August Retracement Model

Trigger: August Live Cattle open-to-close move ≥ 60 ticks (1.50 points).
Updated CT: 2026-06-09T08:15:21-05:00
Research card only — confirm with current Alpha drivers before using as a trade signal.
Calendar / Data Integrity Guard

SIGNAL ALLOWED - OI DATE MATCHED

Calendar/data are acceptable and August OI date matches the setup date. OI read: OI DOWN: LIQUIDATION / BOUNCE RISK HIGHER

CalendarNORMAL TRADING DAY
Expected Trading DayTrue
Latest Bar2026-06-08
Bar Age1
Data StatusRECENT / PRIOR TRADING DAY
SourceDATABENTO LIVE/RECENT SOURCE
OIREADY
OI Date2026-06-08
OI Change-1957.0
OI ReadOI DOWN: LIQUIDATION / BOUNCE RISK HIGHER
Current Detected Setup

RECENT ACTIVE SETUP

Monday 60+ tick August down close historically favors bounce-first. Do not chase the break.

LOOK FOR BOUNCE / DO NOT CHASE BREAK
Date2026-06-08
SymbolLEQ6
DirectionDOWN CLOSE
Move Ticks213.0
FreshnessRECENT
Age Days1
ConfidenceHIGH
Retrace43.6
Continuation17.6
Edge26.0
Research-only. Confirm with current OI, cash/boxed beef, macro, ORB, and live market reaction before trading.
Retracement Progress

PENDING_NEXT_SESSION_DATA

Event Close236.3
25% Target237.65
50% Target239.0
75% Target240.35
100% Target241.7
Continuation +50235.05
Latest Price
Post Low
Post High
Retrace %
FORWARD_DOWN_CLOSE 3D: LOOK FOR BOUNCE / DO NOT CHASE BREAK 5D: LOOK FOR BOUNCE / DO NOT CHASE BREAK
FORWARD_UP_CLOSE 3D: RESPECT CONTINUATION / DO NOT FADE EARLY 5D: RESPECT CONTINUATION / DO NOT FADE EARLY

Monday — FORWARD_UP_CLOSE

WAIT / NO CLEAR EDGE

LOW

Monday setup has no clear edge.

Retrace/Bounce38.1
Continuation40.4
Edge-2.2
Events48
Recent examples
2026-03-16 LEQ6 CONTINUATION_ONLY Move: 116.0 ticks Retrace: 48.0 ticks Continuation: 95.0 ticks
2026-03-30 LEQ6 CONTINUATION_ONLY Move: 61.0 ticks Retrace: 27.0 ticks Continuation: 247.0 ticks
2026-04-27 LEQ6 CONTINUATION_ONLY Move: 145.0 ticks Retrace: 67.0 ticks Continuation: 241.0 ticks

Tuesday — FORWARD_UP_CLOSE

RESPECT CONTINUATION / DO NOT FADE EARLY

HIGH

Tuesday 60+ tick August up close historically favors continuation first. Do not fade early.

Retrace/Bounce18.8
Continuation48.7
Edge-29.9
Events51
Recent examples
2026-03-31 LEQ6 CONTINUATION_FIRST_THEN_RETRACE Move: 112.0 ticks Retrace: 61.0 ticks Continuation: 168.0 ticks
2026-04-14 LEQ6 RETRACE_ONLY Move: 81.0 ticks Retrace: 305.0 ticks Continuation: 26.0 ticks
2026-04-28 LEQ6 CONTINUATION_FIRST_THEN_RETRACE Move: 133.0 ticks Retrace: 195.0 ticks Continuation: 113.0 ticks

Wednesday — FORWARD_UP_CLOSE

LOOK FOR RETRACE / DO NOT CHASE RALLY

MEDIUM

Wednesday 60+ tick August up close historically favors retrace-first. Do not chase the rally.

Retrace/Bounce49.0
Continuation34.3
Edge14.7
Events44
Recent examples
2026-03-18 LEQ6 RETRACE_FIRST_THEN_CONTINUATION Move: 67.0 ticks Retrace: 131.0 ticks Continuation: 64.0 ticks
2026-05-13 LEQ6 CONTINUATION_FIRST_THEN_RETRACE Move: 166.0 ticks Retrace: 141.0 ticks Continuation: 149.0 ticks
2026-05-27 LEQ6 RETRACE_ONLY Move: 119.0 ticks Retrace: 284.0 ticks Continuation: 30.0 ticks

Thursday — FORWARD_UP_CLOSE

RESPECT CONTINUATION / DO NOT FADE EARLY

HIGH

Thursday 60+ tick August up close historically favors continuation first. Do not fade early.

Retrace/Bounce16.3
Continuation53.5
Edge-37.2
Events35
Recent examples
2026-04-09 LEQ6 CONTINUATION_FIRST_THEN_RETRACE Move: 61.0 ticks Retrace: 63.0 ticks Continuation: 162.0 ticks
2026-04-23 LEQ6 CONTINUATION_ONLY Move: 82.0 ticks Retrace: -9.0 ticks Continuation: 444.0 ticks
2026-06-04 LEQ6 CONTINUATION_FIRST_THEN_RETRACE Move: 289.0 ticks Retrace: 217.0 ticks Continuation: 142.0 ticks

Friday — FORWARD_UP_CLOSE

LOOK FOR RETRACE / DO NOT CHASE RALLY

MEDIUM

Friday 60+ tick August up close historically favors retrace-first. Do not chase the rally.

Retrace/Bounce40.8
Continuation22.6
Edge18.2
Events33
Recent examples
2026-01-02 LEQ6 CONTINUATION_ONLY Move: 134.0 ticks Retrace: 56.0 ticks Continuation: 96.0 ticks
2026-03-27 LEQ6 CONTINUATION_ONLY Move: 129.0 ticks Retrace: 4.0 ticks Continuation: 304.0 ticks
2026-05-15 LEQ6 SAME_DAY_BOTH_HIT Move: 92.0 ticks Retrace: 448.0 ticks Continuation: 78.0 ticks

Monday — FORWARD_DOWN_CLOSE

LOOK FOR BOUNCE / DO NOT CHASE BREAK

HIGH

Monday 60+ tick August down close historically favors bounce-first. Do not chase the break.

Retrace/Bounce43.6
Continuation17.6
Edge26.0
Events22
Recent examples
2025-12-01 LEQ6 RETRACE_ONLY Move: 67.0 ticks Retrace: 334.0 ticks Continuation: -16.0 ticks
2026-02-23 LEQ6 CONTINUATION_FIRST_THEN_RETRACE Move: 71.0 ticks Retrace: 99.0 ticks Continuation: 365.0 ticks
2026-05-18 LEQ6 RETRACE_FIRST_THEN_CONTINUATION Move: 70.0 ticks Retrace: 49.0 ticks Continuation: 412.0 ticks

Tuesday — FORWARD_DOWN_CLOSE

LOOK FOR BOUNCE / DO NOT CHASE BREAK

HIGH

Tuesday 60+ tick August down close historically favors bounce-first. Do not chase the break.

Retrace/Bounce50.1
Continuation19.1
Edge31.0
Events33
Recent examples
2025-11-04 LEQ6 CONTINUATION_FIRST_THEN_RETRACE Move: 183.0 ticks Retrace: 164.0 ticks Continuation: 375.0 ticks
2025-11-11 LEQ6 CONTINUATION_ONLY Move: 80.0 ticks Retrace: 20.0 ticks Continuation: 432.0 ticks
2026-05-12 LEQ6 RETRACE_ONLY Move: 196.0 ticks Retrace: 365.0 ticks Continuation: 13.0 ticks

Wednesday — FORWARD_DOWN_CLOSE

RESPECT CONTINUATION LOWER / DO NOT CATCH FALLING KNIFE

HIGH

Wednesday 60+ tick August down close historically favors downside continuation first.

Retrace/Bounce19.8
Continuation57.3
Edge-37.5
Events36
Recent examples
2025-11-05 LEQ6 CONTINUATION_FIRST_THEN_RETRACE Move: 292.0 ticks Retrace: 436.0 ticks Continuation: 103.0 ticks
2025-11-19 LEQ6 CONTINUATION_ONLY Move: 114.0 ticks Retrace: 52.0 ticks Continuation: 427.0 ticks
2026-05-20 LEQ6 CONTINUATION_ONLY Move: 90.0 ticks Retrace: 13.0 ticks Continuation: 334.0 ticks

Thursday — FORWARD_DOWN_CLOSE

LOOK FOR BOUNCE / DO NOT CHASE BREAK

HIGH

Thursday 60+ tick August down close historically favors bounce-first. Do not chase the break.

Retrace/Bounce50.9
Continuation8.9
Edge42.0
Events44
Recent examples
2026-05-07 LEQ6 SAME_DAY_BOTH_HIT Move: 93.0 ticks Retrace: 120.0 ticks Continuation: 256.0 ticks
2026-05-14 LEQ6 RETRACE_FIRST_THEN_CONTINUATION Move: 69.0 ticks Retrace: 143.0 ticks Continuation: 306.0 ticks
2026-05-21 LEQ6 CONTINUATION_FIRST_THEN_RETRACE Move: 214.0 ticks Retrace: 149.0 ticks Continuation: 133.0 ticks

Friday — FORWARD_DOWN_CLOSE

LOOK FOR BOUNCE / DO NOT CHASE BREAK

MEDIUM

Friday 60+ tick August down close historically favors bounce-first. Do not chase the break.

Retrace/Bounce43.2
Continuation19.6
Edge23.6
Events39
Recent examples
2026-03-06 LEQ6 CONTINUATION_ONLY Move: 150.0 ticks Retrace: -2.0 ticks Continuation: 269.0 ticks
2026-05-08 LEQ6 SAME_DAY_BOTH_HIT Move: 132.0 ticks Retrace: 202.0 ticks Continuation: 163.0 ticks
2026-05-29 LEQ6 RETRACE_FIRST_THEN_CONTINUATION Move: 79.0 ticks Retrace: 241.0 ticks Continuation: 209.0 ticks