COF marketing run rate
DATAPASSlatest monthly marketings * 14 / calendar days in activity month
Current · USDA NASS Cattle on FeedExisting Alpha reads, compressed for visual scanning. No scoring or trade logic is changed.
Quote move · completed-daily relationship
Read: QUIET — 60-day relationships are weak across corn, the dollar, and rates.
What changed: USDA scheduled a conditional Douglas, Arizona cattle-port reopening for 2026-08-24; southern cattle ports remain closed today, while Santa Teresa and Columbus have no confirmed opening dates. The latest COF report showed 11.370M on feed (+246K; +2.211% YoY), 1.399M placements (-42K; -2.915% YoY), and 1.661M marketings (-46K; -2.695% YoY); placements were -13.2K head versus the stored release-matched expectation.
Dominant driver: Live cash change versus last week: -8.21 usd_per_cwt
Tuesday cut priority: Rib -3.4856 $/cwt; 44.659% of absolute primal impact
Key contradiction: Pipeline tightening conflicts with current cash weakness.
Context score: -53.2 Confidence: LOW
Context score: -24.4 Confidence: MEDIUM
Context score: -12.6 Confidence: MEDIUM
Guardrail: Report factors are typed by horizon and contribute zero points to the intraday execution engine until their own walk-forward promotion gate passes.
What changed: No semantic structural change since the prior frozen vintage.
Leading change alert: ACTIVE Heavier carcasses are replacing part of the beef tonnage lost to lower slaughter.
Placement cohort clock: -42000 head-equivalent YoY across mapped windows; largest tightening LEZ6 -27065.6.
Net beef-supply change: -5.0491%
Official Decision effect: NONE
WOW Command effect: NONE
Pricing model: RESEARCH_ONLY_UNVALIDATED Conditional estimates: 12
Frozen forecasts: 12 Resolved scorecard observations: 0
System quality: 9.1/10 ELIGIBLE_SYSTEM_QUALITY_ONLY Predictive edge: UNPROVEN
Futures implications: UNVALIDATED HYPOTHESES Maximum execution points: 0
This module cannot change, delay, block, confirm, or execute WOW Command. It writes structural-research files only.
Daily Live/Feeder ORB, trap/reversal guard, Tomorrow OI Review, Next Day Historical, Decision Engine, Execution Gate, Pro Data, and Open Interest are grouped on one page.
Use this page for the trading-day read. The main dashboard stays for slower background modules.
Open Execution Console Open ORB Live Read Open Black Box Open iPhone App Private Trade Blotter
U.S. cattle kill-capacity proxy from USDA/NASS federally inspected weekly slaughter, with shift regimes and plant/labor/herd-supply event notes.
Uses observed high-throughput p95 weekly kill as the public-data capacity proxy; separate from proprietary plant nameplate capacity.
Open older Alpha pages through a separate namespace. Legacy pages are proxied under /legacy-alpha and do not replace Alpha Current routes or live ORB outputs.
Use this for reference and older tools. Current live decisions still come only from Alpha Current cards and execution remains blocked.
Role: Research only - directional wind, not standalone trade signal.
Contract Focus: August Live Cattle
Flat Window: 06-20 to 07-30
Flat Win Rate: 1.0
Flat Avg Move: 7.725 pts
Flat Recent 3Y Avg: 12.317 pts
Spread Confirm: AUG_MINUS_OCT
Spread Window: 07-13 to 08-17
Spread Avg Move: 2.57 pts
Overlap: Best confirmed overlap is mid-July into late July.
Combined Score: 98.4
OI Symbol: LEQ6
OI Date:
OI Verdict: CURRENT OI SOFTENING - DOES NOT CONFIRM BULLISH SEASONAL
5D Price / OI: pts /
Trade Meaning: Seasonal structure is bullish, but current Databento OI must confirm before upgrading live conviction. Use as directional wind only. Favor buy-break logic only if spreads, cash/boxed beef, ORB, and fresh OI support it.
Warnings:
Research only: not a standalone trade signal.
Seasonal structure stays separate from trade execution.
OI must come from current Databento open_interest_status.json, not stale research files.
Latest OI is prior-day participation context, not live intraday confirmation.
Late July/August OI declines can be roll/expiration distortion, not always bearish.
Usable:
Latest Data CT:
Last Refresh CT:
Age Seconds:
Source:
Latest COT report is current for weekly positioning context. Raw COT CSV and COT index context are aligned. Latest raw COT report 2026-07-21: MM net 75681.0 (24.97% of OI), Producer/Merchant net -112021.0 (-36.96% of OI), COT OI 303089.0. COT module is weekly positioning context only and does not create live trade signals.
Raw COT Report Date: 2026-07-21
COT OI: 303089.0
MM Long: 90219.0
MM Short: 14538.0
MM Net: 75681.0
MM Net % OI: 24.97
Producer/Merchant Net: -112021.0
Producer/Merchant Net % OI: -36.96
Swap Net: 63096.0
Other Reportable Net: -20667.0
MM Net Rank All History: 62.1
MM Net % OI Rank All History: 66.9
Freshness Age Days: 3
COT Index Date: 2026-07-21
COT Index MM Net: +75,681 | 24.97%
COT Index 6M / 36M / 15Y: 0.0% / 56.4% / 64.5%
Post-COT OI Date: 2026-07-23
Post-COT OI Gap: +2,927
Post-COT Verdict: Post-COT OI is near flat; positioning confirmation is mixed.
Usable: True
Latest Data CT: 2026-07-21
Last Refresh CT: 2026-07-24T18:30:53.172801-05:00
Age Seconds:
Source: /opt/alpha/imported_data/data/cot_cattle.csv
Display-only research panel. Hypothetical throttle is log-only and drives nothing.
Panel: COT MULTI-WINDOW — COMMERCIAL (PM+SWAP)
Staleness: as-of age 3d / threshold 14d — OK
Live Cattle — As-Of: 2026-07-21
Live Cattle PM+Swap Net % OI: -16.14
Live Cattle Index 20r / 52w / 156w: 100.0 (UPPER EXTREME) / 100.0 (UPPER EXTREME) / 51.5 (MIDDLE RANGE)
Live Cattle PM-Only 156w Cross-Check: 40.9 — CONFIRMS
Feeder Cattle — As-Of: 2026-07-21
Feeder Cattle PM+Swap Net % OI: 5.99
Feeder Cattle Index 20r / 52w / 156w: 100.0 (UPPER EXTREME) / 100.0 (UPPER EXTREME) / 65.0 (UPPER RANGE)
Feeder Cattle PM-Only 156w Cross-Check: 39.9 — DIVERGES
Throttle (HYPOTHETICAL — LOG ONLY): LIGHTENED
Role: Display-only research panel. Not wired to signal-summary, validators, or any decision/car path.
Usable: False
Latest Data CT: 2026-07-21
Last Refresh CT: 2026-07-24 18:30:53 CT
Age Seconds:
Source: /opt/alpha/imported_data/data/cot_cattle.csv
Latest confirmed afternoon boxed beef report is loaded for today. Latest daily report: 2026-07-24 AFTERNOON, Choice 361.24, Select 346.71, Spread 14.53. Complete USDA movement components are in the Decision Center. Weekly Tuesday cutout detail is kept separate and does not overwrite daily boxed beef freshness.
| Metric | Current | WoW vs 2026-07-17 | 30D vs 2026-06-24 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Choice | $361.24 | DOWN -5.57 | DOWN -37.70 |
| Select | $346.71 | DOWN -8.58 | DOWN -31.43 |
| Choice/Select spread | $14.53 | UP +3.01 | DOWN -6.27 |
| Movement | 131.37 loads | UP +20.19 loads | UP +33.55 loads |
Largest yield-weighted Choice drivers: Round -2.61, Loin -2.47, Rib +1.53 $/cwt Choice contribution.
Futures research: NO VALIDATED FUTURES EDGE · same-window movement is context, not causation.
Freshness: ALIGNED PM FINALS · daily PM data and Tuesday sampling remain separate.
Tuesday archive: 1304 actual USDA PM finals sampled on Tuesdays, 2001-04-03 to 2026-07-21.
Usable: True
Latest Data CT: 2026-07-24 AFTERNOON
Last Refresh CT: 2026-07-24T18:30:01.690433-05:00
Age Seconds:
Source: /opt/alpha/imported_data/data/boxed_beef_history.csv
Latest USDA publication is current enough for background use. Latest daily publication 2026-07-24 covers Trade recap for 2026-07-23; official all-beef LIVE FOB cash is 230.59 on 2794 head. No fresh, adequately sampled comparable move is available, so cash is not directionally scored. Current-week national WTD is 36627; publicly located 29890; unallocated 6737 through 2026-07-24T13:30:00-05:00. Cash is background context and does not create a live trade signal by itself.
Comparable steer/heifer series: $230.29 vs $238.50 · change -8.21. This comparison excludes mixed cattle and is not the headline.
Directional context: DISPLAY ONLY / INSUFFICIENT DIRECTIONAL SAMPLE · INSUFFICIENT DATA · leverage Unknown · comparable change -8.21 on 2,794 head.
Completed weekly reference: official $238.24; comparable $238.22 vs $247.95 (-9.73). Period ending .
Coverage: PM through 2026-07-24T13:30:00-05:00. Week begins Monday 09:30 CT.
| National WTD | Publicly located WTD | Unallocated / not publicly attributable |
|---|---|---|
| 36,627 | 29,890 | 6,737 |
National WTD is the published total. Regional sum is a disclosed lower bound; confidential, null, stale, and scope differences remain unallocated and are not assigned to a location.
| Area / status | WTD head | Latest public window detail | Cutoff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas / Oklahoma / New Mexico CONFIDENTIAL / NOT PUBLIC | Not publicly reported | CONFIDENTIAL / NOT PUBLIC | SUMMARY 2026-07-23T09:30:00-05:00 |
| Kansas OBSERVED | 1,573 | 351 beef LIVE FOB at $230.00–$231.00 (avg $230.34) | PM 2026-07-24T13:30:00-05:00 |
| Nebraska OBSERVED | 15,009 | 129 beef DRESSED DELIVERED at $365.00 (avg $365.00) | PM 2026-07-24T13:30:00-05:00 |
| Colorado STALE / UNAVAILABLE | Not publicly reported | STALE / UNAVAILABLE | N/A No current cutoff |
| Iowa / Minnesota (Western Cornbelt) OBSERVED | 13,308 | 169 beef LIVE FOB at $230.00–$232.00 (avg $230.71) 12 beef LIVE DELIVERED at $230.00 (avg $230.00) 38 beef DRESSED DELIVERED at $360.00 (avg $360.00) | PM 2026-07-24T13:30:00-05:00 |
Freshness age: 0 calendar day(s). Null/confidential regional values are never treated as zero.
Usable: True
Latest Data CT: 2026-07-24 daily publication
Last Refresh CT: 2026-07-24T18:30:17.517247-05:00
Age Seconds:
Source: /opt/alpha_current/data/cash_cattle/cash_cattle_index.csv
As of 2026-07-20T16:05:05.946648-05:00
Each anchor estimates the same 14-day quantity by a different method. They are combined by median and are never added together.
latest monthly marketings * 14 / calendar days in activity month
Current · USDA NASS Cattle on Feed((national committed + national delivered) / 2) * 2 weeks
Current · USDA AMS LM_CT142normal maturity kernel by placement-weight bucket, then trailing-24-month median calibration
Cattle On Feed: Current | Weekly Weight: Current · USDA NASS Cattle on Feed + USDA AMS weekly live weightmedian of latest four non-holiday steer-plus-heifer slaughter weeks * 2
Current · USDA NASS QuickStats slaughter by classCurrent physical calibration only; canonical history is not yet long enough for trained seasonality.
National scheduling/plant-flow diagnostic; not added to another anchor.
Definition: Estimated fed cattle available for marketing during the next 14 calendar days.
Not this: Not a feedlot showlist, inventory census, or proprietary third-party reproduction.
RESEARCH CONTEXT ONLY · NO LIVE TRADE OR EXECUTION EFFECTUSDA report updated July 20, 2026 at 11:11 AM CT
USDA cattle scheduled for slaughter and delivered to plants, compared with the same season over the prior five years.
Important: TX / OK / NM is one USDA reporting area. This is a scheduling proxy, not a true feedlot showlist. It does not change Alpha's trade signal.
Scheduled means cattle lined up for slaughter. USDA calls these cattle "committed." Delivered means cattle that arrived at the plant.
| Area | Scheduled | Delivered | Plain read |
|---|---|---|---|
| TX / OK / NM | 81,852 this week5-year average: 96,391Usual: 79,131–109,196Normal | 78,102 this week5-year average: 93,847Usual: 83,965–103,867Unusually low | Delivered is below the usual range |
| Kansas | 80,446 this week5-year average: 102,661Usual: 91,705–113,305Low outlier | 91,764 this week5-year average: 101,704Usual: 89,746–111,185Normal | Scheduled is an extreme low outlier |
| Nebraska | 78,353 this week5-year average: 87,898Usual: 76,403–99,600Normal | 77,854 this week5-year average: 86,140Usual: 76,094–96,846Normal | Everything is within the usual range |
| Colorado | 20,008 this week5-year average: 31,157Usual: 23,704–39,458Unusually low | 19,873 this week5-year average: 30,257Usual: 23,669–37,355Unusually low | Scheduled is below the usual range Delivered is below the usual range |
Usual range means where 8 of 10 comparable weeks fell. The comparison uses this week and the two weeks on either side in each of the prior five years.
Source: USDA AMS Livestock Mandatory Reporting, report LM_CT142.
Open the USDA report · Download weekly history · Open full data
COF report is 1 days old — current for monthly context. Signal: HIGHER ON-FEED INVENTORY
Official Release: 2026-07-24
Inventory Date: 2026-07-01
On Feed: 11370000 | 102% of year ago
Placements: 1399000 | 97% of year ago
Marketings: 1661000 | 97% of year ago
Other Disappearance: 50000 | 94% of year ago
Freshness Age Days: 1
Release-Response Cohort: PRESSURE
Primary Walk-Forward MAE Skill: -20.9%
Validation Gate: NOT PASSED — CONTEXT ONLY
Usable: True
Latest Data CT:
Last Refresh CT: 2026-07-25T09:32:29.284817-05:00
Age Seconds:
Source:
Cattle-state rainfall avg 99.8% normal for Apr 2026 - Jun 2026; driest key state Wyoming at 68.3% normal. Monthly source lag is 53 days, so this is background weather context only.
Period: Apr 2026 - Jun 2026
Source Lag Days: 53
Cattle-State Avg: 99.8% normal
Driest Key State: Wyoming at 68.3%
Wettest Key State: Missouri at 134.1%
Score Impact: 0
| State | % Normal | Category | Stress |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wyoming | 68.3% | Dry | 70.0 |
| Colorado | 70.9% | Below normal | 50.0 |
| South Dakota | 81.2% | Below normal | 50.0 |
| North Dakota | 81.8% | Below normal | 50.0 |
| New Mexico | 83.6% | Below normal | 50.0 |
| Nebraska | 85.5% | Near normal | 25.0 |
| Minnesota | 90.0% | Near normal | 25.0 |
| Montana | 100.5% | Near normal | 0.0 |
Usable: False
Latest Data CT: 2026-06-01
Last Refresh CT: 2026-07-24T06:20:03.012714-05:00
Age Seconds:
Source: /opt/alpha/legacy/rainfall_drought_data/climdiv-pcpnst-v1.0.0-20260707
lower year-to-date beef exports are bearish demand context. Monthly ERS import/export data is lagged background context only; it must not create a live trade by itself.
Latest Period: 2026-05
Headline Basis: YEAR_TO_DATE_THROUGH_LATEST_ALIGNED_MONTH
Source Lag Days: 85
Score Impact: -1
Decision Guard: Research-only lagged monthly context. Do not promote without explicit live decision-engine wiring and freshness checks.
Warnings: ERS monthly trade data is 85 days from period start; use as lagged background only.
Open Import / Export History Chart
| Flow | Unit | Latest | Amount | Prev % | Month YoY % | YTD YoY % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exports | CWE | 2026-05 | 196428764.76 | 0.3% | -14.5% | -17.2% |
| exports | KG | 2026-05 | 65979092.53 | 0.1% | -15.6% | -17.7% |
| exports | NO | 2026-05 | 39246.0 | 4.3% | 20.4% | 16.2% |
| imports | CWE | 2026-05 | 523521669.55 | 0.2% | -5.0% | 9.9% |
| imports | KG | 2026-05 | 176699327.03 | 0.5% | -4.2% | 10.2% |
| imports | NO | 2026-05 | 51285.0 | -8.4% | -22.8% | -52.4% |
Usable: False
Latest Data CT: 2026-05
Last Refresh CT: 2026-07-25T08:41:16.619439-05:00
Age Seconds:
Source: exports: /opt/alpha/imported_data/data/ers_livestock_trade_data/LivestockMeat_Exports.csv; imports: /opt/alpha/imported_data/data/ers_livestock_trade_data/LivestockMeat_Imports.csv
USDA CEI quality-mix gross packer spread is $3.66/cwt carcass. Sign is Demand Box minus Supply Live. This standardized operating-spread proxy does not create directional futures points.
Report Date: 2026-07-24
Headline Spread: 3.65626 $/cwt carcass
Choice: 3.25 $/cwt carcass
Select: 6.2999999999999545 $/cwt carcass
Low-confidence $/head proxy: 35.552397
Unit Guard: USDA carcass-equivalent index only; raw cutout minus live cash is disabled.
Decision Use: CONTEXT ONLY / 0 execution points
Usable: False
Latest Data CT: 2026-07-24 after 15:30 CT
Last Refresh CT:
Age Seconds:
Source: {'report_code': 'NW_LS910', 'report_id': '2826', 'url_or_path': 'https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/nw_ls910.txt', 'kind': 'HTTPS', 'raw_sha256': '62777c354a7e2b492b2b7cebba0abfc0cbea6559b2bc93346e8ea27e679452a8', 'methodology': 'USDA Beef Carcass Price Equivalent Index Value'}
APHIS currently states that southern livestock ports of entry are closed to livestock trade. USDA scheduled a conditional reopening of Douglas, Arizona for 2026-08-24; Santa Teresa and Columbus are in operational preparation without announced opening dates. The announced transition is contingent and is not an operating-port confirmation. This is horizon-typed supply context, not a futures timing signal.
Southern Livestock Ports: CLOSED
Observed Condition: APHIS_PAGE_EXPLICIT_CLOSURE
Page Checked: 2026-07-25T23:12:06.134357-05:00
Observed Text: live animals, go to Live Animal Exports . Port Closures and Reopening Updates Currently, all southern ports of entry are closed to livestock trade . USDA proposes a phased reopening of Southern ports to livestock trade , contingent upon
Decision Use: CONTEXT / 0 points
Usable: False
Latest Data CT: 2026-07-24
Last Refresh CT: 2026-07-25T23:12:06.134357-05:00
Age Seconds:
Source: USDA APHIS Current Animal Disease Status and official southern-port policy announcements
Macro Watch highest status is WATCH. WATCH and NO SHOCK rows are research-only. Only ACTIVE SHOCK or CONFIRMED SHOCK may influence the decision layer.
Highest Bucket: Imports / Exports
Highest Headline: Monitor broad beef import/export headlines
Highest Bias: TWO-SIDED
Active/Watch Count: 7
| Bucket | Status | Bias | Headline | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USDA / Brooke Rollins / Trump Beef Policy | NO SHOCK | NEUTRAL | No confirmed new beef policy shock | Monitor USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins and Trump beef policy comments |
| Big Four Packer Pressure | NO SHOCK | NEUTRAL | No confirmed new Big Four packer shock | Monitor Tyson Cargill JBS National Beef plant or policy shocks |
| Imports / Exports | WATCH | TWO-SIDED | Monitor broad beef import/export headlines | Imports can pressure supply bearish; exports can support demand bullish |
| Screwworm / Mexico Border | WATCH | BULLISH SUPPLY RISK | Monitor screwworm and Mexico border cattle movement risk | Escalates on confirmed border restriction animal-health disruption or cattle flow impact |
| Brazil Beef | WATCH | BEARISH IMPORT SUPPLY RISK | Monitor Brazil beef imports tariff quota and access headlines | Escalates on confirmed import relief tariff change or access expansion |
| Argentina Beef | WATCH | BEARISH IMPORT SUPPLY RISK | Monitor Argentina beef import/export access headlines | Escalates on confirmed U.S. import access or tariff policy change |
| Australia Beef | WATCH | BEARISH IMPORT SUPPLY RISK | Monitor Australia beef import/export supply headlines | Escalates on confirmed import flow shift or supply expansion |
| China Beef Access | WATCH | BULLISH EXPORT DEMAND RISK | Monitor China U.S. beef plant licenses customs access and exports | Escalates on confirmed U.S. beef access license renewal customs approval or suspension |
| Japan Beef Access | WATCH | BULLISH EXPORT DEMAND RISK | Monitor Japan beef export demand and policy headlines | Escalates on confirmed export access demand policy or tariff change |
Usable: False
Latest Data CT: 2026-05-22
Last Refresh CT: 2026-07-24T18:30:22.378264-05:00
Age Seconds:
Source: /opt/alpha_current/data/macro_watch_flags.csv