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ALPHA TRADE SNAPSHOT

Canonical trade read from alpha_final_decision.json. Generated 2026-07-24T20:02:34+00:00.

FINAL DECISION

PASS
Primary DriverMixed price/volume reaction
Primary ContractLEQ6 — August 2026 Live Cattle
Market ReactionBullish 2.5
Trade MeaningUse contract leadership, OI, and macro confirmation before assigning strong direction.

CASH / BASIS / OI

Cash / Feedyard ReadBEARISH CASH / PACKER LEVERAGE | Leverage: Packers
BasisGFQ6: -113.94 (FUTURES PREMIUM) | GFU6: -109.99 (FUTURES PREMIUM) | LEQ6: 4.71 (CASH PREMIUM) | LEV6: 8.66 (LARGE CASH PREMIUM)
OI ConfirmationGFQ6: OI explanation unavailable. | GFU6: OI explanation unavailable. | LEQ6: Price up + OI down = short covering. | LEV6: Price down + OI up = new bearish participation / new shorts.
Post-COT OI Gap-7,612
Latest Daily OI304,154 as of 2026-07-22
Post-COT OI VerdictPost-COT OI contracted; liquidation or roll pressure after the COT report.
Macro WatchChina Beef Export Access / TWO-SIDED / ACTIVE WATCH

EXECUTION / RISK

ExecutionUse contract leadership, OI, and macro confirmation before assigning strong direction.
Risk StatusMIXED / WAIT - NO STRONG CASH-ADJUSTED EDGE
No-Trade RuleNo-trade while cash is neutral/two-sided and contract leadership is not clean.
InvalidationMixed read resolves only after clean price acceptance with volume, OI, and live-flow confirmation.
Downside ConfirmationNeed clear August failure with volume/OI confirmation before trusting downside.

HARD-DATA CONTEXT

COT Index Date2026-07-21
MM Net COT Index 6M0.0%
MM Net COT Index 36M56.4%
MM Net COT Index 15YN/A
Producer Net COT Index 6M84.7%
Producer Net COT Index 36M40.9%
Producer Net COT Index 15YN/A
COT Index InterpretationCOT positioning is not enough by itself; use post-COT OI and price reaction to judge current participation.
COT Adjusted by Post-COT OICOT showed the Tuesday positioning snapshot, and post-COT daily OI contracted afterward. Post-COT OI gap is -7,612 through 2026-07-22. That supports liquidation or roll-pressure risk after the COT report.
COT RiskCOT Index: MM Net 6M 0.0% / 36M 56.4% / 15Y 64.5%; Producer Net 6M 84.7% / 36M 40.9% / 15Y 42.5%. COT Index: MM Net 6M 8.3% / 36M 74.7% / 15Y 79.4%; Producer Net 6M 62.8% / 36M 30.3% / 15Y 38.6%. COT Index: MM Net 6M 8.3% / 36M 74.7% / 15Y 79.4%; Producer Net 6M 62.8% / 36M 30.3% / 15Y 38.6%. COT Index: MM Net 6M 8.3% / 36M 74.7% / 15Y 79.4%; Producer Net 6M 62.8% / 36M 30.3% / 15Y 38.6%. COT Index: MM Net 6M 8.3% / 36M 74.7% / 15Y 79.4%; Producer Net 6M 62.8% / 36M 30.3% / 15Y 38.6%. COT Index: MM Net 6M 8.3% / 36M 74.7% / 15Y 79.4%; Producer Net 6M 62.8% / 36M 30.3% / 15Y 38.6%. COT Index: MM Net 6M 8.3% / 36M 74.7% / 15Y 79.4%; Producer Net 6M 62.8% / 36M 30.3% / 15Y 38.6%. COT Index: MM Net 6M 8.3% / 36M 74.7% / 15Y 79.4%; Producer Net 6M 62.8% / 36M 30.3% / 15Y 38.6%. COT Index: MM Net 6M 8.3% / 36M 74.7% / 15Y 79.4%; Producer Net 6M 62.8% / 36M 30.3% / 15Y 38.6%. COT Index: MM Net 6M 8.3% / 36M 74.7% / 15Y 79.4%; Producer Net 6M 62.8% / 36M 30.3% / 15Y 38.6%. COT Index: MM Net 6M 8.3% / 36M 74.7% / 15Y 79.4%; Producer Net 6M 62.8% / 36M 30.3% / 15Y 38.6%. COT Index: MM Net 6M 8.3% / 36M 74.7% / 15Y 79.4%; Producer Net 6M 62.8% / 36M 30.3% / 15Y 38.6%. COT Index: MM Net 6M 8.3% / 36M 74.7% / 15Y 79.4%; Producer Net 6M 62.8% / 36M 30.3% / 15Y 38.6%. COT Index: MM Net 6M 8.3% / 36M 74.7% / 15Y 79.4%; Producer Net 6M 62.8% / 36M 30.3% / 15Y 38.6%. COT Index: MM Net 6M 8.3% / 36M 74.7% / 15Y 79.4%; Producer Net 6M 62.8% / 36M 30.3% / 15Y 38.6%. COT Index: MM Net 6M 8.3% / 36M 74.7% / 15Y 79.4%; Producer Net 6M 62.8% / 36M 30.3% / 15Y 38.6%. COT Index: MM Net 6M 8.3% / 36M 74.7% / 15Y 79.4%; Producer Net 6M 62.8% / 36M 30.3% / 15Y 38.6%. COT Index: MM Net 6M 8.3% / 36M 74.7% / 15Y 79.4%; Producer Net 6M 62.8% / 36M 30.3% / 15Y 38.6%. COT Index: MM Net 6M 8.3% / 36M 74.7% / 15Y 79.4%; Producer Net 6M 62.8% / 36M 30.3% / 15Y 38.6%. COT Index: MM Net 6M 8.3% / 36M 74.7% / 15Y 79.4%; Producer Net 6M 62.8% / 36M 30.3% / 15Y 38.6%. COT Index: MM Net 6M 8.3% / 36M 74.7% / 15Y 79.4%; Producer Net 6M 62.8% / 36M 30.3% / 15Y 38.6%. COT Index: MM Net 6M 8.3% / 36M 74.7% / 15Y 79.4%; Producer Net 6M 62.8% / 36M 30.3% / 15Y 38.6%. COT Index: MM Net 6M 8.3% / 36M 74.7% / 15Y 79.4%; Producer Net 6M 62.8% / 36M 30.3% / 15Y 38.6%. COT Index: MM Net 6M 8.3% / 36M 74.7% / 15Y 79.4%; Producer Net 6M 62.8% / 36M 30.3% / 15Y 38.6%. COT Index: MM Net 6M 8.3% / 36M 74.7% / 15Y 79.4%; Producer Net 6M 62.8% / 36M 30.3% / 15Y 38.6%. COT Index: MM Net 6M 8.3% / 36M 74.7% / 15Y 79.4%; Producer Net 6M 62.8% / 36M 30.3% / 15Y 38.6%. COT Index: MM Net 6M 8.3% / 36M 74.7% / 15Y 79.4%; Producer Net 6M 62.8% / 36M 30.3% / 15Y 38.6%. COT Index: MM Net 6M 8.3% / 36M 74.7% / 15Y 79.4%; Producer Net 6M 62.8% / 36M 30.3% / 15Y 38.6%. COT Index: MM Net 6M 8.3% / 36M 74.7% / 15Y 79.4%; Producer Net 6M 62.8% / 36M 30.3% / 15Y 38.6%. COT Index: MM Net 6M 8.3% / 36M 74.7% / 15Y 79.4%; Producer Net 6M 62.8% / 36M 30.3% / 15Y 38.6%. COT Index: MM Net 6M 8.3% / 36M 74.7% / 15Y 79.4%; Producer Net 6M 62.8% / 36M 30.3% / 15Y 38.6%. COT Index: MM Net 6M 8.3% / 36M 74.7% / 15Y 79.4%; Producer Net 6M 62.8% / 36M 30.3% / 15Y 38.6%. COT Index: MM Net 6M 8.3% / 36M 74.7% / 15Y 79.4%; Producer Net 6M 62.8% / 36M 30.3% / 15Y 38.6%. COT Index: MM Net 6M 8.3% / 36M 74.7% / 15Y 79.4%; Producer Net 6M 62.8% / 36M 30.3% / 15Y 38.6%. COT Index: MM Net 6M 8.3% / 36M 74.7% / 15Y 79.4%; Producer Net 6M 62.8% / 36M 30.3% / 15Y 38.6%. COT Index: MM Net 6M 8.3% / 36M 74.7% / 15Y 79.4%; Producer Net 6M 62.8% / 36M 30.3% / 15Y 38.6%. COT Index: MM Net 6M 8.3% / 36M 74.7% / 15Y 79.4%; Producer Net 6M 62.8% / 36M 30.3% / 15Y 38.6%. COT Index: MM Net 6M 8.3% / 36M 74.7% / 15Y 79.4%; Producer Net 6M 62.8% / 36M 30.3% / 15Y 38.6%. COT Index: MM Net 6M 8.3% / 36M 74.7% / 15Y 79.4%; Producer Net 6M 62.8% / 36M 30.3% / 15Y 38.6%. COT Index: MM Net 6M 8.3% / 36M 74.7% / 15Y 79.4%; Producer Net 6M 62.8% / 36M 30.3% / 15Y 38.6%. COT Index: MM Net 6M 8.3% / 36M 74.7% / 15Y 79.4%; Producer Net 6M 62.8% / 36M 30.3% / 15Y 38.6%. COT Index: MM Net 6M 8.3% / 36M 74.7% / 15Y 79.4%; Producer Net 6M 62.8% / 36M 30.3% / 15Y 38.6%. COT Index: MM Net 6M 8.3% / 36M 74.7% / 15Y 79.4%; Producer Net 6M 62.8% / 36M 30.3% / 15Y 38.6%. COT Index: MM Net 6M 8.3% / 36M 74.7% / 15Y 79.4%; Producer Net 6M 62.8% / 36M 30.3% / 15Y 38.6%. COT Index: MM Net 6M 8.3% / 36M 74.7% / 15Y 79.4%; Producer Net 6M 62.8% / 36M 30.3% / 15Y 38.6%. COT Index: MM Net 6M 8.3% / 36M 74.7% / 15Y 79.4%; Producer Net 6M 62.8% / 36M 30.3% / 15Y 38.6%. COT Index: MM Net 6M 8.3% / 36M 74.7% / 15Y 79.4%; Producer Net 6M 62.8% / 36M 30.3% / 15Y 38.6%. COT Index: MM Net 6M 8.3% / 36M 74.7% / 15Y 79.4%; Producer Net 6M 62.8% / 36M 30.3% / 15Y 38.6%. COT Index: MM Net 6M 8.3% / 36M 74.7% / 15Y 79.4%; Producer Net 6M 62.8% / 36M 30.3% / 15Y 38.6%. COT Index: MM Net 6M 8.3% / 36M 74.7% / 15Y 79.4%; Producer Net 6M 62.8% / 36M 30.3% / 15Y 38.6%. COT Index: MM Net 6M 8.3% / 36M 74.7% / 15Y 79.4%; Producer Net 6M 62.8% / 36M 30.3% / 15Y 38.6%. COT Index: MM Net 6M 8.3% / 36M 74.7% / 15Y 79.4%; Producer Net 6M 62.8% / 36M 30.3% / 15Y 38.6%. COT Index: MM Net 6M 8.3% / 36M 74.7% / 15Y 79.4%; Producer Net 6M 62.8% / 36M 30.3% / 15Y 38.6%. COT Index: MM Net 6M 8.3% / 36M 74.7% / 15Y 79.4%; Producer Net 6M 62.8% / 36M 30.3% / 15Y 38.6%. COT Index: MM Net 6M 8.3% / 36M 74.7% / 15Y 79.4%; Producer Net 6M 62.8% / 36M 30.3% / 15Y 38.6%. COT Index: MM Net 6M 8.3% / 36M 74.7% / 15Y 79.4%; Producer Net 6M 62.8% / 36M 30.3% / 15Y 38.6%. COT Index: MM Net 6M 8.3% / 36M 74.7% / 15Y 79.4%; Producer Net 6M 62.8% / 36M 30.3% / 15Y 38.6%. COT Index: MM Net 6M 8.3% / 36M 74.7% / 15Y 79.4%; Producer Net 6M 62.8% / 36M 30.3% / 15Y 38.6%. COT Index: MM Net 6M 8.3% / 36M 74.7% / 15Y 79.4%; Producer Net 6M 62.8% / 36M 30.3% / 15Y 38.6%. COT Index: MM Net 6M 8.3% / 36M 74.7% / 15Y 79.4%; Producer Net 6M 62.8% / 36M 30.3% / 15Y 38.6%. COT Index: MM Net 6M 8.3% / 36M 74.7% / 15Y 79.4%; Producer Net 6M 62.8% / 36M 30.3% / 15Y 38.6%. COT showed the Tuesday positioning snapshot, and post-COT daily OI contracted afterward. Post-COT OI gap is -7,612 through 2026-07-22. That supports liquidation or roll-pressure risk after the COT report.
Production ContextKills lower WoW