USDA actuals versus last year and expectations
Exact official head counts first; rounded percentages are secondary.
Full head-count comparison
Alpha public-data estimate
Statistical baseline — separate from analyst consensus and not a trade signal.
Prior out-of-sample validation
Alpha direct contributor panel
Direct submissions only — separate from Alpha’s model and external media surveys.
Confirmed contributors
WSJ / Dow Jones analyst survey comparison
External survey panel
External survey archive
Release-aligned fixed-contract paths
Each path is rebased to the last fixed-contract close before the 3:00 p.m. ET report. Session +1 is the next actual livestock trading day.
Report pressure through time
Positive values mean more model-relative feedlot supply pressure; negative values mean more support.
Observed price response through time
Fixed near contract returns from the pre-report close. Missing long horizons are not rolled or forward-filled.
Current release return/price distribution
Expanding walk-forward ridge forecasts. Bands use prior OOS residuals when enough exist; otherwise they are marked training-residual bands.
Closest prior report states
Distance uses only report and pre-event inputs. Future returns never enter analog selection.
Walk-forward diagnostics
MAE skill compares with an expanding historical-mean forecast. A negative value means the COF model is worse.
Official report history and observed reaction
Source and guardrails
USDA data are immutable ESMIS TXT release vintages with SHA-256 provenance. Alpha’s public-data estimate uses only prior, as-released USDA history; its 80% interval is empirical model error, not an analyst range. The direct contributor panel accepts only identified, permissioned submissions and withholds an aggregate below three contributors. The WSJ / Dow Jones lane is an optional external comparison and never carries an old month forward. None of these expectation lanes creates a live-trade signal or enters the price-response model. Futures are Databento fixed-contract daily bars selected with pre-release volume only.