Freshness: Rainfall period 2026-03. Official national on-feed is from the current COF report. State on-feed overlay uses QuickStats state rows, with year/period shown by state in table and hover.
MAP LAYER
Map key:
Large orange bubbles = total cattle herd.
Blue bubbles = state feedlot exposure.
State color = rainfall % normal. Hover state/bubble for full cattle and drought detail. Official national on-feed head count is shown in the headline card.
Total Herd Size
86.2M head
US state total
Official National Cattle On Feed
11.7M head
As of 2026-06-01 | USDA monthly Cattle on Feed report
State overlay sum: 12.8M, mixed state periods
Total Beef Cow Herd
27.7M head
State QuickStats
Total Calf Crop
32.9M head
State QuickStats
Model Formula
35% herd + 35% on feed + 30% droughtNo black box. Hover shows source dates.
MODEL READ
BULLISH TIGHT-SUPPLY STRESS
Texas is the main stress driver: stress 75.5, rainfall 86.8% normal, herd 12.10M, on feed 2.56M, cow herd 4.045M, calf crop 4.250M.
Trade meaning: Drought stress is concentrated in a major cattle state with large herd and feedlot exposure. That supports feedlot/cash leverage and argues against pressing shorts unless futures reject resistance or open interest confirms liquidation.
Watch item: If dryness expands across cow-calf states while slaughter/cow kill rises, downgrade tight-supply support and flag potential forced movement.
TOP STRESSED CATTLE STATES
- Texas — stress 75.5, rainfall 86.8% normal, herd 12.10M, on feed 2.56M, cow herd 4.045M, calf crop 4.250M
- Nebraska — stress 54.4, rainfall 96.7% normal, herd 6.15M, on feed 2.64M, cow herd 1.560M, calf crop 1.500M
- Kansas — stress 48.2, rainfall 102.3% normal, herd 5.85M, on feed 2.36M, cow herd 1.145M, calf crop 1.230M
- Colorado — stress 27.4, rainfall 84.2% normal, herd 2.55M, on feed 0.92M, cow herd 0.620M, calf crop 0.750M
- California — stress 25.4, rainfall 91.8% normal, herd 5.05M, on feed 0.51M, cow herd 0.640M, calf crop 1.900M
- Iowa — stress 22.2, rainfall 93.8% normal, herd 3.45M, on feed 0.69M, cow herd 0.815M, calf crop 1.000M
- Missouri — stress 18.0, rainfall 88.7% normal, herd 3.85M, on feed 0.09M, cow herd 1.806M, calf crop 1.740M
- Oklahoma — stress 17.9, rainfall 106.9% normal, herd 4.65M, on feed 0.34M, cow herd 1.966M, calf crop 1.840M
STATE-LEVEL CATTLE / DROUGHT TABLE
| State | Rain % Normal | Category | Stress |
Herd M | Herd Year | On Feed M | On Feed Period | On Feed Year |
Cow Herd | Calf Crop |
| Texas |
86.8% |
Dry |
75.5 |
12.10 |
2026 |
2.56 |
FIRST OF APR |
2026 |
4.045 |
4.250 |
| Nebraska |
96.7% |
Near normal |
54.4 |
6.15 |
2026 |
2.64 |
FIRST OF APR |
2026 |
1.560 |
1.500 |
| Kansas |
102.3% |
Near normal |
48.2 |
5.85 |
2026 |
2.36 |
FIRST OF APR |
2026 |
1.145 |
1.230 |
| Colorado |
84.2% |
Dry |
27.4 |
2.55 |
2026 |
0.92 |
FIRST OF APR |
2026 |
0.620 |
0.750 |
| California |
91.8% |
Near normal |
25.4 |
5.05 |
2026 |
0.51 |
FIRST OF APR |
2026 |
0.640 |
1.900 |
| Iowa |
93.8% |
Near normal |
22.2 |
3.45 |
2026 |
0.69 |
FIRST OF APR |
2026 |
0.815 |
1.000 |
| Missouri |
88.7% |
Dry |
18.0 |
3.85 |
2026 |
0.09 |
FIRST OF JAN |
2024 |
1.806 |
1.740 |
| Oklahoma |
106.9% |
Above normal |
17.9 |
4.65 |
2026 |
0.34 |
FIRST OF APR |
2026 |
1.966 |
1.840 |
| Idaho |
88.4% |
Dry |
17.8 |
2.50 |
2026 |
0.35 |
FIRST OF APR |
2026 |
0.435 |
0.970 |
| Wisconsin |
91.6% |
Near normal |
16.8 |
3.25 |
2026 |
0.24 |
FIRST OF JAN |
2026 |
0.275 |
1.370 |
| Florida |
77.3% |
Dry |
16.0 |
1.58 |
2026 |
0.00 |
END OF DEC |
2007 |
0.872 |
0.780 |
| Utah |
72.9% |
Dry |
16.0 |
0.76 |
2026 |
0.02 |
FIRST OF JAN |
2024 |
0.336 |
0.365 |
| Oregon |
75.4% |
Dry |
15.8 |
1.21 |
2026 |
0.00 |
END OF DEC |
2022 |
0.500 |
0.560 |
| Minnesota |
91.7% |
Near normal |
14.8 |
2.10 |
2026 |
0.35 |
FIRST OF JAN |
2026 |
0.355 |
0.750 |
| Illinois |
83.4% |
Dry |
14.0 |
0.98 |
2026 |
0.22 |
FIRST OF JAN |
2026 |
0.324 |
0.340 |
| South Dakota |
107.3% |
Above normal |
13.5 |
3.55 |
2026 |
0.24 |
FIRST OF APR |
2026 |
1.450 |
1.570 |
| Louisiana |
80.3% |
Dry |
11.8 |
0.68 |
2026 |
0.00 |
FIRST OF JAN |
1998 |
0.428 |
0.320 |
| Arizona |
87.8% |
Dry |
11.6 |
0.87 |
2026 |
0.23 |
FIRST OF APR |
2026 |
0.160 |
0.265 |
| Georgia |
83.1% |
Dry |
11.3 |
0.97 |
2026 |
0.00 |
END OF DEC |
2007 |
0.441 |
0.480 |
| Tennessee |
86.7% |
Dry |
11.2 |
1.56 |
2026 |
0.00 |
END OF DEC |
2022 |
0.818 |
0.800 |
| Mississippi |
82.7% |
Dry |
11.0 |
0.80 |
2026 |
0.00 |
FIRST OF JAN |
1998 |
0.424 |
0.345 |
| Hawaii |
79.4% |
Dry |
10.7 |
0.14 |
2026 |
0.00 |
END OF DEC |
2007 |
0.080 |
0.060 |
| Maine |
79.7% |
Dry |
10.4 |
0.07 |
2026 |
0.00 |
END OF DEC |
2022 |
0.012 |
0.026 |
| New Hampshire |
80.0% |
Dry |
10.1 |
0.03 |
2026 |
0.00 |
END OF DEC |
2022 |
0.004 |
0.011 |
| North Carolina |
84.5% |
Dry |
9.8 |
0.69 |
2026 |
0.00 |
END OF DEC |
2022 |
0.352 |
0.325 |
| Nevada |
83.2% |
Dry |
9.7 |
0.42 |
2026 |
0.00 |
FIRST OF JAN |
2024 |
0.235 |
0.210 |
| Arkansas |
90.0% |
Dry |
9.5 |
1.56 |
2026 |
0.00 |
END OF DEC |
2012 |
0.848 |
0.740 |
| Wyoming |
89.9% |
Dry |
9.4 |
1.16 |
2026 |
0.07 |
FIRST OF JAN |
2024 |
0.621 |
0.590 |
| Alabama |
88.3% |
Dry |
9.3 |
1.20 |
2026 |
0.00 |
END OF DEC |
2007 |
0.648 |
0.570 |
| Virginia |
89.5% |
Dry |
9.2 |
1.32 |
2026 |
0.01 |
FIRST OF JAN |
2024 |
0.575 |
0.590 |
| Washington |
95.5% |
Near normal |
9.1 |
1.12 |
2026 |
0.27 |
FIRST OF APR |
2026 |
0.220 |
0.395 |
| New Jersey |
82.3% |
Dry |
8.9 |
0.02 |
2026 |
0.00 |
END OF DEC |
2022 |
0.009 |
0.009 |
| Delaware |
82.3% |
Dry |
8.9 |
0.01 |
2026 |
0.00 |
END OF DEC |
2017 |
0.002 |
0.004 |
| Pennsylvania |
93.8% |
Near normal |
8.2 |
1.40 |
2026 |
0.09 |
FIRST OF JAN |
2024 |
0.205 |
0.530 |
| Maryland |
84.6% |
Dry |
8.2 |
0.15 |
2026 |
0.01 |
FIRST OF JAN |
2024 |
0.045 |
0.061 |
| Ohio |
95.9% |
Near normal |
7.7 |
1.23 |
2026 |
0.16 |
FIRST OF JAN |
2026 |
0.275 |
0.465 |
| South Carolina |
86.8% |
Dry |
7.4 |
0.28 |
2026 |
0.00 |
END OF DEC |
2007 |
0.148 |
0.125 |
| Indiana |
92.3% |
Near normal |
7.4 |
0.82 |
2026 |
0.09 |
FIRST OF JAN |
2024 |
0.180 |
0.345 |
| New York |
94.7% |
Near normal |
7.0 |
1.39 |
2026 |
0.02 |
FIRST OF JAN |
2024 |
0.100 |
0.550 |
| Kentucky |
97.4% |
Near normal |
6.8 |
1.82 |
2026 |
0.02 |
FIRST OF JAN |
2024 |
0.862 |
0.860 |
| Montana |
102.6% |
Near normal |
6.7 |
2.14 |
2026 |
0.04 |
FIRST OF JAN |
2024 |
1.232 |
1.210 |
| Massachusetts |
87.0% |
Dry |
6.6 |
0.03 |
2026 |
0.00 |
END OF DEC |
2022 |
0.005 |
0.012 |
| Vermont |
88.2% |
Dry |
6.5 |
0.22 |
2026 |
0.00 |
END OF DEC |
2022 |
0.011 |
0.096 |
| Connecticut |
87.3% |
Dry |
6.5 |
0.04 |
2026 |
0.00 |
END OF DEC |
2022 |
0.005 |
0.017 |
| New Mexico |
95.4% |
Near normal |
6.3 |
1.19 |
2026 |
0.05 |
END OF DEC |
2022 |
0.430 |
0.520 |
| Michigan |
98.3% |
Near normal |
5.9 |
1.12 |
2026 |
0.14 |
FIRST OF JAN |
2026 |
0.100 |
0.400 |
| West Virginia |
90.9% |
Near normal |
5.6 |
0.36 |
2026 |
0.00 |
FIRST OF JAN |
2024 |
0.188 |
0.183 |
| North Dakota |
107.0% |
Above normal |
5.6 |
1.73 |
2026 |
0.04 |
FIRST OF JAN |
2024 |
0.891 |
0.860 |
| Rhode Island |
92.3% |
Near normal |
3.9 |
0.00 |
2026 |
0.00 |
END OF DEC |
2022 |
0.001 |
0.002 |
| Alaska |
101.1% |
Near normal |
0.1 |
0.02 |
2026 |
0.00 |
END OF DEC |
2022 |
0.008 |
0.006 |