TRADE FLOW MONITOR

Key levels
Prior close: 225.425 | Today ORB high / mid / low: 226.475 / 226.025 / 225.575 | Prior session high: 228.500 | Prior session low: 225.475 | Resistance/value: 227.725–228.500

No-trade warnings
Same-day OI is not available yet; treat OI as context, not confirmation. | Do not chase a move away from value without fresh volume/DOM confirmation. | Do not trade if Live Cattle and Feeder Cattle strongly disagree. | If price chops through both sides of the ORB without acceptance, reduce size or wait.

Truth read
Tape long is fighting at least one bearish import/packer truth factor; require price acceptance.

High probability wired
FAILED_UP_SHORT_TRIGGERED: first break UP + MBO < -0.005 + close back below ORB high. | GAP_DOWN_CONTINUATION_SHORT: gap <= -50 ticks + first break DOWN + 9:00 below ORB midpoint. | DOWN_BREAK_CONTINUATION_CONFIRMED: first break DOWN + MBO < -0.030 + price below midpoint.

Medium probability scored
DAILY_0900_ABOVE_ORB_LONG: base long probability; positive MBO boosts, negative MBO blocks/downgrades. | DAILY_0900_ABOVE_ORB_KNOWN_UP_LONG: slightly cleaner above-ORB long state; target60/stop60/time11:00 avg around +20 ticks. | DAILY_LONG_CONFIRMED: daily above-ORB long requires peer-contract confirmation; one-contract-only long is blocked. | DAILY_LONG_CONFIRMED_MBO_BAND: peer-confirmed daily long + MBO 0.005 to 0.020 gets an extra boost. | DAILY_0900_BELOW_ORB_SHORT: base short probability; negative MBO boosts short scalp. | DAILY_1000_DOWN_OPEN_INSIDE_BELOW_MID_SHORT: daily short continuation/scalp layer. | DAILY_B_SCALP: no-A fallback participation scalps; live B entries require at least 20 tick targets. | DAILY_E_LARGE_REPAIR: no-A/B fallback repair/continuation layer with 40-60 tick targets. | DAILY_C_SCALP: disabled from live decisions; target range is too small for execution. | DAILY_D_LARGE_FALLBACK: no-A/B/C fallback with larger 50-60 tick targets; small size only. | DAILY_F_LARGE_SHORT: no higher ladder setup active; larger 50-60 tick short fallback, small size only. | FAILED_DOWN_LONG_TRIGGERED: first break DOWN + MBO > +0.005 + close back above ORB low; quick target only. | UP_BREAK_CONTINUATION_CONFIRMED: first break UP + MBO > +0.030. | ORB_WINDOW_LONG_BIAS: 3m-10m first break UP adds continuation context; 5m-8m UP with 80-120 tick range adds stronger target context. | TEN_MIN_FIRST_UP_70_100_FAST_CONTINUATION_LONG: 10m first break UP + ORB range 70-100; target80/stop60 into 10:30. | TEN_MIN_FIRST_UP_ABOVE_MID_GE40_CONTINUATION_LONG: 10m first break UP + break close >=40 ticks above ORB midpoint. | TEN_MIN_FIRST_DOWN_0900_0920_REVERSAL_WATCH_LONG: 10m first break DOWN between 09:00-09:20 is a fade-long watch, not a blind short chase. | ORB_11_15M_FIRST_UP_ABOVE_MID_GE40_CONTINUATION_LONG: 11m-15m first UP + break close >=40 ticks above midpoint; target80/stop60. | ORB_12_14M_FIRST_DOWN_0900_0920_REVERSAL_WATCH_LONG: 12m-14m first DOWN between 09:00-09:20 is a fade-long watch. | BIG_MOVE_0900_UP_SHALLOW_RETRACE_CONTINUATION_LONG: big up move with <20 tick or <25% retrace favored continuation. | BIG_MOVE_0920_UP_140_180_CONTINUATION_LONG: controlled 140-180 tick up move by 09:20 favored continuation, small-sample. | CURRENT_REGIME_BIG_DOWN_1000_REPAIR_WATCH: by 10:00 down >=120 ticks with <=30 tick bounce blocks fresh short chase and watches repair/retrace. | BIG_MOVE_1100_DOWN_DEEP_RETRACE_CONTINUATION_SHORT: late down big-move deep retracement favored rejoining short, small size. | NEXT_DAY_AFTER_EXTREME_DOWN_EARLY_REPAIR_LONG_WATCH: prior >=240 tick down excursion can produce early repair long, small-sample only. | FAST_15M_UP_RETRACE20_CONTINUATION_LONG: 15m fast UP impulse plus 20-tick pullback; target60/stop50 avg +40.5. | FAST_15M_DOWN_PRE09_CONTINUATION_SHORT: 15m fast DOWN impulse before 09:00; target80/stop60 avg +46.0, small size due higher stop risk. | PRIOR_WEEK_BIG_DOWN_SIGNAL_BOOST: current-regime ladder signals improved after prior week DOWN_GE160; use as context, not a standalone trigger. | ORB_WINDOW_SHORT_BIAS: 4m-5m DOWN with 60-80 tick range adds short-continuation context only when gap/MBO confirms. | FAILED_FIRST_UP_SHORT_NEGATIVE_MBO: first UP + MBO < -0.005 + close below/retest fail ORB high; conditional short. | FAILED_EARLY_DOWN_RECLAIM_MID: quick repair long only; 20-tick target profile, not 40-tick continuation. | NEWS_EXPORT_OR_POLICY_CONTEXT: export, import, screwworm/Mexico, boxed beef, and demand headlines adjust score only when ORB/MBO confirms; Mexico/NWS supply restriction is separated from import pressure. | TRUTH_ALIGNMENT_CONTEXT: every live decision is labeled with-regime, against-regime, or tape-only versus hard-data truth factors. | TRUTH_FED_SUPPLY_TIGHT_BUT_WEIGHT_OFFSET: tight kill/production supports cattle supply, but heavier weights keep the bull case from becoming blind. | TRUTH_BOXED_BEEF_DEMAND_RESILIENT: resilient boxed-beef demand gives small long context but remains subordinate to ORB/MBO. | COT_REDUCTION_POST_COT_OI_REBUILD_CONTEXT: old COT fund liquidation is dampened when post-COT OI rebuilt.

Low probability blocks
Block midpoint-loss/reclaim as primary entry. | Block large gap-up automatic fade. | Block selling strong 10m first-UP breaks by default; research favored continuation unless a separate failure/MBO condition appears. | Block selling strong 8m-15m first-UP continuation buckets by default; require separate failure/MBO evidence before fading. | Block fading strong 09:00 big-up moves by default; tests favored continuation unless a separate failure condition appears. | Block fading 15m fast-UP continuation moves by default; tests favored continuation and pullback-continuation. | Block blind short chase on delayed 10m/12m-14m first-DOWN breaks after 09:00; research favored reversal watch. | Block MBO standalone reversal entries without price acceptance. | Penalize 18m-25m DOWN breaks with 40-60 tick ORB range; weak short-continuation bucket. | Penalize 17m-22m DOWN breaks with 0-20 tick ORB range; high failed-midpoint risk. | Block failed-UP shorts without negative MBO as broad short triggers. | Block late confirmation shorts after early DOWN when tested as 8:45/9:00/9:15 entries. | Block tight 0.5x ORB stop models for failed-UP and failed-DOWN repairs. | Block one-contract-only daily above-ORB longs until the peer contract confirms. | Block peer-confirmed daily longs when MBO >= 0.020 due to high-positive exhaustion risk in the 2026 overlay. | Block generic short chase when WoW open is DOWN_GE160; tested shorts were weak versus repair/long context. | Block blind short chase after a bearish packer-shock headline once price has already washed out; require fresh continuation confirmation. | Block weak short chase on Mexico/NWS headlines unless separate import, packer-throughput, or price/flow confirmation is present; Mexico closure tightens cattle supply. | Block weak short chase when import pounds are the only bearish supply proof; imported lean/grind is not full Choice/Prime fed-cattle replacement. | Dampen blind long chase when the bull case rests only on tight kills but weights/imports are offsetting consumer pounds. | Block or dampen late short chase when price down + OI down signals liquidation/exhaustion rather than fresh bearish participation. | Dampen blind long chase when managed-money length is at 36m/15y COT extremes.