ALPHA CURRENT

Freshness First. Main dashboard is slower background context; use ORB Live Read for trading-day ORB/trap data.
Current CT: 2026-06-09 10:09:55 CT

Official Decision

PARTIAL

Official Read: LIVE TRADE LAB AVAILABLE

Live Trade Status: ENABLED

Usable: True

Research Context: orb_research=PASS, open_interest=PASS, cot_positioning=PASS, boxed_beef=WATCH, cash_cattle=PASS, cattle_on_feed=PASS, macro_watch=WATCH, august_retracement=PASS

Reason: Trade Lab is live-current. Research context remains separate background confirmation.

ORB Live Read

FOCUSED PAGE

Daily Live/Feeder ORB, trap/reversal guard, Tomorrow OI Review, Next Day Historical, Decision Engine, Execution Gate, Pro Data, and Open Interest are grouped on one page.

Use this page for the trading-day read. The main dashboard stays for slower background modules.

Open ORB Live Read

August Seasonal

BULLISH SEASONAL - OI NOT CONFIRMING SHORT TERM

Usable:

Source:

Latest Data CT:

Last Refresh CT:

Age Seconds:

Signal:

Bias: BULLISH SEASONAL / OI WARNING

Confidence:

Role: Research only - directional wind, not standalone trade signal.

Contract Focus: August Live Cattle

Flat Window: 06-20 to 07-30

Flat Win Rate: 1.0

Flat Avg Move: 7.725 pts

Flat Recent 3Y Avg: 12.317 pts

Spread Confirm: AUG_MINUS_OCT

Spread Window: 07-13 to 08-17

Spread Avg Move: 2.57 pts

Overlap: Best confirmed overlap is mid-July into late July.

Combined Score: 98.4

OI Symbol: LEQ6

OI Date:

OI Verdict: PRICE UP BUT OI FELL - SHORT COVER / NOT FRESH CONFIRMATION

5D Price / OI: pts /

Trade Meaning: Seasonal structure is bullish, but current Databento OI must confirm before upgrading live conviction. Use as directional wind only. Favor buy-break logic only if spreads, cash/boxed beef, ORB, and fresh OI support it.

Warnings:
Research only: not a standalone trade signal.
Seasonal structure stays separate from trade execution.
OI must come from current Databento open_interest_status.json, not stale research files.
Latest OI is prior-day participation context, not live intraday confirmation.
Late July/August OI declines can be roll/expiration distortion, not always bearish.

COT Positioning

PASS

Usable: True

Source: /opt/alpha/imported_data/data/cot_cattle.csv

Latest Data CT: 2026-06-02

Last Refresh CT: 2026-06-09T07:55:06.800310-05:00

Age Seconds:

Signal: ELEVATED FUND LONG CROWDING

Bias: BULLISH TREND / WATCH LIQUIDATION RISK

Confidence: MEDIUM

Raw COT Report Date: 2026-06-02

COT OI: 343287.0

MM Long: 129374.0

MM Short: 13267.0

MM Net: 116107.0

MM Net % OI: 33.82

Producer/Merchant Net: -122247.0

Producer/Merchant Net % OI: -35.61

Swap Net: 55581.0

Other Reportable Net: -30585.0

MM Net Rank All History: 89.1

MM Net % OI Rank All History: 92.9

Freshness Age Days: 7

COT Index Date: 2026-06-02

COT Index MM Net: +116,107 | 33.82%

COT Index 6M / 36M / 15Y: 55.5% / 81.3% / 84.8%

Post-COT OI Date: 2026-06-05

Post-COT OI Gap: -13,448

Post-COT Verdict: Post-COT OI contracted; liquidation or roll pressure after the COT report.

Latest COT report is current for weekly positioning context. Raw COT CSV and COT index context are aligned. Latest raw COT report 2026-06-02: MM net 116107.0 (33.82% of OI), Producer/Merchant net -122247.0 (-35.61% of OI), COT OI 343287.0. COT module is weekly positioning context only and does not create live trade signals.

Boxed Beef

WATCH

Usable: True

Source: /opt/alpha/imported_data/data/boxed_beef_history.csv

Latest Data CT: 2026-06-08 AFTERNOON

Last Refresh CT: 2026-06-09T07:55:01.693487-05:00

Age Seconds:

Signal: CHOICE AND SELECT LOWER

Bias: DEMAND WEAKNESS

Confidence: LOW

Daily Report: 2026-06-08 AFTERNOON

Report Code: LM_XB403

Choice: 392.2

Select: 378.09

Choice/Select Spread: 14.110000000000014

Choice Change: -0.5

Select Change: -4.6

Loads: 103.01

Choice Loads: 77.64

Select Loads: 21.28

Morning Today Loaded: False

Afternoon Today Loaded: False

Morning Window: 10:45-11:30 CT

Afternoon Window: 15:00-15:45 CT

Demand Score Context: SECONDARY / MAY NOT MATCH LATEST SESSION

Demand Score Date: 2026-06-08

Demand Score: 60

Demand Signal: Mixed boxed beef confirmation

Weekly Cutout Detail: REFERENCE ONLY

Using yesterday's latest boxed beef as background; today's morning report not expected yet. Latest daily report: 2026-06-08 AFTERNOON, Choice 392.2, Select 378.09, Spread 14.110000000000014, Loads 103.01. Weekly Tuesday cutout detail is kept separate and does not overwrite daily boxed beef freshness.

Cash Cattle

PASS

Usable: True

Source: /opt/alpha_current/data/cash_cattle/cash_cattle_index.csv

Latest Data CT: 2026-06-08 daily

Last Refresh CT: 2026-06-09T07:55:02.946668-05:00

Age Seconds:

Signal: NEUTRAL / TWO-SIDED CASH

Bias: MIXED CASH LEVERAGE

Confidence: MEDIUM

Primary Report: 2026-06-08 daily

Code: LM_CT100

Blended Live Cash: 256.47

Last Week: 256.81

Change vs Last Week: -0.34

Leverage: Mixed

Daily Cash: 2026-06-08 | 256.47 | Chg -0.34

Weekly Cash: 2026-06-08 | 256.47 | Chg -0.34

Freshness Age Days: 1

Latest cash cattle index is current enough for background use. Latest daily cash report date 2026-06-08: blended live cash 256.47, change vs last week -0.34, signal NEUTRAL / TWO-SIDED CASH, leverage Mixed. Daily live sample quality: GOOD SAMPLE; daily live head count 16288. Weekly live FOB range 253.00 - 258.00; Cash module is background context only and does not create live trade signals.

Cattle On Feed

PASS

Usable: True

Source:

Latest Data CT:

Last Refresh CT: 2026-06-09T07:55:02.998793-05:00

Age Seconds:

Signal: BEARISH COF — HIGHER ON-FEED, HIGHER PLACEMENTS, LOWER MARKETINGS

Bias: BEARISH SUPPLY / FEEDLOT INVENTORY PRESSURE

Confidence: MEDIUM

Latest Report Month:

On Feed Head:

Placements Head:

Marketings Head:

Other Disappearance:

Net Feedlot Flow:

3-Month Net Flow:

Previous Month: | On Feed

On Feed Change vs Previous:

Full Report Loaded:

Freshness Age Days:

Source:

Latest May 2026 Cattle on Feed context loaded: higher on-feed inventory, higher placements, and lower marketings. Use as bearish monthly background only; not a standalone intraday trade trigger.

Drought Maps

UNAVAILABLE

Usable: False

Source:

Latest Data CT:

Last Refresh CT: 2026-05-21T05:39:28.605350-05:00

Age Seconds:

Signal:

Bias:

Confidence:

Module not built yet in Alpha Current.

Macro Watch

WATCH

Usable: True

Source: /opt/alpha_current/data/macro_watch_flags.csv

Latest Data CT: 2026-05-22

Last Refresh CT: 2026-06-09T07:55:03.068005-05:00

Age Seconds:

Signal: MACRO WATCH ACTIVE

Bias: TWO-SIDED

Confidence: LOW

Highest Bucket: Imports / Exports

Highest Headline: Monitor broad beef import/export headlines

Highest Bias: TWO-SIDED

Active/Watch Count: 7

Bucket Status Bias Headline Notes
USDA / Brooke Rollins / Trump Beef PolicyNO SHOCKNEUTRALNo confirmed new beef policy shockMonitor USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins and Trump beef policy comments
Big Four Packer PressureNO SHOCKNEUTRALNo confirmed new Big Four packer shockMonitor Tyson Cargill JBS National Beef plant or policy shocks
Imports / ExportsWATCHTWO-SIDEDMonitor broad beef import/export headlinesImports can pressure supply bearish; exports can support demand bullish
Screwworm / Mexico BorderWATCHBULLISH SUPPLY RISKMonitor screwworm and Mexico border cattle movement riskEscalates on confirmed border restriction animal-health disruption or cattle flow impact
Brazil BeefWATCHBEARISH IMPORT SUPPLY RISKMonitor Brazil beef imports tariff quota and access headlinesEscalates on confirmed import relief tariff change or access expansion
Argentina BeefWATCHBEARISH IMPORT SUPPLY RISKMonitor Argentina beef import/export access headlinesEscalates on confirmed U.S. import access or tariff policy change
Australia BeefWATCHBEARISH IMPORT SUPPLY RISKMonitor Australia beef import/export supply headlinesEscalates on confirmed import flow shift or supply expansion
China Beef AccessWATCHBULLISH EXPORT DEMAND RISKMonitor China U.S. beef plant licenses customs access and exportsEscalates on confirmed U.S. beef access license renewal customs approval or suspension
Japan Beef AccessWATCHBULLISH EXPORT DEMAND RISKMonitor Japan beef export demand and policy headlinesEscalates on confirmed export access demand policy or tariff change

Macro Watch highest status is WATCH. This is headline/shock context only and does not create a trade signal by itself.