Now: 2026-07-26 01:24:40 CT
Status: PASS
Signal: TRADE LAB LIVE ORB — NO-CHASE FIRST BREAK
Bias: FIRST BREAK RETURNED INSIDE
Confidence: MEDIUM
Usable For Official Decision: True
ORB Window: 08:30-08:44:59
Latest Bar: 2026-07-24T13:04:00-05:00
Freshness: STALE
Recomputed Age: 2180.7 minutes
Live Fresh: False
Session Complete: False
Inference Allowed: False
Labels: NO-CHASE FIRST BREAK, CURVE CONFIRMED
Front Symbol: LEV6
ORB High: 222.625
ORB Low: 221.475
ORB Mid: 222.05
First Break: UP 2026-07-24T08:47:00-05:00
Close Back Inside: True
Midpoint Close Cross: False
Opposite Break: False
Curve: CURVE CONFIRMED
First ORB break closed back inside; do not chase.
No live inference - Trade Lab input is STALE.
Model: /opt/orb_black_box_live/model/orb_live_safe_rf_curve.joblib
Model accuracy: 72.0%
Balanced accuracy: 77.0%
Mode: SCHEDULED_RETRAIN_WHEN_SOURCE_ADVANCES
Auto-learning: True
Training source latest date: 2026-07-02
Training rows: 615
Raw Provider: Databento
Raw Databento Latest Date: 2026-07-02
Raw Databento Rows: 1290340
Model file time: 2026-07-06T18:52:04.991524-05:00
Raw Source: /opt/alpha/data/databento/parquet/le_continuous_ohlcv_1m_2020_2026.parquet
Source: /opt/alpha/research/le_orb_live_safe_snapshots_curve_2020_2026.csv
The service predicts from a saved model. The scheduled rebuild refreshes the research chain and retrains only when the snapshot source advances.
Use as warning context only. Earlier checkpoints are lower quality.
| Checkpoint CT | Role | Quality | Historical Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08:45 | Early read | Weak | Trap pick 51.9%; continuation pick 46.1% |
| 09:00 | Developing read | Low / Medium | Trap pick 58.6%; continuation pick 55.8% |
| 09:15 | Better read | Medium | Trap pick 70.2%; continuation pick 61.3% |
| 09:30 | Strong warning window | Medium / High | Trap pick 74.0%; continuation pick 65.2% |
| 10:00 | Best current checkpoint | Highest | Trap pick 82.9%; continuation pick 71.6% |
LE ORB BLACK BOX RANDOM FOREST FAST 2020-2026 ======================================================================== Source: /opt/alpha/research/le_orb_model_input_2020_2026.csv Train rows: 3,369 Test rows: 1,443 Split date: 2024-06-18 Actual target groups in test: - CONTINUATION: 626 - TRAP: 508 - FAILED_DRIVE_OR_FAKEOUT: 276 - NO_TRADE_OR_CHOP: 33 Black box picks: - CONTINUATION: 569 - TRAP: 508 - FAILED_DRIVE_OR_FAKEOUT: 333 - NO_TRADE_OR_CHOP: 33 Accuracy: 95.6% Balanced accuracy: 97.3% When black box picks X, actual result: CONTINUATION: - CONTINUATION: 566 (99.5%) - FAILED_DRIVE_OR_FAKEOUT: 3 (0.5%) FAILED_DRIVE_OR_FAKEOUT: - FAILED_DRIVE_OR_FAKEOUT: 273 (82.0%) - CONTINUATION: 60 (18.0%) NO_TRADE_OR_CHOP: - NO_TRADE_OR_CHOP: 33 (100.0%) TRAP: - TRAP: 508 (100.0%) Setup quality buckets: - HIGH: 943 - LOW: 391 - MEDIUM_HIGH: 71 - LOW_MEDIUM: 24 - MEDIUM: 14 Average black-box score by actual target: - CONTINUATION: 80.3 - FAILED_DRIVE_OR_FAKEOUT: 0.5 - NO_TRADE_OR_CHOP: 0.0 - TRAP: 94.7 Top 30 feature importances: - opposite_break_int: 0.1413 - first_break_side_NONE: 0.0906 - any_tick_return_inside_int: 0.0733 - front_continuation_back_confirm_int: 0.0529 - close_back_inside_int: 0.0522 - same_bar_return_inside_int: 0.0488 - majority_outcome_CONTINUATION_AFTER_CLOSE_RETURN: 0.0450 - majority_outcome_TRAP_OPPOSITE_BREAK: 0.0403 - all3_close_back_inside_int: 0.0332 - front_trap_back_confirm_int: 0.0315 - bars_to_opposite_break: 0.0298 - mfe_ticks_after_break: 0.0275 - all3_trap_int: 0.0265 - all3_opposite_break_int: 0.0259 - curve_confirmation_score: 0.0256 - curve_confirmation_bucket_HIGH_CONFIRMATION: 0.0225 - midpoint_close_cross_int: 0.0203
LE ORB LIVE-SAFE RANDOM FOREST WITH CURVE 2020-2026
========================================================================
Source: /opt/alpha/research/le_orb_live_safe_snapshots_curve_2020_2026.csv
Snapshot performance:
- 08:45:00: train=3,369, test=1,443, split=2024-06-18, accuracy=26.9%, balanced_accuracy=39.9%
- 09:00:00: train=3,369, test=1,443, split=2024-06-18, accuracy=35.8%, balanced_accuracy=49.2%
- 09:15:00: train=3,369, test=1,443, split=2024-06-18, accuracy=46.5%, balanced_accuracy=56.9%
- 09:30:00: train=3,369, test=1,443, split=2024-06-18, accuracy=52.9%, balanced_accuracy=61.6%
- 10:00:00: train=3,369, test=1,443, split=2024-06-18, accuracy=61.0%, balanced_accuracy=67.1%
Prediction quality by snapshot:
08:45:00:
Picks:
- FAILED_DRIVE_OR_FAKEOUT: 500
- NO_TRADE_OR_CHOP: 383
- CONTINUATION: 319
- TRAP: 241
When model picks X, actual result:
CONTINUATION:
- CONTINUATION: 147 (46.1%)
- TRAP: 123 (38.6%)
- FAILED_DRIVE_OR_FAKEOUT: 47 (14.7%)
- NO_TRADE_OR_CHOP: 2 (0.6%)
FAILED_DRIVE_OR_FAKEOUT:
- CONTINUATION: 226 (45.2%)
- TRAP: 179 (35.8%)
- FAILED_DRIVE_OR_FAKEOUT: 90 (18.0%)
- NO_TRADE_OR_CHOP: 5 (1.0%)
NO_TRADE_OR_CHOP:
- CONTINUATION: 166 (43.3%)
- FAILED_DRIVE_OR_FAKEOUT: 110 (28.7%)
- TRAP: 81 (21.1%)
- NO_TRADE_OR_CHOP: 26 (6.8%)
TRAP:
- TRAP: 125 (51.9%)
- CONTINUATION: 87 (36.1%)
- FAILED_DRIVE_OR_FAKEOUT: 29 (12.0%)
09:00:00:
Picks:
- NO_TRADE_OR_CHOP: 409
- CONTINUATION: 396
- TRAP: 321
- FAILED_DRIVE_OR_FAKEOUT: 317
When model picks X, actual result:
CONTINUATION:
- CONTINUATION: 221 (55.8%)
- TRAP: 126 (31.8%)
- FAILED_DRIVE_OR_FAKEOUT: 49 (12.4%)
FAILED_DRIVE_OR_FAKEOUT:
- CONTINUATION: 140 (44.2%)
- TRAP: 100 (31.5%)
- FAILED_DRIVE_OR_FAKEOUT: 76 (24.0%)
- NO_TRADE_OR_CHOP: 1 (0.3%)
NO_TRADE_OR_CHOP:
- CONTINUATION: 160 (39.1%)
- FAILED_DRIVE_OR_FAKEOUT: 123 (30.1%)
- TRAP: 94 (23.0%)
- NO_TRADE_OR_CHOP: 32 (7.8%)
TRAP:
- TRAP: 188 (58.6%)
- CONTINUATION: 105 (32.7%)
- FAILED_DRIVE_OR_FAKEOUT: 28 (8.7%)
09:15:00:
Picks:
- CONTINUATION: 553
- FAILED_DRIVE_OR_FAKEOUT: 314
- TRAP: 299
- NO_TRADE_OR_CHOP: 277
When model picks X, actual result:
CONTINUATION:
- CONTINUATION: 339 (61.3%)
- TRAP: 150 (27.1%)
- FAILED_DRIVE_OR_FAKEOUT: 64 (11.6%)
FAILED_DRIVE_OR_FAKEOUT:
- CONTINUATION: 120 (38.2%)
- TRAP: 105 (33.4%)
- FAILED_DRIVE_OR_FAKEOUT: 89 (28.3%)
NO_TRADE_OR_CHOP:
- CONTINUATION: 108 (39.0%)
- FAILED_DRIVE_OR_FAKEOUT: 93 (33.6%)
- TRAP: 43 (15.5%)
- NO_TRADE_OR_CHOP: 33 (11.9%)
TRAP:
- TRAP: 210 (70.2%)
- CONTINUATION: 59 (19.7%)
- FAILED_DRIVE_OR_FAKEOUT: 30 (10.0%)
09:30:00:
Picks:
- CONTINUATION: 566
- TRAP: 358
- FAILED_DRIVE_OR_FAKEOUT: 318
- NO_TRADE_OR_CHOP: 201
When model picks X, actual result:
CONTINUATION:
- CONTINUATION: 369 (65.2%)
- TRAP: 123 (21.7%)
- FAILED_DRIVE_OR_FAKEOUT: 74 (13.1%)
FAILED_DRIVE_OR_FAKEOUT:
- CONTINUATION: 120 (37.7%)
- TRAP: 101 (31.8%)
- FAILED_DRIVE_OR_FAKEOUT: 97 (30.5%)
NO_TRADE_OR_CHOP:
- FAILED_DRIVE_OR_FAKEOUT: 76 (37.8%)
- CONTINUATION: 73 (36.3%)
- NO_TRADE_OR_CHOP: 33 (16.4%)
- TRAP: 19 (9.5%)
TRAP:
- TRAP: 265 (74.0%)
- CONTINUATION: 64 (17.9%)
- FAILED_DRIVE_OR_FAKEOUT: 29 (8.1%)
10:00:00:
Picks:
- CONTINUATION: 567
- TRAP: 410
- FAILED_DRIVE_OR_FAKEOUT: 310
- NO_TRADE_OR_CHOP: 156
When model picks X, actual result:
CONTINUATION:
- CONTINUATION: 406 (71.6%)
- TRAP: 82 (14.5%)
- FAILED_DRIVE_OR_FAKEOUT: 79 (13.9%)
FAILED_DRIVE_OR_FAKEOUT:
- CONTINUATION: 131 (42.3%)
- FAILED_DRIVE_OR_FAKEOUT: 101 (32.6%)
- TRAP: 78 (25.2%)
NO_TRADE_OR_CHOP:
- FAILED_DRIVE_OR_FAKEOUT: 62 (39.7%)
- CONTINUATION: 53 (34.0%)
- NO_TRADE_OR_CHOP: 33 (21.2%)
- TRAP: 8 (5.1%)
TRAP:
- TRAP: 340 (82.9%)
- CONTINUATION: 36 (8.8%)
- FAILED_DRIVE_OR_FAKEOUT: 34 (8.3%)
Average live-safe score by snapshot and actual target:
- 08:45:00 CONTINUATION: 3.3
- 08:45:00 FAILED_DRIVE_OR_FAKEOUT: 2.2
- 08:45:00 NO_TRADE_OR_CHOP: 0.0