Supports cash/feedlot leverage and argues against pressing shorts unless futures reject resistance or OI confirms liquidation.
The historical charts support the tight-supply read. Weekly slaughter and beef production trends are not expanding, while cow, beef-cow, and heifer slaughter trends remain lower. That supports cash/feedlot leverage unless futures reject resistance or open interest confirms liquidation.
Historical chart gap detected: 2025-09-27 to 2026-05-16 (231 calendar days). The current SJ_LS712 report is loaded, but some intervening weekly history is still missing. Treat the latest current read as valid, but do not treat the line across the gap as continuous weekly data.
| Date | Slaughter | Slaughter WoW | Slaughter YoY % | Beef Prod | Prod WoW | Prod YoY % | Live Wt | Dressed Wt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | 525,000 | -4,000 | -7.41% | 464.5 | -4.6 | -5.05% | 1,448 | 887 |
| 2026-07-10 | 529,000 | +71,000 | -7.52% | 469.1 | +61.9 | -5.08% | 1,450 | 889 |
| 2026-07-03 | 458,000 | -79,000 | -3.38% | 407.2 | -70.4 | -0.56% | 1,455 | 891 |
| 2026-06-26 | 537,000 | +11,000 | +2.09% | 477.6 | +8.0 | -1.32% | 1,457 | 891 |
| 2026-06-20 | 526,000 | +2,000 | -5.73% | 469.6 | +0.7 | -3.04% | 1,463 | 895 |
| 2026-06-19 | 526,000 | +2,000 | -5.73% | 469.6 | +0.7 | -3.04% | 1,463 | 895 |
| 2026-06-12 | 524,000 | -9,000 | +13.91% | 468.9 | -10.2 | -2.82% | 1,465 | 897 |
| 2026-06-05 | 533,000 | +85,000 | -8.26% | 479.1 | +76.6 | -4.33% | 1,470 | 901 |
| 2026-05-29 | 448,000 | -84,000 | -8.20% | 402.5 | -75.5 | -4.89% | 1,469 | 900 |
| 2026-05-23 | 528,000 | -7,000 | -8.33% | 474.4 | -6.0 | -5.40% | 1,469 | 901 |
| 2026-05-16 | 535,000 | +8,000 | -5.48% | 480.4 | +6.6 | -2.34% | 1,468 | 900 |
| 2026-05-15 | 535,000 | +8,000 | -5.48% | 480.4 | +6.6 | -2.34% | 1,468 | 900 |
| 2026-05-08 | 527,000 | -7,000 | -6.06% | 473.8 | -6.6 | -2.99% | 1,471 | 901 |
| 2026-05-01 | 534,000 | +5,000 | -5.15% | 480.4 | +4.5 | -1.78% | 1,472 | 901 |
| 2025-09-27 | 555,000 | +3,000 | -10.05% | 485.4 | +3.7 | -8.38% | 1,428 | 877 |
| 2025-09-20 | 552,000 | -13,000 | -10.10% | 481.7 | -9.2 | -8.91% | 1,422 | 875 |
| 2025-09-13 | 561,000 | +74,000 | -10.10% | 487.4 | +65.7 | -9.30% | 1,417 | 871 |
| 2025-09-06 | 487,000 | -78,000 | -11.13% | 421.7 | -66.7 | -10.26% | 1,415 | 868 |
| 2025-08-30 | 565,000 | +14,000 | -8.43% | 488.4 | +12.3 | -6.86% | 1,415 | 866 |
| 2025-08-23 | 547,000 | +17,000 | -10.18% | 472.6 | +15.0 | -8.82% | 1,415 | 866 |
| Date | Cow Slaughter | Cow YoY % | Beef Cow | Heifer | Fed Cattle | Heifer % Fed | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | 87,200 | +16.73% | 37,700 | 151,900 | 525,900 | 35.21% | Liquidation pressure |
| 2026-07-04 | 82,200 | -6.80% | 37,100 | 130,700 | 461,600 | 35.20% | Rebuild signal |
| 2026-06-27 | 90,200 | +1.69% | 41,000 | 159,900 | 535,700 | 36.67% | Mixed / neutral |
| 2026-06-20 | 88,300 | -4.75% | 41,000 | 148,200 | 525,600 | 34.64% | Rebuild signal |
| 2026-06-13 | 89,600 | -6.57% | 42,900 | 157,800 | 526,900 | 36.85% | Rebuild signal |
| 2026-06-06 | 89,600 | +8.34% | 42,600 | 159,600 | 534,600 | 36.62% | Liquidation pressure |
| 2026-05-30 | 80,800 | -16.62% | 36,300 | 132,200 | 451,300 | 36.37% | Rebuild signal |
| 2026-05-23 | 87,800 | -4.77% | 41,900 | 160,200 | 535,800 | 36.43% | Rebuild signal |
| 2026-05-16 | 87,100 | -5.74% | 42,500 | 171,300 | 528,300 | 39.59% | Rebuild signal |
| 2026-05-09 | 88,500 | -1.67% | 41,700 | 166,500 | 525,200 | 38.88% | Mixed / neutral |
| 2026-05-02 | 86,600 | -9.41% | 39,500 | 175,400 | 531,000 | 40.21% | Replacement retention weak |
| 2026-04-25 | 88,100 | -4.45% | 40,000 | 174,700 | 524,500 | 40.81% | Rebuild signal |
Data freshness guardrail: weekly kill/production data and cow/heifer slaughter data update on different schedules. Alpha must label each date separately and should not treat older cow/heifer history as current weekly kill confirmation.