7234.3, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.090428 } ], "current_head": 75000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 110, "minimum": 50 }, "delta_head": -5000, "delta_pct": -6.25, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-06-20", "latest": "2026-09-18" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-07-08", "p50": "2026-08-04", "p90": "2026-08-31", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 80000 } ], "comparison": "SAME_ACTIVITY_MONTH_AS_RELEASED_YEAR_OVER_YEAR", "contracts": [ { "contract_month": "2026-06", "current_head_equivalent": 2617.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -174.5, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 2792.2, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEM6" }, { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 190245.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -10133.3, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 200378.6, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEQ6" }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 706142.8, "delta_head_equivalent": -89816.5, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 795959.3, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEV6" }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 677569.5, "delta_head_equivalent": -74194.6, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 751764.1, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEZ6" }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 127424.6, "delta_head_equivalent": -7681.1, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 135105.8, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEG7" } ], "latest_activity_month": "2026-05-01", "latest_release_date": "2026-06-18", "prior_year_activity_month": "2025-05-01", "prior_year_release_date": "2025-06-20", "reconciliations": [ { "actual": 1704000.0, "check_id": "latest_bucket_sum_to_placements", "expected": 1704000.0, "passed": true, "residual_head": 0.0, "tolerance_head": 1000.0 }, { "actual": 1886000.0, "check_id": "prior_bucket_sum_to_placements", "expected": 1886000.0, "passed": true, "residual_head": 0.0, "tolerance_head": 1000.0 }, { "actual": -182000.0, "check_id": "contract_exposure_delta_to_bucket_delta", "expected": -182000.0, "passed": true, "residual_head": 0.0, "tolerance_head": 1.0 } ], "status": "PASS" }, "contract_response_models": { "continuous_or_stitched_prices_used": false, "contract_estimates": [ { "cohort_timing_exposure": { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 190245.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -10133.3, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 200378.6, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEQ6" }, "contract_id": "LE-2026-08", "horizons": [ { "conditional_fair_value": 248.425, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 245.4, 250.825 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d1", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": 0.374873, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-22" }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.676151, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -0.548147, 1.653802 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 248.65, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 242.6, 254.025 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d5", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": -0.273556, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-26" }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.765928, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.683544, 2.951848 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 249.55, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 240.2, 264.075 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d20", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": -8.206687, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-07-20" }, "predicted_response_pct": 1.131717, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -2.650467, 7.024054 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 251.75, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 242.55, 269.175 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d40", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "predicted_response_pct": 2.027405, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.702378, 9.086627 ], "status": "PASS" } ], "role": "near", "symbol": "LEQ6" }, { "cohort_timing_exposure": { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 706142.8, "delta_head_equivalent": -89816.5, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 795959.3, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEV6" }, "contract_id": "LE-2026-10", "horizons": [ { "conditional_fair_value": 241.825, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 239.2, 243.675 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d1", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": 0.531029, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-22" }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.721589, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -0.374333, 1.488104 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 242.075, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 236.45, 246.775 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d5", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": -0.322782, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-26" }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.81965, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.519832, 2.784357 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 242.9, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 233.525, 255.925 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d20", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": -6.997085, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-07-20" }, "predicted_response_pct": 1.16672, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -2.742707, 6.594272 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 245.025, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 236.95, 261.5 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d40", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "predicted_response_pct": 2.053093, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.30899, 8.914597 ], "status": "PASS" } ], "role": "mid", "symbol": "LEV6" }, { "cohort_timing_exposure": { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 677569.5, "delta_head_equivalent": -74194.6, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 751764.1, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEZ6" }, "contract_id": "LE-2026-12", "horizons": [ { "conditional_fair_value": 240.8, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 238.65, 242.325 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d1", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": 0.585468, 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Later-date corrections are excluded from the report-response panel so they cannot be paired with an already-observed original-report return path; displaced originals are not guaranteed recoverable for every historical USDA correction.", "historical_original_corrections_complete": false, "latest_event_excluded_from_training": true, "model_gate_is_not_operational_gate": true, "numeric_forecast_policy": "No estimate is emitted with insufficient prior history; no model estimate affects WOW or decisions.", "point_in_time_release_timestamps": true, "price_reference_is_official_settlement": false, "price_reference_timestamp_retained": false, "price_rows_filtered_to_as_of_cutoff": true, "price_rows_unique_by_date_contract": true }, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "system_quality_audit": { "accountability_status": "PARTIAL", "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "critical_gates": { "decision_isolation_gate": true, "immutable_registry_gate": true, "no_operational_promotion_gate": true, "no_predictive_skill_claim_gate": true, "overall_health_gate": true, "point_in_time_gate": true, "reconciliation_gate": true, "runtime_permission_probe_gate": true, "source_alignment_and_price_freshness_gate": true, "wow_isolation_gate": true }, "critical_gates_passed": true, "decision_effect": "NONE", "dimensions": [ { "dimension_id": "SOURCE_PROVENANCE", "earned": 15.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "At least eight unique structural sources have explicit non-stale freshness, observed-at values, and fingerprints", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Every base ledger row is identified, fingerprinted, and read-only", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Both required V2 sources are nonempty, read-only, and SHA-256 fingerprinted", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Base COF and V2 latest releases align, and the fixed-contract panel is current", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Base structural vintages parse strictly, checkpoint tail loss, and chain new semantic records", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 } ], "label": "Source provenance and semantic integrity", "status": "PASS", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "POINT_IN_TIME", "earned": 12.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Events and prices are filtered to the as-of cutoff", "max_points": 4.0, "passed": true, "points": 4.0 }, { "criterion": "Training labels complete before prediction and latest event is excluded", "max_points": 4.0, "passed": true, "points": 4.0 }, { "criterion": "As-released event timestamps are retained", "max_points": 4.0, "passed": true, "points": 4.0 }, { "criterion": "Daily price reference retains a final-bar timestamp", "max_points": 1.5, "passed": false, "points": 0 }, { "criterion": "Historical original/correction pairs are complete", "max_points": 1.5, "passed": false, "points": 0 } ], "label": "Point-in-time and leakage controls", "limitation": "Capped at 12/15: the daily panel lacks a retained final-bar timestamp and historical original/correction completeness is not guaranteed.", "status": "PARTIAL", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "RECONCILIATION", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "All base observations are typed and reconciliations recompute within explicit units/tolerances", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Placement cohort-to-contract reconciliations recompute within head tolerances", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Accounting and reconciliation", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 }, { "dimension_id": "CONTRACT_HORIZONS", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Fixed contracts are used without continuous stitching", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "A unique, fully estimated near/mid/deferred D1/D5/D20/D40 fixed-contract grid is present", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Contract and horizon specificity", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 }, { "dimension_id": "MODEL_GOVERNANCE", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Operational promotion is false", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 }, { "criterion": "Predictive edge remains explicitly unproven", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 }, { "criterion": "Calibration remains explicitly incomplete", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 }, { "criterion": "Pricing authority and execution points are zero", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 } ], "label": "Model governance without promotion leakage", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 }, { "dimension_id": "FORWARD_ACCOUNTABILITY", "earned": 9.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Append-only registry freeze hashes validate", "max_points": 2.0, "passed": true, "points": 2.0 }, { "criterion": "Prior sibling checkpoint detects single-file tail loss", "max_points": 1.0, "passed": true, "points": 1.0 }, { "criterion": "An external protected/WORM ledger anchor exists", "max_points": 1.0, "passed": false, "points": 0 }, { "criterion": "Forecast IDs are deterministic and issuance is deduplicated", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Open and matured-unresolved outcomes remain explicit and unscored", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "At least 36 independent forward report releases and 10 unique releases per claimed horizon are resolved", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": false, "points": 0 } ], "label": "Immutable forward forecast accountability", "limitation": "0 correlated forecast cells across 0 independent report releases are resolved. Same-report roles, horizons, and revisions do not inflate the independent-release threshold. The sibling checkpoint is best-effort and no external WORM anchor exists; accountability is partial and predictive profitability is not graded.", "status": "PARTIAL", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "OPERATIONAL_ISOLATION", "earned": 15.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Base radar has no decision or WOW effect", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Registry writes only below the sibling radar root and the required runtime permission probe passes", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "No live-trade use, auto-promotion, or execution points", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Operational and WOW Command isolation", "status": "PASS", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "TRANSPARENCY", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Complete model card states purpose, target, data, leakage controls, limitations, and governance", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Scorecard names a frozen baseline and baseline-relative primary metric", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Model-card and baseline transparency", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 } ], "eligibility": { "operational_promotion_eligible": false, "predictive_profitability_grade_eligible": false, "status": "ELIGIBLE_SYSTEM_QUALITY_ONLY", "system_quality_grade_eligible": true }, "explicit_exclusions": [ "predictive profitability", "tradable edge", "live execution quality", "risk-adjusted returns" ], "max_points": 0, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "profitability_claim": false, "rubric_id": "ALPHA_SYSTEM_QUALITY_NON_PROFITABILITY_V1", "schema_version": "alpha.system_quality_audit.v1", "scope": "SYSTEM_DESIGN_DATA_INTEGRITY_GOVERNANCE_AND_ACCOUNTABILITY", "score": { "earned": 91.0, "grade": "A-", "maximum": 100.0, "normalized_10": 9.1 }, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "theses": [ { "active_alert_ids": [ "later_fed_pipeline_tightening", "weight_offsets_head_decline", "trade_cushions_domestic_availability" ], "confirmation": "Later marketings and slaughter tighten after placement cohorts roll forward while meat cushions fade.", "contradictions": [ "cof_on_feed_head", "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs" ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "cof_placements_head", "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "beef_exports_ytd_cwe" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "current through 18 months", "invalidation": "Placements recover or meat availability remains ample enough to prevent the expected tightening.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "PRIMARY_WORKING_HYPOTHESIS", "state": "TIGHTENING_LATER_WITH_MEAT_CUSHIONS_NOW", "thesis_id": "later_head_tightness_near_meat_cushion", "title": "Later fed-cattle tightness, buffered near-term beef availability" }, { "confirmation": "Weights, imports, dairy-beef supply, or weak exports continue replacing domestic fed-cattle tonnage.", "contradictions": [ "cof_placements_head", "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots" ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "current through 12 months", "invalidation": "Weights normalize and trade cushions reverse before placements recover.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "COMPETING_HYPOTHESIS", "thesis_id": "meat_availability_outlasts_head_shortage", "title": "Beef availability stays adequate longer than cattle head counts imply" }, { "confirmation": "Verified capacity exits or sustained shift reductions tighten the hook-to-cattle balance.", "contradictions": [ "No verified plant closure is inferred from margin data alone." ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "cof_marketings_head", "weekly_fi_slaughter_head" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "3-24 months", "invalidation": "Margins recover and observed capacity remains stable.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "COMPETING_HYPOTHESIS", "thesis_id": "capacity_rationalization_changes_leverage", "title": "Processing-capacity rationalization changes packer and feedyard leverage" } ], "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "validation": { "all_units_typed": true, "decision_effect": "NONE", "failed_reconciliations": [], "futures_pricing_model_active": false, "maximum_execution_points": 0, "missing_core_metrics": [], "missing_inputs": [], "numeric_forecast_policy": "No forward numeric value is emitted until an independently validated model supplies it.", "point_in_time_only": true, "promotion_gate_passed": false, "semantic_vintage_chain_validation": "PASS_WITH_LEGACY_PREFIX", "semantic_vintage_checkpoint_prior_state": "PASS", "semantic_vintage_checkpoint_validation": "PASS", "semantic_vintage_external_anchor_present": false, "semantic_vintage_parse_strict": true, "semantic_vintages": true, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "vintage_record_hash": "19c3f737a82a3b7de5730ebb222631ac52c93fcee21d8a4cccb2671470a4298b", "warnings": [] }, { "balance_sheet": { "as_of": "2026-07-20", "periods": [ { "period": "Current feedlot inventory", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current fed-cattle inventory.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 32, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Cattle on feed", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_on_feed_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "feedlot_inventory", "unit": "head", "value": 11682000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": 2.0 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Incoming placement pipeline", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Incoming fed-cattle pipeline.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 32, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Monthly placements", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_placements_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "incoming_pipeline", "unit": "head", "value": 1704000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -10.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 32, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements under 600 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_less_than_600_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 320000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 32, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 600-699 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_600_699_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 240000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 32, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 700-799 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_700_799_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 400000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 32, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 800-899 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_800_899_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 444000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 32, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 900-999 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_900_999_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 225000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 32, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 1,000+ lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_1000_lbs_and_greater", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 75000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "USDA ERS-derived feeder-cattle reservoir outside feedlots; lower inventory can constrain future placements.", "freshness": { "cadence": "Quarterly USDA ERS feeder supply", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Feeder cattle outside feedlots", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_FEEDER_SUPPLY" ], "stage": "feeder_supply", "unit": "thousand_head", "value": 18776.97, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-04-01", "yoy_pct": 2.2631 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Fed-cattle outflow and meat production", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Fed-cattle outflow toward slaughter.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 32, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Monthly marketings", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_marketings_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "fed_outflow", "unit": "head", "value": 1551000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -12.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Non-marketing feedlot disappearance.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 32, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Other disappearance", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_other_disappearance_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "fed_outflow", "unit": "head", "value": 55000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -11.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Observed weekly cattle head throughput.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-20T21:30:02", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Weekly federally inspected slaughter", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "slaughter", "unit": "head", "value": 525000.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "yoy_pct": -7.4074 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Pounds produced per slaughtered animal.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-20T21:30:02", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Average dressed weight", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "yield", "unit": "lb_per_head", "value": 887.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "yoy_pct": 2.662 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Observed weekly beef output combines head throughput and carcass yield.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-20T21:30:02", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Weekly beef production", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "meat_output", "unit": "million_lb", "value": 464.5, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "yoy_pct": -5.0491 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Counterfactual pounds effect holding year-ago dressed weight constant.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-20T21:30:02", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Head-count contribution to weekly production change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_head_count_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "production_bridge", "unit": "million_lb", "value": -36.288, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Incremental pounds attributable to the dressed-weight change at current slaughter.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-20T21:30:02", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Dressed-weight contribution to weekly production change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "production_bridge", "unit": "million_lb", "value": 12.075, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "yoy_pct": null } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Trade and domestic availability", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Imported beef adds to domestic carcass-weight-equivalent availability.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date beef imports", "metadata": { "ytd_comparable": true, "ytd_through_month": 5 }, "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 2754566570.58, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": 9.9 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Exported beef removes product from domestic availability while reflecting foreign demand.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date beef exports", "metadata": { "ytd_comparable": true, "ytd_through_month": 5 }, "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 978518541.27, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": -17.2 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Imports less exports; this is a product-availability measure, not a fed-cattle-equivalent count.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date net beef imports", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 1776048029.31, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": -1.7342, "economic_read": "Weekly wholesale movement; descriptive context only because its futures validation gate has not passed.", "freshness": { "expected_latest_tuesday": "2026-07-14", "last_refresh_time_ct": "2026-07-16T06:59:29.597871-05:00", "latest_report_date": "2026-07-14", "reason": "Canonical Tuesday afternoon LM_XB403 history is current and complete.", "state": "PASS", "status_error": null, "status_report_date": "2026-07-14", "status_source_fingerprint": "2027cdf8ed4a7c48d5672b274003150a50154cd4402aaba529e4c6a090a53c4d", "status_source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/boxed_beef/boxed_beef_tuesday_history_status.json" }, "label": "Tuesday Choice/Select average weekly change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "tuesday_cutout_average_change_pct", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_BOXED_TUESDAY" ], "stage": "wholesale_demand", "unit": "percent", "value": -1.7342, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-14", "yoy_pct": null } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Capacity, cash, herd, and policy context", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Standardized box-minus-live operating-spread proxy; not company net income and not a futures timing signal.", "freshness": { "business_release_lag": 0, "calendar_age_days": 0, "expected_report_date": "2026-07-20", "holiday_calendar_note": "Weekday-aware; USDA holiday exceptions may produce WATCH until the next release.", "reason": "Latest expected weekday USDA CEI report is present.", "release_cutoff_ct": "15:45", "report_date": "2026-07-20", "state": "PASS", "status": "PASS", "weekend_aware": true }, "label": "USDA CEI gross packer spread", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_CEI" ], "stage": "processing_economics", "unit": "usd_per_cwt_carcass", "value": 0.2803, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-20", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current operating status constrains or restores feeder-cattle inflow; duration and price impact are not assumed.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Southern livestock port status", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_APHIS" ], "stage": "biological_policy", "unit": "status", "value": "CLOSED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-16", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current cash transmission and feedyard/packer leverage context.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "pass_max_days": 2, "state": "PASS", "watch_max_days": 5 }, "label": "Blended live cash cattle", "metadata": { "change_vs_last_week_usd_per_cwt": -9.73 }, "metric_id": "blended_live_cash", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_CASH" ], "stage": "cash_transmission", "unit": "usd_per_cwt_live", "value": 234.18, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-20", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Replacement intentions inform herd rebuilding capacity; they do not guarantee retained females or calf-crop growth.", "freshness": { "cadence": "Annual USDA ERS herd replacement", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Intended heifer replacements", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "intended_heifer_replacements", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_HERD_REPLACEMENT" ], "stage": "breeding_herd", "unit": "thousand_head", "value": 8618.8, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-01-01", "yoy_pct": 0.361 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" } ], "reconciliations": [ { "actual": 1704000.0, "check_id": "cof_placement_buckets", "expected": 1704000.0, "name": "Placement weight buckets sum to placements", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 1000.0, "unit": "head" }, { "actual": 11682000.0, "check_id": "cof_head_flow", "expected": 11682000.0, "name": "Opening inventory plus placements less outflows equals closing inventory", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 1000.0, "unit": "head" }, { "actual": 464.5, "check_id": "weekly_production_bridge", "expected": 464.98699999999997, "name": "Year-ago production plus head effect plus weight effect reconciles to current production", "passed": true, "residual": -0.487, "tolerance": 2.3225000000000002, "unit": "million_lb" }, { "actual": 1776048029.31, "check_id": "net_trade_identity", "expected": 1776048029.31, "name": "Imports less exports equals net imports", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 0.01, "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent" } ], "status": "RECONCILED", "summary": { "beef_supply_change_pct": -5.0491, "dressed_weight_yoy_pct": 2.662, "exports_ytd_change_pct": -17.2, "imports_ytd_change_pct": 9.9, "observation_count": 24, "reconciliation_count": 4, "reconciliation_pass_count": 4, "slaughter_yoy_pct": -7.4074, "source_count": 9, "source_ledger_row_count": 9, "status": "RECONCILED", "weight_offset_of_head_decline_pct": 33.28 }, "unit_policy": "No cattle-head-to-beef-pound conversion is made without an exposed observed weight or typed derivation." }, "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "change_alerts": [ { "alert_id": "later_fed_pipeline_tightening", "counter_evidence": "Current cattle on feed are +2.0% YoY.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "TIGHTENING_LATER", "horizon": "3-18 months", "invalidation": "Placements and feeder availability normalize, or the livestock-border constraint is formally removed.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "WATCH", "summary": "The later fed-cattle pipeline is tightening, but this is not a futures signal.", "triggers": [ { "label": "Placements -10.0% YoY", "metric_id": "cof_placements_head" }, { "label": "Southern livestock ports closed", "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports" } ] }, { "alert_id": "weight_offsets_head_decline", "counter_evidence": "Reported weekly beef production remains -5.0% YoY.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "MEAT_CUSHION", "horizon": "current to 3 months", "invalidation": "Dressed weights stop offsetting lower head throughput.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "ACTIVE", "summary": "Heavier carcasses are replacing part of the beef tonnage lost to lower slaughter.", "triggers": [ { "label": "Slaughter -7.4% YoY", "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head" }, { "label": "Dressed weight +2.7% YoY", "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs" } ] }, { "alert_id": "trade_cushions_domestic_availability", "counter_evidence": "Product mix and imported lean are not fully interchangeable with Choice fed-beef cuts.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "DOMESTIC_AVAILABILITY_CUSHION", "horizon": "current to 6 months", "invalidation": "Imports reverse lower and exports recover enough to remove the net availability cushion.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "ACTIVE", "summary": "Trade flows are cushioning domestic beef availability despite tighter cattle head counts.", "triggers": [ { "label": "YTD imports +9.9%", "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe" }, { "label": "YTD exports -17.2%", "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe" } ] } ], "composer_contract": { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "composer_version": "alpha.structural_radar.composer.v2.0.0", "decision_effect": "NONE", "max_points": 0, "mode": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "conditional_contract_estimates": { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "contract_estimates": [ { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 245.4, 250.825 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 248.425, "contract_role": "near", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-06-19T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d1", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": 0.374873, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-22" }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 246.75, "predicted_response_pct": 0.676151, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-08", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -0.548147, 1.653802 ], "symbol": "LEQ6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 242.6, 254.025 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 248.65, "contract_role": "near", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-06-25T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d5", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": -0.273556, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-26" }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 246.75, "predicted_response_pct": 0.765928, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-08", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.683544, 2.951848 ], "symbol": "LEQ6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 240.2, 264.075 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 249.55, "contract_role": "near", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-07-16T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d20", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": -8.206687, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-07-20" }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 246.75, "predicted_response_pct": 1.131717, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-08", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ 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"conditional_report_response_price": 241.675, "contract_role": "deferred", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-07-16T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d20", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": -6.743335, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-07-20" }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 239.125, "predicted_response_pct": 1.06329, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-12", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.805714, 6.442563 ], "symbol": "LEZ6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 232.9, 258.5 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 243.8, "contract_role": "deferred", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-08-13T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d40", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "status": "OPEN_OR_NOT_YET_OBSERVABLE", "target_date": null }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 239.125, "predicted_response_pct": 1.958683, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-12", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -2.607012, 8.100815 ], "symbol": "LEZ6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" } ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "definition": "Conditional fixed-contract COF report-response estimates, never intrinsic fair value or 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at least 36 independent genuinely forward report releases and at least 10 unique releases per claimed horizon; correlated role-by-horizon cells and same-report revisions do not count as independent releases. 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"training_cutoff": "Strictly before each prediction release; every included label must also have completed before that release.", "uncertainty": "Residual 10th/90th-percentile response interval where enough walk-forward residuals exist.", "validation_method": "Expanding-window point-in-time walk-forward", "validation_protocol": "Expanding-window, point-in-time walk-forward evaluation against an expanding-mean diagnostic baseline." }, "module": "ALPHA_STRUCTURAL_RADAR_V1", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "previous_vintage_record_hash": "19c3f737a82a3b7de5730ebb222631ac52c93fcee21d8a4cccb2671470a4298b", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "revision_ledger": [ { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_on_feed_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_placements_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_marketings_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_other_disappearance_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_less_than_600_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_600_699_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_700_799_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_800_899_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_900_999_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_1000_lbs_and_greater", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_head_count_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-20" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-16" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "blended_live_cash", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-20" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "tuesday_cutout_average_change_pct", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-14" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-04-01" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "intended_heifer_replacements", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-01-01" } ], "schema_version": "1.0.0", "semantic_fingerprint": "07738341a9dadf6d595a8fa0496f64a6c0174bc4d05ce2be6a3ba89300c18a99", "separation_contract": { "auto_promotion_path": false, "calls_decision_components": false, "official_decision_effect": "NONE", "radar_write_root": "/opt/alpha_structural_radar", "reads_decision_outputs": false, "source_root_read_only": "/opt/alpha_current", "wow_command_effect": "NONE", "write_allowlist": [ "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs/structural_radar_status.json", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs/structural_radar_history.json", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/data/structural_radar/vintages.jsonl", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/state/structural_radar.lock" ], "writes_decision_outputs": false }, "source_ledger": [ { "error": null, "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 32, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-06-18", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "d384b2f0d89c2dee03cae284bfc06d330d8a391f070bbdb6e9c5bde43440f07e", "source_id": "USDA_NASS_COF", "source_module": "cattle_on_feed", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/cattle_on_feed_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-05", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "b56a1d515893924283b8424909d2ed3723e68dc6935d2f643f96144a39bcc681", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_TRADE", "source_module": "import_exports", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/import_exports_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "business_release_lag": 0, "calendar_age_days": 0, "expected_report_date": "2026-07-20", "holiday_calendar_note": "Weekday-aware; USDA holiday exceptions may produce WATCH until the next release.", "reason": "Latest expected weekday USDA CEI report is present.", "release_cutoff_ct": "15:45", "report_date": "2026-07-20", "state": "PASS", "status": "PASS", "weekend_aware": true }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-20 after 15:30 CT", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "927547923b142723b7e67154121c185430aadbeccc20767ab8d4a9fc22601f64", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_CEI", "source_module": "ALPHA_PACKER_ECONOMICS_V1", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/packer_economics_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-16", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "1880cd54e168ea2bb1eeace010f34cbe7efb8e7e6cf5066a427582efd9bead59", "source_id": "USDA_APHIS", "source_module": "animal_health", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/animal_health_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "pass_max_days": 2, "state": "PASS", "watch_max_days": 5 }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-20 daily publication", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "2fb230821bff187f0f94753b8c8868161dc80d9f3ed69063609ba7e48f62d01e", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_CASH", "source_module": "cash_cattle", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/cash_cattle_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "expected_latest_tuesday": "2026-07-14", "last_refresh_time_ct": "2026-07-16T06:59:29.597871-05:00", "latest_report_date": "2026-07-14", "reason": "Canonical Tuesday afternoon LM_XB403 history is current and complete.", "state": "PASS", "status_error": null, "status_report_date": "2026-07-14", "status_source_fingerprint": "2027cdf8ed4a7c48d5672b274003150a50154cd4402aaba529e4c6a090a53c4d", "status_source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/boxed_beef/boxed_beef_tuesday_history_status.json" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-14", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "4fc7f01ec6b4531a1c3c93384b3608a0938fc9fbbb97046828f45151e95b0563", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_BOXED_TUESDAY", "source_module": "boxed_beef_tuesday_history", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/boxed_beef/boxed_beef_tuesday_history.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-20T21:30:02", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-17", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "9c42c9d43ce7d084c01cf6d75aec3f3725617a58cccf49d76a4e53a8f7991c41", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT", "source_module": "weekly_kill_weights", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/weekly_kill_weights.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "cadence": "Quarterly USDA ERS feeder supply", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-04-01", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "32d71256ffb42497325ea439db5ed6a00752be99019c9ab73562950ad87f581b", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_FEEDER_SUPPLY", "source_module": "ers_feeder_supply", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/ers_livestock_domestic_data/livestock-data-machine-readable-files/FeederCattleSuppliesOutsideFeedlots.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "DERIVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "cadence": "Annual USDA ERS herd replacement", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-01-01", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "281e3d55e23156459116f1b342105d36eb78c6d3295597ee52f60c846528960d", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_HERD_REPLACEMENT", "source_module": "ers_heifer_replacements", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/ers_livestock_domestic_data/livestock-data-machine-readable-files/heifersenteringherd.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" } ], "status": "PASS", "structural_futures_v2": { "cohort_timing_bridge": { "assumptions": { "contract_mapping": "Each possible market-ready day maps to the nearest still-unexpired Feb/Apr/Jun/Aug/Oct/Dec Live Cattle contract midpoint. Expiry uses the last weekday as an approximation and does not encode exchange holidays.", "days_on_feed": { "1000_lbs_and_greater": [ 50, 110 ], "600_699_lbs": [ 170, 230 ], "700_799_lbs": [ 140, 200 ], "800_899_lbs": [ 110, 170 ], "900_999_lbs": [ 80, 140 ], "less_than_600_lbs": [ 190, 250 ] }, "exposure_weighting": "Placement day and days-on-feed are modeled as independent discrete uniform assumptions, then convolved. These are scenario weights, not empirical probabilities.", "interpretation": "Head-equivalent exposure is a timing bridge, not deliverable supply, open interest, fair value, or a price forecast.", "placement_date_uncertainty": "Earliest uses activity-month start; latest uses activity-month end." }, "buckets": [ { "bucket_id": "less_than_600_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 209836.1, "delta_head_equivalent": -9836.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 219672.1, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.655738 }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 110163.9, "delta_head_equivalent": -5163.9, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 115327.9, "symbol": "LEG7", "window_day_share": 0.344262 } ], "current_head": 320000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 250, "minimum": 190 }, "delta_head": -15000, "delta_pct": -4.478, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-11-07", "latest": "2027-02-05" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-11-25", "p50": "2026-12-22", "p90": "2027-01-18", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 335000 }, { "bucket_id": "600_699_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 11549.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -1684.3, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 13233.7, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.048123 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 211189.8, "delta_head_equivalent": -30798.5, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 241988.4, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.879958 }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 17260.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -2517.2, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 19777.9, "symbol": "LEG7", "window_day_share": 0.07192 } ], "current_head": 240000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 230, "minimum": 170 }, "delta_head": -35000, "delta_pct": -12.727, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-10-18", "latest": "2027-01-16" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-11-05", "p50": "2026-12-02", "p90": "2026-12-29", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 275000 }, { "bucket_id": "700_799_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 183606.6, "delta_head_equivalent": -22950.8, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 206557.4, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.459016 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 216393.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -27049.2, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 243442.6, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.540984 } ], "current_head": 400000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 200, "minimum": 140 }, "delta_head": -50000, "delta_pct": -11.111, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-09-18", "latest": "2026-12-17" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-10-06", "p50": "2026-11-02", "p90": "2026-11-29", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 450000 }, { "bucket_id": "800_899_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 21366.5, "delta_head_equivalent": -3464.8, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 24831.3, "symbol": "LEQ6", "window_day_share": 0.048123 }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 382483.3, "delta_head_equivalent": -62024.3, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 444507.7, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.861449 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 40150.2, "delta_head_equivalent": -6510.8, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 46661.0, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.090428 } ], "current_head": 444000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 170, "minimum": 110 }, "delta_head": -72000, "delta_pct": -13.953, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-08-19", "latest": "2026-11-17" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-09-06", "p50": "2026-10-03", "p90": "2026-10-30", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 516000 }, { "bucket_id": "900_999_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 103278.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -2295.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 105573.8, "symbol": "LEQ6", "window_day_share": 0.459016 }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 121721.3, "delta_head_equivalent": -2704.9, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 124426.2, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.540984 } ], "current_head": 225000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 140, "minimum": 80 }, "delta_head": -5000, "delta_pct": -2.174, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-07-20", "latest": "2026-10-18" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-08-07", "p50": "2026-09-03", "p90": "2026-09-30", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 230000 }, { "bucket_id": "1000_lbs_and_greater", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-06", "current_head_equivalent": 2617.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -174.5, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 2792.2, "symbol": "LEM6", "window_day_share": 0.034902 }, { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 65600.2, "delta_head_equivalent": -4373.3, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 69973.6, "symbol": "LEQ6", "window_day_share": 0.874669 }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 6782.1, "delta_head_equivalent": -452.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 7234.3, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.090428 } ], "current_head": 75000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 110, "minimum": 50 }, "delta_head": -5000, "delta_pct": -6.25, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-06-20", "latest": "2026-09-18" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-07-08", "p50": "2026-08-04", "p90": "2026-08-31", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 80000 } ], "comparison": "SAME_ACTIVITY_MONTH_AS_RELEASED_YEAR_OVER_YEAR", "contracts": [ { "contract_month": "2026-06", "current_head_equivalent": 2617.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -174.5, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 2792.2, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEM6" }, { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 190245.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -10133.3, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 200378.6, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEQ6" }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 706142.8, "delta_head_equivalent": -89816.5, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 795959.3, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEV6" }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 677569.5, "delta_head_equivalent": -74194.6, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 751764.1, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEZ6" }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 127424.6, "delta_head_equivalent": -7681.1, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 135105.8, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEG7" } ], "latest_activity_month": "2026-05-01", "latest_release_date": "2026-06-18", "prior_year_activity_month": "2025-05-01", "prior_year_release_date": "2025-06-20", "reconciliations": [ { "actual": 1704000.0, "check_id": "latest_bucket_sum_to_placements", "expected": 1704000.0, "passed": true, "residual_head": 0.0, "tolerance_head": 1000.0 }, { "actual": 1886000.0, "check_id": "prior_bucket_sum_to_placements", "expected": 1886000.0, "passed": true, "residual_head": 0.0, "tolerance_head": 1000.0 }, { "actual": -182000.0, "check_id": "contract_exposure_delta_to_bucket_delta", "expected": -182000.0, "passed": true, "residual_head": 0.0, "tolerance_head": 1.0 } ], "status": "PASS" }, "contract_response_models": { "continuous_or_stitched_prices_used": false, "contract_estimates": [ { "cohort_timing_exposure": { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 190245.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -10133.3, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 200378.6, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEQ6" }, "contract_id": "LE-2026-08", "horizons": [ { "conditional_fair_value": 248.425, 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"UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "fair_value_definition": "Same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close multiplied by the estimated report-response return; not an official settlement, intrinsic value, or promoted forecast.", "feature_names": [ "on_feed_yoy_delta_pp", "placements_yoy_delta_pp", "marketings_yoy_delta_pp", "season_sin", "season_cos" ], "fitted_artifact": { "artifact_sha256": "7e4c7d90dacb4a2a4364f1162a2ceb59b0d98f66ea9d9cb620e960f0c21dcf5c", "coefficients_intercept_first": [ 1.637046266685, -0.887110174762, -0.195111224833, -0.317762161399, 0.50808229049, -0.293302016189 ], "feature_means": [ -0.32, -1.693333333333, -1.506666666667, 0.044880338717, 0.031547005384 ], "feature_names": [ "on_feed_yoy_delta_pp", "placements_yoy_delta_pp", "marketings_yoy_delta_pp", "season_sin", "season_cos" ], "feature_scales": [ 2.104978226332, 8.176345285164, 8.314442588385, 0.700941572836, 0.711105796009 ], "ridge_penalty": 4.0, "training_row_count": 75, "training_row_identity_sha256": "e66dad219c983fde988e04a569aa3adc0fc81d5e37247d97f8854df408c32f52" }, "gate_checks": { "beats_zero_return_baseline": true, "directional_accuracy_at_least_52pct": true, "interval_80_coverage_65_to_90pct": false, "mae_skill_at_least_5pct": false, "n_oos_at_least_36": true, "prediction_correlation_at_least_0_10": false }, "horizon": "d40", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "max_training_label_date": "2026-06-15", "min_train_events": 24, "model_version": "cof-fixed-contract-ridge-v2.1.0", "n_train": 75, "pre_report_close": 239.125, "predicted_response_pct": 1.958683, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-12", "prediction_release_date": "2026-06-18", "prediction_symbol": "LEZ6", "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "research_only": true, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -2.607012, 8.100815 ], "role": "deferred", "status": "PASS", "strictly_prior_training": true, "training_max_release_date": "2026-04-17", "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "walk_forward": { "baseline_mae_return_pct": 3.632719, "directional_accuracy": 0.64, "interval_80_coverage": 0.6, "interval_coverage_n": 35, "mae_return_pct": 3.544136, "mae_skill_vs_expanding_mean": 0.024385, "mae_skill_vs_zero_return": 0.107422, "n_oos": 50, "prediction_correlation": -0.02018, "zero_return_baseline_mae_pct": 3.970674 }, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" } ], "multiplicity_policy": "Twelve role-by-horizon candidates are exposed together; no familywise or FDR gate has passed, so operational promotion is prohibited.", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "statistical_gate_pass_count": 0, "target_definition": "Nth actual later RTH last-trade close versus same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close before the after-close COF release; these are not official CME settlements." }, "decision_effect": "NONE", "errors": [], "headline": "Placement cohorts are mapped to contract windows; price estimates remain conditional and research-only.", "live": false, "max_points": 0, "mode": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "module": "ALPHA_STRUCTURAL_FUTURES_V2", "point_in_time_events": { "as_of_cutoff_ct": "2026-07-21T05:50:29.951239-05:00", "consensus_surprise_available": false, "consensus_surprise_used": false, "event_count": 114, "feature_policy": "Only values printed in the as-released row plus activity-month season terms are features.", "latest_event": { "activity_month": "2026-05-01", "availability_rule": "Feature values become available only at the recorded USDA release timestamp.", "event_id": "795942", "observations": [ { "known_at_ct": "2026-06-18T14:00:00-05:00", "observation_id": "on_feed_yoy_delta_pp", "unit": "percentage_point", "value": 2.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED_RELEASE" }, { "known_at_ct": "2026-06-18T14:00:00-05:00", "observation_id": "placements_yoy_delta_pp", "unit": "percentage_point", "value": -10.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED_RELEASE" }, { "known_at_ct": "2026-06-18T14:00:00-05:00", "observation_id": "marketings_yoy_delta_pp", "unit": "percentage_point", "value": -12.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED_RELEASE" }, { "known_at_ct": "2026-06-18T14:00:00-05:00", "observation_id": "season_sin", "unit": "cyclical_component", "value": 0.5, "value_kind": "DERIVED_FROM_ACTIVITY_MONTH" }, { "known_at_ct": "2026-06-18T14:00:00-05:00", "observation_id": "season_cos", "unit": "cyclical_component", "value": -0.866025, "value_kind": "DERIVED_FROM_ACTIVITY_MONTH" } ], "provenance": { "source_sha256": "da477404f359a36b9d2b412f0dfdeaa4f3b05596c898c0655184124228fa9fbf", "source_url": "https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795942/cofd0626.txt" }, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "release_revision_id": "795942@2026-06-18T14:00:00-05:00", "release_timestamp_ct": "2026-06-18T14:00:00-05:00", "release_timestamp_kind": "RECORDED_SOURCE_TIMESTAMP", "research_only": true, "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false } }, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "research_only": true, "schema_version": "alpha.structural_futures.v2", "semantic_fingerprint": "0c4bc27df25ec9e55b81708c4375b586a600f5fbbf100cc224a3895442142a36", "source_ledger": [ { "path": "/opt/alpha_current/data/cattle_on_feed/report_events.csv", "read_only": true, "rows": 114, "sha256": "8c9fa84f4a2ce005f1a3e636a6a01f0051000c3b69de93c11e649ab753fa166b", "source_id": "USDA_NASS_COF_AS_RELEASED" }, { "path": "/opt/alpha_current/data/cattle_on_feed/le_fixed_ohlcv_1d.parquet", "read_only": true, "rows": 14288, "sha256": "4ceb921a30b840aba9361a576955165c8a246b8fff54c850019c402c75c204d4", "source_id": "DATABENTO_LE_FIXED_CONTRACT_DAILY" } ], "status": "PASS", "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "validation": { "all_training_labels_completed_before_prediction": true, "cohort_reconciliations_passed": true, "corrections_after_response_anchor_excluded": true, "data_status": { "event_rows": 114, "first_event_date": "2017-01-27", "fixed_contract_rows": 14288, "latest_event_date": "2026-06-18", "latest_event_price_reference_available": true, "price_first_date": "2020-01-02", "price_last_date": "2026-07-20", "response_panel_rows": 231 }, "events_filtered_to_as_of_cutoff": true, "historical_correction_policy": "Recorded same-date revisions are cutoff-aware. Later-date corrections are excluded from the report-response panel so they cannot be paired with an already-observed original-report return path; displaced originals are not guaranteed recoverable for every historical USDA correction.", "historical_original_corrections_complete": false, "latest_event_excluded_from_training": true, "model_gate_is_not_operational_gate": true, "numeric_forecast_policy": "No estimate is emitted with insufficient prior history; no model estimate affects WOW or decisions.", "point_in_time_release_timestamps": true, "price_reference_is_official_settlement": false, "price_reference_timestamp_retained": false, "price_rows_filtered_to_as_of_cutoff": true, "price_rows_unique_by_date_contract": true }, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "system_quality_audit": { "accountability_status": "PARTIAL", "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "critical_gates": { "decision_isolation_gate": true, "immutable_registry_gate": true, "no_operational_promotion_gate": true, "no_predictive_skill_claim_gate": true, "overall_health_gate": true, "point_in_time_gate": true, "reconciliation_gate": true, "runtime_permission_probe_gate": true, "source_alignment_and_price_freshness_gate": true, "wow_isolation_gate": true }, "critical_gates_passed": true, "decision_effect": "NONE", "dimensions": [ { "dimension_id": "SOURCE_PROVENANCE", "earned": 15.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "At least eight unique structural sources have explicit non-stale freshness, observed-at values, and fingerprints", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Every base ledger row is identified, fingerprinted, and read-only", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Both required V2 sources are nonempty, read-only, and SHA-256 fingerprinted", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Base COF and V2 latest releases align, and the fixed-contract panel is current", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Base structural vintages parse strictly, checkpoint tail loss, and chain new semantic records", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 } ], "label": "Source provenance and semantic integrity", "status": "PASS", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "POINT_IN_TIME", "earned": 12.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Events and prices are filtered to the as-of cutoff", "max_points": 4.0, "passed": true, "points": 4.0 }, { "criterion": "Training labels complete before prediction and latest event is excluded", "max_points": 4.0, "passed": true, "points": 4.0 }, { "criterion": "As-released event timestamps are retained", "max_points": 4.0, "passed": true, "points": 4.0 }, { "criterion": "Daily price reference retains a final-bar timestamp", "max_points": 1.5, "passed": false, "points": 0 }, { "criterion": "Historical original/correction pairs are complete", "max_points": 1.5, "passed": false, "points": 0 } ], "label": "Point-in-time and leakage controls", "limitation": "Capped at 12/15: the daily panel lacks a retained final-bar timestamp and historical original/correction completeness is not guaranteed.", "status": "PARTIAL", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "RECONCILIATION", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "All base observations are typed and reconciliations recompute within explicit units/tolerances", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Placement cohort-to-contract reconciliations recompute within head tolerances", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Accounting and reconciliation", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 }, { "dimension_id": "CONTRACT_HORIZONS", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Fixed contracts are used without continuous stitching", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "A unique, fully estimated near/mid/deferred D1/D5/D20/D40 fixed-contract grid is present", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Contract and horizon specificity", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 }, { "dimension_id": "MODEL_GOVERNANCE", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Operational promotion is false", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 }, { "criterion": "Predictive edge remains explicitly unproven", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 }, { "criterion": "Calibration remains explicitly incomplete", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 }, { "criterion": "Pricing authority and execution points are zero", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 } ], "label": "Model governance without promotion leakage", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 }, { "dimension_id": "FORWARD_ACCOUNTABILITY", "earned": 9.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Append-only registry freeze hashes validate", "max_points": 2.0, "passed": true, "points": 2.0 }, { "criterion": "Prior sibling checkpoint detects single-file tail loss", "max_points": 1.0, "passed": true, "points": 1.0 }, { "criterion": "An external protected/WORM ledger anchor exists", "max_points": 1.0, "passed": false, "points": 0 }, { "criterion": "Forecast IDs are deterministic and issuance is deduplicated", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Open and matured-unresolved outcomes remain explicit and unscored", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "At least 36 independent forward report releases and 10 unique releases per claimed horizon are resolved", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": false, "points": 0 } ], "label": "Immutable forward forecast accountability", "limitation": "0 correlated forecast cells across 0 independent report releases are resolved. Same-report roles, horizons, and revisions do not inflate the independent-release threshold. The sibling checkpoint is best-effort and no external WORM anchor exists; accountability is partial and predictive profitability is not graded.", "status": "PARTIAL", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "OPERATIONAL_ISOLATION", "earned": 15.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Base radar has no decision or WOW effect", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Registry writes only below the sibling radar root and the required runtime permission probe passes", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "No live-trade use, auto-promotion, or execution points", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Operational and WOW Command isolation", "status": "PASS", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "TRANSPARENCY", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Complete model card states purpose, target, data, leakage controls, limitations, and governance", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Scorecard names a frozen baseline and baseline-relative primary metric", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Model-card and baseline transparency", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 } ], "eligibility": { "operational_promotion_eligible": false, "predictive_profitability_grade_eligible": false, "status": "ELIGIBLE_SYSTEM_QUALITY_ONLY", "system_quality_grade_eligible": true }, "explicit_exclusions": [ "predictive profitability", "tradable edge", "live execution quality", "risk-adjusted returns" ], "max_points": 0, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "profitability_claim": false, "rubric_id": "ALPHA_SYSTEM_QUALITY_NON_PROFITABILITY_V1", "schema_version": "alpha.system_quality_audit.v1", "scope": "SYSTEM_DESIGN_DATA_INTEGRITY_GOVERNANCE_AND_ACCOUNTABILITY", "score": { "earned": 91.0, "grade": "A-", "maximum": 100.0, "normalized_10": 9.1 }, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "theses": [ { "active_alert_ids": [ "later_fed_pipeline_tightening", "weight_offsets_head_decline", "trade_cushions_domestic_availability" ], "confirmation": "Later marketings and slaughter tighten after placement cohorts roll forward while meat cushions fade.", "contradictions": [ "cof_on_feed_head", "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs" ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "cof_placements_head", "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "beef_exports_ytd_cwe" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "current through 18 months", "invalidation": "Placements recover or meat availability remains ample enough to prevent the expected tightening.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "PRIMARY_WORKING_HYPOTHESIS", "state": "TIGHTENING_LATER_WITH_MEAT_CUSHIONS_NOW", "thesis_id": "later_head_tightness_near_meat_cushion", "title": "Later fed-cattle tightness, buffered near-term beef availability" }, { "confirmation": "Weights, imports, dairy-beef supply, or weak exports continue replacing domestic fed-cattle tonnage.", "contradictions": [ "cof_placements_head", "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots" ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "current through 12 months", "invalidation": "Weights normalize and trade cushions reverse before placements recover.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "COMPETING_HYPOTHESIS", "thesis_id": "meat_availability_outlasts_head_shortage", "title": "Beef availability stays adequate longer than cattle head counts imply" }, { "confirmation": "Verified capacity exits or sustained shift reductions tighten the hook-to-cattle balance.", "contradictions": [ "No verified plant closure is inferred from margin data alone." ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "cof_marketings_head", "weekly_fi_slaughter_head" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "3-24 months", "invalidation": "Margins recover and observed capacity remains stable.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "COMPETING_HYPOTHESIS", "thesis_id": "capacity_rationalization_changes_leverage", "title": "Processing-capacity rationalization changes packer and feedyard leverage" } ], "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "validation": { "all_units_typed": true, "decision_effect": "NONE", "failed_reconciliations": [], "futures_pricing_model_active": false, "maximum_execution_points": 0, "missing_core_metrics": [], "missing_inputs": [], "numeric_forecast_policy": "No forward numeric value is emitted until an independently validated model supplies it.", "point_in_time_only": true, "promotion_gate_passed": false, "semantic_vintage_chain_validation": "PASS_WITH_LEGACY_PREFIX", "semantic_vintage_checkpoint_prior_state": "PASS", "semantic_vintage_checkpoint_validation": "PASS", "semantic_vintage_external_anchor_present": false, "semantic_vintage_parse_strict": true, "semantic_vintages": true, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "vintage_record_hash": "6523e8df8f17cce8f88f0c4b1825f325569c3827f84cbc47679ff6b7d18d2c9f", "warnings": [] }, { "balance_sheet": { "as_of": "2026-07-21", "periods": [ { "period": "Current feedlot inventory", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current fed-cattle inventory.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 33, "stale_days": 40, "state": "WATCH", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Cattle on feed", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_on_feed_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "feedlot_inventory", "unit": "head", "value": 11682000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": 2.0 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Incoming placement pipeline", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Incoming fed-cattle pipeline.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 33, "stale_days": 40, "state": "WATCH", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Monthly placements", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_placements_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "incoming_pipeline", "unit": "head", "value": 1704000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -10.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 33, "stale_days": 40, "state": "WATCH", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements under 600 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_less_than_600_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 320000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 33, "stale_days": 40, "state": "WATCH", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 600-699 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_600_699_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 240000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 33, "stale_days": 40, "state": "WATCH", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 700-799 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_700_799_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 400000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 33, "stale_days": 40, "state": "WATCH", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 800-899 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_800_899_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 444000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 33, "stale_days": 40, "state": "WATCH", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 900-999 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_900_999_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 225000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 33, "stale_days": 40, "state": "WATCH", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 1,000+ lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_1000_lbs_and_greater", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 75000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "USDA ERS-derived feeder-cattle reservoir outside feedlots; lower inventory can constrain future placements.", "freshness": { "cadence": "Quarterly USDA ERS feeder supply", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Feeder cattle outside feedlots", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_FEEDER_SUPPLY" ], "stage": "feeder_supply", "unit": "thousand_head", "value": 18776.97, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-04-01", "yoy_pct": 2.2631 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Fed-cattle outflow and meat production", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Fed-cattle outflow toward slaughter.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 33, "stale_days": 40, "state": "WATCH", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Monthly marketings", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_marketings_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "fed_outflow", "unit": "head", "value": 1551000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -12.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Non-marketing feedlot disappearance.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 33, "stale_days": 40, "state": "WATCH", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Other disappearance", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_other_disappearance_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "fed_outflow", "unit": "head", "value": 55000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -11.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Observed weekly cattle head throughput.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-21T21:30:04", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Weekly federally inspected slaughter", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "slaughter", "unit": "head", "value": 525000.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "yoy_pct": -7.4074 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Pounds produced per slaughtered animal.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-21T21:30:04", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Average dressed weight", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "yield", "unit": "lb_per_head", "value": 887.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "yoy_pct": 2.662 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Observed weekly beef output combines head throughput and carcass yield.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-21T21:30:04", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Weekly beef production", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "meat_output", "unit": "million_lb", "value": 464.5, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "yoy_pct": -5.0491 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Counterfactual pounds effect holding year-ago dressed weight constant.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-21T21:30:04", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Head-count contribution to weekly production change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_head_count_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "production_bridge", "unit": "million_lb", "value": -36.288, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Incremental pounds attributable to the dressed-weight change at current slaughter.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-21T21:30:04", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Dressed-weight contribution to weekly production change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "production_bridge", "unit": "million_lb", "value": 12.075, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "yoy_pct": null } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Trade and domestic availability", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Imported beef adds to domestic carcass-weight-equivalent availability.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date beef imports", "metadata": { "ytd_comparable": true, "ytd_through_month": 5 }, "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 2754566570.58, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": 9.9 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Exported beef removes product from domestic availability while reflecting foreign demand.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date beef exports", "metadata": { "ytd_comparable": true, "ytd_through_month": 5 }, "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 978518541.27, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": -17.2 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Imports less exports; this is a product-availability measure, not a fed-cattle-equivalent count.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date net beef imports", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 1776048029.31, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": -2.3381, "economic_read": "Weekly wholesale movement; descriptive context only because its futures validation gate has not passed.", "freshness": { "expected_latest_tuesday": "2026-07-21", "last_refresh_time_ct": "2026-07-21T15:30:10.267234-05:00", "latest_report_date": "2026-07-21", "reason": "Canonical Tuesday afternoon LM_XB403 history is current and complete.", "state": "PASS", "status_error": null, "status_report_date": "2026-07-21", "status_source_fingerprint": "12d63ec0bf6b194a374dd14edf50f9769dac19b2281a15e744611afa108a1a15", "status_source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/boxed_beef/boxed_beef_tuesday_history_status.json" }, "label": "Tuesday Choice/Select average weekly change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "tuesday_cutout_average_change_pct", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_BOXED_TUESDAY" ], "stage": "wholesale_demand", "unit": "percent", "value": -2.3381, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-21", "yoy_pct": null } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Capacity, cash, herd, and policy context", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Standardized box-minus-live operating-spread proxy; not company net income and not a futures timing signal.", "freshness": { "business_release_lag": 0, "calendar_age_days": 0, "expected_report_date": "2026-07-21", "holiday_calendar_note": "Weekday-aware; USDA holiday exceptions may produce WATCH until the next release.", "reason": "Latest expected weekday USDA CEI report is present.", "release_cutoff_ct": "15:45", "report_date": "2026-07-21", "state": "PASS", "status": "PASS", "weekend_aware": true }, "label": "USDA CEI gross packer spread", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_CEI" ], "stage": "processing_economics", "unit": "usd_per_cwt_carcass", "value": -2.3687, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-21", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current operating status constrains or restores feeder-cattle inflow; duration and price impact are not assumed.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Southern livestock port status", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "source_ids": [ "USDA_APHIS" ], "stage": "biological_policy", "unit": "status", "value": "CLOSED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-21", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Replacement intentions inform herd rebuilding capacity; they do not guarantee retained females or calf-crop growth.", "freshness": { "cadence": "Annual USDA ERS herd replacement", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Intended heifer replacements", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "intended_heifer_replacements", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_HERD_REPLACEMENT" ], "stage": "breeding_herd", "unit": "thousand_head", "value": 8618.8, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-01-01", "yoy_pct": 0.361 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" } ], "reconciliations": [ { "actual": 1704000.0, "check_id": "cof_placement_buckets", "expected": 1704000.0, "name": "Placement weight buckets sum to placements", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 1000.0, "unit": "head" }, { "actual": 11682000.0, "check_id": "cof_head_flow", "expected": 11682000.0, "name": "Opening inventory plus placements less outflows equals closing inventory", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 1000.0, "unit": "head" }, { "actual": 464.5, "check_id": "weekly_production_bridge", "expected": 464.98699999999997, "name": "Year-ago production plus head effect plus weight effect reconciles to current production", "passed": true, "residual": -0.487, "tolerance": 2.3225000000000002, "unit": "million_lb" }, { "actual": 1776048029.31, "check_id": "net_trade_identity", "expected": 1776048029.31, "name": "Imports less exports equals net imports", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 0.01, "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent" } ], "status": "RECONCILED", "summary": { "beef_supply_change_pct": -5.0491, "dressed_weight_yoy_pct": 2.662, "exports_ytd_change_pct": -17.2, "imports_ytd_change_pct": 9.9, "observation_count": 23, "reconciliation_count": 4, "reconciliation_pass_count": 4, "slaughter_yoy_pct": -7.4074, "source_count": 9, "source_ledger_row_count": 9, "status": "RECONCILED", "weight_offset_of_head_decline_pct": 33.28 }, "unit_policy": "No cattle-head-to-beef-pound conversion is made without an exposed observed weight or typed derivation." }, "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "change_alerts": [ { "alert_id": "later_fed_pipeline_tightening", "counter_evidence": "Current cattle on feed are +2.0% YoY.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "TIGHTENING_LATER", "horizon": "3-18 months", "invalidation": "Placements and feeder availability normalize, or the livestock-border constraint is formally removed.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "WATCH", "summary": "The later fed-cattle pipeline is tightening, but this is not a futures signal.", "triggers": [ { "label": "Placements -10.0% YoY", "metric_id": "cof_placements_head" }, { "label": "Southern livestock ports closed", "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports" } ] }, { "alert_id": "weight_offsets_head_decline", "counter_evidence": "Reported weekly beef production remains -5.0% YoY.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "MEAT_CUSHION", "horizon": "current to 3 months", "invalidation": "Dressed weights stop offsetting lower head throughput.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "ACTIVE", "summary": "Heavier carcasses are replacing part of the beef tonnage lost to lower slaughter.", "triggers": [ { "label": "Slaughter -7.4% YoY", "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head" }, { "label": "Dressed weight +2.7% YoY", "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs" } ] }, { "alert_id": "trade_cushions_domestic_availability", "counter_evidence": "Product mix and imported lean are not fully interchangeable with Choice fed-beef cuts.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "DOMESTIC_AVAILABILITY_CUSHION", "horizon": "current to 6 months", "invalidation": "Imports reverse lower and exports recover enough to remove the net availability cushion.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "ACTIVE", "summary": "Trade flows are cushioning domestic beef availability despite tighter cattle head counts.", "triggers": [ { "label": "YTD imports +9.9%", "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe" }, { "label": "YTD exports -17.2%", "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe" } ] } ], "composer_contract": { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "composer_version": "alpha.structural_radar.composer.v2.0.0", "decision_effect": "NONE", "max_points": 0, "mode": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "conditional_contract_estimates": { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "contract_estimates": [ { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 245.4, 250.825 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 248.425, "contract_role": "near", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-06-19T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d1", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": 0.374873, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-22" }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 246.75, "predicted_response_pct": 0.676151, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-08", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -0.548147, 1.653802 ], "symbol": "LEQ6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 242.6, 254.025 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 248.65, "contract_role": "near", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-06-25T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d5", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": -0.273556, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-26" }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 246.75, "predicted_response_pct": 0.765928, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-08", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.683544, 2.951848 ], "symbol": "LEQ6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 240.2, 264.075 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 249.55, "contract_role": "near", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-07-16T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d20", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": -8.206687, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-07-20" }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 246.75, "predicted_response_pct": 1.131717, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-08", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -2.650467, 7.024054 ], "symbol": "LEQ6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 242.55, 269.175 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 251.75, "contract_role": "near", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-08-13T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d40", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "status": "OPEN_OR_NOT_YET_OBSERVABLE", "target_date": null }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 246.75, "predicted_response_pct": 2.027405, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-08", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.702378, 9.086627 ], "symbol": "LEQ6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 239.2, 243.675 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 241.825, "contract_role": "mid", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-06-19T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d1", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": 0.531029, 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"label": "D20", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d40", "label": "D40", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 } ], "by_horizon": [ { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d1", "label": "D1", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d5", "label": "D5", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d20", "label": "D20", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d40", "label": "D40", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 } ], "calibration": [], "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "directional_accuracy": null, "forward_resolved_count": 0, "forward_resolved_forecast_count": 0, "forward_test_status": "OPEN_BOOK_NO_FORWARD_RESOLUTIONS", "interval_coverage": null, "mae": null, "mae_skill_vs_baseline": null, "matured_data_pending_count": 0, "mean_bias": null, "open_forecast_count": 0, "performance_status": "UNPROVEN", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "profitability_claim": false, "resolved_forecast_count": 0, "rmse": null, "schema_version": "alpha.structural_forecast_scorecard.v1", "skill_vs_baseline": null, "status": "NO_RESOLVED_FORWARD_FORECASTS", "unique_resolved_release_revision_count": 0, "unique_resolved_report_release_count": 0, "validation_mode": "IMMUTABLE_GENUINELY_FORWARD_OOS" }, "frozen_forecasts": [], "futures_implications": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESES", "generated_at_ct": "2026-07-21T16:50:49.978278-05:00", "headline": { "confidence": "HIGH", "dominant_stage": "placements_vs_meat_availability", "horizon": "current through 18 months", "state": "TIGHTENING_LATER_WITH_MEAT_CUSHIONS_NOW", "text": "The later fed-cattle pipeline is tightening while heavier carcasses and trade flows cushion beef availability now.", "what_changed": "Changed observations: packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass, southern_livestock_ports, tuesday_cutout_average_change_pct." }, "history": { "changed_metric_ids": [ "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "southern_livestock_ports", "tuesday_cutout_average_change_pct" ], "previous_fingerprint": "07738341a9dadf6d595a8fa0496f64a6c0174bc4d05ce2be6a3ba89300c18a99", "semantic_changed": true, "vintage_count": 23, "vintage_recorded": true }, "live_trade_status": "DISABLED", "max_points": 0, "mode": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "model_card": { "baseline": "Expanding historical mean inside V2 walk-forward diagnostics; zero-change baseline in the immutable forward registry.", "calibration_policy": "No calibrated claim until at least 36 independent genuinely forward report releases and at least 10 unique releases per claimed horizon; correlated role-by-horizon cells and same-report revisions do not count as independent releases. Current status remains NOT_CALIBRATED.", "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "data_sources": [ "USDA NASS COF as-released event rows", "Databento Live Cattle fixed-contract daily bars" ], "evaluation_metrics": [ "MAE", "baseline-relative MAE skill", "directional accuracy", "prediction correlation", "80% interval coverage" ], "fairness_scope": "Not applicable to people; monitor contract-month and market-regime coverage instead.", "feature_families": [ "USDA COF year-over-year release values", "activity-month seasonality" ], "features": [ "on_feed_yoy_delta_pp", "placements_yoy_delta_pp", "marketings_yoy_delta_pp", "activity_month_season_sin", "activity_month_season_cos" ], "governance": { "auto_promotion_path": false, "decision_effect": "NONE", "max_points": 0, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "horizon_definitions": { "d1": "1 actual later fixed-contract session(s)", "d20": "20 actual later fixed-contract session(s)", "d40": "40 actual later fixed-contract session(s)", "d5": "5 actual later fixed-contract session(s)" }, "horizons": [ "d1", "d5", "d20", "d40" ], "intended_uses": [ "research", "hypothesis tracking", "forward accountability", "contract-window comparison" ], "known_limitations": [ "No contemporaneous consensus-surprise feature", "Conditional report response is not all-factor intrinsic value", "Weekday target scheduling is conservative and is reconciled to actual fixed-contract sessions at resolution", "No demonstrated forward predictive edge yet", "No transaction costs, slippage, liquidity, or executable strategy economics" ], "leakage_controls": [ "As-released report values only", "Latest event excluded from training", "Training labels must complete before prediction", "Forward registry rejects horizons already mature at first issuance" ], "lifecycle_status": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "model_name": "Structural Futures V2 fixed-contract COF response", "model_type": "Expanding-window ridge regression with fixed-contract event responses", "model_version": "cof-fixed-contract-ridge-v2.1.0", "monitoring": { "baseline_relative_scorecard": true, "calibration_minimum_unique_report_releases": 36, "immutable_forecast_book": true, "open_outcomes_retained": true }, "owner": "Alpha Structural Radar research boundary", "prediction_population": "Highest-volume unexpired Live Cattle fixed contract and the next two listed expiries on the release date.", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "prohibited_uses": [ "WOW Command input", "official decision input", "live trading", "position sizing", "intrinsic fair-value claim" ], "promotion_criteria": [ "At least 36 independent genuinely forward report releases", "At least 10 unique report releases per claimed horizon", "Positive baseline-relative MAE skill with stable directional evidence", "Independent governance review; never automatic promotion" ], "promotion_gate_passed": false, "purpose": "Estimate a conditional fixed-contract price response after a Cattle on Feed release.", "reproducibility": "Each issuance freezes the implementation SHA-256, fitted ridge coefficients/normalization/penalty, exact training-row identity hash, event features, source hashes, and model-spec hash.", "schema_version": "alpha.model_card.structural_futures_v2.v1", "status": "RESEARCH_ONLY_UNVALIDATED", "target": "Nth actual later RTH last-trade close versus same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close before the after-close COF release; these are not official CME settlements.", "target_definition": "Nth actual later RTH last-trade close versus same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close before the after-close COF release; these are not official CME settlements.", "training": { "continuous_or_stitched_prices_used": false, "fixed_contract_only": true, "method": "Ridge regression fit only to fully labeled events available before each prediction timestamp.", "minimum_train_events": 24, "walk_forward_evaluation": true }, "training_cutoff": "Strictly before each prediction release; every included label must also have completed before that release.", "uncertainty": "Residual 10th/90th-percentile response interval where enough walk-forward residuals exist.", "validation_method": "Expanding-window point-in-time walk-forward", "validation_protocol": "Expanding-window, point-in-time walk-forward evaluation against an expanding-mean diagnostic baseline." }, "module": "ALPHA_STRUCTURAL_RADAR_V1", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "previous_vintage_record_hash": "6523e8df8f17cce8f88f0c4b1825f325569c3827f84cbc47679ff6b7d18d2c9f", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "revision_ledger": [ { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_on_feed_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_placements_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_marketings_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_other_disappearance_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_less_than_600_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_600_699_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_700_799_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_800_899_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_900_999_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_1000_lbs_and_greater", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_head_count_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Period advanced from 2026-07-20 to 2026-07-21.", "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "vintage_date": "2026-07-21" }, { "detail": "Period advanced from 2026-07-16 to 2026-07-21.", "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "vintage_date": "2026-07-21" }, { "detail": "Period advanced from 2026-07-14 to 2026-07-21.", "metric_id": "tuesday_cutout_average_change_pct", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "vintage_date": "2026-07-21" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-04-01" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "intended_heifer_replacements", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-01-01" } ], "schema_version": "1.0.0", "semantic_fingerprint": "f0d470c63fdfab9b44b1f6eb2e6d54c3547daf649a1a8a5fb41afce7f23d251e", "separation_contract": { "auto_promotion_path": false, "calls_decision_components": false, "official_decision_effect": "NONE", "radar_write_root": "/opt/alpha_structural_radar", "reads_decision_outputs": false, "source_root_read_only": "/opt/alpha_current", "wow_command_effect": "NONE", "write_allowlist": [ "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs/structural_radar_status.json", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs/structural_radar_history.json", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/data/structural_radar/vintages.jsonl", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/state/structural_radar.lock" ], "writes_decision_outputs": false }, "source_ledger": [ { "error": null, "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 33, "stale_days": 40, "state": "WATCH", "warn_days": 32 }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-06-18", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "492329ce853f88b37c217233dcdaa79c499a03b3fd1db515af216dc3637ea49d", "source_id": "USDA_NASS_COF", "source_module": "cattle_on_feed", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/cattle_on_feed_status.json", "upstream_status": "WATCH", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-05", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "0fbb3b8ab1c74b00a6edb1e88c7349814d1c65ef861a9d2873e287c3ff10b55d", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_TRADE", "source_module": "import_exports", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/import_exports_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "business_release_lag": 0, "calendar_age_days": 0, "expected_report_date": "2026-07-21", "holiday_calendar_note": "Weekday-aware; USDA holiday exceptions may produce WATCH until the next release.", "reason": "Latest expected weekday USDA CEI report is present.", "release_cutoff_ct": "15:45", "report_date": "2026-07-21", "state": "PASS", "status": "PASS", "weekend_aware": true }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-21 after 15:30 CT", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "0160aaa0780617469f60e6244568f17924c4848b467331ca17f2566c9b0ed108", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_CEI", "source_module": "ALPHA_PACKER_ECONOMICS_V1", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/packer_economics_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-21", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "bf9d526f7e8253f02a784c5f324b4c85e5c93a73227ebdbd5743f9bfddf70544", "source_id": "USDA_APHIS", "source_module": "animal_health", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/animal_health_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "pass_max_days": 2, "state": "PASS", "watch_max_days": 5 }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-21 daily publication", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "be43fbe0deae9427426c43acf88c4c9d0c1894611c2a4ea2b4aafdd1806edc69", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_CASH", "source_module": "cash_cattle", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/cash_cattle_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "expected_latest_tuesday": "2026-07-21", "last_refresh_time_ct": "2026-07-21T15:30:10.267234-05:00", "latest_report_date": "2026-07-21", "reason": "Canonical Tuesday afternoon LM_XB403 history is current and complete.", "state": "PASS", "status_error": null, "status_report_date": "2026-07-21", "status_source_fingerprint": "12d63ec0bf6b194a374dd14edf50f9769dac19b2281a15e744611afa108a1a15", "status_source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/boxed_beef/boxed_beef_tuesday_history_status.json" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-21", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "08350f002c4754da76c3d7abbf3a016e2c666573132a735ba1c44f5a100be7e8", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_BOXED_TUESDAY", "source_module": "boxed_beef_tuesday_history", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/boxed_beef/boxed_beef_tuesday_history.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-21T21:30:04", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-17", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "4f05f2e412bb3ee954fa77932ba9c5fab2ba66b750b6139acd44c5d251b932b9", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT", "source_module": "weekly_kill_weights", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/weekly_kill_weights.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "cadence": "Quarterly USDA ERS feeder supply", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-04-01", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "32d71256ffb42497325ea439db5ed6a00752be99019c9ab73562950ad87f581b", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_FEEDER_SUPPLY", "source_module": "ers_feeder_supply", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/ers_livestock_domestic_data/livestock-data-machine-readable-files/FeederCattleSuppliesOutsideFeedlots.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "DERIVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "cadence": "Annual USDA ERS herd replacement", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-01-01", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "281e3d55e23156459116f1b342105d36eb78c6d3295597ee52f60c846528960d", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_HERD_REPLACEMENT", "source_module": "ers_heifer_replacements", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/ers_livestock_domestic_data/livestock-data-machine-readable-files/heifersenteringherd.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" } ], "status": "PASS", "structural_futures_v2": { "cohort_timing_bridge": { "assumptions": { "contract_mapping": "Each possible market-ready day maps to the nearest still-unexpired Feb/Apr/Jun/Aug/Oct/Dec Live Cattle contract midpoint. Expiry uses the last weekday as an approximation and does not encode exchange holidays.", "days_on_feed": { "1000_lbs_and_greater": [ 50, 110 ], "600_699_lbs": [ 170, 230 ], "700_799_lbs": [ 140, 200 ], "800_899_lbs": [ 110, 170 ], "900_999_lbs": [ 80, 140 ], "less_than_600_lbs": [ 190, 250 ] }, "exposure_weighting": "Placement day and days-on-feed are modeled as independent discrete uniform assumptions, then convolved. These are scenario weights, not empirical probabilities.", "interpretation": "Head-equivalent exposure is a timing bridge, not deliverable supply, open interest, fair value, or a price forecast.", "placement_date_uncertainty": "Earliest uses activity-month start; latest uses activity-month end." }, "buckets": [ { "bucket_id": "less_than_600_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 209836.1, "delta_head_equivalent": -9836.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 219672.1, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.655738 }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 110163.9, "delta_head_equivalent": -5163.9, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 115327.9, "symbol": "LEG7", "window_day_share": 0.344262 } ], "current_head": 320000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 250, "minimum": 190 }, "delta_head": -15000, "delta_pct": -4.478, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-11-07", "latest": "2027-02-05" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-11-25", "p50": "2026-12-22", "p90": "2027-01-18", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 335000 }, { "bucket_id": "600_699_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 11549.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -1684.3, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 13233.7, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.048123 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 211189.8, "delta_head_equivalent": -30798.5, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 241988.4, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.879958 }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 17260.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -2517.2, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 19777.9, "symbol": "LEG7", "window_day_share": 0.07192 } ], "current_head": 240000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 230, "minimum": 170 }, "delta_head": -35000, "delta_pct": -12.727, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-10-18", "latest": "2027-01-16" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-11-05", "p50": "2026-12-02", "p90": "2026-12-29", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 275000 }, { "bucket_id": "700_799_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 183606.6, "delta_head_equivalent": -22950.8, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 206557.4, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.459016 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 216393.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -27049.2, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 243442.6, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.540984 } ], "current_head": 400000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 200, "minimum": 140 }, "delta_head": -50000, 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"2025-06-20", "reconciliations": [ { "actual": 1704000.0, "check_id": "latest_bucket_sum_to_placements", "expected": 1704000.0, "passed": true, "residual_head": 0.0, "tolerance_head": 1000.0 }, { "actual": 1886000.0, "check_id": "prior_bucket_sum_to_placements", "expected": 1886000.0, "passed": true, "residual_head": 0.0, "tolerance_head": 1000.0 }, { "actual": -182000.0, "check_id": "contract_exposure_delta_to_bucket_delta", "expected": -182000.0, "passed": true, "residual_head": 0.0, "tolerance_head": 1.0 } ], "status": "PASS" }, "contract_response_models": { "continuous_or_stitched_prices_used": false, "contract_estimates": [ { "cohort_timing_exposure": { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 190245.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -10133.3, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 200378.6, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEQ6" }, "contract_id": "LE-2026-08", "horizons": [ { "conditional_fair_value": 248.425, 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"PASS" } ], "role": "near", "symbol": "LEQ6" }, { "cohort_timing_exposure": { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 706142.8, "delta_head_equivalent": -89816.5, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 795959.3, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEV6" }, "contract_id": "LE-2026-10", "horizons": [ { "conditional_fair_value": 241.825, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 239.2, 243.675 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d1", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": 0.531029, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-22" }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.721589, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -0.374333, 1.488104 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 242.075, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 236.45, 246.775 ], "estimate_status": 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"estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d40", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "predicted_response_pct": 2.053093, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.30899, 8.914597 ], "status": "PASS" } ], "role": "mid", "symbol": "LEV6" }, { "cohort_timing_exposure": { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 677569.5, "delta_head_equivalent": -74194.6, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 751764.1, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEZ6" }, "contract_id": "LE-2026-12", "horizons": [ { "conditional_fair_value": 240.8, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 238.65, 242.325 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d1", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": 0.585468, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-22" }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.697705, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -0.196348, 1.335889 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 241.175, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 235.65, 246.15 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d5", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": -0.230005, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-26" }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.857373, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.450258, 2.941915 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 241.675, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 234.8, 254.525 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d20", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": -6.743335, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-07-20" }, "predicted_response_pct": 1.06329, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.805714, 6.442563 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 243.8, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 232.9, 258.5 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d40", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "predicted_response_pct": 1.958683, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -2.607012, 8.100815 ], "status": "PASS" } ], "role": "deferred", "symbol": "LEZ6" } ], "contract_selection": "Highest-volume unexpired named fixed contract is near; the next two canonical year-month expiries are mid and deferred.", "curve_twist_model_active": false, "curve_twist_pricing_authority": "NONE", "fair_value_limitation": "Conditional report-response price is not an all-factor intrinsic fair value and cannot be promoted by this module.", "fixed_contract_only": true, "implementation_sha256": "122b355739d8f28522367bcb9b4097a897fa382cc2fbe049c89d448fb81c0d56", "known_limitations": [ "Historical price references are Databento RTH last-trade closes, not official CME settlements.", "Daily source rows do not retain the final bar timestamp; pre-release ordering relies on the scheduled 13:05 CT RTH close preceding the recorded 14:00 CT COF release.", "No licensed analyst-consensus surprise series is available; report features are printed YoY levels, not consensus surprises.", "Role, horizon, and regime heterogeneity remain research limitations; all operational gates stay closed." ], "latest_release_date": "2026-06-18", "model_version": "cof-fixed-contract-ridge-v2.1.0", "models": [ { 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Same-report roles, horizons, and revisions do not inflate the independent-release threshold. The sibling checkpoint is best-effort and no external WORM anchor exists; accountability is partial and predictive profitability is not graded.", "status": "PARTIAL", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "OPERATIONAL_ISOLATION", "earned": 15.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Base radar has no decision or WOW effect", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Registry writes only below the sibling radar root and the required runtime permission probe passes", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "No live-trade use, auto-promotion, or execution points", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Operational and WOW Command isolation", "status": "PASS", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "TRANSPARENCY", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Complete model card states purpose, target, data, leakage controls, limitations, and governance", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Scorecard names a frozen baseline and baseline-relative primary metric", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Model-card and baseline transparency", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 } ], "eligibility": { "operational_promotion_eligible": false, "predictive_profitability_grade_eligible": false, "status": "ELIGIBLE_SYSTEM_QUALITY_ONLY", "system_quality_grade_eligible": true }, "explicit_exclusions": [ "predictive profitability", "tradable edge", "live execution quality", "risk-adjusted returns" ], "max_points": 0, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "profitability_claim": false, "rubric_id": "ALPHA_SYSTEM_QUALITY_NON_PROFITABILITY_V1", "schema_version": "alpha.system_quality_audit.v1", "scope": "SYSTEM_DESIGN_DATA_INTEGRITY_GOVERNANCE_AND_ACCOUNTABILITY", "score": { "earned": 91.0, "grade": "A-", "maximum": 100.0, "normalized_10": 9.1 }, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "theses": [ { "active_alert_ids": [ "later_fed_pipeline_tightening", "weight_offsets_head_decline", "trade_cushions_domestic_availability" ], "confirmation": "Later marketings and slaughter tighten after placement cohorts roll forward while meat cushions fade.", "contradictions": [ "cof_on_feed_head", "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs" ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "cof_placements_head", "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "beef_exports_ytd_cwe" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "current through 18 months", "invalidation": "Placements recover or meat availability remains ample enough to prevent the expected tightening.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "PRIMARY_WORKING_HYPOTHESIS", "state": "TIGHTENING_LATER_WITH_MEAT_CUSHIONS_NOW", "thesis_id": "later_head_tightness_near_meat_cushion", "title": "Later fed-cattle tightness, buffered near-term beef availability" }, { "confirmation": "Weights, imports, dairy-beef supply, or weak exports continue replacing domestic fed-cattle tonnage.", "contradictions": [ "cof_placements_head", "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots" ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "current through 12 months", "invalidation": "Weights normalize and trade cushions reverse before placements recover.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "COMPETING_HYPOTHESIS", "thesis_id": "meat_availability_outlasts_head_shortage", "title": "Beef availability stays adequate longer than cattle head counts imply" }, { "confirmation": "Verified capacity exits or sustained shift reductions tighten the hook-to-cattle balance.", "contradictions": [ "No verified plant closure is inferred from margin data alone." ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "cof_marketings_head", "weekly_fi_slaughter_head" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "3-24 months", "invalidation": "Margins recover and observed capacity remains stable.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "COMPETING_HYPOTHESIS", "thesis_id": "capacity_rationalization_changes_leverage", "title": "Processing-capacity rationalization changes packer and feedyard leverage" } ], "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "validation": { "all_units_typed": true, "decision_effect": "NONE", "failed_reconciliations": [], "futures_pricing_model_active": false, "maximum_execution_points": 0, "missing_core_metrics": [], "missing_inputs": [], "numeric_forecast_policy": "No forward numeric value is emitted until an independently validated model supplies it.", "point_in_time_only": true, "promotion_gate_passed": false, "semantic_vintage_chain_validation": "PASS_WITH_LEGACY_PREFIX", "semantic_vintage_checkpoint_prior_state": "PASS", "semantic_vintage_checkpoint_validation": "PASS", "semantic_vintage_external_anchor_present": false, "semantic_vintage_parse_strict": true, "semantic_vintages": true, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "vintage_record_hash": "f540edee31a6a4545a47558b740302dccd14c093fbfaeb529f357cfa32c3fab5", "warnings": [] }, { "balance_sheet": { "as_of": "2026-07-21", "periods": [ { "period": "Current feedlot inventory", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current fed-cattle inventory.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 33, "stale_days": 40, "state": "WATCH", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Cattle on feed", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_on_feed_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "feedlot_inventory", "unit": "head", "value": 11682000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": 2.0 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Incoming placement pipeline", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Incoming fed-cattle pipeline.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 33, "stale_days": 40, "state": "WATCH", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Monthly placements", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_placements_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "incoming_pipeline", "unit": "head", "value": 1704000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -10.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 33, "stale_days": 40, "state": "WATCH", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements under 600 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_less_than_600_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 320000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 33, "stale_days": 40, "state": "WATCH", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 600-699 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_600_699_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 240000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 33, "stale_days": 40, "state": "WATCH", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 700-799 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_700_799_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 400000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 33, "stale_days": 40, "state": "WATCH", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 800-899 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_800_899_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 444000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 33, "stale_days": 40, "state": "WATCH", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 900-999 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_900_999_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 225000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 33, "stale_days": 40, "state": "WATCH", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 1,000+ lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_1000_lbs_and_greater", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 75000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "USDA ERS-derived feeder-cattle reservoir outside feedlots; lower inventory can constrain future placements.", "freshness": { "cadence": "Quarterly USDA ERS feeder supply", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Feeder cattle outside feedlots", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_FEEDER_SUPPLY" ], "stage": "feeder_supply", "unit": "thousand_head", "value": 18776.97, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-04-01", "yoy_pct": 2.2631 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Fed-cattle outflow and meat production", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Fed-cattle outflow toward slaughter.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 33, "stale_days": 40, "state": "WATCH", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Monthly marketings", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_marketings_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "fed_outflow", "unit": "head", "value": 1551000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -12.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Non-marketing feedlot disappearance.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 33, "stale_days": 40, "state": "WATCH", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Other disappearance", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_other_disappearance_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "fed_outflow", "unit": "head", "value": 55000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -11.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Observed weekly cattle head throughput.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-21T21:30:04", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Weekly federally inspected slaughter", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "slaughter", "unit": "head", "value": 525000.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "yoy_pct": -7.4074 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Pounds produced per slaughtered animal.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-21T21:30:04", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Average dressed weight", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "yield", "unit": "lb_per_head", "value": 887.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "yoy_pct": 2.662 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Observed weekly beef output combines head throughput and carcass yield.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-21T21:30:04", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Weekly beef production", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "meat_output", "unit": "million_lb", "value": 464.5, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "yoy_pct": -5.0491 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Counterfactual pounds effect holding year-ago dressed weight constant.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-21T21:30:04", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Head-count contribution to weekly production change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_head_count_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "production_bridge", "unit": "million_lb", "value": -36.288, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Incremental pounds attributable to the dressed-weight change at current slaughter.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-21T21:30:04", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Dressed-weight contribution to weekly production change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "production_bridge", "unit": "million_lb", "value": 12.075, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "yoy_pct": null } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Trade and domestic availability", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Imported beef adds to domestic carcass-weight-equivalent availability.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date beef imports", "metadata": { "ytd_comparable": true, "ytd_through_month": 5 }, "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 2754566570.58, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": 9.9 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Exported beef removes product from domestic availability while reflecting foreign demand.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date beef exports", "metadata": { "ytd_comparable": true, "ytd_through_month": 5 }, "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 978518541.27, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": -17.2 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Imports less exports; this is a product-availability measure, not a fed-cattle-equivalent count.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date net beef imports", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 1776048029.31, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": -2.3381, "economic_read": "Weekly wholesale movement; descriptive context only because its futures validation gate has not passed.", "freshness": { "expected_latest_tuesday": "2026-07-21", "last_refresh_time_ct": "2026-07-21T15:30:10.267234-05:00", "latest_report_date": "2026-07-21", "reason": "Canonical Tuesday afternoon LM_XB403 history is current and complete.", "state": "PASS", "status_error": null, "status_report_date": "2026-07-21", "status_source_fingerprint": "12d63ec0bf6b194a374dd14edf50f9769dac19b2281a15e744611afa108a1a15", "status_source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/boxed_beef/boxed_beef_tuesday_history_status.json" }, "label": "Tuesday Choice/Select average weekly change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "tuesday_cutout_average_change_pct", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_BOXED_TUESDAY" ], "stage": "wholesale_demand", "unit": "percent", "value": -2.3381, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-21", "yoy_pct": null } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Capacity, cash, herd, and policy context", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Standardized box-minus-live operating-spread proxy; not company net income and not a futures timing signal.", "freshness": { "business_release_lag": 0, "calendar_age_days": 0, "expected_report_date": "2026-07-21", "holiday_calendar_note": "Weekday-aware; USDA holiday exceptions may produce WATCH until the next release.", "reason": "Latest expected weekday USDA CEI report is present.", "release_cutoff_ct": "15:45", "report_date": "2026-07-21", "state": "PASS", "status": "PASS", "weekend_aware": true }, "label": "USDA CEI gross packer spread", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_CEI" ], "stage": "processing_economics", "unit": "usd_per_cwt_carcass", "value": -2.3687, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-21", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current operating status constrains or restores feeder-cattle inflow; duration and price impact are not assumed.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Southern livestock port status", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_APHIS" ], "stage": "biological_policy", "unit": "status", "value": "CLOSED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-21", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Replacement intentions inform herd rebuilding capacity; they do not guarantee retained females or calf-crop growth.", "freshness": { "cadence": "Annual USDA ERS herd replacement", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Intended heifer replacements", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "intended_heifer_replacements", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_HERD_REPLACEMENT" ], "stage": "breeding_herd", "unit": "thousand_head", "value": 8618.8, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-01-01", "yoy_pct": 0.361 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" } ], "reconciliations": [ { "actual": 1704000.0, "check_id": "cof_placement_buckets", "expected": 1704000.0, "name": "Placement weight buckets sum to placements", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 1000.0, "unit": "head" }, { "actual": 11682000.0, "check_id": "cof_head_flow", "expected": 11682000.0, "name": "Opening inventory plus placements less outflows equals closing inventory", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 1000.0, "unit": "head" }, { "actual": 464.5, "check_id": "weekly_production_bridge", "expected": 464.98699999999997, "name": "Year-ago production plus head effect plus weight effect reconciles to current production", "passed": true, "residual": -0.487, "tolerance": 2.3225000000000002, "unit": "million_lb" }, { "actual": 1776048029.31, "check_id": "net_trade_identity", "expected": 1776048029.31, "name": "Imports less exports equals net imports", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 0.01, "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent" } ], "status": "RECONCILED", "summary": { "beef_supply_change_pct": -5.0491, "dressed_weight_yoy_pct": 2.662, "exports_ytd_change_pct": -17.2, "imports_ytd_change_pct": 9.9, "observation_count": 23, "reconciliation_count": 4, "reconciliation_pass_count": 4, "slaughter_yoy_pct": -7.4074, "source_count": 9, "source_ledger_row_count": 9, "status": "RECONCILED", "weight_offset_of_head_decline_pct": 33.28 }, "unit_policy": "No cattle-head-to-beef-pound conversion is made without an exposed observed weight or typed derivation." }, "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "change_alerts": [ { "alert_id": "later_fed_pipeline_tightening", "counter_evidence": "Current cattle on feed are +2.0% YoY.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "TIGHTENING_LATER", "horizon": "3-18 months", "invalidation": "Placements and feeder availability normalize, or the livestock-border constraint is formally removed.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "WATCH", "summary": "The later fed-cattle pipeline is tightening, but this is not a futures signal.", "triggers": [ { "label": "Placements -10.0% YoY", "metric_id": "cof_placements_head" }, { "label": "Southern livestock ports closed", "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports" } ] }, { "alert_id": "weight_offsets_head_decline", "counter_evidence": "Reported weekly beef production remains -5.0% YoY.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "MEAT_CUSHION", "horizon": "current to 3 months", "invalidation": "Dressed weights stop offsetting lower head throughput.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "ACTIVE", "summary": "Heavier carcasses are replacing part of the beef tonnage lost to lower slaughter.", "triggers": [ { "label": "Slaughter -7.4% YoY", "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head" }, { "label": "Dressed weight +2.7% YoY", "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs" } ] }, { "alert_id": "trade_cushions_domestic_availability", "counter_evidence": "Product mix and imported lean are not fully interchangeable with Choice fed-beef cuts.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "DOMESTIC_AVAILABILITY_CUSHION", "horizon": "current to 6 months", "invalidation": "Imports reverse lower and exports recover enough to remove the net availability cushion.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "ACTIVE", "summary": "Trade flows are cushioning domestic beef availability despite tighter cattle head counts.", "triggers": [ { "label": "YTD imports +9.9%", "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe" }, { "label": "YTD exports -17.2%", "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe" } ] } ], "composer_contract": { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "composer_version": "alpha.structural_radar.composer.v2.0.0", "decision_effect": "NONE", "max_points": 0, "mode": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "conditional_contract_estimates": { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "contract_estimates": [ { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 245.4, 250.825 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 248.425, "contract_role": "near", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-06-19T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d1", "issuance_status": 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1.06329, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-12", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.805714, 6.442563 ], "symbol": "LEZ6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 232.9, 258.5 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 243.8, "contract_role": "deferred", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-08-13T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d40", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "status": "OPEN_OR_NOT_YET_OBSERVABLE", "target_date": null }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 239.125, "predicted_response_pct": 1.958683, "prediction_contract_id": 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fixed-contract price response after a Cattle on Feed release.", "reproducibility": "Each issuance freezes the implementation SHA-256, fitted ridge coefficients/normalization/penalty, exact training-row identity hash, event features, source hashes, and model-spec hash.", "schema_version": "alpha.model_card.structural_futures_v2.v1", "status": "RESEARCH_ONLY_UNVALIDATED", "target": "Nth actual later RTH last-trade close versus same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close before the after-close COF release; these are not official CME settlements.", "target_definition": "Nth actual later RTH last-trade close versus same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close before the after-close COF release; these are not official CME settlements.", "training": { "continuous_or_stitched_prices_used": false, "fixed_contract_only": true, "method": "Ridge regression fit only to fully labeled events available before each prediction timestamp.", "minimum_train_events": 24, "walk_forward_evaluation": true }, "training_cutoff": "Strictly before each prediction release; every included label must also have completed before that release.", "uncertainty": "Residual 10th/90th-percentile response interval where enough walk-forward residuals exist.", "validation_method": "Expanding-window point-in-time walk-forward", "validation_protocol": "Expanding-window, point-in-time walk-forward evaluation against an expanding-mean diagnostic baseline." }, "module": "ALPHA_STRUCTURAL_FORECAST_REGISTRY", "outcome_states": { "MATURED_DATA_PENDING": 0, "OPEN": 0, "RESOLVED": 0 }, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "research_only": true, "safety": { "auto_promotion_path": false, "decision_effect": "NONE", "max_points": 0, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "radar_write_root": "/opt/alpha_structural_radar", "runtime_permission_probe": { "decision_probe_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/decision_status.json", "effective_uid": 997, "method": "NON_MUTATING_OS_ACCESS_EFFECTIVE_IDS", "radar_outputs_path": "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs", "required": true, "results": { "decision_output_writable": false, "radar_outputs_writable": true, "source_root_writable": false }, "source_root": "/opt/alpha_current", "status": "PASS" }, "source_root_read_only": "/opt/alpha_current", "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "wow_command_effect": "NONE", "write_allowlist": [ "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/data/structural_forecast_registry/records.jsonl", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs/structural_forecast_registry_status.json", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/state/structural_forecast_registry.lock" ], "writes_only_below_radar_root": true }, "schema_version": "alpha.structural_forecast_registry.v1", "scorecard": { "baseline": { "baseline_id": "ZERO_CHANGE_FIXED_CONTRACT_V1", "definition": "Zero report-response return from the pre-report fixed-contract close.", "frozen_at_issuance": true }, "by_contract_role": {}, "by_horizon": { "d1": { "baseline_mae_response_pct": null, "interval_80_coverage": null, "mae_skill_vs_zero_change_baseline": null, "model_directional_accuracy": null, "model_mae_response_pct": null, "model_mean_error_response_pct": null, "model_rmse_response_pct": null, "n_resolved": 0, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "unique_release_revision_count": 0, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, "d20": { "baseline_mae_response_pct": null, "interval_80_coverage": null, "mae_skill_vs_zero_change_baseline": null, "model_directional_accuracy": null, "model_mae_response_pct": null, "model_mean_error_response_pct": null, "model_rmse_response_pct": null, "n_resolved": 0, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "unique_release_revision_count": 0, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, "d40": { "baseline_mae_response_pct": null, "interval_80_coverage": null, "mae_skill_vs_zero_change_baseline": null, "model_directional_accuracy": null, "model_mae_response_pct": null, "model_mean_error_response_pct": null, "model_rmse_response_pct": null, "n_resolved": 0, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "unique_release_revision_count": 0, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, "d5": { "baseline_mae_response_pct": null, "interval_80_coverage": null, "mae_skill_vs_zero_change_baseline": null, "model_directional_accuracy": null, "model_mae_response_pct": null, "model_mean_error_response_pct": null, "model_rmse_response_pct": null, "n_resolved": 0, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "unique_release_revision_count": 0, "unique_report_release_count": 0 } }, "evaluation_population": "Only forecasts frozen while their target was genuinely open and later resolved from the same fixed contract.", "metric_policy": { "open_forecasts_scored": false, "primary": "MAE response percentage points relative to baseline MAE", "secondary": [ "RMSE", "mean error", "directional accuracy", "80% interval coverage" ] }, "overall": { "baseline_mae_response_pct": null, "interval_80_coverage": null, "mae_skill_vs_zero_change_baseline": null, "model_directional_accuracy": null, "model_mae_response_pct": null, "model_mean_error_response_pct": null, "model_rmse_response_pct": null, "n_resolved": 0, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "unique_release_revision_count": 0, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "profitability_claim": false, "schema_version": "alpha.structural_forecast_scorecard.v1" }, "status": "PASS", "warnings": [] }, "forecast_scorecard": { "baseline": "ZERO_CHANGE_FIXED_CONTRACT_V1", "baseline_name": "ZERO_CHANGE_FIXED_CONTRACT_V1", "breakdowns": [ { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d1", "label": "D1", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d5", "label": "D5", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d20", "label": "D20", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d40", "label": "D40", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 } ], "by_horizon": [ { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d1", "label": "D1", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d5", "label": "D5", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d20", "label": "D20", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d40", "label": "D40", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 } ], "calibration": [], "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "directional_accuracy": null, "forward_resolved_count": 0, "forward_resolved_forecast_count": 0, "forward_test_status": "OPEN_BOOK_NO_FORWARD_RESOLUTIONS", "interval_coverage": null, "mae": null, "mae_skill_vs_baseline": null, "matured_data_pending_count": 0, "mean_bias": null, "open_forecast_count": 0, "performance_status": "UNPROVEN", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "profitability_claim": false, "resolved_forecast_count": 0, "rmse": null, "schema_version": "alpha.structural_forecast_scorecard.v1", "skill_vs_baseline": null, "status": "NO_RESOLVED_FORWARD_FORECASTS", "unique_resolved_release_revision_count": 0, "unique_resolved_report_release_count": 0, "validation_mode": "IMMUTABLE_GENUINELY_FORWARD_OOS" }, "frozen_forecasts": [], "futures_implications": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESES", "generated_at_ct": "2026-07-22T05:50:21.208350-05:00", "headline": { "confidence": "HIGH", "dominant_stage": "placements_vs_meat_availability", "horizon": "current through 18 months", "state": "TIGHTENING_LATER_WITH_MEAT_CUSHIONS_NOW", "text": "The later fed-cattle pipeline is tightening while heavier carcasses and trade flows cushion beef availability now.", "what_changed": "No semantic structural change since the prior frozen vintage." }, "history": { "changed_metric_ids": [], "previous_fingerprint": "f0d470c63fdfab9b44b1f6eb2e6d54c3547daf649a1a8a5fb41afce7f23d251e", "semantic_changed": true, "vintage_count": 24, "vintage_recorded": true }, "live_trade_status": "DISABLED", "max_points": 0, "mode": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "model_card": { "baseline": "Expanding historical mean inside V2 walk-forward diagnostics; zero-change baseline in the immutable forward registry.", "calibration_policy": "No calibrated claim until at least 36 independent genuinely forward report releases and at least 10 unique releases per claimed horizon; correlated role-by-horizon cells and same-report revisions do not count as independent releases. Current status remains NOT_CALIBRATED.", "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "data_sources": [ "USDA NASS COF as-released event rows", "Databento Live Cattle fixed-contract daily bars" ], "evaluation_metrics": [ "MAE", "baseline-relative MAE skill", "directional accuracy", "prediction correlation", "80% interval coverage" ], "fairness_scope": "Not applicable to people; monitor contract-month and market-regime coverage instead.", "feature_families": [ "USDA COF year-over-year release values", "activity-month seasonality" ], "features": [ "on_feed_yoy_delta_pp", "placements_yoy_delta_pp", "marketings_yoy_delta_pp", "activity_month_season_sin", "activity_month_season_cos" ], "governance": { "auto_promotion_path": false, "decision_effect": "NONE", "max_points": 0, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "horizon_definitions": { "d1": "1 actual later fixed-contract session(s)", "d20": "20 actual later fixed-contract 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"Expanding-window ridge regression with fixed-contract event responses", "model_version": "cof-fixed-contract-ridge-v2.1.0", "monitoring": { "baseline_relative_scorecard": true, "calibration_minimum_unique_report_releases": 36, "immutable_forecast_book": true, "open_outcomes_retained": true }, "owner": "Alpha Structural Radar research boundary", "prediction_population": "Highest-volume unexpired Live Cattle fixed contract and the next two listed expiries on the release date.", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "prohibited_uses": [ "WOW Command input", "official decision input", "live trading", "position sizing", "intrinsic fair-value claim" ], "promotion_criteria": [ "At least 36 independent genuinely forward report releases", "At least 10 unique report releases per claimed horizon", "Positive baseline-relative MAE skill with stable directional evidence", "Independent governance review; never automatic promotion" ], "promotion_gate_passed": false, "purpose": "Estimate a conditional fixed-contract price response after a Cattle on Feed release.", "reproducibility": "Each issuance freezes the implementation SHA-256, fitted ridge coefficients/normalization/penalty, exact training-row identity hash, event features, source hashes, and model-spec hash.", "schema_version": "alpha.model_card.structural_futures_v2.v1", "status": "RESEARCH_ONLY_UNVALIDATED", "target": "Nth actual later RTH last-trade close versus same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close before the after-close COF release; these are not official CME settlements.", "target_definition": "Nth actual later RTH last-trade close versus same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close before the after-close COF release; these are not official CME settlements.", "training": { "continuous_or_stitched_prices_used": false, "fixed_contract_only": true, "method": "Ridge regression fit only to fully labeled events available before each prediction timestamp.", "minimum_train_events": 24, "walk_forward_evaluation": true }, "training_cutoff": "Strictly before each prediction release; every included label must also have completed before that release.", "uncertainty": "Residual 10th/90th-percentile response interval where enough walk-forward residuals exist.", "validation_method": "Expanding-window point-in-time walk-forward", "validation_protocol": "Expanding-window, point-in-time walk-forward evaluation against an expanding-mean diagnostic baseline." }, "module": "ALPHA_STRUCTURAL_RADAR_V1", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "previous_vintage_record_hash": "f540edee31a6a4545a47558b740302dccd14c093fbfaeb529f357cfa32c3fab5", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "revision_ledger": [ { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_on_feed_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_placements_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_marketings_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_other_disappearance_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_less_than_600_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_600_699_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_700_799_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_800_899_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_900_999_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_1000_lbs_and_greater", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_head_count_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-21" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-21" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "tuesday_cutout_average_change_pct", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-21" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-04-01" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "intended_heifer_replacements", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-01-01" } ], "schema_version": "1.0.0", "semantic_fingerprint": "957d6ad743dd09a7b82b21d3db2579e0dbe7aa0f63afb43c10df9332e26790f5", "separation_contract": { "auto_promotion_path": false, "calls_decision_components": false, "official_decision_effect": "NONE", "radar_write_root": "/opt/alpha_structural_radar", "reads_decision_outputs": false, "source_root_read_only": "/opt/alpha_current", "wow_command_effect": "NONE", "write_allowlist": [ "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs/structural_radar_status.json", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs/structural_radar_history.json", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/data/structural_radar/vintages.jsonl", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/state/structural_radar.lock" ], "writes_decision_outputs": false }, "source_ledger": [ { "error": null, "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 33, "stale_days": 40, "state": "WATCH", "warn_days": 32 }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-06-18", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "889b47947810b24426d9514ab019227627562391d5d170203b19aa3e56b1843b", "source_id": "USDA_NASS_COF", "source_module": "cattle_on_feed", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/cattle_on_feed_status.json", "upstream_status": "WATCH", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-05", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "0e5106c16b84e6637469f4a840dfe386c827651c66bec358909c1d48e2ad7477", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_TRADE", "source_module": "import_exports", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/import_exports_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "business_release_lag": 0, "calendar_age_days": 0, "expected_report_date": "2026-07-21", "holiday_calendar_note": "Weekday-aware; USDA holiday exceptions may produce WATCH until the next release.", "reason": "Latest expected weekday USDA CEI report is present.", "release_cutoff_ct": "15:45", "report_date": "2026-07-21", "state": "PASS", "status": "PASS", "weekend_aware": true }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-21 after 15:30 CT", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "20c1020635319c61903146c1e3e539203372979cd9384b2894029aa447a00494", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_CEI", "source_module": "ALPHA_PACKER_ECONOMICS_V1", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/packer_economics_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-21", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "266394dbe60981c5bc6c10c4dd824984175fa892abaea5914a3e2ba581b281eb", "source_id": "USDA_APHIS", "source_module": "animal_health", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/animal_health_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "pass_max_days": 2, "state": "PASS", "watch_max_days": 5 }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-21 daily publication", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "48a3f4b3120af021c84ca2b67fc470dca8def32684ba345536c5c1c726d96c13", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_CASH", "source_module": "cash_cattle", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/cash_cattle_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "expected_latest_tuesday": "2026-07-21", "last_refresh_time_ct": "2026-07-21T15:30:10.267234-05:00", "latest_report_date": "2026-07-21", "reason": "Canonical Tuesday afternoon LM_XB403 history is current and complete.", "state": "PASS", "status_error": null, "status_report_date": "2026-07-21", "status_source_fingerprint": "12d63ec0bf6b194a374dd14edf50f9769dac19b2281a15e744611afa108a1a15", "status_source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/boxed_beef/boxed_beef_tuesday_history_status.json" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-21", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "08350f002c4754da76c3d7abbf3a016e2c666573132a735ba1c44f5a100be7e8", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_BOXED_TUESDAY", "source_module": "boxed_beef_tuesday_history", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/boxed_beef/boxed_beef_tuesday_history.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-21T21:30:04", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-17", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "4f05f2e412bb3ee954fa77932ba9c5fab2ba66b750b6139acd44c5d251b932b9", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT", "source_module": "weekly_kill_weights", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/weekly_kill_weights.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "cadence": "Quarterly USDA ERS feeder supply", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-04-01", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "32d71256ffb42497325ea439db5ed6a00752be99019c9ab73562950ad87f581b", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_FEEDER_SUPPLY", "source_module": "ers_feeder_supply", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/ers_livestock_domestic_data/livestock-data-machine-readable-files/FeederCattleSuppliesOutsideFeedlots.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "DERIVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "cadence": "Annual USDA ERS herd replacement", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-01-01", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "281e3d55e23156459116f1b342105d36eb78c6d3295597ee52f60c846528960d", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_HERD_REPLACEMENT", "source_module": "ers_heifer_replacements", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/ers_livestock_domestic_data/livestock-data-machine-readable-files/heifersenteringherd.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" } ], "status": "PASS", "structural_futures_v2": { "cohort_timing_bridge": { "assumptions": { "contract_mapping": "Each possible market-ready day maps to the nearest still-unexpired Feb/Apr/Jun/Aug/Oct/Dec Live Cattle contract midpoint. Expiry uses the last weekday as an approximation and does not encode exchange holidays.", "days_on_feed": { "1000_lbs_and_greater": [ 50, 110 ], "600_699_lbs": [ 170, 230 ], "700_799_lbs": [ 140, 200 ], "800_899_lbs": [ 110, 170 ], "900_999_lbs": [ 80, 140 ], "less_than_600_lbs": [ 190, 250 ] }, "exposure_weighting": "Placement day and days-on-feed are modeled as independent discrete uniform assumptions, then convolved. These are scenario weights, not empirical probabilities.", "interpretation": "Head-equivalent exposure is a timing bridge, not deliverable supply, open interest, fair value, or a price forecast.", "placement_date_uncertainty": "Earliest uses activity-month start; latest uses activity-month end." }, "buckets": [ { "bucket_id": "less_than_600_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 209836.1, "delta_head_equivalent": -9836.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 219672.1, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.655738 }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 110163.9, "delta_head_equivalent": -5163.9, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 115327.9, "symbol": "LEG7", "window_day_share": 0.344262 } ], "current_head": 320000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 250, "minimum": 190 }, "delta_head": -15000, "delta_pct": -4.478, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-11-07", "latest": "2027-02-05" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-11-25", "p50": "2026-12-22", "p90": "2027-01-18", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 335000 }, { "bucket_id": "600_699_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 11549.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -1684.3, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 13233.7, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.048123 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 211189.8, "delta_head_equivalent": -30798.5, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 241988.4, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.879958 }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 17260.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -2517.2, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 19777.9, "symbol": "LEG7", "window_day_share": 0.07192 } ], "current_head": 240000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 230, "minimum": 170 }, "delta_head": -35000, "delta_pct": -12.727, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-10-18", "latest": "2027-01-16" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-11-05", "p50": "2026-12-02", "p90": "2026-12-29", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 275000 }, { "bucket_id": "700_799_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 183606.6, "delta_head_equivalent": -22950.8, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 206557.4, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.459016 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 216393.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -27049.2, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 243442.6, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.540984 } ], "current_head": 400000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 200, "minimum": 140 }, "delta_head": -50000, "delta_pct": -11.111, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-09-18", "latest": "2026-12-17" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-10-06", "p50": "2026-11-02", "p90": "2026-11-29", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 450000 }, { "bucket_id": "800_899_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 21366.5, "delta_head_equivalent": -3464.8, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 24831.3, "symbol": "LEQ6", "window_day_share": 0.048123 }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 382483.3, "delta_head_equivalent": -62024.3, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 444507.7, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.861449 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 40150.2, "delta_head_equivalent": -6510.8, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 46661.0, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.090428 } ], "current_head": 444000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 170, "minimum": 110 }, "delta_head": -72000, "delta_pct": -13.953, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-08-19", "latest": "2026-11-17" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-09-06", "p50": "2026-10-03", "p90": "2026-10-30", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 516000 }, { "bucket_id": "900_999_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 103278.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -2295.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 105573.8, "symbol": "LEQ6", "window_day_share": 0.459016 }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 121721.3, "delta_head_equivalent": -2704.9, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 124426.2, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.540984 } ], "current_head": 225000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 140, "minimum": 80 }, "delta_head": -5000, "delta_pct": -2.174, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-07-20", "latest": "2026-10-18" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-08-07", "p50": "2026-09-03", "p90": "2026-09-30", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 230000 }, { "bucket_id": "1000_lbs_and_greater", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-06", "current_head_equivalent": 2617.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -174.5, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 2792.2, "symbol": "LEM6", "window_day_share": 0.034902 }, { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 65600.2, "delta_head_equivalent": -4373.3, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 69973.6, "symbol": "LEQ6", "window_day_share": 0.874669 }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 6782.1, "delta_head_equivalent": -452.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 7234.3, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.090428 } ], "current_head": 75000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 110, "minimum": 50 }, "delta_head": -5000, "delta_pct": -6.25, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-06-20", "latest": "2026-09-18" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-07-08", "p50": "2026-08-04", "p90": "2026-08-31", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 80000 } ], "comparison": "SAME_ACTIVITY_MONTH_AS_RELEASED_YEAR_OVER_YEAR", "contracts": [ { "contract_month": "2026-06", "current_head_equivalent": 2617.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -174.5, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 2792.2, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEM6" }, { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 190245.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -10133.3, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 200378.6, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEQ6" }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 706142.8, "delta_head_equivalent": -89816.5, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 795959.3, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEV6" }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 677569.5, "delta_head_equivalent": -74194.6, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 751764.1, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEZ6" }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 127424.6, "delta_head_equivalent": -7681.1, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 135105.8, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEG7" } ], "latest_activity_month": "2026-05-01", "latest_release_date": "2026-06-18", "prior_year_activity_month": "2025-05-01", "prior_year_release_date": "2025-06-20", "reconciliations": [ { "actual": 1704000.0, "check_id": "latest_bucket_sum_to_placements", "expected": 1704000.0, "passed": true, "residual_head": 0.0, "tolerance_head": 1000.0 }, { "actual": 1886000.0, "check_id": "prior_bucket_sum_to_placements", "expected": 1886000.0, "passed": true, "residual_head": 0.0, "tolerance_head": 1000.0 }, { "actual": -182000.0, "check_id": "contract_exposure_delta_to_bucket_delta", "expected": -182000.0, "passed": true, "residual_head": 0.0, "tolerance_head": 1.0 } ], "status": "PASS" }, "contract_response_models": { "continuous_or_stitched_prices_used": false, "contract_estimates": [ { "cohort_timing_exposure": { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 190245.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -10133.3, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 200378.6, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEQ6" }, "contract_id": "LE-2026-08", "horizons": [ { "conditional_fair_value": 248.425, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 245.4, 250.825 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d1", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": 0.374873, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-22" }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.676151, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -0.548147, 1.653802 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 248.65, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 242.6, 254.025 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d5", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": -0.273556, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-26" }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.765928, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.683544, 2.951848 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 249.55, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 240.2, 264.075 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d20", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": -8.206687, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-07-20" }, "predicted_response_pct": 1.131717, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -2.650467, 7.024054 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 251.75, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 242.55, 269.175 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d40", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "predicted_response_pct": 2.027405, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.702378, 9.086627 ], "status": "PASS" } ], "role": "near", "symbol": "LEQ6" }, { "cohort_timing_exposure": { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 706142.8, "delta_head_equivalent": -89816.5, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 795959.3, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEV6" }, "contract_id": "LE-2026-10", "horizons": [ { "conditional_fair_value": 241.825, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 239.2, 243.675 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d1", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": 0.531029, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-22" }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.721589, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -0.374333, 1.488104 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 242.075, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 236.45, 246.775 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d5", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": -0.322782, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-26" }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.81965, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.519832, 2.784357 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 242.9, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 233.525, 255.925 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d20", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": -6.997085, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-07-20" }, "predicted_response_pct": 1.16672, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -2.742707, 6.594272 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 245.025, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 236.95, 261.5 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d40", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "predicted_response_pct": 2.053093, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.30899, 8.914597 ], "status": "PASS" } ], "role": "mid", "symbol": "LEV6" }, { "cohort_timing_exposure": { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 677569.5, "delta_head_equivalent": -74194.6, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 751764.1, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEZ6" }, "contract_id": "LE-2026-12", "horizons": [ { "conditional_fair_value": 240.8, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 238.65, 242.325 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d1", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": 0.585468, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-22" }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.697705, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -0.196348, 1.335889 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 241.175, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 235.65, 246.15 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d5", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": -0.230005, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-26" }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.857373, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.450258, 2.941915 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 241.675, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 234.8, 254.525 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d20", "latest_observed_outcome": { 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Later-date corrections are excluded from the report-response panel so they cannot be paired with an already-observed original-report return path; displaced originals are not guaranteed recoverable for every historical USDA correction.", "historical_original_corrections_complete": false, "latest_event_excluded_from_training": true, "model_gate_is_not_operational_gate": true, "numeric_forecast_policy": "No estimate is emitted with insufficient prior history; no model estimate affects WOW or decisions.", "point_in_time_release_timestamps": true, "price_reference_is_official_settlement": false, "price_reference_timestamp_retained": false, "price_rows_filtered_to_as_of_cutoff": true, "price_rows_unique_by_date_contract": true }, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "system_quality_audit": { "accountability_status": "PARTIAL", "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "critical_gates": { "decision_isolation_gate": true, "immutable_registry_gate": true, "no_operational_promotion_gate": true, 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}, { "criterion": "Base structural vintages parse strictly, checkpoint tail loss, and chain new semantic records", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 } ], "label": "Source provenance and semantic integrity", "status": "PASS", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "POINT_IN_TIME", "earned": 12.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Events and prices are filtered to the as-of cutoff", "max_points": 4.0, "passed": true, "points": 4.0 }, { "criterion": "Training labels complete before prediction and latest event is excluded", "max_points": 4.0, "passed": true, "points": 4.0 }, { "criterion": "As-released event timestamps are retained", "max_points": 4.0, "passed": true, "points": 4.0 }, { "criterion": "Daily price reference retains a final-bar timestamp", "max_points": 1.5, "passed": false, "points": 0 }, { "criterion": "Historical original/correction pairs are complete", "max_points": 1.5, "passed": false, "points": 0 } ], "label": "Point-in-time and leakage controls", "limitation": "Capped at 12/15: the daily panel lacks a retained final-bar timestamp and historical original/correction completeness is not guaranteed.", "status": "PARTIAL", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "RECONCILIATION", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "All base observations are typed and reconciliations recompute within explicit units/tolerances", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Placement cohort-to-contract reconciliations recompute within head tolerances", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Accounting and reconciliation", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 }, { "dimension_id": "CONTRACT_HORIZONS", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Fixed contracts are used without continuous stitching", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "A unique, fully estimated near/mid/deferred D1/D5/D20/D40 fixed-contract grid is present", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Contract and horizon specificity", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 }, { "dimension_id": "MODEL_GOVERNANCE", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Operational promotion is false", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 }, { "criterion": "Predictive edge remains explicitly unproven", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 }, { "criterion": "Calibration remains explicitly incomplete", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 }, { "criterion": "Pricing authority and execution points are zero", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 } ], "label": "Model governance without promotion leakage", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 }, { "dimension_id": "FORWARD_ACCOUNTABILITY", "earned": 9.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Append-only registry freeze hashes validate", "max_points": 2.0, "passed": true, "points": 2.0 }, { "criterion": "Prior sibling checkpoint detects single-file tail loss", "max_points": 1.0, "passed": true, "points": 1.0 }, { "criterion": "An external protected/WORM ledger anchor exists", "max_points": 1.0, "passed": false, "points": 0 }, { "criterion": "Forecast IDs are deterministic and issuance is deduplicated", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Open and matured-unresolved outcomes remain explicit and unscored", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "At least 36 independent forward report releases and 10 unique releases per claimed horizon are resolved", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": false, "points": 0 } ], "label": "Immutable forward forecast accountability", "limitation": "0 correlated forecast cells across 0 independent report releases are resolved. Same-report roles, horizons, and revisions do not inflate the independent-release threshold. The sibling checkpoint is best-effort and no external WORM anchor exists; accountability is partial and predictive profitability is not graded.", "status": "PARTIAL", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "OPERATIONAL_ISOLATION", "earned": 15.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Base radar has no decision or WOW effect", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Registry writes only below the sibling radar root and the required runtime permission probe passes", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "No live-trade use, auto-promotion, or execution points", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Operational and WOW Command isolation", "status": "PASS", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "TRANSPARENCY", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Complete model card states purpose, target, data, leakage controls, limitations, and governance", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Scorecard names a frozen baseline and baseline-relative primary metric", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Model-card and baseline transparency", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 } ], "eligibility": { "operational_promotion_eligible": false, "predictive_profitability_grade_eligible": false, "status": "ELIGIBLE_SYSTEM_QUALITY_ONLY", "system_quality_grade_eligible": true }, "explicit_exclusions": [ "predictive profitability", "tradable edge", "live execution quality", "risk-adjusted returns" ], "max_points": 0, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "profitability_claim": false, "rubric_id": "ALPHA_SYSTEM_QUALITY_NON_PROFITABILITY_V1", "schema_version": "alpha.system_quality_audit.v1", "scope": "SYSTEM_DESIGN_DATA_INTEGRITY_GOVERNANCE_AND_ACCOUNTABILITY", "score": { "earned": 91.0, "grade": "A-", "maximum": 100.0, "normalized_10": 9.1 }, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "theses": [ { "active_alert_ids": [ "later_fed_pipeline_tightening", "weight_offsets_head_decline", "trade_cushions_domestic_availability" ], "confirmation": "Later marketings and slaughter tighten after placement cohorts roll forward while meat cushions fade.", "contradictions": [ "cof_on_feed_head", "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs" ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "cof_placements_head", "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "beef_exports_ytd_cwe" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "current through 18 months", "invalidation": "Placements recover or meat availability remains ample enough to prevent the expected tightening.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "PRIMARY_WORKING_HYPOTHESIS", "state": "TIGHTENING_LATER_WITH_MEAT_CUSHIONS_NOW", "thesis_id": "later_head_tightness_near_meat_cushion", "title": "Later fed-cattle tightness, buffered near-term beef availability" }, { "confirmation": "Weights, imports, dairy-beef supply, or weak exports continue replacing domestic fed-cattle tonnage.", "contradictions": [ "cof_placements_head", "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots" ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "current through 12 months", "invalidation": "Weights normalize and trade cushions reverse before placements recover.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "COMPETING_HYPOTHESIS", "thesis_id": "meat_availability_outlasts_head_shortage", "title": "Beef availability stays adequate longer than cattle head counts imply" }, { "confirmation": "Verified capacity exits or sustained shift reductions tighten the hook-to-cattle balance.", "contradictions": [ "No verified plant closure is inferred from margin data alone." ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "cof_marketings_head", "weekly_fi_slaughter_head" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "3-24 months", "invalidation": "Margins recover and observed capacity remains stable.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "COMPETING_HYPOTHESIS", "thesis_id": "capacity_rationalization_changes_leverage", "title": "Processing-capacity rationalization changes packer and feedyard leverage" } ], "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "validation": { "all_units_typed": true, "decision_effect": "NONE", "failed_reconciliations": [], "futures_pricing_model_active": false, "maximum_execution_points": 0, "missing_core_metrics": [], "missing_inputs": [], "numeric_forecast_policy": "No forward numeric value is emitted until an independently validated model supplies it.", "point_in_time_only": true, "promotion_gate_passed": false, "semantic_vintage_chain_validation": "PASS_WITH_LEGACY_PREFIX", "semantic_vintage_checkpoint_prior_state": "PASS", "semantic_vintage_checkpoint_validation": "PASS", "semantic_vintage_external_anchor_present": false, "semantic_vintage_parse_strict": true, "semantic_vintages": true, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "vintage_record_hash": "a553e61b9195f5434cfb6beadbaec046bc27779f9236249f1c132597edae3c23", "warnings": [] }, { "balance_sheet": { "as_of": "2026-07-22", "periods": [ { "period": "Current feedlot inventory", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current fed-cattle inventory.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 34, "stale_days": 40, "state": "WATCH", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Cattle on feed", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_on_feed_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "feedlot_inventory", "unit": "head", "value": 11682000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": 2.0 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Incoming placement pipeline", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Incoming fed-cattle pipeline.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 34, "stale_days": 40, "state": "WATCH", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Monthly placements", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_placements_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "incoming_pipeline", "unit": "head", "value": 1704000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -10.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 34, "stale_days": 40, "state": "WATCH", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements under 600 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_less_than_600_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 320000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 34, "stale_days": 40, "state": "WATCH", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 600-699 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_600_699_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 240000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 34, "stale_days": 40, "state": "WATCH", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 700-799 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_700_799_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 400000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 34, "stale_days": 40, "state": "WATCH", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 800-899 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_800_899_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 444000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 34, "stale_days": 40, "state": "WATCH", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 900-999 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_900_999_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 225000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 34, "stale_days": 40, "state": "WATCH", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 1,000+ lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_1000_lbs_and_greater", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 75000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "USDA ERS-derived feeder-cattle reservoir outside feedlots; lower inventory can constrain future placements.", "freshness": { "cadence": "Quarterly USDA ERS feeder supply", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Feeder cattle outside feedlots", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_FEEDER_SUPPLY" ], "stage": "feeder_supply", "unit": "thousand_head", "value": 18776.97, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-04-01", "yoy_pct": 2.2631 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Fed-cattle outflow and meat production", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Fed-cattle outflow toward slaughter.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 34, "stale_days": 40, "state": "WATCH", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Monthly marketings", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_marketings_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "fed_outflow", "unit": "head", "value": 1551000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -12.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Non-marketing feedlot disappearance.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 34, "stale_days": 40, "state": "WATCH", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Other disappearance", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_other_disappearance_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "fed_outflow", "unit": "head", "value": 55000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -11.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Observed weekly cattle head throughput.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-22T21:30:04", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Weekly federally inspected slaughter", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "slaughter", "unit": "head", "value": 525000.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "yoy_pct": -7.4074 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Pounds produced per slaughtered animal.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-22T21:30:04", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Average dressed weight", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "yield", "unit": "lb_per_head", "value": 887.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "yoy_pct": 2.662 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Observed weekly beef output combines head throughput and carcass yield.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-22T21:30:04", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Weekly beef production", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "meat_output", "unit": "million_lb", "value": 464.5, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "yoy_pct": -5.0491 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Counterfactual pounds effect holding year-ago dressed weight constant.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-22T21:30:04", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Head-count contribution to weekly production change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_head_count_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "production_bridge", "unit": "million_lb", "value": -36.288, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Incremental pounds attributable to the dressed-weight change at current slaughter.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-22T21:30:04", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Dressed-weight contribution to weekly production change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "production_bridge", "unit": "million_lb", "value": 12.075, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "yoy_pct": null } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Trade and domestic availability", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Imported beef adds to domestic carcass-weight-equivalent availability.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date beef imports", "metadata": { "ytd_comparable": true, "ytd_through_month": 5 }, "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 2754566570.58, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": 9.9 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Exported beef removes product from domestic availability while reflecting foreign demand.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date beef exports", "metadata": { "ytd_comparable": true, "ytd_through_month": 5 }, "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 978518541.27, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": -17.2 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Imports less exports; this is a product-availability measure, not a fed-cattle-equivalent count.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date net beef imports", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 1776048029.31, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": -2.3381, "economic_read": "Weekly wholesale movement; descriptive context only because its futures validation gate has not passed.", "freshness": { "expected_latest_tuesday": "2026-07-21", "last_refresh_time_ct": "2026-07-22T14:20:16.416347-05:00", "latest_report_date": "2026-07-21", "reason": "Canonical Tuesday afternoon LM_XB403 history is current and complete.", "state": "PASS", "status_error": null, "status_report_date": "2026-07-21", "status_source_fingerprint": "e6bdbe15f174d0f6951242a4ce2db7c4bdb48a31f51f50442c7464b635d9a8de", "status_source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/boxed_beef/boxed_beef_tuesday_history_status.json" }, "label": "Tuesday Choice/Select average weekly change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "tuesday_cutout_average_change_pct", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_BOXED_TUESDAY" ], "stage": "wholesale_demand", "unit": "percent", "value": -2.3381, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-21", "yoy_pct": null } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Capacity, cash, herd, and policy context", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Standardized box-minus-live operating-spread proxy; not company net income and not a futures timing signal.", "freshness": { "business_release_lag": 0, "calendar_age_days": 0, "expected_report_date": "2026-07-22", "holiday_calendar_note": "Weekday-aware; USDA holiday exceptions may produce WATCH until the next release.", "reason": "Latest expected weekday USDA CEI report is present.", "release_cutoff_ct": "15:45", "report_date": "2026-07-22", "state": "PASS", "status": "PASS", "weekend_aware": true }, "label": "USDA CEI gross packer spread", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_CEI" ], "stage": "processing_economics", "unit": "usd_per_cwt_carcass", "value": -4.9906, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-22", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current operating status constrains or restores feeder-cattle inflow; duration and price impact are not assumed.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Southern livestock port status", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "source_ids": [ "USDA_APHIS" ], "stage": "biological_policy", "unit": "status", "value": "CLOSED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-22", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current cash transmission and feedyard/packer leverage context.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "pass_max_days": 2, "state": "PASS", "watch_max_days": 5 }, "label": "Blended live cash cattle", "metadata": { "change_vs_last_week_usd_per_cwt": -7.39 }, "metric_id": "blended_live_cash", "revision_status": "NEW_BASELINE", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_CASH" ], "stage": "cash_transmission", "unit": "usd_per_cwt_live", "value": 231.38, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-22", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Replacement intentions inform herd rebuilding capacity; they do not guarantee retained females or calf-crop growth.", "freshness": { "cadence": "Annual USDA ERS herd replacement", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Intended heifer replacements", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "intended_heifer_replacements", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_HERD_REPLACEMENT" ], "stage": "breeding_herd", "unit": "thousand_head", "value": 8618.8, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-01-01", "yoy_pct": 0.361 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" } ], "reconciliations": [ { "actual": 1704000.0, "check_id": "cof_placement_buckets", "expected": 1704000.0, "name": "Placement weight buckets sum to placements", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 1000.0, "unit": "head" }, { "actual": 11682000.0, "check_id": "cof_head_flow", "expected": 11682000.0, "name": "Opening inventory plus placements less outflows equals closing inventory", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 1000.0, "unit": "head" }, { "actual": 464.5, "check_id": "weekly_production_bridge", "expected": 464.98699999999997, "name": "Year-ago production plus head effect plus weight effect reconciles to current production", "passed": true, "residual": -0.487, "tolerance": 2.3225000000000002, "unit": "million_lb" }, { "actual": 1776048029.31, "check_id": "net_trade_identity", "expected": 1776048029.31, "name": "Imports less exports equals net imports", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 0.01, "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent" } ], "status": "RECONCILED", "summary": { "beef_supply_change_pct": -5.0491, "dressed_weight_yoy_pct": 2.662, "exports_ytd_change_pct": -17.2, "imports_ytd_change_pct": 9.9, "observation_count": 24, "reconciliation_count": 4, "reconciliation_pass_count": 4, "slaughter_yoy_pct": -7.4074, "source_count": 9, "source_ledger_row_count": 9, "status": "RECONCILED", "weight_offset_of_head_decline_pct": 33.28 }, "unit_policy": "No cattle-head-to-beef-pound conversion is made without an exposed observed weight or typed derivation." }, "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "change_alerts": [ { "alert_id": "later_fed_pipeline_tightening", "counter_evidence": "Current cattle on feed are +2.0% YoY.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "TIGHTENING_LATER", "horizon": "3-18 months", "invalidation": "Placements and feeder availability normalize, or the livestock-border constraint is formally removed.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "WATCH", "summary": "The later fed-cattle pipeline is tightening, but this is not a futures signal.", "triggers": [ { "label": "Placements -10.0% YoY", "metric_id": "cof_placements_head" }, { "label": "Southern livestock ports closed", "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports" } ] }, { "alert_id": "weight_offsets_head_decline", "counter_evidence": "Reported weekly beef production remains -5.0% YoY.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "MEAT_CUSHION", "horizon": "current to 3 months", "invalidation": "Dressed weights stop offsetting lower head throughput.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "ACTIVE", "summary": "Heavier carcasses are replacing part of the beef tonnage lost to lower slaughter.", "triggers": [ { "label": "Slaughter -7.4% YoY", "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head" }, { "label": "Dressed weight +2.7% YoY", "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs" } ] }, { "alert_id": "trade_cushions_domestic_availability", "counter_evidence": "Product mix and imported lean are not fully interchangeable with Choice fed-beef cuts.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "DOMESTIC_AVAILABILITY_CUSHION", "horizon": "current to 6 months", "invalidation": "Imports reverse lower and exports recover enough to remove the net availability cushion.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "ACTIVE", "summary": "Trade flows are cushioning domestic beef availability despite tighter cattle head counts.", "triggers": [ { "label": "YTD imports +9.9%", "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe" }, { "label": "YTD exports -17.2%", "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe" } ] }, { "alert_id": "processing_margin_pressure", "counter_evidence": "The CEI proxy is not company net income and plant-level economics vary.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "CAPACITY_RATIONALIZATION_RISK", "horizon": "current to 6 months", "invalidation": "Gross spreads recover persistently without a capacity reduction.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "WATCH", "summary": "Negative standardized packer spread and changing cash leverage keep capacity rationalization risk active.", "triggers": [ { "label": "CEI spread -4.99/cwt", "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass" }, { "label": "Cash weekly change -7.39/cwt", "metric_id": "blended_live_cash" } ] } ], "composer_contract": { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "composer_version": "alpha.structural_radar.composer.v2.0.0", "decision_effect": "NONE", "max_points": 0, "mode": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "conditional_contract_estimates": { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "contract_estimates": [ { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 245.4, 250.825 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 248.425, "contract_role": "near", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-06-19T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d1", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": 0.374873, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-22" }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 246.75, "predicted_response_pct": 0.676151, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-08", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -0.548147, 1.653802 ], "symbol": "LEQ6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 242.6, 254.025 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 248.65, "contract_role": "near", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-06-25T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d5", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": -0.273556, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-26" }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 246.75, "predicted_response_pct": 0.765928, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-08", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.683544, 2.951848 ], "symbol": "LEQ6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 240.2, 264.075 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 249.55, "contract_role": "near", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-07-16T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d20", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": -8.206687, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-07-20" }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 246.75, "predicted_response_pct": 1.131717, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-08", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -2.650467, 7.024054 ], "symbol": "LEQ6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 242.55, 269.175 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 251.75, "contract_role": "near", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": 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"CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-07-16T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d20", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": -6.743335, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-07-20" }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 239.125, "predicted_response_pct": 1.06329, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-12", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.805714, 6.442563 ], "symbol": "LEZ6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 232.9, 258.5 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 243.8, "contract_role": "deferred", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-08-13T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d40", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "status": "OPEN_OR_NOT_YET_OBSERVABLE", "target_date": null }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 239.125, "predicted_response_pct": 1.958683, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-12", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -2.607012, 8.100815 ], "symbol": "LEZ6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" } ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "definition": "Conditional fixed-contract COF report-response estimates, never intrinsic fair value or trade instructions.", "max_points": 0, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": 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unique releases per claimed horizon; correlated role-by-horizon cells and same-report revisions do not count as independent releases. 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"training_cutoff": "Strictly before each prediction release; every included label must also have completed before that release.", "uncertainty": "Residual 10th/90th-percentile response interval where enough walk-forward residuals exist.", "validation_method": "Expanding-window point-in-time walk-forward", "validation_protocol": "Expanding-window, point-in-time walk-forward evaluation against an expanding-mean diagnostic baseline." }, "module": "ALPHA_STRUCTURAL_RADAR_V1", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "previous_vintage_record_hash": "a553e61b9195f5434cfb6beadbaec046bc27779f9236249f1c132597edae3c23", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "revision_ledger": [ { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_on_feed_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_placements_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_marketings_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_other_disappearance_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_less_than_600_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_600_699_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_700_799_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_800_899_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_900_999_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_1000_lbs_and_greater", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_head_count_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Period advanced from 2026-07-21 to 2026-07-22.", "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "vintage_date": "2026-07-22" }, { "detail": "Period advanced from 2026-07-21 to 2026-07-22.", "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "vintage_date": "2026-07-22" }, { "detail": "First frozen observation for this metric.", "metric_id": "blended_live_cash", "revision_status": "NEW_BASELINE", "vintage_date": "2026-07-22" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "tuesday_cutout_average_change_pct", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-21" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-04-01" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "intended_heifer_replacements", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-01-01" } ], "schema_version": "1.0.0", "semantic_fingerprint": "aa4677afd29c25764ed9f6f8f7a0e7f8b73900202ee79fdf2c3b6658842e0997", "separation_contract": { "auto_promotion_path": false, "calls_decision_components": false, "official_decision_effect": "NONE", "radar_write_root": "/opt/alpha_structural_radar", "reads_decision_outputs": false, "source_root_read_only": "/opt/alpha_current", "wow_command_effect": "NONE", "write_allowlist": [ "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs/structural_radar_status.json", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs/structural_radar_history.json", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/data/structural_radar/vintages.jsonl", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/state/structural_radar.lock" ], "writes_decision_outputs": false }, "source_ledger": [ { "error": null, "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 34, "stale_days": 40, "state": "WATCH", "warn_days": 32 }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-06-18", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "2408d9c5426a2a5b00c3666c948005ca959babf71bfdf03c24b649ce2248fe1a", "source_id": "USDA_NASS_COF", "source_module": "cattle_on_feed", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/cattle_on_feed_status.json", "upstream_status": "WATCH", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-05", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "24688087dc5936640836683eeba748f21c38e5c4666babb78ab1a7d1e7972aab", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_TRADE", "source_module": "import_exports", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/import_exports_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "business_release_lag": 0, "calendar_age_days": 0, "expected_report_date": "2026-07-22", "holiday_calendar_note": "Weekday-aware; USDA holiday exceptions may produce WATCH until the next release.", "reason": "Latest expected weekday USDA CEI report is present.", "release_cutoff_ct": "15:45", "report_date": "2026-07-22", "state": "PASS", "status": "PASS", "weekend_aware": true }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-22 after 15:30 CT", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "d88d62a9fe1a03f7af0b651d6958cfd670718bf6bdc9b5bd9241007a05c1112d", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_CEI", "source_module": "ALPHA_PACKER_ECONOMICS_V1", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/packer_economics_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-22", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "42f1eeca733f9897f3bfe37b61ad94dda80d60ef950e8ac22e45589e618dbc0a", "source_id": "USDA_APHIS", "source_module": "animal_health", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/animal_health_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "pass_max_days": 2, "state": "PASS", "watch_max_days": 5 }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-22 daily publication", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "f36e328784d930c6890ba05a5327f074a9bbdbbc76af28fce1529d2f7ffdfe08", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_CASH", "source_module": "cash_cattle", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/cash_cattle_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "expected_latest_tuesday": "2026-07-21", "last_refresh_time_ct": "2026-07-22T14:20:16.416347-05:00", "latest_report_date": "2026-07-21", "reason": "Canonical Tuesday afternoon LM_XB403 history is current and complete.", "state": "PASS", "status_error": null, "status_report_date": "2026-07-21", "status_source_fingerprint": "e6bdbe15f174d0f6951242a4ce2db7c4bdb48a31f51f50442c7464b635d9a8de", "status_source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/boxed_beef/boxed_beef_tuesday_history_status.json" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-21", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "121b8a77d62ff30b5f1afd71ffe2611cc9375d4ecb3ae97aa333016d12fc05cf", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_BOXED_TUESDAY", "source_module": "boxed_beef_tuesday_history", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/boxed_beef/boxed_beef_tuesday_history.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-22T21:30:04", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-17", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "ac57b36fee6fce018b308c489ee8d4884c5e3232c3c1bab3acf0eebd27da19f8", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT", "source_module": "weekly_kill_weights", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/weekly_kill_weights.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "cadence": "Quarterly USDA ERS feeder supply", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-04-01", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "32d71256ffb42497325ea439db5ed6a00752be99019c9ab73562950ad87f581b", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_FEEDER_SUPPLY", "source_module": "ers_feeder_supply", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/ers_livestock_domestic_data/livestock-data-machine-readable-files/FeederCattleSuppliesOutsideFeedlots.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "DERIVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "cadence": "Annual USDA ERS herd replacement", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-01-01", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "281e3d55e23156459116f1b342105d36eb78c6d3295597ee52f60c846528960d", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_HERD_REPLACEMENT", "source_module": "ers_heifer_replacements", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/ers_livestock_domestic_data/livestock-data-machine-readable-files/heifersenteringherd.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" } ], "status": "PASS", "structural_futures_v2": { "cohort_timing_bridge": { "assumptions": { "contract_mapping": "Each possible market-ready day maps to the nearest still-unexpired Feb/Apr/Jun/Aug/Oct/Dec Live Cattle contract midpoint. Expiry uses the last weekday as an approximation and does not encode exchange holidays.", "days_on_feed": { "1000_lbs_and_greater": [ 50, 110 ], "600_699_lbs": [ 170, 230 ], "700_799_lbs": [ 140, 200 ], "800_899_lbs": [ 110, 170 ], "900_999_lbs": [ 80, 140 ], "less_than_600_lbs": [ 190, 250 ] }, "exposure_weighting": "Placement day and days-on-feed are modeled as independent discrete uniform assumptions, then convolved. These are scenario weights, not empirical probabilities.", "interpretation": "Head-equivalent exposure is a timing bridge, not deliverable supply, open interest, fair value, or a price forecast.", "placement_date_uncertainty": "Earliest uses activity-month start; latest uses activity-month end." }, "buckets": [ { "bucket_id": "less_than_600_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 209836.1, "delta_head_equivalent": -9836.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 219672.1, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.655738 }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 110163.9, "delta_head_equivalent": -5163.9, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 115327.9, "symbol": "LEG7", "window_day_share": 0.344262 } ], "current_head": 320000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 250, "minimum": 190 }, "delta_head": -15000, "delta_pct": -4.478, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-11-07", "latest": "2027-02-05" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-11-25", "p50": "2026-12-22", "p90": "2027-01-18", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 335000 }, { "bucket_id": "600_699_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 11549.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -1684.3, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 13233.7, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.048123 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 211189.8, "delta_head_equivalent": -30798.5, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 241988.4, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.879958 }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 17260.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -2517.2, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 19777.9, "symbol": "LEG7", "window_day_share": 0.07192 } ], "current_head": 240000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 230, "minimum": 170 }, "delta_head": -35000, "delta_pct": -12.727, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-10-18", "latest": "2027-01-16" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-11-05", "p50": "2026-12-02", "p90": "2026-12-29", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 275000 }, { "bucket_id": "700_799_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 183606.6, "delta_head_equivalent": -22950.8, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 206557.4, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.459016 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 216393.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -27049.2, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 243442.6, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.540984 } ], "current_head": 400000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 200, "minimum": 140 }, "delta_head": -50000, "delta_pct": -11.111, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-09-18", "latest": "2026-12-17" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-10-06", "p50": "2026-11-02", "p90": "2026-11-29", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 450000 }, { "bucket_id": "800_899_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 21366.5, "delta_head_equivalent": -3464.8, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 24831.3, "symbol": "LEQ6", "window_day_share": 0.048123 }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 382483.3, "delta_head_equivalent": -62024.3, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 444507.7, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.861449 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 40150.2, "delta_head_equivalent": -6510.8, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 46661.0, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.090428 } ], "current_head": 444000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 170, "minimum": 110 }, "delta_head": -72000, "delta_pct": -13.953, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-08-19", "latest": "2026-11-17" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-09-06", "p50": "2026-10-03", "p90": "2026-10-30", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 516000 }, { "bucket_id": "900_999_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 103278.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -2295.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 105573.8, "symbol": "LEQ6", "window_day_share": 0.459016 }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 121721.3, "delta_head_equivalent": -2704.9, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 124426.2, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.540984 } ], "current_head": 225000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 140, "minimum": 80 }, "delta_head": -5000, "delta_pct": -2.174, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-07-20", "latest": "2026-10-18" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-08-07", "p50": "2026-09-03", "p90": "2026-09-30", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 230000 }, { "bucket_id": "1000_lbs_and_greater", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-06", "current_head_equivalent": 2617.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -174.5, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 2792.2, "symbol": "LEM6", "window_day_share": 0.034902 }, { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 65600.2, "delta_head_equivalent": -4373.3, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 69973.6, "symbol": "LEQ6", "window_day_share": 0.874669 }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 6782.1, "delta_head_equivalent": -452.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 7234.3, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.090428 } ], "current_head": 75000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 110, "minimum": 50 }, "delta_head": -5000, "delta_pct": -6.25, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-06-20", "latest": "2026-09-18" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-07-08", "p50": "2026-08-04", "p90": "2026-08-31", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 80000 } ], "comparison": "SAME_ACTIVITY_MONTH_AS_RELEASED_YEAR_OVER_YEAR", "contracts": [ { "contract_month": "2026-06", "current_head_equivalent": 2617.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -174.5, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 2792.2, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEM6" }, { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 190245.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -10133.3, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 200378.6, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEQ6" }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 706142.8, "delta_head_equivalent": -89816.5, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 795959.3, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEV6" }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 677569.5, "delta_head_equivalent": -74194.6, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 751764.1, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEZ6" }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 127424.6, "delta_head_equivalent": -7681.1, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 135105.8, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEG7" } ], "latest_activity_month": "2026-05-01", "latest_release_date": "2026-06-18", "prior_year_activity_month": "2025-05-01", "prior_year_release_date": "2025-06-20", "reconciliations": [ { "actual": 1704000.0, "check_id": "latest_bucket_sum_to_placements", "expected": 1704000.0, "passed": true, "residual_head": 0.0, "tolerance_head": 1000.0 }, { "actual": 1886000.0, "check_id": "prior_bucket_sum_to_placements", "expected": 1886000.0, "passed": true, "residual_head": 0.0, "tolerance_head": 1000.0 }, { "actual": -182000.0, "check_id": "contract_exposure_delta_to_bucket_delta", "expected": -182000.0, "passed": true, "residual_head": 0.0, "tolerance_head": 1.0 } ], "status": "PASS" }, "contract_response_models": { "continuous_or_stitched_prices_used": false, "contract_estimates": [ { "cohort_timing_exposure": { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 190245.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -10133.3, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 200378.6, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEQ6" }, "contract_id": "LE-2026-08", "horizons": [ { "conditional_fair_value": 248.425, 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"UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "fair_value_definition": "Same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close multiplied by the estimated report-response return; not an official settlement, intrinsic value, or promoted forecast.", "feature_names": [ "on_feed_yoy_delta_pp", "placements_yoy_delta_pp", "marketings_yoy_delta_pp", "season_sin", "season_cos" ], "fitted_artifact": { "artifact_sha256": "7e4c7d90dacb4a2a4364f1162a2ceb59b0d98f66ea9d9cb620e960f0c21dcf5c", "coefficients_intercept_first": [ 1.637046266685, -0.887110174762, -0.195111224833, -0.317762161399, 0.50808229049, -0.293302016189 ], "feature_means": [ -0.32, -1.693333333333, -1.506666666667, 0.044880338717, 0.031547005384 ], "feature_names": [ "on_feed_yoy_delta_pp", "placements_yoy_delta_pp", "marketings_yoy_delta_pp", "season_sin", "season_cos" ], "feature_scales": [ 2.104978226332, 8.176345285164, 8.314442588385, 0.700941572836, 0.711105796009 ], "ridge_penalty": 4.0, "training_row_count": 75, "training_row_identity_sha256": "e66dad219c983fde988e04a569aa3adc0fc81d5e37247d97f8854df408c32f52" }, "gate_checks": { "beats_zero_return_baseline": true, "directional_accuracy_at_least_52pct": true, "interval_80_coverage_65_to_90pct": false, "mae_skill_at_least_5pct": false, "n_oos_at_least_36": true, "prediction_correlation_at_least_0_10": false }, "horizon": "d40", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "max_training_label_date": "2026-06-15", "min_train_events": 24, "model_version": "cof-fixed-contract-ridge-v2.1.0", "n_train": 75, "pre_report_close": 239.125, "predicted_response_pct": 1.958683, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-12", "prediction_release_date": "2026-06-18", "prediction_symbol": "LEZ6", "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "research_only": true, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -2.607012, 8.100815 ], "role": "deferred", "status": "PASS", "strictly_prior_training": true, "training_max_release_date": "2026-04-17", "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "walk_forward": { "baseline_mae_return_pct": 3.632719, "directional_accuracy": 0.64, "interval_80_coverage": 0.6, "interval_coverage_n": 35, "mae_return_pct": 3.544136, "mae_skill_vs_expanding_mean": 0.024385, "mae_skill_vs_zero_return": 0.107422, "n_oos": 50, "prediction_correlation": -0.02018, "zero_return_baseline_mae_pct": 3.970674 }, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" } ], "multiplicity_policy": "Twelve role-by-horizon candidates are exposed together; no familywise or FDR gate has passed, so operational promotion is prohibited.", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "statistical_gate_pass_count": 0, "target_definition": "Nth actual later RTH last-trade close versus same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close before the after-close COF release; these are not official CME settlements." }, "decision_effect": "NONE", "errors": [], "headline": "Placement cohorts are mapped to contract windows; price estimates remain conditional and research-only.", "live": false, "max_points": 0, "mode": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "module": "ALPHA_STRUCTURAL_FUTURES_V2", "point_in_time_events": { "as_of_cutoff_ct": "2026-07-22T16:50:41.302385-05:00", "consensus_surprise_available": false, "consensus_surprise_used": false, "event_count": 114, "feature_policy": "Only values printed in the as-released row plus activity-month season terms are features.", "latest_event": { "activity_month": "2026-05-01", "availability_rule": "Feature values become available only at the recorded USDA release timestamp.", "event_id": "795942", "observations": [ { "known_at_ct": "2026-06-18T14:00:00-05:00", "observation_id": "on_feed_yoy_delta_pp", "unit": "percentage_point", "value": 2.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED_RELEASE" }, { "known_at_ct": "2026-06-18T14:00:00-05:00", "observation_id": "placements_yoy_delta_pp", "unit": "percentage_point", "value": -10.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED_RELEASE" }, { "known_at_ct": "2026-06-18T14:00:00-05:00", "observation_id": "marketings_yoy_delta_pp", "unit": "percentage_point", "value": -12.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED_RELEASE" }, { "known_at_ct": "2026-06-18T14:00:00-05:00", "observation_id": "season_sin", "unit": "cyclical_component", "value": 0.5, "value_kind": "DERIVED_FROM_ACTIVITY_MONTH" }, { "known_at_ct": "2026-06-18T14:00:00-05:00", "observation_id": "season_cos", "unit": "cyclical_component", "value": -0.866025, "value_kind": "DERIVED_FROM_ACTIVITY_MONTH" } ], "provenance": { "source_sha256": "da477404f359a36b9d2b412f0dfdeaa4f3b05596c898c0655184124228fa9fbf", "source_url": "https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795942/cofd0626.txt" }, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "release_revision_id": "795942@2026-06-18T14:00:00-05:00", "release_timestamp_ct": "2026-06-18T14:00:00-05:00", "release_timestamp_kind": "RECORDED_SOURCE_TIMESTAMP", "research_only": true, "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false } }, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "research_only": true, "schema_version": "alpha.structural_futures.v2", "semantic_fingerprint": "2811d55d22a1b53972042bb1151f0c4e8f6779c92de2ecbe44cba16d6d2de6bf", "source_ledger": [ { "path": "/opt/alpha_current/data/cattle_on_feed/report_events.csv", "read_only": true, "rows": 114, "sha256": "8c9fa84f4a2ce005f1a3e636a6a01f0051000c3b69de93c11e649ab753fa166b", "source_id": "USDA_NASS_COF_AS_RELEASED" }, { "path": "/opt/alpha_current/data/cattle_on_feed/le_fixed_ohlcv_1d.parquet", "read_only": true, "rows": 14305, "sha256": "644ca584668a9de0eafeb0fab6943281a07f8645c98e75ef3e1211031004617f", "source_id": "DATABENTO_LE_FIXED_CONTRACT_DAILY" } ], "status": "PASS", "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "validation": { "all_training_labels_completed_before_prediction": true, "cohort_reconciliations_passed": true, "corrections_after_response_anchor_excluded": true, "data_status": { "event_rows": 114, "first_event_date": "2017-01-27", "fixed_contract_rows": 14305, "latest_event_date": "2026-06-18", "latest_event_price_reference_available": true, "price_first_date": "2020-01-02", "price_last_date": "2026-07-22", "response_panel_rows": 231 }, "events_filtered_to_as_of_cutoff": true, "historical_correction_policy": "Recorded same-date revisions are cutoff-aware. Later-date corrections are excluded from the report-response panel so they cannot be paired with an already-observed original-report return path; displaced originals are not guaranteed recoverable for every historical USDA correction.", "historical_original_corrections_complete": false, "latest_event_excluded_from_training": true, "model_gate_is_not_operational_gate": true, "numeric_forecast_policy": "No estimate is emitted with insufficient prior history; no model estimate affects WOW or decisions.", "point_in_time_release_timestamps": true, "price_reference_is_official_settlement": false, "price_reference_timestamp_retained": false, "price_rows_filtered_to_as_of_cutoff": true, "price_rows_unique_by_date_contract": true }, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "system_quality_audit": { "accountability_status": "PARTIAL", "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "critical_gates": { "decision_isolation_gate": true, "immutable_registry_gate": true, "no_operational_promotion_gate": true, "no_predictive_skill_claim_gate": true, "overall_health_gate": true, "point_in_time_gate": true, "reconciliation_gate": true, "runtime_permission_probe_gate": true, "source_alignment_and_price_freshness_gate": true, "wow_isolation_gate": true }, "critical_gates_passed": true, "decision_effect": "NONE", "dimensions": [ { "dimension_id": "SOURCE_PROVENANCE", "earned": 15.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "At least eight unique structural sources have explicit non-stale freshness, observed-at values, and fingerprints", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Every base ledger row is identified, fingerprinted, and read-only", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Both required V2 sources are nonempty, read-only, and SHA-256 fingerprinted", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Base COF and V2 latest releases align, and the fixed-contract panel is current", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Base structural vintages parse strictly, checkpoint tail loss, and chain new semantic records", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 } ], "label": "Source provenance and semantic integrity", "status": "PASS", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "POINT_IN_TIME", "earned": 12.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Events and prices are filtered to the as-of cutoff", "max_points": 4.0, "passed": true, "points": 4.0 }, { "criterion": "Training labels complete before prediction and latest event is excluded", "max_points": 4.0, "passed": true, "points": 4.0 }, { "criterion": "As-released event timestamps are retained", "max_points": 4.0, "passed": true, "points": 4.0 }, { "criterion": "Daily price reference retains a final-bar timestamp", "max_points": 1.5, "passed": false, "points": 0 }, { "criterion": "Historical original/correction pairs are complete", "max_points": 1.5, "passed": false, "points": 0 } ], "label": "Point-in-time and leakage controls", "limitation": "Capped at 12/15: the daily panel lacks a retained final-bar timestamp and historical original/correction completeness is not guaranteed.", "status": "PARTIAL", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "RECONCILIATION", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "All base observations are typed and reconciliations recompute within explicit units/tolerances", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Placement cohort-to-contract reconciliations recompute within head tolerances", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Accounting and reconciliation", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 }, { "dimension_id": "CONTRACT_HORIZONS", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Fixed contracts are used without continuous stitching", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "A unique, fully estimated near/mid/deferred D1/D5/D20/D40 fixed-contract grid is present", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Contract and horizon specificity", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 }, { "dimension_id": "MODEL_GOVERNANCE", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Operational promotion is false", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 }, { "criterion": "Predictive edge remains explicitly unproven", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 }, { "criterion": "Calibration remains explicitly incomplete", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 }, { "criterion": "Pricing authority and execution points are zero", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 } ], "label": "Model governance without promotion leakage", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 }, { "dimension_id": "FORWARD_ACCOUNTABILITY", "earned": 9.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Append-only registry freeze hashes validate", "max_points": 2.0, "passed": true, "points": 2.0 }, { "criterion": "Prior sibling checkpoint detects single-file tail loss", "max_points": 1.0, "passed": true, "points": 1.0 }, { "criterion": "An external protected/WORM ledger anchor exists", "max_points": 1.0, "passed": false, "points": 0 }, { "criterion": "Forecast IDs are deterministic and issuance is deduplicated", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Open and matured-unresolved outcomes remain explicit and unscored", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "At least 36 independent forward report releases and 10 unique releases per claimed horizon are resolved", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": false, "points": 0 } ], "label": "Immutable forward forecast accountability", "limitation": "0 correlated forecast cells across 0 independent report releases are resolved. Same-report roles, horizons, and revisions do not inflate the independent-release threshold. The sibling checkpoint is best-effort and no external WORM anchor exists; accountability is partial and predictive profitability is not graded.", "status": "PARTIAL", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "OPERATIONAL_ISOLATION", "earned": 15.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Base radar has no decision or WOW effect", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Registry writes only below the sibling radar root and the required runtime permission probe passes", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "No live-trade use, auto-promotion, or execution points", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Operational and WOW Command isolation", "status": "PASS", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "TRANSPARENCY", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Complete model card states purpose, target, data, leakage controls, limitations, and governance", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Scorecard names a frozen baseline and baseline-relative primary metric", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Model-card and baseline transparency", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 } ], "eligibility": { "operational_promotion_eligible": false, "predictive_profitability_grade_eligible": false, "status": "ELIGIBLE_SYSTEM_QUALITY_ONLY", "system_quality_grade_eligible": true }, "explicit_exclusions": [ "predictive profitability", "tradable edge", "live execution quality", "risk-adjusted returns" ], "max_points": 0, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "profitability_claim": false, "rubric_id": "ALPHA_SYSTEM_QUALITY_NON_PROFITABILITY_V1", "schema_version": "alpha.system_quality_audit.v1", "scope": "SYSTEM_DESIGN_DATA_INTEGRITY_GOVERNANCE_AND_ACCOUNTABILITY", "score": { "earned": 91.0, "grade": "A-", "maximum": 100.0, "normalized_10": 9.1 }, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "theses": [ { "active_alert_ids": [ "later_fed_pipeline_tightening", "weight_offsets_head_decline", "trade_cushions_domestic_availability", "processing_margin_pressure" ], "confirmation": "Later marketings and slaughter tighten after placement cohorts roll forward while meat cushions fade.", "contradictions": [ "cof_on_feed_head", "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs" ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "cof_placements_head", "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "beef_exports_ytd_cwe" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "current through 18 months", "invalidation": "Placements recover or meat availability remains ample enough to prevent the expected tightening.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "PRIMARY_WORKING_HYPOTHESIS", "state": "TIGHTENING_LATER_WITH_MEAT_CUSHIONS_NOW", "thesis_id": "later_head_tightness_near_meat_cushion", "title": "Later fed-cattle tightness, buffered near-term beef availability" }, { "confirmation": "Weights, imports, dairy-beef supply, or weak exports continue replacing domestic fed-cattle tonnage.", "contradictions": [ "cof_placements_head", "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots" ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "current through 12 months", "invalidation": "Weights normalize and trade cushions reverse before placements recover.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "COMPETING_HYPOTHESIS", "thesis_id": "meat_availability_outlasts_head_shortage", "title": "Beef availability stays adequate longer than cattle head counts imply" }, { "confirmation": "Verified capacity exits or sustained shift reductions tighten the hook-to-cattle balance.", "contradictions": [ "No verified plant closure is inferred from margin data alone." ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "cof_marketings_head", "weekly_fi_slaughter_head" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "3-24 months", "invalidation": "Margins recover and observed capacity remains stable.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "COMPETING_HYPOTHESIS", "thesis_id": "capacity_rationalization_changes_leverage", "title": "Processing-capacity rationalization changes packer and feedyard leverage" } ], "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "validation": { "all_units_typed": true, "decision_effect": "NONE", "failed_reconciliations": [], "futures_pricing_model_active": false, "maximum_execution_points": 0, "missing_core_metrics": [], "missing_inputs": [], "numeric_forecast_policy": "No forward numeric value is emitted until an independently validated model supplies it.", "point_in_time_only": true, "promotion_gate_passed": false, "semantic_vintage_chain_validation": "PASS_WITH_LEGACY_PREFIX", "semantic_vintage_checkpoint_prior_state": "PASS", "semantic_vintage_checkpoint_validation": "PASS", "semantic_vintage_external_anchor_present": false, "semantic_vintage_parse_strict": true, "semantic_vintages": true, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "vintage_record_hash": "8f1d6cd377c40494abe6994459f096e0f9974239457db8a91f35efa61f0eff50", "warnings": [] }, { "balance_sheet": { "as_of": "2026-07-22", "periods": [ { "period": "Current feedlot inventory", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current fed-cattle inventory.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 34, "stale_days": 40, "state": "WATCH", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Cattle on feed", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_on_feed_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "feedlot_inventory", "unit": "head", "value": 11682000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": 2.0 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Incoming placement pipeline", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Incoming fed-cattle pipeline.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 34, "stale_days": 40, "state": "WATCH", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Monthly placements", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_placements_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "incoming_pipeline", "unit": "head", "value": 1704000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -10.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 34, "stale_days": 40, "state": "WATCH", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements under 600 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_less_than_600_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 320000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 34, "stale_days": 40, "state": "WATCH", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 600-699 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_600_699_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 240000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 34, "stale_days": 40, "state": "WATCH", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 700-799 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_700_799_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 400000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 34, "stale_days": 40, "state": "WATCH", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 800-899 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_800_899_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 444000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 34, "stale_days": 40, "state": "WATCH", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 900-999 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_900_999_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 225000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 34, "stale_days": 40, "state": "WATCH", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 1,000+ lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_1000_lbs_and_greater", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 75000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "USDA ERS-derived feeder-cattle reservoir outside feedlots; lower inventory can constrain future placements.", "freshness": { "cadence": "Quarterly USDA ERS feeder supply", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Feeder cattle outside feedlots", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_FEEDER_SUPPLY" ], "stage": "feeder_supply", "unit": "thousand_head", "value": 18776.97, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-04-01", "yoy_pct": 2.2631 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Fed-cattle outflow and meat production", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Fed-cattle outflow toward slaughter.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 34, "stale_days": 40, "state": "WATCH", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Monthly marketings", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_marketings_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "fed_outflow", "unit": "head", "value": 1551000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -12.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Non-marketing feedlot disappearance.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 34, "stale_days": 40, "state": "WATCH", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Other disappearance", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_other_disappearance_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "fed_outflow", "unit": "head", "value": 55000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -11.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Observed weekly cattle head throughput.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-22T21:30:04", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Weekly federally inspected slaughter", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "slaughter", "unit": "head", "value": 525000.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "yoy_pct": -7.4074 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Pounds produced per slaughtered animal.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-22T21:30:04", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Average dressed weight", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "yield", "unit": "lb_per_head", "value": 887.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "yoy_pct": 2.662 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Observed weekly beef output combines head throughput and carcass yield.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-22T21:30:04", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Weekly beef production", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "meat_output", "unit": "million_lb", "value": 464.5, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "yoy_pct": -5.0491 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Counterfactual pounds effect holding year-ago dressed weight constant.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-22T21:30:04", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Head-count contribution to weekly production change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_head_count_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "production_bridge", "unit": "million_lb", "value": -36.288, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Incremental pounds attributable to the dressed-weight change at current slaughter.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-22T21:30:04", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Dressed-weight contribution to weekly production change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "production_bridge", "unit": "million_lb", "value": 12.075, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "yoy_pct": null } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Trade and domestic availability", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Imported beef adds to domestic carcass-weight-equivalent availability.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date beef imports", "metadata": { "ytd_comparable": true, "ytd_through_month": 5 }, "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 2754566570.58, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": 9.9 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Exported beef removes product from domestic availability while reflecting foreign demand.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date beef exports", "metadata": { "ytd_comparable": true, "ytd_through_month": 5 }, "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 978518541.27, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": -17.2 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Imports less exports; this is a product-availability measure, not a fed-cattle-equivalent count.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date net beef imports", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 1776048029.31, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": -2.3381, "economic_read": "Weekly wholesale movement; descriptive context only because its futures validation gate has not passed.", "freshness": { "expected_latest_tuesday": "2026-07-21", "last_refresh_time_ct": "2026-07-22T14:20:16.416347-05:00", "latest_report_date": "2026-07-21", "reason": "Canonical Tuesday afternoon LM_XB403 history is current and complete.", "state": "PASS", "status_error": null, "status_report_date": "2026-07-21", "status_source_fingerprint": "e6bdbe15f174d0f6951242a4ce2db7c4bdb48a31f51f50442c7464b635d9a8de", "status_source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/boxed_beef/boxed_beef_tuesday_history_status.json" }, "label": "Tuesday Choice/Select average weekly change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "tuesday_cutout_average_change_pct", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_BOXED_TUESDAY" ], "stage": "wholesale_demand", "unit": "percent", "value": -2.3381, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-21", "yoy_pct": null } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Capacity, cash, herd, and policy context", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Standardized box-minus-live operating-spread proxy; not company net income and not a futures timing signal.", "freshness": { "business_release_lag": 0, "calendar_age_days": 0, "expected_report_date": "2026-07-22", "holiday_calendar_note": "Weekday-aware; USDA holiday exceptions may produce WATCH until the next release.", "reason": "Latest expected weekday USDA CEI report is present.", "release_cutoff_ct": "15:45", "report_date": "2026-07-22", "state": "PASS", "status": "PASS", "weekend_aware": true }, "label": "USDA CEI gross packer spread", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_CEI" ], "stage": "processing_economics", "unit": "usd_per_cwt_carcass", "value": -4.9906, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-22", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current operating status constrains or restores feeder-cattle inflow; duration and price impact are not assumed.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Southern livestock port status", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_APHIS" ], "stage": "biological_policy", "unit": "status", "value": "CLOSED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-22", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current cash transmission and feedyard/packer leverage context.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "pass_max_days": 2, "state": "PASS", "watch_max_days": 5 }, "label": "Blended live cash cattle", "metadata": { "change_vs_last_week_usd_per_cwt": -7.39 }, "metric_id": "blended_live_cash", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_CASH" ], "stage": "cash_transmission", "unit": "usd_per_cwt_live", "value": 231.38, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-22", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Replacement intentions inform herd rebuilding capacity; they do not guarantee retained females or calf-crop growth.", "freshness": { "cadence": "Annual USDA ERS herd replacement", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Intended heifer replacements", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "intended_heifer_replacements", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_HERD_REPLACEMENT" ], "stage": "breeding_herd", "unit": "thousand_head", "value": 8618.8, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-01-01", "yoy_pct": 0.361 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" } ], "reconciliations": [ { "actual": 1704000.0, "check_id": "cof_placement_buckets", "expected": 1704000.0, "name": "Placement weight buckets sum to placements", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 1000.0, "unit": "head" }, { "actual": 11682000.0, "check_id": "cof_head_flow", "expected": 11682000.0, "name": "Opening inventory plus placements less outflows equals closing inventory", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 1000.0, "unit": "head" }, { "actual": 464.5, "check_id": "weekly_production_bridge", "expected": 464.98699999999997, "name": "Year-ago production plus head effect plus weight effect reconciles to current production", "passed": true, "residual": -0.487, "tolerance": 2.3225000000000002, "unit": "million_lb" }, { "actual": 1776048029.31, "check_id": "net_trade_identity", "expected": 1776048029.31, "name": "Imports less exports equals net imports", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 0.01, "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent" } ], "status": "RECONCILED", "summary": { "beef_supply_change_pct": -5.0491, "dressed_weight_yoy_pct": 2.662, "exports_ytd_change_pct": -17.2, "imports_ytd_change_pct": 9.9, "observation_count": 24, "reconciliation_count": 4, "reconciliation_pass_count": 4, "slaughter_yoy_pct": -7.4074, "source_count": 9, "source_ledger_row_count": 9, "status": "RECONCILED", "weight_offset_of_head_decline_pct": 33.28 }, "unit_policy": "No cattle-head-to-beef-pound conversion is made without an exposed observed weight or typed derivation." }, "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "change_alerts": [ { "alert_id": "later_fed_pipeline_tightening", "counter_evidence": "Current cattle on feed are +2.0% YoY.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "TIGHTENING_LATER", "horizon": "3-18 months", "invalidation": "Placements and feeder availability normalize, or the livestock-border constraint is formally removed.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "WATCH", "summary": "The later fed-cattle pipeline is tightening, but this is not a futures signal.", "triggers": [ { "label": "Placements -10.0% YoY", "metric_id": "cof_placements_head" }, { "label": "Southern livestock ports closed", "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports" } ] }, { "alert_id": "weight_offsets_head_decline", "counter_evidence": "Reported weekly beef production remains -5.0% YoY.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "MEAT_CUSHION", "horizon": "current to 3 months", "invalidation": "Dressed weights stop offsetting lower head throughput.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "ACTIVE", "summary": "Heavier carcasses are replacing part of the beef tonnage lost to lower slaughter.", "triggers": [ { "label": "Slaughter -7.4% YoY", "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head" }, { "label": "Dressed weight +2.7% YoY", "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs" } ] }, { "alert_id": "trade_cushions_domestic_availability", "counter_evidence": "Product mix and imported lean are not fully interchangeable with Choice fed-beef cuts.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "DOMESTIC_AVAILABILITY_CUSHION", "horizon": "current to 6 months", "invalidation": "Imports reverse lower and exports recover enough to remove the net availability cushion.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "ACTIVE", "summary": "Trade flows are cushioning domestic beef availability despite tighter cattle head counts.", "triggers": [ { "label": "YTD imports +9.9%", "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe" }, { "label": "YTD exports -17.2%", "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe" } ] }, { "alert_id": "processing_margin_pressure", "counter_evidence": "The CEI proxy is not company net income and plant-level economics vary.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "CAPACITY_RATIONALIZATION_RISK", "horizon": "current to 6 months", "invalidation": "Gross spreads recover persistently without a capacity reduction.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "WATCH", "summary": "Negative standardized packer spread and changing cash leverage keep capacity rationalization risk active.", "triggers": [ { "label": "CEI spread -4.99/cwt", "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass" }, { "label": "Cash weekly change -7.39/cwt", "metric_id": "blended_live_cash" } ] } ], "composer_contract": { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "composer_version": "alpha.structural_radar.composer.v2.0.0", "decision_effect": "NONE", "max_points": 0, "mode": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "conditional_contract_estimates": { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "contract_estimates": [ { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 245.4, 250.825 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 248.425, "contract_role": "near", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-06-19T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d1", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": 0.374873, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-22" }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 246.75, "predicted_response_pct": 0.676151, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-08", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -0.548147, 1.653802 ], "symbol": "LEQ6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 242.6, 254.025 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 248.65, "contract_role": "near", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-06-25T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d5", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": -0.273556, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-26" }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 246.75, "predicted_response_pct": 0.765928, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-08", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.683544, 2.951848 ], "symbol": "LEQ6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 240.2, 264.075 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 249.55, "contract_role": "near", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-07-16T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d20", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": -8.206687, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-07-20" }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 246.75, "predicted_response_pct": 1.131717, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-08", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -2.650467, 7.024054 ], "symbol": "LEQ6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 242.55, 269.175 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 251.75, "contract_role": "near", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-08-13T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d40", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "status": "OPEN_OR_NOT_YET_OBSERVABLE", "target_date": null }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 246.75, "predicted_response_pct": 2.027405, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-08", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.702378, 9.086627 ], "symbol": "LEQ6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 239.2, 243.675 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 241.825, "contract_role": "mid", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": 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"label": "D20", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d40", "label": "D40", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 } ], "by_horizon": [ { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d1", "label": "D1", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d5", "label": "D5", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d20", "label": "D20", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d40", "label": "D40", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 } ], "calibration": [], "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "directional_accuracy": null, "forward_resolved_count": 0, "forward_resolved_forecast_count": 0, "forward_test_status": "OPEN_BOOK_NO_FORWARD_RESOLUTIONS", "interval_coverage": null, "mae": null, "mae_skill_vs_baseline": null, "matured_data_pending_count": 0, "mean_bias": null, "open_forecast_count": 0, "performance_status": "UNPROVEN", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "profitability_claim": false, "resolved_forecast_count": 0, "rmse": null, "schema_version": "alpha.structural_forecast_scorecard.v1", "skill_vs_baseline": null, "status": "NO_RESOLVED_FORWARD_FORECASTS", "unique_resolved_release_revision_count": 0, "unique_resolved_report_release_count": 0, "validation_mode": "IMMUTABLE_GENUINELY_FORWARD_OOS" }, "frozen_forecasts": [], "futures_implications": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESES", "generated_at_ct": "2026-07-23T05:50:10.836910-05:00", "headline": { "confidence": "HIGH", "dominant_stage": "placements_vs_meat_availability", "horizon": "current through 18 months", "state": "TIGHTENING_LATER_WITH_MEAT_CUSHIONS_NOW", "text": "The later fed-cattle pipeline is tightening while heavier carcasses and trade flows cushion beef availability now.", "what_changed": "No semantic structural change since the prior frozen vintage." }, "history": { "changed_metric_ids": [], "previous_fingerprint": "aa4677afd29c25764ed9f6f8f7a0e7f8b73900202ee79fdf2c3b6658842e0997", "semantic_changed": true, "vintage_count": 26, "vintage_recorded": true }, "live_trade_status": "DISABLED", "max_points": 0, "mode": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "model_card": { "baseline": "Expanding historical mean inside V2 walk-forward diagnostics; zero-change baseline in the immutable forward registry.", "calibration_policy": "No calibrated claim until at least 36 independent genuinely forward report releases and at least 10 unique releases per claimed horizon; correlated role-by-horizon cells and same-report revisions do not count as independent releases. Current status remains NOT_CALIBRATED.", "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "data_sources": [ "USDA NASS COF as-released event rows", "Databento Live Cattle fixed-contract daily bars" ], "evaluation_metrics": [ "MAE", "baseline-relative MAE skill", "directional accuracy", "prediction correlation", "80% interval coverage" ], "fairness_scope": "Not applicable to people; monitor contract-month and market-regime coverage instead.", "feature_families": [ "USDA COF year-over-year release values", "activity-month seasonality" ], "features": [ "on_feed_yoy_delta_pp", "placements_yoy_delta_pp", "marketings_yoy_delta_pp", "activity_month_season_sin", "activity_month_season_cos" ], "governance": { "auto_promotion_path": false, "decision_effect": "NONE", "max_points": 0, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "horizon_definitions": { "d1": "1 actual later fixed-contract session(s)", "d20": "20 actual later fixed-contract session(s)", "d40": "40 actual later fixed-contract session(s)", "d5": "5 actual later fixed-contract session(s)" }, "horizons": [ "d1", "d5", "d20", "d40" ], "intended_uses": [ "research", "hypothesis tracking", "forward accountability", "contract-window comparison" ], "known_limitations": [ "No contemporaneous consensus-surprise feature", "Conditional report response is not all-factor intrinsic value", "Weekday target scheduling is conservative and is reconciled to actual fixed-contract sessions at resolution", "No demonstrated forward predictive edge yet", "No transaction costs, slippage, liquidity, or executable strategy economics" ], "leakage_controls": [ "As-released report values only", "Latest event excluded from training", "Training labels must complete before prediction", "Forward registry rejects horizons already mature at first issuance" ], "lifecycle_status": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "model_name": "Structural Futures V2 fixed-contract COF response", "model_type": "Expanding-window ridge regression with fixed-contract event responses", "model_version": "cof-fixed-contract-ridge-v2.1.0", "monitoring": { "baseline_relative_scorecard": true, "calibration_minimum_unique_report_releases": 36, "immutable_forecast_book": true, "open_outcomes_retained": true }, "owner": "Alpha Structural Radar research boundary", "prediction_population": "Highest-volume unexpired Live Cattle fixed contract and the next two listed expiries on the release date.", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "prohibited_uses": [ "WOW Command input", "official decision input", "live trading", "position sizing", "intrinsic fair-value claim" ], "promotion_criteria": [ "At least 36 independent genuinely forward report releases", "At least 10 unique report releases per claimed horizon", "Positive baseline-relative MAE skill with stable directional evidence", "Independent governance review; never automatic promotion" ], "promotion_gate_passed": false, "purpose": "Estimate a conditional fixed-contract price response after a Cattle on Feed release.", "reproducibility": "Each issuance freezes the implementation SHA-256, fitted ridge coefficients/normalization/penalty, exact training-row identity hash, event features, source hashes, and model-spec hash.", "schema_version": "alpha.model_card.structural_futures_v2.v1", "status": "RESEARCH_ONLY_UNVALIDATED", "target": "Nth actual later RTH last-trade close versus same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close before the after-close COF release; these are not official CME settlements.", "target_definition": "Nth actual later RTH last-trade close versus same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close before the after-close COF release; these are not official CME settlements.", "training": { "continuous_or_stitched_prices_used": false, "fixed_contract_only": true, "method": "Ridge regression fit only to fully labeled events available before each prediction timestamp.", "minimum_train_events": 24, "walk_forward_evaluation": true }, "training_cutoff": "Strictly before each prediction release; every included label must also have completed before that release.", "uncertainty": "Residual 10th/90th-percentile response interval where enough walk-forward residuals exist.", "validation_method": "Expanding-window point-in-time walk-forward", "validation_protocol": "Expanding-window, point-in-time walk-forward evaluation against an expanding-mean diagnostic baseline." }, "module": "ALPHA_STRUCTURAL_RADAR_V1", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "previous_vintage_record_hash": "8f1d6cd377c40494abe6994459f096e0f9974239457db8a91f35efa61f0eff50", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "revision_ledger": [ { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_on_feed_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_placements_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_marketings_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_other_disappearance_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_less_than_600_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_600_699_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_700_799_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_800_899_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_900_999_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_1000_lbs_and_greater", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_head_count_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-22" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-22" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "blended_live_cash", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-22" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "tuesday_cutout_average_change_pct", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-21" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-04-01" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "intended_heifer_replacements", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-01-01" } ], "schema_version": "1.0.0", "semantic_fingerprint": "eb5f064da75438e5b38a33beb8c31e5a7e4b701741f5513975be0d81a82a1915", "separation_contract": { "auto_promotion_path": false, "calls_decision_components": false, "official_decision_effect": "NONE", "radar_write_root": "/opt/alpha_structural_radar", "reads_decision_outputs": false, "source_root_read_only": "/opt/alpha_current", "wow_command_effect": "NONE", "write_allowlist": [ "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs/structural_radar_status.json", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs/structural_radar_history.json", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/data/structural_radar/vintages.jsonl", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/state/structural_radar.lock" ], "writes_decision_outputs": false }, "source_ledger": [ { "error": null, "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 34, "stale_days": 40, "state": "WATCH", "warn_days": 32 }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-06-18", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "e4ad13c5e974ad6cd12e020f6e8753a19ea94e9979e8cf624354bbd42c2d4a1e", "source_id": "USDA_NASS_COF", "source_module": "cattle_on_feed", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/cattle_on_feed_status.json", "upstream_status": "WATCH", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-05", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "2e035d50b7a8c7889de07c40ad5b2ddb451b5b85346d67972104792639c06535", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_TRADE", "source_module": "import_exports", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/import_exports_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "business_release_lag": 0, "calendar_age_days": 0, "expected_report_date": "2026-07-22", "holiday_calendar_note": "Weekday-aware; USDA holiday exceptions may produce WATCH until the next release.", "reason": "Latest expected weekday USDA CEI report is present.", "release_cutoff_ct": "15:45", "report_date": "2026-07-22", "state": "PASS", "status": "PASS", "weekend_aware": true }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-22 after 15:30 CT", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "05f251e0ce6e963a96280a99fc39715fb3a8296cc2b6c2589ab0d3001de3fd29", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_CEI", "source_module": "ALPHA_PACKER_ECONOMICS_V1", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/packer_economics_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-22", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "b37d313800c42f7b4a425447f61dce525f6e2a905012ae9364dd5212483097c7", "source_id": "USDA_APHIS", "source_module": "animal_health", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/animal_health_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "pass_max_days": 2, "state": "PASS", "watch_max_days": 5 }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-22 daily publication", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "a9e3b2a5d2a96d20660a16ed403ee9f819c236193b0614c3a49026c1561b1d07", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_CASH", "source_module": "cash_cattle", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/cash_cattle_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "expected_latest_tuesday": "2026-07-21", "last_refresh_time_ct": "2026-07-22T14:20:16.416347-05:00", "latest_report_date": "2026-07-21", "reason": "Canonical Tuesday afternoon LM_XB403 history is current and complete.", "state": "PASS", "status_error": null, "status_report_date": "2026-07-21", "status_source_fingerprint": "e6bdbe15f174d0f6951242a4ce2db7c4bdb48a31f51f50442c7464b635d9a8de", "status_source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/boxed_beef/boxed_beef_tuesday_history_status.json" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-21", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "121b8a77d62ff30b5f1afd71ffe2611cc9375d4ecb3ae97aa333016d12fc05cf", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_BOXED_TUESDAY", "source_module": "boxed_beef_tuesday_history", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/boxed_beef/boxed_beef_tuesday_history.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-22T21:30:04", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-17", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "ac57b36fee6fce018b308c489ee8d4884c5e3232c3c1bab3acf0eebd27da19f8", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT", "source_module": "weekly_kill_weights", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/weekly_kill_weights.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "cadence": "Quarterly USDA ERS feeder supply", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-04-01", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "32d71256ffb42497325ea439db5ed6a00752be99019c9ab73562950ad87f581b", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_FEEDER_SUPPLY", "source_module": "ers_feeder_supply", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/ers_livestock_domestic_data/livestock-data-machine-readable-files/FeederCattleSuppliesOutsideFeedlots.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "DERIVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "cadence": "Annual USDA ERS herd replacement", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-01-01", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "281e3d55e23156459116f1b342105d36eb78c6d3295597ee52f60c846528960d", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_HERD_REPLACEMENT", "source_module": "ers_heifer_replacements", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/ers_livestock_domestic_data/livestock-data-machine-readable-files/heifersenteringherd.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" } ], "status": "PASS", "structural_futures_v2": { "cohort_timing_bridge": { "assumptions": { "contract_mapping": "Each possible market-ready day maps to the nearest still-unexpired Feb/Apr/Jun/Aug/Oct/Dec Live Cattle contract midpoint. Expiry uses the last weekday as an approximation and does not encode exchange holidays.", "days_on_feed": { "1000_lbs_and_greater": [ 50, 110 ], "600_699_lbs": [ 170, 230 ], "700_799_lbs": [ 140, 200 ], "800_899_lbs": [ 110, 170 ], "900_999_lbs": [ 80, 140 ], "less_than_600_lbs": [ 190, 250 ] }, "exposure_weighting": "Placement day and days-on-feed are modeled as independent discrete uniform assumptions, then convolved. These are scenario weights, not empirical probabilities.", "interpretation": "Head-equivalent exposure is a timing bridge, not deliverable supply, open interest, fair value, or a price forecast.", "placement_date_uncertainty": "Earliest uses activity-month start; latest uses activity-month end." }, "buckets": [ { "bucket_id": "less_than_600_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 209836.1, "delta_head_equivalent": -9836.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 219672.1, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.655738 }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 110163.9, "delta_head_equivalent": -5163.9, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 115327.9, "symbol": "LEG7", "window_day_share": 0.344262 } ], "current_head": 320000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 250, "minimum": 190 }, "delta_head": -15000, "delta_pct": -4.478, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-11-07", "latest": "2027-02-05" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-11-25", "p50": "2026-12-22", "p90": "2027-01-18", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 335000 }, { "bucket_id": "600_699_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 11549.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -1684.3, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 13233.7, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.048123 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 211189.8, "delta_head_equivalent": -30798.5, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 241988.4, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.879958 }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 17260.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -2517.2, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 19777.9, "symbol": "LEG7", "window_day_share": 0.07192 } ], "current_head": 240000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 230, "minimum": 170 }, "delta_head": -35000, "delta_pct": -12.727, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-10-18", "latest": "2027-01-16" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-11-05", "p50": "2026-12-02", "p90": "2026-12-29", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 275000 }, { "bucket_id": "700_799_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 183606.6, "delta_head_equivalent": -22950.8, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 206557.4, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.459016 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 216393.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -27049.2, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 243442.6, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.540984 } ], "current_head": 400000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 200, "minimum": 140 }, "delta_head": -50000, 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"2025-06-20", "reconciliations": [ { "actual": 1704000.0, "check_id": "latest_bucket_sum_to_placements", "expected": 1704000.0, "passed": true, "residual_head": 0.0, "tolerance_head": 1000.0 }, { "actual": 1886000.0, "check_id": "prior_bucket_sum_to_placements", "expected": 1886000.0, "passed": true, "residual_head": 0.0, "tolerance_head": 1000.0 }, { "actual": -182000.0, "check_id": "contract_exposure_delta_to_bucket_delta", "expected": -182000.0, "passed": true, "residual_head": 0.0, "tolerance_head": 1.0 } ], "status": "PASS" }, "contract_response_models": { "continuous_or_stitched_prices_used": false, "contract_estimates": [ { "cohort_timing_exposure": { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 190245.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -10133.3, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 200378.6, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEQ6" }, "contract_id": "LE-2026-08", "horizons": [ { "conditional_fair_value": 248.425, 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"PASS" } ], "role": "near", "symbol": "LEQ6" }, { "cohort_timing_exposure": { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 706142.8, "delta_head_equivalent": -89816.5, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 795959.3, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEV6" }, "contract_id": "LE-2026-10", "horizons": [ { "conditional_fair_value": 241.825, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 239.2, 243.675 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d1", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": 0.531029, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-22" }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.721589, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -0.374333, 1.488104 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 242.075, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 236.45, 246.775 ], "estimate_status": 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"estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d40", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "predicted_response_pct": 2.053093, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.30899, 8.914597 ], "status": "PASS" } ], "role": "mid", "symbol": "LEV6" }, { "cohort_timing_exposure": { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 677569.5, "delta_head_equivalent": -74194.6, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 751764.1, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEZ6" }, "contract_id": "LE-2026-12", "horizons": [ { "conditional_fair_value": 240.8, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 238.65, 242.325 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d1", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": 0.585468, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-22" }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.697705, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -0.196348, 1.335889 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 241.175, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 235.65, 246.15 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d5", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": -0.230005, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-26" }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.857373, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.450258, 2.941915 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 241.675, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 234.8, 254.525 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d20", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": -6.743335, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-07-20" }, "predicted_response_pct": 1.06329, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.805714, 6.442563 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 243.8, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 232.9, 258.5 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d40", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "predicted_response_pct": 1.958683, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -2.607012, 8.100815 ], "status": "PASS" } ], "role": "deferred", "symbol": "LEZ6" } ], "contract_selection": "Highest-volume unexpired named fixed contract is near; the next two canonical year-month expiries are mid and deferred.", "curve_twist_model_active": false, "curve_twist_pricing_authority": "NONE", "fair_value_limitation": "Conditional report-response price is not an all-factor intrinsic fair value and cannot be promoted by this module.", "fixed_contract_only": true, "implementation_sha256": "122b355739d8f28522367bcb9b4097a897fa382cc2fbe049c89d448fb81c0d56", "known_limitations": [ "Historical price references are Databento RTH last-trade closes, not official CME settlements.", "Daily source rows do not retain the final bar timestamp; pre-release ordering relies on the scheduled 13:05 CT RTH close preceding the recorded 14:00 CT COF release.", "No licensed analyst-consensus surprise series is available; report features are printed YoY levels, not consensus surprises.", "Role, horizon, and regime heterogeneity remain research limitations; all operational gates stay closed." ], "latest_release_date": "2026-06-18", "model_version": "cof-fixed-contract-ridge-v2.1.0", "models": [ { 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Same-report roles, horizons, and revisions do not inflate the independent-release threshold. The sibling checkpoint is best-effort and no external WORM anchor exists; accountability is partial and predictive profitability is not graded.", "status": "PARTIAL", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "OPERATIONAL_ISOLATION", "earned": 15.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Base radar has no decision or WOW effect", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Registry writes only below the sibling radar root and the required runtime permission probe passes", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "No live-trade use, auto-promotion, or execution points", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Operational and WOW Command isolation", "status": "PASS", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "TRANSPARENCY", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Complete model card states purpose, target, data, leakage controls, limitations, and governance", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Scorecard names a frozen baseline and baseline-relative primary metric", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Model-card and baseline transparency", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 } ], "eligibility": { "operational_promotion_eligible": false, "predictive_profitability_grade_eligible": false, "status": "ELIGIBLE_SYSTEM_QUALITY_ONLY", "system_quality_grade_eligible": true }, "explicit_exclusions": [ "predictive profitability", "tradable edge", "live execution quality", "risk-adjusted returns" ], "max_points": 0, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "profitability_claim": false, "rubric_id": "ALPHA_SYSTEM_QUALITY_NON_PROFITABILITY_V1", "schema_version": "alpha.system_quality_audit.v1", "scope": "SYSTEM_DESIGN_DATA_INTEGRITY_GOVERNANCE_AND_ACCOUNTABILITY", "score": { "earned": 91.0, "grade": "A-", "maximum": 100.0, "normalized_10": 9.1 }, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "theses": [ { "active_alert_ids": [ "later_fed_pipeline_tightening", "weight_offsets_head_decline", "trade_cushions_domestic_availability", "processing_margin_pressure" ], "confirmation": "Later marketings and slaughter tighten after placement cohorts roll forward while meat cushions fade.", "contradictions": [ "cof_on_feed_head", "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs" ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "cof_placements_head", "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "beef_exports_ytd_cwe" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "current through 18 months", "invalidation": "Placements recover or meat availability remains ample enough to prevent the expected tightening.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "PRIMARY_WORKING_HYPOTHESIS", "state": "TIGHTENING_LATER_WITH_MEAT_CUSHIONS_NOW", "thesis_id": "later_head_tightness_near_meat_cushion", "title": "Later fed-cattle tightness, buffered near-term beef availability" }, { "confirmation": "Weights, imports, dairy-beef supply, or weak exports continue replacing domestic fed-cattle tonnage.", "contradictions": [ "cof_placements_head", "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots" ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "current through 12 months", "invalidation": "Weights normalize and trade cushions reverse before placements recover.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "COMPETING_HYPOTHESIS", "thesis_id": "meat_availability_outlasts_head_shortage", "title": "Beef availability stays adequate longer than cattle head counts imply" }, { "confirmation": "Verified capacity exits or sustained shift reductions tighten the hook-to-cattle balance.", "contradictions": [ "No verified plant closure is inferred from margin data alone." ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "cof_marketings_head", "weekly_fi_slaughter_head" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "3-24 months", "invalidation": "Margins recover and observed capacity remains stable.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "COMPETING_HYPOTHESIS", "thesis_id": "capacity_rationalization_changes_leverage", "title": "Processing-capacity rationalization changes packer and feedyard leverage" } ], "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "validation": { "all_units_typed": true, "decision_effect": "NONE", "failed_reconciliations": [], "futures_pricing_model_active": false, "maximum_execution_points": 0, "missing_core_metrics": [], "missing_inputs": [], "numeric_forecast_policy": "No forward numeric value is emitted until an independently validated model supplies it.", "point_in_time_only": true, "promotion_gate_passed": false, "semantic_vintage_chain_validation": "PASS_WITH_LEGACY_PREFIX", "semantic_vintage_checkpoint_prior_state": "PASS", "semantic_vintage_checkpoint_validation": "PASS", "semantic_vintage_external_anchor_present": false, "semantic_vintage_parse_strict": true, "semantic_vintages": true, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "vintage_record_hash": "b5b07a54ae9edd77e0cc04ebccf5522ab8ff0dd19596294823740de78f9268ef", "warnings": [] }, { "balance_sheet": { "as_of": "2026-07-23", "periods": [ { "period": "Current feedlot inventory", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current fed-cattle inventory.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 35, "stale_days": 40, "state": "WATCH", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Cattle on feed", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_on_feed_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "feedlot_inventory", "unit": "head", "value": 11682000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": 2.0 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Incoming placement pipeline", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Incoming fed-cattle pipeline.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 35, "stale_days": 40, "state": "WATCH", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Monthly placements", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_placements_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "incoming_pipeline", "unit": "head", "value": 1704000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -10.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 35, "stale_days": 40, "state": "WATCH", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements under 600 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_less_than_600_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 320000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 35, "stale_days": 40, "state": "WATCH", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 600-699 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_600_699_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 240000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 35, "stale_days": 40, "state": "WATCH", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 700-799 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_700_799_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 400000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 35, "stale_days": 40, "state": "WATCH", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 800-899 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_800_899_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 444000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 35, "stale_days": 40, "state": "WATCH", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 900-999 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_900_999_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 225000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 35, "stale_days": 40, "state": "WATCH", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 1,000+ lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_1000_lbs_and_greater", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 75000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "USDA ERS-derived feeder-cattle reservoir outside feedlots; lower inventory can constrain future placements.", "freshness": { "cadence": "Quarterly USDA ERS feeder supply", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Feeder cattle outside feedlots", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_FEEDER_SUPPLY" ], "stage": "feeder_supply", "unit": "thousand_head", "value": 18776.97, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-04-01", "yoy_pct": 2.2631 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Fed-cattle outflow and meat production", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Fed-cattle outflow toward slaughter.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 35, "stale_days": 40, "state": "WATCH", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Monthly marketings", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_marketings_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "fed_outflow", "unit": "head", "value": 1551000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -12.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Non-marketing feedlot disappearance.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 35, "stale_days": 40, "state": "WATCH", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Other disappearance", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_other_disappearance_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "fed_outflow", "unit": "head", "value": 55000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -11.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Observed weekly cattle head throughput.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-23T21:30:04", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Weekly federally inspected slaughter", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "slaughter", "unit": "head", "value": 525000.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "yoy_pct": -7.4074 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Pounds produced per slaughtered animal.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-23T21:30:04", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Average dressed weight", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "yield", "unit": "lb_per_head", "value": 887.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "yoy_pct": 2.662 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Observed weekly beef output combines head throughput and carcass yield.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-23T21:30:04", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Weekly beef production", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "meat_output", "unit": "million_lb", "value": 464.5, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "yoy_pct": -5.0491 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Counterfactual pounds effect holding year-ago dressed weight constant.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-23T21:30:04", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Head-count contribution to weekly production change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_head_count_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "production_bridge", "unit": "million_lb", "value": -36.288, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Incremental pounds attributable to the dressed-weight change at current slaughter.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-23T21:30:04", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Dressed-weight contribution to weekly production change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "production_bridge", "unit": "million_lb", "value": 12.075, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "yoy_pct": null } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Trade and domestic availability", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Imported beef adds to domestic carcass-weight-equivalent availability.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date beef imports", "metadata": { "ytd_comparable": true, "ytd_through_month": 5 }, "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 2754566570.58, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": 9.9 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Exported beef removes product from domestic availability while reflecting foreign demand.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date beef exports", "metadata": { "ytd_comparable": true, "ytd_through_month": 5 }, "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 978518541.27, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": -17.2 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Imports less exports; this is a product-availability measure, not a fed-cattle-equivalent count.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date net beef imports", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 1776048029.31, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": -2.3381, "economic_read": "Weekly wholesale movement; descriptive context only because its futures validation gate has not passed.", "freshness": { "expected_latest_tuesday": "2026-07-21", "last_refresh_time_ct": "2026-07-22T14:20:16.416347-05:00", "latest_report_date": "2026-07-21", "reason": "Canonical Tuesday afternoon LM_XB403 history is current and complete.", "state": "PASS", "status_error": null, "status_report_date": "2026-07-21", "status_source_fingerprint": "e6bdbe15f174d0f6951242a4ce2db7c4bdb48a31f51f50442c7464b635d9a8de", "status_source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/boxed_beef/boxed_beef_tuesday_history_status.json" }, "label": "Tuesday Choice/Select average weekly change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "tuesday_cutout_average_change_pct", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_BOXED_TUESDAY" ], "stage": "wholesale_demand", "unit": "percent", "value": -2.3381, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-21", "yoy_pct": null } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Capacity, cash, herd, and policy context", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Standardized box-minus-live operating-spread proxy; not company net income and not a futures timing signal.", "freshness": { "business_release_lag": 0, "calendar_age_days": 0, "expected_report_date": "2026-07-23", "holiday_calendar_note": "Weekday-aware; USDA holiday exceptions may produce WATCH until the next release.", "reason": "Latest expected weekday USDA CEI report is present.", "release_cutoff_ct": "15:45", "report_date": "2026-07-23", "state": "PASS", "status": "PASS", "weekend_aware": true }, "label": "USDA CEI gross packer spread", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_CEI" ], "stage": "processing_economics", "unit": "usd_per_cwt_carcass", "value": 2.8309, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-23", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current operating status constrains or restores feeder-cattle inflow; duration and price impact are not assumed.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Southern livestock port status", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "source_ids": [ "USDA_APHIS" ], "stage": "biological_policy", "unit": "status", "value": "CLOSED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-23", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current cash transmission and feedyard/packer leverage context.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "pass_max_days": 2, "state": "PASS", "watch_max_days": 5 }, "label": "Blended live cash cattle", "metadata": { "change_vs_last_week_usd_per_cwt": -9.11 }, "metric_id": "blended_live_cash", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_CASH" ], "stage": "cash_transmission", "unit": "usd_per_cwt_live", "value": 230.14, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-23", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Replacement intentions inform herd rebuilding capacity; they do not guarantee retained females or calf-crop growth.", "freshness": { "cadence": "Annual USDA ERS herd replacement", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Intended heifer replacements", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "intended_heifer_replacements", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_HERD_REPLACEMENT" ], "stage": "breeding_herd", "unit": "thousand_head", "value": 8618.8, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-01-01", "yoy_pct": 0.361 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" } ], "reconciliations": [ { "actual": 1704000.0, "check_id": "cof_placement_buckets", "expected": 1704000.0, "name": "Placement weight buckets sum to placements", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 1000.0, "unit": "head" }, { "actual": 11682000.0, "check_id": "cof_head_flow", "expected": 11682000.0, "name": "Opening inventory plus placements less outflows equals closing inventory", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 1000.0, "unit": "head" }, { "actual": 464.5, "check_id": "weekly_production_bridge", "expected": 464.98699999999997, "name": "Year-ago production plus head effect plus weight effect reconciles to current production", "passed": true, "residual": -0.487, "tolerance": 2.3225000000000002, "unit": "million_lb" }, { "actual": 1776048029.31, "check_id": "net_trade_identity", "expected": 1776048029.31, "name": "Imports less exports equals net imports", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 0.01, "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent" } ], "status": "RECONCILED", "summary": { "beef_supply_change_pct": -5.0491, "dressed_weight_yoy_pct": 2.662, "exports_ytd_change_pct": -17.2, "imports_ytd_change_pct": 9.9, "observation_count": 24, "reconciliation_count": 4, "reconciliation_pass_count": 4, "slaughter_yoy_pct": -7.4074, "source_count": 9, "source_ledger_row_count": 9, "status": "RECONCILED", "weight_offset_of_head_decline_pct": 33.28 }, "unit_policy": "No cattle-head-to-beef-pound conversion is made without an exposed observed weight or typed derivation." }, "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "change_alerts": [ { "alert_id": "later_fed_pipeline_tightening", "counter_evidence": "Current cattle on feed are +2.0% YoY.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "TIGHTENING_LATER", "horizon": "3-18 months", "invalidation": "Placements and feeder availability normalize, or the livestock-border constraint is formally removed.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "WATCH", "summary": "The later fed-cattle pipeline is tightening, but this is not a futures signal.", "triggers": [ { "label": "Placements -10.0% YoY", "metric_id": "cof_placements_head" }, { "label": "Southern livestock ports closed", "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports" } ] }, { "alert_id": "weight_offsets_head_decline", "counter_evidence": "Reported weekly beef production remains -5.0% YoY.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "MEAT_CUSHION", "horizon": "current to 3 months", "invalidation": "Dressed weights stop offsetting lower head throughput.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "ACTIVE", "summary": "Heavier carcasses are replacing part of the beef tonnage lost to lower slaughter.", "triggers": [ { "label": "Slaughter -7.4% YoY", "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head" }, { "label": "Dressed weight +2.7% YoY", "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs" } ] }, { "alert_id": "trade_cushions_domestic_availability", "counter_evidence": "Product mix and imported lean are not fully interchangeable with Choice fed-beef cuts.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "DOMESTIC_AVAILABILITY_CUSHION", "horizon": "current to 6 months", "invalidation": "Imports reverse lower and exports recover enough to remove the net availability cushion.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "ACTIVE", "summary": "Trade flows are cushioning domestic beef availability despite tighter cattle head counts.", "triggers": [ { "label": "YTD imports +9.9%", "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe" }, { "label": "YTD exports -17.2%", "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe" } ] } ], "composer_contract": { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "composer_version": "alpha.structural_radar.composer.v2.0.0", "decision_effect": "NONE", "max_points": 0, "mode": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, 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"NON_MUTATING_OS_ACCESS_EFFECTIVE_IDS", "radar_outputs_path": "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs", "required": true, "results": { "decision_output_writable": false, "radar_outputs_writable": true, "source_root_writable": false }, "source_root": "/opt/alpha_current", "status": "PASS" }, "source_root_read_only": "/opt/alpha_current", "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "wow_command_effect": "NONE", "write_allowlist": [ "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/data/structural_forecast_registry/records.jsonl", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs/structural_forecast_registry_status.json", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/state/structural_forecast_registry.lock" ], "writes_only_below_radar_root": true }, "schema_version": "alpha.structural_forecast_registry.v1", "scorecard": { "baseline": { "baseline_id": "ZERO_CHANGE_FIXED_CONTRACT_V1", "definition": "Zero report-response return from the pre-report fixed-contract close.", "frozen_at_issuance": true }, "by_contract_role": {}, "by_horizon": { "d1": { "baseline_mae_response_pct": null, "interval_80_coverage": null, "mae_skill_vs_zero_change_baseline": null, "model_directional_accuracy": null, "model_mae_response_pct": null, "model_mean_error_response_pct": null, "model_rmse_response_pct": null, "n_resolved": 0, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "unique_release_revision_count": 0, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, "d20": { "baseline_mae_response_pct": null, "interval_80_coverage": null, "mae_skill_vs_zero_change_baseline": null, "model_directional_accuracy": null, "model_mae_response_pct": null, "model_mean_error_response_pct": null, "model_rmse_response_pct": null, "n_resolved": 0, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "unique_release_revision_count": 0, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, "d40": { "baseline_mae_response_pct": null, "interval_80_coverage": null, "mae_skill_vs_zero_change_baseline": null, "model_directional_accuracy": null, "model_mae_response_pct": null, "model_mean_error_response_pct": null, "model_rmse_response_pct": null, "n_resolved": 0, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "unique_release_revision_count": 0, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, "d5": { "baseline_mae_response_pct": null, "interval_80_coverage": null, "mae_skill_vs_zero_change_baseline": null, "model_directional_accuracy": null, "model_mae_response_pct": null, "model_mean_error_response_pct": null, "model_rmse_response_pct": null, "n_resolved": 0, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "unique_release_revision_count": 0, "unique_report_release_count": 0 } }, "evaluation_population": "Only forecasts frozen while their target was genuinely open and later resolved from the same fixed contract.", "metric_policy": { "open_forecasts_scored": false, "primary": "MAE response percentage points relative to baseline MAE", "secondary": [ "RMSE", "mean error", "directional accuracy", "80% interval coverage" ] }, "overall": { "baseline_mae_response_pct": null, "interval_80_coverage": null, 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"label": "D20", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d40", "label": "D40", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 } ], "by_horizon": [ { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d1", "label": "D1", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d5", "label": "D5", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d20", "label": "D20", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d40", "label": "D40", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 } ], "calibration": [], "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "directional_accuracy": null, "forward_resolved_count": 0, "forward_resolved_forecast_count": 0, "forward_test_status": "OPEN_BOOK_NO_FORWARD_RESOLUTIONS", "interval_coverage": null, "mae": null, "mae_skill_vs_baseline": null, "matured_data_pending_count": 0, "mean_bias": null, "open_forecast_count": 0, "performance_status": "UNPROVEN", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "profitability_claim": false, "resolved_forecast_count": 0, "rmse": null, "schema_version": "alpha.structural_forecast_scorecard.v1", "skill_vs_baseline": null, "status": "NO_RESOLVED_FORWARD_FORECASTS", "unique_resolved_release_revision_count": 0, "unique_resolved_report_release_count": 0, "validation_mode": "IMMUTABLE_GENUINELY_FORWARD_OOS" }, "frozen_forecasts": [], "futures_implications": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESES", "generated_at_ct": "2026-07-23T16:50:47.861914-05:00", "headline": { "confidence": "HIGH", "dominant_stage": "placements_vs_meat_availability", "horizon": "current through 18 months", "state": "TIGHTENING_LATER_WITH_MEAT_CUSHIONS_NOW", "text": "The later fed-cattle pipeline is tightening while heavier carcasses and trade flows cushion beef availability now.", "what_changed": "Changed observations: packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass, southern_livestock_ports, blended_live_cash." }, "history": { "changed_metric_ids": [ "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "southern_livestock_ports", "blended_live_cash" ], "previous_fingerprint": "eb5f064da75438e5b38a33beb8c31e5a7e4b701741f5513975be0d81a82a1915", "semantic_changed": true, "vintage_count": 27, "vintage_recorded": true }, "live_trade_status": "DISABLED", "max_points": 0, "mode": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "model_card": { "baseline": "Expanding historical mean inside V2 walk-forward diagnostics; zero-change baseline in the immutable forward registry.", "calibration_policy": "No calibrated claim until at least 36 independent genuinely forward report releases and at least 10 unique releases per claimed 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"Expanding-window ridge regression with fixed-contract event responses", "model_version": "cof-fixed-contract-ridge-v2.1.0", "monitoring": { "baseline_relative_scorecard": true, "calibration_minimum_unique_report_releases": 36, "immutable_forecast_book": true, "open_outcomes_retained": true }, "owner": "Alpha Structural Radar research boundary", "prediction_population": "Highest-volume unexpired Live Cattle fixed contract and the next two listed expiries on the release date.", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "prohibited_uses": [ "WOW Command input", "official decision input", "live trading", "position sizing", "intrinsic fair-value claim" ], "promotion_criteria": [ "At least 36 independent genuinely forward report releases", "At least 10 unique report releases per claimed horizon", "Positive baseline-relative MAE skill with stable directional evidence", "Independent governance review; never automatic promotion" ], "promotion_gate_passed": false, "purpose": "Estimate a conditional fixed-contract price response after a Cattle on Feed release.", "reproducibility": "Each issuance freezes the implementation SHA-256, fitted ridge coefficients/normalization/penalty, exact training-row identity hash, event features, source hashes, and model-spec hash.", "schema_version": "alpha.model_card.structural_futures_v2.v1", "status": "RESEARCH_ONLY_UNVALIDATED", "target": "Nth actual later RTH last-trade close versus same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close before the after-close COF release; these are not official CME settlements.", "target_definition": "Nth actual later RTH last-trade close versus same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close before the after-close COF release; these are not official CME settlements.", "training": { "continuous_or_stitched_prices_used": false, "fixed_contract_only": true, "method": "Ridge regression fit only to fully labeled events available before each prediction timestamp.", "minimum_train_events": 24, "walk_forward_evaluation": true }, "training_cutoff": "Strictly before each prediction release; every included label must also have completed before that release.", "uncertainty": "Residual 10th/90th-percentile response interval where enough walk-forward residuals exist.", "validation_method": "Expanding-window point-in-time walk-forward", "validation_protocol": "Expanding-window, point-in-time walk-forward evaluation against an expanding-mean diagnostic baseline." }, "module": "ALPHA_STRUCTURAL_RADAR_V1", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "previous_vintage_record_hash": "b5b07a54ae9edd77e0cc04ebccf5522ab8ff0dd19596294823740de78f9268ef", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "revision_ledger": [ { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_on_feed_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_placements_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_marketings_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_other_disappearance_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_less_than_600_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_600_699_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_700_799_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_800_899_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_900_999_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_1000_lbs_and_greater", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_head_count_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Period advanced from 2026-07-22 to 2026-07-23.", "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "vintage_date": "2026-07-23" }, { "detail": "Period advanced from 2026-07-22 to 2026-07-23.", "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "vintage_date": "2026-07-23" }, { "detail": "Period advanced from 2026-07-22 to 2026-07-23.", "metric_id": "blended_live_cash", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "vintage_date": "2026-07-23" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "tuesday_cutout_average_change_pct", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-21" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-04-01" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "intended_heifer_replacements", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-01-01" } ], "schema_version": "1.0.0", "semantic_fingerprint": "e6228672af215dc2c9792b51d301cae8e57d47a36a116f71b5f77d5b0529211d", "separation_contract": { "auto_promotion_path": false, "calls_decision_components": false, "official_decision_effect": "NONE", "radar_write_root": "/opt/alpha_structural_radar", "reads_decision_outputs": false, "source_root_read_only": "/opt/alpha_current", "wow_command_effect": "NONE", "write_allowlist": [ "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs/structural_radar_status.json", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs/structural_radar_history.json", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/data/structural_radar/vintages.jsonl", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/state/structural_radar.lock" ], "writes_decision_outputs": false }, "source_ledger": [ { "error": null, "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 35, "stale_days": 40, "state": "WATCH", "warn_days": 32 }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-06-18", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "6b7492eb69948a768b8bcd9cd5dceedc4cc360f01a678931dca85c6fbce93ad7", "source_id": "USDA_NASS_COF", "source_module": "cattle_on_feed", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/cattle_on_feed_status.json", "upstream_status": "WATCH", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-05", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "9ecb9c6cdde240b9a565063424b7ee5aba943460a63f2a7c07ef01d7541534e6", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_TRADE", "source_module": "import_exports", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/import_exports_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "business_release_lag": 0, "calendar_age_days": 0, "expected_report_date": "2026-07-23", "holiday_calendar_note": "Weekday-aware; USDA holiday exceptions may produce WATCH until the next release.", "reason": "Latest expected weekday USDA CEI report is present.", "release_cutoff_ct": "15:45", "report_date": "2026-07-23", "state": "PASS", "status": "PASS", "weekend_aware": true }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-23 after 15:30 CT", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "68836bf653256bfd9922314e8697b6c5bc48c9502e8a6f25e14eb5dc5c02ee65", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_CEI", "source_module": "ALPHA_PACKER_ECONOMICS_V1", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/packer_economics_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-23", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "150a0ba9ef08671171168dfd5ceb38d1f4bf96426022c93a7f120714048bb40d", "source_id": "USDA_APHIS", "source_module": "animal_health", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/animal_health_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "pass_max_days": 2, "state": "PASS", "watch_max_days": 5 }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-23 daily publication", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "72be4f64de91240a1eac01c95bd354a024dd36ee30f719df9e9fc8d7ff9fd2ee", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_CASH", "source_module": "cash_cattle", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/cash_cattle_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "expected_latest_tuesday": "2026-07-21", "last_refresh_time_ct": "2026-07-22T14:20:16.416347-05:00", "latest_report_date": "2026-07-21", "reason": "Canonical Tuesday afternoon LM_XB403 history is current and complete.", "state": "PASS", "status_error": null, "status_report_date": "2026-07-21", "status_source_fingerprint": "e6bdbe15f174d0f6951242a4ce2db7c4bdb48a31f51f50442c7464b635d9a8de", "status_source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/boxed_beef/boxed_beef_tuesday_history_status.json" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-21", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "121b8a77d62ff30b5f1afd71ffe2611cc9375d4ecb3ae97aa333016d12fc05cf", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_BOXED_TUESDAY", "source_module": "boxed_beef_tuesday_history", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/boxed_beef/boxed_beef_tuesday_history.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-23T21:30:04", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-17", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "f468b1d80548609d84f35882f2e67229182829f725f7f2625c688f9afd217d04", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT", "source_module": "weekly_kill_weights", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/weekly_kill_weights.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "cadence": "Quarterly USDA ERS feeder supply", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-04-01", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "32d71256ffb42497325ea439db5ed6a00752be99019c9ab73562950ad87f581b", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_FEEDER_SUPPLY", "source_module": "ers_feeder_supply", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/ers_livestock_domestic_data/livestock-data-machine-readable-files/FeederCattleSuppliesOutsideFeedlots.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "DERIVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "cadence": "Annual USDA ERS herd replacement", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-01-01", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "281e3d55e23156459116f1b342105d36eb78c6d3295597ee52f60c846528960d", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_HERD_REPLACEMENT", "source_module": "ers_heifer_replacements", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/ers_livestock_domestic_data/livestock-data-machine-readable-files/heifersenteringherd.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" } ], "status": "PASS", "structural_futures_v2": { "cohort_timing_bridge": { "assumptions": { "contract_mapping": "Each possible market-ready day maps to the nearest still-unexpired Feb/Apr/Jun/Aug/Oct/Dec Live Cattle contract midpoint. Expiry uses the last weekday as an approximation and does not encode exchange holidays.", "days_on_feed": { "1000_lbs_and_greater": [ 50, 110 ], "600_699_lbs": [ 170, 230 ], "700_799_lbs": [ 140, 200 ], "800_899_lbs": [ 110, 170 ], "900_999_lbs": [ 80, 140 ], "less_than_600_lbs": [ 190, 250 ] }, "exposure_weighting": "Placement day and days-on-feed are modeled as independent discrete uniform assumptions, then convolved. These are scenario weights, not empirical probabilities.", "interpretation": "Head-equivalent exposure is a timing bridge, not deliverable supply, open interest, fair value, or a price forecast.", "placement_date_uncertainty": "Earliest uses activity-month start; latest uses activity-month end." }, "buckets": [ { "bucket_id": "less_than_600_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 209836.1, "delta_head_equivalent": -9836.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 219672.1, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.655738 }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 110163.9, "delta_head_equivalent": -5163.9, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 115327.9, "symbol": "LEG7", "window_day_share": 0.344262 } ], "current_head": 320000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 250, "minimum": 190 }, "delta_head": -15000, "delta_pct": -4.478, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-11-07", "latest": "2027-02-05" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-11-25", "p50": "2026-12-22", "p90": "2027-01-18", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 335000 }, { "bucket_id": "600_699_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 11549.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -1684.3, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 13233.7, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.048123 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 211189.8, "delta_head_equivalent": -30798.5, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 241988.4, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.879958 }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 17260.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -2517.2, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 19777.9, "symbol": "LEG7", "window_day_share": 0.07192 } ], "current_head": 240000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 230, "minimum": 170 }, "delta_head": -35000, "delta_pct": -12.727, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-10-18", "latest": "2027-01-16" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-11-05", "p50": "2026-12-02", "p90": "2026-12-29", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 275000 }, { "bucket_id": "700_799_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 183606.6, "delta_head_equivalent": -22950.8, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 206557.4, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.459016 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 216393.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -27049.2, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 243442.6, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.540984 } ], "current_head": 400000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 200, "minimum": 140 }, "delta_head": -50000, "delta_pct": -11.111, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-09-18", "latest": "2026-12-17" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-10-06", "p50": "2026-11-02", "p90": "2026-11-29", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 450000 }, { "bucket_id": "800_899_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 21366.5, "delta_head_equivalent": -3464.8, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 24831.3, "symbol": "LEQ6", "window_day_share": 0.048123 }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 382483.3, "delta_head_equivalent": -62024.3, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 444507.7, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.861449 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 40150.2, "delta_head_equivalent": -6510.8, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 46661.0, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.090428 } ], "current_head": 444000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 170, "minimum": 110 }, "delta_head": -72000, "delta_pct": -13.953, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-08-19", "latest": "2026-11-17" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-09-06", "p50": "2026-10-03", "p90": "2026-10-30", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 516000 }, { "bucket_id": "900_999_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 103278.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -2295.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 105573.8, "symbol": "LEQ6", "window_day_share": 0.459016 }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 121721.3, "delta_head_equivalent": -2704.9, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 124426.2, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.540984 } ], "current_head": 225000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 140, "minimum": 80 }, "delta_head": -5000, "delta_pct": -2.174, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-07-20", "latest": "2026-10-18" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-08-07", "p50": "2026-09-03", "p90": "2026-09-30", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 230000 }, { "bucket_id": "1000_lbs_and_greater", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-06", "current_head_equivalent": 2617.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -174.5, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 2792.2, "symbol": "LEM6", "window_day_share": 0.034902 }, { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 65600.2, "delta_head_equivalent": -4373.3, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 69973.6, "symbol": "LEQ6", "window_day_share": 0.874669 }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 6782.1, "delta_head_equivalent": -452.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 7234.3, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.090428 } ], "current_head": 75000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 110, "minimum": 50 }, "delta_head": -5000, "delta_pct": -6.25, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-06-20", "latest": "2026-09-18" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-07-08", "p50": "2026-08-04", "p90": "2026-08-31", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 80000 } ], "comparison": "SAME_ACTIVITY_MONTH_AS_RELEASED_YEAR_OVER_YEAR", "contracts": [ { "contract_month": "2026-06", "current_head_equivalent": 2617.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -174.5, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 2792.2, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEM6" }, { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 190245.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -10133.3, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 200378.6, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEQ6" }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 706142.8, "delta_head_equivalent": -89816.5, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 795959.3, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEV6" }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 677569.5, "delta_head_equivalent": -74194.6, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 751764.1, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEZ6" }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 127424.6, "delta_head_equivalent": -7681.1, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 135105.8, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEG7" } ], "latest_activity_month": "2026-05-01", "latest_release_date": "2026-06-18", "prior_year_activity_month": "2025-05-01", "prior_year_release_date": "2025-06-20", "reconciliations": [ { "actual": 1704000.0, "check_id": "latest_bucket_sum_to_placements", "expected": 1704000.0, "passed": true, "residual_head": 0.0, "tolerance_head": 1000.0 }, { "actual": 1886000.0, "check_id": "prior_bucket_sum_to_placements", "expected": 1886000.0, "passed": true, "residual_head": 0.0, "tolerance_head": 1000.0 }, { "actual": -182000.0, "check_id": "contract_exposure_delta_to_bucket_delta", "expected": -182000.0, "passed": true, "residual_head": 0.0, "tolerance_head": 1.0 } ], "status": "PASS" }, "contract_response_models": { "continuous_or_stitched_prices_used": false, "contract_estimates": [ { "cohort_timing_exposure": { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 190245.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -10133.3, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 200378.6, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEQ6" }, "contract_id": "LE-2026-08", "horizons": [ { "conditional_fair_value": 248.425, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 245.4, 250.825 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d1", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": 0.374873, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-22" }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.676151, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -0.548147, 1.653802 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 248.65, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 242.6, 254.025 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d5", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": -0.273556, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-26" }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.765928, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.683544, 2.951848 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 249.55, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 240.2, 264.075 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d20", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": -8.206687, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-07-20" }, "predicted_response_pct": 1.131717, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -2.650467, 7.024054 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 251.75, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 242.55, 269.175 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d40", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "predicted_response_pct": 2.027405, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.702378, 9.086627 ], "status": "PASS" } ], "role": "near", "symbol": "LEQ6" }, { "cohort_timing_exposure": { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 706142.8, "delta_head_equivalent": -89816.5, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 795959.3, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEV6" }, "contract_id": "LE-2026-10", "horizons": [ { "conditional_fair_value": 241.825, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 239.2, 243.675 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d1", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": 0.531029, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-22" }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.721589, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -0.374333, 1.488104 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 242.075, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 236.45, 246.775 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d5", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": -0.322782, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-26" }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.81965, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.519832, 2.784357 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 242.9, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 233.525, 255.925 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d20", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": -6.997085, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-07-20" }, "predicted_response_pct": 1.16672, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -2.742707, 6.594272 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 245.025, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 236.95, 261.5 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d40", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "predicted_response_pct": 2.053093, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.30899, 8.914597 ], "status": "PASS" } ], "role": "mid", "symbol": "LEV6" }, { "cohort_timing_exposure": { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 677569.5, "delta_head_equivalent": -74194.6, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 751764.1, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEZ6" }, "contract_id": "LE-2026-12", "horizons": [ { "conditional_fair_value": 240.8, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 238.65, 242.325 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d1", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": 0.585468, 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Later-date corrections are excluded from the report-response panel so they cannot be paired with an already-observed original-report return path; displaced originals are not guaranteed recoverable for every historical USDA correction.", "historical_original_corrections_complete": false, "latest_event_excluded_from_training": true, "model_gate_is_not_operational_gate": true, "numeric_forecast_policy": "No estimate is emitted with insufficient prior history; no model estimate affects WOW or decisions.", "point_in_time_release_timestamps": true, "price_reference_is_official_settlement": false, "price_reference_timestamp_retained": false, "price_rows_filtered_to_as_of_cutoff": true, "price_rows_unique_by_date_contract": true }, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "system_quality_audit": { "accountability_status": "PARTIAL", "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "critical_gates": { "decision_isolation_gate": true, "immutable_registry_gate": true, "no_operational_promotion_gate": true, "no_predictive_skill_claim_gate": true, "overall_health_gate": true, "point_in_time_gate": true, "reconciliation_gate": true, "runtime_permission_probe_gate": true, "source_alignment_and_price_freshness_gate": true, "wow_isolation_gate": true }, "critical_gates_passed": true, "decision_effect": "NONE", "dimensions": [ { "dimension_id": "SOURCE_PROVENANCE", "earned": 15.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "At least eight unique structural sources have explicit non-stale freshness, observed-at values, and fingerprints", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Every base ledger row is identified, fingerprinted, and read-only", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Both required V2 sources are nonempty, read-only, and SHA-256 fingerprinted", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Base COF and V2 latest releases align, and the fixed-contract panel is current", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Base structural vintages parse strictly, checkpoint tail loss, and chain new semantic records", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 } ], "label": "Source provenance and semantic integrity", "status": "PASS", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "POINT_IN_TIME", "earned": 12.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Events and prices are filtered to the as-of cutoff", "max_points": 4.0, "passed": true, "points": 4.0 }, { "criterion": "Training labels complete before prediction and latest event is excluded", "max_points": 4.0, "passed": true, "points": 4.0 }, { "criterion": "As-released event timestamps are retained", "max_points": 4.0, "passed": true, "points": 4.0 }, { "criterion": "Daily price reference retains a final-bar timestamp", "max_points": 1.5, "passed": false, "points": 0 }, { "criterion": "Historical original/correction pairs are complete", "max_points": 1.5, "passed": false, "points": 0 } ], "label": "Point-in-time and leakage controls", "limitation": "Capped at 12/15: the daily panel lacks a retained final-bar timestamp and historical original/correction completeness is not guaranteed.", "status": "PARTIAL", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "RECONCILIATION", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "All base observations are typed and reconciliations recompute within explicit units/tolerances", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Placement cohort-to-contract reconciliations recompute within head tolerances", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Accounting and reconciliation", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 }, { "dimension_id": "CONTRACT_HORIZONS", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Fixed contracts are used without continuous stitching", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "A unique, fully estimated near/mid/deferred D1/D5/D20/D40 fixed-contract grid is present", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Contract and horizon specificity", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 }, { "dimension_id": "MODEL_GOVERNANCE", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Operational promotion is false", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 }, { "criterion": "Predictive edge remains explicitly unproven", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 }, { "criterion": "Calibration remains explicitly incomplete", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 }, { "criterion": "Pricing authority and execution points are zero", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 } ], "label": "Model governance without promotion leakage", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 }, { "dimension_id": "FORWARD_ACCOUNTABILITY", "earned": 9.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Append-only registry freeze hashes validate", "max_points": 2.0, "passed": true, "points": 2.0 }, { "criterion": "Prior sibling checkpoint detects single-file tail loss", "max_points": 1.0, "passed": true, "points": 1.0 }, { "criterion": "An external protected/WORM ledger anchor exists", "max_points": 1.0, "passed": false, "points": 0 }, { "criterion": "Forecast IDs are deterministic and issuance is deduplicated", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Open and matured-unresolved outcomes remain explicit and unscored", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "At least 36 independent forward report releases and 10 unique releases per claimed horizon are resolved", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": false, "points": 0 } ], "label": "Immutable forward forecast accountability", "limitation": "0 correlated forecast cells across 0 independent report releases are resolved. Same-report roles, horizons, and revisions do not inflate the independent-release threshold. The sibling checkpoint is best-effort and no external WORM anchor exists; accountability is partial and predictive profitability is not graded.", "status": "PARTIAL", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "OPERATIONAL_ISOLATION", "earned": 15.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Base radar has no decision or WOW effect", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Registry writes only below the sibling radar root and the required runtime permission probe passes", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "No live-trade use, auto-promotion, or execution points", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Operational and WOW Command isolation", "status": "PASS", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "TRANSPARENCY", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Complete model card states purpose, target, data, leakage controls, limitations, and governance", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Scorecard names a frozen baseline and baseline-relative primary metric", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Model-card and baseline transparency", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 } ], "eligibility": { "operational_promotion_eligible": false, "predictive_profitability_grade_eligible": false, "status": "ELIGIBLE_SYSTEM_QUALITY_ONLY", "system_quality_grade_eligible": true }, "explicit_exclusions": [ "predictive profitability", "tradable edge", "live execution quality", "risk-adjusted returns" ], "max_points": 0, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "profitability_claim": false, "rubric_id": "ALPHA_SYSTEM_QUALITY_NON_PROFITABILITY_V1", "schema_version": "alpha.system_quality_audit.v1", "scope": "SYSTEM_DESIGN_DATA_INTEGRITY_GOVERNANCE_AND_ACCOUNTABILITY", "score": { "earned": 91.0, "grade": "A-", "maximum": 100.0, "normalized_10": 9.1 }, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "theses": [ { "active_alert_ids": [ "later_fed_pipeline_tightening", "weight_offsets_head_decline", "trade_cushions_domestic_availability" ], "confirmation": "Later marketings and slaughter tighten after placement cohorts roll forward while meat cushions fade.", "contradictions": [ "cof_on_feed_head", "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs" ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "cof_placements_head", "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "beef_exports_ytd_cwe" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "current through 18 months", "invalidation": "Placements recover or meat availability remains ample enough to prevent the expected tightening.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "PRIMARY_WORKING_HYPOTHESIS", "state": "TIGHTENING_LATER_WITH_MEAT_CUSHIONS_NOW", "thesis_id": "later_head_tightness_near_meat_cushion", "title": "Later fed-cattle tightness, buffered near-term beef availability" }, { "confirmation": "Weights, imports, dairy-beef supply, or weak exports continue replacing domestic fed-cattle tonnage.", "contradictions": [ "cof_placements_head", "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots" ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "current through 12 months", "invalidation": "Weights normalize and trade cushions reverse before placements recover.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "COMPETING_HYPOTHESIS", "thesis_id": "meat_availability_outlasts_head_shortage", "title": "Beef availability stays adequate longer than cattle head counts imply" }, { "confirmation": "Verified capacity exits or sustained shift reductions tighten the hook-to-cattle balance.", "contradictions": [ "No verified plant closure is inferred from margin data alone." ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "cof_marketings_head", "weekly_fi_slaughter_head" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "3-24 months", "invalidation": "Margins recover and observed capacity remains stable.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "COMPETING_HYPOTHESIS", "thesis_id": "capacity_rationalization_changes_leverage", "title": "Processing-capacity rationalization changes packer and feedyard leverage" } ], "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "validation": { "all_units_typed": true, "decision_effect": "NONE", "failed_reconciliations": [], "futures_pricing_model_active": false, "maximum_execution_points": 0, "missing_core_metrics": [], "missing_inputs": [], "numeric_forecast_policy": "No forward numeric value is emitted until an independently validated model supplies it.", "point_in_time_only": true, "promotion_gate_passed": false, "semantic_vintage_chain_validation": "PASS_WITH_LEGACY_PREFIX", "semantic_vintage_checkpoint_prior_state": "PASS", "semantic_vintage_checkpoint_validation": "PASS", "semantic_vintage_external_anchor_present": false, "semantic_vintage_parse_strict": true, "semantic_vintages": true, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "vintage_record_hash": "ba9eda79371d1ac4c7c04a566e1e56502e11829ec857f28bfe8c71c100b38852", "warnings": [] }, { "balance_sheet": { "as_of": "2026-07-23", "periods": [ { "period": "Current feedlot inventory", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current fed-cattle inventory.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 35, "stale_days": 40, "state": "WATCH", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Cattle on feed", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_on_feed_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "feedlot_inventory", "unit": "head", "value": 11682000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": 2.0 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Incoming placement pipeline", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Incoming fed-cattle pipeline.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 35, "stale_days": 40, "state": "WATCH", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Monthly placements", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_placements_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "incoming_pipeline", "unit": "head", "value": 1704000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -10.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 35, "stale_days": 40, "state": "WATCH", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements under 600 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_less_than_600_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 320000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 35, "stale_days": 40, "state": "WATCH", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 600-699 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_600_699_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 240000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 35, "stale_days": 40, "state": "WATCH", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 700-799 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_700_799_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 400000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 35, "stale_days": 40, "state": "WATCH", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 800-899 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_800_899_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 444000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 35, "stale_days": 40, "state": "WATCH", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 900-999 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_900_999_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 225000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 35, "stale_days": 40, "state": "WATCH", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 1,000+ lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_1000_lbs_and_greater", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 75000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "USDA ERS-derived feeder-cattle reservoir outside feedlots; lower inventory can constrain future placements.", "freshness": { "cadence": "Quarterly USDA ERS feeder supply", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Feeder cattle outside feedlots", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_FEEDER_SUPPLY" ], "stage": "feeder_supply", "unit": "thousand_head", "value": 18776.97, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-04-01", "yoy_pct": 2.2631 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Fed-cattle outflow and meat production", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Fed-cattle outflow toward slaughter.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 35, "stale_days": 40, "state": "WATCH", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Monthly marketings", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_marketings_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "fed_outflow", "unit": "head", "value": 1551000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -12.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Non-marketing feedlot disappearance.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 35, "stale_days": 40, "state": "WATCH", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Other disappearance", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_other_disappearance_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "fed_outflow", "unit": "head", "value": 55000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18", "yoy_pct": -11.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Observed weekly cattle head throughput.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-23T21:30:04", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Weekly federally inspected slaughter", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "slaughter", "unit": "head", "value": 525000.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "yoy_pct": -7.4074 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Pounds produced per slaughtered animal.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-23T21:30:04", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Average dressed weight", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "yield", "unit": "lb_per_head", "value": 887.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "yoy_pct": 2.662 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Observed weekly beef output combines head throughput and carcass yield.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-23T21:30:04", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Weekly beef production", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "meat_output", "unit": "million_lb", "value": 464.5, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "yoy_pct": -5.0491 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Counterfactual pounds effect holding year-ago dressed weight constant.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-23T21:30:04", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Head-count contribution to weekly production change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_head_count_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "production_bridge", "unit": "million_lb", "value": -36.288, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Incremental pounds attributable to the dressed-weight change at current slaughter.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-23T21:30:04", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Dressed-weight contribution to weekly production change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "production_bridge", "unit": "million_lb", "value": 12.075, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "yoy_pct": null } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Trade and domestic availability", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Imported beef adds to domestic carcass-weight-equivalent availability.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date beef imports", "metadata": { "ytd_comparable": true, "ytd_through_month": 5 }, "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 2754566570.58, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": 9.9 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Exported beef removes product from domestic availability while reflecting foreign demand.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date beef exports", "metadata": { "ytd_comparable": true, "ytd_through_month": 5 }, "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 978518541.27, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": -17.2 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Imports less exports; this is a product-availability measure, not a fed-cattle-equivalent count.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date net beef imports", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 1776048029.31, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": -2.3381, "economic_read": "Weekly wholesale movement; descriptive context only because its futures validation gate has not passed.", "freshness": { "expected_latest_tuesday": "2026-07-21", "last_refresh_time_ct": "2026-07-22T14:20:16.416347-05:00", "latest_report_date": "2026-07-21", "reason": "Canonical Tuesday afternoon LM_XB403 history is current and complete.", "state": "PASS", "status_error": null, "status_report_date": "2026-07-21", "status_source_fingerprint": "e6bdbe15f174d0f6951242a4ce2db7c4bdb48a31f51f50442c7464b635d9a8de", "status_source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/boxed_beef/boxed_beef_tuesday_history_status.json" }, "label": "Tuesday Choice/Select average weekly change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "tuesday_cutout_average_change_pct", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_BOXED_TUESDAY" ], "stage": "wholesale_demand", "unit": "percent", "value": -2.3381, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-21", "yoy_pct": null } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Capacity, cash, herd, and policy context", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Standardized box-minus-live operating-spread proxy; not company net income and not a futures timing signal.", "freshness": { "business_release_lag": 0, "calendar_age_days": 0, "expected_report_date": "2026-07-23", "holiday_calendar_note": "Weekday-aware; USDA holiday exceptions may produce WATCH until the next release.", "reason": "Latest expected weekday USDA CEI report is present.", "release_cutoff_ct": "15:45", "report_date": "2026-07-23", "state": "PASS", "status": "PASS", "weekend_aware": true }, "label": "USDA CEI gross packer spread", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_CEI" ], "stage": "processing_economics", "unit": "usd_per_cwt_carcass", "value": 2.8309, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-23", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current operating status constrains or restores feeder-cattle inflow; duration and price impact are not assumed.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Southern livestock port status", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_APHIS" ], "stage": "biological_policy", "unit": "status", "value": "CLOSED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-23", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current cash transmission and feedyard/packer leverage context.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "pass_max_days": 2, "state": "PASS", "watch_max_days": 5 }, "label": "Blended live cash cattle", "metadata": { "change_vs_last_week_usd_per_cwt": -9.11 }, "metric_id": "blended_live_cash", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_CASH" ], "stage": "cash_transmission", "unit": "usd_per_cwt_live", "value": 230.14, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-23", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Replacement intentions inform herd rebuilding capacity; they do not guarantee retained females or calf-crop growth.", "freshness": { "cadence": "Annual USDA ERS herd replacement", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Intended heifer replacements", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "intended_heifer_replacements", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_HERD_REPLACEMENT" ], "stage": "breeding_herd", "unit": "thousand_head", "value": 8618.8, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-01-01", "yoy_pct": 0.361 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" } ], "reconciliations": [ { "actual": 1704000.0, "check_id": "cof_placement_buckets", "expected": 1704000.0, "name": "Placement weight buckets sum to placements", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 1000.0, "unit": "head" }, { "actual": 11682000.0, "check_id": "cof_head_flow", "expected": 11682000.0, "name": "Opening inventory plus placements less outflows equals closing inventory", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 1000.0, "unit": "head" }, { "actual": 464.5, "check_id": "weekly_production_bridge", "expected": 464.98699999999997, "name": "Year-ago production plus head effect plus weight effect reconciles to current production", "passed": true, "residual": -0.487, "tolerance": 2.3225000000000002, "unit": "million_lb" }, { "actual": 1776048029.31, "check_id": "net_trade_identity", "expected": 1776048029.31, "name": "Imports less exports equals net imports", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 0.01, "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent" } ], "status": "RECONCILED", "summary": { "beef_supply_change_pct": -5.0491, "dressed_weight_yoy_pct": 2.662, "exports_ytd_change_pct": -17.2, "imports_ytd_change_pct": 9.9, "observation_count": 24, "reconciliation_count": 4, "reconciliation_pass_count": 4, "slaughter_yoy_pct": -7.4074, "source_count": 9, "source_ledger_row_count": 9, "status": "RECONCILED", "weight_offset_of_head_decline_pct": 33.28 }, "unit_policy": "No cattle-head-to-beef-pound conversion is made without an exposed observed weight or typed derivation." }, "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "change_alerts": [ { "alert_id": "later_fed_pipeline_tightening", "counter_evidence": "Current cattle on feed are +2.0% YoY.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "TIGHTENING_LATER", "horizon": "3-18 months", "invalidation": "Placements and feeder availability normalize, or the livestock-border constraint is formally removed.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "WATCH", "summary": "The later fed-cattle pipeline is tightening, but this is not a futures signal.", "triggers": [ { "label": "Placements -10.0% YoY", "metric_id": "cof_placements_head" }, { "label": "Southern livestock ports closed", "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports" } ] }, { "alert_id": "weight_offsets_head_decline", "counter_evidence": "Reported weekly beef production remains -5.0% YoY.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "MEAT_CUSHION", "horizon": "current to 3 months", "invalidation": "Dressed weights stop offsetting lower head throughput.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "ACTIVE", "summary": "Heavier carcasses are replacing part of the beef tonnage lost to lower slaughter.", "triggers": [ { "label": "Slaughter -7.4% YoY", "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head" }, { "label": "Dressed weight +2.7% YoY", "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs" } ] }, { "alert_id": "trade_cushions_domestic_availability", "counter_evidence": "Product mix and imported lean are not fully interchangeable with Choice fed-beef cuts.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "DOMESTIC_AVAILABILITY_CUSHION", "horizon": "current to 6 months", "invalidation": "Imports reverse lower and exports recover enough to remove the net availability cushion.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "ACTIVE", "summary": "Trade flows are cushioning domestic beef availability despite tighter cattle head counts.", "triggers": [ { "label": "YTD imports +9.9%", "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe" }, { "label": "YTD exports -17.2%", "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe" } ] } ], "composer_contract": { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "composer_version": "alpha.structural_radar.composer.v2.0.0", "decision_effect": "NONE", "max_points": 0, "mode": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "conditional_contract_estimates": { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "contract_estimates": [ { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 245.4, 250.825 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 248.425, "contract_role": "near", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-06-19T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d1", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": 0.374873, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-22" }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 246.75, "predicted_response_pct": 0.676151, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-08", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -0.548147, 1.653802 ], "symbol": "LEQ6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 242.6, 254.025 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 248.65, "contract_role": "near", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-06-25T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d5", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": -0.273556, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-06-26" }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 246.75, "predicted_response_pct": 0.765928, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-08", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.683544, 2.951848 ], "symbol": "LEQ6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 240.2, 264.075 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 249.55, "contract_role": "near", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-07-16T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d20", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": -8.206687, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-07-20" }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 246.75, "predicted_response_pct": 1.131717, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-08", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ 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"conditional_report_response_price": 241.675, "contract_role": "deferred", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-07-16T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d20", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": -6.743335, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": "2026-07-20" }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 239.125, "predicted_response_pct": 1.06329, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-12", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.805714, 6.442563 ], "symbol": "LEZ6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 232.9, 258.5 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 243.8, "contract_role": "deferred", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-08-13T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": null, "horizon": "d40", "issuance_status": "MISSED_EX_ANTE_ISSUANCE_WINDOW", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "status": "OPEN_OR_NOT_YET_OBSERVABLE", "target_date": null }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 239.125, "predicted_response_pct": 1.958683, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-12", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": null, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -2.607012, 8.100815 ], "symbol": "LEZ6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" } ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "definition": "Conditional fixed-contract COF report-response estimates, never intrinsic fair value or 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at least 36 independent genuinely forward report releases and at least 10 unique releases per claimed horizon; correlated role-by-horizon cells and same-report revisions do not count as independent releases. 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"training_cutoff": "Strictly before each prediction release; every included label must also have completed before that release.", "uncertainty": "Residual 10th/90th-percentile response interval where enough walk-forward residuals exist.", "validation_method": "Expanding-window point-in-time walk-forward", "validation_protocol": "Expanding-window, point-in-time walk-forward evaluation against an expanding-mean diagnostic baseline." }, "module": "ALPHA_STRUCTURAL_RADAR_V1", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "previous_vintage_record_hash": "ba9eda79371d1ac4c7c04a566e1e56502e11829ec857f28bfe8c71c100b38852", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "revision_ledger": [ { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_on_feed_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_placements_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_marketings_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_other_disappearance_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_less_than_600_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_600_699_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_700_799_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_800_899_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_900_999_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_1000_lbs_and_greater", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_head_count_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-23" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-23" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "blended_live_cash", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-23" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "tuesday_cutout_average_change_pct", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-21" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-04-01" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "intended_heifer_replacements", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-01-01" } ], "schema_version": "1.0.0", "semantic_fingerprint": "e31019322423634d190b9ac72ae3aa91e4558084b4ca2c9d34398ba0bee8068d", "separation_contract": { "auto_promotion_path": false, "calls_decision_components": false, "official_decision_effect": "NONE", "radar_write_root": "/opt/alpha_structural_radar", "reads_decision_outputs": false, "source_root_read_only": "/opt/alpha_current", "wow_command_effect": "NONE", "write_allowlist": [ "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs/structural_radar_status.json", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs/structural_radar_history.json", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/data/structural_radar/vintages.jsonl", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/state/structural_radar.lock" ], "writes_decision_outputs": false }, "source_ledger": [ { "error": null, "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 35, "stale_days": 40, "state": "WATCH", "warn_days": 32 }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-06-18", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "2dd2e485b91212e18d64fd06b420f4dd2bc90caf93d905ff3dd47a5139260339", "source_id": "USDA_NASS_COF", "source_module": "cattle_on_feed", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/cattle_on_feed_status.json", "upstream_status": "WATCH", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-05", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "aebb62d1ceee9ae674dcede9578d9cb5eb0839760c1660c283384528c2733495", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_TRADE", "source_module": "import_exports", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/import_exports_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "business_release_lag": 0, "calendar_age_days": 0, "expected_report_date": "2026-07-23", "holiday_calendar_note": "Weekday-aware; USDA holiday exceptions may produce WATCH until the next release.", "reason": "Latest expected weekday USDA CEI report is present.", "release_cutoff_ct": "15:45", "report_date": "2026-07-23", "state": "PASS", "status": "PASS", "weekend_aware": true }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-23 after 15:30 CT", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "46efa5ba604f8869de6694880c8093f08f5c3dd40cbd8075bce48cf5eece9445", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_CEI", "source_module": "ALPHA_PACKER_ECONOMICS_V1", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/packer_economics_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-23", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "00148a94d86ecc3081937769dff986c370d88fe8e43f89136c0f998a7fad041a", "source_id": "USDA_APHIS", "source_module": "animal_health", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/animal_health_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "pass_max_days": 2, "state": "PASS", "watch_max_days": 5 }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-23 daily publication", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "4132512e071a41ee7e0654ea101a5a3cafff39366863f23be58af7c2ff02e33c", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_CASH", "source_module": "cash_cattle", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/cash_cattle_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "expected_latest_tuesday": "2026-07-21", "last_refresh_time_ct": "2026-07-22T14:20:16.416347-05:00", "latest_report_date": "2026-07-21", "reason": "Canonical Tuesday afternoon LM_XB403 history is current and complete.", "state": "PASS", "status_error": null, "status_report_date": "2026-07-21", "status_source_fingerprint": "e6bdbe15f174d0f6951242a4ce2db7c4bdb48a31f51f50442c7464b635d9a8de", "status_source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/boxed_beef/boxed_beef_tuesday_history_status.json" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-21", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "121b8a77d62ff30b5f1afd71ffe2611cc9375d4ecb3ae97aa333016d12fc05cf", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_BOXED_TUESDAY", "source_module": "boxed_beef_tuesday_history", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/boxed_beef/boxed_beef_tuesday_history.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-23T21:30:04", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-17", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "f468b1d80548609d84f35882f2e67229182829f725f7f2625c688f9afd217d04", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT", "source_module": "weekly_kill_weights", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/weekly_kill_weights.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "cadence": "Quarterly USDA ERS feeder supply", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-04-01", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "32d71256ffb42497325ea439db5ed6a00752be99019c9ab73562950ad87f581b", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_FEEDER_SUPPLY", "source_module": "ers_feeder_supply", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/ers_livestock_domestic_data/livestock-data-machine-readable-files/FeederCattleSuppliesOutsideFeedlots.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "DERIVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "cadence": "Annual USDA ERS herd replacement", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-01-01", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "281e3d55e23156459116f1b342105d36eb78c6d3295597ee52f60c846528960d", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_HERD_REPLACEMENT", "source_module": "ers_heifer_replacements", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/ers_livestock_domestic_data/livestock-data-machine-readable-files/heifersenteringherd.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" } ], "status": "PASS", "structural_futures_v2": { "cohort_timing_bridge": { "assumptions": { "contract_mapping": "Each possible market-ready day maps to the nearest still-unexpired Feb/Apr/Jun/Aug/Oct/Dec Live Cattle contract midpoint. Expiry uses the last weekday as an approximation and does not encode exchange holidays.", "days_on_feed": { "1000_lbs_and_greater": [ 50, 110 ], "600_699_lbs": [ 170, 230 ], "700_799_lbs": [ 140, 200 ], "800_899_lbs": [ 110, 170 ], "900_999_lbs": [ 80, 140 ], "less_than_600_lbs": [ 190, 250 ] }, "exposure_weighting": "Placement day and days-on-feed are modeled as independent discrete uniform assumptions, then convolved. These are scenario weights, not empirical probabilities.", "interpretation": "Head-equivalent exposure is a timing bridge, not deliverable supply, open interest, fair value, or a price forecast.", "placement_date_uncertainty": "Earliest uses activity-month start; latest uses activity-month end." }, "buckets": [ { "bucket_id": "less_than_600_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 209836.1, "delta_head_equivalent": -9836.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 219672.1, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.655738 }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 110163.9, "delta_head_equivalent": -5163.9, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 115327.9, "symbol": "LEG7", "window_day_share": 0.344262 } ], "current_head": 320000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 250, "minimum": 190 }, "delta_head": -15000, "delta_pct": -4.478, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-11-07", "latest": "2027-02-05" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-11-25", "p50": "2026-12-22", "p90": "2027-01-18", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 335000 }, { "bucket_id": "600_699_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 11549.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -1684.3, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 13233.7, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.048123 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 211189.8, "delta_head_equivalent": -30798.5, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 241988.4, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.879958 }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 17260.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -2517.2, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 19777.9, "symbol": "LEG7", "window_day_share": 0.07192 } ], "current_head": 240000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 230, "minimum": 170 }, "delta_head": -35000, "delta_pct": -12.727, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-10-18", "latest": "2027-01-16" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-11-05", "p50": "2026-12-02", "p90": "2026-12-29", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 275000 }, { "bucket_id": "700_799_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 183606.6, "delta_head_equivalent": -22950.8, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 206557.4, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.459016 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 216393.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -27049.2, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 243442.6, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.540984 } ], "current_head": 400000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 200, "minimum": 140 }, "delta_head": -50000, "delta_pct": -11.111, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-09-18", "latest": "2026-12-17" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-10-06", "p50": "2026-11-02", "p90": "2026-11-29", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 450000 }, { "bucket_id": "800_899_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 21366.5, "delta_head_equivalent": -3464.8, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 24831.3, "symbol": "LEQ6", "window_day_share": 0.048123 }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 382483.3, "delta_head_equivalent": -62024.3, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 444507.7, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.861449 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 40150.2, "delta_head_equivalent": -6510.8, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 46661.0, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.090428 } ], "current_head": 444000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 170, "minimum": 110 }, "delta_head": -72000, "delta_pct": -13.953, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-08-19", "latest": "2026-11-17" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-09-06", "p50": "2026-10-03", "p90": "2026-10-30", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 516000 }, { "bucket_id": "900_999_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 103278.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -2295.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 105573.8, "symbol": "LEQ6", "window_day_share": 0.459016 }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 121721.3, "delta_head_equivalent": -2704.9, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 124426.2, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.540984 } ], "current_head": 225000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 140, "minimum": 80 }, "delta_head": -5000, "delta_pct": -2.174, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-07-20", "latest": "2026-10-18" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-08-07", "p50": "2026-09-03", "p90": "2026-09-30", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 230000 }, { "bucket_id": "1000_lbs_and_greater", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-06", "current_head_equivalent": 2617.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -174.5, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 2792.2, "symbol": "LEM6", "window_day_share": 0.034902 }, { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 65600.2, "delta_head_equivalent": -4373.3, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 69973.6, "symbol": "LEQ6", "window_day_share": 0.874669 }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 6782.1, "delta_head_equivalent": -452.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 7234.3, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.090428 } ], "current_head": 75000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 110, "minimum": 50 }, "delta_head": -5000, "delta_pct": -6.25, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-06-20", "latest": "2026-09-18" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-07-08", "p50": "2026-08-04", "p90": "2026-08-31", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 80000 } ], "comparison": "SAME_ACTIVITY_MONTH_AS_RELEASED_YEAR_OVER_YEAR", "contracts": [ { "contract_month": "2026-06", "current_head_equivalent": 2617.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -174.5, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 2792.2, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEM6" }, { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 190245.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -10133.3, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 200378.6, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEQ6" }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 706142.8, "delta_head_equivalent": -89816.5, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 795959.3, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEV6" }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 677569.5, "delta_head_equivalent": -74194.6, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 751764.1, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEZ6" }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 127424.6, "delta_head_equivalent": -7681.1, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 135105.8, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEG7" } ], "latest_activity_month": "2026-05-01", "latest_release_date": "2026-06-18", "prior_year_activity_month": "2025-05-01", "prior_year_release_date": "2025-06-20", "reconciliations": [ { "actual": 1704000.0, "check_id": "latest_bucket_sum_to_placements", "expected": 1704000.0, "passed": true, "residual_head": 0.0, "tolerance_head": 1000.0 }, { "actual": 1886000.0, "check_id": "prior_bucket_sum_to_placements", "expected": 1886000.0, "passed": true, "residual_head": 0.0, "tolerance_head": 1000.0 }, { "actual": -182000.0, "check_id": "contract_exposure_delta_to_bucket_delta", "expected": -182000.0, "passed": true, "residual_head": 0.0, "tolerance_head": 1.0 } ], "status": "PASS" }, "contract_response_models": { "continuous_or_stitched_prices_used": false, "contract_estimates": [ { "cohort_timing_exposure": { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 190245.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -10133.3, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 200378.6, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEQ6" }, "contract_id": "LE-2026-08", "horizons": [ { "conditional_fair_value": 248.425, 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"UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "fair_value_definition": "Same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close multiplied by the estimated report-response return; not an official settlement, intrinsic value, or promoted forecast.", "feature_names": [ "on_feed_yoy_delta_pp", "placements_yoy_delta_pp", "marketings_yoy_delta_pp", "season_sin", "season_cos" ], "fitted_artifact": { "artifact_sha256": "7e4c7d90dacb4a2a4364f1162a2ceb59b0d98f66ea9d9cb620e960f0c21dcf5c", "coefficients_intercept_first": [ 1.637046266685, -0.887110174762, -0.195111224833, -0.317762161399, 0.50808229049, -0.293302016189 ], "feature_means": [ -0.32, -1.693333333333, -1.506666666667, 0.044880338717, 0.031547005384 ], "feature_names": [ "on_feed_yoy_delta_pp", "placements_yoy_delta_pp", "marketings_yoy_delta_pp", "season_sin", "season_cos" ], "feature_scales": [ 2.104978226332, 8.176345285164, 8.314442588385, 0.700941572836, 0.711105796009 ], "ridge_penalty": 4.0, "training_row_count": 75, "training_row_identity_sha256": "e66dad219c983fde988e04a569aa3adc0fc81d5e37247d97f8854df408c32f52" }, "gate_checks": { "beats_zero_return_baseline": true, "directional_accuracy_at_least_52pct": true, "interval_80_coverage_65_to_90pct": false, "mae_skill_at_least_5pct": false, "n_oos_at_least_36": true, "prediction_correlation_at_least_0_10": false }, "horizon": "d40", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "max_training_label_date": "2026-06-15", "min_train_events": 24, "model_version": "cof-fixed-contract-ridge-v2.1.0", "n_train": 75, "pre_report_close": 239.125, "predicted_response_pct": 1.958683, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-12", "prediction_release_date": "2026-06-18", "prediction_symbol": "LEZ6", "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "research_only": true, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -2.607012, 8.100815 ], "role": "deferred", "status": "PASS", "strictly_prior_training": true, "training_max_release_date": "2026-04-17", "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "walk_forward": { "baseline_mae_return_pct": 3.632719, "directional_accuracy": 0.64, "interval_80_coverage": 0.6, "interval_coverage_n": 35, "mae_return_pct": 3.544136, "mae_skill_vs_expanding_mean": 0.024385, "mae_skill_vs_zero_return": 0.107422, "n_oos": 50, "prediction_correlation": -0.02018, "zero_return_baseline_mae_pct": 3.970674 }, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" } ], "multiplicity_policy": "Twelve role-by-horizon candidates are exposed together; no familywise or FDR gate has passed, so operational promotion is prohibited.", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "statistical_gate_pass_count": 0, "target_definition": "Nth actual later RTH last-trade close versus same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close before the after-close COF release; these are not official CME settlements." }, "decision_effect": "NONE", "errors": [], "headline": "Placement cohorts are mapped to contract windows; price estimates remain conditional and research-only.", "live": false, "max_points": 0, "mode": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "module": "ALPHA_STRUCTURAL_FUTURES_V2", "point_in_time_events": { "as_of_cutoff_ct": "2026-07-24T05:50:36.499685-05:00", "consensus_surprise_available": false, "consensus_surprise_used": false, "event_count": 114, "feature_policy": "Only values printed in the as-released row plus activity-month season terms are features.", "latest_event": { "activity_month": "2026-05-01", "availability_rule": "Feature values become available only at the recorded USDA release timestamp.", "event_id": "795942", "observations": [ { "known_at_ct": "2026-06-18T14:00:00-05:00", "observation_id": "on_feed_yoy_delta_pp", "unit": "percentage_point", "value": 2.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED_RELEASE" }, { "known_at_ct": "2026-06-18T14:00:00-05:00", "observation_id": "placements_yoy_delta_pp", "unit": "percentage_point", "value": -10.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED_RELEASE" }, { "known_at_ct": "2026-06-18T14:00:00-05:00", "observation_id": "marketings_yoy_delta_pp", "unit": "percentage_point", "value": -12.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED_RELEASE" }, { "known_at_ct": "2026-06-18T14:00:00-05:00", "observation_id": "season_sin", "unit": "cyclical_component", "value": 0.5, "value_kind": "DERIVED_FROM_ACTIVITY_MONTH" }, { "known_at_ct": "2026-06-18T14:00:00-05:00", "observation_id": "season_cos", "unit": "cyclical_component", "value": -0.866025, "value_kind": "DERIVED_FROM_ACTIVITY_MONTH" } ], "provenance": { "source_sha256": "da477404f359a36b9d2b412f0dfdeaa4f3b05596c898c0655184124228fa9fbf", "source_url": "https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795942/cofd0626.txt" }, "release_date": "2026-06-18", "release_revision_id": "795942@2026-06-18T14:00:00-05:00", "release_timestamp_ct": "2026-06-18T14:00:00-05:00", "release_timestamp_kind": "RECORDED_SOURCE_TIMESTAMP", "research_only": true, "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false } }, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "research_only": true, "schema_version": "alpha.structural_futures.v2", "semantic_fingerprint": "de693af1210b18b90f1cd0fe2ebc6109f04926e5f266bd50b900748233d84f2c", "source_ledger": [ { "path": "/opt/alpha_current/data/cattle_on_feed/report_events.csv", "read_only": true, "rows": 114, "sha256": "8c9fa84f4a2ce005f1a3e636a6a01f0051000c3b69de93c11e649ab753fa166b", "source_id": "USDA_NASS_COF_AS_RELEASED" }, { "path": "/opt/alpha_current/data/cattle_on_feed/le_fixed_ohlcv_1d.parquet", "read_only": true, "rows": 14314, "sha256": "33334e4520c38680aee192cbc3a863be6dd94b475fe7b1b898d9e76d0265fbde", "source_id": "DATABENTO_LE_FIXED_CONTRACT_DAILY" } ], "status": "PASS", "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "validation": { "all_training_labels_completed_before_prediction": true, "cohort_reconciliations_passed": true, "corrections_after_response_anchor_excluded": true, "data_status": { "event_rows": 114, "first_event_date": "2017-01-27", "fixed_contract_rows": 14314, "latest_event_date": "2026-06-18", "latest_event_price_reference_available": true, "price_first_date": "2020-01-02", "price_last_date": "2026-07-23", "response_panel_rows": 231 }, "events_filtered_to_as_of_cutoff": true, "historical_correction_policy": "Recorded same-date revisions are cutoff-aware. Later-date corrections are excluded from the report-response panel so they cannot be paired with an already-observed original-report return path; displaced originals are not guaranteed recoverable for every historical USDA correction.", "historical_original_corrections_complete": false, "latest_event_excluded_from_training": true, "model_gate_is_not_operational_gate": true, "numeric_forecast_policy": "No estimate is emitted with insufficient prior history; no model estimate affects WOW or decisions.", "point_in_time_release_timestamps": true, "price_reference_is_official_settlement": false, "price_reference_timestamp_retained": false, "price_rows_filtered_to_as_of_cutoff": true, "price_rows_unique_by_date_contract": true }, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "system_quality_audit": { "accountability_status": "PARTIAL", "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "critical_gates": { "decision_isolation_gate": true, "immutable_registry_gate": true, "no_operational_promotion_gate": true, "no_predictive_skill_claim_gate": true, "overall_health_gate": true, "point_in_time_gate": true, "reconciliation_gate": true, "runtime_permission_probe_gate": true, "source_alignment_and_price_freshness_gate": true, "wow_isolation_gate": true }, "critical_gates_passed": true, "decision_effect": "NONE", "dimensions": [ { "dimension_id": "SOURCE_PROVENANCE", "earned": 15.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "At least eight unique structural sources have explicit non-stale freshness, observed-at values, and fingerprints", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Every base ledger row is identified, fingerprinted, and read-only", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Both required V2 sources are nonempty, read-only, and SHA-256 fingerprinted", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Base COF and V2 latest releases align, and the fixed-contract panel is current", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Base structural vintages parse strictly, checkpoint tail loss, and chain new semantic records", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 } ], "label": "Source provenance and semantic integrity", "status": "PASS", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "POINT_IN_TIME", "earned": 12.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Events and prices are filtered to the as-of cutoff", "max_points": 4.0, "passed": true, "points": 4.0 }, { "criterion": "Training labels complete before prediction and latest event is excluded", "max_points": 4.0, "passed": true, "points": 4.0 }, { "criterion": "As-released event timestamps are retained", "max_points": 4.0, "passed": true, "points": 4.0 }, { "criterion": "Daily price reference retains a final-bar timestamp", "max_points": 1.5, "passed": false, "points": 0 }, { "criterion": "Historical original/correction pairs are complete", "max_points": 1.5, "passed": false, "points": 0 } ], "label": "Point-in-time and leakage controls", "limitation": "Capped at 12/15: the daily panel lacks a retained final-bar timestamp and historical original/correction completeness is not guaranteed.", "status": "PARTIAL", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "RECONCILIATION", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "All base observations are typed and reconciliations recompute within explicit units/tolerances", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Placement cohort-to-contract reconciliations recompute within head tolerances", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Accounting and reconciliation", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 }, { "dimension_id": "CONTRACT_HORIZONS", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Fixed contracts are used without continuous stitching", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "A unique, fully estimated near/mid/deferred D1/D5/D20/D40 fixed-contract grid is present", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Contract and horizon specificity", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 }, { "dimension_id": "MODEL_GOVERNANCE", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Operational promotion is false", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 }, { "criterion": "Predictive edge remains explicitly unproven", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 }, { "criterion": "Calibration remains explicitly incomplete", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 }, { "criterion": "Pricing authority and execution points are zero", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 } ], "label": "Model governance without promotion leakage", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 }, { "dimension_id": "FORWARD_ACCOUNTABILITY", "earned": 9.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Append-only registry freeze hashes validate", "max_points": 2.0, "passed": true, "points": 2.0 }, { "criterion": "Prior sibling checkpoint detects single-file tail loss", "max_points": 1.0, "passed": true, "points": 1.0 }, { "criterion": "An external protected/WORM ledger anchor exists", "max_points": 1.0, "passed": false, "points": 0 }, { "criterion": "Forecast IDs are deterministic and issuance is deduplicated", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Open and matured-unresolved outcomes remain explicit and unscored", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "At least 36 independent forward report releases and 10 unique releases per claimed horizon are resolved", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": false, "points": 0 } ], "label": "Immutable forward forecast accountability", "limitation": "0 correlated forecast cells across 0 independent report releases are resolved. Same-report roles, horizons, and revisions do not inflate the independent-release threshold. The sibling checkpoint is best-effort and no external WORM anchor exists; accountability is partial and predictive profitability is not graded.", "status": "PARTIAL", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "OPERATIONAL_ISOLATION", "earned": 15.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Base radar has no decision or WOW effect", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Registry writes only below the sibling radar root and the required runtime permission probe passes", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "No live-trade use, auto-promotion, or execution points", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Operational and WOW Command isolation", "status": "PASS", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "TRANSPARENCY", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Complete model card states purpose, target, data, leakage controls, limitations, and governance", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Scorecard names a frozen baseline and baseline-relative primary metric", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Model-card and baseline transparency", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 } ], "eligibility": { "operational_promotion_eligible": false, "predictive_profitability_grade_eligible": false, "status": "ELIGIBLE_SYSTEM_QUALITY_ONLY", "system_quality_grade_eligible": true }, "explicit_exclusions": [ "predictive profitability", "tradable edge", "live execution quality", "risk-adjusted returns" ], "max_points": 0, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "profitability_claim": false, "rubric_id": "ALPHA_SYSTEM_QUALITY_NON_PROFITABILITY_V1", "schema_version": "alpha.system_quality_audit.v1", "scope": "SYSTEM_DESIGN_DATA_INTEGRITY_GOVERNANCE_AND_ACCOUNTABILITY", "score": { "earned": 91.0, "grade": "A-", "maximum": 100.0, "normalized_10": 9.1 }, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "theses": [ { "active_alert_ids": [ "later_fed_pipeline_tightening", "weight_offsets_head_decline", "trade_cushions_domestic_availability" ], "confirmation": "Later marketings and slaughter tighten after placement cohorts roll forward while meat cushions fade.", "contradictions": [ "cof_on_feed_head", "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs" ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "cof_placements_head", "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "beef_exports_ytd_cwe" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "current through 18 months", "invalidation": "Placements recover or meat availability remains ample enough to prevent the expected tightening.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "PRIMARY_WORKING_HYPOTHESIS", "state": "TIGHTENING_LATER_WITH_MEAT_CUSHIONS_NOW", "thesis_id": "later_head_tightness_near_meat_cushion", "title": "Later fed-cattle tightness, buffered near-term beef availability" }, { "confirmation": "Weights, imports, dairy-beef supply, or weak exports continue replacing domestic fed-cattle tonnage.", "contradictions": [ "cof_placements_head", "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots" ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "current through 12 months", "invalidation": "Weights normalize and trade cushions reverse before placements recover.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "COMPETING_HYPOTHESIS", "thesis_id": "meat_availability_outlasts_head_shortage", "title": "Beef availability stays adequate longer than cattle head counts imply" }, { "confirmation": "Verified capacity exits or sustained shift reductions tighten the hook-to-cattle balance.", "contradictions": [ "No verified plant closure is inferred from margin data alone." ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "cof_marketings_head", "weekly_fi_slaughter_head" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "3-24 months", "invalidation": "Margins recover and observed capacity remains stable.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "COMPETING_HYPOTHESIS", "thesis_id": "capacity_rationalization_changes_leverage", "title": "Processing-capacity rationalization changes packer and feedyard leverage" } ], "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "validation": { "all_units_typed": true, "decision_effect": "NONE", "failed_reconciliations": [], "futures_pricing_model_active": false, "maximum_execution_points": 0, "missing_core_metrics": [], "missing_inputs": [], "numeric_forecast_policy": "No forward numeric value is emitted until an independently validated model supplies it.", "point_in_time_only": true, "promotion_gate_passed": false, "semantic_vintage_chain_validation": "PASS_WITH_LEGACY_PREFIX", "semantic_vintage_checkpoint_prior_state": "PASS", "semantic_vintage_checkpoint_validation": "PASS", "semantic_vintage_external_anchor_present": false, "semantic_vintage_parse_strict": true, "semantic_vintages": true, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "vintage_record_hash": "ac0b5d992e6e11f1b94692b27bd2818c5e7893e81704ae3762757f518cbf30d0", "warnings": [] }, { "balance_sheet": { "as_of": "2026-07-24", "periods": [ { "period": "Current feedlot inventory", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current fed-cattle inventory.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Cattle on feed", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_on_feed_head", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "feedlot_inventory", "unit": "head", "value": 11370000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24", "yoy_pct": 2.0 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Incoming placement pipeline", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Incoming fed-cattle pipeline.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Monthly placements", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_placements_head", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "incoming_pipeline", "unit": "head", "value": 1399000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24", "yoy_pct": -3.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements under 600 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_less_than_600_lbs", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 325000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 600-699 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_600_699_lbs", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 225000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 700-799 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_700_799_lbs", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 300000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 800-899 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_800_899_lbs", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 309000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 900-999 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_900_999_lbs", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 160000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 1,000+ lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_1000_lbs_and_greater", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 80000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "USDA ERS-derived feeder-cattle reservoir outside feedlots; lower inventory can constrain future placements.", "freshness": { "cadence": "Quarterly USDA ERS feeder supply", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Feeder cattle outside feedlots", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_FEEDER_SUPPLY" ], "stage": "feeder_supply", "unit": "thousand_head", "value": 18776.97, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-04-01", "yoy_pct": 2.2631 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Fed-cattle outflow and meat production", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Fed-cattle outflow toward slaughter.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Monthly marketings", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_marketings_head", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "fed_outflow", "unit": "head", "value": 1661000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24", "yoy_pct": -3.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Non-marketing feedlot disappearance.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Other disappearance", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_other_disappearance_head", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "fed_outflow", "unit": "head", "value": 50000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24", "yoy_pct": -6.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Observed weekly cattle head throughput.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-24T21:30:01", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Weekly federally inspected slaughter", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "slaughter", "unit": "head", "value": 525000.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "yoy_pct": -7.4074 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Pounds produced per slaughtered animal.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-24T21:30:01", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Average dressed weight", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "yield", "unit": "lb_per_head", "value": 887.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "yoy_pct": 2.662 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Observed weekly beef output combines head throughput and carcass yield.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-24T21:30:01", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Weekly beef production", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "meat_output", "unit": "million_lb", "value": 464.5, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "yoy_pct": -5.0491 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Counterfactual pounds effect holding year-ago dressed weight constant.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-24T21:30:01", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Head-count contribution to weekly production change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_head_count_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "production_bridge", "unit": "million_lb", "value": -36.288, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Incremental pounds attributable to the dressed-weight change at current slaughter.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-24T21:30:01", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Dressed-weight contribution to weekly production change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "production_bridge", "unit": "million_lb", "value": 12.075, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "yoy_pct": null } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Trade and domestic availability", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Imported beef adds to domestic carcass-weight-equivalent availability.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date beef imports", "metadata": { "ytd_comparable": true, "ytd_through_month": 5 }, "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 2754566570.58, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": 9.9 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Exported beef removes product from domestic availability while reflecting foreign demand.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date beef exports", "metadata": { "ytd_comparable": true, "ytd_through_month": 5 }, "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 978518541.27, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": -17.2 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Imports less exports; this is a product-availability measure, not a fed-cattle-equivalent count.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date net beef imports", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 1776048029.31, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": -2.3381, "economic_read": "Weekly wholesale movement; descriptive context only because its futures validation gate has not passed.", "freshness": { "expected_latest_tuesday": "2026-07-21", "last_refresh_time_ct": "2026-07-22T14:20:16.416347-05:00", "latest_report_date": "2026-07-21", "reason": "Canonical Tuesday afternoon LM_XB403 history is current and complete.", "state": "PASS", "status_error": null, "status_report_date": "2026-07-21", "status_source_fingerprint": "e6bdbe15f174d0f6951242a4ce2db7c4bdb48a31f51f50442c7464b635d9a8de", "status_source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/boxed_beef/boxed_beef_tuesday_history_status.json" }, "label": "Tuesday Choice/Select average weekly change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "tuesday_cutout_average_change_pct", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_BOXED_TUESDAY" ], "stage": "wholesale_demand", "unit": "percent", "value": -2.3381, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-21", "yoy_pct": null } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Capacity, cash, herd, and policy context", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Standardized box-minus-live operating-spread proxy; not company net income and not a futures timing signal.", "freshness": { "business_release_lag": 0, "calendar_age_days": 0, "expected_report_date": "2026-07-24", "holiday_calendar_note": "Weekday-aware; USDA holiday exceptions may produce WATCH until the next release.", "reason": "Latest expected weekday USDA CEI report is present.", "release_cutoff_ct": "15:45", "report_date": "2026-07-24", "state": "PASS", "status": "PASS", "weekend_aware": true }, "label": "USDA CEI gross packer spread", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_CEI" ], "stage": "processing_economics", "unit": "usd_per_cwt_carcass", "value": 3.6563, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current operating status constrains or restores feeder-cattle inflow; duration and price impact are not assumed.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Southern livestock port status", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "source_ids": [ "USDA_APHIS" ], "stage": "biological_policy", "unit": "status", "value": "CLOSED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current cash transmission and feedyard/packer leverage context.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "pass_max_days": 2, "state": "PASS", "watch_max_days": 5 }, "label": "Blended live cash cattle", "metadata": { "change_vs_last_week_usd_per_cwt": -8.21 }, "metric_id": "blended_live_cash", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_CASH" ], "stage": "cash_transmission", "unit": "usd_per_cwt_live", "value": 230.59, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Replacement intentions inform herd rebuilding capacity; they do not guarantee retained females or calf-crop growth.", "freshness": { "cadence": "Annual USDA ERS herd replacement", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Intended heifer replacements", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "intended_heifer_replacements", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_HERD_REPLACEMENT" ], "stage": "breeding_herd", "unit": "thousand_head", "value": 8618.8, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-01-01", "yoy_pct": 0.361 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" } ], "reconciliations": [ { "actual": 1399000.0, "check_id": "cof_placement_buckets", "expected": 1399000.0, "name": "Placement weight buckets sum to placements", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 1000.0, "unit": "head" }, { "actual": 11370000.0, "check_id": "cof_head_flow", "expected": 11370000.0, "name": "Opening inventory plus placements less outflows equals closing inventory", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 1000.0, "unit": "head" }, { "actual": 464.5, "check_id": "weekly_production_bridge", "expected": 464.98699999999997, "name": "Year-ago production plus head effect plus weight effect reconciles to current production", "passed": true, "residual": -0.487, "tolerance": 2.3225000000000002, "unit": "million_lb" }, { "actual": 1776048029.31, "check_id": "net_trade_identity", "expected": 1776048029.31, "name": "Imports less exports equals net imports", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 0.01, "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent" } ], "status": "RECONCILED", "summary": { "beef_supply_change_pct": -5.0491, "dressed_weight_yoy_pct": 2.662, "exports_ytd_change_pct": -17.2, "imports_ytd_change_pct": 9.9, "observation_count": 24, "reconciliation_count": 4, "reconciliation_pass_count": 4, "slaughter_yoy_pct": -7.4074, "source_count": 9, "source_ledger_row_count": 9, "status": "RECONCILED", "weight_offset_of_head_decline_pct": 33.28 }, "unit_policy": "No cattle-head-to-beef-pound conversion is made without an exposed observed weight or typed derivation." }, "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "change_alerts": [ { "alert_id": "weight_offsets_head_decline", "counter_evidence": "Reported weekly beef production remains -5.0% YoY.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "MEAT_CUSHION", "horizon": "current to 3 months", "invalidation": "Dressed weights stop offsetting lower head throughput.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "ACTIVE", "summary": "Heavier carcasses are replacing part of the beef tonnage lost to lower slaughter.", "triggers": [ { "label": "Slaughter -7.4% YoY", "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head" }, { "label": "Dressed weight +2.7% YoY", "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs" } ] }, { "alert_id": "trade_cushions_domestic_availability", "counter_evidence": "Product mix and imported lean are not fully interchangeable with Choice fed-beef cuts.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "DOMESTIC_AVAILABILITY_CUSHION", "horizon": "current to 6 months", "invalidation": "Imports reverse lower and exports recover enough to remove the net availability cushion.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "ACTIVE", "summary": "Trade flows are cushioning domestic beef availability despite tighter cattle head counts.", "triggers": [ { "label": "YTD imports +9.9%", "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe" }, { "label": "YTD exports -17.2%", "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe" } ] } ], "composer_contract": { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "composer_version": "alpha.structural_radar.composer.v2.0.0", "decision_effect": "NONE", "max_points": 0, "mode": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "conditional_contract_estimates": { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "contract_estimates": [ { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 220.725, 225.6 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 223.425, "contract_role": "near", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-07-27T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": "SFR-73692CE048D34EC0D5DE46B0", "horizon": "d1", "issuance_status": "FROZEN_WHILE_OPEN", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "status": "OPEN_OR_NOT_YET_OBSERVABLE", "target_date": null }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 222.575, "predicted_response_pct": 0.384167, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-10", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": "OPEN", "release_date": "2026-07-24", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -0.825625, 1.358383 ], "symbol": "LEV6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 218.1, 228.25 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 223.45, "contract_role": "near", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-07-31T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": "SFR-8D50347DB9AA396B28607EEC", "horizon": "d5", "issuance_status": "FROZEN_WHILE_OPEN", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "status": "OPEN_OR_NOT_YET_OBSERVABLE", "target_date": null }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 222.575, "predicted_response_pct": 0.391751, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-10", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": "OPEN", "release_date": "2026-07-24", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -2.016041, 2.55228 ], "symbol": "LEV6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 214.75, 236.125 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 223.3, "contract_role": "near", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-08-21T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": "SFR-592CF197E05B4EBF7B2E4549", "horizon": "d20", "issuance_status": "FROZEN_WHILE_OPEN", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "status": "OPEN_OR_NOT_YET_OBSERVABLE", "target_date": null }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 222.575, "predicted_response_pct": 0.320481, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-10", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": "OPEN", "release_date": "2026-07-24", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -3.521256, 6.092773 ], "symbol": "LEV6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 215.35, 239.875 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 224.35, "contract_role": "near", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-09-18T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": "SFR-3C71DE07DDDBC33D8A855269", "horizon": "d40", "issuance_status": "FROZEN_WHILE_OPEN", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "status": "OPEN_OR_NOT_YET_OBSERVABLE", "target_date": null }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 222.575, "predicted_response_pct": 0.802892, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-10", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": "OPEN", "release_date": "2026-07-24", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -3.24287, 7.775708 ], "symbol": "LEV6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 220.725, 224.85 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 223.15, "contract_role": "mid", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-07-27T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": "SFR-96FE853483BD3477CAC4373A", "horizon": "d1", "issuance_status": "FROZEN_WHILE_OPEN", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "status": 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"4012dd686fe6f24461d4819a731c9080b75211a581b0a86999a8259a781060b9", "horizon": "d20", "interval": [ -2.421714, 5.803479 ], "issued_at_ct": "2026-07-24T16:50:11.302156-05:00", "max_points": 0, "model_version": "cof-fixed-contract-ridge-v2.1.0", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "outcome": null, "outcome_status": "OPEN", "predicted_price": 224.325, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2027-02", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "research_only": true, "status": "OPEN", "target_date": "2026-08-21T13:05:00-05:00", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "content_hash": "c18b7e95a31c104f705b6e04d57c0ba7c2f654f8cbff2b34747845eea8330bac", "contract": "LEG7", "decision_effect": "NONE", "expected_return_pct": 0.872795, "forecast_id": "SFR-191BE50CAE29E1DC3589A9C1", "freeze_fingerprint": "e34d1639569bcfecb6be1333be9ce21f7c349bf56b26d7ff0aca0e27224b1a58", "horizon": "d40", "interval": [ -4.973402, 7.007314 ], "issued_at_ct": "2026-07-24T16:50:11.302156-05:00", "max_points": 0, "model_version": "cof-fixed-contract-ridge-v2.1.0", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "outcome": null, "outcome_status": "OPEN", "predicted_price": 225.25, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2027-02", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "research_only": true, "status": "OPEN", "target_date": "2026-09-18T13:05:00-05:00", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" } ], "futures_implications": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESES", "generated_at_ct": "2026-07-24T16:50:11.302156-05:00", "headline": { "confidence": "HIGH", "dominant_stage": "current_inventory_and_pounds", "horizon": "current through 6 months", "state": "CURRENT_AVAILABILITY_CUSHIONED", "text": "Current inventory and meat-availability offsets are more visible than a later cattle shortage.", "what_changed": "Changed observations: cof_on_feed_head, cof_placements_head, cof_marketings_head, cof_other_disappearance_head, cof_less_than_600_lbs, cof_600_699_lbs, cof_700_799_lbs, cof_800_899_lbs and 5 more." }, "history": { "changed_metric_ids": [ "cof_on_feed_head", "cof_placements_head", "cof_marketings_head", "cof_other_disappearance_head", "cof_less_than_600_lbs", "cof_600_699_lbs", "cof_700_799_lbs", "cof_800_899_lbs", "cof_900_999_lbs", "cof_1000_lbs_and_greater", "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "southern_livestock_ports", "blended_live_cash" ], "previous_fingerprint": "e31019322423634d190b9ac72ae3aa91e4558084b4ca2c9d34398ba0bee8068d", "semantic_changed": true, "vintage_count": 29, "vintage_recorded": true }, "live_trade_status": "DISABLED", "max_points": 0, "mode": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "model_card": { "baseline": "Expanding historical mean inside V2 walk-forward diagnostics; zero-change baseline in the immutable forward registry.", "calibration_policy": "No calibrated claim until at least 36 independent genuinely forward report releases and at least 10 unique releases per claimed horizon; correlated role-by-horizon cells and same-report revisions do not count as independent releases. Current status remains NOT_CALIBRATED.", "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "data_sources": [ "USDA NASS COF as-released event rows", "Databento Live Cattle fixed-contract daily bars" ], "evaluation_metrics": [ "MAE", "baseline-relative MAE skill", "directional accuracy", "prediction correlation", "80% interval coverage" ], "fairness_scope": "Not applicable to people; monitor contract-month and market-regime coverage instead.", "feature_families": [ "USDA COF year-over-year release values", "activity-month seasonality" ], "features": [ "on_feed_yoy_delta_pp", "placements_yoy_delta_pp", "marketings_yoy_delta_pp", "activity_month_season_sin", "activity_month_season_cos" ], "governance": { "auto_promotion_path": false, "decision_effect": "NONE", "max_points": 0, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "horizon_definitions": { "d1": "1 actual later fixed-contract session(s)", "d20": "20 actual later fixed-contract session(s)", "d40": "40 actual later fixed-contract session(s)", "d5": "5 actual later fixed-contract session(s)" }, "horizons": [ "d1", "d5", "d20", "d40" ], "intended_uses": [ "research", "hypothesis tracking", "forward accountability", "contract-window comparison" ], "known_limitations": [ "No contemporaneous consensus-surprise feature", "Conditional report response is not all-factor intrinsic value", "Weekday target scheduling is conservative and is reconciled to actual fixed-contract sessions at resolution", "No demonstrated forward predictive edge yet", "No transaction costs, slippage, liquidity, or executable strategy economics" ], "leakage_controls": [ "As-released report values only", "Latest event excluded from training", "Training labels must complete before prediction", "Forward registry rejects horizons already mature at first issuance" ], "lifecycle_status": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "model_name": "Structural Futures V2 fixed-contract COF response", "model_type": "Expanding-window ridge regression with fixed-contract event responses", "model_version": "cof-fixed-contract-ridge-v2.1.0", "monitoring": { "baseline_relative_scorecard": true, "calibration_minimum_unique_report_releases": 36, "immutable_forecast_book": true, "open_outcomes_retained": true }, "owner": "Alpha Structural Radar research boundary", "prediction_population": "Highest-volume unexpired Live Cattle fixed contract and the next two listed expiries on the release date.", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "prohibited_uses": [ "WOW Command input", "official decision input", "live trading", "position sizing", "intrinsic fair-value claim" ], "promotion_criteria": [ "At least 36 independent genuinely forward report releases", "At least 10 unique report releases per claimed horizon", "Positive baseline-relative MAE skill with stable directional evidence", "Independent governance review; never automatic promotion" ], "promotion_gate_passed": false, "purpose": "Estimate a conditional fixed-contract price response after a Cattle on Feed release.", "reproducibility": "Each issuance freezes the implementation SHA-256, fitted ridge coefficients/normalization/penalty, exact training-row identity hash, event features, source hashes, and model-spec hash.", "schema_version": "alpha.model_card.structural_futures_v2.v1", "status": "RESEARCH_ONLY_UNVALIDATED", "target": "Nth actual later RTH last-trade close versus same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close before the after-close COF release; these are not official CME settlements.", "target_definition": "Nth actual later RTH last-trade close versus same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close before the after-close COF release; these are not official CME settlements.", "training": { "continuous_or_stitched_prices_used": false, "fixed_contract_only": true, "method": "Ridge regression fit only to fully labeled events available before each prediction timestamp.", "minimum_train_events": 24, "walk_forward_evaluation": true }, "training_cutoff": "Strictly before each prediction release; every included label must also have completed before that release.", "uncertainty": "Residual 10th/90th-percentile response interval where enough walk-forward residuals exist.", "validation_method": "Expanding-window point-in-time walk-forward", "validation_protocol": "Expanding-window, point-in-time walk-forward evaluation against an expanding-mean diagnostic baseline." }, "module": "ALPHA_STRUCTURAL_RADAR_V1", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "previous_vintage_record_hash": "ac0b5d992e6e11f1b94692b27bd2818c5e7893e81704ae3762757f518cbf30d0", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "revision_ledger": [ { "detail": "Period advanced from 2026-06-18 to 2026-07-24.", "metric_id": "cof_on_feed_head", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24" }, { "detail": "Period advanced from 2026-06-18 to 2026-07-24.", "metric_id": "cof_placements_head", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24" }, { "detail": "Period advanced from 2026-06-18 to 2026-07-24.", "metric_id": "cof_marketings_head", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24" }, { "detail": "Period advanced from 2026-06-18 to 2026-07-24.", "metric_id": "cof_other_disappearance_head", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24" }, { "detail": "Period advanced from 2026-06-18 to 2026-07-24.", "metric_id": "cof_less_than_600_lbs", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24" }, { "detail": "Period advanced from 2026-06-18 to 2026-07-24.", "metric_id": "cof_600_699_lbs", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24" }, { "detail": "Period advanced from 2026-06-18 to 2026-07-24.", "metric_id": "cof_700_799_lbs", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24" }, { "detail": "Period advanced from 2026-06-18 to 2026-07-24.", "metric_id": "cof_800_899_lbs", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24" }, { "detail": "Period advanced from 2026-06-18 to 2026-07-24.", "metric_id": "cof_900_999_lbs", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24" }, { "detail": "Period advanced from 2026-06-18 to 2026-07-24.", "metric_id": "cof_1000_lbs_and_greater", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_head_count_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Period advanced from 2026-07-23 to 2026-07-24.", "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24" }, { "detail": "Period advanced from 2026-07-23 to 2026-07-24.", "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24" }, { "detail": "Period advanced from 2026-07-23 to 2026-07-24.", "metric_id": "blended_live_cash", "revision_status": "NEW_PERIOD", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "tuesday_cutout_average_change_pct", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-21" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-04-01" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "intended_heifer_replacements", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-01-01" } ], "schema_version": "1.0.0", "semantic_fingerprint": "f77dc79a0071659e90759f6cd6004af444169df213737f9fb0622cc5acf51890", "separation_contract": { "auto_promotion_path": false, "calls_decision_components": false, "official_decision_effect": "NONE", "radar_write_root": "/opt/alpha_structural_radar", "reads_decision_outputs": false, "source_root_read_only": "/opt/alpha_current", "wow_command_effect": "NONE", "write_allowlist": [ "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs/structural_radar_status.json", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs/structural_radar_history.json", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/data/structural_radar/vintages.jsonl", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/state/structural_radar.lock" ], "writes_decision_outputs": false }, "source_ledger": [ { "error": null, "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-24", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "fb8c9b3865ec84d96d7578564c31d8009d6c0ff128a763fd05b001f2ef71987b", "source_id": "USDA_NASS_COF", "source_module": "cattle_on_feed", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/cattle_on_feed_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-05", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "735f8bd607703e8d35a6166d8315b651fff26bfa219b49925b6afb7f0496279f", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_TRADE", "source_module": "import_exports", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/import_exports_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "business_release_lag": 0, "calendar_age_days": 0, "expected_report_date": "2026-07-24", "holiday_calendar_note": "Weekday-aware; USDA holiday exceptions may produce WATCH until the next release.", "reason": "Latest expected weekday USDA CEI report is present.", "release_cutoff_ct": "15:45", "report_date": "2026-07-24", "state": "PASS", "status": "PASS", "weekend_aware": true }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-24 after 15:30 CT", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "e683553bfe9855a78d4670c7e81fd161507b29ff8ee3a693b5831882624e6280", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_CEI", "source_module": "ALPHA_PACKER_ECONOMICS_V1", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/packer_economics_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-24", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "66f806bde65f45c3f277d28dfa9076bef1fc5f412204655db9cdfceebfb836ed", "source_id": "USDA_APHIS", "source_module": "animal_health", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/animal_health_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "pass_max_days": 2, "state": "PASS", "watch_max_days": 5 }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-24 daily publication", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "a3932e09b806de2b505871ebab6edbd669fe3d9cca1c08d3d060bc108b010eff", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_CASH", "source_module": "cash_cattle", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/cash_cattle_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "expected_latest_tuesday": "2026-07-21", "last_refresh_time_ct": "2026-07-22T14:20:16.416347-05:00", "latest_report_date": "2026-07-21", "reason": "Canonical Tuesday afternoon LM_XB403 history is current and complete.", "state": "PASS", "status_error": null, "status_report_date": "2026-07-21", "status_source_fingerprint": "e6bdbe15f174d0f6951242a4ce2db7c4bdb48a31f51f50442c7464b635d9a8de", "status_source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/boxed_beef/boxed_beef_tuesday_history_status.json" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-21", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "121b8a77d62ff30b5f1afd71ffe2611cc9375d4ecb3ae97aa333016d12fc05cf", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_BOXED_TUESDAY", "source_module": "boxed_beef_tuesday_history", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/boxed_beef/boxed_beef_tuesday_history.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-24T21:30:01", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-17", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "269dd6ec25362ef3b2be5cc02315ba4e0cb376ac16c8ce3c195acddff9051286", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT", "source_module": "weekly_kill_weights", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/weekly_kill_weights.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "cadence": "Quarterly USDA ERS feeder supply", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-04-01", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "32d71256ffb42497325ea439db5ed6a00752be99019c9ab73562950ad87f581b", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_FEEDER_SUPPLY", "source_module": "ers_feeder_supply", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/ers_livestock_domestic_data/livestock-data-machine-readable-files/FeederCattleSuppliesOutsideFeedlots.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "DERIVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "cadence": "Annual USDA ERS herd replacement", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-01-01", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "281e3d55e23156459116f1b342105d36eb78c6d3295597ee52f60c846528960d", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_HERD_REPLACEMENT", "source_module": "ers_heifer_replacements", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/ers_livestock_domestic_data/livestock-data-machine-readable-files/heifersenteringherd.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" } ], "status": "PASS", "structural_futures_v2": { "cohort_timing_bridge": { "assumptions": { "contract_mapping": "Each possible market-ready day maps to the nearest still-unexpired Feb/Apr/Jun/Aug/Oct/Dec Live Cattle contract midpoint. Expiry uses the last weekday as an approximation and does not encode exchange holidays.", "days_on_feed": { "1000_lbs_and_greater": [ 50, 110 ], "600_699_lbs": [ 170, 230 ], "700_799_lbs": [ 140, 200 ], "800_899_lbs": [ 110, 170 ], "900_999_lbs": [ 80, 140 ], "less_than_600_lbs": [ 190, 250 ] }, "exposure_weighting": "Placement day and days-on-feed are modeled as independent discrete uniform assumptions, then convolved. These are scenario weights, not empirical probabilities.", "interpretation": "Head-equivalent exposure is a timing bridge, not deliverable supply, open interest, fair value, or a price forecast.", "placement_date_uncertainty": "Earliest uses activity-month start; latest uses activity-month end." }, "buckets": [ { "bucket_id": "less_than_600_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 53278.7, "delta_head_equivalent": 819.7, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 52459.0, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.163934 }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 263729.5, "delta_head_equivalent": 4057.4, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 259672.1, "symbol": "LEG7", "window_day_share": 0.811475 }, { "contract_month": "2027-04", "current_head_equivalent": 7991.8, "delta_head_equivalent": 123.0, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 7868.9, "symbol": "LEJ7", "window_day_share": 0.02459 } ], "current_head": 325000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 250, "minimum": 190 }, "delta_head": 5000, "delta_pct": 1.562, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-12-08", "latest": "2027-03-07" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-12-26", "p50": "2027-01-21", "p90": "2027-02-17", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 320000 }, { "bucket_id": "600_699_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 108811.5, "delta_head_equivalent": -4836.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 113647.5, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.483607 }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 116188.5, "delta_head_equivalent": -5163.9, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 121352.5, "symbol": "LEG7", "window_day_share": 0.516393 } ], "current_head": 225000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 230, "minimum": 170 }, "delta_head": -10000, "delta_pct": -4.255, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-11-18", "latest": "2027-02-15" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-12-06", "p50": "2027-01-01", "p90": "2027-01-28", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 235000 }, { "bucket_id": "700_799_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 12786.9, "delta_head_equivalent": -639.3, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 13426.2, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.042623 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 264918.0, "delta_head_equivalent": -13245.9, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 278163.9, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.88306 }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 22295.1, "delta_head_equivalent": -1114.8, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 23409.8, "symbol": "LEG7", "window_day_share": 0.074317 } ], "current_head": 300000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 200, "minimum": 140 }, "delta_head": -15000, "delta_pct": -4.762, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-10-19", "latest": "2027-01-16" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-11-06", "p50": "2026-12-02", "p90": "2026-12-29", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 315000 }, { "bucket_id": "800_899_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 139303.3, "delta_head_equivalent": -7663.9, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 146967.2, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.45082 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 169696.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -9336.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 179032.8, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.54918 } ], "current_head": 309000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 170, "minimum": 110 }, "delta_head": -17000, "delta_pct": -5.215, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-09-19", "latest": "2026-12-17" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-10-07", "p50": "2026-11-02", "p90": "2026-11-29", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 326000 }, { "bucket_id": "900_999_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 6819.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -213.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 7032.8, "symbol": "LEQ6", "window_day_share": 0.042623 }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 138229.5, "delta_head_equivalent": -4319.7, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 142549.2, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.863934 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 14950.8, "delta_head_equivalent": -467.2, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 15418.0, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.093443 } ], "current_head": 160000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 140, "minimum": 80 }, "delta_head": -5000, "delta_pct": -3.03, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-08-20", "latest": "2026-11-17" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-09-07", "p50": "2026-10-03", "p90": "2026-10-30", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 165000 }, { "bucket_id": "1000_lbs_and_greater", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 36065.6, "delta_head_equivalent": 0.0, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 36065.6, "symbol": "LEQ6", "window_day_share": 0.45082 }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 43934.4, "delta_head_equivalent": 0.0, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 43934.4, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.54918 } ], "current_head": 80000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 110, "minimum": 50 }, "delta_head": 0, "delta_pct": 0.0, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-07-21", "latest": "2026-10-18" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-08-08", "p50": "2026-09-03", "p90": "2026-09-30", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 80000 } ], "comparison": "SAME_ACTIVITY_MONTH_AS_RELEASED_YEAR_OVER_YEAR", "contracts": [ { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 42885.2, "delta_head_equivalent": -213.1, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 43098.4, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEQ6" }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 334254.1, "delta_head_equivalent": -12623.0, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 346877.0, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEV6" }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 611655.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -27065.6, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 638721.3, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEZ6" }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 402213.1, "delta_head_equivalent": -2221.3, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 404434.4, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEG7" }, { "contract_month": "2027-04", "current_head_equivalent": 7991.8, "delta_head_equivalent": 123.0, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 7868.9, "structural_read": "MORE_HEAD_EXPOSED_PRESSURE", "symbol": "LEJ7" } ], "latest_activity_month": "2026-06-01", "latest_release_date": "2026-07-24", "prior_year_activity_month": "2025-06-01", "prior_year_release_date": "2025-07-25", "reconciliations": [ { "actual": 1399000.0, "check_id": "latest_bucket_sum_to_placements", "expected": 1399000.0, "passed": true, "residual_head": 0.0, "tolerance_head": 1000.0 }, { "actual": 1441000.0, "check_id": "prior_bucket_sum_to_placements", "expected": 1441000.0, "passed": true, "residual_head": 0.0, "tolerance_head": 1000.0 }, { "actual": -42000.0, "check_id": "contract_exposure_delta_to_bucket_delta", "expected": -42000.0, "passed": true, "residual_head": 0.0, "tolerance_head": 1.0 } ], "status": "PASS" }, "contract_response_models": { "continuous_or_stitched_prices_used": false, "contract_estimates": [ { "cohort_timing_exposure": { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 334254.1, "delta_head_equivalent": -12623.0, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 346877.0, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEV6" }, "contract_id": "LE-2026-10", "horizons": [ { "conditional_fair_value": 223.425, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 220.725, 225.6 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d1", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.384167, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -0.825625, 1.358383 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 223.45, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 218.1, 228.25 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d5", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.391751, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -2.016041, 2.55228 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 223.3, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 214.75, 236.125 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d20", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.320481, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -3.521256, 6.092773 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 224.35, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 215.35, 239.875 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d40", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.802892, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -3.24287, 7.775708 ], "status": "PASS" } ], "role": "near", "symbol": "LEV6" }, { "cohort_timing_exposure": { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 611655.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -27065.6, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 638721.3, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEZ6" }, "contract_id": "LE-2026-12", "horizons": [ { "conditional_fair_value": 223.15, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 220.725, 224.85 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d1", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.389117, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -0.699611, 1.153407 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 223.175, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 218.0, 227.525 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d5", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.402467, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.92523, 2.359281 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 223.175, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 213.475, 235.075 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d20", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.409627, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -3.959491, 5.755716 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 223.7, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 213.95, 238.9 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d40", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.644537, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -3.745429, 7.479223 ], "status": "PASS" } ], "role": "mid", "symbol": "LEZ6" }, { "cohort_timing_exposure": { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 402213.1, "delta_head_equivalent": -2221.3, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 404434.4, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEG7" }, "contract_id": "LE-2027-02", "horizons": [ { "conditional_fair_value": 224.175, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 222.2, 225.575 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d1", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.389248, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -0.492242, 1.019313 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 224.35, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 219.225, 228.925 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d5", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.473488, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.821666, 2.521559 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 224.325, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 217.9, 236.25 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d20", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.455863, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -2.421714, 5.803479 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 225.25, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 212.2, 238.95 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d40", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.872795, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -4.973402, 7.007314 ], "status": "PASS" } ], "role": "deferred", "symbol": "LEG7" } ], "contract_selection": "Highest-volume unexpired named fixed contract is near; the next two canonical year-month expiries are mid and deferred.", "curve_twist_model_active": false, "curve_twist_pricing_authority": "NONE", "fair_value_limitation": "Conditional report-response price is not an all-factor intrinsic fair value and cannot be promoted by this module.", "fixed_contract_only": true, "implementation_sha256": "122b355739d8f28522367bcb9b4097a897fa382cc2fbe049c89d448fb81c0d56", "known_limitations": [ "Historical price references are Databento RTH last-trade closes, not official CME settlements.", "Daily source rows do not retain the final bar timestamp; pre-release ordering relies on the scheduled 13:05 CT RTH close preceding the recorded 14:00 CT COF release.", "No licensed analyst-consensus surprise series is available; report features are printed YoY levels, not consensus surprises.", "Role, horizon, and regime heterogeneity remain research limitations; all operational gates stay closed." ], "latest_release_date": "2026-07-24", "model_version": "cof-fixed-contract-ridge-v2.1.0", "models": [ { "all_training_labels_available_before_prediction": true, "conditional_fair_value": 223.425, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 220.725, 225.6 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "fair_value_definition": "Same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade 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"An external protected/WORM ledger anchor exists", "max_points": 1.0, "passed": false, "points": 0 }, { "criterion": "Forecast IDs are deterministic and issuance is deduplicated", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Open and matured-unresolved outcomes remain explicit and unscored", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "At least 36 independent forward report releases and 10 unique releases per claimed horizon are resolved", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": false, "points": 0 } ], "label": "Immutable forward forecast accountability", "limitation": "0 correlated forecast cells across 0 independent report releases are resolved. Same-report roles, horizons, and revisions do not inflate the independent-release threshold. The sibling checkpoint is best-effort and no external WORM anchor exists; accountability is partial and predictive profitability is not graded.", "status": "PARTIAL", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "OPERATIONAL_ISOLATION", "earned": 15.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Base radar has no decision or WOW effect", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Registry writes only below the sibling radar root and the required runtime permission probe passes", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "No live-trade use, auto-promotion, or execution points", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Operational and WOW Command isolation", "status": "PASS", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "TRANSPARENCY", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Complete model card states purpose, target, data, leakage controls, limitations, and governance", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Scorecard names a frozen baseline and baseline-relative primary metric", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Model-card and baseline transparency", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 } ], "eligibility": { "operational_promotion_eligible": false, "predictive_profitability_grade_eligible": false, "status": "ELIGIBLE_SYSTEM_QUALITY_ONLY", "system_quality_grade_eligible": true }, "explicit_exclusions": [ "predictive profitability", "tradable edge", "live execution quality", "risk-adjusted returns" ], "max_points": 0, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "profitability_claim": false, "rubric_id": "ALPHA_SYSTEM_QUALITY_NON_PROFITABILITY_V1", "schema_version": "alpha.system_quality_audit.v1", "scope": "SYSTEM_DESIGN_DATA_INTEGRITY_GOVERNANCE_AND_ACCOUNTABILITY", "score": { "earned": 91.0, "grade": "A-", "maximum": 100.0, "normalized_10": 9.1 }, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "theses": [ { "active_alert_ids": [ "weight_offsets_head_decline", "trade_cushions_domestic_availability" ], "confirmation": "Later marketings and slaughter tighten after placement cohorts roll forward while meat cushions fade.", "contradictions": [ "cof_on_feed_head", "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs" ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "cof_placements_head", "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "beef_exports_ytd_cwe" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "current through 18 months", "invalidation": "Placements recover or meat availability remains ample enough to prevent the expected tightening.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "PRIMARY_WORKING_HYPOTHESIS", "state": "CURRENT_AVAILABILITY_CUSHIONED", "thesis_id": "later_head_tightness_near_meat_cushion", "title": "Later fed-cattle tightness, buffered near-term beef availability" }, { "confirmation": "Weights, imports, dairy-beef supply, or weak exports continue replacing domestic fed-cattle tonnage.", "contradictions": [ "cof_placements_head", "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots" ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "current through 12 months", "invalidation": "Weights normalize and trade cushions reverse before placements recover.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "COMPETING_HYPOTHESIS", "thesis_id": "meat_availability_outlasts_head_shortage", "title": "Beef availability stays adequate longer than cattle head counts imply" }, { "confirmation": "Verified capacity exits or sustained shift reductions tighten the hook-to-cattle balance.", "contradictions": [ "No verified plant closure is inferred from margin data alone." ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "cof_marketings_head", "weekly_fi_slaughter_head" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "3-24 months", "invalidation": "Margins recover and observed capacity remains stable.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "COMPETING_HYPOTHESIS", "thesis_id": "capacity_rationalization_changes_leverage", "title": "Processing-capacity rationalization changes packer and feedyard leverage" } ], "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "validation": { "all_units_typed": true, "decision_effect": "NONE", "failed_reconciliations": [], "futures_pricing_model_active": false, "maximum_execution_points": 0, "missing_core_metrics": [], "missing_inputs": [], "numeric_forecast_policy": "No forward numeric value is emitted until an independently validated model supplies it.", "point_in_time_only": true, "promotion_gate_passed": false, "semantic_vintage_chain_validation": "PASS_WITH_LEGACY_PREFIX", "semantic_vintage_checkpoint_prior_state": "PASS", "semantic_vintage_checkpoint_validation": "PASS", "semantic_vintage_external_anchor_present": false, "semantic_vintage_parse_strict": true, "semantic_vintages": true, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "vintage_record_hash": "ce61517ef24727ae96aedc55a9fc31516164d9da0d638df8e3dfb6303fb76747", "warnings": [] }, { "balance_sheet": { "as_of": "2026-07-24", "periods": [ { "period": "Current feedlot inventory", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current fed-cattle inventory.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Cattle on feed", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_on_feed_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "feedlot_inventory", "unit": "head", "value": 11370000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24", "yoy_pct": 2.0 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Incoming placement pipeline", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Incoming fed-cattle pipeline.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Monthly placements", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_placements_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "incoming_pipeline", "unit": "head", "value": 1399000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24", "yoy_pct": -3.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements under 600 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_less_than_600_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 325000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 600-699 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_600_699_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 225000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 700-799 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_700_799_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 300000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 800-899 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_800_899_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 309000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 900-999 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_900_999_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 160000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 1,000+ lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_1000_lbs_and_greater", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 80000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "USDA ERS-derived feeder-cattle reservoir outside feedlots; lower inventory can constrain future placements.", "freshness": { "cadence": "Quarterly USDA ERS feeder supply", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Feeder cattle outside feedlots", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_FEEDER_SUPPLY" ], "stage": "feeder_supply", "unit": "thousand_head", "value": 18776.97, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-04-01", "yoy_pct": 2.2631 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Fed-cattle outflow and meat production", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Fed-cattle outflow toward slaughter.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Monthly marketings", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_marketings_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "fed_outflow", "unit": "head", "value": 1661000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24", "yoy_pct": -3.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Non-marketing feedlot disappearance.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Other disappearance", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_other_disappearance_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "fed_outflow", "unit": "head", "value": 50000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24", "yoy_pct": -6.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Observed weekly cattle head throughput.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-24T22:30:14", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Weekly federally inspected slaughter", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "slaughter", "unit": "head", "value": 525000.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "yoy_pct": -7.4074 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Pounds produced per slaughtered animal.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-24T22:30:14", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Average dressed weight", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "yield", "unit": "lb_per_head", "value": 887.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "yoy_pct": 2.662 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Observed weekly beef output combines head throughput and carcass yield.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-24T22:30:14", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Weekly beef production", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "meat_output", "unit": "million_lb", "value": 464.5, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "yoy_pct": -5.0491 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Counterfactual pounds effect holding year-ago dressed weight constant.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-24T22:30:14", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Head-count contribution to weekly production change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_head_count_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "production_bridge", "unit": "million_lb", "value": -36.288, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Incremental pounds attributable to the dressed-weight change at current slaughter.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-24T22:30:14", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Dressed-weight contribution to weekly production change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "production_bridge", "unit": "million_lb", "value": 12.075, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "yoy_pct": null } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Trade and domestic availability", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Imported beef adds to domestic carcass-weight-equivalent availability.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date beef imports", "metadata": { "ytd_comparable": true, "ytd_through_month": 5 }, "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 2754566570.58, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": 9.9 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Exported beef removes product from domestic availability while reflecting foreign demand.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date beef exports", "metadata": { "ytd_comparable": true, "ytd_through_month": 5 }, "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 978518541.27, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": -17.2 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Imports less exports; this is a product-availability measure, not a fed-cattle-equivalent count.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date net beef imports", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 1776048029.31, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": -2.3381, "economic_read": "Weekly wholesale movement; descriptive context only because its futures validation gate has not passed.", "freshness": { "expected_latest_tuesday": "2026-07-21", "last_refresh_time_ct": "2026-07-22T14:20:16.416347-05:00", "latest_report_date": "2026-07-21", "reason": "Canonical Tuesday afternoon LM_XB403 history is current and complete.", "state": "PASS", "status_error": null, "status_report_date": "2026-07-21", "status_source_fingerprint": "e6bdbe15f174d0f6951242a4ce2db7c4bdb48a31f51f50442c7464b635d9a8de", "status_source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/boxed_beef/boxed_beef_tuesday_history_status.json" }, "label": "Tuesday Choice/Select average weekly change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "tuesday_cutout_average_change_pct", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_BOXED_TUESDAY" ], "stage": "wholesale_demand", "unit": "percent", "value": -2.3381, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-21", "yoy_pct": null } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Capacity, cash, herd, and policy context", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Standardized box-minus-live operating-spread proxy; not company net income and not a futures timing signal.", "freshness": { "business_release_lag": 0, "calendar_age_days": 0, "expected_report_date": "2026-07-24", "holiday_calendar_note": "Weekday-aware; USDA holiday exceptions may produce WATCH until the next release.", "reason": "Latest expected weekday USDA CEI report is present.", "release_cutoff_ct": "15:45", "report_date": "2026-07-24", "state": "PASS", "status": "PASS", "weekend_aware": true }, "label": "USDA CEI gross packer spread", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_CEI" ], "stage": "processing_economics", "unit": "usd_per_cwt_carcass", "value": 3.6563, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current operating status constrains or restores feeder-cattle inflow; duration and price impact are not assumed.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Southern livestock port status", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_APHIS" ], "stage": "biological_policy", "unit": "status", "value": "CLOSED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current cash transmission and feedyard/packer leverage context.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "pass_max_days": 2, "state": "PASS", "watch_max_days": 5 }, "label": "Blended live cash cattle", "metadata": { "change_vs_last_week_usd_per_cwt": -8.21 }, "metric_id": "blended_live_cash", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_CASH" ], "stage": "cash_transmission", "unit": "usd_per_cwt_live", "value": 230.59, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Replacement intentions inform herd rebuilding capacity; they do not guarantee retained females or calf-crop growth.", "freshness": { "cadence": "Annual USDA ERS herd replacement", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Intended heifer replacements", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "intended_heifer_replacements", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_HERD_REPLACEMENT" ], "stage": "breeding_herd", "unit": "thousand_head", "value": 8618.8, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-01-01", "yoy_pct": 0.361 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" } ], "reconciliations": [ { "actual": 1399000.0, "check_id": "cof_placement_buckets", "expected": 1399000.0, "name": "Placement weight buckets sum to placements", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 1000.0, "unit": "head" }, { "actual": 11370000.0, "check_id": "cof_head_flow", "expected": 11370000.0, "name": "Opening inventory plus placements less outflows equals closing inventory", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 1000.0, "unit": "head" }, { "actual": 464.5, "check_id": "weekly_production_bridge", "expected": 464.98699999999997, "name": "Year-ago production plus head effect plus weight effect reconciles to current production", "passed": true, "residual": -0.487, "tolerance": 2.3225000000000002, "unit": "million_lb" }, { "actual": 1776048029.31, "check_id": "net_trade_identity", "expected": 1776048029.31, "name": "Imports less exports equals net imports", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 0.01, "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent" } ], "status": "RECONCILED", "summary": { "beef_supply_change_pct": -5.0491, "dressed_weight_yoy_pct": 2.662, "exports_ytd_change_pct": -17.2, "imports_ytd_change_pct": 9.9, "observation_count": 24, "reconciliation_count": 4, "reconciliation_pass_count": 4, "slaughter_yoy_pct": -7.4074, "source_count": 9, "source_ledger_row_count": 9, "status": "RECONCILED", "weight_offset_of_head_decline_pct": 33.28 }, "unit_policy": "No cattle-head-to-beef-pound conversion is made without an exposed observed weight or typed derivation." }, "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "change_alerts": [ { "alert_id": "weight_offsets_head_decline", "counter_evidence": "Reported weekly beef production remains -5.0% YoY.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "MEAT_CUSHION", "horizon": "current to 3 months", "invalidation": "Dressed weights stop offsetting lower head throughput.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "ACTIVE", "summary": "Heavier carcasses are replacing part of the beef tonnage lost to lower slaughter.", "triggers": [ { "label": "Slaughter -7.4% YoY", "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head" }, { "label": "Dressed weight +2.7% YoY", "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs" } ] }, { "alert_id": "trade_cushions_domestic_availability", "counter_evidence": "Product mix and imported lean are not fully interchangeable with Choice fed-beef cuts.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "DOMESTIC_AVAILABILITY_CUSHION", "horizon": "current to 6 months", "invalidation": "Imports reverse lower and exports recover enough to remove the net availability cushion.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "ACTIVE", "summary": "Trade flows are cushioning domestic beef availability despite tighter cattle head counts.", "triggers": [ { "label": "YTD imports +9.9%", "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe" }, { "label": "YTD exports -17.2%", "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe" } ] } ], "composer_contract": { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "composer_version": "alpha.structural_radar.composer.v2.0.0", "decision_effect": "NONE", "max_points": 0, "mode": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "conditional_contract_estimates": { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "contract_estimates": [ { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 220.725, 225.6 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 223.425, "contract_role": "near", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-07-27T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": "SFR-73692CE048D34EC0D5DE46B0", "horizon": "d1", "issuance_status": "FROZEN_WHILE_OPEN", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "status": "OPEN_OR_NOT_YET_OBSERVABLE", "target_date": null }, 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0.473488, "forecast_id": "SFR-264AB30E7C84E608F46BB3CE", "freeze_fingerprint": "09ec414d85dfafdc8898686420b991870a0e33e867e7b905f1f82c8ea8dc2588", "horizon": "d5", "interval": [ -1.821666, 2.521559 ], "issued_at_ct": "2026-07-24T16:50:11.302156-05:00", "max_points": 0, "model_version": "cof-fixed-contract-ridge-v2.1.0", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "outcome": null, "outcome_status": "OPEN", "predicted_price": 224.35, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2027-02", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "research_only": true, "status": "OPEN", "target_date": "2026-07-31T13:05:00-05:00", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "content_hash": "e2447f9b6517138b2010cae86e9a049e2060bceb8581aa3c70b5b55d85b961f1", "contract": "LEG7", "decision_effect": "NONE", "expected_return_pct": 0.455863, "forecast_id": "SFR-41C785F15CA6EAAD31D75C5E", "freeze_fingerprint": "4012dd686fe6f24461d4819a731c9080b75211a581b0a86999a8259a781060b9", "horizon": "d20", "interval": [ -2.421714, 5.803479 ], "issued_at_ct": "2026-07-24T16:50:11.302156-05:00", "max_points": 0, "model_version": "cof-fixed-contract-ridge-v2.1.0", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "outcome": null, "outcome_status": "OPEN", "predicted_price": 224.325, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2027-02", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "research_only": true, "status": "OPEN", "target_date": "2026-08-21T13:05:00-05:00", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "content_hash": "c18b7e95a31c104f705b6e04d57c0ba7c2f654f8cbff2b34747845eea8330bac", "contract": "LEG7", "decision_effect": "NONE", "expected_return_pct": 0.872795, "forecast_id": "SFR-191BE50CAE29E1DC3589A9C1", "freeze_fingerprint": "e34d1639569bcfecb6be1333be9ce21f7c349bf56b26d7ff0aca0e27224b1a58", "horizon": "d40", "interval": [ -4.973402, 7.007314 ], "issued_at_ct": "2026-07-24T16:50:11.302156-05:00", "max_points": 0, "model_version": "cof-fixed-contract-ridge-v2.1.0", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "outcome": null, "outcome_status": "OPEN", "predicted_price": 225.25, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2027-02", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "research_only": true, "status": "OPEN", "target_date": "2026-09-18T13:05:00-05:00", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" } ], "futures_implications": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESES", "generated_at_ct": "2026-07-25T05:50:11.196615-05:00", "headline": { "confidence": "HIGH", "dominant_stage": "current_inventory_and_pounds", "horizon": "current through 6 months", "state": "CURRENT_AVAILABILITY_CUSHIONED", "text": "Current inventory and meat-availability offsets are more visible than a later cattle shortage.", "what_changed": "No semantic structural change since the prior frozen vintage." }, "history": { "changed_metric_ids": [], "previous_fingerprint": "f77dc79a0071659e90759f6cd6004af444169df213737f9fb0622cc5acf51890", "semantic_changed": true, "vintage_count": 30, "vintage_recorded": true }, "live_trade_status": "DISABLED", "max_points": 0, "mode": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "model_card": { "baseline": "Expanding historical mean inside V2 walk-forward diagnostics; zero-change baseline in the immutable forward registry.", "calibration_policy": "No calibrated claim until at least 36 independent genuinely forward report releases and at least 10 unique releases per claimed horizon; correlated role-by-horizon cells and same-report revisions do not count as independent releases. Current status remains NOT_CALIBRATED.", "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "data_sources": [ "USDA NASS COF as-released event rows", "Databento Live Cattle fixed-contract daily bars" ], "evaluation_metrics": [ "MAE", "baseline-relative MAE skill", "directional accuracy", "prediction correlation", "80% interval coverage" ], "fairness_scope": "Not applicable to people; monitor contract-month and market-regime coverage instead.", "feature_families": [ "USDA COF year-over-year release values", "activity-month seasonality" ], "features": [ "on_feed_yoy_delta_pp", "placements_yoy_delta_pp", "marketings_yoy_delta_pp", "activity_month_season_sin", "activity_month_season_cos" ], "governance": { "auto_promotion_path": false, "decision_effect": "NONE", "max_points": 0, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "horizon_definitions": { "d1": "1 actual later fixed-contract session(s)", "d20": "20 actual later fixed-contract session(s)", "d40": "40 actual later fixed-contract session(s)", "d5": "5 actual later fixed-contract session(s)" }, "horizons": [ "d1", "d5", "d20", "d40" ], "intended_uses": [ "research", "hypothesis tracking", "forward accountability", "contract-window comparison" ], "known_limitations": [ "No contemporaneous consensus-surprise feature", "Conditional report response is not all-factor intrinsic value", "Weekday target scheduling is conservative and is reconciled to actual fixed-contract sessions at resolution", "No demonstrated forward predictive edge yet", "No transaction costs, slippage, liquidity, or executable strategy economics" ], "leakage_controls": [ "As-released report values only", "Latest event excluded from training", "Training labels must complete before prediction", "Forward registry rejects horizons already mature at first issuance" ], "lifecycle_status": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "model_name": "Structural Futures V2 fixed-contract COF response", "model_type": "Expanding-window ridge regression with fixed-contract event responses", "model_version": "cof-fixed-contract-ridge-v2.1.0", "monitoring": { "baseline_relative_scorecard": true, "calibration_minimum_unique_report_releases": 36, "immutable_forecast_book": true, "open_outcomes_retained": true }, "owner": "Alpha Structural Radar research boundary", "prediction_population": "Highest-volume unexpired Live Cattle fixed contract and the next two listed expiries on the release date.", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "prohibited_uses": [ "WOW Command input", "official decision input", "live trading", "position sizing", "intrinsic fair-value claim" ], "promotion_criteria": [ "At least 36 independent genuinely forward report releases", "At least 10 unique report releases per claimed horizon", "Positive baseline-relative MAE skill with stable directional evidence", "Independent governance review; never automatic promotion" ], "promotion_gate_passed": false, "purpose": "Estimate a conditional fixed-contract price response after a Cattle on Feed release.", "reproducibility": "Each issuance freezes the implementation SHA-256, fitted ridge coefficients/normalization/penalty, exact training-row identity hash, event features, source hashes, and model-spec hash.", "schema_version": "alpha.model_card.structural_futures_v2.v1", "status": "RESEARCH_ONLY_UNVALIDATED", "target": "Nth actual later RTH last-trade close versus same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close before the after-close COF release; these are not official CME settlements.", "target_definition": "Nth actual later RTH last-trade close versus same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close before the after-close COF release; these are not official CME settlements.", "training": { "continuous_or_stitched_prices_used": false, "fixed_contract_only": true, "method": "Ridge regression fit only to fully labeled events available before each prediction timestamp.", "minimum_train_events": 24, "walk_forward_evaluation": true }, "training_cutoff": "Strictly before each prediction release; every included label must also have completed before that release.", "uncertainty": "Residual 10th/90th-percentile response interval where enough walk-forward residuals exist.", "validation_method": "Expanding-window point-in-time walk-forward", "validation_protocol": "Expanding-window, point-in-time walk-forward evaluation against an expanding-mean diagnostic baseline." }, "module": "ALPHA_STRUCTURAL_RADAR_V1", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "previous_vintage_record_hash": "ce61517ef24727ae96aedc55a9fc31516164d9da0d638df8e3dfb6303fb76747", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "revision_ledger": [ { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_on_feed_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_placements_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_marketings_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_other_disappearance_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_less_than_600_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_600_699_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_700_799_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_800_899_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_900_999_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_1000_lbs_and_greater", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_head_count_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "blended_live_cash", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "tuesday_cutout_average_change_pct", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-21" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-04-01" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "intended_heifer_replacements", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-01-01" } ], "schema_version": "1.0.0", "semantic_fingerprint": "a437c00d5a0e502bcbe194d48892ec3a376f2ed49a2695d82340ce193947b9b1", "separation_contract": { "auto_promotion_path": false, "calls_decision_components": false, "official_decision_effect": "NONE", "radar_write_root": "/opt/alpha_structural_radar", "reads_decision_outputs": false, "source_root_read_only": "/opt/alpha_current", "wow_command_effect": "NONE", "write_allowlist": [ "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs/structural_radar_status.json", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs/structural_radar_history.json", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/data/structural_radar/vintages.jsonl", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/state/structural_radar.lock" ], "writes_decision_outputs": false }, "source_ledger": [ { "error": null, "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-24", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "410c12b02e7a2c76ca172c4296948a74cf5d2d36e42542451a1e1a26a26d80d9", "source_id": "USDA_NASS_COF", "source_module": "cattle_on_feed", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/cattle_on_feed_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-05", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "169306b70ffecfc58bc87caf7462090482d364dc109a497d05409d29d67cd431", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_TRADE", "source_module": "import_exports", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/import_exports_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "business_release_lag": 0, "calendar_age_days": 0, "expected_report_date": "2026-07-24", "holiday_calendar_note": "Weekday-aware; USDA holiday exceptions may produce WATCH until the next release.", "reason": "Latest expected weekday USDA CEI report is present.", "release_cutoff_ct": "15:45", "report_date": "2026-07-24", "state": "PASS", "status": "PASS", "weekend_aware": true }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-24 after 15:30 CT", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "af0228bc9b2962c3091cc39208a52279ef3afe6eac34cd932f816227f918b100", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_CEI", "source_module": "ALPHA_PACKER_ECONOMICS_V1", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/packer_economics_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-24", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "c9c03d7b55ed3dd47df2fe6a2571724d6373c9041c2476de78a7235e6a67587e", "source_id": "USDA_APHIS", "source_module": "animal_health", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/animal_health_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "pass_max_days": 2, "state": "PASS", "watch_max_days": 5 }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-24 daily publication", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "405b4dd97b45b6f5b74db3686a4fbc34514d0589dcdcd267511a43a6aff1df7e", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_CASH", "source_module": "cash_cattle", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/cash_cattle_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "expected_latest_tuesday": "2026-07-21", "last_refresh_time_ct": "2026-07-22T14:20:16.416347-05:00", "latest_report_date": "2026-07-21", "reason": "Canonical Tuesday afternoon LM_XB403 history is current and complete.", "state": "PASS", "status_error": null, "status_report_date": "2026-07-21", "status_source_fingerprint": "e6bdbe15f174d0f6951242a4ce2db7c4bdb48a31f51f50442c7464b635d9a8de", "status_source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/boxed_beef/boxed_beef_tuesday_history_status.json" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-21", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "121b8a77d62ff30b5f1afd71ffe2611cc9375d4ecb3ae97aa333016d12fc05cf", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_BOXED_TUESDAY", "source_module": "boxed_beef_tuesday_history", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/boxed_beef/boxed_beef_tuesday_history.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-24T22:30:14", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-17", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "93381305433bd086fb7069151882212b0799e07d9e6ab054ec4c4fe5bc65a99f", "source_id": "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT", "source_module": "weekly_kill_weights", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/weekly_kill_weights.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "cadence": "Quarterly USDA ERS feeder supply", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-04-01", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "32d71256ffb42497325ea439db5ed6a00752be99019c9ab73562950ad87f581b", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_FEEDER_SUPPLY", "source_module": "ers_feeder_supply", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/ers_livestock_domestic_data/livestock-data-machine-readable-files/FeederCattleSuppliesOutsideFeedlots.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "DERIVED" }, { "error": null, "freshness": { "cadence": "Annual USDA ERS herd replacement", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-01-01", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "281e3d55e23156459116f1b342105d36eb78c6d3295597ee52f60c846528960d", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_HERD_REPLACEMENT", "source_module": "ers_heifer_replacements", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/ers_livestock_domestic_data/livestock-data-machine-readable-files/heifersenteringherd.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" } ], "status": "PASS", "structural_futures_v2": { "cohort_timing_bridge": { "assumptions": { "contract_mapping": "Each possible market-ready day maps to the nearest still-unexpired Feb/Apr/Jun/Aug/Oct/Dec Live Cattle contract midpoint. Expiry uses the last weekday as an approximation and does not encode exchange holidays.", "days_on_feed": { "1000_lbs_and_greater": [ 50, 110 ], "600_699_lbs": [ 170, 230 ], "700_799_lbs": [ 140, 200 ], "800_899_lbs": [ 110, 170 ], "900_999_lbs": [ 80, 140 ], "less_than_600_lbs": [ 190, 250 ] }, "exposure_weighting": "Placement day and days-on-feed are modeled as independent discrete uniform assumptions, then convolved. These are scenario weights, not empirical probabilities.", "interpretation": "Head-equivalent exposure is a timing bridge, not deliverable supply, open interest, fair value, or a price forecast.", "placement_date_uncertainty": "Earliest uses activity-month start; latest uses activity-month end." }, "buckets": [ { "bucket_id": "less_than_600_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 53278.7, "delta_head_equivalent": 819.7, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 52459.0, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.163934 }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 263729.5, "delta_head_equivalent": 4057.4, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 259672.1, "symbol": "LEG7", "window_day_share": 0.811475 }, { "contract_month": "2027-04", "current_head_equivalent": 7991.8, "delta_head_equivalent": 123.0, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 7868.9, "symbol": "LEJ7", "window_day_share": 0.02459 } ], "current_head": 325000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 250, "minimum": 190 }, "delta_head": 5000, "delta_pct": 1.562, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-12-08", "latest": "2027-03-07" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-12-26", "p50": "2027-01-21", "p90": "2027-02-17", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 320000 }, { "bucket_id": "600_699_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 108811.5, "delta_head_equivalent": -4836.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 113647.5, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.483607 }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 116188.5, "delta_head_equivalent": -5163.9, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 121352.5, "symbol": "LEG7", "window_day_share": 0.516393 } ], "current_head": 225000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 230, "minimum": 170 }, "delta_head": -10000, "delta_pct": -4.255, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-11-18", "latest": "2027-02-15" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-12-06", "p50": "2027-01-01", "p90": "2027-01-28", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 235000 }, { "bucket_id": "700_799_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 12786.9, "delta_head_equivalent": -639.3, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 13426.2, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.042623 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 264918.0, "delta_head_equivalent": -13245.9, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 278163.9, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.88306 }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 22295.1, "delta_head_equivalent": -1114.8, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 23409.8, "symbol": "LEG7", "window_day_share": 0.074317 } ], "current_head": 300000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 200, "minimum": 140 }, "delta_head": -15000, "delta_pct": -4.762, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-10-19", "latest": "2027-01-16" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-11-06", "p50": "2026-12-02", "p90": "2026-12-29", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 315000 }, { "bucket_id": "800_899_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 139303.3, "delta_head_equivalent": -7663.9, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 146967.2, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.45082 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 169696.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -9336.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 179032.8, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.54918 } ], "current_head": 309000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 170, "minimum": 110 }, "delta_head": -17000, "delta_pct": -5.215, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-09-19", "latest": "2026-12-17" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-10-07", "p50": "2026-11-02", "p90": "2026-11-29", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 326000 }, { "bucket_id": "900_999_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 6819.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -213.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 7032.8, "symbol": "LEQ6", "window_day_share": 0.042623 }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 138229.5, "delta_head_equivalent": -4319.7, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 142549.2, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.863934 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 14950.8, "delta_head_equivalent": -467.2, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 15418.0, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.093443 } ], "current_head": 160000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 140, "minimum": 80 }, "delta_head": -5000, "delta_pct": -3.03, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-08-20", "latest": "2026-11-17" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-09-07", "p50": "2026-10-03", "p90": "2026-10-30", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 165000 }, { "bucket_id": "1000_lbs_and_greater", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 36065.6, "delta_head_equivalent": 0.0, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 36065.6, "symbol": "LEQ6", "window_day_share": 0.45082 }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 43934.4, "delta_head_equivalent": 0.0, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 43934.4, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.54918 } ], "current_head": 80000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 110, "minimum": 50 }, "delta_head": 0, "delta_pct": 0.0, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-07-21", "latest": "2026-10-18" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-08-08", "p50": "2026-09-03", "p90": "2026-09-30", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 80000 } ], "comparison": "SAME_ACTIVITY_MONTH_AS_RELEASED_YEAR_OVER_YEAR", "contracts": [ { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 42885.2, "delta_head_equivalent": -213.1, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 43098.4, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEQ6" }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 334254.1, "delta_head_equivalent": -12623.0, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 346877.0, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEV6" }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 611655.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -27065.6, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 638721.3, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEZ6" }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 402213.1, "delta_head_equivalent": -2221.3, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 404434.4, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEG7" }, { "contract_month": "2027-04", "current_head_equivalent": 7991.8, "delta_head_equivalent": 123.0, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 7868.9, "structural_read": "MORE_HEAD_EXPOSED_PRESSURE", "symbol": "LEJ7" } ], "latest_activity_month": "2026-06-01", "latest_release_date": "2026-07-24", "prior_year_activity_month": "2025-06-01", "prior_year_release_date": "2025-07-25", "reconciliations": [ { "actual": 1399000.0, "check_id": "latest_bucket_sum_to_placements", "expected": 1399000.0, "passed": true, "residual_head": 0.0, "tolerance_head": 1000.0 }, { "actual": 1441000.0, "check_id": "prior_bucket_sum_to_placements", "expected": 1441000.0, "passed": true, "residual_head": 0.0, "tolerance_head": 1000.0 }, { "actual": -42000.0, "check_id": "contract_exposure_delta_to_bucket_delta", "expected": -42000.0, "passed": true, "residual_head": 0.0, "tolerance_head": 1.0 } ], "status": "PASS" }, "contract_response_models": { "continuous_or_stitched_prices_used": false, "contract_estimates": [ { "cohort_timing_exposure": { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 334254.1, "delta_head_equivalent": -12623.0, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 346877.0, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEV6" }, "contract_id": "LE-2026-10", "horizons": [ { "conditional_fair_value": 223.425, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 220.725, 225.6 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d1", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.384167, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -0.825625, 1.358383 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 223.45, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 218.1, 228.25 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d5", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.391751, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -2.016041, 2.55228 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 223.3, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 214.75, 236.125 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d20", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.320481, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -3.521256, 6.092773 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 224.35, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 215.35, 239.875 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d40", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.802892, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -3.24287, 7.775708 ], "status": "PASS" } ], "role": "near", "symbol": "LEV6" }, { "cohort_timing_exposure": { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 611655.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -27065.6, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 638721.3, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEZ6" }, "contract_id": "LE-2026-12", "horizons": [ { "conditional_fair_value": 223.15, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 220.725, 224.85 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d1", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.389117, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -0.699611, 1.153407 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 223.175, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 218.0, 227.525 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d5", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.402467, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.92523, 2.359281 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 223.175, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 213.475, 235.075 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d20", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.409627, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -3.959491, 5.755716 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 223.7, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 213.95, 238.9 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d40", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.644537, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -3.745429, 7.479223 ], "status": "PASS" } ], "role": "mid", "symbol": "LEZ6" }, { "cohort_timing_exposure": { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 402213.1, "delta_head_equivalent": -2221.3, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 404434.4, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEG7" }, "contract_id": "LE-2027-02", "horizons": [ { "conditional_fair_value": 224.175, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 222.2, 225.575 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d1", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.389248, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, 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Later-date corrections are excluded from the report-response panel so they cannot be paired with an already-observed original-report return path; displaced originals are not guaranteed recoverable for every historical USDA correction.", "historical_original_corrections_complete": false, "latest_event_excluded_from_training": true, "model_gate_is_not_operational_gate": true, "numeric_forecast_policy": "No estimate is emitted with insufficient prior history; no model estimate affects WOW or decisions.", "point_in_time_release_timestamps": true, "price_reference_is_official_settlement": false, "price_reference_timestamp_retained": false, "price_rows_filtered_to_as_of_cutoff": true, "price_rows_unique_by_date_contract": true }, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "system_quality_audit": { "accountability_status": "PARTIAL", "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "critical_gates": { "decision_isolation_gate": true, "immutable_registry_gate": true, "no_operational_promotion_gate": true, "no_predictive_skill_claim_gate": true, "overall_health_gate": true, "point_in_time_gate": true, "reconciliation_gate": true, "runtime_permission_probe_gate": true, "source_alignment_and_price_freshness_gate": true, "wow_isolation_gate": true }, "critical_gates_passed": true, "decision_effect": "NONE", "dimensions": [ { "dimension_id": "SOURCE_PROVENANCE", "earned": 15.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "At least eight unique structural sources have explicit non-stale freshness, observed-at values, and fingerprints", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Every base ledger row is identified, fingerprinted, and read-only", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Both required V2 sources are nonempty, read-only, and SHA-256 fingerprinted", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Base COF and V2 latest releases align, and the fixed-contract panel is current", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Base structural vintages parse strictly, checkpoint tail loss, and chain new semantic records", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 } ], "label": "Source provenance and semantic integrity", "status": "PASS", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "POINT_IN_TIME", "earned": 12.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Events and prices are filtered to the as-of cutoff", "max_points": 4.0, "passed": true, "points": 4.0 }, { "criterion": "Training labels complete before prediction and latest event is excluded", "max_points": 4.0, "passed": true, "points": 4.0 }, { "criterion": "As-released event timestamps are retained", "max_points": 4.0, "passed": true, "points": 4.0 }, { "criterion": "Daily price reference retains a final-bar timestamp", "max_points": 1.5, "passed": false, "points": 0 }, { "criterion": "Historical original/correction pairs are complete", "max_points": 1.5, "passed": false, "points": 0 } ], "label": "Point-in-time and leakage controls", "limitation": "Capped at 12/15: the daily panel lacks a retained final-bar timestamp and historical original/correction completeness is not guaranteed.", "status": "PARTIAL", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "RECONCILIATION", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "All base observations are typed and reconciliations recompute within explicit units/tolerances", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Placement cohort-to-contract reconciliations recompute within head tolerances", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Accounting and reconciliation", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 }, { "dimension_id": "CONTRACT_HORIZONS", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Fixed contracts are used without continuous stitching", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "A unique, fully estimated near/mid/deferred D1/D5/D20/D40 fixed-contract grid is present", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Contract and horizon specificity", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 }, { "dimension_id": "MODEL_GOVERNANCE", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Operational promotion is false", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 }, { "criterion": "Predictive edge remains explicitly unproven", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 }, { "criterion": "Calibration remains explicitly incomplete", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 }, { "criterion": "Pricing authority and execution points are zero", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 } ], "label": "Model governance without promotion leakage", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 }, { "dimension_id": "FORWARD_ACCOUNTABILITY", "earned": 9.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Append-only registry freeze hashes validate", "max_points": 2.0, "passed": true, "points": 2.0 }, { "criterion": "Prior sibling checkpoint detects single-file tail loss", "max_points": 1.0, "passed": true, "points": 1.0 }, { "criterion": "An external protected/WORM ledger anchor exists", "max_points": 1.0, "passed": false, "points": 0 }, { "criterion": "Forecast IDs are deterministic and issuance is deduplicated", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Open and matured-unresolved outcomes remain explicit and unscored", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "At least 36 independent forward report releases and 10 unique releases per claimed horizon are resolved", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": false, "points": 0 } ], "label": "Immutable forward forecast accountability", "limitation": "0 correlated forecast cells across 0 independent report releases are resolved. Same-report roles, horizons, and revisions do not inflate the independent-release threshold. The sibling checkpoint is best-effort and no external WORM anchor exists; accountability is partial and predictive profitability is not graded.", "status": "PARTIAL", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "OPERATIONAL_ISOLATION", "earned": 15.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Base radar has no decision or WOW effect", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Registry writes only below the sibling radar root and the required runtime permission probe passes", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "No live-trade use, auto-promotion, or execution points", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Operational and WOW Command isolation", "status": "PASS", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "TRANSPARENCY", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Complete model card states purpose, target, data, leakage controls, limitations, and governance", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Scorecard names a frozen baseline and baseline-relative primary metric", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Model-card and baseline transparency", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 } ], "eligibility": { "operational_promotion_eligible": false, "predictive_profitability_grade_eligible": false, "status": "ELIGIBLE_SYSTEM_QUALITY_ONLY", "system_quality_grade_eligible": true }, "explicit_exclusions": [ "predictive profitability", "tradable edge", "live execution quality", "risk-adjusted returns" ], "max_points": 0, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "profitability_claim": false, "rubric_id": "ALPHA_SYSTEM_QUALITY_NON_PROFITABILITY_V1", "schema_version": "alpha.system_quality_audit.v1", "scope": "SYSTEM_DESIGN_DATA_INTEGRITY_GOVERNANCE_AND_ACCOUNTABILITY", "score": { "earned": 91.0, "grade": "A-", "maximum": 100.0, "normalized_10": 9.1 }, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "theses": [ { "active_alert_ids": [ "weight_offsets_head_decline", "trade_cushions_domestic_availability" ], "confirmation": "Later marketings and slaughter tighten after placement cohorts roll forward while meat cushions fade.", "contradictions": [ "cof_on_feed_head", "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs" ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "cof_placements_head", "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "beef_exports_ytd_cwe" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "current through 18 months", "invalidation": "Placements recover or meat availability remains ample enough to prevent the expected tightening.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "PRIMARY_WORKING_HYPOTHESIS", "state": "CURRENT_AVAILABILITY_CUSHIONED", "thesis_id": "later_head_tightness_near_meat_cushion", "title": "Later fed-cattle tightness, buffered near-term beef availability" }, { "confirmation": "Weights, imports, dairy-beef supply, or weak exports continue replacing domestic fed-cattle tonnage.", "contradictions": [ "cof_placements_head", "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots" ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "current through 12 months", "invalidation": "Weights normalize and trade cushions reverse before placements recover.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "COMPETING_HYPOTHESIS", "thesis_id": "meat_availability_outlasts_head_shortage", "title": "Beef availability stays adequate longer than cattle head counts imply" }, { "confirmation": "Verified capacity exits or sustained shift reductions tighten the hook-to-cattle balance.", "contradictions": [ "No verified plant closure is inferred from margin data alone." ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "cof_marketings_head", "weekly_fi_slaughter_head" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "3-24 months", "invalidation": "Margins recover and observed capacity remains stable.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "COMPETING_HYPOTHESIS", "thesis_id": "capacity_rationalization_changes_leverage", "title": "Processing-capacity rationalization changes packer and feedyard leverage" } ], "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "validation": { "all_units_typed": true, "decision_effect": "NONE", "failed_reconciliations": [], "futures_pricing_model_active": false, "maximum_execution_points": 0, "missing_core_metrics": [], "missing_inputs": [], "numeric_forecast_policy": "No forward numeric value is emitted until an independently validated model supplies it.", "point_in_time_only": true, "promotion_gate_passed": false, "semantic_vintage_chain_validation": "PASS_WITH_LEGACY_PREFIX", "semantic_vintage_checkpoint_prior_state": "PASS", "semantic_vintage_checkpoint_validation": "PASS", "semantic_vintage_external_anchor_present": false, "semantic_vintage_parse_strict": true, "semantic_vintages": true, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "vintage_record_hash": "1229f2e14155d07e00955d94e2bce3b10ccca244868f5f2ccc382585de6ab4a8", "warnings": [] }, { "balance_sheet": { "as_of": "2026-07-24", "periods": [ { "period": "Current feedlot inventory", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current fed-cattle inventory.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 1, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Cattle on feed", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_on_feed_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "feedlot_inventory", "unit": "head", "value": 11370000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24", "yoy_pct": 2.0 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Incoming placement pipeline", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Incoming fed-cattle pipeline.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 1, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Monthly placements", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_placements_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "incoming_pipeline", "unit": "head", "value": 1399000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24", "yoy_pct": -3.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 1, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements under 600 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_less_than_600_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 325000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 1, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 600-699 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_600_699_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 225000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 1, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 700-799 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_700_799_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 300000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 1, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 800-899 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_800_899_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 309000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 1, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 900-999 lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_900_999_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 160000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 1, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Placements 1,000+ lb", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_1000_lbs_and_greater", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "unit": "head", "value": 80000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "USDA ERS-derived feeder-cattle reservoir outside feedlots; lower inventory can constrain future placements.", "freshness": { "cadence": "Quarterly USDA ERS feeder supply", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Feeder cattle outside feedlots", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_FEEDER_SUPPLY" ], "stage": "feeder_supply", "unit": "thousand_head", "value": 18776.97, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-04-01", "yoy_pct": 2.2631 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Fed-cattle outflow and meat production", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Fed-cattle outflow toward slaughter.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 1, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Monthly marketings", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_marketings_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "fed_outflow", "unit": "head", "value": 1661000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24", "yoy_pct": -3.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Non-marketing feedlot disappearance.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 1, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "label": "Other disappearance", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "cof_other_disappearance_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "stage": "fed_outflow", "unit": "head", "value": 50000, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24", "yoy_pct": -6.0 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Observed weekly cattle head throughput.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-25T13:00:08", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Weekly federally inspected slaughter", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "slaughter", "unit": "head", "value": 525000.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "yoy_pct": -7.4074 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Pounds produced per slaughtered animal.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-25T13:00:08", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Average dressed weight", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "yield", "unit": "lb_per_head", "value": 887.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "yoy_pct": 2.662 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Observed weekly beef output combines head throughput and carcass yield.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-25T13:00:08", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Weekly beef production", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "meat_output", "unit": "million_lb", "value": 464.5, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "yoy_pct": -5.0491 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Counterfactual pounds effect holding year-ago dressed weight constant.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-25T13:00:08", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Head-count contribution to weekly production change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_head_count_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "production_bridge", "unit": "million_lb", "value": -36.288, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Incremental pounds attributable to the dressed-weight change at current slaughter.", "freshness": { "imported_at": "2026-07-25T13:00:08", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Dressed-weight contribution to weekly production change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "stage": "production_bridge", "unit": "million_lb", "value": 12.075, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "yoy_pct": null } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Trade and domestic availability", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Imported beef adds to domestic carcass-weight-equivalent availability.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date beef imports", "metadata": { "ytd_comparable": true, "ytd_through_month": 5 }, "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 2754566570.58, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": 9.9 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Exported beef removes product from domestic availability while reflecting foreign demand.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date beef exports", "metadata": { "ytd_comparable": true, "ytd_through_month": 5 }, "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 978518541.27, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": -17.2 }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Imports less exports; this is a product-availability measure, not a fed-cattle-equivalent count.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Year-to-date net beef imports", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "stage": "trade_availability", "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value": 1776048029.31, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": -2.3381, "economic_read": "Weekly wholesale movement; descriptive context only because its futures validation gate has not passed.", "freshness": { "expected_latest_tuesday": "2026-07-21", "last_refresh_time_ct": "2026-07-22T14:20:16.416347-05:00", "latest_report_date": "2026-07-21", "reason": "Canonical Tuesday afternoon LM_XB403 history is current and complete.", "state": "PASS", "status_error": null, "status_report_date": "2026-07-21", "status_source_fingerprint": "e6bdbe15f174d0f6951242a4ce2db7c4bdb48a31f51f50442c7464b635d9a8de", "status_source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/boxed_beef/boxed_beef_tuesday_history_status.json" }, "label": "Tuesday Choice/Select average weekly change", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "tuesday_cutout_average_change_pct", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_BOXED_TUESDAY" ], "stage": "wholesale_demand", "unit": "percent", "value": -2.3381, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-21", "yoy_pct": null } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" }, { "period": "Capacity, cash, herd, and policy context", "stages": [ { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Standardized box-minus-live operating-spread proxy; not company net income and not a futures timing signal.", "freshness": { "business_release_lag": 0, "calendar_age_days": 0, "expected_report_date": "2026-07-24", "holiday_calendar_note": "Weekday-aware; USDA holiday exceptions may produce WATCH until the next release.", "reason": "Latest expected weekday USDA CEI report is present.", "release_cutoff_ct": "15:45", "report_date": "2026-07-24", "state": "PASS", "status": "PASS", "weekend_aware": true }, "label": "USDA CEI gross packer spread", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_CEI" ], "stage": "processing_economics", "unit": "usd_per_cwt_carcass", "value": 3.6563, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current operating status constrains or restores feeder-cattle inflow; duration and price impact are not assumed.", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "label": "Southern livestock port status", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_APHIS" ], "stage": "biological_policy", "unit": "status", "value": "CLOSED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current cash transmission and feedyard/packer leverage context.", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "pass_max_days": 2, "state": "PASS", "watch_max_days": 5 }, "label": "Blended live cash cattle", "metadata": { "change_vs_last_week_usd_per_cwt": -8.21 }, "metric_id": "blended_live_cash", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_CASH" ], "stage": "cash_transmission", "unit": "usd_per_cwt_live", "value": 230.59, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24", "yoy_pct": null }, { "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Replacement intentions inform herd rebuilding capacity; they do not guarantee retained females or calf-crop growth.", "freshness": { "cadence": "Annual USDA ERS herd replacement", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "label": "Intended heifer replacements", "metadata": {}, "metric_id": "intended_heifer_replacements", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_HERD_REPLACEMENT" ], "stage": "breeding_herd", "unit": "thousand_head", "value": 8618.8, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-01-01", "yoy_pct": 0.361 } ], "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS" } ], "reconciliations": [ { "actual": 1399000.0, "check_id": "cof_placement_buckets", "expected": 1399000.0, "name": "Placement weight buckets sum to placements", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 1000.0, "unit": "head" }, { "actual": 11370000.0, "check_id": "cof_head_flow", "expected": 11370000.0, "name": "Opening inventory plus placements less outflows equals closing inventory", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 1000.0, "unit": "head" }, { "actual": 464.5, "check_id": "weekly_production_bridge", "expected": 464.98699999999997, "name": "Year-ago production plus head effect plus weight effect reconciles to current production", "passed": true, "residual": -0.487, "tolerance": 2.3225000000000002, "unit": "million_lb" }, { "actual": 1776048029.31, "check_id": "net_trade_identity", "expected": 1776048029.31, "name": "Imports less exports equals net imports", "passed": true, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 0.01, "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent" } ], "status": "RECONCILED", "summary": { "beef_supply_change_pct": -5.0491, "dressed_weight_yoy_pct": 2.662, "exports_ytd_change_pct": -17.2, "imports_ytd_change_pct": 9.9, "observation_count": 24, "reconciliation_count": 4, "reconciliation_pass_count": 4, "slaughter_yoy_pct": -7.4074, "source_count": 9, "source_ledger_row_count": 9, "status": "RECONCILED", "weight_offset_of_head_decline_pct": 33.28 }, "unit_policy": "No cattle-head-to-beef-pound conversion is made without an exposed observed weight or typed derivation." }, "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "change_alerts": [ { "alert_id": "weight_offsets_head_decline", "counter_evidence": "Reported weekly beef production remains -5.0% YoY.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "MEAT_CUSHION", "horizon": "current to 3 months", "invalidation": "Dressed weights stop offsetting lower head throughput.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "ACTIVE", "summary": "Heavier carcasses are replacing part of the beef tonnage lost to lower slaughter.", "triggers": [ { "label": "Slaughter -7.4% YoY", "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head" }, { "label": "Dressed weight +2.7% YoY", "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs" } ] }, { "alert_id": "trade_cushions_domestic_availability", "counter_evidence": "Product mix and imported lean are not fully interchangeable with Choice fed-beef cuts.", "decision_effect": "NONE", "direction": "DOMESTIC_AVAILABILITY_CUSHION", "horizon": "current to 6 months", "invalidation": "Imports reverse lower and exports recover enough to remove the net availability cushion.", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "state": "ACTIVE", "summary": "Trade flows are cushioning domestic beef availability despite tighter cattle head counts.", "triggers": [ { "label": "YTD imports +9.9%", "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe" }, { "label": "YTD exports -17.2%", "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe" } ] } ], "composer_contract": { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "composer_version": "alpha.structural_radar.composer.v2.0.0", "decision_effect": "NONE", "max_points": 0, "mode": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "conditional_contract_estimates": { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "contract_estimates": [ { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 220.725, 225.6 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 223.425, "contract_role": "near", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-07-27T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": "SFR-73692CE048D34EC0D5DE46B0", "horizon": "d1", "issuance_status": "FROZEN_WHILE_OPEN", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "status": "OPEN_OR_NOT_YET_OBSERVABLE", "target_date": null }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 222.575, "predicted_response_pct": 0.384167, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-10", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": "OPEN", "release_date": "2026-07-24", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -0.825625, 1.358383 ], "symbol": "LEV6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 218.1, 228.25 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 223.45, "contract_role": "near", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-07-31T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": "SFR-8D50347DB9AA396B28607EEC", "horizon": "d5", "issuance_status": "FROZEN_WHILE_OPEN", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "status": "OPEN_OR_NOT_YET_OBSERVABLE", "target_date": null }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 222.575, "predicted_response_pct": 0.391751, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-10", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": "OPEN", "release_date": "2026-07-24", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -2.016041, 2.55228 ], "symbol": "LEV6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 214.75, 236.125 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 223.3, "contract_role": "near", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-08-21T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": "SFR-592CF197E05B4EBF7B2E4549", "horizon": "d20", "issuance_status": "FROZEN_WHILE_OPEN", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "status": "OPEN_OR_NOT_YET_OBSERVABLE", "target_date": null }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 222.575, "predicted_response_pct": 0.320481, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-10", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": "OPEN", "release_date": "2026-07-24", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -3.521256, 6.092773 ], "symbol": "LEV6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 215.35, 239.875 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 224.35, "contract_role": "near", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-09-18T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": "SFR-3C71DE07DDDBC33D8A855269", "horizon": "d40", "issuance_status": "FROZEN_WHILE_OPEN", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "status": "OPEN_OR_NOT_YET_OBSERVABLE", "target_date": null }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 222.575, "predicted_response_pct": 0.802892, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-10", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": "OPEN", "release_date": "2026-07-24", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -3.24287, 7.775708 ], "symbol": "LEV6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 220.725, 224.85 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 223.15, "contract_role": "mid", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-07-27T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": "SFR-96FE853483BD3477CAC4373A", "horizon": "d1", "issuance_status": "FROZEN_WHILE_OPEN", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "status": "OPEN_OR_NOT_YET_OBSERVABLE", "target_date": null }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 222.275, "predicted_response_pct": 0.389117, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-12", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": "OPEN", "release_date": "2026-07-24", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -0.699611, 1.153407 ], "symbol": "LEZ6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 218.0, 227.525 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 223.175, "contract_role": "mid", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-07-31T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": "SFR-6C04A52894A8917ED2FF6053", "horizon": "d5", "issuance_status": "FROZEN_WHILE_OPEN", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "status": "OPEN_OR_NOT_YET_OBSERVABLE", "target_date": null }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 222.275, "predicted_response_pct": 0.402467, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-12", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": "OPEN", "release_date": "2026-07-24", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.92523, 2.359281 ], "symbol": "LEZ6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 213.475, 235.075 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 223.175, "contract_role": "mid", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-08-21T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": "SFR-61F96AF668C6536AAB2AD65F", "horizon": "d20", "issuance_status": "FROZEN_WHILE_OPEN", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "status": "OPEN_OR_NOT_YET_OBSERVABLE", "target_date": null }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 222.275, "predicted_response_pct": 0.409627, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-12", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": "OPEN", "release_date": "2026-07-24", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -3.959491, 5.755716 ], "symbol": "LEZ6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 213.95, 238.9 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 223.7, "contract_role": "mid", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-09-18T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": "SFR-D42A3ECE81D7E5E2B98D7A9D", "horizon": "d40", "issuance_status": "FROZEN_WHILE_OPEN", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "status": "OPEN_OR_NOT_YET_OBSERVABLE", "target_date": null }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 222.275, "predicted_response_pct": 0.644537, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-12", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": "OPEN", "release_date": "2026-07-24", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -3.745429, 7.479223 ], "symbol": "LEZ6", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 222.2, 225.575 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 224.175, "contract_role": "deferred", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-07-27T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": "SFR-7BE28A7BAA6F8CAF93D2371E", "horizon": "d1", "issuance_status": "FROZEN_WHILE_OPEN", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "status": "OPEN_OR_NOT_YET_OBSERVABLE", "target_date": null }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 223.3, "predicted_response_pct": 0.389248, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2027-02", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": "OPEN", "release_date": "2026-07-24", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -0.492242, 1.019313 ], "symbol": "LEG7", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 219.225, 228.925 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 224.35, "contract_role": "deferred", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-07-31T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": "SFR-264AB30E7C84E608F46BB3CE", "horizon": "d5", "issuance_status": "FROZEN_WHILE_OPEN", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "status": "OPEN_OR_NOT_YET_OBSERVABLE", "target_date": null }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 223.3, "predicted_response_pct": 0.473488, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2027-02", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": "OPEN", "release_date": "2026-07-24", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.821666, 2.521559 ], "symbol": "LEG7", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 217.9, 236.25 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 224.325, "contract_role": "deferred", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-08-21T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": "SFR-41C785F15CA6EAAD31D75C5E", "horizon": "d20", "issuance_status": "FROZEN_WHILE_OPEN", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "status": "OPEN_OR_NOT_YET_OBSERVABLE", "target_date": null }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 223.3, "predicted_response_pct": 0.455863, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2027-02", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": "OPEN", "release_date": "2026-07-24", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -2.421714, 5.803479 ], "symbol": "LEG7", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "conditional_price_interval_80": [ 212.2, 238.95 ], "conditional_report_response_price": 225.25, "contract_role": "deferred", "decision_effect": "NONE", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-09-18T13:05:00-05:00", "forecast_id": "SFR-191BE50CAE29E1DC3589A9C1", "horizon": "d40", "issuance_status": "FROZEN_WHILE_OPEN", "max_points": 0, "model_status": "PASS", "observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "status": "OPEN_OR_NOT_YET_OBSERVABLE", "target_date": null }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pre_report_fixed_contract_close": 223.3, "predicted_response_pct": 0.872795, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2027-02", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "registry_outcome_state": "OPEN", "release_date": "2026-07-24", "response_interval_80_pct": [ -4.973402, 7.007314 ], "symbol": "LEG7", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" } ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "definition": "Conditional fixed-contract COF report-response estimates, never intrinsic fair value or trade instructions.", "max_points": 0, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "schema_version": "alpha.conditional_contract_estimates.v1", "status": "RESEARCH_ONLY", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "decision_use": "CONTEXT", "errors": [], "extension_fields": [ "calibration_status", "composer_contract", "conditional_contract_estimates", "fair_values", "forecast_book", "forecast_registry", "forecast_scorecard", "frozen_forecasts", "model_card", "operational_promotion_gate_passed", "predictive_edge_status", "pricing_authority", "structural_futures_v2", "system_quality_audit" ], "fair_values": [ { "as_of_price": 222.575, "contract": "LEV6", "decision_effect": "NONE", "edge_pct": 0.384167, "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "expected_return_pct": 0.384167, "fair_value": 223.425, "horizon": "d1", "interval": [ 220.725, 225.6 ], "issuance_status": "FROZEN_WHILE_OPEN", "market": "LIVE_CATTLE", "model_version": "cof-fixed-contract-ridge-v2.1.0", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predicted_price": 223.425, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-10", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ONLY", "validation_status": "PREDICTIVE_EDGE_UNPROVEN", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "as_of_price": 222.575, "contract": "LEV6", "decision_effect": "NONE", "edge_pct": 0.391751, 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Current status remains NOT_CALIBRATED.", "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "data_sources": [ "USDA NASS COF as-released event rows", "Databento Live Cattle fixed-contract daily bars" ], "evaluation_metrics": [ "MAE", "baseline-relative MAE skill", "directional accuracy", "prediction correlation", "80% interval coverage" ], "fairness_scope": "Not applicable to people; monitor contract-month and market-regime coverage instead.", "feature_families": [ "USDA COF year-over-year release values", "activity-month seasonality" ], "features": [ "on_feed_yoy_delta_pp", "placements_yoy_delta_pp", "marketings_yoy_delta_pp", "activity_month_season_sin", "activity_month_season_cos" ], "governance": { "auto_promotion_path": false, "decision_effect": "NONE", "max_points": 0, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "horizon_definitions": { "d1": "1 actual later fixed-contract session(s)", "d20": "20 actual later fixed-contract session(s)", "d40": "40 actual later fixed-contract session(s)", "d5": "5 actual later fixed-contract session(s)" }, "horizons": [ "d1", "d5", "d20", "d40" ], "intended_uses": [ "research", "hypothesis tracking", "forward accountability", "contract-window comparison" ], "known_limitations": [ "No contemporaneous consensus-surprise feature", "Conditional report response is not all-factor intrinsic value", "Weekday target scheduling is conservative and is reconciled to actual fixed-contract sessions at resolution", "No demonstrated forward predictive edge yet", "No transaction costs, slippage, liquidity, or executable strategy economics" ], "leakage_controls": [ "As-released report values only", "Latest event excluded from training", "Training labels must complete before prediction", "Forward registry rejects horizons already mature at first issuance" ], "lifecycle_status": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "model_name": "Structural Futures V2 fixed-contract COF response", "model_type": "Expanding-window ridge regression with fixed-contract event responses", "model_version": "cof-fixed-contract-ridge-v2.1.0", "monitoring": { "baseline_relative_scorecard": true, "calibration_minimum_unique_report_releases": 36, "immutable_forecast_book": true, "open_outcomes_retained": true }, "owner": "Alpha Structural Radar research boundary", "prediction_population": "Highest-volume unexpired Live Cattle fixed contract and the next two listed expiries on the release date.", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "prohibited_uses": [ "WOW Command input", "official decision input", "live trading", "position sizing", "intrinsic fair-value claim" ], "promotion_criteria": [ "At least 36 independent genuinely forward report releases", "At least 10 unique report releases per claimed horizon", "Positive baseline-relative MAE skill with stable directional evidence", "Independent governance review; never automatic promotion" ], "promotion_gate_passed": false, "purpose": "Estimate a conditional fixed-contract price response after a Cattle on Feed release.", "reproducibility": "Each issuance freezes the implementation SHA-256, fitted ridge coefficients/normalization/penalty, exact training-row identity hash, event features, source hashes, and model-spec hash.", "schema_version": "alpha.model_card.structural_futures_v2.v1", "status": "RESEARCH_ONLY_UNVALIDATED", "target": "Nth actual later RTH last-trade close versus same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close before the after-close COF release; these are not official CME settlements.", "target_definition": "Nth actual later RTH last-trade close versus same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close before the after-close COF release; these are not official CME settlements.", "training": { "continuous_or_stitched_prices_used": false, "fixed_contract_only": true, "method": "Ridge regression fit only to fully labeled events available before each prediction timestamp.", "minimum_train_events": 24, "walk_forward_evaluation": true }, "training_cutoff": "Strictly before each prediction release; every included label must also have completed before that release.", "uncertainty": "Residual 10th/90th-percentile response interval where enough walk-forward residuals exist.", "validation_method": "Expanding-window point-in-time walk-forward", "validation_protocol": "Expanding-window, point-in-time walk-forward evaluation against an expanding-mean diagnostic baseline." }, "open_forecast_count": 12, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "resolved_forecast_count": 0, "schema_version": "alpha.structural_forecast_registry.v1", "scorecard": { "baseline": "ZERO_CHANGE_FIXED_CONTRACT_V1", "baseline_name": "ZERO_CHANGE_FIXED_CONTRACT_V1", "breakdowns": [ { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d1", "label": "D1", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d5", "label": "D5", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d20", "label": "D20", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d40", "label": "D40", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 } ], "by_horizon": [ { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d1", "label": "D1", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d5", "label": "D5", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d20", "label": "D20", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 }, { "directional_accuracy": null, "horizon": "d40", "label": "D40", "mae": null, "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "skill_vs_baseline": null, "unique_report_release_count": 0 } ], "calibration": [], "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "directional_accuracy": null, "forward_resolved_count": 0, "forward_resolved_forecast_count": 0, "forward_test_status": "OPEN_BOOK_NO_FORWARD_RESOLUTIONS", "interval_coverage": null, "mae": null, "mae_skill_vs_baseline": null, "matured_data_pending_count": 0, "mean_bias": null, "open_forecast_count": 12, "performance_status": "UNPROVEN", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "profitability_claim": false, "resolved_forecast_count": 0, "rmse": null, "schema_version": "alpha.structural_forecast_scorecard.v1", "skill_vs_baseline": null, "status": "NO_RESOLVED_FORWARD_FORECASTS", "unique_resolved_release_revision_count": 0, "unique_resolved_report_release_count": 0, "validation_mode": "IMMUTABLE_GENUINELY_FORWARD_OOS" }, "status": "OPEN_RESEARCH_BOOK", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "forecast_registry": { "calibration": { "eligible_for_predictive_claim": false, "minimum_unique_releases_per_horizon": 10, "minimum_unique_report_releases": 36, "reason": "Forward outcomes are being accumulated; 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"Expanding-window ridge regression with fixed-contract event responses", "model_version": "cof-fixed-contract-ridge-v2.1.0", "monitoring": { "baseline_relative_scorecard": true, "calibration_minimum_unique_report_releases": 36, "immutable_forecast_book": true, "open_outcomes_retained": true }, "owner": "Alpha Structural Radar research boundary", "prediction_population": "Highest-volume unexpired Live Cattle fixed contract and the next two listed expiries on the release date.", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "prohibited_uses": [ "WOW Command input", "official decision input", "live trading", "position sizing", "intrinsic fair-value claim" ], "promotion_criteria": [ "At least 36 independent genuinely forward report releases", "At least 10 unique report releases per claimed horizon", "Positive baseline-relative MAE skill with stable directional evidence", "Independent governance review; never automatic promotion" ], "promotion_gate_passed": false, "purpose": "Estimate a conditional fixed-contract price response after a Cattle on Feed release.", "reproducibility": "Each issuance freezes the implementation SHA-256, fitted ridge coefficients/normalization/penalty, exact training-row identity hash, event features, source hashes, and model-spec hash.", "schema_version": "alpha.model_card.structural_futures_v2.v1", "status": "RESEARCH_ONLY_UNVALIDATED", "target": "Nth actual later RTH last-trade close versus same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close before the after-close COF release; these are not official CME settlements.", "target_definition": "Nth actual later RTH last-trade close versus same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close before the after-close COF release; these are not official CME settlements.", "training": { "continuous_or_stitched_prices_used": false, "fixed_contract_only": true, "method": "Ridge regression fit only to fully labeled events available before each prediction timestamp.", "minimum_train_events": 24, "walk_forward_evaluation": true }, "training_cutoff": "Strictly before each prediction release; every included label must also have completed before that release.", "uncertainty": "Residual 10th/90th-percentile response interval where enough walk-forward residuals exist.", "validation_method": "Expanding-window point-in-time walk-forward", "validation_protocol": "Expanding-window, point-in-time walk-forward evaluation against an expanding-mean diagnostic baseline." }, "module": "ALPHA_STRUCTURAL_FORECAST_REGISTRY", "outcome_states": { "MATURED_DATA_PENDING": 0, "OPEN": 12, "RESOLVED": 0 }, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "research_only": true, "safety": { "auto_promotion_path": false, "decision_effect": "NONE", "max_points": 0, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "radar_write_root": "/opt/alpha_structural_radar", "runtime_permission_probe": { "decision_probe_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/decision_status.json", "effective_uid": 997, "method": 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false, "outcome": null, "outcome_status": "OPEN", "predicted_price": 223.7, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-12", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "research_only": true, "status": "OPEN", "target_date": "2026-09-18T13:05:00-05:00", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "content_hash": "bf0305623f100922b88ae1734097f8f153aea6fbad4fd03eb75c56148154c39e", "contract": "LEG7", "decision_effect": "NONE", "expected_return_pct": 0.389248, "forecast_id": "SFR-7BE28A7BAA6F8CAF93D2371E", "freeze_fingerprint": "c487baa6d997b783c55acc69fa191c9f26948dfddad6523e96eda8fd37d7cc4f", "horizon": "d1", "interval": [ -0.492242, 1.019313 ], "issued_at_ct": "2026-07-24T16:50:11.302156-05:00", "max_points": 0, "model_version": "cof-fixed-contract-ridge-v2.1.0", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "outcome": null, "outcome_status": "OPEN", "predicted_price": 224.175, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2027-02", "predictive_edge_status": 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"wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "content_hash": "e2447f9b6517138b2010cae86e9a049e2060bceb8581aa3c70b5b55d85b961f1", "contract": "LEG7", "decision_effect": "NONE", "expected_return_pct": 0.455863, "forecast_id": "SFR-41C785F15CA6EAAD31D75C5E", "freeze_fingerprint": "4012dd686fe6f24461d4819a731c9080b75211a581b0a86999a8259a781060b9", "horizon": "d20", "interval": [ -2.421714, 5.803479 ], "issued_at_ct": "2026-07-24T16:50:11.302156-05:00", "max_points": 0, "model_version": "cof-fixed-contract-ridge-v2.1.0", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "outcome": null, "outcome_status": "OPEN", "predicted_price": 224.325, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2027-02", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "research_only": true, "status": "OPEN", "target_date": "2026-08-21T13:05:00-05:00", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "content_hash": "c18b7e95a31c104f705b6e04d57c0ba7c2f654f8cbff2b34747845eea8330bac", "contract": "LEG7", "decision_effect": "NONE", "expected_return_pct": 0.872795, "forecast_id": "SFR-191BE50CAE29E1DC3589A9C1", "freeze_fingerprint": "e34d1639569bcfecb6be1333be9ce21f7c349bf56b26d7ff0aca0e27224b1a58", "horizon": "d40", "interval": [ -4.973402, 7.007314 ], "issued_at_ct": "2026-07-24T16:50:11.302156-05:00", "max_points": 0, "model_version": "cof-fixed-contract-ridge-v2.1.0", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "outcome": null, "outcome_status": "OPEN", "predicted_price": 225.25, "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2027-02", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "research_only": true, "status": "OPEN", "target_date": "2026-09-18T13:05:00-05:00", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" } ], "futures_implications": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESES", "generated_at_ct": "2026-07-25T09:57:01.517720-05:00", "headline": { "confidence": "HIGH", "dominant_stage": "current_inventory_and_pounds", "horizon": "current through 6 months", "state": "CURRENT_AVAILABILITY_CUSHIONED", "text": "Current inventory and meat-availability offsets are more visible than a later cattle shortage.", "what_changed": "No semantic structural change since the prior frozen vintage." }, "history": { "changed_metric_ids": [], "previous_fingerprint": "a437c00d5a0e502bcbe194d48892ec3a376f2ed49a2695d82340ce193947b9b1", "semantic_changed": true, "vintage_count": 31, "vintage_recorded": true }, "live_trade_status": "DISABLED", "max_points": 0, "mode": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "model_card": { "baseline": "Expanding historical mean inside V2 walk-forward diagnostics; zero-change baseline in the immutable forward registry.", "calibration_policy": "No calibrated claim until at least 36 independent genuinely forward report releases and at least 10 unique releases per claimed horizon; correlated role-by-horizon cells and same-report revisions do not count as independent releases. Current status remains NOT_CALIBRATED.", "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "data_sources": [ "USDA NASS COF as-released event rows", "Databento Live Cattle fixed-contract daily bars" ], "evaluation_metrics": [ "MAE", "baseline-relative MAE skill", "directional accuracy", "prediction correlation", "80% interval coverage" ], "fairness_scope": "Not applicable to people; monitor contract-month and market-regime coverage instead.", "feature_families": [ "USDA COF year-over-year release values", "activity-month seasonality" ], "features": [ "on_feed_yoy_delta_pp", "placements_yoy_delta_pp", "marketings_yoy_delta_pp", "activity_month_season_sin", "activity_month_season_cos" ], "governance": { "auto_promotion_path": false, "decision_effect": "NONE", "max_points": 0, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "horizon_definitions": { "d1": "1 actual later fixed-contract session(s)", "d20": "20 actual later fixed-contract session(s)", "d40": "40 actual later fixed-contract session(s)", "d5": "5 actual later fixed-contract session(s)" }, "horizons": [ "d1", "d5", "d20", "d40" ], "intended_uses": [ "research", "hypothesis tracking", "forward accountability", "contract-window comparison" ], "known_limitations": [ "No contemporaneous consensus-surprise feature", "Conditional report response is not all-factor intrinsic value", "Weekday target scheduling is conservative and is reconciled to actual fixed-contract sessions at resolution", "No demonstrated forward predictive edge yet", "No transaction costs, slippage, liquidity, or executable strategy economics" ], "leakage_controls": [ "As-released report values only", "Latest event excluded from training", "Training labels must complete before prediction", "Forward registry rejects horizons already mature at first issuance" ], "lifecycle_status": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "model_name": "Structural Futures V2 fixed-contract COF response", "model_type": "Expanding-window ridge regression with fixed-contract event responses", "model_version": "cof-fixed-contract-ridge-v2.1.0", "monitoring": { "baseline_relative_scorecard": true, "calibration_minimum_unique_report_releases": 36, "immutable_forecast_book": true, "open_outcomes_retained": true }, "owner": "Alpha Structural Radar research boundary", "prediction_population": "Highest-volume unexpired Live Cattle fixed contract and the next two listed expiries on the release date.", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "prohibited_uses": [ "WOW Command input", "official decision input", "live trading", "position sizing", "intrinsic fair-value claim" ], "promotion_criteria": [ "At least 36 independent genuinely forward report releases", "At least 10 unique report releases per claimed horizon", "Positive baseline-relative MAE skill with stable directional evidence", "Independent governance review; never automatic promotion" ], "promotion_gate_passed": false, "purpose": "Estimate a conditional fixed-contract price response after a Cattle on Feed release.", "reproducibility": "Each issuance freezes the implementation SHA-256, fitted ridge coefficients/normalization/penalty, exact training-row identity hash, event features, source hashes, and model-spec hash.", "schema_version": "alpha.model_card.structural_futures_v2.v1", "status": "RESEARCH_ONLY_UNVALIDATED", "target": "Nth actual later RTH last-trade close versus same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close before the after-close COF release; these are not official CME settlements.", "target_definition": "Nth actual later RTH last-trade close versus same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close before the after-close COF release; these are not official CME settlements.", "training": { "continuous_or_stitched_prices_used": false, "fixed_contract_only": true, "method": "Ridge regression fit only to fully labeled events available before each prediction timestamp.", "minimum_train_events": 24, "walk_forward_evaluation": true }, "training_cutoff": "Strictly before each prediction release; every included label must also have completed before that release.", "uncertainty": "Residual 10th/90th-percentile response interval where enough walk-forward residuals exist.", "validation_method": "Expanding-window point-in-time walk-forward", "validation_protocol": "Expanding-window, point-in-time walk-forward evaluation against an expanding-mean diagnostic baseline." }, "module": "ALPHA_STRUCTURAL_RADAR_V1", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "previous_vintage_record_hash": "1229f2e14155d07e00955d94e2bce3b10ccca244868f5f2ccc382585de6ab4a8", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "revision_ledger": [ { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_on_feed_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_placements_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_marketings_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_other_disappearance_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_less_than_600_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_600_699_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_700_799_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_800_899_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_900_999_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "cof_1000_lbs_and_greater", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_head_count_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-05" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "blended_live_cash", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "tuesday_cutout_average_change_pct", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-21" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-04-01" }, { "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage.", "metric_id": "intended_heifer_replacements", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "vintage_date": "2026-01-01" } ], "schema_version": "1.0.0", "semantic_fingerprint": "9edd1121961a8c58bcb0c7057503a37a5ff77f3397e8b49fcf250f1926819fb9", "separation_contract": { "auto_promotion_path": false, "calls_decision_components": false, "official_decision_effect": "NONE", "radar_write_root": "/opt/alpha_structural_radar", "reads_decision_outputs": false, "source_root_read_only": "/opt/alpha_current", "wow_command_effect": "NONE", "write_allowlist": [ "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs/structural_radar_status.json", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs/structural_radar_history.json", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/data/structural_radar/vintages.jsonl", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/state/structural_radar.lock" ], "writes_decision_outputs": false }, "source_ledger": [ { "error": null, "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 1, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS", "warn_days": 32 }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-24", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "d7b31a5908acf3d7d77e18e1119d8360d49d13dbbc411e4be2681195a953004a", "source_id": "USDA_NASS_COF", "source_module": "cattle_on_feed", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/cattle_on_feed_status.json", "upstream_status": "PASS", 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{ "cadence": "Annual USDA ERS herd replacement", "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED" }, "observed_at_ct": "2026-01-01", "read_only_input": true, "source_fingerprint": "281e3d55e23156459116f1b342105d36eb78c6d3295597ee52f60c846528960d", "source_id": "USDA_ERS_HERD_REPLACEMENT", "source_module": "ers_heifer_replacements", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/ers_livestock_domestic_data/livestock-data-machine-readable-files/heifersenteringherd.csv", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "value_kind": "OBSERVED" } ], "status": "PASS", "structural_futures_v2": { "cohort_timing_bridge": { "assumptions": { "contract_mapping": "Each possible market-ready day maps to the nearest still-unexpired Feb/Apr/Jun/Aug/Oct/Dec Live Cattle contract midpoint. 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170 }, "delta_head": -10000, "delta_pct": -4.255, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-11-18", "latest": "2027-02-15" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-12-06", "p50": "2027-01-01", "p90": "2027-01-28", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 235000 }, { "bucket_id": "700_799_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 12786.9, "delta_head_equivalent": -639.3, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 13426.2, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.042623 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 264918.0, "delta_head_equivalent": -13245.9, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 278163.9, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.88306 }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 22295.1, "delta_head_equivalent": -1114.8, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 23409.8, "symbol": "LEG7", "window_day_share": 0.074317 } ], "current_head": 300000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 200, "minimum": 140 }, "delta_head": -15000, "delta_pct": -4.762, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-10-19", "latest": "2027-01-16" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-11-06", "p50": "2026-12-02", "p90": "2026-12-29", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 315000 }, { "bucket_id": "800_899_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 139303.3, "delta_head_equivalent": -7663.9, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 146967.2, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.45082 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 169696.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -9336.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 179032.8, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.54918 } ], "current_head": 309000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 170, "minimum": 110 }, "delta_head": -17000, "delta_pct": -5.215, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-09-19", "latest": "2026-12-17" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-10-07", "p50": "2026-11-02", "p90": "2026-11-29", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 326000 }, { "bucket_id": "900_999_lbs", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 6819.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -213.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 7032.8, "symbol": "LEQ6", "window_day_share": 0.042623 }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 138229.5, "delta_head_equivalent": -4319.7, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 142549.2, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.863934 }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 14950.8, "delta_head_equivalent": -467.2, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 15418.0, "symbol": "LEZ6", "window_day_share": 0.093443 } ], "current_head": 160000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 140, "minimum": 80 }, "delta_head": -5000, "delta_pct": -3.03, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-08-20", "latest": "2026-11-17" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-09-07", "p50": "2026-10-03", "p90": "2026-10-30", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 165000 }, { "bucket_id": "1000_lbs_and_greater", "contract_exposures": [ { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 36065.6, "delta_head_equivalent": 0.0, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 36065.6, "symbol": "LEQ6", "window_day_share": 0.45082 }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 43934.4, "delta_head_equivalent": 0.0, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 43934.4, "symbol": "LEV6", "window_day_share": 0.54918 } ], "current_head": 80000, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION", "maximum": 110, "minimum": 50 }, "delta_head": 0, "delta_pct": 0.0, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-07-21", "latest": "2026-10-18" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-08-08", "p50": "2026-09-03", "p90": "2026-09-30", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "prior_year_head": 80000 } ], "comparison": "SAME_ACTIVITY_MONTH_AS_RELEASED_YEAR_OVER_YEAR", "contracts": [ { "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 42885.2, "delta_head_equivalent": -213.1, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 43098.4, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEQ6" }, { "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 334254.1, "delta_head_equivalent": -12623.0, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 346877.0, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEV6" }, { "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 611655.7, "delta_head_equivalent": -27065.6, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 638721.3, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEZ6" }, { "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 402213.1, "delta_head_equivalent": -2221.3, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 404434.4, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEG7" }, { "contract_month": "2027-04", "current_head_equivalent": 7991.8, "delta_head_equivalent": 123.0, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 7868.9, "structural_read": "MORE_HEAD_EXPOSED_PRESSURE", "symbol": "LEJ7" } ], "latest_activity_month": "2026-06-01", "latest_release_date": "2026-07-24", "prior_year_activity_month": "2025-06-01", "prior_year_release_date": "2025-07-25", "reconciliations": [ { "actual": 1399000.0, "check_id": "latest_bucket_sum_to_placements", 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"delta_head_equivalent": -27065.6, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "prior_year_head_equivalent": 638721.3, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "symbol": "LEZ6" }, "contract_id": "LE-2026-12", "horizons": [ { "conditional_fair_value": 223.15, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 220.725, 224.85 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d1", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, "predicted_response_pct": 0.389117, "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -0.699611, 1.153407 ], "status": "PASS" }, { "conditional_fair_value": 223.175, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 218.0, 227.525 ], "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "horizon": "d5", "latest_observed_outcome": { "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true, "target_date": null }, 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"known_at_ct": "2026-07-24T14:00:00-05:00", "observation_id": "season_cos", "unit": "cyclical_component", "value": -1.0, "value_kind": "DERIVED_FROM_ACTIVITY_MONTH" } ], "provenance": { "source_sha256": "f794b52ee157e529650937be610257d9a1fe30ab11b41e17136a637434fae049", "source_url": "https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795993/cofd0726.txt" }, "release_date": "2026-07-24", "release_revision_id": "795993@2026-07-24T14:00:00-05:00", "release_timestamp_ct": "2026-07-24T14:00:00-05:00", "release_timestamp_kind": "RECORDED_SOURCE_TIMESTAMP", "research_only": true, "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false } }, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "research_only": true, "schema_version": "alpha.structural_futures.v2", "semantic_fingerprint": "75c3efb1b3ea7175b6b8c193004dcef47d858e71a5368df671a59097f92a5e61", "source_ledger": [ { "path": "/opt/alpha_current/data/cattle_on_feed/report_events.csv", "read_only": true, "rows": 115, "sha256": "9e0f6663b9f5b64cae55c5d58590d4b4c15ff29c0758ab88650b15c8bf01f3bd", "source_id": "USDA_NASS_COF_AS_RELEASED" }, { "path": "/opt/alpha_current/data/cattle_on_feed/le_fixed_ohlcv_1d.parquet", "read_only": true, "rows": 14323, "sha256": "ba420ff0515470a8f5ceab9447b9881b3eb38d99b2eca783ec170622893abb47", "source_id": "DATABENTO_LE_FIXED_CONTRACT_DAILY" } ], "status": "PASS", "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "validation": { "all_training_labels_completed_before_prediction": true, "cohort_reconciliations_passed": true, "corrections_after_response_anchor_excluded": true, "data_status": { "event_rows": 115, "first_event_date": "2017-01-27", "fixed_contract_rows": 14323, "latest_event_date": "2026-07-24", "latest_event_price_reference_available": true, "price_first_date": "2020-01-02", "price_last_date": "2026-07-24", "response_panel_rows": 234 }, "events_filtered_to_as_of_cutoff": true, "historical_correction_policy": "Recorded same-date revisions are cutoff-aware. Later-date corrections are excluded from the report-response panel so they cannot be paired with an already-observed original-report return path; displaced originals are not guaranteed recoverable for every historical USDA correction.", "historical_original_corrections_complete": false, "latest_event_excluded_from_training": true, "model_gate_is_not_operational_gate": true, "numeric_forecast_policy": "No estimate is emitted with insufficient prior history; no model estimate affects WOW or decisions.", "point_in_time_release_timestamps": true, "price_reference_is_official_settlement": false, "price_reference_timestamp_retained": false, "price_rows_filtered_to_as_of_cutoff": true, "price_rows_unique_by_date_contract": true }, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "system_quality_audit": { "accountability_status": "PARTIAL", "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "critical_gates": { "decision_isolation_gate": true, "immutable_registry_gate": true, "no_operational_promotion_gate": true, "no_predictive_skill_claim_gate": true, "overall_health_gate": true, "point_in_time_gate": true, "reconciliation_gate": true, "runtime_permission_probe_gate": true, "source_alignment_and_price_freshness_gate": true, "wow_isolation_gate": true }, "critical_gates_passed": true, "decision_effect": "NONE", "dimensions": [ { "dimension_id": "SOURCE_PROVENANCE", "earned": 15.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "At least eight unique structural sources have explicit non-stale freshness, observed-at values, and fingerprints", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Every base ledger row is identified, fingerprinted, and read-only", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Both required V2 sources are nonempty, read-only, and SHA-256 fingerprinted", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Base COF and V2 latest releases align, and the fixed-contract panel is current", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Base structural vintages parse strictly, checkpoint tail loss, and chain new semantic records", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 } ], "label": "Source provenance and semantic integrity", "status": "PASS", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "POINT_IN_TIME", "earned": 12.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Events and prices are filtered to the as-of cutoff", "max_points": 4.0, "passed": true, "points": 4.0 }, { "criterion": "Training labels complete before prediction and latest event is excluded", "max_points": 4.0, "passed": true, "points": 4.0 }, { "criterion": "As-released event timestamps are retained", "max_points": 4.0, "passed": true, "points": 4.0 }, { "criterion": "Daily price reference retains a final-bar timestamp", "max_points": 1.5, "passed": false, "points": 0 }, { "criterion": "Historical original/correction pairs are complete", "max_points": 1.5, "passed": false, "points": 0 } ], "label": "Point-in-time and leakage controls", "limitation": "Capped at 12/15: the daily panel lacks a retained final-bar timestamp and historical original/correction completeness is not guaranteed.", "status": "PARTIAL", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "RECONCILIATION", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "All base observations are typed and reconciliations recompute within explicit units/tolerances", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Placement cohort-to-contract reconciliations recompute within head tolerances", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Accounting and reconciliation", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 }, { "dimension_id": "CONTRACT_HORIZONS", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Fixed contracts are used without continuous stitching", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "A unique, fully estimated near/mid/deferred D1/D5/D20/D40 fixed-contract grid is present", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Contract and horizon specificity", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 }, { "dimension_id": "MODEL_GOVERNANCE", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Operational promotion is false", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 }, { "criterion": "Predictive edge remains explicitly unproven", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 }, { "criterion": "Calibration remains explicitly incomplete", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 }, { "criterion": "Pricing authority and execution points are zero", "max_points": 2.5, "passed": true, "points": 2.5 } ], "label": "Model governance without promotion leakage", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 }, { "dimension_id": "FORWARD_ACCOUNTABILITY", "earned": 9.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Append-only registry freeze hashes validate", "max_points": 2.0, "passed": true, "points": 2.0 }, { "criterion": "Prior sibling checkpoint detects single-file tail loss", "max_points": 1.0, "passed": true, "points": 1.0 }, { "criterion": "An external protected/WORM ledger anchor exists", "max_points": 1.0, "passed": false, "points": 0 }, { "criterion": "Forecast IDs are deterministic and issuance is deduplicated", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Open and matured-unresolved outcomes remain explicit and unscored", "max_points": 3.0, "passed": true, "points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "At least 36 independent forward report releases and 10 unique releases per claimed horizon are resolved", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": false, "points": 0 } ], "label": "Immutable forward forecast accountability", "limitation": "0 correlated forecast cells across 0 independent report releases are resolved. Same-report roles, horizons, and revisions do not inflate the independent-release threshold. The sibling checkpoint is best-effort and no external WORM anchor exists; accountability is partial and predictive profitability is not graded.", "status": "PARTIAL", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "OPERATIONAL_ISOLATION", "earned": 15.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Base radar has no decision or WOW effect", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Registry writes only below the sibling radar root and the required runtime permission probe passes", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "No live-trade use, auto-promotion, or execution points", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Operational and WOW Command isolation", "status": "PASS", "weight": 15 }, { "dimension_id": "TRANSPARENCY", "earned": 10.0, "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Complete model card states purpose, target, data, leakage controls, limitations, and governance", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Scorecard names a frozen baseline and baseline-relative primary metric", "max_points": 5.0, "passed": true, "points": 5.0 } ], "label": "Model-card and baseline transparency", "status": "PASS", "weight": 10 } ], "eligibility": { "operational_promotion_eligible": false, "predictive_profitability_grade_eligible": false, "status": "ELIGIBLE_SYSTEM_QUALITY_ONLY", "system_quality_grade_eligible": true }, "explicit_exclusions": [ "predictive profitability", "tradable edge", "live execution quality", "risk-adjusted returns" ], "max_points": 0, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "profitability_claim": false, "rubric_id": "ALPHA_SYSTEM_QUALITY_NON_PROFITABILITY_V1", "schema_version": "alpha.system_quality_audit.v1", "scope": "SYSTEM_DESIGN_DATA_INTEGRITY_GOVERNANCE_AND_ACCOUNTABILITY", "score": { "earned": 91.0, "grade": "A-", "maximum": 100.0, "normalized_10": 9.1 }, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "theses": [ { "active_alert_ids": [ "weight_offsets_head_decline", "trade_cushions_domestic_availability" ], "confirmation": "Later marketings and slaughter tighten after placement cohorts roll forward while meat cushions fade.", "contradictions": [ "cof_on_feed_head", "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs" ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "cof_placements_head", "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "beef_exports_ytd_cwe" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "current through 18 months", "invalidation": "Placements recover or meat availability remains ample enough to prevent the expected tightening.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "PRIMARY_WORKING_HYPOTHESIS", "state": "CURRENT_AVAILABILITY_CUSHIONED", "thesis_id": "later_head_tightness_near_meat_cushion", "title": "Later fed-cattle tightness, buffered near-term beef availability" }, { "confirmation": "Weights, imports, dairy-beef supply, or weak exports continue replacing domestic fed-cattle tonnage.", "contradictions": [ "cof_placements_head", "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots" ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "current through 12 months", "invalidation": "Weights normalize and trade cushions reverse before placements recover.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "COMPETING_HYPOTHESIS", "thesis_id": "meat_availability_outlasts_head_shortage", "title": "Beef availability stays adequate longer than cattle head counts imply" }, { "confirmation": "Verified capacity exits or sustained shift reductions tighten the hook-to-cattle balance.", "contradictions": [ "No verified plant closure is inferred from margin data alone." ], "decision_effect": "NONE", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "cof_marketings_head", "weekly_fi_slaughter_head" ], "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "horizon": "3-24 months", "invalidation": "Margins recover and observed capacity remains stable.", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "role": "COMPETING_HYPOTHESIS", "thesis_id": "capacity_rationalization_changes_leverage", "title": "Processing-capacity rationalization changes packer and feedyard leverage" } ], "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "validation": { "all_units_typed": true, "decision_effect": "NONE", "failed_reconciliations": [], "futures_pricing_model_active": false, "maximum_execution_points": 0, "missing_core_metrics": [], "missing_inputs": [], "numeric_forecast_policy": "No forward numeric value is emitted until an independently validated model supplies it.", "point_in_time_only": true, "promotion_gate_passed": false, "semantic_vintage_chain_validation": "PASS_WITH_LEGACY_PREFIX", "semantic_vintage_checkpoint_prior_state": "PASS", "semantic_vintage_checkpoint_validation": "PASS", "semantic_vintage_external_anchor_present": false, "semantic_vintage_parse_strict": true, "semantic_vintages": true, "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "vintage_record_hash": "a93a5391d74f99e6441494dfb5726db34bebad47af7cf1687408a2bc86b66776", "warnings": [] }, { "schema_version": "1.0.0", "module": "ALPHA_STRUCTURAL_RADAR_V1", "status": "PASS", "mode": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "generated_at_ct": "2026-07-25T16:50:22.548744-05:00", "decision_use": "CONTEXT", "max_points": 0, "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "live_trade_status": "DISABLED", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "futures_implications": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESES", "separation_contract": { "official_decision_effect": "NONE", "wow_command_effect": "NONE", "writes_decision_outputs": false, "reads_decision_outputs": false, "calls_decision_components": false, "auto_promotion_path": false, "source_root_read_only": "/opt/alpha_current", "radar_write_root": "/opt/alpha_structural_radar", "write_allowlist": [ "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs/structural_radar_status.json", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs/structural_radar_history.json", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/data/structural_radar/vintages.jsonl", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/state/structural_radar.lock" ] }, "headline": { "state": "CURRENT_AVAILABILITY_CUSHIONED", "text": "Current inventory and meat-availability offsets are more visible than a later cattle shortage.", "what_changed": "No semantic structural change since the prior frozen vintage.", "horizon": "current through 6 months", "confidence": "HIGH", "dominant_stage": "current_inventory_and_pounds" }, "balance_sheet": { "as_of": "2026-07-24", "status": "RECONCILED", "summary": { "status": "RECONCILED", "observation_count": 24, "source_count": 9, "source_ledger_row_count": 9, "reconciliation_pass_count": 4, "reconciliation_count": 4, "slaughter_yoy_pct": -7.4074, "dressed_weight_yoy_pct": 2.662, "beef_supply_change_pct": -5.0491, "weight_offset_of_head_decline_pct": 33.28, "imports_ytd_change_pct": 9.9, "exports_ytd_change_pct": -17.2 }, "periods": [ { "period": "Current feedlot inventory", "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS", "stages": [ { "metric_id": "cof_on_feed_head", "label": "Cattle on feed", "stage": "feedlot_inventory", "value": 11370000, "unit": "head", "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 1, "warn_days": 32, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS" }, "yoy_pct": 2.0, "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current fed-cattle inventory.", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "metadata": {} } ] }, { "period": "Incoming placement pipeline", "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS", "stages": [ { "metric_id": "cof_placements_head", "label": "Monthly placements", "stage": "incoming_pipeline", "value": 1399000, "unit": "head", "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 1, "warn_days": 32, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS" }, "yoy_pct": -3.0, "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Incoming fed-cattle pipeline.", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "metadata": {} }, { "metric_id": "cof_less_than_600_lbs", "label": "Placements under 600 lb", "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "value": 325000, "unit": "head", "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 1, "warn_days": 32, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS" }, "yoy_pct": null, "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "metadata": {} }, { "metric_id": "cof_600_699_lbs", "label": "Placements 600-699 lb", "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "value": 225000, "unit": "head", "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 1, "warn_days": 32, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS" }, "yoy_pct": null, "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "metadata": {} }, { "metric_id": "cof_700_799_lbs", "label": "Placements 700-799 lb", "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "value": 300000, "unit": "head", "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 1, "warn_days": 32, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS" }, "yoy_pct": null, "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "metadata": {} }, { "metric_id": "cof_800_899_lbs", "label": "Placements 800-899 lb", "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "value": 309000, "unit": "head", "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 1, "warn_days": 32, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS" }, "yoy_pct": null, "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "metadata": {} }, { "metric_id": "cof_900_999_lbs", "label": "Placements 900-999 lb", "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "value": 160000, "unit": "head", "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 1, "warn_days": 32, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS" }, "yoy_pct": null, "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "metadata": {} }, { "metric_id": "cof_1000_lbs_and_greater", "label": "Placements 1,000+ lb", "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "value": 80000, "unit": "head", "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 1, "warn_days": 32, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS" }, "yoy_pct": null, "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "metadata": {} }, { "metric_id": "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots", "label": "Feeder cattle outside feedlots", "stage": "feeder_supply", "value": 18776.97, "unit": "thousand_head", "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-04-01", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_FEEDER_SUPPLY" ], "freshness": { "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED", "cadence": "Quarterly USDA ERS feeder supply" }, "yoy_pct": 2.2631, "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "USDA ERS-derived feeder-cattle reservoir outside feedlots; lower inventory can constrain future placements.", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "metadata": {} } ] }, { "period": "Fed-cattle outflow and meat production", "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS", "stages": [ { "metric_id": "cof_marketings_head", "label": "Monthly marketings", "stage": "fed_outflow", "value": 1661000, "unit": "head", "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 1, "warn_days": 32, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS" }, "yoy_pct": -3.0, "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Fed-cattle outflow toward slaughter.", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "metadata": {} }, { "metric_id": "cof_other_disappearance_head", "label": "Other disappearance", "stage": "fed_outflow", "value": 50000, "unit": "head", "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 1, "warn_days": 32, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS" }, "yoy_pct": -6.0, "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Non-marketing feedlot disappearance.", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "metadata": {} }, { "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head", "label": "Weekly federally inspected slaughter", "stage": "slaughter", "value": 525000.0, "unit": "head", "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "freshness": { "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED", "imported_at": "2026-07-25T21:30:41" }, "yoy_pct": -7.4074, "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Observed weekly cattle head throughput.", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "metadata": {} }, { "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "label": "Average dressed weight", "stage": "yield", "value": 887.0, "unit": "lb_per_head", "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "freshness": { "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED", "imported_at": "2026-07-25T21:30:41" }, "yoy_pct": 2.662, "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Pounds produced per slaughtered animal.", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "metadata": {} }, { "metric_id": "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs", "label": "Weekly beef production", "stage": "meat_output", "value": 464.5, "unit": "million_lb", "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "freshness": { "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED", "imported_at": "2026-07-25T21:30:41" }, "yoy_pct": -5.0491, "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Observed weekly beef output combines head throughput and carcass yield.", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "metadata": {} }, { "metric_id": "weekly_head_count_effect_mil_lbs", "label": "Head-count contribution to weekly production change", "stage": "production_bridge", "value": -36.288, "unit": "million_lb", "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "freshness": { "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED", "imported_at": "2026-07-25T21:30:41" }, "yoy_pct": null, "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Counterfactual pounds effect holding year-ago dressed weight constant.", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "metadata": {} }, { "metric_id": "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "label": "Dressed-weight contribution to weekly production change", "stage": "production_bridge", "value": 12.075, "unit": "million_lb", "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "freshness": { "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED", "imported_at": "2026-07-25T21:30:41" }, "yoy_pct": null, "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Incremental pounds attributable to the dressed-weight change at current slaughter.", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "metadata": {} } ] }, { "period": "Trade and domestic availability", "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS", "stages": [ { "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "label": "Year-to-date beef imports", "stage": "trade_availability", "value": 2754566570.58, "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "yoy_pct": 9.9, "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Imported beef adds to domestic carcass-weight-equivalent availability.", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "metadata": { "ytd_through_month": 5, "ytd_comparable": true } }, { "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe", "label": "Year-to-date beef exports", "stage": "trade_availability", "value": 978518541.27, "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "yoy_pct": -17.2, "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Exported beef removes product from domestic availability while reflecting foreign demand.", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "metadata": { "ytd_through_month": 5, "ytd_comparable": true } }, { "metric_id": "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe", "label": "Year-to-date net beef imports", "stage": "trade_availability", "value": 1776048029.31, "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "yoy_pct": null, "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Imports less exports; this is a product-availability measure, not a fed-cattle-equivalent count.", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "metadata": {} }, { "metric_id": "tuesday_cutout_average_change_pct", "label": "Tuesday Choice/Select average weekly change", "stage": "wholesale_demand", "value": -2.3381, "unit": "percent", "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-21", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_BOXED_TUESDAY" ], "freshness": { "state": "PASS", "reason": "Canonical Tuesday afternoon LM_XB403 history is current and complete.", "latest_report_date": "2026-07-21", "status_report_date": "2026-07-21", "expected_latest_tuesday": "2026-07-21", "last_refresh_time_ct": "2026-07-22T14:20:16.416347-05:00", "status_source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/boxed_beef/boxed_beef_tuesday_history_status.json", "status_source_fingerprint": "e6bdbe15f174d0f6951242a4ce2db7c4bdb48a31f51f50442c7464b635d9a8de", "status_error": null }, "yoy_pct": null, "change_pct": -2.3381, "economic_read": "Weekly wholesale movement; descriptive context only because its futures validation gate has not passed.", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "metadata": {} } ] }, { "period": "Capacity, cash, herd, and policy context", "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS", "stages": [ { "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "label": "USDA CEI gross packer spread", "stage": "processing_economics", "value": 3.6563, "unit": "usd_per_cwt_carcass", "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_CEI" ], "freshness": { "status": "PASS", "reason": "Latest expected weekday USDA CEI report is present.", "report_date": "2026-07-24", "expected_report_date": "2026-07-24", "calendar_age_days": 0, "business_release_lag": 0, "release_cutoff_ct": "15:45", "weekend_aware": true, "holiday_calendar_note": "Weekday-aware; USDA holiday exceptions may produce WATCH until the next release.", "state": "PASS" }, "yoy_pct": null, "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Standardized box-minus-live operating-spread proxy; not company net income and not a futures timing signal.", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "metadata": {} }, { "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports", "label": "Southern livestock port status", "stage": "biological_policy", "value": "CLOSED", "unit": "status", "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24", "source_ids": [ "USDA_APHIS" ], "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "yoy_pct": null, "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current operating status constrains or restores feeder-cattle inflow; duration and price impact are not assumed.", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "metadata": {} }, { "metric_id": "blended_live_cash", "label": "Blended live cash cattle", "stage": "cash_transmission", "value": 230.59, "unit": "usd_per_cwt_live", "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_CASH" ], "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "pass_max_days": 2, "watch_max_days": 5, "state": "PASS" }, "yoy_pct": null, "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current cash transmission and feedyard/packer leverage context.", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "metadata": { "change_vs_last_week_usd_per_cwt": -8.21 } }, { "metric_id": "intended_heifer_replacements", "label": "Intended heifer replacements", "stage": "breeding_herd", "value": 8618.8, "unit": "thousand_head", "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-01-01", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_HERD_REPLACEMENT" ], "freshness": { "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED", "cadence": "Annual USDA ERS herd replacement" }, "yoy_pct": 0.361, "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Replacement intentions inform herd rebuilding capacity; they do not guarantee retained females or calf-crop growth.", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "metadata": {} } ] } ], "reconciliations": [ { "check_id": "cof_placement_buckets", "name": "Placement weight buckets sum to placements", "expected": 1399000.0, "actual": 1399000.0, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 1000.0, "unit": "head", "passed": true }, { "check_id": "cof_head_flow", "name": "Opening inventory plus placements less outflows equals closing inventory", "expected": 11370000.0, "actual": 11370000.0, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 1000.0, "unit": "head", "passed": true }, { "check_id": "weekly_production_bridge", "name": "Year-ago production plus head effect plus weight effect reconciles to current production", "expected": 464.98699999999997, "actual": 464.5, "residual": -0.487, "tolerance": 2.3225000000000002, "unit": "million_lb", "passed": true }, { "check_id": "net_trade_identity", "name": "Imports less exports equals net imports", "expected": 1776048029.31, "actual": 1776048029.31, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 0.01, "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "passed": true } ], "unit_policy": "No cattle-head-to-beef-pound conversion is made without an exposed observed weight or typed derivation." }, "change_alerts": [ { "alert_id": "weight_offsets_head_decline", "state": "ACTIVE", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "horizon": "current to 3 months", "direction": "MEAT_CUSHION", "summary": "Heavier carcasses are replacing part of the beef tonnage lost to lower slaughter.", "triggers": [ { "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head", "label": "Slaughter -7.4% YoY" }, { "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "label": "Dressed weight +2.7% YoY" } ], "counter_evidence": "Reported weekly beef production remains -5.0% YoY.", "invalidation": "Dressed weights stop offsetting lower head throughput.", "decision_effect": "NONE" }, { "alert_id": "trade_cushions_domestic_availability", "state": "ACTIVE", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "horizon": "current to 6 months", "direction": "DOMESTIC_AVAILABILITY_CUSHION", "summary": "Trade flows are cushioning domestic beef availability despite tighter cattle head counts.", "triggers": [ { "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "label": "YTD imports +9.9%" }, { "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe", "label": "YTD exports -17.2%" } ], "counter_evidence": "Product mix and imported lean are not fully interchangeable with Choice fed-beef cuts.", "invalidation": "Imports reverse lower and exports recover enough to remove the net availability cushion.", "decision_effect": "NONE" } ], "theses": [ { "thesis_id": "later_head_tightness_near_meat_cushion", "role": "PRIMARY_WORKING_HYPOTHESIS", "title": "Later fed-cattle tightness, buffered near-term beef availability", "horizon": "current through 18 months", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "state": "CURRENT_AVAILABILITY_CUSHIONED", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "cof_placements_head", "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "beef_exports_ytd_cwe" ], "contradictions": [ "cof_on_feed_head", "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs" ], "confirmation": "Later marketings and slaughter tighten after placement cohorts roll forward while meat cushions fade.", "invalidation": "Placements recover or meat availability remains ample enough to prevent the expected tightening.", "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "decision_effect": "NONE", "active_alert_ids": [ "weight_offsets_head_decline", "trade_cushions_domestic_availability" ] }, { "thesis_id": "meat_availability_outlasts_head_shortage", "role": "COMPETING_HYPOTHESIS", "title": "Beef availability stays adequate longer than cattle head counts imply", "horizon": "current through 12 months", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe" ], "contradictions": [ "cof_placements_head", "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots" ], "confirmation": "Weights, imports, dairy-beef supply, or weak exports continue replacing domestic fed-cattle tonnage.", "invalidation": "Weights normalize and trade cushions reverse before placements recover.", "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "decision_effect": "NONE" }, { "thesis_id": "capacity_rationalization_changes_leverage", "role": "COMPETING_HYPOTHESIS", "title": "Processing-capacity rationalization changes packer and feedyard leverage", "horizon": "3-24 months", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "cof_marketings_head", "weekly_fi_slaughter_head" ], "contradictions": [ "No verified plant closure is inferred from margin data alone." ], "confirmation": "Verified capacity exits or sustained shift reductions tighten the hook-to-cattle balance.", "invalidation": "Margins recover and observed capacity remains stable.", "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "decision_effect": "NONE" } ], "source_ledger": [ { "source_id": "USDA_NASS_COF", "source_module": "cattle_on_feed", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/cattle_on_feed_status.json", "source_fingerprint": "d7b31a5908acf3d7d77e18e1119d8360d49d13dbbc411e4be2681195a953004a", "upstream_status": "PASS", "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-24", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 1, "warn_days": 32, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS" }, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "read_only_input": true, "error": null }, { "source_id": "USDA_ERS_TRADE", "source_module": "import_exports", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/import_exports_status.json", "source_fingerprint": "8f240c5e02fb0f07d32da7240dcd1b3ac1cebd3b53b6a049544d8f6541e60cf5", "upstream_status": "PASS", "observed_at_ct": "2026-05", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "read_only_input": true, "error": null }, { "source_id": "USDA_AMS_CEI", "source_module": "ALPHA_PACKER_ECONOMICS_V1", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/packer_economics_status.json", "source_fingerprint": "af0228bc9b2962c3091cc39208a52279ef3afe6eac34cd932f816227f918b100", "upstream_status": "PASS", "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-24 after 15:30 CT", "freshness": { "status": "PASS", "reason": "Latest expected weekday USDA CEI report is present.", "report_date": "2026-07-24", "expected_report_date": "2026-07-24", "calendar_age_days": 0, "business_release_lag": 0, "release_cutoff_ct": "15:45", "weekend_aware": true, "holiday_calendar_note": "Weekday-aware; USDA holiday exceptions may produce WATCH until the next release.", "state": "PASS" }, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "read_only_input": true, "error": null }, { "source_id": "USDA_APHIS", "source_module": "animal_health", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/animal_health_status.json", "source_fingerprint": "5a2b58932cd312ad1e71a6febdfbc60bce3e86e3ef635ecf1982d3ca0ae60ed4", "upstream_status": "PASS", "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-24", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "read_only_input": true, "error": null }, { "source_id": "USDA_AMS_CASH", "source_module": "cash_cattle", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/cash_cattle_status.json", "source_fingerprint": "405b4dd97b45b6f5b74db3686a4fbc34514d0589dcdcd267511a43a6aff1df7e", "upstream_status": "PASS", "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-24 daily publication", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "pass_max_days": 2, "watch_max_days": 5, "state": "PASS" }, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "read_only_input": true, "error": null }, { "source_id": "USDA_AMS_BOXED_TUESDAY", "source_module": "boxed_beef_tuesday_history", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/boxed_beef/boxed_beef_tuesday_history.json", "source_fingerprint": "121b8a77d62ff30b5f1afd71ffe2611cc9375d4ecb3ae97aa333016d12fc05cf", "upstream_status": "PASS", "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-21", "freshness": { "state": "PASS", "reason": "Canonical Tuesday afternoon LM_XB403 history is current and complete.", "latest_report_date": "2026-07-21", "status_report_date": "2026-07-21", "expected_latest_tuesday": "2026-07-21", "last_refresh_time_ct": "2026-07-22T14:20:16.416347-05:00", "status_source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/boxed_beef/boxed_beef_tuesday_history_status.json", "status_source_fingerprint": "e6bdbe15f174d0f6951242a4ce2db7c4bdb48a31f51f50442c7464b635d9a8de", "status_error": null }, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "read_only_input": true, "error": null }, { "source_id": "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT", "source_module": "weekly_kill_weights", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/weekly_kill_weights.csv", "source_fingerprint": "912d198223b39c4c92c9eb9d1adb323b18c6bcd146b9013408a11a29aafa3e95", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-17", "freshness": { "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED", "imported_at": "2026-07-25T21:30:41" }, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "read_only_input": true, "error": null }, { "source_id": "USDA_ERS_FEEDER_SUPPLY", "source_module": "ers_feeder_supply", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/ers_livestock_domestic_data/livestock-data-machine-readable-files/FeederCattleSuppliesOutsideFeedlots.csv", "source_fingerprint": "32d71256ffb42497325ea439db5ed6a00752be99019c9ab73562950ad87f581b", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "observed_at_ct": "2026-04-01", "freshness": { "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED", "cadence": "Quarterly USDA ERS feeder supply" }, "value_kind": "DERIVED", "read_only_input": true, "error": null }, { "source_id": "USDA_ERS_HERD_REPLACEMENT", "source_module": "ers_heifer_replacements", "source_path": "/opt/alpha/imported_data/data/ers_livestock_domestic_data/livestock-data-machine-readable-files/heifersenteringherd.csv", "source_fingerprint": "281e3d55e23156459116f1b342105d36eb78c6d3295597ee52f60c846528960d", "upstream_status": "LOADED", "observed_at_ct": "2026-01-01", "freshness": { "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED", "cadence": "Annual USDA ERS herd replacement" }, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "read_only_input": true, "error": null } ], "revision_ledger": [ { "metric_id": "cof_on_feed_head", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage." }, { "metric_id": "cof_placements_head", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage." }, { "metric_id": "cof_marketings_head", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage." }, { "metric_id": "cof_other_disappearance_head", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage." }, { "metric_id": "cof_less_than_600_lbs", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage." }, { "metric_id": "cof_600_699_lbs", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage." }, { "metric_id": "cof_700_799_lbs", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage." }, { "metric_id": "cof_800_899_lbs", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage." }, { "metric_id": "cof_900_999_lbs", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage." }, { "metric_id": "cof_1000_lbs_and_greater", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage." }, { "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage." }, { "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage." }, { "metric_id": "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage." }, { "metric_id": "weekly_head_count_effect_mil_lbs", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage." }, { "metric_id": "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage." }, { "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage." }, { "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage." }, { "metric_id": "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage." }, { "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage." }, { "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage." }, { "metric_id": "blended_live_cash", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage." }, { "metric_id": "tuesday_cutout_average_change_pct", "vintage_date": "2026-07-21", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage." }, { "metric_id": "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots", "vintage_date": "2026-04-01", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage." }, { "metric_id": "intended_heifer_replacements", "vintage_date": "2026-01-01", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "detail": "Value and period match the prior frozen vintage." } ], "validation": { "all_units_typed": true, "point_in_time_only": true, "semantic_vintages": true, "semantic_vintage_parse_strict": true, "semantic_vintage_chain_validation": "PASS_WITH_LEGACY_PREFIX", 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"model_name": "Structural Futures V2 fixed-contract COF response", "model_version": "cof-fixed-contract-ridge-v2.1.0", "model_type": "Expanding-window ridge regression with fixed-contract event responses", "lifecycle_status": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "owner": "Alpha Structural Radar research boundary", "purpose": "Estimate a conditional fixed-contract price response after a Cattle on Feed release.", "intended_uses": [ "research", "hypothesis tracking", "forward accountability", "contract-window comparison" ], "prohibited_uses": [ "WOW Command input", "official decision input", "live trading", "position sizing", "intrinsic fair-value claim" ], "target": "Nth actual later RTH last-trade close versus same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close before the after-close COF release; these are not official CME settlements.", "target_definition": "Nth actual later RTH last-trade close versus same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close before the after-close COF release; these are not official CME settlements.", "prediction_population": "Highest-volume unexpired Live Cattle fixed contract and the next two listed expiries on the release date.", "horizons": [ "d1", "d5", "d20", "d40" ], "horizon_definitions": { "d1": "1 actual later fixed-contract session(s)", "d5": "5 actual later fixed-contract session(s)", "d20": "20 actual later fixed-contract session(s)", "d40": "40 actual later fixed-contract session(s)" }, "training_cutoff": "Strictly before each prediction release; every included label must also have completed before that release.", "validation_protocol": "Expanding-window, point-in-time walk-forward evaluation against an expanding-mean diagnostic baseline.", "validation_method": "Expanding-window point-in-time walk-forward", "features": [ "on_feed_yoy_delta_pp", "placements_yoy_delta_pp", "marketings_yoy_delta_pp", "activity_month_season_sin", "activity_month_season_cos" ], "feature_families": [ "USDA COF year-over-year release values", "activity-month seasonality" ], "data_sources": [ "USDA NASS COF as-released event rows", "Databento Live Cattle fixed-contract daily bars" ], "training": { "method": "Ridge regression fit only to fully labeled events available before each prediction timestamp.", "minimum_train_events": 24, "walk_forward_evaluation": true, "fixed_contract_only": true, "continuous_or_stitched_prices_used": false }, "baseline": "Expanding historical mean inside V2 walk-forward diagnostics; zero-change baseline in the immutable forward registry.", "leakage_controls": [ "As-released report values only", "Latest event excluded from training", "Training labels must complete before prediction", "Forward registry rejects horizons already mature at first issuance" ], "evaluation_metrics": [ "MAE", "baseline-relative MAE skill", "directional accuracy", "prediction correlation", "80% interval coverage" ], "known_limitations": [ "No contemporaneous consensus-surprise feature", "Conditional report response is not all-factor intrinsic value", "Weekday target scheduling is conservative and is reconciled to actual fixed-contract sessions at resolution", "No demonstrated forward predictive edge yet", "No transaction costs, slippage, liquidity, or executable strategy economics" ], "uncertainty": "Residual 10th/90th-percentile response interval where enough walk-forward residuals exist.", "reproducibility": "Each issuance freezes the implementation SHA-256, fitted ridge coefficients/normalization/penalty, exact training-row identity hash, event features, source hashes, and model-spec hash.", "fairness_scope": "Not applicable to people; monitor contract-month and market-regime coverage instead.", "monitoring": { "immutable_forecast_book": true, "open_outcomes_retained": true, "baseline_relative_scorecard": true, "calibration_minimum_unique_report_releases": 36 }, "calibration_policy": "No calibrated claim until at least 36 independent genuinely forward report releases and at least 10 unique releases per claimed horizon; correlated role-by-horizon cells and same-report revisions do not count as independent releases. Current status remains NOT_CALIBRATED.", "promotion_criteria": [ "At least 36 independent genuinely forward report releases", "At least 10 unique report releases per claimed horizon", "Positive baseline-relative MAE skill with stable directional evidence", "Independent governance review; never automatic promotion" ], "promotion_gate_passed": false, "governance": { "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "auto_promotion_path": false, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "max_points": 0, "decision_effect": "NONE", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" } }, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "max_points": 0, "decision_effect": "NONE", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "forecast_registry": { "schema_version": "alpha.structural_forecast_registry.v1", "module": "ALPHA_STRUCTURAL_FORECAST_REGISTRY", "status": "PASS", "mode": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "research_only": true, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "calibration": { "status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "resolved_forward_forecast_count": 0, "unique_resolved_report_release_count": 0, "minimum_unique_report_releases": 36, "minimum_unique_releases_per_horizon": 10, "eligible_for_predictive_claim": false, "reason": "Forward outcomes are being accumulated; no predictive edge is established." }, "immutability": { "append_only": true, "existing_records_mutated": false, "deterministic_forecast_ids": true, "freeze_hash_algorithm": "SHA256_CANONICAL_JSON", "ledger_validation": "PASS", "hash_chain_validation": "PASS", "persisted_checkpoint_validation": "PASS", "checkpoint_prior_state": "PASS", "ledger_head_hash": "e34d1639569bcfecb6be1333be9ce21f7c349bf56b26d7ff0aca0e27224b1a58", "single_file_tail_truncation_detection": "PERSISTED_SIBLING_STATUS_CHECKPOINT", "external_trust_anchor_present": false, "coordinated_privileged_tamper_protection": false, "integrity_scope": "Record modification and non-tail deletion are hash-chain evident. 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these are not official CME settlements.", "target_definition": "Nth actual later RTH last-trade close versus same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close before the after-close COF release; these are not official CME settlements.", "prediction_population": "Highest-volume unexpired Live Cattle fixed contract and the next two listed expiries on the release date.", "horizons": [ "d1", "d5", "d20", "d40" ], "horizon_definitions": { "d1": "1 actual later fixed-contract session(s)", "d5": "5 actual later fixed-contract session(s)", "d20": "20 actual later fixed-contract session(s)", "d40": "40 actual later fixed-contract session(s)" }, "training_cutoff": "Strictly before each prediction release; every included label must also have completed before that release.", "validation_protocol": "Expanding-window, point-in-time walk-forward evaluation against an expanding-mean diagnostic baseline.", "validation_method": "Expanding-window point-in-time walk-forward", "features": [ "on_feed_yoy_delta_pp", "placements_yoy_delta_pp", "marketings_yoy_delta_pp", "activity_month_season_sin", "activity_month_season_cos" ], "feature_families": [ "USDA COF year-over-year release values", "activity-month seasonality" ], "data_sources": [ "USDA NASS COF as-released event rows", "Databento Live Cattle fixed-contract daily bars" ], "training": { "method": "Ridge regression fit only to fully labeled events available before each prediction timestamp.", "minimum_train_events": 24, "walk_forward_evaluation": true, "fixed_contract_only": true, "continuous_or_stitched_prices_used": false }, "baseline": "Expanding historical mean inside V2 walk-forward diagnostics; 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"SFR-191BE50CAE29E1DC3589A9C1", "issued_at_ct": "2026-07-24T16:50:11.302156-05:00", "contract": "LEG7", "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2027-02", "horizon": "d40", "target_date": "2026-09-18T13:05:00-05:00", "predicted_price": 225.25, "expected_return_pct": 0.872795, "interval": [ -4.973402, 7.007314 ], "model_version": "cof-fixed-contract-ridge-v2.1.0", "freeze_fingerprint": "e34d1639569bcfecb6be1333be9ce21f7c349bf56b26d7ff0aca0e27224b1a58", "content_hash": "c18b7e95a31c104f705b6e04d57c0ba7c2f654f8cbff2b34747845eea8330bac", "outcome_status": "OPEN", "outcome": null, "status": "OPEN", "research_only": true, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "max_points": 0, "decision_effect": "NONE", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" } ], "model_card": { "schema_version": "alpha.model_card.structural_futures_v2.v1", "status": "RESEARCH_ONLY_UNVALIDATED", "model_name": "Structural Futures V2 fixed-contract COF response", "model_version": "cof-fixed-contract-ridge-v2.1.0", "model_type": "Expanding-window ridge regression with fixed-contract event responses", "lifecycle_status": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "owner": "Alpha Structural Radar research boundary", "purpose": "Estimate a conditional fixed-contract price response after a Cattle on Feed release.", "intended_uses": [ "research", "hypothesis tracking", "forward accountability", "contract-window comparison" ], "prohibited_uses": [ "WOW Command input", "official decision input", "live trading", "position sizing", "intrinsic fair-value claim" ], "target": "Nth actual later RTH last-trade close versus same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close before the after-close COF release; these are not official CME settlements.", "target_definition": "Nth actual later RTH last-trade close versus same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close before the after-close COF release; these are not official CME settlements.", "prediction_population": "Highest-volume unexpired Live Cattle fixed contract and the next two listed expiries on the release date.", "horizons": [ "d1", "d5", "d20", "d40" ], "horizon_definitions": { "d1": "1 actual later fixed-contract session(s)", "d5": "5 actual later fixed-contract session(s)", "d20": "20 actual later fixed-contract session(s)", "d40": "40 actual later fixed-contract session(s)" }, "training_cutoff": "Strictly before each prediction release; every included label must also have completed before that release.", "validation_protocol": "Expanding-window, point-in-time walk-forward evaluation against an expanding-mean diagnostic baseline.", "validation_method": "Expanding-window point-in-time walk-forward", "features": [ "on_feed_yoy_delta_pp", "placements_yoy_delta_pp", "marketings_yoy_delta_pp", "activity_month_season_sin", "activity_month_season_cos" ], "feature_families": [ "USDA COF year-over-year release values", "activity-month seasonality" ], "data_sources": [ "USDA NASS COF as-released event rows", "Databento Live Cattle fixed-contract daily bars" ], "training": { "method": "Ridge regression fit only to fully labeled events available before each prediction timestamp.", "minimum_train_events": 24, "walk_forward_evaluation": true, "fixed_contract_only": true, "continuous_or_stitched_prices_used": false }, "baseline": "Expanding historical mean inside V2 walk-forward diagnostics; zero-change baseline in the immutable forward registry.", "leakage_controls": [ "As-released report values only", "Latest event excluded from training", "Training labels must complete before prediction", "Forward registry rejects horizons already mature at first issuance" ], "evaluation_metrics": [ "MAE", "baseline-relative MAE skill", "directional accuracy", "prediction correlation", "80% interval coverage" ], "known_limitations": [ "No contemporaneous consensus-surprise feature", "Conditional report response is not all-factor intrinsic value", "Weekday target scheduling is conservative and is reconciled to actual fixed-contract sessions at resolution", "No demonstrated forward predictive edge yet", "No transaction costs, slippage, liquidity, or executable strategy economics" ], "uncertainty": "Residual 10th/90th-percentile response interval where enough walk-forward residuals exist.", "reproducibility": "Each issuance freezes the implementation SHA-256, fitted ridge coefficients/normalization/penalty, exact training-row identity hash, event features, source hashes, and model-spec hash.", "fairness_scope": "Not applicable to people; monitor contract-month and market-regime coverage instead.", "monitoring": { "immutable_forecast_book": true, "open_outcomes_retained": true, "baseline_relative_scorecard": true, "calibration_minimum_unique_report_releases": 36 }, "calibration_policy": "No calibrated claim until at least 36 independent genuinely forward report releases and at least 10 unique releases per claimed horizon; correlated role-by-horizon cells and same-report revisions do not count as independent releases. Current status remains NOT_CALIBRATED.", "promotion_criteria": [ "At least 36 independent genuinely forward report releases", "At least 10 unique report releases per claimed horizon", "Positive baseline-relative MAE skill with stable directional evidence", "Independent governance review; never automatic promotion" ], "promotion_gate_passed": false, "governance": { "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "auto_promotion_path": false, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "max_points": 0, "decision_effect": "NONE", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" } }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "structural_futures_v2": { "schema_version": "alpha.structural_futures.v2", "module": "ALPHA_STRUCTURAL_FUTURES_V2", "status": "PASS", "mode": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "research_only": true, "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "live": false, "decision_effect": "NONE", "wow_command_effect": "NONE", "max_points": 0, "promotion_gate_passed": false, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "headline": "Placement cohorts are mapped to contract windows; price estimates remain conditional and research-only.", "point_in_time_events": { "event_count": 115, "latest_event": { "event_id": "795993", "release_revision_id": "795993@2026-07-24T14:00:00-05:00", "release_date": "2026-07-24", "release_timestamp_ct": "2026-07-24T14:00:00-05:00", "release_timestamp_kind": "RECORDED_SOURCE_TIMESTAMP", "activity_month": "2026-06-01", "availability_rule": "Feature values become available only at the recorded USDA release timestamp.", "observations": [ { "observation_id": "on_feed_yoy_delta_pp", "value": 2.0, "unit": "percentage_point", "value_kind": "OBSERVED_RELEASE", "known_at_ct": "2026-07-24T14:00:00-05:00" }, { "observation_id": "placements_yoy_delta_pp", "value": -3.0, "unit": "percentage_point", "value_kind": "OBSERVED_RELEASE", "known_at_ct": "2026-07-24T14:00:00-05:00" }, { "observation_id": "marketings_yoy_delta_pp", "value": -3.0, "unit": "percentage_point", "value_kind": "OBSERVED_RELEASE", "known_at_ct": "2026-07-24T14:00:00-05:00" }, { "observation_id": "season_sin", "value": 0.0, "unit": "cyclical_component", "value_kind": "DERIVED_FROM_ACTIVITY_MONTH", "known_at_ct": "2026-07-24T14:00:00-05:00" }, { "observation_id": "season_cos", "value": -1.0, "unit": "cyclical_component", "value_kind": "DERIVED_FROM_ACTIVITY_MONTH", "known_at_ct": "2026-07-24T14:00:00-05:00" } ], "provenance": { "source_url": "https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795993/cofd0726.txt", "source_sha256": "f794b52ee157e529650937be610257d9a1fe30ab11b41e17136a637434fae049" }, "research_only": true, "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false }, "as_of_cutoff_ct": "2026-07-25T16:50:22.548744-05:00", "feature_policy": "Only values printed in the as-released row plus activity-month season terms are features.", "consensus_surprise_available": false, "consensus_surprise_used": false }, 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"delta_head_equivalent": 819.7 }, { "symbol": "LEG7", "contract_month": "2027-02", "window_day_share": 0.811475, "current_head_equivalent": 263729.5, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 259672.1, "delta_head_equivalent": 4057.4 }, { "symbol": "LEJ7", "contract_month": "2027-04", "window_day_share": 0.02459, "current_head_equivalent": 7991.8, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 7868.9, "delta_head_equivalent": 123.0 } ] }, { "bucket_id": "600_699_lbs", "current_head": 225000, "prior_year_head": 235000, "delta_head": -10000, "delta_pct": -4.255, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "minimum": 170, "maximum": 230, "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION" }, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-11-18", "latest": "2027-02-15" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-12-06", "p50": "2027-01-01", "p90": "2027-01-28", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "contract_exposures": [ { "symbol": "LEZ6", "contract_month": 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"9b8cd16386416c75739d6e322b25bf2adac026cf29d7dc6a387ea217e163c4d4", "artifact_sha256": "782eb89b4917b61817a3f8c9046fc48074f88523ca11a1548887dd79fe0d5ad2" }, "walk_forward": { "n_oos": 51, "mae_return_pct": 3.607299, "baseline_mae_return_pct": 3.692509, "mae_skill_vs_expanding_mean": 0.023076, "zero_return_baseline_mae_pct": 3.991177, "mae_skill_vs_zero_return": 0.096182, "directional_accuracy": 0.627451, "prediction_correlation": -0.025235, "interval_80_coverage": 0.583333, "interval_coverage_n": 36 }, "gate_checks": { "n_oos_at_least_36": true, "mae_skill_at_least_5pct": false, "beats_zero_return_baseline": true, "directional_accuracy_at_least_52pct": true, "prediction_correlation_at_least_0_10": false, "interval_80_coverage_65_to_90pct": false }, "promotion_gate_passed": false, "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "pre_report_close": 223.3, "predicted_response_pct": 0.872795, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -4.973402, 7.007314 ], "conditional_fair_value": 225.25, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 212.2, 238.95 ], "fair_value_definition": "Same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close multiplied by the estimated report-response return; not an official settlement, intrinsic value, or promoted forecast.", "latest_observed_outcome": { "target_date": null, "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true } } ], "contract_estimates": [ { "contract_id": "LE-2026-10", "symbol": "LEV6", "role": "near", "cohort_timing_exposure": { "symbol": "LEV6", "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 334254.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 346877.0, "delta_head_equivalent": -12623.0, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "pricing_authority": "NONE" }, "horizons": [ { "horizon": "d1", "status": "PASS", "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "predicted_response_pct": 0.384167, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -0.825625, 1.358383 ], "conditional_fair_value": 223.425, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 220.725, 225.6 ], "promotion_gate_passed": false, "latest_observed_outcome": { "target_date": null, "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true } }, { "horizon": "d5", "status": "PASS", "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "predicted_response_pct": 0.391751, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -2.016041, 2.55228 ], "conditional_fair_value": 223.45, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 218.1, 228.25 ], "promotion_gate_passed": false, "latest_observed_outcome": { "target_date": null, "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true } }, { "horizon": "d20", "status": "PASS", "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "predicted_response_pct": 0.320481, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -3.521256, 6.092773 ], "conditional_fair_value": 223.3, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 214.75, 236.125 ], "promotion_gate_passed": false, "latest_observed_outcome": { "target_date": null, "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true } }, { "horizon": "d40", "status": "PASS", "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "predicted_response_pct": 0.802892, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -3.24287, 7.775708 ], "conditional_fair_value": 224.35, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 215.35, 239.875 ], "promotion_gate_passed": false, "latest_observed_outcome": { "target_date": null, "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true } } ] }, { "contract_id": "LE-2026-12", "symbol": "LEZ6", "role": "mid", "cohort_timing_exposure": { "symbol": "LEZ6", "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 611655.7, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 638721.3, "delta_head_equivalent": -27065.6, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "pricing_authority": "NONE" }, "horizons": [ { "horizon": "d1", "status": "PASS", "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "predicted_response_pct": 0.389117, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -0.699611, 1.153407 ], "conditional_fair_value": 223.15, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 220.725, 224.85 ], "promotion_gate_passed": false, "latest_observed_outcome": { "target_date": null, "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true } }, { "horizon": "d5", "status": "PASS", "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "predicted_response_pct": 0.402467, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.92523, 2.359281 ], "conditional_fair_value": 223.175, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 218.0, 227.525 ], "promotion_gate_passed": false, "latest_observed_outcome": { "target_date": null, "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true } }, { "horizon": "d20", "status": "PASS", "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "predicted_response_pct": 0.409627, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -3.959491, 5.755716 ], "conditional_fair_value": 223.175, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 213.475, 235.075 ], "promotion_gate_passed": false, "latest_observed_outcome": { "target_date": null, "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true } }, { "horizon": "d40", "status": "PASS", "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "predicted_response_pct": 0.644537, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -3.745429, 7.479223 ], "conditional_fair_value": 223.7, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 213.95, 238.9 ], "promotion_gate_passed": false, "latest_observed_outcome": { "target_date": null, "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true } } ] }, { "contract_id": "LE-2027-02", "symbol": "LEG7", "role": "deferred", "cohort_timing_exposure": { "symbol": "LEG7", "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 402213.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 404434.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -2221.3, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "pricing_authority": "NONE" }, "horizons": [ { "horizon": "d1", "status": "PASS", "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "predicted_response_pct": 0.389248, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -0.492242, 1.019313 ], "conditional_fair_value": 224.175, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 222.2, 225.575 ], "promotion_gate_passed": false, "latest_observed_outcome": { "target_date": null, "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true } }, { "horizon": "d5", "status": "PASS", "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "predicted_response_pct": 0.473488, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.821666, 2.521559 ], "conditional_fair_value": 224.35, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 219.225, 228.925 ], "promotion_gate_passed": false, "latest_observed_outcome": { "target_date": null, "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true } }, { "horizon": "d20", "status": "PASS", "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "predicted_response_pct": 0.455863, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -2.421714, 5.803479 ], "conditional_fair_value": 224.325, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 217.9, 236.25 ], "promotion_gate_passed": false, "latest_observed_outcome": { "target_date": null, "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true } }, { "horizon": "d40", "status": "PASS", "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "predicted_response_pct": 0.872795, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -4.973402, 7.007314 ], "conditional_fair_value": 225.25, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 212.2, 238.95 ], "promotion_gate_passed": false, "latest_observed_outcome": { "target_date": null, "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true } } ] } ], "statistical_gate_pass_count": 0, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "curve_twist_model_active": false, "curve_twist_pricing_authority": "NONE", "fair_value_limitation": "Conditional report-response price is not an all-factor intrinsic fair value and cannot be promoted by this module.", "multiplicity_policy": "Twelve role-by-horizon candidates are exposed together; no familywise or FDR gate has passed, so operational promotion is prohibited.", "known_limitations": [ "Historical price references are Databento RTH last-trade closes, not official CME settlements.", "Daily source rows do not retain the final bar timestamp; pre-release ordering relies on the scheduled 13:05 CT RTH close preceding the recorded 14:00 CT COF release.", "No licensed analyst-consensus surprise series is available; report features are printed YoY levels, not consensus surprises.", "Role, horizon, and regime heterogeneity remain research limitations; all operational gates stay closed." ] }, "source_ledger": [ { "source_id": "USDA_NASS_COF_AS_RELEASED", "path": "/opt/alpha_current/data/cattle_on_feed/report_events.csv", "sha256": "9e0f6663b9f5b64cae55c5d58590d4b4c15ff29c0758ab88650b15c8bf01f3bd", "read_only": true, "rows": 115 }, { "source_id": "DATABENTO_LE_FIXED_CONTRACT_DAILY", "path": "/opt/alpha_current/data/cattle_on_feed/le_fixed_ohlcv_1d.parquet", "sha256": "ba420ff0515470a8f5ceab9447b9881b3eb38d99b2eca783ec170622893abb47", "read_only": true, "rows": 14323 } ], "validation": { "data_status": { "event_rows": 115, "fixed_contract_rows": 14323, "response_panel_rows": 234, "first_event_date": "2017-01-27", "latest_event_date": "2026-07-24", "price_first_date": "2020-01-02", "price_last_date": "2026-07-24", "latest_event_price_reference_available": true }, "point_in_time_release_timestamps": true, "events_filtered_to_as_of_cutoff": true, "price_rows_filtered_to_as_of_cutoff": true, "price_rows_unique_by_date_contract": true, "latest_event_excluded_from_training": true, "all_training_labels_completed_before_prediction": true, "cohort_reconciliations_passed": true, "model_gate_is_not_operational_gate": true, "price_reference_is_official_settlement": false, "price_reference_timestamp_retained": false, "historical_original_corrections_complete": false, "corrections_after_response_anchor_excluded": true, "historical_correction_policy": "Recorded same-date revisions are cutoff-aware. Later-date corrections are excluded from the report-response panel so they cannot be paired with an already-observed original-report return path; displaced originals are not guaranteed recoverable for every historical USDA correction.", "numeric_forecast_policy": "No estimate is emitted with insufficient prior history; no model estimate affects WOW or decisions." }, "errors": [], "semantic_fingerprint": "75c3efb1b3ea7175b6b8c193004dcef47d858e71a5368df671a59097f92a5e61" }, "system_quality_audit": { "schema_version": "alpha.system_quality_audit.v1", "rubric_id": "ALPHA_SYSTEM_QUALITY_NON_PROFITABILITY_V1", "scope": "SYSTEM_DESIGN_DATA_INTEGRITY_GOVERNANCE_AND_ACCOUNTABILITY", "explicit_exclusions": [ "predictive profitability", "tradable edge", "live execution quality", "risk-adjusted returns" ], "dimensions": [ { "dimension_id": "SOURCE_PROVENANCE", "label": "Source provenance and semantic integrity", "weight": 15, "earned": 15.0, "status": "PASS", "evidence": [ { "criterion": "At least eight unique structural sources have explicit non-stale freshness, observed-at values, and fingerprints", "passed": true, "points": 3.0, "max_points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Every base ledger row is identified, fingerprinted, and read-only", "passed": true, "points": 3.0, "max_points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Both required V2 sources are nonempty, read-only, and SHA-256 fingerprinted", "passed": true, "points": 3.0, "max_points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Base COF and V2 latest releases align, and the fixed-contract panel is current", "passed": true, "points": 3.0, "max_points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Base structural vintages parse strictly, checkpoint tail loss, and chain new semantic records", "passed": true, "points": 3.0, "max_points": 3.0 } ] }, { "dimension_id": "POINT_IN_TIME", "label": "Point-in-time and leakage controls", "weight": 15, "earned": 12.0, "status": "PARTIAL", "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Events and prices are filtered to the as-of cutoff", "passed": true, "points": 4.0, "max_points": 4.0 }, { "criterion": "Training labels complete before prediction and latest event is excluded", "passed": true, "points": 4.0, "max_points": 4.0 }, { "criterion": "As-released event timestamps are retained", "passed": true, "points": 4.0, "max_points": 4.0 }, { "criterion": "Daily price reference retains a final-bar timestamp", "passed": false, "points": 0, "max_points": 1.5 }, { "criterion": "Historical original/correction pairs are complete", "passed": false, "points": 0, "max_points": 1.5 } ], "limitation": "Capped at 12/15: the daily panel lacks a retained final-bar timestamp and historical original/correction completeness is not guaranteed." }, { "dimension_id": "RECONCILIATION", "label": "Accounting and reconciliation", "weight": 10, "earned": 10.0, "status": "PASS", "evidence": [ { "criterion": "All base observations are typed and reconciliations recompute within explicit units/tolerances", "passed": true, "points": 5.0, "max_points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Placement cohort-to-contract reconciliations recompute within head tolerances", "passed": true, "points": 5.0, "max_points": 5.0 } ] }, { "dimension_id": "CONTRACT_HORIZONS", "label": "Contract and horizon specificity", "weight": 10, "earned": 10.0, "status": "PASS", "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Fixed contracts are used without continuous stitching", "passed": true, "points": 5.0, "max_points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "A unique, fully estimated near/mid/deferred D1/D5/D20/D40 fixed-contract grid is present", "passed": true, "points": 5.0, "max_points": 5.0 } ] }, { "dimension_id": "MODEL_GOVERNANCE", "label": "Model governance without promotion leakage", "weight": 10, "earned": 10.0, "status": "PASS", "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Operational promotion is false", "passed": true, "points": 2.5, "max_points": 2.5 }, { "criterion": "Predictive edge remains explicitly unproven", "passed": true, "points": 2.5, "max_points": 2.5 }, { "criterion": "Calibration remains explicitly incomplete", "passed": true, "points": 2.5, "max_points": 2.5 }, { "criterion": "Pricing authority and execution points are zero", "passed": true, "points": 2.5, "max_points": 2.5 } ] }, { "dimension_id": "FORWARD_ACCOUNTABILITY", "label": "Immutable forward forecast accountability", "weight": 15, "earned": 9.0, "status": "PARTIAL", "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Append-only registry freeze hashes validate", "passed": true, "points": 2.0, "max_points": 2.0 }, { "criterion": "Prior sibling checkpoint detects single-file tail loss", "passed": true, "points": 1.0, "max_points": 1.0 }, { "criterion": "An external protected/WORM ledger anchor exists", "passed": false, "points": 0, "max_points": 1.0 }, { "criterion": "Forecast IDs are deterministic and issuance is deduplicated", "passed": true, "points": 3.0, "max_points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Open and matured-unresolved outcomes remain explicit and unscored", "passed": true, "points": 3.0, "max_points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "At least 36 independent forward report releases and 10 unique releases per claimed horizon are resolved", "passed": false, "points": 0, "max_points": 5.0 } ], "limitation": "0 correlated forecast cells across 0 independent report releases are resolved. Same-report roles, horizons, and revisions do not inflate the independent-release threshold. The sibling checkpoint is best-effort and no external WORM anchor exists; accountability is partial and predictive profitability is not graded." }, { "dimension_id": "OPERATIONAL_ISOLATION", "label": "Operational and WOW Command isolation", "weight": 15, "earned": 15.0, "status": "PASS", "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Base radar has no decision or WOW effect", "passed": true, "points": 5.0, "max_points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Registry writes only below the sibling radar root and the required runtime permission probe passes", "passed": true, "points": 5.0, "max_points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "No live-trade use, auto-promotion, or execution points", "passed": true, "points": 5.0, "max_points": 5.0 } ] }, { "dimension_id": "TRANSPARENCY", "label": "Model-card and baseline transparency", "weight": 10, "earned": 10.0, "status": "PASS", "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Complete model card states purpose, target, data, leakage controls, limitations, and governance", "passed": true, "points": 5.0, "max_points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Scorecard names a frozen baseline and baseline-relative primary metric", "passed": true, "points": 5.0, "max_points": 5.0 } ] } ], "score": { "earned": 91.0, "maximum": 100.0, "normalized_10": 9.1, "grade": "A-" }, "critical_gates": { "overall_health_gate": true, "source_alignment_and_price_freshness_gate": true, "point_in_time_gate": true, "reconciliation_gate": true, "immutable_registry_gate": true, "runtime_permission_probe_gate": true, "decision_isolation_gate": true, "wow_isolation_gate": true, "no_operational_promotion_gate": true, "no_predictive_skill_claim_gate": true }, "critical_gates_passed": true, "eligibility": { "system_quality_grade_eligible": true, "status": "ELIGIBLE_SYSTEM_QUALITY_ONLY", "predictive_profitability_grade_eligible": false, "operational_promotion_eligible": false }, "accountability_status": "PARTIAL", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "profitability_claim": false, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "max_points": 0, "decision_effect": "NONE", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "semantic_fingerprint": "f02789ac9dd9e985a8c4fb4ad9d4bf44d1c7aaf717769666ce34abbe796354c4", "history": { "previous_fingerprint": "9edd1121961a8c58bcb0c7057503a37a5ff77f3397e8b49fcf250f1926819fb9", "semantic_changed": true, "changed_metric_ids": [], "vintage_recorded": true, "vintage_count": 32 }, "previous_vintage_record_hash": "a93a5391d74f99e6441494dfb5726db34bebad47af7cf1687408a2bc86b66776", "vintage_record_hash": "046bcb6139e28d74876b49b3c511e1bc0d590e660997e28b9461289eaffab934" } ] }