Official Read: LIVE TRADE LAB AVAILABLE
Live Trade Status: ENABLED
Usable: True
Research Context: orb_research=PASS, open_interest=PASS, cot_positioning=PASS, boxed_beef=PASS, cash_cattle=PASS, cattle_on_feed=PASS, macro_watch=WATCH, august_retracement=PASS
Reason: Trade Lab is live-current. Research context remains separate background confirmation.
Last Refresh CT: 2026-06-09T08:46:46.778862-05:00
Signal: LC LIVE LEQ6 08:46 237.425 | FC LIVE FEED NOT WIRED
Symbol: LEQ6
Updated: 2026-06-09T08:46:02.076818-05:00 | Age Seconds: 44.5
Latest: 08:46 CT / 237.425
First 15 Complete: True
First 15 Side: DOWN
First 15 High / Low / Mid: 238.0 / 237.4 / 237.7
Control Line: WAIT_FOR_11_30
Score: 55 / BIAS_ONLY_WAITING
Action: Wait for 11:30 control-line check.
V9 Trap Watch: NO CANDIDATE / WAIT FOR LIVE ORB CANDIDATE
Status: UNAVAILABLE
Reason: No live Feeder Cattle ORB feed file is wired yet. Feeder card remains historical/research context until GF live bars are added.
This card reads the live-updating ORB model output. Historical Databento ORB research is kept separate and must not overwrite this live feed.
Usable: False
Last Refresh CT: 2026-06-09T08:48:02.423016-05:00
Signal: LC LIVE_TRAP_WATCH DOWN risk 54.2 | FC LIVE FEED NOT WIRED
Symbol: LEQ6
Updated: 2026-06-09T08:47:02.194316-05:00 | Age Seconds: 60.1
Latest: 08:47 CT / 237.775
First 15: DOWN | complete=True
High / Low / Mid: 238.0 / 237.4 / 237.7
Range: 24.0 ticks
Control Line: WAIT_FOR_11_30 / BIAS_ONLY_WAITING
Historical Trap Risk: 54.2
Confirms:
First 15m ORB is complete: DOWN bias, high 238.0, low 237.4, midpoint 237.7.
Risks / Guardrails:
No first-break chase. Live ORB must prove acceptance or failure.
Trap/reversal guard is waiting for return-inside, midpoint, opposite break, and 11:30/12:30 control-line confirmation.
Two-year Live Cattle base: trap 52.8%, reversal 36.0%.
Live first-15 side DOWN: historical trap 55.2%, reversal 38.2%.
Current first-15 range maps to Q1_SMALL: trap 54.6%, reversal 49.2%.
Status: UNAVAILABLE
Reason: No live Feeder Cattle ORB feed is wired yet. Feeder live trap/reversal guard will stay unavailable until GF live bars are added.
Live trap/reversal guard uses today's live ORB feed. It blocks first-break chasing and waits for confirmation instead of using yesterday's historical ORB as current.
Usable: False
Source: Databento exchange-published OI checked against the closed-day ORB setup
Last Refresh CT: 2026-06-09T07:56:41.972801-05:00
Signal: LC: LIQUIDATION / LONG EXIT (PARTIAL) | FC: LIQUIDATION / LONG EXIT (PARTIAL)
Current ORB: 2026-06-08 | DOWN | ACCEPTED FIRST BREAK | BELOW_ORB
Target OI Trade Date: 2026-06-08
Expected OI Publish: 2026-06-09 morning
Latest OI Trade Date: 2026-06-08
Contract: LEQ6 August 2026 Live Cattle
OI / OI Change: 137002.0 / -1957.0
Cleared Volume: 40292.0
Settle / Price Change: 236.725 / -4.925000000000011
Review: LIQUIDATION / LONG EXIT (PARTIAL)
Downside move lost open interest; bearish pressure happened, but may be liquidation instead of fresh shorts.
Current ORB: 2026-06-08 | DOWN | RE-ACCEPTED DOWNSIDE BREAK | BELOW_ORB
Target OI Trade Date: 2026-06-08
Expected OI Publish: 2026-06-09 morning
Latest OI Trade Date: 2026-06-08
Contract: GFQ6 August 2026 Feeder Cattle
OI / OI Change: 28925.0 / -639.0
Cleared Volume: 9750.0
Settle / Price Change: /
Review: LIQUIDATION / LONG EXIT (PARTIAL)
Downside move lost open interest; bearish pressure happened, but may be liquidation instead of fresh shorts.
Compares the current closed trading day's ORB read with the next-business-morning OI trade date. Before OI publishes, this card should stay pending.
Usable: False
Source: Databento GLBX.MDP3 ohlcv-1m continuous futures; next-trading-day historical research
Last Refresh CT: 2026-06-09T07:54:20.728768-05:00
Signal: LC: 4 historical downside samples; 50% next-day close continuation; 50% reversal close | FC: 20 historical downside samples; 60% next-day close continuation; 40% reversal close
Current Setup: 2026-06-08 | DOWN | ACCEPTED FIRST BREAK | BELOW_ORB
Cohort: exact_label_and_close_location
Samples: 4
Next-Day Close Continuation: 50%
Gap In Direction: 25%
Touched Follow-Through: 75%
Reversal Close: 50%
Avg / Median Close Pts: -0.562 / -0.012
Avg Fav / Adv Excursion: 2.9 / 2.013
| Setup | Next | Setup Label | Setup Close | Next Open | Next Close | Close Pts | Fav Pts | Adv Pts | Cont |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-13 | 2026-03-16 | ACCEPTED FIRST BREAK | 228.85 | 228.925 | 231.85 | -3.0 | 0.0 | 3.475 | False |
| 2026-04-16 | 2026-04-17 | ACCEPTED FIRST BREAK | 247.6 | 247.675 | 247.15 | 0.45 | 4.575 | 0.775 | True |
| 2026-05-08 | 2026-05-11 | ACCEPTED FIRST BREAK | 249.175 | 249.425 | 249.65 | -0.475 | 3.7 | 2.975 | False |
| 2026-05-21 | 2026-05-22 | ACCEPTED FIRST BREAK | 240.15 | 239.35 | 239.375 | 0.775 | 3.325 | 0.825 | True |
Current Setup: 2026-06-08 | DOWN | RE-ACCEPTED DOWNSIDE BREAK | BELOW_ORB
Cohort: exact_label_and_close_location
Samples: 20
Next-Day Close Continuation: 60%
Gap In Direction: 50%
Touched Follow-Through: 90%
Reversal Close: 40%
Avg / Median Close Pts: 0.705 / 1.663
Avg Fav / Adv Excursion: 3.851 / 3.041
| Setup | Next | Setup Label | Setup Close | Next Open | Next Close | Close Pts | Fav Pts | Adv Pts | Cont |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-04 | 2026-05-05 | RE-ACCEPTED DOWNSIDE BREAK | 366.975 | 367.75 | 372.225 | -5.25 | 0.0 | 6.3 | False |
| 2026-05-07 | 2026-05-08 | RE-ACCEPTED DOWNSIDE BREAK | 366.675 | 368.5 | 364.15 | 2.525 | 5.075 | 3.725 | True |
| 2026-05-11 | 2026-05-12 | RE-ACCEPTED DOWNSIDE BREAK | 362.45 | 365.0 | 356.0 | 6.45 | 6.55 | 5.05 | True |
| 2026-05-14 | 2026-05-15 | RE-ACCEPTED DOWNSIDE BREAK | 358.225 | 356.6 | 361.275 | -3.05 | 2.225 | 3.975 | False |
| 2026-05-18 | 2026-05-19 | RE-ACCEPTED DOWNSIDE BREAK | 358.775 | 357.5 | 363.85 | -5.075 | 1.55 | 5.35 | False |
| 2026-05-21 | 2026-05-22 | RE-ACCEPTED DOWNSIDE BREAK | 356.525 | 353.775 | 350.175 | 6.35 | 12.25 | 0.0 | True |
| 2026-05-22 | 2026-05-26 | RE-ACCEPTED DOWNSIDE BREAK | 350.175 | 348.7 | 349.375 | 0.8 | 2.775 | 3.2 | True |
| 2026-05-29 | 2026-06-01 | RE-ACCEPTED DOWNSIDE BREAK | 348.925 | 347.9 | 351.175 | -2.25 | 1.475 | 4.825 | False |
Historical next-trading-day behavior after days matching the current 15m ORB setup. This is research context only, not a standalone trade signal.
Usable: False
Last Refresh CT: 2026-06-09T11:27:19.487830-05:00
Signal: LC NEUTRAL adj -3 | FC MILD_SUPPORT adj 2
Side: SHORT
Base Score: 0
Context Adjustment: -3
Adjusted Research Score: 0
Promotion Blocked: False
Reason: Context is mixed or not strong enough to change confidence.
Confirms:
volatility_calendar: 08:30-08:45 CT is the highest-volatility bucket; ORB window choice is supported.
tick_behavior: Recent close distribution favors downside (55.0% down vs 45.0% up).
cot_positioning: Live Cattle MM remains heavily net long; bearish reads are liquidation-risk context.
tomorrow_oi: Tomorrow OI partially supports context: LIQUIDATION / LONG EXIT (PARTIAL)
Risks / Guardrails:
volatility_calendar: Current date is in a historically high-volatility month; widen risk and avoid chase.
volatility_calendar: Current date is in a historically high-volatility week-of-month; expect larger ORB and wider noise.
tick_behavior: Last-20 range expanded by 42.25 ticks vs prior 20; old stop/target assumptions are stale.
tick_behavior: ORB return/failure rate is high at 85.0%; no first-break chase.
next_day_history: Next-day historical cohort has only 4 samples; do not promote confidence from this.
cot_positioning: COT is weekly/lagging; use as positioning context, not a live trigger.
tomorrow_oi: OI confirmation is partial, not fresh-position expansion.
Side: SHORT
Base Score: 0
Context Adjustment: 2
Adjusted Research Score: 2
Promotion Blocked: False
Reason: Context modestly supports the base read.
Confirms:
volatility_calendar: 08:30-08:45 CT is the highest-volatility bucket; ORB window choice is supported.
tick_behavior: Recent ORB acceptance is elevated at 70.0%.
tick_behavior: Recent close distribution favors downside (60.0% down vs 40.0% up).
next_day_history: Next-day historical cohort has usable sample size (20).
next_day_history: Next-day continuation rate is supportive at 60.0%.
cot_positioning: Feeder Cattle gross MM short is historically meaningful (77.66 percentile), but not a standalone signal.
tomorrow_oi: Tomorrow OI partially supports context: LIQUIDATION / LONG EXIT (PARTIAL)
Risks / Guardrails:
volatility_calendar: Current date is in a historically high-volatility week-of-month; expect larger ORB and wider noise.
volatility_calendar: Current day-of-week is historically high-volatility; require acceptance instead of first-break chase.
tick_behavior: Last-20 range expanded by 83.05 ticks vs prior 20; old stop/target assumptions are stale.
tick_behavior: ORB return/failure rate is high at 85.0%; no first-break chase.
cot_positioning: COT is weekly/lagging; use as positioning context, not a live trigger.
tomorrow_oi: OI confirmation is partial, not fresh-position expansion.
Regime Context Guard converts research reports into guarded confidence/risk modifiers. It is intentionally not a standalone trade signal and cannot enable execution.
Usable: True
Source:
Latest Data CT:
Last Refresh CT:
Age Seconds:
Signal: DATABENTO PRO DATA FILES AVAILABLE
Bias: DATA QUALITY
Confidence: MEDIUM
Required Databento 1m/OI files are present. OI remains exchange-published lagging context, not live intraday confirmation.
Usable: False
Source:
Latest Data CT:
Last Refresh CT:
Age Seconds:
Signal: LC NONE 0/100 | FC NONE 0/100
Bias: SEPARATE MARKET RESEARCH READS
Confidence: LOW
Decision Engine V2 is active in research-only mode. Live Cattle: NONE score 0/100 (NO_DECISION). Feeder Cattle: NONE score 0/100 (NO_DECISION). Live trade remains disabled. OI is exchange-published next-business-morning context, so same-day execution cannot wait for intraday OI; execution needs live price/volume confirmation plus explicit approval.
Usable: False
Source:
Latest Data CT:
Last Refresh CT:
Age Seconds:
Signal: Execution gate blocked for LC and FC
Bias: RISK GATE
Confidence: LOW
No market passed execution gate. Live trade remains disabled.
Usable: True
Source:
Latest Data CT:
Last Refresh CT: 2026-05-25T14:06:29.085472-05:00
Age Seconds:
Signal: ORB RESEARCH READY — LIVE-SAFE MODEL AVAILABLE
Bias: NO-CHASE FIRST BREAK / 10:00 TRAP WARNING STRONGEST
Confidence: MEDIUM
Research Window: 2020-01-02 through 2026-05-22
Role: Research / warning only - not a live trade trigger.
Core Rule: No chase. Wait for close-back-inside, midpoint, opposite break, and curve confirmation.
Same-Bar Return: 97.4%
Close Back Inside: 92.5%
Midpoint Close Cross: 60.2%
Opposite Break: 37.5%
All 3 Same Break Side: 77.8%
Front/Back Diverged: 46.7%
Best Live-Safe Time: 10:00 CT
10:00 Trap Hit Rate: 82.9%
10:00 Continuation Hit: 71.6%
Labels: NO-CHASE FIRST BREAK, CONTINUATION WATCH, TRAP WARNING, FAILED DRIVE RISK, CURVE CONFIRMED, CURVE DIVERGENCE / WATCH ONLY, INCOMPLETE SETUP
ORB research is wired into Alpha Current as a research and warning layer only. It does not enable live trade by itself. Full-day RF is research-only; live-safe RF with curve is the current warning layer.
Usable: True
Source: /opt/alpha/data/databento_live_cattle_open_interest_latest.csv
Latest Data CT: 2026-06-08
Last Refresh CT: 2026-06-09T11:15:01.458921-05:00
Age Seconds:
Signal: LEQ6 OI 137003.0 change -1956.0 | LEM6 OI 17054.0 change -4810.0
Bias: PRIOR-DAY PARTICIPATION CONTEXT
Confidence: MEDIUM
Latest OI Date: 2026-06-08
Total OI: 322217.0
Total OI Change: -7622.0
| Symbol | Contract | OI | 1D | 3D | 5D | 10D | 20D | Vol | Settle | Settle Chg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEM6 | June 2026 Live Cattle | 17054.0 | -4810.0 | -14773.0 | -20917.0 | -28107.0 | -91060.0 | 9364.0 | 246.525 | -3.549999999999983 |
| LEQ6 | August 2026 Live Cattle | 137003.0 | -1956.0 | -3124.0 | -3381.0 | -3123.0 | 37167.0 | 40292.0 | 236.725 | -4.925000000000011 |
| LEV6 | October 2026 Live Cattle | 74808.0 | -1419.0 | -1274.0 | -416.0 | -1450.0 | 1008.0 | 19823.0 | 229.35 | -4.775000000000006 |
| LEZ6 | December 2026 Live Cattle | 50606.0 | 135.0 | -6.0 | 1268.0 | -708.0 | 5536.0 | 14581.0 | 229.575 | -4.100000000000023 |
| LEG7 | February 2027 Live Cattle | 24833.0 | 388.0 | -253.0 | -216.0 | -500.0 | 3683.0 | 5074.0 | 230.4 | -3.5999999999999943 |
| LEJ7 | April 2027 Live Cattle | 12416.0 | 18.0 | 426.0 | 799.0 | 1055.0 | 2480.0 | 2570.0 | 230.15 | -3.299999999999983 |
| LEM7 | June 2027 Live Cattle | 4126.0 | 24.0 | 9.0 | -34.0 | 103.0 | 408.0 | 285.0 | 223.775 | -3.1999999999999886 |
| LEQ7 | August 2027 Live Cattle | 1371.0 | -2.0 | 87.0 | 59.0 | 143.0 | 174.0 | 43.0 | 220.725 | -2.9000000000000057 |
Latest OI trade_date is 2026-06-08. Latest available prior-day OI context is current. This module is background only and cannot confirm today's intraday move live.