{ "schema_version": "1.0.0", "module": "ALPHA_STRUCTURAL_RADAR_V1", "status": "PASS", "mode": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "generated_at_ct": "2026-07-25T16:50:22.548744-05:00", "decision_use": "CONTEXT", "max_points": 0, "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "live_trade_status": "DISABLED", "promotion_gate_passed": false, "futures_implications": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESES", "separation_contract": { "official_decision_effect": "NONE", "wow_command_effect": "NONE", "writes_decision_outputs": false, "reads_decision_outputs": false, "calls_decision_components": false, "auto_promotion_path": false, "source_root_read_only": "/opt/alpha_current", "radar_write_root": "/opt/alpha_structural_radar", "write_allowlist": [ "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs/structural_radar_status.json", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/outputs/structural_radar_history.json", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/data/structural_radar/vintages.jsonl", "/opt/alpha_structural_radar/state/structural_radar.lock" ] }, "headline": { "state": "CURRENT_AVAILABILITY_CUSHIONED", "text": "Current inventory and meat-availability offsets are more visible than a later cattle shortage.", "what_changed": "No semantic structural change since the prior frozen vintage.", "horizon": "current through 6 months", "confidence": "HIGH", "dominant_stage": "current_inventory_and_pounds" }, "balance_sheet": { "as_of": "2026-07-24", "status": "RECONCILED", "summary": { "status": "RECONCILED", "observation_count": 24, "source_count": 9, "source_ledger_row_count": 9, "reconciliation_pass_count": 4, "reconciliation_count": 4, "slaughter_yoy_pct": -7.4074, "dressed_weight_yoy_pct": 2.662, "beef_supply_change_pct": -5.0491, "weight_offset_of_head_decline_pct": 33.28, "imports_ytd_change_pct": 9.9, "exports_ytd_change_pct": -17.2 }, "periods": [ { "period": "Current feedlot inventory", "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS", "stages": [ { "metric_id": "cof_on_feed_head", "label": "Cattle on feed", "stage": "feedlot_inventory", "value": 11370000, "unit": "head", "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 1, "warn_days": 32, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS" }, "yoy_pct": 2.0, "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current fed-cattle inventory.", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "metadata": {} } ] }, { "period": "Incoming placement pipeline", "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS", "stages": [ { "metric_id": "cof_placements_head", "label": "Monthly placements", "stage": "incoming_pipeline", "value": 1399000, "unit": "head", "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 1, "warn_days": 32, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS" }, "yoy_pct": -3.0, "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Incoming fed-cattle pipeline.", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "metadata": {} }, { "metric_id": "cof_less_than_600_lbs", "label": "Placements under 600 lb", "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "value": 325000, "unit": "head", "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 1, "warn_days": 32, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS" }, "yoy_pct": null, "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "metadata": {} }, { "metric_id": "cof_600_699_lbs", "label": "Placements 600-699 lb", "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "value": 225000, "unit": "head", "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 1, "warn_days": 32, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS" }, "yoy_pct": null, "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "metadata": {} }, { "metric_id": "cof_700_799_lbs", "label": "Placements 700-799 lb", "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "value": 300000, "unit": "head", "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 1, "warn_days": 32, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS" }, "yoy_pct": null, "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "metadata": {} }, { "metric_id": "cof_800_899_lbs", "label": "Placements 800-899 lb", "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "value": 309000, "unit": "head", "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 1, "warn_days": 32, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS" }, "yoy_pct": null, "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "metadata": {} }, { "metric_id": "cof_900_999_lbs", "label": "Placements 900-999 lb", "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "value": 160000, "unit": "head", "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 1, "warn_days": 32, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS" }, "yoy_pct": null, "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "metadata": {} }, { "metric_id": "cof_1000_lbs_and_greater", "label": "Placements 1,000+ lb", "stage": "placement_weight_cohorts", "value": 80000, "unit": "head", "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 1, "warn_days": 32, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS" }, "yoy_pct": null, "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Placement weight cohort; timing implications remain descriptive until a validated days-on-feed model exists.", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "metadata": {} }, { "metric_id": "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots", "label": "Feeder cattle outside feedlots", "stage": "feeder_supply", "value": 18776.97, "unit": "thousand_head", "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-04-01", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_FEEDER_SUPPLY" ], "freshness": { "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED", "cadence": "Quarterly USDA ERS feeder supply" }, "yoy_pct": 2.2631, "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "USDA ERS-derived feeder-cattle reservoir outside feedlots; lower inventory can constrain future placements.", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "metadata": {} } ] }, { "period": "Fed-cattle outflow and meat production", "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS", "stages": [ { "metric_id": "cof_marketings_head", "label": "Monthly marketings", "stage": "fed_outflow", "value": 1661000, "unit": "head", "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 1, "warn_days": 32, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS" }, "yoy_pct": -3.0, "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Fed-cattle outflow toward slaughter.", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "metadata": {} }, { "metric_id": "cof_other_disappearance_head", "label": "Other disappearance", "stage": "fed_outflow", "value": 50000, "unit": "head", "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24", "source_ids": [ "USDA_NASS_COF" ], "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 1, "warn_days": 32, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS" }, "yoy_pct": -6.0, "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Non-marketing feedlot disappearance.", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "metadata": {} }, { "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head", "label": "Weekly federally inspected slaughter", "stage": "slaughter", "value": 525000.0, "unit": "head", "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "freshness": { "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED", "imported_at": "2026-07-25T21:30:41" }, "yoy_pct": -7.4074, "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Observed weekly cattle head throughput.", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "metadata": {} }, { "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "label": "Average dressed weight", "stage": "yield", "value": 887.0, "unit": "lb_per_head", "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "freshness": { "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED", "imported_at": "2026-07-25T21:30:41" }, "yoy_pct": 2.662, "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Pounds produced per slaughtered animal.", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "metadata": {} }, { "metric_id": "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs", "label": "Weekly beef production", "stage": "meat_output", "value": 464.5, "unit": "million_lb", "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "freshness": { "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED", "imported_at": "2026-07-25T21:30:41" }, "yoy_pct": -5.0491, "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Observed weekly beef output combines head throughput and carcass yield.", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "metadata": {} }, { "metric_id": "weekly_head_count_effect_mil_lbs", "label": "Head-count contribution to weekly production change", "stage": "production_bridge", "value": -36.288, "unit": "million_lb", "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "freshness": { "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED", "imported_at": "2026-07-25T21:30:41" }, "yoy_pct": null, "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Counterfactual pounds effect holding year-ago dressed weight constant.", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "metadata": {} }, { "metric_id": "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "label": "Dressed-weight contribution to weekly production change", "stage": "production_bridge", "value": 12.075, "unit": "million_lb", "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-17", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_WEEKLY_KILL_WEIGHT" ], "freshness": { "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED", "imported_at": "2026-07-25T21:30:41" }, "yoy_pct": null, "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Incremental pounds attributable to the dressed-weight change at current slaughter.", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "metadata": {} } ] }, { "period": "Trade and domestic availability", "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS", "stages": [ { "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "label": "Year-to-date beef imports", "stage": "trade_availability", "value": 2754566570.58, "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "yoy_pct": 9.9, "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Imported beef adds to domestic carcass-weight-equivalent availability.", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "metadata": { "ytd_through_month": 5, "ytd_comparable": true } }, { "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe", "label": "Year-to-date beef exports", "stage": "trade_availability", "value": 978518541.27, "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "yoy_pct": -17.2, "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Exported beef removes product from domestic availability while reflecting foreign demand.", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "metadata": { "ytd_through_month": 5, "ytd_comparable": true } }, { "metric_id": "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe", "label": "Year-to-date net beef imports", "stage": "trade_availability", "value": 1776048029.31, "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-05", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_TRADE" ], "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "yoy_pct": null, "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Imports less exports; this is a product-availability measure, not a fed-cattle-equivalent count.", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "metadata": {} }, { "metric_id": "tuesday_cutout_average_change_pct", "label": "Tuesday Choice/Select average weekly change", "stage": "wholesale_demand", "value": -2.3381, "unit": "percent", "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-21", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_BOXED_TUESDAY" ], "freshness": { "state": "PASS", "reason": "Canonical Tuesday afternoon LM_XB403 history is current and complete.", "latest_report_date": "2026-07-21", "status_report_date": "2026-07-21", "expected_latest_tuesday": "2026-07-21", "last_refresh_time_ct": "2026-07-22T14:20:16.416347-05:00", "status_source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/boxed_beef/boxed_beef_tuesday_history_status.json", "status_source_fingerprint": "e6bdbe15f174d0f6951242a4ce2db7c4bdb48a31f51f50442c7464b635d9a8de", "status_error": null }, "yoy_pct": null, "change_pct": -2.3381, "economic_read": "Weekly wholesale movement; descriptive context only because its futures validation gate has not passed.", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "metadata": {} } ] }, { "period": "Capacity, cash, herd, and policy context", "value_kind": "MIXED_TYPED_OBSERVATIONS", "stages": [ { "metric_id": "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "label": "USDA CEI gross packer spread", "stage": "processing_economics", "value": 3.6563, "unit": "usd_per_cwt_carcass", "value_kind": "DERIVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_CEI" ], "freshness": { "status": "PASS", "reason": "Latest expected weekday USDA CEI report is present.", "report_date": "2026-07-24", "expected_report_date": "2026-07-24", "calendar_age_days": 0, "business_release_lag": 0, "release_cutoff_ct": "15:45", "weekend_aware": true, "holiday_calendar_note": "Weekday-aware; USDA holiday exceptions may produce WATCH until the next release.", "state": "PASS" }, "yoy_pct": null, "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Standardized box-minus-live operating-spread proxy; not company net income and not a futures timing signal.", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "metadata": {} }, { "metric_id": "southern_livestock_ports", "label": "Southern livestock port status", "stage": "biological_policy", "value": "CLOSED", "unit": "status", "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24", "source_ids": [ "USDA_APHIS" ], "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "yoy_pct": null, "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current operating status constrains or restores feeder-cattle inflow; duration and price impact are not assumed.", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "metadata": {} }, { "metric_id": "blended_live_cash", "label": "Blended live cash cattle", "stage": "cash_transmission", "value": 230.59, "unit": "usd_per_cwt_live", "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-07-24", "source_ids": [ "USDA_AMS_CASH" ], "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "pass_max_days": 2, "watch_max_days": 5, "state": "PASS" }, "yoy_pct": null, "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Current cash transmission and feedyard/packer leverage context.", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "metadata": { "change_vs_last_week_usd_per_cwt": -8.21 } }, { "metric_id": "intended_heifer_replacements", "label": "Intended heifer replacements", "stage": "breeding_herd", "value": 8618.8, "unit": "thousand_head", "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "vintage_date": "2026-01-01", "source_ids": [ "USDA_ERS_HERD_REPLACEMENT" ], "freshness": { "state": "SOURCE_REPORTED", "cadence": "Annual USDA ERS herd replacement" }, "yoy_pct": 0.361, "change_pct": null, "economic_read": "Replacement intentions inform herd rebuilding capacity; they do not guarantee retained females or calf-crop growth.", "revision_status": "UNCHANGED", "metadata": {} } ] } ], "reconciliations": [ { "check_id": "cof_placement_buckets", "name": "Placement weight buckets sum to placements", "expected": 1399000.0, "actual": 1399000.0, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 1000.0, "unit": "head", "passed": true }, { "check_id": "cof_head_flow", "name": "Opening inventory plus placements less outflows equals closing inventory", "expected": 11370000.0, "actual": 11370000.0, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 1000.0, "unit": "head", "passed": true }, { "check_id": "weekly_production_bridge", "name": "Year-ago production plus head effect plus weight effect reconciles to current production", "expected": 464.98699999999997, "actual": 464.5, "residual": -0.487, "tolerance": 2.3225000000000002, "unit": "million_lb", "passed": true }, { "check_id": "net_trade_identity", "name": "Imports less exports equals net imports", "expected": 1776048029.31, "actual": 1776048029.31, "residual": 0.0, "tolerance": 0.01, "unit": "lb_carcass_weight_equivalent", "passed": true } ], "unit_policy": "No cattle-head-to-beef-pound conversion is made without an exposed observed weight or typed derivation." }, "change_alerts": [ { "alert_id": "weight_offsets_head_decline", "state": "ACTIVE", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "horizon": "current to 3 months", "direction": "MEAT_CUSHION", "summary": "Heavier carcasses are replacing part of the beef tonnage lost to lower slaughter.", "triggers": [ { "metric_id": "weekly_fi_slaughter_head", "label": "Slaughter -7.4% YoY" }, { "metric_id": "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "label": "Dressed weight +2.7% YoY" } ], "counter_evidence": "Reported weekly beef production remains -5.0% YoY.", "invalidation": "Dressed weights stop offsetting lower head throughput.", "decision_effect": "NONE" }, { "alert_id": "trade_cushions_domestic_availability", "state": "ACTIVE", "severity": "MULTI_INDICATOR", "horizon": "current to 6 months", "direction": "DOMESTIC_AVAILABILITY_CUSHION", "summary": "Trade flows are cushioning domestic beef availability despite tighter cattle head counts.", "triggers": [ { "metric_id": "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "label": "YTD imports +9.9%" }, { "metric_id": "beef_exports_ytd_cwe", "label": "YTD exports -17.2%" } ], "counter_evidence": "Product mix and imported lean are not fully interchangeable with Choice fed-beef cuts.", "invalidation": "Imports reverse lower and exports recover enough to remove the net availability cushion.", "decision_effect": "NONE" } ], "theses": [ { "thesis_id": "later_head_tightness_near_meat_cushion", "role": "PRIMARY_WORKING_HYPOTHESIS", "title": "Later fed-cattle tightness, buffered near-term beef availability", "horizon": "current through 18 months", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "state": "CURRENT_AVAILABILITY_CUSHIONED", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "cof_placements_head", "weekly_dressed_weight_lbs", "beef_imports_ytd_cwe", "beef_exports_ytd_cwe" ], "contradictions": [ "cof_on_feed_head", "weekly_beef_production_mil_lbs" ], "confirmation": "Later marketings and slaughter tighten after placement cohorts roll forward while meat cushions fade.", "invalidation": "Placements recover or meat availability remains ample enough to prevent the expected tightening.", "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "decision_effect": "NONE", "active_alert_ids": [ "weight_offsets_head_decline", "trade_cushions_domestic_availability" ] }, { "thesis_id": "meat_availability_outlasts_head_shortage", "role": "COMPETING_HYPOTHESIS", "title": "Beef availability stays adequate longer than cattle head counts imply", "horizon": "current through 12 months", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "weekly_weight_effect_mil_lbs", "beef_net_imports_ytd_cwe" ], "contradictions": [ "cof_placements_head", "feeder_cattle_outside_feedlots" ], "confirmation": "Weights, imports, dairy-beef supply, or weak exports continue replacing domestic fed-cattle tonnage.", "invalidation": "Weights normalize and trade cushions reverse before placements recover.", "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "decision_effect": "NONE" }, { "thesis_id": "capacity_rationalization_changes_leverage", "role": "COMPETING_HYPOTHESIS", "title": "Processing-capacity rationalization changes packer and feedyard leverage", "horizon": "3-24 months", "probability": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "evidence_factor_ids": [ "packer_gross_spread_cwt_carcass", "cof_marketings_head", "weekly_fi_slaughter_head" ], "contradictions": [ "No verified plant closure is inferred from margin data alone." ], "confirmation": "Verified capacity exits or sustained shift reductions tighten the hook-to-cattle balance.", "invalidation": "Margins recover and observed capacity remains stable.", "futures_implication": "UNVALIDATED_HYPOTHESIS", "decision_effect": "NONE" } ], "source_ledger": [ { "source_id": "USDA_NASS_COF", "source_module": "cattle_on_feed", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/cattle_on_feed_status.json", "source_fingerprint": "d7b31a5908acf3d7d77e18e1119d8360d49d13dbbc411e4be2681195a953004a", "upstream_status": "PASS", "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-24", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 1, "warn_days": 32, "stale_days": 40, "state": "PASS" }, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "read_only_input": true, "error": null }, { "source_id": "USDA_ERS_TRADE", "source_module": "import_exports", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/import_exports_status.json", "source_fingerprint": "8f240c5e02fb0f07d32da7240dcd1b3ac1cebd3b53b6a049544d8f6541e60cf5", "upstream_status": "PASS", "observed_at_ct": "2026-05", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "read_only_input": true, "error": null }, { "source_id": "USDA_AMS_CEI", "source_module": "ALPHA_PACKER_ECONOMICS_V1", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/packer_economics_status.json", "source_fingerprint": "af0228bc9b2962c3091cc39208a52279ef3afe6eac34cd932f816227f918b100", "upstream_status": "PASS", "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-24 after 15:30 CT", "freshness": { "status": "PASS", "reason": "Latest expected weekday USDA CEI report is present.", "report_date": "2026-07-24", "expected_report_date": "2026-07-24", "calendar_age_days": 0, "business_release_lag": 0, "release_cutoff_ct": "15:45", "weekend_aware": true, "holiday_calendar_note": "Weekday-aware; USDA holiday exceptions may produce WATCH until the next release.", "state": "PASS" }, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "read_only_input": true, "error": null }, { "source_id": "USDA_APHIS", "source_module": "animal_health", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/animal_health_status.json", "source_fingerprint": "5a2b58932cd312ad1e71a6febdfbc60bce3e86e3ef635ecf1982d3ca0ae60ed4", "upstream_status": "PASS", "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-24", "freshness": { "state": "PASS" }, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "read_only_input": true, "error": null }, { "source_id": "USDA_AMS_CASH", "source_module": "cash_cattle", "source_path": "/opt/alpha_current/outputs/cash_cattle_status.json", "source_fingerprint": "405b4dd97b45b6f5b74db3686a4fbc34514d0589dcdcd267511a43a6aff1df7e", "upstream_status": "PASS", "observed_at_ct": "2026-07-24 daily publication", "freshness": { "calendar_age_days": 0, "pass_max_days": 2, "watch_max_days": 5, "state": "PASS" }, "value_kind": "OBSERVED", "read_only_input": true, "error": null }, { "source_id": 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}, { "market": "LIVE_CATTLE", "contract": "LEZ6", "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-12", "horizon": "d40", "as_of_price": 222.275, "fair_value": 223.7, "predicted_price": 223.7, "interval": [ 213.95, 238.9 ], "edge_pct": 0.644537, "expected_return_pct": 0.644537, "model_version": "cof-fixed-contract-ridge-v2.1.0", "status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ONLY", "validation_status": "PREDICTIVE_EDGE_UNPROVEN", "issuance_status": "FROZEN_WHILE_OPEN", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "decision_effect": "NONE", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "market": "LIVE_CATTLE", "contract": "LEG7", "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2027-02", "horizon": "d1", "as_of_price": 223.3, "fair_value": 224.175, "predicted_price": 224.175, "interval": [ 222.2, 225.575 ], "edge_pct": 0.389248, "expected_return_pct": 0.389248, "model_version": "cof-fixed-contract-ridge-v2.1.0", "status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ONLY", "validation_status": "PREDICTIVE_EDGE_UNPROVEN", "issuance_status": "FROZEN_WHILE_OPEN", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "decision_effect": "NONE", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "market": "LIVE_CATTLE", "contract": "LEG7", "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2027-02", "horizon": "d5", "as_of_price": 223.3, "fair_value": 224.35, "predicted_price": 224.35, "interval": [ 219.225, 228.925 ], "edge_pct": 0.473488, "expected_return_pct": 0.473488, "model_version": "cof-fixed-contract-ridge-v2.1.0", "status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ONLY", "validation_status": "PREDICTIVE_EDGE_UNPROVEN", "issuance_status": "FROZEN_WHILE_OPEN", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "decision_effect": "NONE", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "market": "LIVE_CATTLE", "contract": "LEG7", "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2027-02", "horizon": "d20", "as_of_price": 223.3, "fair_value": 224.325, "predicted_price": 224.325, "interval": [ 217.9, 236.25 ], "edge_pct": 0.455863, "expected_return_pct": 0.455863, "model_version": "cof-fixed-contract-ridge-v2.1.0", "status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ONLY", "validation_status": "PREDICTIVE_EDGE_UNPROVEN", "issuance_status": "FROZEN_WHILE_OPEN", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "decision_effect": "NONE", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, { "market": "LIVE_CATTLE", "contract": "LEG7", "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2027-02", "horizon": "d40", "as_of_price": 223.3, "fair_value": 225.25, "predicted_price": 225.25, "interval": [ 212.2, 238.95 ], "edge_pct": 0.872795, "expected_return_pct": 0.872795, "model_version": "cof-fixed-contract-ridge-v2.1.0", "status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ONLY", "validation_status": "PREDICTIVE_EDGE_UNPROVEN", "issuance_status": "FROZEN_WHILE_OPEN", "estimate_type": "CONDITIONAL_REPORT_RESPONSE_NOT_INTRINSIC_FAIR_VALUE", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "decision_effect": "NONE", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" } ], "scorecard": { "schema_version": "alpha.structural_forecast_scorecard.v1", "status": "NO_RESOLVED_FORWARD_FORECASTS", "performance_status": "UNPROVEN", "resolved_forecast_count": 0, "forward_resolved_forecast_count": 0, "forward_resolved_count": 0, "unique_resolved_report_release_count": 0, "unique_resolved_release_revision_count": 0, "open_forecast_count": 12, "matured_data_pending_count": 0, "directional_accuracy": null, "mae": null, "rmse": null, "mean_bias": null, "interval_coverage": null, "baseline_name": "ZERO_CHANGE_FIXED_CONTRACT_V1", "baseline": "ZERO_CHANGE_FIXED_CONTRACT_V1", "skill_vs_baseline": null, "mae_skill_vs_baseline": null, "validation_mode": "IMMUTABLE_GENUINELY_FORWARD_OOS", "forward_test_status": "OPEN_BOOK_NO_FORWARD_RESOLUTIONS", "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "calibration": [], "by_horizon": [ { "label": "D1", "horizon": "d1", "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "unique_report_release_count": 0, "directional_accuracy": null, "mae": null, "skill_vs_baseline": null }, { "label": "D5", "horizon": "d5", "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "unique_report_release_count": 0, "directional_accuracy": null, "mae": null, "skill_vs_baseline": null }, { "label": "D20", "horizon": "d20", "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "unique_report_release_count": 0, "directional_accuracy": null, "mae": null, "skill_vs_baseline": null }, { "label": "D40", "horizon": "d40", "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "unique_report_release_count": 0, "directional_accuracy": null, "mae": null, "skill_vs_baseline": null } ], "breakdowns": [ { "label": "D1", "horizon": "d1", "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "unique_report_release_count": 0, "directional_accuracy": null, "mae": null, "skill_vs_baseline": null }, { "label": "D5", "horizon": "d5", "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "unique_report_release_count": 0, "directional_accuracy": null, "mae": null, "skill_vs_baseline": null }, { "label": "D20", "horizon": "d20", "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "unique_report_release_count": 0, "directional_accuracy": null, "mae": null, "skill_vs_baseline": null }, { "label": "D40", "horizon": "d40", "n": 0, "sample_size": 0, "unique_report_release_count": 0, "directional_accuracy": null, "mae": null, "skill_vs_baseline": null } ], "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "profitability_claim": false }, "model_card": { "schema_version": "alpha.model_card.structural_futures_v2.v1", "status": "RESEARCH_ONLY_UNVALIDATED", "model_name": "Structural Futures V2 fixed-contract COF response", "model_version": "cof-fixed-contract-ridge-v2.1.0", "model_type": "Expanding-window ridge regression with fixed-contract event responses", "lifecycle_status": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "owner": "Alpha Structural Radar research boundary", "purpose": "Estimate a conditional fixed-contract price response after a Cattle on Feed release.", "intended_uses": [ "research", "hypothesis tracking", "forward accountability", "contract-window comparison" ], "prohibited_uses": [ "WOW Command input", "official decision input", "live trading", "position sizing", "intrinsic fair-value claim" ], "target": "Nth actual later RTH last-trade close versus same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close before the after-close COF release; these are not official CME settlements.", "target_definition": "Nth actual later RTH last-trade close versus same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close before the after-close COF release; these are not official CME settlements.", "prediction_population": "Highest-volume unexpired Live Cattle fixed contract and the next two listed expiries on the release date.", "horizons": [ "d1", "d5", "d20", "d40" ], "horizon_definitions": { "d1": "1 actual later fixed-contract session(s)", "d5": "5 actual later fixed-contract session(s)", "d20": "20 actual later fixed-contract session(s)", "d40": "40 actual later fixed-contract session(s)" }, "training_cutoff": "Strictly before each prediction release; every included label must also have completed before that release.", "validation_protocol": "Expanding-window, point-in-time walk-forward evaluation against an expanding-mean diagnostic baseline.", "validation_method": "Expanding-window point-in-time walk-forward", "features": [ "on_feed_yoy_delta_pp", "placements_yoy_delta_pp", "marketings_yoy_delta_pp", "activity_month_season_sin", "activity_month_season_cos" ], "feature_families": [ "USDA COF year-over-year release values", "activity-month seasonality" ], "data_sources": [ "USDA NASS COF as-released event rows", "Databento Live Cattle fixed-contract daily bars" ], "training": { "method": "Ridge regression fit only to fully labeled events available before each prediction timestamp.", "minimum_train_events": 24, "walk_forward_evaluation": true, "fixed_contract_only": true, "continuous_or_stitched_prices_used": false }, "baseline": "Expanding historical mean inside V2 walk-forward diagnostics; zero-change baseline in the immutable forward registry.", "leakage_controls": [ "As-released report values only", "Latest event excluded from training", "Training labels must complete before prediction", "Forward registry rejects horizons already mature at first issuance" ], "evaluation_metrics": [ "MAE", "baseline-relative MAE skill", "directional accuracy", "prediction correlation", "80% interval coverage" ], "known_limitations": [ "No contemporaneous consensus-surprise feature", "Conditional report response is not all-factor intrinsic value", "Weekday target scheduling is conservative and is reconciled to actual fixed-contract sessions at resolution", "No demonstrated forward predictive edge yet", "No transaction costs, slippage, liquidity, or executable strategy economics" ], "uncertainty": "Residual 10th/90th-percentile response interval where enough walk-forward residuals exist.", "reproducibility": "Each issuance freezes the implementation SHA-256, fitted ridge coefficients/normalization/penalty, exact training-row identity hash, event features, source hashes, and model-spec hash.", "fairness_scope": "Not applicable to people; monitor contract-month and market-regime coverage instead.", "monitoring": { "immutable_forecast_book": true, "open_outcomes_retained": true, "baseline_relative_scorecard": true, "calibration_minimum_unique_report_releases": 36 }, "calibration_policy": "No calibrated claim until at least 36 independent genuinely forward report releases and at least 10 unique releases per claimed horizon; correlated role-by-horizon cells and same-report revisions do not count as independent releases. Current status remains NOT_CALIBRATED.", "promotion_criteria": [ "At least 36 independent genuinely forward report releases", "At least 10 unique report releases per claimed horizon", "Positive baseline-relative MAE skill with stable directional evidence", "Independent governance review; never automatic promotion" ], "promotion_gate_passed": false, "governance": { "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "auto_promotion_path": false, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "max_points": 0, "decision_effect": "NONE", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" } }, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "max_points": 0, "decision_effect": "NONE", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "forecast_registry": { "schema_version": "alpha.structural_forecast_registry.v1", "module": "ALPHA_STRUCTURAL_FORECAST_REGISTRY", "status": "PASS", "mode": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "research_only": true, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "calibration": { "status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "resolved_forward_forecast_count": 0, "unique_resolved_report_release_count": 0, "minimum_unique_report_releases": 36, "minimum_unique_releases_per_horizon": 10, "eligible_for_predictive_claim": false, "reason": "Forward outcomes are being accumulated; no predictive edge is established." }, "immutability": { "append_only": true, "existing_records_mutated": false, "deterministic_forecast_ids": true, "freeze_hash_algorithm": "SHA256_CANONICAL_JSON", "ledger_validation": "PASS", "hash_chain_validation": "PASS", "persisted_checkpoint_validation": "PASS", "checkpoint_prior_state": "PASS", "ledger_head_hash": "e34d1639569bcfecb6be1333be9ce21f7c349bf56b26d7ff0aca0e27224b1a58", "single_file_tail_truncation_detection": "PERSISTED_SIBLING_STATUS_CHECKPOINT", "external_trust_anchor_present": false, "coordinated_privileged_tamper_protection": false, "integrity_scope": "Record modification and non-tail deletion are hash-chain evident. Tail loss is detected when the separate prior status checkpoint remains intact; no external WORM anchor is claimed.", "record_count": 12, "issuance_count": 12, "outcome_record_count": 0 }, "outcome_states": { "OPEN": 12, "MATURED_DATA_PENDING": 0, "RESOLVED": 0 }, "issuance_eligibility_counts_latest_run": { "OPEN_FORWARD": 12 }, "forecasts": [ { "forecast_id": "SFR-73692CE048D34EC0D5DE46B0", "freeze_hash": "522eed6babf6b7998c16f5204d76361a3ffca690b96396414d1860d0ab7324f2", "forecast_payload_hash": "43486e0d3bda089c04712f2f8f7b262e3da97b60c6f8c8e667d16bf117526dfe", "issued_at_ct": "2026-07-24T16:50:11.302156-05:00", "state": "OPEN", "frozen_forecast": { "baseline": { "baseline_id": "ZERO_CHANGE_FIXED_CONTRACT_V1", "conditional_price": 222.575, "definition": "No report-response change from the fixed-contract pre-report close.", "predicted_response_pct": 0.0 }, "event_feature_snapshot": [ { "known_at_ct": "2026-07-24T14:00:00-05:00", "observation_id": "on_feed_yoy_delta_pp", "unit": "percentage_point", "value": 2.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED_RELEASE" }, { "known_at_ct": "2026-07-24T14:00:00-05:00", "observation_id": "placements_yoy_delta_pp", "unit": "percentage_point", "value": -3.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED_RELEASE" }, { "known_at_ct": "2026-07-24T14:00:00-05:00", "observation_id": "marketings_yoy_delta_pp", "unit": "percentage_point", "value": -3.0, "value_kind": "OBSERVED_RELEASE" }, { "known_at_ct": "2026-07-24T14:00:00-05:00", "observation_id": "season_sin", "unit": "cyclical_component", "value": 0.0, "value_kind": "DERIVED_FROM_ACTIVITY_MONTH" }, { "known_at_ct": "2026-07-24T14:00:00-05:00", "observation_id": "season_cos", "unit": "cyclical_component", "value": -1.0, "value_kind": "DERIVED_FROM_ACTIVITY_MONTH" } ], "event_release_timestamp_ct": "2026-07-24T14:00:00-05:00", "expected_target_at_ct": "2026-07-27T13:05:00-05:00", "identity": { "event_id": "795993", "horizon": "d1", "model_version": "cof-fixed-contract-ridge-v2.1.0", "prediction_contract_id": "LE-2026-10", "release_date": "2026-07-24", "release_revision_id": "795993@2026-07-24T14:00:00-05:00", "role": "near", "symbol": "LEV6", "target_sessions": 1 }, "model_evidence_at_issuance": { "max_training_label_date": "2026-06-22", "n_train": 77, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "statistical_gate_passed": false, "training_max_release_date": "2026-06-18", "walk_forward": { "baseline_mae_return_pct": 0.678042, "directional_accuracy": 0.509434, "interval_80_coverage": 0.710526, "interval_coverage_n": 38, "mae_return_pct": 0.706583, "mae_skill_vs_expanding_mean": -0.042092, "mae_skill_vs_zero_return": -0.074927, "n_oos": 53, "prediction_correlation": 0.126607, "zero_return_baseline_mae_pct": 0.657331 } }, "model_spec": { "contract_selection": "Highest-volume unexpired named fixed contract is near; the next two canonical year-month expiries are mid and deferred.", "feature_names": [ "on_feed_yoy_delta_pp", "placements_yoy_delta_pp", "marketings_yoy_delta_pp", "season_sin", "season_cos" ], "fitted_artifact": { "artifact_sha256": "cba93e3135de34022f40d80ec36c79697de2026b96b0d9a38e29ea9e440ae9db", "coefficients_intercept_first": [ 0.038551655027, 0.039084066648, -0.404919728266, 0.058640319609, 0.008456277483, -0.174845132735 ], "feature_means": [ -0.25974025974, -1.701298701299, -1.753246753247, 0.061455205293, 0.012987012987 ], "feature_names": [ "on_feed_yoy_delta_pp", "placements_yoy_delta_pp", "marketings_yoy_delta_pp", "season_sin", "season_cos" ], "feature_scales": [ 2.109979980225, 8.171958602703, 8.345083075471, 0.699806938554, 0.711565066587 ], "ridge_penalty": 4.0, "training_row_count": 77, "training_row_identity_sha256": "a3a26f233bdd5bd60ce4f79c0b0f2cd5d7be613198b2b3cdeff147bbcfac79f0" }, "fixed_contract_only": true, "implementation_sha256": "122b355739d8f28522367bcb9b4097a897fa382cc2fbe049c89d448fb81c0d56", "minimum_train_events": 24, "model_family": "RIDGE_REGRESSION_EXPANDING_WINDOW", "model_version": "cof-fixed-contract-ridge-v2.1.0", "target_definition": "Nth actual later RTH last-trade close versus same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close before the after-close COF release; 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these are not official CME settlements.", "target_definition": "Nth actual later RTH last-trade close versus same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close before the after-close COF release; these are not official CME settlements.", "prediction_population": "Highest-volume unexpired Live Cattle fixed contract and the next two listed expiries on the release date.", "horizons": [ "d1", "d5", "d20", "d40" ], "horizon_definitions": { "d1": "1 actual later fixed-contract session(s)", "d5": "5 actual later fixed-contract session(s)", "d20": "20 actual later fixed-contract session(s)", "d40": "40 actual later fixed-contract session(s)" }, "training_cutoff": "Strictly before each prediction release; every included label must also have completed before that release.", "validation_protocol": "Expanding-window, point-in-time walk-forward evaluation against an expanding-mean diagnostic baseline.", "validation_method": "Expanding-window point-in-time walk-forward", "features": [ "on_feed_yoy_delta_pp", "placements_yoy_delta_pp", "marketings_yoy_delta_pp", "activity_month_season_sin", "activity_month_season_cos" ], "feature_families": [ "USDA COF year-over-year release values", "activity-month seasonality" ], "data_sources": [ "USDA NASS COF as-released event rows", "Databento Live Cattle fixed-contract daily bars" ], "training": { "method": "Ridge regression fit only to fully labeled events available before each prediction timestamp.", "minimum_train_events": 24, "walk_forward_evaluation": true, "fixed_contract_only": true, "continuous_or_stitched_prices_used": false }, "baseline": "Expanding historical mean inside V2 walk-forward diagnostics; zero-change baseline in the immutable forward registry.", "leakage_controls": [ "As-released report values only", "Latest event excluded from training", "Training labels must complete before prediction", "Forward registry rejects horizons already mature at first issuance" ], "evaluation_metrics": [ "MAE", "baseline-relative MAE skill", "directional accuracy", "prediction correlation", "80% interval coverage" ], "known_limitations": [ "No contemporaneous consensus-surprise feature", "Conditional report response is not all-factor intrinsic value", "Weekday target scheduling is conservative and is reconciled to actual fixed-contract sessions at resolution", "No demonstrated forward predictive edge yet", "No transaction costs, slippage, liquidity, or executable strategy economics" ], "uncertainty": "Residual 10th/90th-percentile response interval where enough walk-forward residuals exist.", "reproducibility": "Each issuance freezes the implementation SHA-256, fitted ridge coefficients/normalization/penalty, exact training-row identity hash, event features, source hashes, and model-spec hash.", "fairness_scope": "Not applicable to people; monitor contract-month and market-regime coverage instead.", "monitoring": { "immutable_forecast_book": true, "open_outcomes_retained": true, "baseline_relative_scorecard": true, "calibration_minimum_unique_report_releases": 36 }, "calibration_policy": "No calibrated claim until at least 36 independent genuinely forward report releases and at least 10 unique releases per claimed horizon; correlated role-by-horizon cells and same-report revisions do not count as independent releases. Current status remains NOT_CALIBRATED.", "promotion_criteria": [ "At least 36 independent genuinely forward report releases", "At least 10 unique report releases per claimed horizon", "Positive baseline-relative MAE skill with stable directional evidence", "Independent governance review; never automatic promotion" ], "promotion_gate_passed": false, "governance": { "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "auto_promotion_path": false, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "max_points": 0, "decision_effect": "NONE", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" } }, "warnings": [ "Immutable forecast SFR-73692CE048D34EC0D5DE46B0 differs from a later recomputation; the first issuance remains frozen.", "Immutable forecast SFR-8D50347DB9AA396B28607EEC differs from a later recomputation; the first issuance remains frozen.", "Immutable forecast SFR-592CF197E05B4EBF7B2E4549 differs from a later recomputation; the first issuance remains frozen.", "Immutable forecast SFR-3C71DE07DDDBC33D8A855269 differs from a later 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fixed-contract COF response", "model_version": "cof-fixed-contract-ridge-v2.1.0", "model_type": "Expanding-window ridge regression with fixed-contract event responses", "lifecycle_status": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "owner": "Alpha Structural Radar research boundary", "purpose": "Estimate a conditional fixed-contract price response after a Cattle on Feed release.", "intended_uses": [ "research", "hypothesis tracking", "forward accountability", "contract-window comparison" ], "prohibited_uses": [ "WOW Command input", "official decision input", "live trading", "position sizing", "intrinsic fair-value claim" ], "target": "Nth actual later RTH last-trade close versus same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close before the after-close COF release; these are not official CME settlements.", "target_definition": "Nth actual later RTH last-trade close versus same-day fixed-contract RTH last-trade close before the after-close COF release; these are not official CME settlements.", "prediction_population": "Highest-volume unexpired Live Cattle fixed contract and the next two listed expiries on the release date.", "horizons": [ "d1", "d5", "d20", "d40" ], "horizon_definitions": { "d1": "1 actual later fixed-contract session(s)", "d5": "5 actual later fixed-contract session(s)", "d20": "20 actual later fixed-contract session(s)", "d40": "40 actual later fixed-contract session(s)" }, "training_cutoff": "Strictly before each prediction release; every included label must also have completed before that release.", "validation_protocol": "Expanding-window, point-in-time walk-forward evaluation against an expanding-mean diagnostic baseline.", "validation_method": "Expanding-window point-in-time walk-forward", "features": [ "on_feed_yoy_delta_pp", "placements_yoy_delta_pp", "marketings_yoy_delta_pp", "activity_month_season_sin", "activity_month_season_cos" ], "feature_families": [ "USDA COF year-over-year release values", "activity-month seasonality" ], "data_sources": [ "USDA NASS COF as-released event rows", "Databento Live Cattle fixed-contract daily bars" ], "training": { "method": "Ridge regression fit only to fully labeled events available before each prediction timestamp.", "minimum_train_events": 24, "walk_forward_evaluation": true, "fixed_contract_only": true, "continuous_or_stitched_prices_used": false }, "baseline": "Expanding historical mean inside V2 walk-forward diagnostics; zero-change baseline in the immutable forward registry.", "leakage_controls": [ "As-released report values only", "Latest event excluded from training", "Training labels must complete before prediction", "Forward registry rejects horizons already mature at first issuance" ], "evaluation_metrics": [ "MAE", "baseline-relative MAE skill", "directional accuracy", "prediction correlation", "80% interval coverage" ], "known_limitations": [ "No contemporaneous consensus-surprise feature", "Conditional report response is not all-factor intrinsic value", "Weekday target scheduling is conservative and is reconciled to actual fixed-contract sessions at resolution", "No demonstrated forward predictive edge yet", "No transaction costs, slippage, liquidity, or executable strategy economics" ], "uncertainty": "Residual 10th/90th-percentile response interval where enough walk-forward residuals exist.", "reproducibility": "Each issuance freezes the implementation SHA-256, fitted ridge coefficients/normalization/penalty, exact training-row identity hash, event features, source hashes, and model-spec hash.", "fairness_scope": "Not applicable to people; monitor contract-month and market-regime coverage instead.", "monitoring": { "immutable_forecast_book": true, "open_outcomes_retained": true, "baseline_relative_scorecard": true, "calibration_minimum_unique_report_releases": 36 }, "calibration_policy": "No calibrated claim until at least 36 independent genuinely forward report releases and at least 10 unique releases per claimed horizon; correlated role-by-horizon cells and same-report revisions do not count as independent releases. Current status remains NOT_CALIBRATED.", "promotion_criteria": [ "At least 36 independent genuinely forward report releases", "At least 10 unique report releases per claimed horizon", "Positive baseline-relative MAE skill with stable directional evidence", "Independent governance review; never automatic promotion" ], "promotion_gate_passed": false, "governance": { "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "auto_promotion_path": false, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "max_points": 0, "decision_effect": "NONE", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" } }, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "pricing_authority": "NONE", "structural_futures_v2": { "schema_version": "alpha.structural_futures.v2", "module": "ALPHA_STRUCTURAL_FUTURES_V2", "status": "PASS", "mode": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_ONLY", "research_only": true, "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false, "live": false, "decision_effect": "NONE", "wow_command_effect": "NONE", "max_points": 0, "promotion_gate_passed": false, "pricing_authority": "NONE", "headline": "Placement cohorts are mapped to contract windows; price estimates remain conditional and research-only.", "point_in_time_events": { "event_count": 115, "latest_event": { "event_id": "795993", "release_revision_id": "795993@2026-07-24T14:00:00-05:00", "release_date": "2026-07-24", "release_timestamp_ct": "2026-07-24T14:00:00-05:00", "release_timestamp_kind": "RECORDED_SOURCE_TIMESTAMP", "activity_month": "2026-06-01", "availability_rule": "Feature values become available only at the recorded USDA release timestamp.", "observations": [ { "observation_id": "on_feed_yoy_delta_pp", "value": 2.0, "unit": "percentage_point", "value_kind": "OBSERVED_RELEASE", "known_at_ct": "2026-07-24T14:00:00-05:00" }, { "observation_id": "placements_yoy_delta_pp", "value": -3.0, "unit": "percentage_point", "value_kind": "OBSERVED_RELEASE", "known_at_ct": "2026-07-24T14:00:00-05:00" }, { "observation_id": "marketings_yoy_delta_pp", "value": -3.0, "unit": "percentage_point", "value_kind": "OBSERVED_RELEASE", "known_at_ct": "2026-07-24T14:00:00-05:00" }, { "observation_id": "season_sin", "value": 0.0, "unit": "cyclical_component", "value_kind": "DERIVED_FROM_ACTIVITY_MONTH", "known_at_ct": "2026-07-24T14:00:00-05:00" }, { "observation_id": "season_cos", "value": -1.0, "unit": "cyclical_component", "value_kind": "DERIVED_FROM_ACTIVITY_MONTH", "known_at_ct": "2026-07-24T14:00:00-05:00" } ], "provenance": { "source_url": "https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795993/cofd0726.txt", "source_sha256": "f794b52ee157e529650937be610257d9a1fe30ab11b41e17136a637434fae049" }, "research_only": true, "usable_for_decision": false, "usable_for_live_trade": false }, "as_of_cutoff_ct": "2026-07-25T16:50:22.548744-05:00", "feature_policy": "Only values printed in the as-released row plus activity-month season terms are features.", "consensus_surprise_available": false, "consensus_surprise_used": false }, "cohort_timing_bridge": { "status": "PASS", "latest_release_date": "2026-07-24", "latest_activity_month": "2026-06-01", "prior_year_release_date": "2025-07-25", "prior_year_activity_month": "2025-06-01", "comparison": "SAME_ACTIVITY_MONTH_AS_RELEASED_YEAR_OVER_YEAR", "buckets": [ { "bucket_id": "less_than_600_lbs", "current_head": 325000, "prior_year_head": 320000, "delta_head": 5000, "delta_pct": 1.562, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "minimum": 190, "maximum": 250, "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION" }, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-12-08", "latest": "2027-03-07" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-12-26", "p50": "2027-01-21", "p90": "2027-02-17", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "contract_exposures": [ { "symbol": "LEZ6", "contract_month": "2026-12", "window_day_share": 0.163934, "current_head_equivalent": 53278.7, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 52459.0, "delta_head_equivalent": 819.7 }, { "symbol": "LEG7", "contract_month": "2027-02", "window_day_share": 0.811475, "current_head_equivalent": 263729.5, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 259672.1, "delta_head_equivalent": 4057.4 }, { "symbol": "LEJ7", "contract_month": "2027-04", "window_day_share": 0.02459, "current_head_equivalent": 7991.8, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 7868.9, "delta_head_equivalent": 123.0 } ] }, { "bucket_id": "600_699_lbs", "current_head": 225000, "prior_year_head": 235000, "delta_head": -10000, "delta_pct": -4.255, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "minimum": 170, "maximum": 230, "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION" }, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-11-18", "latest": "2027-02-15" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-12-06", "p50": "2027-01-01", "p90": "2027-01-28", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "contract_exposures": [ { "symbol": "LEZ6", "contract_month": 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12786.9, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 13426.2, "delta_head_equivalent": -639.3 }, { "symbol": "LEZ6", "contract_month": "2026-12", "window_day_share": 0.88306, "current_head_equivalent": 264918.0, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 278163.9, "delta_head_equivalent": -13245.9 }, { "symbol": "LEG7", "contract_month": "2027-02", "window_day_share": 0.074317, "current_head_equivalent": 22295.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 23409.8, "delta_head_equivalent": -1114.8 } ] }, { "bucket_id": "800_899_lbs", "current_head": 309000, "prior_year_head": 326000, "delta_head": -17000, "delta_pct": -5.215, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "minimum": 110, "maximum": 170, "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION" }, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-09-19", "latest": "2026-12-17" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-10-07", "p50": "2026-11-02", "p90": "2026-11-29", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "contract_exposures": [ { "symbol": "LEV6", "contract_month": "2026-10", "window_day_share": 0.45082, "current_head_equivalent": 139303.3, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 146967.2, "delta_head_equivalent": -7663.9 }, { "symbol": "LEZ6", "contract_month": "2026-12", "window_day_share": 0.54918, "current_head_equivalent": 169696.7, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 179032.8, "delta_head_equivalent": -9336.1 } ] }, { "bucket_id": "900_999_lbs", "current_head": 160000, "prior_year_head": 165000, "delta_head": -5000, "delta_pct": -3.03, "days_on_feed_assumption": { "minimum": 80, "maximum": 140, "kind": "MODELING_ASSUMPTION_NOT_USDA_OBSERVATION" }, "estimated_market_ready_window": { "earliest": "2026-08-20", "latest": "2026-11-17" }, "market_ready_date_distribution": { "p10": "2026-09-07", "p50": "2026-10-03", "p90": "2026-10-30", "weighting": "DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "contract_exposures": [ { "symbol": "LEQ6", "contract_month": "2026-08", 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"DISCRETE_CONVOLUTION_OF_UNIFORM_PLACEMENT_DAY_AND_DAYS_ON_FEED_ASSUMPTIONS" }, "contract_exposures": [ { "symbol": "LEQ6", "contract_month": "2026-08", "window_day_share": 0.45082, "current_head_equivalent": 36065.6, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 36065.6, "delta_head_equivalent": 0.0 }, { "symbol": "LEV6", "contract_month": "2026-10", "window_day_share": 0.54918, "current_head_equivalent": 43934.4, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 43934.4, "delta_head_equivalent": 0.0 } ] } ], "contracts": [ { "symbol": "LEQ6", "contract_month": "2026-08", "current_head_equivalent": 42885.2, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 43098.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -213.1, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "pricing_authority": "NONE" }, { "symbol": "LEV6", "contract_month": "2026-10", "current_head_equivalent": 334254.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 346877.0, "delta_head_equivalent": -12623.0, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "pricing_authority": "NONE" }, { "symbol": "LEZ6", "contract_month": "2026-12", "current_head_equivalent": 611655.7, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 638721.3, "delta_head_equivalent": -27065.6, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "pricing_authority": "NONE" }, { "symbol": "LEG7", "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 402213.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 404434.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -2221.3, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "pricing_authority": "NONE" }, { "symbol": "LEJ7", "contract_month": "2027-04", "current_head_equivalent": 7991.8, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 7868.9, "delta_head_equivalent": 123.0, "structural_read": "MORE_HEAD_EXPOSED_PRESSURE", "pricing_authority": "NONE" } ], "reconciliations": [ { "check_id": "latest_bucket_sum_to_placements", "actual": 1399000.0, "expected": 1399000.0, "residual_head": 0.0, "tolerance_head": 1000.0, "passed": true }, { "check_id": "prior_bucket_sum_to_placements", "actual": 1441000.0, "expected": 1441000.0, "residual_head": 0.0, 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"latest_observed_outcome": { "target_date": null, "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true } } ] }, { "contract_id": "LE-2027-02", "symbol": "LEG7", "role": "deferred", "cohort_timing_exposure": { "symbol": "LEG7", "contract_month": "2027-02", "current_head_equivalent": 402213.1, "prior_year_head_equivalent": 404434.4, "delta_head_equivalent": -2221.3, "structural_read": "FEWER_HEAD_EXPOSED_SUPPORTIVE", "pricing_authority": "NONE" }, "horizons": [ { "horizon": "d1", "status": "PASS", "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "predicted_response_pct": 0.389248, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -0.492242, 1.019313 ], "conditional_fair_value": 224.175, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 222.2, 225.575 ], "promotion_gate_passed": false, "latest_observed_outcome": { "target_date": null, "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true } }, { "horizon": "d5", "status": "PASS", "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "predicted_response_pct": 0.473488, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -1.821666, 2.521559 ], "conditional_fair_value": 224.35, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 219.225, 228.925 ], "promotion_gate_passed": false, "latest_observed_outcome": { "target_date": null, "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true } }, { "horizon": "d20", "status": "PASS", "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "predicted_response_pct": 0.455863, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -2.421714, 5.803479 ], "conditional_fair_value": 224.325, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 217.9, 236.25 ], "promotion_gate_passed": false, "latest_observed_outcome": { "target_date": null, "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true } }, { "horizon": "d40", "status": "PASS", "estimate_status": "UNVALIDATED_RESEARCH_ESTIMATE", "price_reference_kind": "DATABENTO_RTH_LAST_TRADE_CLOSE_NOT_OFFICIAL_SETTLEMENT", "predicted_response_pct": 0.872795, "response_interval_80_pct": [ -4.973402, 7.007314 ], "conditional_fair_value": 225.25, "conditional_fair_value_interval_80": [ 212.2, 238.95 ], "promotion_gate_passed": false, "latest_observed_outcome": { "target_date": null, "actual_return_pct": null, "excluded_from_training": true } } ] } ], "statistical_gate_pass_count": 0, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "curve_twist_model_active": false, "curve_twist_pricing_authority": "NONE", "fair_value_limitation": "Conditional report-response price is not an all-factor intrinsic fair value and cannot be promoted by this module.", "multiplicity_policy": "Twelve role-by-horizon candidates are exposed together; no familywise or FDR gate has passed, so operational promotion is prohibited.", "known_limitations": [ "Historical price references are Databento RTH last-trade closes, not official CME settlements.", "Daily source rows do not retain the final bar timestamp; pre-release ordering relies on the scheduled 13:05 CT RTH close preceding the recorded 14:00 CT COF release.", "No licensed analyst-consensus surprise series is available; report features are printed YoY levels, not consensus surprises.", "Role, horizon, and regime heterogeneity remain research limitations; all operational gates stay closed." ] }, "source_ledger": [ { "source_id": "USDA_NASS_COF_AS_RELEASED", "path": "/opt/alpha_current/data/cattle_on_feed/report_events.csv", "sha256": "9e0f6663b9f5b64cae55c5d58590d4b4c15ff29c0758ab88650b15c8bf01f3bd", "read_only": true, "rows": 115 }, { "source_id": "DATABENTO_LE_FIXED_CONTRACT_DAILY", "path": "/opt/alpha_current/data/cattle_on_feed/le_fixed_ohlcv_1d.parquet", "sha256": "ba420ff0515470a8f5ceab9447b9881b3eb38d99b2eca783ec170622893abb47", "read_only": true, "rows": 14323 } ], "validation": { "data_status": { "event_rows": 115, "fixed_contract_rows": 14323, "response_panel_rows": 234, "first_event_date": "2017-01-27", "latest_event_date": "2026-07-24", "price_first_date": "2020-01-02", "price_last_date": "2026-07-24", "latest_event_price_reference_available": true }, "point_in_time_release_timestamps": true, "events_filtered_to_as_of_cutoff": true, "price_rows_filtered_to_as_of_cutoff": true, "price_rows_unique_by_date_contract": true, "latest_event_excluded_from_training": true, "all_training_labels_completed_before_prediction": true, "cohort_reconciliations_passed": true, "model_gate_is_not_operational_gate": true, "price_reference_is_official_settlement": false, "price_reference_timestamp_retained": false, "historical_original_corrections_complete": false, "corrections_after_response_anchor_excluded": true, "historical_correction_policy": "Recorded same-date revisions are cutoff-aware. Later-date corrections are excluded from the report-response panel so they cannot be paired with an already-observed original-report return path; displaced originals are not guaranteed recoverable for every historical USDA correction.", "numeric_forecast_policy": "No estimate is emitted with insufficient prior history; no model estimate affects WOW or decisions." }, "errors": [], "semantic_fingerprint": "75c3efb1b3ea7175b6b8c193004dcef47d858e71a5368df671a59097f92a5e61" }, "system_quality_audit": { "schema_version": "alpha.system_quality_audit.v1", "rubric_id": "ALPHA_SYSTEM_QUALITY_NON_PROFITABILITY_V1", "scope": "SYSTEM_DESIGN_DATA_INTEGRITY_GOVERNANCE_AND_ACCOUNTABILITY", "explicit_exclusions": [ "predictive profitability", "tradable edge", "live execution quality", "risk-adjusted returns" ], "dimensions": [ { "dimension_id": "SOURCE_PROVENANCE", "label": "Source provenance and semantic integrity", "weight": 15, "earned": 15.0, "status": "PASS", "evidence": [ { "criterion": "At least eight unique structural sources have explicit non-stale freshness, observed-at values, and fingerprints", "passed": true, "points": 3.0, "max_points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Every base ledger row is identified, fingerprinted, and read-only", "passed": true, "points": 3.0, "max_points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Both required V2 sources are nonempty, read-only, and SHA-256 fingerprinted", "passed": true, "points": 3.0, "max_points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Base COF and V2 latest releases align, and the fixed-contract panel is current", "passed": true, "points": 3.0, "max_points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Base structural vintages parse strictly, checkpoint tail loss, and chain new semantic records", "passed": true, "points": 3.0, "max_points": 3.0 } ] }, { "dimension_id": "POINT_IN_TIME", "label": "Point-in-time and leakage controls", "weight": 15, "earned": 12.0, "status": "PARTIAL", "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Events and prices are filtered to the as-of cutoff", "passed": true, "points": 4.0, "max_points": 4.0 }, { "criterion": "Training labels complete before prediction and latest event is excluded", "passed": true, "points": 4.0, "max_points": 4.0 }, { "criterion": "As-released event timestamps are retained", "passed": true, "points": 4.0, "max_points": 4.0 }, { "criterion": "Daily price reference retains a final-bar timestamp", "passed": false, "points": 0, "max_points": 1.5 }, { "criterion": "Historical original/correction pairs are complete", "passed": false, "points": 0, "max_points": 1.5 } ], "limitation": "Capped at 12/15: the daily panel lacks a retained final-bar timestamp and historical original/correction completeness is not guaranteed." }, { "dimension_id": "RECONCILIATION", "label": "Accounting and reconciliation", "weight": 10, "earned": 10.0, "status": "PASS", "evidence": [ { "criterion": "All base observations are typed and reconciliations recompute within explicit units/tolerances", "passed": true, "points": 5.0, "max_points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Placement cohort-to-contract reconciliations recompute within head tolerances", "passed": true, "points": 5.0, "max_points": 5.0 } ] }, { "dimension_id": "CONTRACT_HORIZONS", "label": "Contract and horizon specificity", "weight": 10, "earned": 10.0, "status": "PASS", "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Fixed contracts are used without continuous stitching", "passed": true, "points": 5.0, "max_points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "A unique, fully estimated near/mid/deferred D1/D5/D20/D40 fixed-contract grid is present", "passed": true, "points": 5.0, "max_points": 5.0 } ] }, { "dimension_id": "MODEL_GOVERNANCE", "label": "Model governance without promotion leakage", "weight": 10, "earned": 10.0, "status": "PASS", "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Operational promotion is false", "passed": true, "points": 2.5, "max_points": 2.5 }, { "criterion": "Predictive edge remains explicitly unproven", "passed": true, "points": 2.5, "max_points": 2.5 }, { "criterion": "Calibration remains explicitly incomplete", "passed": true, "points": 2.5, "max_points": 2.5 }, { "criterion": "Pricing authority and execution points are zero", "passed": true, "points": 2.5, "max_points": 2.5 } ] }, { "dimension_id": "FORWARD_ACCOUNTABILITY", "label": "Immutable forward forecast accountability", "weight": 15, "earned": 9.0, "status": "PARTIAL", "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Append-only registry freeze hashes validate", "passed": true, "points": 2.0, "max_points": 2.0 }, { "criterion": "Prior sibling checkpoint detects single-file tail loss", "passed": true, "points": 1.0, "max_points": 1.0 }, { "criterion": "An external protected/WORM ledger anchor exists", "passed": false, "points": 0, "max_points": 1.0 }, { "criterion": "Forecast IDs are deterministic and issuance is deduplicated", "passed": true, "points": 3.0, "max_points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "Open and matured-unresolved outcomes remain explicit and unscored", "passed": true, "points": 3.0, "max_points": 3.0 }, { "criterion": "At least 36 independent forward report releases and 10 unique releases per claimed horizon are resolved", "passed": false, "points": 0, "max_points": 5.0 } ], "limitation": "0 correlated forecast cells across 0 independent report releases are resolved. Same-report roles, horizons, and revisions do not inflate the independent-release threshold. The sibling checkpoint is best-effort and no external WORM anchor exists; accountability is partial and predictive profitability is not graded." }, { "dimension_id": "OPERATIONAL_ISOLATION", "label": "Operational and WOW Command isolation", "weight": 15, "earned": 15.0, "status": "PASS", "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Base radar has no decision or WOW effect", "passed": true, "points": 5.0, "max_points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Registry writes only below the sibling radar root and the required runtime permission probe passes", "passed": true, "points": 5.0, "max_points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "No live-trade use, auto-promotion, or execution points", "passed": true, "points": 5.0, "max_points": 5.0 } ] }, { "dimension_id": "TRANSPARENCY", "label": "Model-card and baseline transparency", "weight": 10, "earned": 10.0, "status": "PASS", "evidence": [ { "criterion": "Complete model card states purpose, target, data, leakage controls, limitations, and governance", "passed": true, "points": 5.0, "max_points": 5.0 }, { "criterion": "Scorecard names a frozen baseline and baseline-relative primary metric", "passed": true, "points": 5.0, "max_points": 5.0 } ] } ], "score": { "earned": 91.0, "maximum": 100.0, "normalized_10": 9.1, "grade": "A-" }, "critical_gates": { "overall_health_gate": true, "source_alignment_and_price_freshness_gate": true, "point_in_time_gate": true, "reconciliation_gate": true, "immutable_registry_gate": true, "runtime_permission_probe_gate": true, "decision_isolation_gate": true, "wow_isolation_gate": true, "no_operational_promotion_gate": true, "no_predictive_skill_claim_gate": true }, "critical_gates_passed": true, "eligibility": { "system_quality_grade_eligible": true, "status": "ELIGIBLE_SYSTEM_QUALITY_ONLY", "predictive_profitability_grade_eligible": false, "operational_promotion_eligible": false }, "accountability_status": "PARTIAL", "predictive_edge_status": "UNPROVEN", "calibration_status": "NOT_CALIBRATED", "profitability_claim": false, "operational_promotion_gate_passed": false, "max_points": 0, "decision_effect": "NONE", "wow_command_effect": "NONE" }, "semantic_fingerprint": "f02789ac9dd9e985a8c4fb4ad9d4bf44d1c7aaf717769666ce34abbe796354c4", "history": { "previous_fingerprint": "9edd1121961a8c58bcb0c7057503a37a5ff77f3397e8b49fcf250f1926819fb9", "semantic_changed": true, "changed_metric_ids": [], "vintage_recorded": true, "vintage_count": 32 } }