Legacy view Current Alpha ORB Live Legacy Menu

BOXED BEEF STATUS

StatusOK
Latest Date2026-07-24
Latest SessionAFTERNOON
Latest CodeLM_XB403
Latest LabelAfternoon Boxed Beef
Morning TodayYES
Afternoon TodayYES
MessageAfternoon boxed beef final expected after 3:00 CT.

BOXED BEEF REPORT DETAIL

Report SessionAFTERNOON
Report CodeLM_XB403
Report LabelAfternoon Boxed Beef
Date2026-07-24
Choice Cutout361.24
Select Cutout346.71
Choice/Select Spread14.53
Loads131.37
Choice Loads75.44
Select Loads9.80
Trimming Loads11.26
Ground Beef Loads34.87
MAIN DASHBOARD MACRO NEWS TRADE SNAPSHOT MARKET REACTION OPEN INTEREST MORNING CHECKLIST MARKET OPEN READ — MODULE INPUT CHARTS PACKER MAP

ALPHA SIGNAL SUMMARY

Macro trigger + price/volume confirmation + OI explanation + Databento execution + hard-data confirmation.
Data as of Jul 24, 2026 23:35 UTC   ● LIVE
Daily Trade: 0 min old Packer: 18.8 hr old Hard Data: 0 min old Changes: 18.8 hr old
N/A
Market reaction snapshot unavailable.
DATABENTO WARNING: OHLCV is STALE. Levels may not reflect current live trade. Use CQG confirmation before acting.
DATABENTO WARNING: OHLCV is STALE. Levels may not reflect current live trade. Use CQG confirmation before acting.

MONDAY MORNING RUNBOOK

Quick Status Commandcd /opt/alpha && source .venv/bin/activate && /opt/alpha/alpha_status.sh
Step 1 — Before Opencd /opt/alpha && source .venv/bin/activate && /opt/alpha/run_monday_preopen_control.sh
Expected Before-Open ResultPRE-OPEN CONTROL: LOCKED — prior-session context only
Step 2 — After 8:40 CTcd /opt/alpha && source .venv/bin/activate && /opt/alpha/check_opening_unlock.sh
Expected Unlock ResultOPENING READ: UNLOCKED — CQG CONFIRMATION REQUIRED
If Audit FailsDo not trade from Alpha output. Read alpha_consistency_audit.json and fix the listed failure first.
If Databento Rows MissingOpening read remains LOCKED. Use CQG manually until Databento rows are fresh.
Trade RuleNo trade action from Alpha without CQG / DOM confirmation.

LIVE TRADE MODE

Trade ModeWAIT
ReasonLive Cattle regular session is not open.
SessionSESSION CLOSED — FINAL REGULAR SESSION SNAPSHOT
AuditPASS
Opening ReadLOCKED
InvalidationN/A
CQG ConfirmationRequired before trade action

OPENING UNLOCK STATUS

Opening ReadLOCKED
ReasonDatabento rows have no timestamp column.
SessionLIVE SESSION
AuditPASS
Today Rows84
Opening Window Rows0
SymbolsN/A
CQG ConfirmationRequired before trade action

MONDAY PRE-OPEN CHECKLIST

Hard-Data RefreshRequired before open
COT / Post-COT OIRequired — confirm COT Index and post-COT OI gap
Cash Cattle IndexRequired — confirm packer/feedyard leverage
Macro News ScanRequired — China, Brazil/imports, tariffs, packer shocks
Databento LevelsPrior-session context until 8:30 CT
Opening ReadLocked until fresh 8:30 CT Databento rows
CQG ConfirmationRequired before trade action
Pre-Open Commandcd /opt/alpha && source .venv/bin/activate && /opt/alpha/run_monday_preopen_control.sh
Opening Unlock Commandcd /opt/alpha && source .venv/bin/activate && /opt/alpha/check_opening_unlock.sh
Trade-Control RuleDo not let Friday final read control Monday open without fresh pre-open rebuild

PRE-OPEN FRESHNESS GATE

SessionSESSION CLOSED — FINAL REGULAR SESSION SNAPSHOT
Prior-Session ContextActive — final regular-session snapshot
Hard-Data RefreshActive / refresh before next open
Opening ReadLocked until next regular session and fresh Databento rows
Live-Control RuleFinal-session context only; not live-control protection. Do not trade from Alpha output without fresh Databento rows, audit pass, and CQG / DOM confirmation.
Session DetailLive Cattle regular session ended at 1:05 p.m. CT. Databento OHLCV is no longer expected to update after the close.

REFRESH DATABENTO NOW

Run this if Databento OHLCV turns WATCH or STALE.

cd /opt/alpha
source .venv/bin/activate

/opt/alpha/refresh_intraday_databento.sh

DRIVER ATTRIBUTION

Primary DriverMixed price/volume reaction
Primary ContractLEV6 — LEV6
Market ReactionBullish 2.5
Cash / Feedyard ReadINSUFFICIENT DATA | Leverage: Unknown
BasisGFQ6: -115.21 (FUTURES PREMIUM) | GFU6: -111.46 (FUTURES PREMIUM) | LEQ6: 3.52 (CASH PREMIUM) | LEV6: 8.02 (LARGE CASH PREMIUM)
Macro WatchChina Beef Export Access / TWO-SIDED / ACTIVE WATCH
OI ConfirmationGFQ6: OI explanation unavailable. | GFU6: OI explanation unavailable. | LEQ6: Price up + OI down = short covering. | LEV6: Price up + OI up = new bullish participation.
Trade MeaningUse contract leadership, OI, and macro confirmation before assigning strong direction.

SMA MARKET STRUCTURE

StatusBULLISH_SWING_TAILWIND
Primary Sourcecontinuation
Primary SymbolLE.v.1
Primary SignalMA100_WASHOUT_RECLAIM
Event Date2026-06-16
Tested Hold Window20
Short PolicySUPPRESS_LONGER_HOLD_SHORTS
Continuation LE.v.1 has active MA100_WASHOUT_RECLAIM from 2026-06-16; tested hold window is 20 sessions. Treat as bullish swing posture, not an intraday trigger.

CURRENT PLAIN-ENGLISH READ

MacroMixed price/volume reaction. Macro watch: China Beef Export Access / TWO-SIDED / ACTIVE WATCH
SMA Market StructureContinuation LE.v.1 has active MA100_WASHOUT_RECLAIM from 2026-06-16; tested hold window is 20 sessions. Treat as bullish swing posture, not an intraday trigger.
Demand OffsetMixed boxed beef confirmation from latest cutout. This is a demand offset, not a full bearish invalidation by itself.
PackerINSUFFICIENT DATA | Leverage: Unknown. Basis: GFQ6: -115.21 (FUTURES PREMIUM) | GFU6: -111.46 (FUTURES PREMIUM) | LEQ6: 3.52 (CASH PREMIUM) | LEV6: 8.02 (LARGE CASH PREMIUM)
OI / Price ReactionGFQ6: OI explanation unavailable. | GFU6: OI explanation unavailable. | LEQ6: Price up + OI down = short covering. | LEV6: Price up + OI up = new bullish participation.
ExecutionUse contract leadership, OI, and macro confirmation before assigning strong direction.
InvalidationMixed read resolves only after clean price acceptance with volume, OI, and live-flow confirmation.
COT RiskCOT Index: MM Net 6M 0.0% / 36M 56.4% / 15Y 64.5%; Producer Net 6M 84.7% / 36M 40.9% / 15Y 42.5%. COT Index: MM Net 6M 0.0% / 36M 56.4% / 15Y 64.5%; Producer Net 6M 84.7% / 36M 40.9% / 15Y 42.5%. COT showed the Tuesday positioning snapshot, while post-COT daily OI is near flat. Post-COT OI gap is +2,927 through 2026-07-23. Positioning confirmation is mixed; avoid over-weighting COT without price/OI confirmation.
Production ContextKills lower WoW

DATABENTO STATUS

OHLCV StatusSTALE
OHLCV File Age5.5 hr old
Session Levels StatusSTALE
Session Levels Age5.5 hr old
Daily Trade Read — Cached Input StatusFRESH
Daily Trade Read — Cached Input Age0 min old
Level SourceDatabento OHLCV 1-minute
Levels Date2026-07-24
Sell-Rally Zone227.725–228.500
Support Zone225.475–226.175
Resistance Zone227.725–228.500
Invalidationabove 228.500 / session high reclaim

MODEL STACK VERDICT

VerdictN/A
ActionUse contract leadership, OI, and macro confirmation before assigning strong direction.
No-Trade RuleNo-trade while cash is neutral/two-sided and contract leadership is not clean.
1. Primary DriverMixed price/volume reaction
2. SMA Market StructureBULLISH_SWING_TAILWIND | LE.v.1 | MA100_WASHOUT_RECLAIM
2. Market ReactionBullish 2.5
3. OI ExplanationGFQ6: OI explanation unavailable. | GFU6: OI explanation unavailable. | LEQ6: Price up + OI down = short covering. | LEV6: Price up + OI up = new bullish participation.
4. Databento ExecutionLEM6 June | Sell Rally 253.100–253.825 | Support 251.350–252.225 | Invalidation above 253.825 / session high reclaim
5. Packer / Cash ContextINSUFFICIENT DATA | Leverage: Unknown | GFQ6: -115.21 (FUTURES PREMIUM) | GFU6: -111.46 (FUTURES PREMIUM) | LEQ6: 3.52 (CASH PREMIUM) | LEV6: 8.02 (LARGE CASH PREMIUM)
6. Hard-Data ConfirmationCOT: Crowded bullish positioning / liquidation risk | Boxed Beef: Mixed boxed beef confirmation | Production: Kills lower WoW

RISK CONTROL

Mixed price/volume reaction with neutral cash context. Use contract leadership, OI, macro, and live flow before assigning direction. SMA structure: Continuation LE.v.1 has active MA100_WASHOUT_RECLAIM from 2026-06-16; tested hold window is 20 sessions. Treat as bullish swing posture, not an intraday trigger.
Risk StatusMIXED / WAIT - NO STRONG CASH-ADJUSTED EDGE
Preferred ActionUse contract leadership, OI, and macro confirmation before assigning strong direction.
No-Trade RuleNo-trade while cash is neutral/two-sided and contract leadership is not clean.
Invalidation RuleMixed read resolves only after clean price acceptance with volume, OI, and live-flow confirmation.
Downside ConfirmationNeed clear August failure with volume/OI confirmation before trusting downside.
Demand Offset PresentYes
Demand Offset EffectSupportive boxed beef is a demand offset; do not treat it as full bearish invalidation by itself.
Macro WatchChina Beef Export Access / TWO-SIDED / ACTIVE WATCH
Risk ContextMixed price/volume reaction with neutral cash context. Use contract leadership, OI, macro, and live flow before assigning direction. SMA structure: Continuation LE.v.1 has active MA100_WASHOUT_RECLAIM from 2026-06-16; tested hold window is 20 sessions. Treat as bullish swing posture, not an intraday trigger.
COT RiskCOT Index: MM Net 6M 0.0% / 36M 56.4% / 15Y 64.5%; Producer Net 6M 84.7% / 36M 40.9% / 15Y 42.5%. COT Index: MM Net 6M 0.0% / 36M 56.4% / 15Y 64.5%; Producer Net 6M 84.7% / 36M 40.9% / 15Y 42.5%. COT showed the Tuesday positioning snapshot, while post-COT daily OI is near flat. Post-COT OI gap is +2,927 through 2026-07-23. Positioning confirmation is mixed; avoid over-weighting COT without price/OI confirmation.
Boxed Beef OffsetMixed boxed beef confirmation

MARKET OPEN READ — MODULE INPUT

StatusCONFLICTS WITH BEARISH DAILY STACK
Primary Open SymbolLEQ6
Latest Session2026-07-24
DirectionBullish open
First 5m High226.400
First 5m Low225.575
First 5m Volume513
Open ReadBullish first-five-minute response against bearish daily stack. Do not chase shorts immediately; wait for failure back below opening range or Databento resistance / sell-rally zone rejection.
June SignalN/A
August SignalCONFLICTS WITH BEARISH DAILY STACK
Open full Market Open Read

WHAT CHANGED SINCE LAST REFRESH — LEGACY COMPARISON

Execution Changes
VerdictBearish macro, not fully confirmed / OI prior-day context → Bearish macro, not fully confirmed
Preferred ActionSell rallies only after live rejection; prior-day OI is context, not same-day confirmation. → Wait for price/volume confirmation before pressing bearish bias.
No-Trade RuleNo-trade if price is holding above reclaimed resistance or sell-rally trigger is not active. → No-trade while price rejects downside or volume is weak.
Sell-Rally Zone225.000–226.050 → 224.350–225.700
Support Zone223.000–223.375 → 221.700–223.350
Resistance Zone225.000–226.050 → 224.350–225.700
Invalidationabove 226.050 / session high reclaim → above 225.700 / session high reclaim
Hard-Data Changes
Choice Cutout363.50 → 362.87
Boxed Beef Loads116.48 → 124.21

LOWER MODULE NOTE

Sections below are raw module inputs or stale cached context. Final decision hierarchy is Driver Attribution → Current Plain-English Read → Model Stack Verdict → Risk Control.

MACRO — RAW MODULE INPUT

BiasBearish
Score-5.0
Raw-8.16
Main DriverBig Four Packer Shock

MARKET REACTION

June LEM6N/A
August LEQ6Bullish 0.5
Market reaction mixed or incomplete.

OPEN INTEREST — MODULE INPUT

June OI / Chg64,492 / -6,879
August OI / Chg134,721 / +4,748
Module ReadGFQ6: OI explanation unavailable. | GFU6: OI explanation unavailable. | LEQ6: Price up + OI down = short covering. | LEV6: Price up + OI up = new bullish participation.
Module input only. Final OI explanation is controlled by Driver Attribution.

DATABENTO CHARTS

June LEM6Open chart
August LEQ6Open chart
Open full Databento/Databento charts

DAILY TRADE READ — STALE CACHED MODULE INPUT

VerdictSTALE MODULE INPUT — superseded by Driver Attribution
Primary ContractLEM6 June — stale cached input
ReasonCached module context only; final driver read favors LEQ6 August confirmation.
Databento Date2026-05-15
Databento Sell-Rally Zone253.100–253.825
Databento Support Zone251.350–252.225
Databento Resistance Zone253.100–253.825
Databento Opening Range251.350–252.400
Databento Prior Close252.350
Invalidation Candidateabove 253.825 / session high reclaim
Preferred ActionSTALE MODULE INPUT — use Driver Attribution / Risk Control for final action.
No-TradeNo-trade while cash is neutral/two-sided and contract leadership is not clean.
PACKER MAP / PLANT WATCH

Packer Map / Plant Watch

StatusPlant-status context only; no plant kill estimates
Mapped Plants16
Big Four / Major Plants15
Open Status Flags4
Review-Related Flags0
Watch Plants13
Closed Plants2
Fort Morgan Watchcurrent_not_running / reported_status
Plant-Level KillN/A unless verified hard-data source exists
Map/packer-map
Open full packer map

LATEST FLAGS

Cargill / cargill_fort_morganclosure_rumor_response — confirmed_report
Tyson / tyson_lexingtonplant_closure — confirmed_report
Tyson / tyson_amarilloreduced_shift — confirmed_report
Cargill / cargill_fort_morgancurrent_not_running — reported_status
HARD-DATA CONFIRMATION

COT Positioning

Date2026-07-21
StatusModerate fund length
Open Interest303,089
OI WoW-8,677
Managed Money Net+75,681
Managed Money Long90,219
Managed Money Short14,538
Managed Money Long % OI29.8%
MM Long WoW-18,883
Producer/Merchant Net-112,021
MM Net COT Index 6M0.0%
MM Net COT Index 36M56.4%
MM Net COT Index 15Y64.5%
Producer Net COT Index 6M84.7%
Producer Net COT Index 36M40.9%
Producer Net COT Index 15Y42.5%
Post-COT OI Gap+2,927
Post-COT VerdictPost-COT OI is near flat; positioning confirmation is mixed.

Boxed Beef

Date2026-07-24
StatusMixed boxed beef confirmation
Demand Score56
Choice Cutout361.24
Select Cutout346.71
Choice Change-1.63
Select Change-2.04
Choice/Select Spread14.53
Loads131.37
NotesChoice and Select were both lower. Choice/Select spread is firm. Reported total loads confirm active movement. Coarse grind demand is supportive.

Beef Trade / Imports

Date2026-05-01
StatusNet import pressure
Beef Imports Mil Lbs523.5
Beef Exports Mil Lbs196.4
Net Imports Mil Lbs327.1
Net Exports Mil Lbs-327.1

Weekly Beef Production

Date2026-07-17
StatusKills lower WoW
Slaughter Head525,000
Prior Week Slaughter529,000
Year Ago Slaughter567,000
Beef Production Mil Lbs464.5
Prior Week Production469.1
Year Ago Production489.2
Live Weight Lbs1,448
Dressed Weight Lbs887

Packer Margin Proxy

Date2026-07-17
StatusHard-data proxy only
Live Steer Price238.28
Prior Week Live Steer248.01
Year Ago Live Steer237.78
Dressed Steer Price377.01
Drop Value14.08
Prior Week Drop Value14.12

Cattle On Feed Flow

Date2026-06-01
StatusFeedlot flow context
Placements Head1,704,000
Marketings Head1,551,000
Other Disappearance55,000
Placement Minus Marketings+153,000
Net Feedlot Flow+98,000
Three-Month Net Flow+133,000

US Herd Size

Date2026-01-01
StatusStructural supply context
All Cattle/Calves Mil Head86.16
Beef Cows Mil Head27.61
Year2,026

DATA SOURCE STATUS

Databento OHLCVActive — 5.5h old
Databento OIActive — 0.0h old
Macro FlagsActive — 13.1h old
Packer MapActive — 13.3h old
Logs DirectoryActive — 2.1h old
CME OI ScrapeDisabled Backup — Databento primary
DatabentoManual Input — Used for execution levels