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August Retracement Model
60+ tick August LC big-move retracement / continuation scorecard.
Open August Retracement Model
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ALPHA

Landing page risk control. Full model detail remains in Signal Summary.
SESSION CLOSED — FINAL REGULAR SESSION SNAPSHOT. Live Cattle regular session ended at 1:05 p.m. CT. Databento OHLCV is no longer expected to update after the close.
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Market reaction snapshot unavailable.
OPEN FULL SIGNAL SUMMARY OPEN CHARTS OPEN PACKER MAP

FINAL MARKET REACTION READ

Final regular-session snapshot. Uses final_market_snapshot.json as the source of truth.
MacroMixed price/volume reaction. Macro watch: China Beef Export Access / TWO-SIDED / ACTIVE WATCH
Demand OffsetMixed boxed beef confirmation from latest boxed beef hard-data read; demand offset, not full trade invalidation by itself
PackerINSUFFICIENT DATA | Leverage: Unknown. Basis: GFQ6: -115.21 (FUTURES PREMIUM) | GFU6: -111.46 (FUTURES PREMIUM) | LEQ6: 3.52 (CASH PREMIUM) | LEV6: 8.02 (LARGE CASH PREMIUM)
Final OI / Price ReactionGFQ6: OI explanation unavailable. | GFU6: OI explanation unavailable. | LEQ6: Price up + OI down = short covering. | LEV6: Price up + OI up = new bullish participation.
ExecutionUse contract leadership, OI, and macro confirmation before assigning strong direction.
InvalidationMixed read resolves only after clean price acceptance with volume, OI, and live-flow confirmation.

AUGUST SEASONAL STATUS

StatusBULLISH SEASONAL - OI NOT CONFIRMING SHORT TERM
BiasBULLISH SEASONAL / OI WARNING
RoleResearch only — directional wind, not standalone trade signal.
Seasonal WindowINSIDE CONFIRMED OVERLAP WINDOW
Window BiasSTRONGEST SEASONAL PERIOD
Window MessageToday is inside the strongest flat-seasonal plus Aug/Oct spread confirmation overlap.
Today / Core Start07-23 / 06-20
Flat Window06-20 to 07-30 | Win 1.0 | Avg 7.725 pts
Spread ConfirmAUG_MINUS_OCT | 07-13 to 08-17 | Avg 2.57 pts
Confirmed OverlapBest confirmed overlap is mid-July into late July. | Score 98.4
OI VerdictCURRENT OI SOFTENING - DOES NOT CONFIRM BULLISH SEASONAL
5D Price / OI pts /
Hard DataCASH AND BOXED BEEF FIGHT BULLISH SEASONAL
Hard Data EffectDOWNGRADE
CashCASH WEAKNESS FIGHTS BULLISH SEASONAL | 230.14 | Chg -9.11
Boxed BeefBOXED BEEF WEAKNESS FIGHTS BULLISH SEASONAL | Choice 362.87 (-0.63) | Select 348.75 (-1.82)
Trade MeaningSeasonal structure is bullish, but current Databento OI must confirm before upgrading live conviction. Use as directional wind only. Favor buy-break logic only if spreads, cash/boxed beef, ORB, and fresh OI support it.

REFRESH DATABENTO NOW

Run this if Databento OHLCV turns WATCH or STALE.

cd /opt/alpha
source .venv/bin/activate

/opt/alpha/refresh_intraday_databento.sh

ALPHA BRAIN

DecisionSESSION SNAPSHOT
ScoreSNAPSHOT / 100 | FINAL
Primary DriverContract leadership unavailable.
Macro StatusN/A | Score: N/A
Market ReactionN/A
Action BiasWait for fresh data.
Evidence 1SESSION CLOSED — FINAL REGULAR SESSION SNAPSHOT
Evidence 2N/A
Evidence 3Leadership: N/A
Evidence 4Contract leadership unavailable.
Evidence 5Primary contract: LEQ6 / August 2026 Live Cattle
Evidence 6Primary OI read: short covering
Evidence 7Action: Wait for fresh data.
Evidence 8Live Cattle regular session ended at 1:05 p.m. CT. Databento OHLCV is no longer expected to update after the close.

GEO SUPPLY STRESS

VerdictBULLISH TIGHT-SUPPLY STRESS
Main StateTexas
Stress / Rainfall75.5 / 86.8% normal
Herd / On Feed12.10M / 2.56M
Cow Herd / Calf Crop4.045M / 4.250M
Trade MeaningSupports cash/feedlot leverage; do not press shorts unless futures reject resistance or OI confirms liquidation.
WatchIf cow-calf dryness expands while cow kill rises, flag forced movement risk.

OPEN GEO STRESS MAP

COT POSITIONING

Latest Report2026-07-21
BiasPositioning context
Managed Money Net/OI24.97%
Producer Net/OI-36.96%
MM Net COT Index 6M0.0%
MM Net COT Index 36M56.4%
MM Net COT Index 15Y64.5%
Producer Net COT Index 6M84.7%
Producer Net COT Index 36M40.9%
Producer Net COT Index 15Y42.5%
COT OI303,089
Post-COT Daily OI2026-07-23: 306016.0
Post-COT OI Gap2927.0
Post-COT VerdictPost-COT OI is near flat; positioning confirmation is mixed.
COT ReadCOT positioning is not enough by itself; use post-COT OI and price reaction to judge current participation.

OPENING TICK REACTION

Opening-drive module. This can differ from the final regular-session market reaction.
Statusok
Verdictbullish/relative strength volume leadership
Action ReadLEQ6 is showing relative strength with volume leadership. Avoid assuming broad bearish control until it fails.
Volume LeaderLEQ6
Weakness LeaderLEM6
Strength LeaderLEQ6
LEM6Score None | Change None | Vol None
LEM6 Typeerror
LEQ6Score 57 | Change 0.4 | Vol 513
LEQ6 Typemixed open

SELL-RALLY CONFIRMATION — ACTIVE SETUP

Primary ContractLEQ6
StatusINACTIVE
Score25 / 100
Zone227.725–228.500
ActionSell-rally setup inactive. Wait for price to test resistance.
LEM6INACTIVE | Score 0 | Zone 252.075–253.000
LEQ6INACTIVE | Score 25 | Zone 227.725–228.500

NO-CHASE WARNING — ENTRY TIMING

Primary ContractLEQ6
StatusLOW
Score15 / 100
ActionNo major chase warning from tick data.
LEM6LOW | Score 15 | Range None
LEQ6LOW | Score 15 | Range 0.825

OI CONTEXT

StatusPRIOR-DAY CONTEXT / NORMAL
SymbolLEQ6
Today Price Change1.2
Latest OI Trade Date2026-07-23
MessageLatest OI trade_date is 2026-07-23. Today's price move +1.200 is below large-move threshold.

DATA FRESHNESS / SESSION STATE

Databento OHLCV StatusSTALE
Databento OHLCV Age24.8 hr old
Databento Levels StatusSTALE
Databento Levels Age24.8 hr old
Daily Trade Read StatusSTALE
Daily Trade Read Age24.8 hr old
Packer Summary24.8 hr old
Hard-Data Summary16.4 hr old
Signal SourceDatabento OHLCV / Databento Session Levels / daily_trade_read.json

AUTO REFRESH STATUS

Intraday Timeractive
Last Service Stateinactive
Next TimerMon 2026-07-27 08:30:00 CDT 1 day 7h Fri 2026-07-24 13:55:10 CDT 1 day 10h ago alpha-intraday-databento.timer alpha-intraday-databento.service

RISK CONTROL

Primary ContractLEQ6 August
Preferred ActionWait for price/volume confirmation before pressing bearish bias.
No-Trade RuleNo-trade while price rejects downside or volume is weak.
Invalidationabove 228.500 / session high reclaim
Demand Offset PresentYes
Demand Offset EffectReduce chase risk. Require cleaner rally rejection or fresh downside volume before adding bearish exposure.
Demand Offset Invalidates Bearish Stack?No. Supportive boxed beef offsets pressure, but does not cancel macro/import/packer bearish stack by itself.

DATABENTO SESSION LEVELS

Level SourceDatabento OHLCV 1-minute
Databento Levels Date2026-07-24
Sell-Rally Zone227.725–228.500
Support Zone225.475–226.175
Resistance Zone227.725–228.500
Opening Range225.575–226.400
Prior Close225.425
High-Volume ZonesHV1: 227.725–228.300 @ 09:15 vol 758 | HV2: 225.575–226.400 @ 08:30 vol 513 | HV3: 226.175–227.575 @ 08:45 vol 447

PACKER CONTEXT

Fort Morgancurrent_not_running / reported_status
Packer Flags4
Plant-Level KillN/A unless verified hard-data source exists

HARD-DATA CONTEXT

COTModerate fund length
Boxed BeefMixed boxed beef confirmation
Managed Money Net+75,681
Choice Cutout361.24