Alpha Current | Kill Capacity

Latest full year

2025

Full-year USDA weekly observations

2025 p95 weekly kill

601,500

Head/week, FI cattle GE 500 lbs

2025 p95 daily equiv.

120,300

Weekly p95 divided by 5 days

2026 YTD p95 daily equiv.

111,142

Partial year / YTD

USDA Daily Kill

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Today cattle

vs Alpha proxy --

Week to date

vs year ago --

YTD cattle

Report

Capacity definition: this page uses observed effective capacity, not proprietary plant nameplate capacity. The proxy is annual 95th-percentile weekly federally inspected cattle slaughter for cattle GE 500 lbs. Daily equivalent divides weekly head by five operating days.

Download workbook Annual CSV Regime CSV

Shift Regimes

Regime	p95 weekly head	Daily equiv.	Change vs prior	Read
2001-2003	735,955	147,191		Early-2000s high run-rate
2004-2013	681,205	136,241	-10,950	Lower but stable mid-cycle
2014-2016	601,675	120,335	-15,906	Tightest cattle-supply phase
2017-2022	664,388	132,878	+12,543	Post-herd rebuild recovery
2023-2025	625,363	125,073	-7,805	Current contraction

Annual Movement

Year	Weeks	Avg weekly	p95 weekly	p95 daily equiv.	p95 YoY head	p95 YoY %	p95 minus avg	Completeness
2001	52	666,998	720,955	144,191			53,957	full year
2002	52	672,688	726,870	145,374	+5,915	0.8%	54,182	full year
2003	53	665,492	760,040	152,008	+33,170	4.6%	94,548	full year
2004	52	615,727	688,845	137,769	-71,195	-9.4%	73,118	full year
2005	52	612,150	661,850	132,370	-26,995	-3.9%	49,700	full year
2006	52	637,400	707,380	141,476	+45,530	6.9%	69,980	full year
2007	52	646,485	702,960	140,592	-4,420	-0.6%	56,475	full year
2008	53	642,945	711,440	142,288	+8,480	1.2%	68,495	full year
2009	52	627,900	671,690	134,338	-39,750	-5.6%	43,790	full year
2010	52	647,108	681,045	136,209	+9,355	1.4%	33,937	full year
2011	52	645,277	679,690	135,938	-1,355	-0.2%	34,413	full year
2012	52	621,962	653,670	130,734	-26,020	-3.8%	31,708	full year
2013	52	611,446	653,480	130,696	-190	-0.0%	42,034	full year
2014	53	567,017	611,300	122,260	-42,180	-6.5%	44,283	full year
2015	52	542,460	579,065	115,813	-32,235	-5.3%	36,605	full year
2016	52	578,258	614,660	122,932	+35,595	6.1%	36,402	full year
2017	52	609,673	645,425	129,085	+30,765	5.0%	35,752	full year
2018	52	623,892	660,515	132,103	+15,090	2.3%	36,623	full year
2019	52	633,187	669,695	133,939	+9,180	1.4%	36,508	full year
2020	53	612,070	665,640	133,128	-4,055	-0.6%	53,570	full year
2021	52	636,863	671,200	134,240	+5,560	0.8%	34,337	full year
2022	52	647,433	673,855	134,771	+2,655	0.4%	26,422	full year
2023	52	619,865	650,095	130,019	-23,760	-3.5%	30,230	full year
2024	52	596,835	624,495	124,899	-25,600	-3.9%	27,660	full year
2025	53	558,762	601,500	120,300	-22,995	-3.7%	42,738	full year
2026	27	524,389	555,710	111,142	-45,790	-7.6%	31,321	partial year/YTD

Event Notes

Date	Type	Event	Reported impact	How to read it	Source
2014-2016	Cattle supply	Tight cattle supplies pulled observed kill capacity to cycle lows.	p95 daily equivalent averaged about 120k head/day.	Visible directly in the USDA throughput series.	USDA/NASS QuickStats
Aug. 2019	Plant shock	Tyson Holcomb, Kansas fire	Reportedly about 6% of U.S. beef slaughter at the time; roughly four-month shutdown.	Temporary shock; annual p95 stayed high because much of 2019 ran before/around the disruption.	TIME
2020	Labor/health shock	COVID-19 meatpacking disruptions	Closures and disruptions hit slaughter/processing capacity.	Annual average dropped more than p95, showing disrupted weeks rather than a permanent nameplate cut.	TIME
Jan. 2026	Plant/shift change	Tyson Lexington closure and Amarillo shift cut	AP reported Lexington capacity around 5,000 head/day; combined moves reduce U.S. beef processing capacity by about 7-9%.	Forward/current structural capacity reduction, only partly visible in 2026 YTD data.	Associated Press